Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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Is Ash though? Is Ash?
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Elk Elan
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Elk. Why the fixation on ties?
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AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA Sigh. Okay. I find Araris's claim initially plausible though of course I'd say that. A convert would know that too though, and as Elk pointed out, this says nothing about whether Araris was converted C1. But that's easy to rectify since we'd be expecting scan results from him as long as he remained alive, so he can't be sending in kills which would make him functionally useless to Sja even if he was a C1 convert. Ditto for C2. If Araris is killed this cycle, then we know for certain that Team Sja is on late enough to change orders. That narrows down the set a bit, since we know who was on and TUO was scanning the thread. It's down to Elan or Elk for me.
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.......................... Araris Mininally. It's a moot point - either Araris is lying or he is not. If he is lying, we'll soon find out. If he isn't, a BAM scan could be useful. Or Araris will be dead or converted. If he is dead or converted, we know that one of Sja or Team Sja was on in time to send in the kill/convert order, and probably change it. Excuse me while I go tear my hair out and stare at what's left of my reads. Ah, for frick's sake. Elan for now. Edited to add: Or yeah, he could be converted BAM. Tempted to back TJ up on Elk, but at the same time, I dislike Chantara's throwing on so I am a bit at a loss.
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I'll be honest, I'm still conflicted because my theory about you has you as the most likely candidate for something else, but my vote on you was partly because I'm indifferent, and partly because of Sja and Sja convert profile reasons. The side-votes on Tani look weird to me, but I don't have strong feelings on Tani one way or another - it's the context that has me feeling a little suspicious. But logically speaking, I shouldn't be indifferent: if my theory is correct, I have stronger reason to believe you can't be Sja as compared to believing that Araris can't be Sja. Which means... Araris Mat And the balance is upset once again /shrug
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Why, specifically, by the way, are you on Tani? This was asked earlier by Chantara and you mentioned it was never elaborated - but you had started with a Tani vote and Araris backed you up and I'm curious as to why.
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Pass.
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Lopen's. You signed up as Lopen because apparently everyone was stealing everyone's names. My mental activity/player profile of you has unfortunately fossilised from that game, except I've apparently confused you with Devo which is embarrassing. In which case, I'll have to shift your category, yeah. Funny thing is I remember conspiring in PMs with you and Devo and some weird "who will partner with whom" thing because partnering afforded some kill-protection.
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Alright. Last committed attempt for the cycle: Sja’s alignment stays fixed. Anyone else can be a convert. In other words, there are two senses in which Sja will be the one we are most likely to catch: first, because Sja will be the Evil player most likely to have a consistent gameplan, and second, because Sja is the only Evil player who can convert and must* therefore either survive a lynch, or be protected by her convert. (*It is possible for Team Evil to not really care; they could play it that way too. But Sja gives Team Evil a certain advantage and at least early on, I think they aren’t likely to just sit there and let Sja get hit.) In other words, it makes the most sense to go on a Sja hunt. Taking out Sja early tactically weakens the Elim team. She is – in any case – the Elim we are most likely to be able to catch, and how players respond to Sja coming under threat will likely help us profile and identify converts. That being said, any Elim is good - if we have the opportunity to pursue a convert subject, definitely we should go for that anyway. Any Elim we takes down punts Team Sja further from their nefarious goals. As I alluded to earlier, I was set up with a PM at start C2. I had initially assumed that the Other (I will refer to them as Spook) was an Envoyform, but interestingly, Spook denied setting the PM up. My initial assumption was therefore that Spook could be safely removed from the pool of Sja candidates, but this has turned out to be untrue. Now, of course, Spook has incentive to do so, regardless, but suppose Spook is truthful. The implication is that Dai-Gonarthis (henceforth DG) has been the one to set up a PM, and likely set up a bunch of them in order to blend in and to KGB this game. Either way you slice it, by OoA and rules, the PM starter had to be a Villager. My profile for potential DGs include up to four players. I’ve noted that I consider Spook to be one of them. I think it is possible that Illwei is another. A. Conversion Prospects Well, let’s take a brief aside. Who could Sja go for, as a convert? I asterisk Drought and Elk because I think that filing them in this category depends on whether you’re going off C1, or whether you’re running off a different knowledge base. Clearly, Sja isn’t