Kasimir

How does the Tuzu B nib work, by the way? Looks like a good choice, tbf!

Sorry, gotta pass. Still in the grind. Edited to add: Spreadsheet has been updated FWIW.

Thanks for running this Araris! Sorry for the late, back on the conference grind again.

That's FFA world. We sit around and a different person gets the NK each night, in which case I don't mind getting shot tonight. I'm basing this off the notion that: 1. We know that Coffee flipped Village, which was the point I started to take more seriously the scenario clues: From: To recap, you are most likely Village and received the unique clue for S2. Coffee flipped Village and received a clue that points to S2/S3. Spirit claimed a clue for S3. Aeo didn't explore, and I think Lego claimed to have found nothing. I RBed Elan. Even if we say there's a 1/3 chance of error, there's a 2/3 chance of it being correct and you and Coffee converged on S2. 2. Against S3 (Kandra): I am slightly of the view that I can't really figure out Sart's kill MO as he often approaches things slightly differently from me, but in kandra world, Sart has to be kandra #1, and he...doesn't really play aggro baity Village risk as his opener in that world. He tends to take a more subdued approach when Elim IMO and kandra would be a glorified SK making me think of his Hoid play as well. Suppose anyway that he's kandra - ok, I think it would probably need to be in <Aeo, Aet, Elan, Silvereye> because I know it wasn't me, and also the risk of picking a new(er) player is that the behaviour change with the doc is a little stronger. 3. Against S1 (Elims): I've felt that Lego's posts tonight aren't really the sort of thing I expect E!Lego to put out without a team plan, and I note they're more direct than I'd expect from a new(er) E!player. (Some newer players do that, true - we've had that conversation before in Drake's QF, but it's worth pointing out there has to be a specific profile and I'm not fully sure it's ticked here.) This kind of drops my PoE to just Silver and one in <Elan, Lego, Spirit> (I'm forced to go back because my lower tier has been emptied.) This isn't really against this, but it's a pool I feel lukewarm about. 4. So I put out a bait post to see if I could attract Smoking Gun claims, reasoning an Elim mightn't try it but a kandra might. Honestly very 'hit hive with stick and see what happens next' kind of deal. Can say the results seem to point to a Gun existing as the claimants don't make a coherent team and I don't think a kandra can coordinate across people. If there's a Gun, we're in S2. There's probably a world in which I out the gun claimants but if it's FFA, my investment in the outcome drops, in which case, meh. Edited to add: My bad - I meant Spirit claimed a clue for S1/S3, so our one unique is for S2. Edited to add 2: To put the point a tad more strongly, you and Coffee converged on S2. Our main evidence for S1 and S3 comes from the same player.

I kinda think we're in S2 now. My post might've been bait and I'm trying to read the responses I got.

About that...

To Sart's killer: You know what you did. PM me.

@Elandera ty for answering - couldn't get back on in time. Going to put in an explore order tonight. Waiting on a clarification.

