Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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Tani posted after rollover that she forgot to submit an action last cycle (RIP). So that has to be this cycle. Hah, fortunately I'm not that good at deepwolfing If I'm right about xino, and Sja really had one charge, I'm going to pray to the sacred coin for sparing me from the terror of conversion. Mat, obviously the decision is up to you and you shouldn't say in thread to give Team Sja a harder time predicting you, and my saying it is going to start a clusterchull of IKYKs, but a thought I had is that if xino is going to try to Soothe again, then he can't submit a kill. In a way: that obviously exonerates Archer (and ironically, xino) of having sent in the Elim kill, if we didn't need that already. Tani being D-G had a good alibi, so has no reason to tell the thread she'd forgotten if she didn't really. That being said, Elan probably sent it in anyway. Personal thoughts/speculation, since I always have just a bit of doubt (so I get the weird fear!) - I like both Archer's and Mat's PoE because I'm always wary of basing it just on projection of what the Elim team might have done, since the fact they have chosen not to convert and to kill too many actives is not necessarily what I'd have expected. So it's nice to see people arrive in the same ballpark. I think my fundamental issue is that even if we assume xino checked in enough to clock he was in trouble and quietly self-pres via vote manip but not to bother helping the Village or at least notifying us to go lynch someone else (which is itself sketchy), if it's not xino, it has to be one of <Mat, Tani> and I generally have better credences in both of you than I do in xino. We're not going to mention Az, I think Az is Evil either way, and I'm ruling myself and Archer out because of Squirrel. Obviously due to OoA, no C4 conversion, but this does entail C1 -> C2 -> C3 conversions. I think Az being converted C3 explains why Archer got a Village read off him C3; it would also explain why Squirrel and Elan both voted on Az, with Drought voting alongside. It'd be weird for Squirrel to endanger a teammate, but it'd be nice to convert someone you aggressively distanced from. We don't have much of a voting record for xino so I don't think it substantially makes a difference whether you assume he was converted C1 or C2. Elan backing me against Illwei makes sense if you look at the fact the Elim kill avoided Illwei C2, so she was likely a C1 convert. Tani wasn't really present for C3 so no comment; and if anything, I'd expect Mat to be more of a target after the Re-Shepir claim. Mat, I like your C3 Re-Shepir reasoning more now. If you're not Sja, there's little reason to fakeclaim Re-Shepir given the risk (though to be fair, you did claim to stop us from killing you.) Agreed about Tani being set up to be a mislynch target, and if you accept she forgot to send in actions, she materially helped Team Sja less than xino did. PoE really just narrows to xino/Az either way. Edited to add: I just think aloud in the thread let me live >> I can't be rambling in my GM PM all the time.
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Bro, it's been lylo since last cycle. You kept tabs enough to Soothe but not to help out? Edited to add: For that matter, why would you target anyone not likely to be an Elim NK target?
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The terrible irony is that Elan told me to keep that coin because it was a dedicated Elim hunter... Edited to add: If we are looking at paranoid contingencies, it'd be Xino - > Az - > Tani for me. Fairly certain Tani is Village at this point and I wouldn't consider her a suspect before Xino and Az. After Tani, Mat, Archer, then myself.
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I'm okay with a randomisation! @Archer — You may want to get a precautionary vote manip order in just in case. @Matrim's Dice — On the bright side, you have a 50% chance of clutching the save and ending it for us this cycle Edited to add: If we are right. I always have residual paranoia. But I think the best way to make sense of the C3 voting is that Squirrel converted Az C3.
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Need to red it man Edited to add: It's better when people cross-check >> Otherwise we get a Malibu 2.0.