prescient and therefore wouldn’t know that Drought would return C2. I would file Drought here without hesitation anyway, but my read of Drought’s profile is unfortunately based off QF29. Essentially, these is the player set you look at if you’re going for thread control. I asterisk TJ – he’s not always low profile but has been slightly lower in this game and the previous one. These are players who can be considered to dodge a decent chunk of suspicion. Illwei, Mat, Quinn, and I think a whole bunch of players have commented about how players who stick their heads above the parapet C1 tend to get shot real fast. These are the players who know how to survive. I asterisk Drought depending on which game you profile Drought from. Spook brought up a good point. The point of exercising the conversion mechanic is for Sja to have a hand in directly selecting her teammates. In other words, Sja is likely to choose someone to minimise the risk that her teammate will go inactive, or the risk that she will have to roll the dice on pinch-hitters. There are exceptions. For instance, if Illwei is Sja, going with Az might not be an issue as she knows his activity level better, and might be able to feed off the team synergy. But in general, I think Spook is correct: Sja is unlikely to want to get an inactive teammate, and unlikely to want to roll the dice on pinch-hitters. The whole point of choosing your convert is you get to choose: willingly surrendering that to RNGesus and risk getting a pinch-hitter to plays completely differently to what you intended to look for would be a bit odd. I think decent activity will be something Sja looks for, no matter what. The real question is whether Sja will convert among the [ACTIVE THREAD] set or the [LOW PROFILE] set. I think it makes more sense for Sja to go for a [LOW PROFILE] player in order to minimise her footprint and to let the more active players tear each other apart, but Sja may not have the same strategic priorities. It is also possible that Sja will convert in such a way as to cover her own deficiencies. B. Who is Sja? Let’s return to talk of my lynch from early to mid-cycle. On the assumption that I am Village and unconverted (otherwise, there’s really no point in me doing this analysis), I’ve indicated it’s unlikely to me that Sja would actively push my lynch. The one exception is Illwei, due to her chaotic tendencies. But let’s leave Illwei aside for now. There are really two – technically three – paths for Sja and convert to plot through the discussion at that stage. We have built into this assumption that I am Village and I am unconverted. The corollary is that Sja wanted to leave me alive as a distraction. The obvious question then is how this fits into Sja’s play for the cycle. There are two ways Sja can benefit from this: First, Sja can choose to quietly slip onto my lynch as a second or third voter, leaving most of the attention on the noisy early voters. Relooking at the cycle, Illwei was first voter – Mat flirted with the idea but never committed. Tani banded on, and Az was third. I think Mat mooting the idea and sort of leaving it there but not committing could fit with a Sja/Sja Convert that wants to make sure the Village takes the bait, but not wanting to get blowback. I think Tani and Az both had opportunistic extra votes. It is unlikely that both Sja and convert are on the same train, however. Second, Sja can choose to oppose my lynch, or push back against it. In this category, we have Drought, who makes a big post on this, Araris with a side-vote on Tani and a lukewarm “Maybe don’t kill Kas this cycle”, and Elan, who joins my vote on Illwei. I feel like Drought’s big stand is not likely to have so much pay-off for Sja, as it risks drawing attention. It’s fine for a convert, though. I am divided about this as I think in general that strategies to gain trust (e.g. challenging bad lynches) aren’t as rewarding in a game with ongoing conversions. (Basically, what blocks the ‘Surely Sja must have converted X’ reasoning from destroying that trust the next cycle?) This means of this category, Araris and Elan stand out as potentially more suspicious to me. TJ suggests scanning me: I’ve pointed out this sounds great in theory but could end up exposing our action scanner unnecessarily, making it a poor trade-off. It’s worth noting that TJ has also been non-committal – I don’t think I’ve seen him vote this cycle but could be wrong. There’s complete non-interaction too: Chantara, who admittedly needs to catch up, and we haven’t seen xino show up, I don’t think. Same for TUO, Az, Elk, and Mint (who is being replaced, so understandable.) What’s really interesting is that of the complete non-interaction group, there’s just Elk and xino who are likely to fit an activity profile search from a conversion-minded Sja. I think Sja would be more likely to be in the opposition or non-interaction group, with the exception of Mat flirting with the idea and veering off onto Tani. I think Araris is another option: but I do not have a particularly strong suspicion of Araris and as such am happy to lock in a tie between both of them. I do not really want to cast a killing vote for Illwei when Illwei is not here and when we're this pissed off with each other as I think it bad form. I apologise unreservedly for making you feel this way. If it is better, I shall endeavour to ignore you from this point on. In the spirit of pre-rollover honesty, this is exactly the same reaction I've had to your posts on me since C1 and I've never felt this way towards you before either.
