Kasimir

Hi again JNV! Nice to hear from you! Given your thoughts, would you be willing to vote for Devotary? TJ @ us this whole game with his PAFO rampage: ngl the idea of polar bear!Archer having to perform CPR for unresponsive Mat is a hilarious mental image, thank u Edited to add: I see you have Araris on the brain a lot Yeah, Orlok was mistaken. Orlok and I had an exchange around p. 3 or so - shortly after his table - where I flagged to him that black text in the writeup (role flip bit) didn't mean Mat wasn't Village, just meant we weren't getting an alignment flip yet, and he acknowledged he'd just assumed. AFAIK/Given our current info, assumption is still that this coming rollover will give us Mat's alignment flip. Until then, we still have an exe to wrangle

Also I think you mean non-Village and Orlok, I don't see anywhere Araris said Mat was confirmed non-Evil, and if he did, appreciate if you flag it for me because this could be Interesting :eyes:

We don't know anything! We likely have to wait one more cycle for a flip, Jon Snow!

That's why I said revise if necessary. Even a deepwolf has to bite eventually. Elan had to choose between making strategically bad choices for her team, bad votes/framings, or... you know My current view is that it's not impossible which is why I don't want to dismiss it out of hand, but it's C2, and no one has much of a voting track record yet. We'll see as things go along, IMO. Archer is too active a player not to be catchable when flips happen (sorry Archer, but you said the same of me and I agree ) I fully agree with paranoia as the Last Son of House Urbain, just feel that unless we have compelling reason, operative trust isn't bad either since we will get more evidence as cycles go on. (And of course, though I say this, we don't see the world in which Beagle completely scammed me and Tyrian was cursed and I run into this game screaming about how you should never trust Ever because Trusting Gets You Shot In The Face (And You're To Blame.)) Note that the confirmed villager cases are exactly that - so less of concern. I think the part about the risk I find compelling from Aman's logic is that if he's wrong about the existence of Village Epics and MLs a bunch of Regulars, he immediately gets voted out. Agreed about risk appetite though so I think we are broadly in agreement that absolute trust/roleclearing should not happen I should note I have applied this reasoning to Araris before, and I've not yet been bitten by it, so I fully expect to get stabbed in the back at some point because Araris and Archer are tricky that way I asked this for a specific reason and that's that I feel there's a certain implication there if you have certain views about the votes from C1 Agreed. Do think some parts of it will be wait and see. Think it's important to interact with both worlds when trying to work out the exe, yeah. We don't have one reason to favour one over the other yet so acting as though one is true and the other not gets us in for (potentially) a world of hurt.