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Yeah, my bad, sorry, read too fast Here's my theory on the votecount. Admittedly, I considered aggressively voting for you to see if I could lure some Elims, but I'm not a good liar and without a PM, I don't think I could have sold it without confusion. [SCENARIO #A]: Archer was roleblocked (he has denied this), or was lying about using his Nergaoul powers to shift a vote to the Squirrel train. This essentially requires that Archer be Evil. Furthermore, the Soother Soothed a vote off xino. I don't put much stock in this - I floated Squirrel as a way of opening up discussion last cycle, and I'm not sure I could have sold it if Archer hadn't joined. Furthermore, if Archer were Elim, I don't think the team would've just let Squirrel die like this. They'd have more tactical options. I'm considering Archer de facto Village for the Squirrel vote. [SCENARIO #B]: Let's look at what happens if Archer doesn't Nergaoul: Because the fact that Archer moved a vote from the xino train to the Squirrel train means that we should have seen: But that's not what we see. We see 3-1. Which means that the Squirrel train was Soothed (-1) and Archer's shifted vote (+1) makes the net delta zero. But Elan's vote makes much more sense if we understand it as operating with the understanding that the Soothe was coming on the Squirrel train. And in my view, the fact xino dipped but knew to Soothe the Squirrel train damns xino as another Elim. Minimally, they're not E-E-E: Elan wasn't going to shift a vote for a 1/3 chance at killing them all. (Unlikely, in my view.) In fact, I don't even think they're V-V-E. Because Elan had one more option: Remember that Elan's move doesn't seem to take into account Archer's votejack. I'll say a bit more about it later. The point is that the Elim team could have decisively killed xino instead, to the best of their knowledge. The fact that they do not/did not seems to point to one thing: Xino is Evil too. They decided to go for a 1/3 chance at hitting a Villager. I suspect this also entails that Squirrel actually still had one charge. Because if Squirrel has no more charges, then there's no reason to favour losing Sja over losing a Soother. So our Elim team is likely to be: <Az, xino, Elan, Sja> - 1 + 1 + 2 = 4. Hence they tried to save Squirrel, because if Squirrel lived, they could still get off one last conversion. Me. (Alternatively, Squirrel could tank a night kill. But thanks for saving my life anyway guys. I really don't like being Evil ) Ash clarified that if Squirrel had two charges left, Squirrel would have survived. So our only options are that Squirrel had one or no charges. This gives us an 'Elan-Unmade-Unmade' team or 'Elan-Xino-Unmade' team only. There are some other permutations if someone is lying about their role but either way, same issue - points back to xino. And I already flagged last cycle that Az's behaviour is odd. You don't go for an info lynch at lylo. If you have reason to be indifferent, then yes. But there was absolutely no reason to be indifferent between Mat and xino or Mat and Squirrel. ...And I see I've been ninjaed, good job guys Edited to add: If it's not apparent, I think Tani and Az are the only two options anyway if you want to look for a reason why the Elims could have failed to factor in that Archer said he was going to Nergaoul. (Mat would've caught it, IMO.) But Tani didn't vote, and given how important that could've been to her team, I'm not buying it. On top of everything else already said.
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No. Kills and lynch come before conversions. Did you send in an action? Were you roleblocked? Your Nergaoul vote is missing. Edited to add: Ah sorry Archer, I speedread. Alright. Then I think I know what happened.
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TUO managed this. If you are a Villager, I have faith in you
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Yeah, and you gotta Re-Shepir man. I have a theory about what happened last cycle, but I'd like to hear from Archer first, and preferably xino as well. And Az. And basically everyone -.- It is theoretically impossible for us to have lynched Sja in any other scenario than [CASE #1] and [CASE #3] so what we do know for sure is that there are still two Elims. We're 4-2, so it's still kind of lylo: if they successfully kill and we don't lynch correctly, they hit parity and we lose. So we have to do this right. Leaving you alive is therefore bold: if you Re-Shepir right, they lose this cycle. Unless, of course, you're Evil. @xinoehp512, if you're a Villager, it's all hands on deck time. The one bright point is that lynching Sja entails that we don't have to worry about conversions. Any reads from last cycle will be stable, which means I am tempted to read everyone who voted for Squirrel and stayed there as Village, which...is just me and Archer, RIP
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Why would he be? This is C5. He can't kill C5. I suppose him killing Elan would have confirmed him. Edited to add: Cheers. So we know that Sja must have one charge or less. We also know that Sja burned one charge converting Elan. Let's look at the possible cases/permutations, ignoring order: [CASE #1]: 1 + 2 + 2 = 5 [Sja converts Elan and two Unmade.] [CASE #2]: 1 + 2 = 3 [IMPOSSIBLE; Sja would not have died.] [CASE #3]: 1 + 1 + 2 = 4 [Sja converts Elan, and one other Voidspren, and one Unmade.] [CASE #4]: 2 + 2 = 4 [IMPOSSIBLE; doesn't account for Elan.] I don't think I'm missing anything else. In [CASE #3], I understandably still haven't been converted, so our only real candidate would be our Soother/smokespren. Anyway - @Archer, thought you said you were going to Nergaoul the lynch? @Azmine_king, what did you see? Also, xino.