Got ninjaed so c/ping and continuing. Priority focus read: Fair enough, I'm willing to accept this. Don't think it's relevant here since it was mostly my trying to work through the odds of a you-Elan team given I RBed Elan. On further thought, I like Aet's argument. Depends on the OG Kandra's strategy IMO. OG Kandra can afford to play risky but would likely aim to appear Village, knowing they would die and need to be explainable as a kill. It's cheap to do those things because they affect no one and need not deal with the consequences the next day, and it doesn't hurt them in a RB/protect world significantly. They are less likely to be roleblocked as well if they look Villagery af. D1 especially, a lone Kandra has zero teammates to protect and can afford to let the Village screw things up. It's generally easier to hide in a low tempo D1 anyway because if the Village isn't doing anything much, there's just zero pressure. That being said, I don't consider Sart's D1 to be really kandra consistent due to his attracting controversy deliberately. But that's a weak point. All potential results are listed. I felt a little concerned at the timing of Coffee's result, given Coffee has had minimal thread input or exe input. I'm eliminating it if only because I don't personally care to play a FFA game and it doesn't matter to me if I lose in S2 therefore. Our problem with FFA in a nutshell is that in S2, the last two or fewer players standing win. In a way, it's better for the Elims/Kandra if we regard S2 as live/pertinent because then we are motivated to prioritise personal survival over Elim hunting. On the assumption Sart didn't shoot himself, 2/8 players currently know we're in S2 in an S2 world, so give it one more cycle and we might hit 3/6, which more or less means those players might be PMing each other to make alliances or what. Ehhhh. I've not played FFAs and have no motivation for it. Cool, thanks. I'm guessing 1 of each role then rather than more. Don't suppose you'd care to give us those counts too? All the more reason I don't want to vote her today. The new is the confounding factor here in general and I can't answer this because I struggle with reading new players which is the root of my troubles with Spirit. But I guess that's a good question because that's the meat of my Spirit problems here. I don't feel it's useful to answer in the abstract so I'll draw it back to Spirit and to a lesser extent, Lego. I'm trying to figure out if both of them are being more quiet because they are struggling to solve (new Villager; lacks a mental model of how to play the game, so kind of just vibing and lost), or because they don't really have an interest and haven't needed to blend (new Elim; potentially can't simulate solving + low thread tempo means no real incentive to.) Anyway. -Re-reading D1, my memory of Spirit is wrong: The evidence bit comes later: I'm sort of willing to blink and see V!Spirit I guess? Maybe? Spirit does water the vote down by saying it's not really guilt-making, but asking for advice or help feels a bit like something Spirit maybe wouldn't do if Evil or doing a FNG play. -Lego goes onto TUN and then hops off: Changing to a no vote in orange is weird. I guess it does depend on what Lego's last game was, but 'pass' is also just strange and kind of makes me feel like it's not the sort of thing that shows up with a doc. Acknowledge this is weak as some players are just not very doc present. However, Lego's jumping back today just doesn't seem to come from the same player: Ah soddit I need sleep. No: <Aet, Aeo, Elan, Spirit> I Guess? <Lego, Coffee, Silvereye> I still don't know what bugs me about Silvereye's post today wrt the sudden Sart rejoinder. I guess I'll probably finalvote either Coffee or Silvereye.

Coffee No time to catch up on anything but let's try this.

@Lord Spirit Apologies, got ninjaed by Coffee. Maybe this way of explaining is better: -New players who talk about finding evidence and who are shy of exeing anyone D1 are a logically coherent set. Their fixation on evidence comes from the same mindset that there isn't enough to go off and they emphasise this by wanting certainty. -Some new players do just push people D1. Thinking of Bookwyrm, Cinnamon, and a whole lot of people in that game. But comfort with that also precludes evidence talk. -In your case, you talked about evidence D1 but also that people could talk you out of it. This comes across as being committed but also potentially uncommitted, as though you knew TUO might flip green. Then in reaction to sus, you go back to talking about solid evidence and hesitating. This is what I mean by "there's another way to join the dots." I absolutely think it could be new player things but I'm trying to understand where this fits together in a mindset. Ngl sudden urge for a cheeky Coffee vote I think that's dependent on the role distro. RB is very weak so I've actually been assuming there are probably more out there. This was always going to be a shorter game and I prefer to assume the larger end compared to being the smaller end. I am going to refuse to further engage with anyone who wants to tell me how to approach this—bluntly put, I did not sign up for a MU game and this is the third time I'm being told by players this isn't how it's done on the basis of MU meta. I couldn't care less and it's the sort of thing that reminds me why I prefer to prioritise RL over playing here.

You never left the bleh space. All your posts felt like blatantly lukewarm things that an Elim would say. I saw zero interest in solving. The other issue is that if I assume at least one Elim voted D1, your vote is in the place for it, with Aet just coming across as more Village than you, and it matches your sidetrain patterns. Agreed on the statistical. I'm not so much mad at you as trying to understand the mentality that regards the TUN thing as evidence, is willing to exe, but also wants solid evidence. I agree you're new so I don't want to go after you for new player things but this is also...kind of unusual as a new player combination. My concern I suppose is that the other way of joining the dots is to say that you joined a standard D1 vote on TUN, overstated the conviction, and are now more concerned with how you appear. I agree the big issue for me is really just that I don't have a good basis for figuring you out so I'm trying to. Cool, then we disagree about gamesolving approach. It's wonderful that SE allows for more approaches than just MU consensus! I think they could easily invent something. One thing to note is Elims do tend to overcomply with perceived Village plans. Unsure whether Aeo gets credit for just saying she CBF or not. But all I'm saying is that statistically, I expect Elims to be less interested in scenario solving and more likely to forget because it just doesn't carry the same weight for them as it does for us. @Araris Valerian Who are on inactivity death row? I'm not against pressure on under the radar players but I also don't want to waste time voting on someone who will get PH out or filter killed. Silvereye pushing back against Elan today is a little interesting and I can't figure why. I am trying to understand what motivates that para about claiming.