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I'm not saying you baiting me into fights on this, intentionally. I'm saying the initial fight was bait and I took it, and I shouldn't have, because it's ultimately a distraction. You are further being disingenuous here on two counts. First, a tunnel is not a tunnel simply because you assert it is one. Second, you saying you refuse to interact because of what you claim is a tunnel on you, has nothing to do with: A. the ongoing fight about Sja's strategy, since more players than just me have already stated we feel Sja would take a different approach, and B. I was talking to Drought, not to you. No? Why can't I? It's perfectly consistent for you to have in general repeated the same points over and over, and at the same time, to have said nothing at all last cycle about worries of shutting off discussion, and at the same time, to have refused to foster the discussion you claimed was shut down. There is no contradiction here, and it is disingenuous of you to insinuate that there is one. In fact, this is a new point against you from me - that if you don't bring this up last cycle and brought this up only this cycle and this late, it is insincere and performative; it reads more like an attempt to rack Village points than serious concerns about discussion. If you want to fight this on a literal level, I am happy to concede it is literally untrue that you are repeating the same points over and over. I am also happy to argue you are not substantively introducing new points. The very fact that a decent chunk of your posts this cycle are complaints about tunneling, non-interaction, and that Sja would have killed C1 already points to this. And this is deflection: the point remains that it reeks of raw performativeness to only have qualms about discussion now and to have done nothing at all about it when given the opportunity to actually change the state of affairs you so lament. Okay, but then why didn't you last cycle? Good, because I assure you I don't appreciate your dismissiveness either. Sure: you expressed suspicion of Mat and me for expressing our thoughts that Sja would kill C1. If you prefer, you can express suspicion of Mat and me for expressing our thoughts that Sja would kill C1 and at the same time, think that Araris and TJ - who have mentioned the exact same thoughts - - are perfectly hunky-dory. The question would then be why.
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Are you trying to say we should lynch you if it's E/V >>
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Here's the thing. So why didn't Village Illwei point this out last cycle? It's all and very well for Illwei to point this out now as though it's suspicious for everyone else to not notice it. For the record, it was in my mega-post late last cycle, as I was weighing the odds between accidentally getting people off my case, and seeing if I could fake Sja out. We know Sja went for a conversion play. While you don't find this informative, this is informative to everyone else who expected a kill play. It is logically and statistically impossible for all of Mat, Araris, TJ, and myself to be Sja and convert, so your position is not as intuitively or immediately obvious as you insist it is, and if you stringently objected to terminating discussion, you should have: A. Actively fostered discussion C1, B. Spoken out against this. This reads like a belated and half-hearted attempt to deflect suspicion and collect Village credit and I'm back to thinking I shouldn't have given you a pass for the moment just for being in the DG suspect pool. You don't get to complain about it being an awful plan or bemoan the lack of discussion if you weren't bothering to call it out or foster any. That's performative. You know what? Frick it. Araris, Illwei. And Az makes a valid point about you voting beside me as well. Conversions are limited, and burning charges wantonly burns Sja's lynch resistance/NK resistance and increases Sja's team profile and trace. That's a consideration as well - lynches are less informative when there are fewer connections to be drawn. That is something Sja has to take into consideration too. This is the whole fecking point. That there is no straightforwardly, obviously correct strategy, and your suspicions are based on the fact people disagree with you on this. You complain that people are not engaging with you. We have pointed out other considerations that matter or should matter to Sja. You continue to kick and scream we are not interacting with you. You dismiss - in the process - these points as well and then accuse people of not interacting with you. At this point, it is nothing more than self-congratulatory