Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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Final Thoughts: One thing a lot of players - Elk, myself (to some extent!) and TJ are missing is that there are two dimensions to this game. I do not know if this omission is just one of those things that happens, or if it is a sign that the player is Sja-anat benefiting from the chaos. Dimension 1: Finding Sja-Anat. Obviously, we want to find and lynch/kill Sja-anat. She's kill resistant/lynch resistant, but taking her out either wins us the game or significantly weakens the Elim team because of the charges consumed. What people who over-obsess about the conversion element keep forgetting is that Sja-anat starts evil and remains Evil. Players who are provably not Sja-anat are not - by extension - proven Village because of conversion, but narrowing on Sja-anat can help us narrow down on the Elim team by connections and also simply gives us one player who is decently findable by mechanical reasoning. This should not be downplayed. (Think LG79 and Malibu Sorry Elan.) BAM is useful in this regard but so are players with role abilities. Be careful about who you claim to, but you should be narrowing down on your Sja-anat PoE. Dimension 2: Finding the Defectors. This is the more complicated part because players can swap allegiances. This is where it's important to keep suspicions and trusts fluid. Voting track record is not necessarily helpful because a player can be converted, but one thing people forget is that Sja can only either convert or kill. Sja's team can only kill or put in role actions, so we do have mechanics coming in again. Barring complications from redirects and extra kills on Even cycles thanks to Cher, we do have some defeasible way of telling if Sja has converted someone - if there was a kill, or we know that there was no complicating Village action, then Sja did not convert anyone. This can be a powerful indicator in the early game on Odd cycles - we force Sja to do nothing, or to kill (which is still not that great for us) which will tell us that we do not need to worry about the conversion element on that cycle. Conversely, the longer a player has been converted, the more they build a new track record of action with their new allegiance. This, too, can be monitored. I feel as though TJ has been overplaying the paranoia element here, and am slightly suspicious of him for it. (Yes, yes, last son of House Urbain, I know.) Players need to keep in mind that the two dimensions are related, since Sja and the defectors know each other. But making progress towards identifying Sja is still progress. We mustn't conflate the two dimensions of the game with each other. Finding Sja can be informative in terms of how players react. It won't help us if the rest of Sja's team loves buses, but if you think about it, that's still all to the good. And as Elk pointed out, finding Sja is still strategically helpful because burning a lynch or kill or her still forces her to use up conversion charges - which weakens her team. Because executions and kills come before conversions on OoA, if we force her to burn charges, we can even nullify her conversions. I don't expect Sja to waste a conversion this early, by the way. I expect Sja to go for a kill for several reasons, none of which I am going to elaborate on but which are easily surmisable. (I don't work for free, Sja - in fact, I'd rather you stay off my porch >>) So the point is to remind people that if/when we see a kill, keep in mind that we are not dealing with a conversion yet. Sja's conversions in a way are - to quote Gamma on LG6 Padan Fain - like a limited series of slaps the Village knows is coming. But we mustn't obssess too much on the fact the slaps will be coming. We do have a number of inferences we can draw. We should focus on what we can control, and stay wary and keep suspicions fluid. [Note: Once Sja has her first conscript, that team can kill and convert at the same time, but until that happens, this is moot.] Park lynch plan: I say a bit about it later on, but I was a bit blase about the potential costs to lynch discussion that such a plan would bring about. Lynches, to be sure, are more contentious in a conversion killer game. All the same, some suspicion to Mat and TJ and Araris and Elan and potentially Elk for not calling me on this - slight plus to Illwei for not really being sold on it. I note Tani was fine with lynching Araris which is a bit of a switch given her usual play preferences. Current reads: Unlikely Sja: Null: Sja Candidate: That's about it from me. Good luck, Team Village. Make this count for something.
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Would agree. 师 gives it a very wuxia/youxia feel to me, which isn't incompatible with how Stormlight goes.