Yeah to be clear I figured you'd RP claim it, I just wanted to see if you'd say it even if I didn't. There are probably weak implications about your actions here as I think an Elim is more likely to neglect exploration. I just don't think they are strong. Have no issue with RP parsing. Just don't have the mental stamina to RP, play, and conference simultaneously.

Was wondering if you'd claim it and was part of my reason for favouring Aeo over you as my opening vote today. I flipped a coin between you and Aeo and RBed you. EDIT: Still gotta conference today but I'll try to have time for one more catch up. -Spirit's clue does point to S1/S3 though it's inconclusive. @Lord Spirit are you claiming an Aviar btw? -A lot of people are failing the 80% exploration chance. A bit weird and makes me wonder if someone is lying. -My getting the RB did make me wonder if this was an S2 world since I explored the basement. But I also don't care about S2 so... -I don't take Elan's RB to indicative she can't be Evil but I take it to indicate she wasn't the kill submitter last Night so with other things equal to me, I'd favour Aeo. -Spirit once again hedging on solid evidence is noteworthy and I'm willing to consider a cheeky Spirit vote. -I kind of feel it's weird to have Aeo submit a kill over Elan which goes back to my view they don't work super well as a team. Probably a third member scenario but also, Aet's call for a pivot came late enough I'm unable to feel it was super indicative. @Aeternum anyone else you remember was on besides TUN?

Fell sick on top of everything so gonna try to keep this short and say something in the morning when I wake up before conference. Or after I guess. Forgot we have 48. Sart being killed in S1 feels like a textbook shot in some ways. In S3, I instinctively feel he picks a sideways shot, but I’m not the best at understanding how he thinks. Aeo. Tempted to either not vote until I can work things out or double on Elan but given the low tempo of this game, I'd rather open it up. What'd everyone get from Exploring?

ty. Don't have the time to process this: tentatively feel this is not really a push a new(er?) player would've felt comfortable with as E, but acknowledge the newness screws with my ability to read Spirit. Last thought(s) for the night which just occurred to me: I'm personally indifferent to S2 even though I know it matters to some, since I don't have the time or mental energy to care about winning in that world so I'm just going to go for S1/S3 play even if it's personally suboptimal for S2. Sart's discouraged basement claims which is counterintuitive to his stated goals and probably puts me in conflict with my views on Elan. This perversely makes me more happy to V!read Sart for reasons I've explained a few times but boil down to him tending to weird me out more when V. 5/10 meaning around half of everyone voted. If we work from an S1 assumption, Sart's vote was parked and Spirit seconded. Eyeballing, it looks like a low tempo cycle, so I'll stick with the "no real Elims under threat" view. Can either be interpreted as a lead issue + stability meaning no Elim incentive to vote elsewhere, which ain't great given my suspicions so far but probably reasonable given how I have the attention span of a goldfish for this game. I don't think Elan's failure to vote here really says much because Aet swaps to her at 12 minutes to rollover, which is tight. It does suggest she had some degree of comfort with the state of the votes, and that's something I wonder about in an Aeo/Elan world because Aet would have highlighted potential to move to Aeo. Weakly against them being teamed for the moment I guess? Not sure. (Keeping in mind the S1/S3 differences to E profile assumptions are a doozy...) [STABILITY + LEAD]: Due to Aet's late switch, hard to say but would point to at least one in <Aeo, Elan.> [ELSEWHERE]: Main pool in <Coffee, Lego, Aet, TUO, Silver, Elan> - all comfortable enough with state of affairs to not-vote; Aet doing the last minute pivot call can be E!flexing but I sort of think E!Aet doesn't think to flex this way (however could indicate Aet's teammate not under threat. Aet and Elan not teamed minimally I guess? TUO could've self-pressed so it's a tad risky a call for Aet to make.) In <Coffee, Lego, Aet, Silver, Elan>? I guess I'm just not really thrilled by this pool tbh. Did I grouchily talk myself into vote analysis? Kinda, I gtg soon though and it wasn't what I came back to post about. FWIW what I actually came back to say was that something I think we shouldn't overlook wrt S3 is probably connectives - it's easy to think they're only there in S1 but the Kandra probably has to work out/ID their victim pool and this is going to influence how they react to/respond to stuff involving their prospective victim. In other words, probably run connectives on whoever who drops dead. It's going to be a little bit of NKA anyway, if done with a different valence, and might be good to cover that base. Good night for real. No more game need to survive 12 hours of goddamn talks and "not so much a question as a comment but..." rubbish.