foot-stomping. You think some considerations are more important to Sja. So be it. Clearly, other players disagree with you. I don't see a way to resolve this because there is no fricking interaction - you're just restating your points again and again and dismissing any attempt at engagement as being pointless. So be it. If you do not want interaction or engagement, if you do not want to actually take a shot at points, if you just want to repeat your point instead, then you do not get to blame people for refusing to interact with you. I'm not going to waste further time on you or this. See rejoinder to Illwei: it is, but it also makes it easier for you to be picked up on and presents connections. Conversions do not set the Village very far back when there are no reads and trusts. It sets the Village further back when these have solidified. At this point, I still don't understand why you are trying to dispute this. Illwei's basis for suspicion is ever-shifting but at one point, appears to have been because people don't share her take on how Sja would play - specifically, the people who expressed the thought Sja would kill C1 instead. My suspicion of Illwei has been based off of Illwei specifically building in a defensive assumption into her wargaming rather than the more natural Villager assumption of fog-of-war: it has nothing to do with the conclusion she reached, or I would and should have also been suspicious of you and Elan. My point is that this assumption flows more naturally from an Elim mindset, as seen by how you aren't actually reaching the same conclusion via that assumption. I am, in any case, further triggered by the points I have mentioned above, so I'm shifting my vote yet again apparently. In fact, as you point out, Villagers can and do disagree on strategy, so that should be a further point against @ing the entire <Araris, TJ, me, Mat> set on the basis of "I don't see that being a valid play", because the point is not about which of us is right or what we see, or what we hope the game will be played like, but what most accurately captures Sja's mindset. The point of trying to accurately model or profile Sja is to be able to identify Sja. Identifying the true, correct optimal strategy for Sja is a distraction because we are not in the business of doing Sja's job for her and that's counter to what we want, so I'm not inclined to get baited into further fights about this.
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Indeed, truly a Villager response. Unable to respond, the subject simply chooses to deflect or to ignore all accusations, hoping to brazen past suspicion by sheer force of will.
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That's why I think it's a good place for Sja or a convert to be! Safe side-vote on Tani. What's not to like? Two most likely options, in my view: 1. Hide on Kas train late -> second, third voter position, emphasis third. 2. Disengaged from train but also points out Kas is Not The Best of Ideas -> Elan, you, a number of inactives. TJ is technically a late arrival and disengaged, Mat has flirted with the idea but is not serious about it. Edited to add: Yet.
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I had initially actually thought it was just one person Specifically, that the evidence only indicated one particular player was unlikely to be Sja. You can probably infer why. Edited to add: I actually consider this to be the conventional doctrine, TBH Edited to add 2: First, BAM could also have scanned me to be stormform. Though this would say nothing about convert status. Second, this is actually true regardless of whether I am a convert because Sja would likely want me to make the kill if so - that's the main advantage of an early conversion, really. That being said, we're back to a IKYK for an action scanner because suppose the action scanner revealed themselves. If I'm Sja, I'm down three or four charges because of C1. The lynch kills me. End of. If I'm not Sja, Sja is down one or two charges because of C1. The action scanner is an obvious kill or convert since Sja cannot be roleblocked, and the action scanner is a bigger threat than BAM anyway. That could be a non-promising play from the action scanner's perspective - convert Kas versus losing action scanner isn't necessarily the best pay-off. Would require the action scanner to have a PM with someone else, but then you run conversion risk. Third, bold to depend on an action scanner when there's no guarantee there's one in the game or that they're even active Though to be fair, I feel like a conversion game with zero scanners of any sort is weighted too heavily against the Village so it's probably a reasonable bet we have both.