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Thank you, TUO. You really helped. @Ashbringer - If Sja had two charges left, would Sja get lynched, or survive the lynch? That's the third time the sacred coin has come in clutch for me, holy hell o.O
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I know the feeling. Been OTing since someone lost their chull over some stuff on Sat, then there was the database clusterchulls last week. Feels like I haven't slept in weeks. Hmm. The sacred coin says to stay on Squirrel. I don't know if that calms me, but okay.
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Drought was too.
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...I still feel nervous about voting with Elan. I also feel nervous about voting with Mat and Squirrel. And I sure as hell don't want that Mat train. #why Damnit @|TJ| bro why'd you have to leave me alone
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Final-ish thoughts, thanks to the amount of OTing I've been doing, though I anticipate being on intermittently. Guess I'm going to put this up before returning to work so I'm hopefully not too late. If we assume we are in [WORST CASE], we are 5-4. If TUO is Evil, we've lost. If Archer is Evil, we've also lost. This exposes us to a hammer and a powerful laxative an extra kill. The hammer could misfire. But assuming Team Evil has got their game together, well yeah. This isn't an argument for exonerating Archer and TUO, but it's indicative of my approach, which means that I'm probably not going to consider them as targets for my final vote. We may not be in [WORST CASE]. I suspect we are in some intermediate case between [WORST] and [BEST]. I think a decent case can be made for acting as though we are. Which does warrant the claims party of this cycle. If we are in [WORST], we need to consolidate. This should not be last minute, but should ideally be done before the cycle ends. This does generate some problems for us with regard to e.g. Xino, who has evidently checked out of the game (whether RL or otherwise; understandable, but unfortunate for us if xino really is Village.) If we are in [WORST] and xino is Village, our effective voting power is 4-4, before taking into account voteswings due to Nergaoul and/or the Soother. One consideration I have in mind is if xino is going to be much more engaged next cycle - because if xino isn't, then on the assumption there is a next cycle, I'd rather take the stab in the dark now than later on. This is not an argument for a CC lynch; in my view, this is only going to hold true if all else remains equal, i.e. there is absolutely no reason to prefer Squirrel to xino, or vice versa, apart from them both being in the PoE. Then there might be a pragmatic reason to. I'm going to go over the reasoning one last time. This is really more for my own sake, because I need to think aloud (as unfortunate people in PMs with me have since discovered on prior occasions.) And I kind of want to get this out with enough time that if I have to switch for consolidation purposes, I can do that. Why? What exactly? Az's comment on spew analysis strikes me as weird, by the way. Informational reasons are okay depending on context - lylo is not the time to go pure informational. It's not a bad difference if you're indifferent, but why would you be indifferent between, IDK, Mat and xino? Let's go back to what Sja could/would do. Clearly, Sja can't roleclaim accurately. Doing so would be potentially gamethrowing, considering how suicidal a move it would be. So there are three main options: Claim an Unmade role I feel there are two sub-options here. A: We could postulate that Sja claimed Re-Shepir, as Mat did. This entails picking a random Unmade and hoping to get lucky. Note that Mat's Re-Shepir claim came before any other Unmade claim, though we already had evidence of Cher, Moelach, potentially D-G (weak), and Nergaoul. Certainly, Mat could have selected his claim to avoid collision where possible, therefore avoiding BAM, Cher, Moelach, D-G, and Nergaoul. What's interesting is that he asks about Ashertmarn earlier, which might indicate he's not tracking Unmade identities too closely, because Elk was Ashertmarn and died C2. The other issue with this line of thought is that it requires Mat to have some idea of what actions Tani and xino were taking, in order to make the fake claim plausible. Certainly, low activity players could be a strategic choice: it doesn't look as suspicious as always targeting the dead, and they're less likely to call you out. But in this game with a decent number of roles with actions, that seems like a semi-suboptimal choice. So I take it as prima facie reason to have some credence that Mat is who he claims he is. That being said, if Mat is in fact Sja, someone on his