K. On the assumption I'm way shorter on time than I'd like, could you just humour me and go over your evidence? I'm trying to understand your thought process. I take it you play mafia elsewhere then.

K. Short on time so current thoughts: -Willing to lean V on Sart for the moment. Not super confident of it due to having a bit of error in that TJ QF vis-a-vis Sart but Sart's last post seems a bit V to me. Aware that CC tends to be E!Sart's MO but he also tends to be more blatant about it. Willingness to be spicy is a bit more V from him, but mixed with wariness because of the E!Sart v. V!Aman LG92. -Aeo still in PoE for me. -Sidenote that I didn't like Aet's sleeping the elimination mention - it's a bad choice in S1 and S3 and it makes me consider an E!Aet S3 world but Aet's longpost also gives him credit in my eyes. Giving up tempo is not good in S1 (normal SE game), and it's especially not good in S3 (conversion on stilts where one read gets washed) so if we're in S3, this makes me more willing to consider an E!Aet world but he'll also hop tonight so that's not actionable. Overall, still willing to V Aet. -Nothing off Coffee. I'd like to lean a little V on this, but I also feel that's credit for doing little, and I don't like that, so Coffee formally stays in PoE. I believe E!Coffee and SK!Coffee should be readable, so there's no reason to keep the bar low. -/shrug on Lego's explanation. It does mean Lego has put himself in the player profile there which I'd be wary of, but also is understandable. Newness definitely means Lego will have difficulty generating and staying with an exe, so I guess some salt. Am a bit more willing to believe S3 E!Lego than S1 E!Lego. -Did not particularly like Elan's post. Felt like a nothing post, and that's a good place to be in wrt an ongoing exe without sticking your neck out. -Trying to work out how I feel about Silvereye's post. Recollection that Stick found E!Silvereye by closereading so someone with more SAN and time gotta do that. @Just a Silvereye What's your current read of Sart? You mentioned you thought his vote was bait. (I guess if forced to, I would say I don't get much off of Silver's post, so the null - it reads kind of safe to me, and Silver didn't end up voting at all, so that's something I'd be wary of.) - @Lord Spirit, could you explain the mentality behind your TUO vote a little more? Italicising Spirit under nulls because I never really like first game new stuff and also feel hesitance on the draw tends to be a bit more common. Could be convinced to downgrade Spirit. V lean: Sart Ok I guess: Aet Null: Lego, Coffee, Spirit, Silvereye Ehhhh: Elan, Aeo Everyone should be sending in an Exploration order tonight. By and large if you're not doing anything anyway, this will help us clarify the mapgen.