I don't want to get too into the weeds, but here's the thing. Look at the TUA / Aman case, where they 'confirmed' each other via the Vanilla/Regular distinction and context. For a role that you can reasonably expect to be repeated (even if it isn't actually repeated in the distro), e.g. Scientist, Demolitionist (AFAIK not in this game, just the first example that came to mind), allowing the player to give the actual role name or further GM flavour text pretty much confirms to any Demolitionist out there that you are in fact that role, especially since this is a blackout game. This is less exacerbated for Epics due to (as you've seen in Karn's case and mine) proper names being uniquely identifying - and the fact that Karn or myself could be lying since you really just have to take our word for it. IMO, Scientist of the Knighthawk falls towards the 'could reasonably expect duplication' side - I don't think every player would necessarily place emphasis on the GM flavour text saying the scientist - I certainly wouldn't as I know not all GMs pay the same amount of close attention to flavour text when writing it up. Wyrm is very precise in his writing but not everyone is Wyrm. Yes, and I don't want to really subordinate game mechanics too much to flavour since it's clear that I don't have a weakness and no claimed Epic has contradicted me so far, and when I asked TJ on it, he swore at me and told me I didn't have one, then finally asked me if it was that important to me that I have one (I said no FYI ) so I feel like it's clear there are limits to how much this game is pulling on flavour. I'd rather look at what mechanically makes sense from a balance perspective than expect maximal faithfulness. I'm leaving out first convert guesses because I think that's too meta dependent. I think we have a slightly higher chance of catching Sja compared to the first convert because first convert would by definition be Village C1 and therefore we can't look for a first convert by looking for Elim behaviour C1 - for that, we'd have to do a C1/C2 comparison analysis. In [Convert World], TUA is absolutely of interest to me because of the vanilla claim. I went into LG6 knowing I scanned as a regular so I immediately claimed regular, and Gamma was willing to tell me the contents of the regular GM PM. FWIW, while setting up the fake Seeker scan, I actually asked El and Fifth for input on what a Seeker would scan for a Regular Spiked, so as much as the players were disagreeing and saying it had to be vanilla, they confirmed they had no real nomenclature and that Regular Spiked would do. It's not unusual for players to ask for GM PM contents. Now, I say this only to undercut it because I think the casualness/speed of the exchange means that TUA didn't ask and it's a weird sort of thing to ask about and try to set up. So the only way in [Convert World] TUA is Sja is if we assume the Sja role PM says something specifically about regulars, and something about Epics. Same deal for Archer in [Convert World] - TJ was aggressively PAFOing all questions about write-up informativeness with regard to alignment, and ex hypothesi, Sja starts as a lone Elim. The fact Archer essentially predicted that there would be no alignment flip should more or less clear him of being Sja in [Convert World.] In [Regular SE World], I take Aman's point about the phrasing probably being different, and I do think it means currently a lower credence on E!TUA, but Beagle happens, so I'd just say that on my part, I'm prepared to re-evaluate later on if the situation demands it. In [Regular SE World], the main issue isn't with regard to role but that Archer unhesitatingly and fairly early on simply called that Village Epics exist. I do agree with Aman's logic that's one hell of a risk unless the Elim team has some role that interacts with Village Epics, so there's some way to predict that there are Village Epics, but without full sight of the distro, I think I'm happy to put Archer in my upper (but not highest) Village tier for now, subject to revision where necessary, because Beagle happens The more I look at this, the more the context is what confuses me. Because I agree, and I think there was commentary late cycle, about what was provoking the votes on Stick. But why would voting Stick help make sense of what was provoking the already-existing votes on Stick? Because the opposite construal is the train on Mat was refusing to die, and then you tied things off, and to Mat voters, that also looks like a vacuous train coming forward again (and surely you agree it at least seemed vacuous then, since even Stick voter Illwei flagged it, and you yourself wanted to see why the votes were happening), so from their point/our point of view, there's effort to save Mat by advancing a train that...no one knows why Striker and Tani got onto. So I guess just to get things straight, and if I missed something you said earlier, my apologies as I'm functioning at 30% this game/cycle and I'd just like everything in one place: Do you currently think Mat/Stick was V/V? Let's bracket Karn for now. What do you think of the Karn voters? Do you specifically think I'm E/E with: Archer, Aman, or Araris? (Wow so many As and just one K. LG83 foreshadowing much?) Do you still think Stick said anything to provoke the votes she accumulated? What do you think of the motivations/grounding behind the votes on Stick? @Araris Valerian - I know you keep saying to think about whether something makes sense from an Elim perspective. Do you currently think Mat/Stick was V/V? Let's bracket Karn for now. What specifically do you dislike about Experience? I've glanced at your posts but I'd appreciate a tldr; for my tired brain. The real question that prompted this: if you're at least lightly committed to E!Devo, how would you say that E!Devo's behaviour makes sense for E!Devo in terms of the D1 Stick vote? I'm getting flashbacks to wrangling Araris in the game that cannot be mentioned and I'm grumpy about it, while I'm also aware the flashbacks are probably because I'm tired, stressed, and unable to think well >> Edited to add: I myself am surprised. But it's just one of those irrational things that sticks so hard with me because I'm 100% aware I have a tendency to do that as a Villager. I don't do it all the time and I haven't in recent memory though at one point when Mat sold me on him being V (during my swinging to and fro on 'is Mat Evil', you'll note in C1 I directly asked him if he would be cool with trading for a train on me.) It's probably a partial mindmeld thing where I know I do it as Village and therefore just can't really see it as coming from an Evil perspective. As I said, I should probably rethink you at any rate, because anchoring on just one piece of evidence is bad and I'm not sure it's that strong. Edited to add 2: No, Orlok is suffering from the thread length and missed that we don't get an alignment flip. He thought black text meant Mat was of non-Village alignment.