team is likely a nightspren or Re-Shepir, enough for him to feel confident about the Tani claim. So I guess I'd shift him to the [MODERATE] tier, but still low credence. B: We could postulate that Sja claimed the Unmade identity of a teammate. This requires the teammate to have claimed yet another role to disguise, in a switcheroo. (Or the teammate could simply fail to claim.) First, this is only a promising strategy if Sja still has conversion abilities. When Sja is out of charges, Sja basically is a vanilla, and therefore the most expendable member of the team unless there's another voidspren out there. If so, then you want Sja to take the kill, so the team can have the tactical flexibility of existing role abilities. Our options for these aren't particularly great: TUO claimed Cher without contest, and certainly simulated a roleclaim early in the cycle C3. In fact, he tried Moelach, which got him called out by Az. I think the oddness is this: TUO said that he claimed Moelach because Cher was more likely to get him converted or killed - true, but why claim in the first place? What pressure was TUO responding to? Because the first time TUO got voted on that cycle was when I @ him over the couplets. And I still don't see how Moelach isn't still a conversion/kill magnet. At the same time, it'd be odd to claim Moelach and then get called out for it, and then fakeclaim another pre-existing Unmade! On this line of argument, if TUO were Sja, why not just claim the teammate's identity to begin with? Az @ ing TUO and Tani definitely implies either he is in a doc with actual Moelach, or he is actual Moelach - noticing correctly that they targeted Illwei is a big call to get right. Az also volunteered this earlier in the cycle, but I respond a bit better to this than TUO's claim because it was informational. TUO claiming he saw who killed Illwei but wouldn't say who isn't bad caution for a Villager, but it also reads like a straight-up call to get excluded from the Sja PoE. The main issue with Archer and Nergaoul is that there's no real counterclaim and it's not clear who the counter would be. (This, by the way, is a minor issue with postulating an Unmade claim switcheroo - if Sja takes Unmade Teammate's role and actions and claims them as hers, then what does Unmade Teammate claim? Voidspren/Regal voidspren? If not, do they claim another Unmade? But then why isn't the other Unmade counterclaiming? And so on. I will say a bit more about this in a bit.) That being said, if we take as true Az's claim that Illwei was targeted only by TUO and Tani C2, then the Nergaoul is likely a Villager argument falls apart because there simply was no interaction between Team Sja and Illwei. (Why, though?) Archer's claim also fits in terms of Chantara's timing and expressed thoughts, minimally. Finally, Tani. I am inclined to believe Tani because a series of predictions about existing PMs is a fairly tall ask. I think C2 does wash out looking a bit better for her. (Previous longpost.) What's interesting for me is that Tani says that her C2 PMs with TJ and Illwei failed. That's a very specific word - and it strikes me as the sort of thing that a GM would use, in terms of the action failing. I don't know if that's likely to be conveyed via doc. Remember that this isn't establishing who is likely Village at this point. It's just establishing where Sja can be hiding because Sja is confirmed Elim, and because we really need to drain her charges (minimally) and take her down (maximally.) Claim a voidspren/voidspren Regal role We have just really one taker here, and that's Squirrel. Squirrel's roleclaim is initially plausible to me. In a conversion game, it makes sense there'd be redundancy built in for scanners, and Nightspren are more limited than Moelach. Claiming that no one targeted TUO C3 is a bit of a bold prediction; less so for an Elim, but all the same. (Perhaps it's not too bold, since we do have a Moelach claim for TUO C3, and with Araris dead and little sign of PMs, it's not particularly risky.) But suppose the results were in fact produced. What does an Elim Nightspren need to scan TUO for? Yelig-Nar is down, meaning that there are no more protect roles in the game. Even if we postulate that Squirrel is using the results from a teammate, my issue is that I can't see what there is to be gained from the teammate doing so. One of my reasons for putting pressure on Squirrel is that this option seems to me to be a bit more plausible: whereas Unmade roles are unique, voidspren roles are not, meaning that Sja would not attract potential counterclaiming, particularly once Araris was dead. Refuse to claim I am hesitant about this, because our two outliers are Elan and xino, and we know Elan can't be Sja, whereas we have an unaccounted for Soothe on xino C1. If Mat