With the base probability being 20%, the most extreme situation has a 60-20-20 split which is 3/5. Curious where your confidence of convergence or lack thereof emerges from. Using epistemic probability here is a model of our ignorance, not the situation, and is akin to knowing a die is loaded and insisting the probability the loaded die will give a particular number is 1/6 because our ignorance is the measure of the die. It's also not a raw weightage - it's a conditional probability. You are dishonestly concealing the fact it's conditional on the original probability distribution which is not independent of the basement player pool, and that you're not baking in the 1/2 chance either. When you add up all the conditional probabilities, I'll be surprised if you get something substantive, but go off. It is specific to the two of you because Elan hasn't been active in her recent games, Sart (not highly active most games with the QF being a notable outlier) and TUN (more OTOT) are not that sort of player, and I don't have profiles of most of the others. If Drake or Aman were playing, I'd probably draw conclusions of them. I don't have a strong activity view of Coffee, and neither did I see any of the other players all mentioned in the thread at the same time as I was. I don't 'look at when people are online.' I read the thread and saw both of you there. I checked back subsequently when ready to give the game some mental energy, expecting to crunch posts and saw nothing, and then decided this was weird based off memory of your proactive Village styles. Calling this angleshooting IMO dilutes the notion of angleshooting because I did not go to each of your profiles and log your activity times. I take this to be substantively similar to someone who essentially goes 'huh, X has been lurking in the thread all day, why don't you say something' and votes. My mental path was more 'huh you lurked and vanished and normally I remember you both are keen to get into the thick of it, it shouldn't have come down to the guy with a single brain cell left from everything.' If meta votes are going to be considered angleshooting, then I'll just shrug and say it's more reason I don't play on MU. Still not comfortable with Aeo's thread opener, and feel TUN is being disingenuous in a way that feels opportunistic. I have my eye on Sart as well - he's not doing a thing E!him tends to do, but it's early yet. I acknowledge that TUN and Sart probably aren't teamed because Sart doesn't do distancing that way but I'll work it out some other time when I have mental energy. Lego voting and backing off also interesting. @Lego Mistborn, what's your thought process here? Have you played these before? (I don't think I can get back in the morning before rollover so I'm just gonna say it did feel a bit opportunistic then a sudden "ah damn I shouldn't." I'd probably be less willing to squint at this in a player I have a baseline for.) I'm /shrug on Aet, and think Aet's explanation is reasonable. Anyone who has not shown up deserves the ghost of Araris's grouch shaking his fist at them on the porch of this piece of damned real estate. Ty, one down, more suffering to come. Idgaf about votes on me because I have a two day conference coming up after tomorrow so don't expect to have mental energy for whatever that cycle will be.

If we don't know the mapgen, how are you confident making this claim? Fishy. I am busy with seven presentations and conferences, with one hitting me in a few hours. If I'm first in thread posting, something is wrong with the game tempo. I saw Aet and Aeo viewing earlier yesterday when the new cycle had gone up but had no time to type up a post then—I'm pushing them because I feel V!them should probably be more ready to get active and I distrust their lack of WiM. I think it's weird I beat them to the punch. I'm giving Aet some grace because he mentioned being busy enough to initially want to PH. EDIT: Possible slip from TUN. Pretty sure Elim pool based on exploration depends on mapgen, e.g. gen3 pulls from upstairs players. Don't really believe we're in a world where we know what mapgen it is without exploration though massclaims could be nice. YMMV due to role distros.

Sigh seriously? K not gonna RP because I'm short on time. We need to know what map we're in on. As I RPed, I just RNGed for everything and called it a day because no time. I think in general regardless of which mapgen happened, it doesn't matter wrt Day 1 handling. Everyone, please remember to explore at Night, because we want to find clues and understand the mapgen. @Araris Valerian, what does an explore order look like? Must we pick a location? Aeo Have eye on Aet as well, but understand Aet busy so Aeo it is.

Kanem sighed. A haunted rusting house with a mysterious butler. He was so tired of this drek. It was always a haunted rusting house, wasn't it, sold to you under false pretences of a fun tour, get a glimpse of the Grand Nalthian style back when it was a craze... And now there was a mysterious butler which most certainly didn't bode well, and the nameless recluse had just wandered off because they were apparently all going to go split up and get themselves killed like one of those horror flicks. "I'm going to the basement," he said, after rolling a die. Battered old thing that hadn't really brought him luck, but maybe it was going to change. Maybe being on a tour of a haunted house was the bottom of it. Figured he'd make it easier if he said it, maybe some people would come with him. Maybe they'd just be a load of murderers, though. Wouldn't that be his luck. He took one last glance at the group. Well, that Father Rhinehardt guy looked pretty spry. And he was a priest, wasn't he? "Maybe you should deal with that haunted box," Kanem suggested. If there was anyone who could exorcise the house, the box, and the butler, Father Rhinehardt had his vote of confidence.

Understand Araris is player-starved and will be pushing the start date back so the clash is less painful. I have 7 conferences and presentations in this period so I'll be only a little more active than a dead stick, but I will be alive by that benchmark. Signing up as Kanem. I'll work something out character-wise when I'm not trying to clear every damn thing before I go on conference.

LG101: Aftermath - The Last Bridge [pending - some people be 'let's put all the deadlines together at once and I figure y'all prefer a rollover to this.] Nobody was exed! Xino was killed! He was the Fourth Bridge! The Scadrian Saboteurs have won the game! Security Watchlist: Captain's Logs: Rosharan Intelligence Debriefing: Crew Manifest:

It's so late and there are more deadlines but I thank everyone for respecting closure.