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In general I just meant I wanted to hear more people talk about what they thought about TJ's thoughts and Sja, as I feel I was the only one who really engaged TJ and that was it. Framing it the way I did was useful because it targets you, lets me get some clarity on your views on TJ and whether mindmeld is at work here, and also it just is more constructive than going "Hi guys 5 marks short answer question - Discussion on TJ's anti-Sja suggestions." But also stuff like hearing how people would profile Sja or what they would look out for as potential Sja or convertee signs. That sort of thing. It's nice to ask this when the odds are pretty high it's coming from that player as a Villager - IMO, standard lynch discussion won't really cut it here as people don't quite behave the same way without lynch pressure, but this sort of thing can still be informative. And I mean, it's telling too, isn't it? Players who are too off from how Sja is behaving - that's a datapoint. Players who are too on the money - that's a datapoint. We force Sja to blend in and talk casually about that. Just trying to eke more out of this C1, really. Hearing more about why you trust TJ for that vote works too though
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If A then B does not imply if B then A, certainly, unless it's a bi-conditional. Reverse isn't a valid inference, which is to say that it is not truth-guaranteed by logic. Doesn't say it can't be incidentally true which is why it's something I'd like to hear more on from you, but also really everyone. Cycle isn't fully over and I feel the need to stimulate discussion even with the lynch guaranteed
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I like it as a frame; you and Archer have a tendency to Village-read for mindmelding and it's nice to know whether that's in operation here, and it's an easy way to frame something I'd like discussed more.
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I haven't gotten to throw this one in almost seven years, damn. Edited to add: Personally I'm a five charges kind of guy. Friendship is sharing and caring and all that. And what could be better than spreading the light to my bros? ...Ugh. No. Ew. Get off my porch y'all >>
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Your top trust seems to think it's a worry. I'm interested in why you disagree with him, then.
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Why? And are you not convinced by TJ's reasoning? Are you not worried that you have just made him a target for Sja? ?
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RIP Devo, but thanks >>;;
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Reference to the fact she scanned and saw nothing of interest on two nights (she was a scanner), and the last part there is especially clever - her emotion bracelet (action scan item) was taken from her. Pailan/Sphinx, I was close enough. Anyway that's not important, my point is clear enough. It's a good way to pass info as a contingency as long as Moelach is alive, so why not be a bit clever about it? This Arenta sounds like a terrifying eldritch abomination of the bourgeoisie!
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Well, they are, but I was thinking of LG5, where...God, I can't remember her name, Paila? Sphinx? Someone used the Death Rattle to tell the Village what items she had when she was killed, which was pretty helpful. The sentence after that was not linked to the Death Rattle sentence, just stuff like you know, if you roleclaimed to one player and you think it's a bad sign if you're killed, maybe find a suitably cryptic way to tell us. Stuff like that. E.g. If you're a role, you can hint at who your previous targets were, you can talk about who you had PMs with, that sort of thing. Just gotta be cryptic and < 100 words.
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Araris is currently in the lead, you don't need my help. I'm voting for the person I find most suspicious See, the problem is: why would I be down for killing Araris this cycle? I'm down for killing me this cycle Though arranging for my death is not a bad idea, hmm... Suggestion that people plan their Death Rattles carefully. Also, if you have a provable role, even if you don't claim it, you may want to think of a way you can seed/claim in extremis. It won't prove that you're not Evil but being able to narrow down our pool of Malibu suspects would be helpful anyway.
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RIP yeah I just realised. I guess my brain is still in LG80 mode >> Yeah then it'll be more clear what Sja-anat's strat is due to actions economy since she has to go for either/or and the charge limitation applies. And this - I haven't made it clear but this is why I figure I'm not a bad place to park the lynch. /shrug For reasons already mentioned. Which is why it's still good to put attention there. It being in character for all of you doesn't say anything about whether you specifically are Evil but you behaving in the way Sja would (well, one particular flavour of Sja) still increases the odds that Sja is in the group of people who are lurking, on the assumption that Sja is behaving that way. Nevertheless, overall, odds are still not in our favour that we'll find Sja, raw probability-wise. TUO, Kasimir.