is truthful, Mat made xino self-target C1. This means that if xino had a role and took an action C1, it can't have had a visible result. Unfortunately, that's not terribly helpful because it's possible to have not taken an action. Refusing to claim is also a strange strat for Sja because it just looks bad in a game where everyone else has already claimed at lylo - it makes you stand out. Claiming a voidspren role, in comparison, is pretty uninvolved, I think. But here's the problem. We can merge 2 and 3 together due to numbers: <xino, Elan, Squirrel>, of whom Elan can't be Sja. If Sja isn't hiding in this pool, she has to logically be hiding in the <Az, Mat, Archer, TUO, Tani> pool. (I can't be Sja.) But we know that every Unmade mentioned thus far except Re-Shepir has to exist. (Moelach because Death Rattles do, Nergaoul because of the C2 votejack, Cher because of the C2 kill. It is possible that Dai-Gonarthis doesn't but it requires us to postulate even more lying, due to needing at least two envoyspren and requiring Elims to link themselves blatantly.) In other words, consider this scenario: Az (random pick) is really Sja. But Az is claiming Moelach, which is X's role, in order to divest himself of suspicion. Who can X be? Suppose X is Archer. (Random pick as well.) This requires not just that Az fakeclaim Moelach and that Moelach be Unmade, but it passes the problem down one step. Well, why didn't Nergaoul call Archer out, then? Since we are assuming in this scenario that Archer is actually Moelach (X), there are only two logical answers: Nergaoul is inactive, or Nergaoul is in cahoots with Archer. The first option is odd: it requires Archer to pick a role he knows exists but that he doesn't know who the player is, and might get called out for it. The second option is odd as well: if we postulate that Nergaoul is Archer's teammate, then we pass the problem down yet another step: who is Nergaoul going to claim? The point is: A. Sja doesn't have the charges to convert all the living Unmade. Her maximum is two Unmade. At some point, one of them is going to have to claim voidspren. Our only voidspren candidate is Squirrel. B. Nergaoul could simply decline to claim. This points us back to Elan and xino. The fact that we have claims from pretty much every player not Elan and xino points, in my view, to the fact that either we postulate Sja is hiding in the <xino, Squirrel> pool, or that one of <Archer, Tani, Mat, TUO, Az> is Sja. If we do, then with the exception of Mat (and weakly in the case of Tani), we have to postulate that one of <Squirrel, xino, Elan> is also Evil, to help cover for Sja. In other words, it keeps coming back to those three. It's possible Mat is lying about being Re-Shepir, but I think I've laid out why it seems to be prima facie plausible to me. All of which is a long way of saying that I'm still cool with a kill on Elan but I feel like it's really down to <xino, Squirrel> right now. I'm tempted to go xino, but at the same time, I don't really know if it's just activity bias at work. Ah, hell. xino, Squirrel. If there's something I'm missing and we need to consolidate on Squirrel, @ me. I'll be OTing so I'll be able to catch this before rollover and swap accordingly. Edited to add: Alright, better to consolidate. xino, Squirrel lesgo @Ashbringer
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Elk, dead. Will catch up with everything else later. It's a busy day :/
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To be fair, it would be weird to not have R-S because Cher is in and I see R-S and Cher as complementary. You fakeclaiming R-S would also be a risk as you wouldn't know if R-S would call you on it... Gneorndin It's balanced by the issue that we've seen nothing that definitively says R-S has to exist, probably out of sheer bad luck on your part. In that sense, I consider Nergaoul a more daring claim because Archer must know real Nergaoul would call him out, unless, of course, teammates. But really, the only reason to go for a swap play is to hide Sja. But I digress. To me, it's like Squirrel's claim—immediately plausible, and nothing contradicts it, but also can be explained by other means. I'd probably rank it a bit higher than Squirrel's claim because you claimed before Tani showed up, though it's inferrable from activity potentially and there's always the teammate paranoia angle. Why Squirrel over xino? I feel like xino or Elan would be my convert candidates anyway. Slight preference for Elan, so I agree with TUO's choice of target. If everyone is currently truthful then it looks like we have all the Nine. Which would make sense but at the same time, as with the distro symmetry issue, I prefer to try to avoid leaning too much into it. I blame Wyrm ruining my symmetry expectations in LG7. I was so dead certain Jain had to be a Seeker too—the symmetry would have been beautiful :/