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I feel like I haven't made my point clear enough. And just because Illwei playing like DeathClutch or Cow or Hellscythe is really pissing me off doesn't mean I should channel the same 'lolwhatever i'm right lel kek' dismissive attitude, so I'm going to come in and do this again. Sorry Eiwlil, sorry guys, time to be professional about this. 1. I actually don't really give a frick about how correct Eiwlil is or thinks she is. Nothing is at stake with regard to debating about Sja-anat profiles so there is no point in jumping into the mudpit to brawl because the only correct profile is the profile that captures how Sja-anat is actually playing this game and how Sja-anat actually strategises and sees her strategic position. This only matters because I let myself be goaded into a pointless argument, and because it only matters insofar as that Eiwlil thinks it's weird that Mat and I and Araris think that Sja would kill D1. There are good strategic reasons for Sja to kill C1 and to hold off. There are also good strategic reasons for Sja to grab a conscript C1 (allowing her faction to kill and convert simultaneously.) Ultimately, it's a Sja profile problem. The question isn't who is right about Sja, it's which profile maps best onto how Sja is playing and what how Sja is playing tells us about who Sja is and what constraints she faces or finds important. I am alarmed by Eiwlil's wargaming and it's because Eiwlil's arguments on Sja's strategic reasoning are fundamentally predicated on Sja being cornered by C2 or C3 in a lynch with no recourse. But...why would she? Realistically, Village fog of war is a thing. A Villager reasoning about Sja working out her options has less reason to assume that coming under lynch threat on C3 is automatically a game-ender for Sja if Sja hasn't converted by then. Villagers bicker, lynch trains get pushback. Potential for a conversion (see: Even Cycle fog of war) makes matters worse for the Village because we simply have no clear insight as to what goes down C2. To claim that projecting how an Elim behaves requires taking up the Elim's perspective is straightforwardly true. It is disingenuous of Illwei to claim this is what I'm arguing. I'm not - I think it is a basic requirement. I do think that if your thoughts on 'what Sja is going to do, what strategic constraints Sja is operating under' bake in assumptions about being backed into a corner C3, that's a bit more alarming. I don't see this as a natural assumption for a Villager trying to do Elim projection - you are very aware of how fog-of-war, exacerbated by conversions, influences Village behaviour and pushes it towards the chaotic. It's that note that doesn't ring right to me and is driving my vote. That being said, I've received some information - more on that later. 2. On the supposition I am not Sja and not a convert: The sudden push towards me, as I have argued, does not look good on Illwei, Drought, Araris, and Az. I add Elan to the list, because I am counterintuitive enough to suspect people voting for one of my suspects. The KGB is a circle of accountability. I think it looks worse on Araris and Elan, potentially Mat, as Mat has flirted with the idea but ultimately backed off. Here's the issue. We are already supposing I am not Sja, and I am not a convert. Let's build another assumption into this model: that Sja converted C1 rather than played mindgames or was inactive. Our assumptions so far require us to claim Sja did not convert me. Here's the question. What considerations would make Sja do that? Clearly, Sja either felt - rightfully, I would argue - I was a waste of a conversion charge. Sja also likely knew or anticipated that leaving me alive would mean I would be a natural target of discussion and potentially the lynch the next cycle. The question then, is where this fits Sja's strategic calculus. With the exception of Illwei, I don't think Sja would spearhead my lynch. There's little to be gained from getting involved in a bad lynch, and my flip must surely render suspicion on at least one of those pushing my lynch. Az's vote, however, is opportunistic - buried in the noise with just enough distance to look reasonably engaged with the game but also to kick the train on. It's not a bad place to be as Sja or a convert. He is not, however, my strongest Sja candidate. I have previously said I think Drought is a good place for Sja to be. Pushing against my lynch is a good way to gain Village credit, while allowing for the lynch to happen anyway because Sja don't care. I'd file Elan and Araris in this category, as stacking a second vote on Illwei is also not a bad place for Sja to be, and still allows the chance to resist a bad lynch. However, I am less sold on this line of reasoning now. Suppose a conversion goes off on C2, or at least, the Village must assume so. Being vocally against a bad lynch carries with it less rewards and more risk than it would in a normal SE game. Namely, because what's to stop the Village from assuming next cycle that as someone who was against a bad lynch, Drought would surely be trusted, Sja would surely know this, and would surely convert Drought? Allowing my lynch, even as Sja pushes back against it, unnecessarily exposes her to the same line of reasoning used to damn me. That's not so good for her. Corruptions are pernicious precisely because we don't know when they go off (anymore, given the assumption a convertee exists) and therefore a player gaining trust does not mean they can be trusted the next cycle. TJ is correct to point out previously that players do not revise beliefs as much as they should, so Drought might still be a good place for Sja to be, but I think there's weak reason to expect Sja and her convert would prefer to be disengaged or weakly engaged with the lynch than taking a prominent position on it. Slightly higher credence on Elan or Araris. The above reasoning points me to Mat, but I think Mat is too high-profile a conversion choice, though nothing stops Mat from being Sja. I would also look once again at players like Elk or xino as potential convert options who aren't involved with this. 3. I received evidence earlier this cycle - or weak reason to think, I suppose, that three to four players in this game are unlikely to be Sja. It has been clarified to me that the set is bigger than I thought, and that one of them is potentially Illwei, so I am shifting to another candidate.