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Just to pathwalk and spell out my thoughts a little better: 1. The only reason I'm here and not playing Wrath right now is unfortunately because of a huge clusterchull with my databases but I need a break Also it turns out grumpy old guy RP is hard when I didn't think it through. 2. I'm normally adamant on a D1 lynch and would normally consider forgoing this to be bad for the Village. However, I do think conversion games are one exception, though this is a bit more complicated as Sja-anat can also kill. If we don't D1 lynch, the odds are good that it will be random, due to no vote minimum and ties being randomised. We also can't spend a day with no lynch pressure at all. I think the biggest reason to wait is really that with a single Evil player right now, Sja's influence on the lynch is likely minimal. The whole point of gleaning information in a normal game is premised on the idea we can look for connections and concerted pushes. D1 Illwei, Devo, and Steel in LG80 is an example of that. But since Sja is a lone wolf at the moment, looking for her will be a needle in the haystack at this point in time. D1 won't be useless - we can use it as a baseline to check for consistencies. My point is that it will be of less use than it would be in a standard game, and therefore it is less critical for us to ensure that we have a lynch. 3. I think that one thing we should keep an eye out for, alongside voting patterns and the usual post analysis is what Sja's kills are, and what Sja's profile is. (Helpful for BAM too I guess, since Sja is the only Elim BAM can reasonably catch.) Simply put: Sja's kills tell us who Sja's priorities are. We want to know: Is Sja converting during the Day and killing at Night? Is Sja going for low-info kills or threat kills or control kills? Is Sja, on the other hand, prioritising threat conversions, control conversions, or strategic conversions? Is Sja playing the low profile SK way, with conversions slapped out when needful, and focusing on kills, or is Sja trying to get a team together ASAP? Likely there won't be a clear-cut answer, but since Sja cannot kill and convert during the same Turn, if there is a Night kill on an odd cycle, we know it has to be Sja. Knowing Sja's profile helps us both anticipate what Sja will go on to do, and who Sja is likely to be, i.e. where BAM should look. My instinct is that a decent chunk of the thread is more quiet than I'd like. (Tani, Xino parked votes, have not heard from Elk, Mint is understandably busy, TUO has been watching the thread but saying nothing at all, which is a good place for Sja to be, Drought and Chantara are similarly quiet.) I still think Illwei is playing too boldly for Sja but she played that way as Kohga so I'm not going to rule her out. But I also think Sja is best served by keeping a low profile and staying out of trouble so that's where I'm looking first. Conversions are a limited resource and burning too many will dent Sja's survivability, so that will affect her play too. Anyway, this is subject to revision as we get more information as the game goes on. But my suspicions currently veer that way. Edited to add: Ignore the day comments, my brain is apparently still stuck in LG mode.
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I mean, that's kind of why I'm saying I think it is a good proposition that I'm presenting, yes I do think it might not be necessary that Sja would convert me, just leave enough doubt there that I'd soak the kill. That's how Sart played QF4: everyone expected him to go for the conversion all-stars team but he played careful and strategic and let some of the 'most wanted' players tear each other apart. But speculating about Sja's profile doesn't really help us right now in the absence of interaction or evidence as to how Sja is playing. Even as the irony of the situation strikes me. (Guy who has never been lynched in forever arguing that he should get lynched, oy vey...) Anyway, again - I still think it's win/win. Arguably I have thrown a bit of a wrench into our prospects of having fruitful lynch discussion D1 but hey it's never too late to get back to it, and I was always going to be a ? because of pre-game chatter, so it might as well be addressed. How does that work? If you don't think they are invalid or inaccurate, then why do you not agree with it? Sja, you said you'd help me to die faster
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Why sus TJ when TJ has stated he needs PMs to read me and this is a PM-limited game? Why not just kill TJ in a game full of players who don't generally do connection kill analysis? Why engage overly with TJ when TJ could also be easily converted if we're still presuming I consider TJ a threat? (Hint: I would not kill Wyrm if playing with him.) It's just a bunch of speculations thrown together and there's nothing I can say to that when Illwei asserts it's deflection. It's a format I've played before (LG6), I like puzzling out rules (LG79), I like mechanical reasoning (LG79), and I'm bored and we all know I overcommit to games when I'm bored and can't game but don't want to keep staring at databases. What's so mysterious about it? So...you suspect TJ then? Edited to add: It's not exactly a mystery begging for creative explanation when I'm a player with a history of being dragged deeper into games than I'd intended to commit, you know. There's a reason my quiet RPful game thing has become ironic where I'm involved
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@|TJ| Here's the thing. If I'm offering, knowing my standard risk tolerance as a player, I'm probably Sja or actually a stormspren. If I survive the lynch, we know I'm probably definitely going to be scanned because there is no alignment scan anyway, just a role scan, so BAM has no better person to hit, frankly, and I don't think there are Smokers in this game. Even if I don't get lynched for whatever reason, BAM should just scan me anyway. Even if I'm Sja, don't forget - PMs are not open yet, until the end of the cycle. I have no way to scan or detect anyone targeting me, or to know who those players might be. It's a pretty stupid play for Sja and arguably not the best Village play but it has certain advantages to it that I like, as I've already made clear. Really, the only reason I'm more familiar with how Sja might play is I was Sja in LG6 And I'm definitely not running anywhere near that play now, whatever you think my game is. You're free to check, too
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K. Keep being wrong then /shrug Like I said, vote for me then. Archer has always pointed out I don't play daring and the worst people can say about my proposition is that it sort of puts the Village in a no-lose D1, whereas we might want a stronger position. But how people react is informative, Illwei's doubling down is brave, stupid, or both, and possibly more commitment than I'd expect from any normal Sja but this is Illwei. I'm happy to be the "lmao we got no better train" candidate to dump votes on if discussion doesn't find anyone people feel strongly about and if people are worried I am Sja or potentially a Sja convertee, (well, I'm worried about the latter, I must admit), then burning that extra life down or extra charges down (depending on your point of view) is all the better. It's only logical there would be stormspren, frankly, due to Sja's lynch resistance. Edited to add: Bad form huh. Nice to see you can't find an issue with my logic apart so you have to dismiss it as either bad form or an appeal to emotion. You're not engaging, Sja.