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Reasonable, thanks Okay, I'm going to swap the order around because I'd preferably like to get a bit more discussion alongside just role/claim reasoning, so I'll try to shift my scheduling around and do some vote analysis first and then leave it there and go back to work. A. C1 voting revisited: B. C2 voting revisited: C. C3 voting revisited: D. This is really putting me in some confusion. In general, what Tani is saying checks out in that I feel if she's committed to confirming PM claims and the timeline, then yeah. We know she can't be a C1 or C2 convert - Sja's convert killed off the bat, and Tani not killing would defeat the purpose. Of xino and Elan, I'd have thought Elan is the more likely Sja candidate: it's weird to Soothe someone else's vote to prove your role, because you don't always know if the vote will remain stable, and then there goes your self-proving attempt. But contextually, we know Elan cannot be Sja: Araris confirmed this, and Araris had no reason to lie in that context. (I know Villagers sometimes lie but considering he was a Village scanner role, that's kind of eh.) Which means that we have to go and look at claims in terms of overall shakiness. STRONG: MODERATE: [=not impossible for there to be an issue, but requires a teammate who is actually the role and lying/covering up] WEAK: If we're looking for Sja, my immediate thought is that our weak points are Squirrel, xino, Mat, and Elan, with a maybe on Archer. The fact we have not seen another Soothe since might be inactivity, or might be the Soother becoming the dedicated killer. I would rank Archer's claim as the weakest of all the MODERATES, but all the same. Xino has been too low activity to be Nergaoul. So it's within the <Squirrel, xino, Mat> band for me for Sja. I'm okay with the current pressure on xino but I want to look at Squirrel as well. Mat claiming Tani was Re-Shepired is a bit of a bold claim if he didn't know what Tani was. Possible he converted Tani at some stage, I guess, but then he's connecting himself and Tani by claiming to have targeted her so I'm not sure about that. I got ninja-ed countless times while writing this, RIP >> And thanks, @Tani - I don't think you are immediate danger of getting lynched as the Sja candidate, anyway. And I referred to it as the Tani cycle because it's the one you spent a decent chunk getting voted on, and someone votejacked you (Archer.) Temple trip ftw Alright, I need to go pack it up and go back to OTing, but hopefully I've got stuff people can bounce off and discuss more. Edited to add: In case I'm confusing any Mormons here (always a risk on Sanderson forums), I'm speaking from a Daoist perspective here.
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Okay, but...uh, alright, here's the thing. Hypothetical for you: Kas is Dai-Gonarthis. He creates a PM between himself and Wyrm. Suppose further this is the only PM D-G creates. Ren is Re-Shepir, and Ren causes Kas to self-target. Since R-S only duplicates, what would the result of the self-target be? I read your clarification as saying in the case Kas creates two PMs, one between himself and Wyrm, and one between Gamma and Maili, then the result would be you RNG in the <Kas, Wyrm, Gamma, Maili> pool for who gets a free PM with Kas courtesy of R-S. Would that be correct? What happens in the single PM case though?
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I ask 'cause if this can be corroborated and we have a cycle timeline of which was when, this pretty much exonerates you from being Sja and sending a kill in. Mat's C3 scan on you does imply that you didn't send in a kill C3 at the very least. Thanks!
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This doesn't matter. Sja's charges are burnt involuntarily and kills precede conversion. There's nothing they can do to stop TUO besides a roleblock, though I suppose the chance that he could be talked into slaying a Villager might encourage them to hold off on the roleblock button. Not really. We don't know Elan, we still have the unknown Soother (guessed to be xino, but) - and most importantly, Tani's claims don't account for all known PMs. Which means we're probably going to get an Envoyspren claim out of Elan. Tani can't account for: Elan's claimed C1 PM with TUO ( @The Unknown Order, can you confirm this?) My C1 PM with TJ In addition, I'd like to get solid cycle timelines down. Which cycle did you open which PM, @Tani? @Ashbringer Does an Envoyspren/D-G get a PM with just themselves and you in it if R-S makes them self-target? Edited to add: In fact, the unaccounted for PMs are problematic because they require two Envoyspren exist, if D-G is a unique role.