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Wrong and outright false. You're dodging the accusation. Everyone else is strategising about what Sja would do given various constraints. You are the only one specifically channelling a defensive Elim perspective. Thinking like an Elim doesn't involve thinking as though you're backed into a corner. Elan, Illwei. This is a crem dung conflation you're making. "I don't have a counterargument so I'm going to assert I'm right because I'm Illwei." crem dung. "I can't engage, but whateve, that's not going to stop me." My previous short paragraph already pointed out there is a distinction between adopting a TMI perspective, thinking as a defensive Elim, and strategising for Sja. Everyone else is capable of distinguishing between the two, so why can't you? Suspicious. Illwei. My point exactly. Drought and Elan are - openly at least - arguing for not making the kill N1 but neither of them are specifically talking like a defensive, cornered Sja when working out Sja's strategy. I call crem dung. I still disagree. Even on the assumption Sja feels early conversion pressure, what does Sja have to lose by waiting for N2? Easily masked by a Cher kill. Easy to guess I'd still attract most of the discussion and attention the next day. Every single argument I've seen, including Illwei's, immediately supposes an argument to kill C1 is also an argument to kill C2, which is partly true by induction but also patently ridiculous because C2 is different in one crucial way: Cher kills C2, and can be induced to double kill by the right interactions. Moreover, Sja's overall game plan Edited to add, trailed off halfway: is obviously situational and will change. Relying on induction "Sja doesn't kill C1 so doesn't kill C2 and is suddenly cornered on C3" in order to sell a Sja early conversion as the rational strategy is therefore intellectually dishonest. Tldr; better hope Illwei is a conversion Elim because that's how you lose a game It's a bloody stupid strategy either way you look at it. Sorry. I wish I could pull my punches but after two cycles of increasingly ridiculous crap from Illwei, I'm not bothering anymore. Player-wise, it's awful - I don't often stay off the radar, and haven't been playing this game quietly, which is a bad place for Sja to go. That's not even including the fact I haven't been Elim in forever and therefore don't know how to Elim. Conversely, even assuming a conversion (or mindgames), Sja has every reason to hit anyone except me, precisely because I've been mooted as a target. It's a good way to avoid attention. I'm going to say that once I flip Village, I would lynch Illwei. I also think Drought is immediately suspicious, as is Az. Az is voting opportunistically and is a good place for a quiet Sja to hide; Illwei an aggressive Sja. I lean more strongly to a Drought Sja because on the assumption I flip Village, this is what will have happened: You will all have realised that Sja has allowed a bad lynch to happen and specifically didn't convert me to allow the lynch. I think forcing the issue would be too on the nose for any Sja not Illwei, so this doesn't exonerate Illwei. Otherwise, I would look at Drought (for resisting this), potentially Araris (same position, but less involved), and Az for opportunism. No, I'm voting you because I'm suspicious of you but spinning this to the thread as retaliatory voting to immediately nullify any points on you is a crap move or an Elim move. You can try to assert all you like but it's wishful thinking. Wishful thinking doesn't make me Evil as much as you want it to fit your narrative because you might otherwise have to...actually engage withy the game. How about: I was a converter Elim in LG6 and Illwei blatantly ignoring my behaviour there is interesting to me. Yeah, that didn't fly, did it? Considering I was lolwhatevering LG80 and focusing on Wrath, and considering Illwei went to C2 me, I think it's amazingly Illwei-centric to assume I'd give a damn or have reason to actually remember much of that game beyond Elim Illwei pushing Chantara and then half-taking-it-back. Oh wait, you did say you want to make D2 Kas a thing, isn't it? Sure explains why most of your arguments about me are so speculative they might as well belong in a fiction anthology. Edited to add: I'm going to say I'm down for being lynched this cycle if that's what it takes for you to lynch one of <Illwei, Drought, Araris, Az> off my flip. Knock yourselves out. But for the love of Odium, please look back at this one short sentence if nothing else - knowing my flip tells you a bit more about how Sja played C1, and they each embody a different Sja profile but are in places a specific Sja would want to be. Look also for those with low engagement with the lynch - these will be those who know it is a bad lynch and don't want to get involved.