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Yes, and you tend to pick those fights about your meta and those being NAI most when you're Evil, sorry. Not buying it. I've read enough of your Evil docs to see this. And if you feel frustrated, just take a second to stop and wonder if maybe that's exactly why I said I'd love to see what happens when I finally die and you're absolutely and devastatingly wrong after how unhesitatingly and confidently you stated it Anyway, my point stands. Unless everyone else other than Illwei has a stronger candidate (and I do - lynch Illwei), I propose myself as the lynch candidate. It's a win/win for everyone - we don't mislynch a Villager (unless we're fairly certain we have Sja), if you think I'm Sja, I'll have lost two charges, which is still a good thing for the Village, since that's less conversion charges. If you think I'm not Sja, my point and Mat's about the odds still stands considering everyone except Sja starts Village. What do you have to lose?
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Heads-up boys and girls I'm a stormspren so I won't die the first time, but I encourage you to vote on me anyway. Even if Sja eventually goes for me, it denies her a full-strength Thug, it brings me one step closer to death and blessed release, and if you actually think Illwei is right and I'm Sja-anat, I'll lose two charges that way. I'd also rather we burn a compulsory lynch on a Village Thug than on an actual Villager mislynch unless you're dead certain you can do better than random and net us Sja today. But I'm getting a very strong Kohga vibe from Illwei and I'm happy to gun for her death this cycle.
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Strong Kohga vibes. I'm happy to be lynched because it'll show how wrong you are But I actually think you're my best Evil candidate now so I'm going to vote for you and encourage people to join you on me if they want.
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Kasimir Illwei
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Sja confirmed. Edit: Says the person who N2ed me last game only because N1 was unavailable.
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No, I'm saying rate everyone according to suspicion and then change it each cycle with the evidence >> And yeah, but whether or not people say what their top trust reads are, people not changing top trust reads is gonna kill us more than them actually telling the class who their top trust reads are. Conversion games man. What was I drinking last night... I also think it is a moot point as: Sja has alternative ways of playing this. There's no need to say too much about how this would work and I leave it as an exercise to the reader. Suffice to say that with PMs Messenger-limited and one-on-one, trusts may not be a big issue barring information about information flows and who is particularly Connected, particularly because everyone will paranoid the moment a conversion goes off. Recall: Sja can only either kill or convert in a cycle, and if Cher exists, she can only kill every Even cycle. Sja also cannot be roleblocked. We'll have some idea of when a conversion happens, with some rule clarifications from Ash pending. Once that happens, trust reads or not, everyone will be suspect and will rightfully be suspect. (It'd be loltastic if Sja chooses to do nothing for a cycle just to make us paranoid for no reason but there are only so many players I expect to be that kayana as an Elim profile.) Doesn't look like BAM can scan alignment, so BAM is going to be the biggest danger to Sja (not her Defectors though) and I expect Sja to be attempting to get rid of BAM or convert BAM ASAP. Probably kill unless Sja has this particular profile since it takes two charges to convert BAM. Psst. BAM. Keep your head down and find Sja for us, okay? ...You're Sja aren't you.