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Less that, just thinking aloud that Sja's value to Team Evil in terms of being their converter kind of drops with charges, since her converts will still have repeatable abilities, but she won't. Of course, that does imply that she's a low value target for us too if she's low on charges, but I just like hitting Sja just in case no matter what, since as long as she has even a single charge she can convert someone. Well, some of us >> Besides, I still feel she's the most findable in theory, if we can get some cross-checks on the roleclaims.
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I'm happy to add the pressure, see what shakes out, talk to more people, do the analysis (probably tomorrow as I'm OTing tonight but I really want to update the vote analysis with what we know of Araris and Drought and see what we get), and then finalise a vote Even if she's out of convert charges? Edit: @The Unknown Order - You might as well. It's a "have to get this right" thing because we are either at lylo or close to it so if there's any additional info the thread has, this should be used and discussed together. Besides, if they have a roleblocker, the roleblocker will always hit you unless you're targeting a Villager and if you are targeting a Villager, it's highly likely game over for us so it's no big difference
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I mean, valid question. Tani could be a convert instead. Question is how inactive Sja can really be. If we have sufficient pressure on Tani for the moment, I'm going to go with xino as well. xino. Fair warning, if we are 5-4, any split or any unknown vote manipulation means we may have to be wary of a hammer. But that's a tomorrow problem. *pained look* Nothing against this, just paranoia >> If we think the <Mat, Archer, Az, TUO> pool is pretty much accurate as <R-S, Nergaoul, Moelach, Cher>, then yeah - we're left with the <Squirrel, Tani, xino> pool since Araris scanned Elan as not-Sja. I just think there's some logical room here for one of you to be Sja in cahoots with actual Nergaoul et al - point taken Archer, and I agree that it fits Chantara's behaviour, I'm...shall we just say I'm covering the escape hatches this time, given the Malibu-artform escape hatch I didn't emphasise the last time. In other words, roles clear only for the Sja pool and only partially, since Sja will obviously fakeclaim anything but Sja, and a teammate may help. (I don't know if that's promising though since it's easier in general for Sja to tank a lynch and the more she's out of charges, the more her value to the team decreases.) Okay, yeah, this. I suspect it was just a role proof, because the margin was way too big. Tani hasn't been on, so IDK if she could be our missing soother claim. But generally it doesn't make sense for it to be anyone else. Hmm. So if this is true, Illwei probably tried to check Araris C2 after his claim, which is reasonable since he'd have been a good kill/convert target. What's interesting is that if this is true, no one went after TUO C3. Which...why not? Time of the claim, as Mat suggested? Converted earlier? It's helpful insofar as we have some D-G confirmation on the assumption that Squirrel is truthful. Which, well, let's mark as an assumption. There had been too few PMs for D-G activity but now we almost need someone to be lying if there's no D-G because three C1 PMs is a lot. Tani saying the PM was made start C3 by Ash is weirder because Tani claimed in thread C2 to have a PM, meaning she then has a PM created C1 with someone else. It's not a thing of suspicion in and of itself, just confirms we have a missing D-G, which is moderately checkable. Either that, or as I said, someone's lying and we have a missing envoyspren or bunch of envoyspren alongside D-G. Filter kill requires non-posting in thread. But I agree: if she's active, then likelihood the filter will hit her is low. Strategy talk Alright guys, let's talk strategy. Assuming [WORST CASE], even supposing we lynch correctly, if Sja doesn't die (the lynch will just knock her down two charges), the kill goes through and we're done for. We have two ways we can play this: A. We can double down. This means Cher/ @The Unknown Order has to kill whoever is getting lynched. And then we hope this is enough to take Sja out since she'd require three charges to stay alive. But this won't kill Sja in this intermediate scenario (probably a few others like it), where Sja successfully converts non-Unmade C1 and C3 but not C2 because Illwei dies before being converted. Sja has three charges in this model. I don't think situations like this are common, but all the same. In that scenario, we automatically lose as soon as the Sja kill goes through. And [WORST] assumes Sja hasn't hit Unmade. If Sja has, then she will be lower on charges such that a combined kill will be likely to succeed. B. We can hedge our bets. This means Cher/ TUO has to kill our top convert suspect. And we lynch our top Sja suspect. Ideally, this kills Sja, but even if she survives, we should have killed most of her charges, enough that a convert won't go through. So our delta should be -1 (Sja kill), and -1 to Team Sja via Coinshot kill. Of course, here, the tricky thing is finding our top convert suspect on top of our top Sja suspect >> The one advantage I think this has is that this to some extent nullifies attempts by Team Sja to control who is hit, since they can't stop a Cher kill (unless they have a roleblock, then RIP us.) I don't feel particularly strongly about this. I think a lot hinges on Cher either way, but I could see us having to play this last cycle out even if Cher is already on Team Sja, with Team Sja having a conversion left. ( @Ashbringer, are you in a position to be able to answer if you would require us to play out a loss scenario (e.g. 5-4, net delta minus one even if Village lynches right)? I figure it may be a bit too sensitive but it's worth asking Worth getting clear on which we go for.