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............. Note to self, stay far away. Can't chase the GM off my porch though, wouldn't be right. Rest of you stay off! That's fair yeah. I don't think it'd be the most strategic choice on Sja's part but that being said, I saved my database so I can game again and thus can't say I'd be disappointed to be dead
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Without setting a bad gamethrowing example, I cannot say I wouldn't be appreciative as I should probably go back to playing Wrath and Sja can't target dead players. Hope you're not Village though because that flip won't look too hot on you and I'd rather not everyone waste a cycle chasing their tail on you otherwise :eyes:
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Get. Off. My. Porch. The fact that this fits Sja's current profile is interesting and definitely makes me take a second look at Eiwlil. Except that you've created an artificial dichotomy within your calculus in order to gerrymander your argument into functioning. But Sja can survive a Night Kill. Why would Sja feel urgency to convert? In fact, NKs only burn one charge, so getting lynched is - on balance - worse for Sja. This is the artificial dichotomy. The moment Sja converts anyone, all reads become dubious. Anyone will be scrutinised - the perspective that this will immediately be bad for Sja is the perspective of TMI and seems to suggest you're thinking a little too distantly from Village fog-of-war. Your reasoning relies on a specific, gerrymandered scenario where Sja is under threat from one persistent player and the threat is sufficient to get Sja lynched, to the point Sja has to do something about it. In a conversion game with multiple players, and with one-on-one PMs. Only Dai-Gonarthis can create up to four, if at all. I don't see why converting the threat means they have to change their reads. They don't. This works on the assumption that Sja is going to be the top suspicion and pursued relentlessly. How does the Village get so organised that Sja gets this cornered by C2 or C3, especially when C2 is the ideal cycle to hide activity because of Cher? Ultimately the main thing this discussion is doing is making me more suspicious of Illwei and it's led me to the thought that Illwei's logic is predicated on Sja attracting enough attention she feels she needs a convertee. I think this would convince me to look towards the slightly more active players rather than the inactives: being under the radar is a sweet spot for Sja and that Sja is unlikely to feel pressure to convert, assuming that's what happened this cycle rather than mindgames. But the cycle is yet young and I'd like to hear from Elan first. Edited to add: The point is that being a negative read doesn't entail being on the lynch menu. Eliding that difference points to Elim hypersensitivity. There's a fine needle to thread between being suspicious and suspicious enough to be top of the lynch. I'm not comfortable with this elision and I feel that strategic read of Sja just seems to come more naturally from the Elim siege mentality.
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You seem moderately sincere but I am wary of strange bears bearing Greeks - sorry, I mean strange Greeks bearing... I'm wary of strangers. Especially those with honeyed words. If it isn't a bother, I'd like you to go find your own porch please, without trying to Murder me this time. Real question: Is it a bear-shaped bus or a bus-shaped bear?
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It's just one datapoint, so I would be careful not to put too much weight on it. But I'd say for me: (-) Mat, (-) TJ - weaker credences for them because I read them as being a bit more conventional in Elim doctrine though I could be wrong. Normally I'd increase my Araris credence because Araris is capable of risky play, but Araris isn't really the type to surrender tempo to the Village once the Village has surrendered it, so I guess I'd split the difference and go zero delta. (+) Elan, (+) Illwei - they're the players to go for unconventional doctrines and Illwei especially has wanted to go unconventional for some time. Not enough data on Chantara. The LG80 soothe suggests some risk tolerance, and the refusal to claim caution but also a slightly different strategic doctrine. Slight (+) for xino - I think xino has that unconventional edge to his play. Very slight for Elk but still a (+) because of the Elariel issue. Anyone I've missed - Drought, Mint etcetera, not enough info to really shift beliefs on. Slight (-) for Tani - I think Tani doesn't specifically go ham on mindgames, and that's what this strat would fundamentally be. Elan.
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Gotcha But no, I'd expected to be a kill target actually. I didn't do it just to troll I swear... Survivals are written up, roleblocks are not. But Sja is not roleblockable so either Sja chose to do nothing (unlikely, but I could see a certain profile of player go for this - mindgames at no real cost due to both Village and Sja skipping a tempo, plus the possibility of camouflage with a Cher kill), or more likely, Sja went for her first convert, as Mat pointed out.
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Interesting. No vote missing. @Ashbringer, can Nergaoul turn their vote into a no vote? Smokespren or Nergaoul, most likely. Also, get off my porch, bear-shaped thing! You heard me!