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1 DG, or one D-G and one envoyspren, or one D-G and a role we don't know about. Those we don't know about: <Squirrel, Elan, Tani, xino>, and the roles we do know about but have no claims for: either <D-G, envoyspren, smokespren, Sja>, or <D-G, ?, Sja, smokespren>. Logically, since TUO and Elan got a C1 PM, and so did Archer and Tani, and myself and TJ, this requires us to posulate either three envoyspren (more claims than players; not impossible but suggests one of our <Cher, Moelach, R-S, Nergaoul> claimants is lying; note we have definitive evidence that Cher (C2 kill), Moelach (existence of Death Rattles) and Nergaoul (C2 votejack) exist, so we should have gotten a counterclaim if they were lying, unclear about R-S. This isn't to say they can't be converted, but just focuses on where Sja is hiding. Or, we have to postulate the two sets above. So to recap: Based on our current claims: Either: <Squirrel, Elan, Tani, xino> -> <D-G, envoyspren, smokespren, Sja> <Squirrel, Elan, Tani, xino> -> <D-G, ?, smokespren, Sja> As Elan pointed out, one way or another, she can't be Sja. Araris died loyal BAM and scanned me C1, and scanned Elan C2. Araris is unlikely to have lied about his scan results given the importance of narrowing a Sja pool. So however we assign the results, we know that Elan can't be Sja. It has to be one of <Squirrel, Tani, xino>. But this branch assumes that everyone else who roleclaimed has been truthful so far. What happens if we question that? <Archer, Mat, Az, TUO> -> <Cher, Molelach, ?, Nergaoul> Then we get this branch. I'm excluded because I was scanned stormspren C1. This leaves us with our pool of four: <Archer, Mat, Az, TUO>. Now, this actually doesn't wash out too well, because Cher, Molelach, and Negaoul all exist. As I've mentioned, we have direct evidence for this. So our main Sja/liar candidate in this pool is Mat: anyone else would require another player to be lying. Consider: If TUO is lying about being Cher, then TUO has to be Sja - unlikely that another role would feel pressure to lie. But if TUO is Sja, then another player must actually be Cher, which means that that player is lying. We're at lylo. If you can claim actions and role, minimally, it'd be helpful, even better if you can tell us if you were in a PM or who your suspicions are Edited to add: Elan, I'd he happy to hear it if my models are mistaken, since we'd be in a better position but the maths points out we're at lylo, which is one reason the thread has turned into a claims party. I don't think we can afford to wait for her to come back, because we can't afford to get it wrong this cycle. If we're 5-4, a single successful Elim kill brings us to parity and they win. If we're 6-3, we do have more leeway but that's the most optimistic scenario. Her inactivity, if not a ploy, could be a sign she's not Sja, but that's always hard to affirm until closer to rollover. Edited to add 2: This was my initial thought, but both Moelach claims have denied this. Moreover, near the end of last cycle, Drought came on at your ping and voted for TUO, who had claimed Moelach. He was genuinely surprised and retracted instantly when you warned him TUO was our Moelach claim. This was two minutes before rollover. Would Drought have time to change a death rattle? (I guess it's not impossible. But it's odd.) Edited to add 3: My point is that we can't wait for the filter to help us, if it will. We absolutely have to get it right this cycle, and that means looking/going for whoever has the highest chance of being Sja.