Possible he thought that this was leaning too much into GM PM info? Because I really didn't dare to go into Cobb territory for fear of breaking rules, and DMing Elan indicated that this has to be handled carefully for reasons. Either way: Not to say he can't still be neutral tomorrow, but I think minimally, we're committed to the claim we can't know right now, so I'd agree it could go either way. Otherwise, Archer can't play twenty questions with Mat. I would not lean too hard on them being the immediate converts, no. I think the 'only Epics can convert' assumption is dangerous (and then watch Mat flip E tomorrow and a decent chunk of the conversion talk ends up wasted ) and I'd agree it'll probably functionally work like your Sja game if so. Though speaking of your Sja game... Obviously a lot of it is at the mercy of a converter Elim's strategic picture. I could see what happened in your Sja game again, where they go for a low profile convert first in order to get a person to put in the kills (with the actions economy, roles might even be unattractive for an initial convert) and leave the chatty people to side-eye and ML each other first. A more inexperienced Sja isn't impossible, as Araris noted, but might favour a different convert profile to hold down the fort. And so on. I'm going to repeat what Awes told me in the MR1 dead doc, which is that sometimes you just have to accept you don't have enough information at the moment to constructively make an informed assessment. I think the solo converter issue really matters only insofar as we're choosing between two worlds: A. E!Mat put in the kill; the lynch came first, and he was blocked. (Or the kill went in on Striker, or the kill went in on Mat but not because he was V Mat, but because there was last minute panic over the swing to Karn...) This world entails there's a team we can find. We just have to treat it like a straight-up SE game. In this world, my reads list straightforwardly applies, though I'm rethinking some people at the moment. Trying to work out how I feel about Tani, Karn, and Devo, since I agree with what Archer flagged. B. Corrupter converted someone. This world entails we have to look more carefully because there's a smaller footprint. In particular, I do think the Corrupter would steer clear of the last minute Karn mess C1 so I am agreed with Araris's analysis on that front - too much volatility, and they would by definition be aware that any late movement involving V/V/V trains would be poorly-received, so they would choose to steer clear. We have to look at people who were disengaged or had stable votes. In this world, I would put as my pool the entire set of semi-actives who weren't involved in volatility: <Mint, TUA, Danex, JNV, Szeth, Orlok>, technically, you too, and I feel that some of the EoC stable voters could apply too, e.g. Devo, Stick (but then this is a bit odd because it makes our three trains all Village-on-Village action which is not impossible but possibly not the most appealing pill to swallow.) [Edited to add: Illwei would work too.] Disagree with Araris about Experience, though I worry I'm overanchoring on Experience's stated willingness to die for Mat, so I guess I need to relook Experience. Due to actions economy, it can't be Karn or myself, and there's no Rioting counterclaim anyway. In theory could be Archer and/or Striker but that's easily disproven. Feels like the best way to split the difference is to vote on someone suspicious in both worlds. This is a brief analysis, again, need a relook. Who you gonna call? Someone else

Yellow by Coldplay. I like this thought. That's interesting. I don't think we have a vig kill but you never know - @|TJ| are vig kills and NKs distinguished? - but otherwise, unless they actually actively sacrifice a teammate, feels like the person you talk to is almost necessarily confirmed V if you go with the NK victim. Wyrm ran something like that and I co-GMed it but the win con was a bit more complicated. Generally agree with this take. Okay, fair. I'll agree with this evaluation - the vote stuck, and as I recall, Devo played it out as: But I assume this has to be minimally a preference for Stick over Mat or disinterest in the trains, and the latter is mildly scary given pretty much everyone baiting (even Aman) had an interest. So alright, guess I'm due a re-read of Devo's C2. If we're committed to V/V Mat/Stick, then I assume this becomes weirder for E!Devo, but I'm not sure I'm committed to V/V Mat/Stick. But my train stability issue is different from the Karn-Devo interaction there - Ash flagged it out, but my train stability issue is that stable trains seem to indicate people aren't especially concerned or committed to rethinking, which is hella scary given the number of people pointing out there wasn't strong reasoning for the Stick train (sure, you could argue the Mat train was a tunnel, but I re-evaluated the reasons myself and the asymmetry was obvious, which makes a number of the votes seem opportunistic.)

If he was a neutral, why not just claim neutral? Meta is currently anti-killing the neutrals (hi AG7), and STINK's ISO gave him a good platform from which to just say "Actually, yeah, TBH, I'm neutral." Especially since Mat had also previously asked in thread about neutrals so he could anchor on his post and claim to be putting out feelers. Feel like saying "Yeah I don't seem Village because I'm neutral" especially after half a cycle of slogging and since he'd committed to dropping his role would go a longer way to keeping him alive than insisting he was a Villager. (Interesting though - E!Mat didn't take that option.) Yes So last cycle, I was just told my Riot was successful, with no targeting information. I've put in an official rule clarification request with TJ but from the looks of it, I don't get told so we would indeed have to guess - which is why I cautioned that this approach won't be a panacea, but more about gathering datapoints. Just gonna edit here: @Archer @Devotary of Spontaneity - I asked both cases anyway, and TJ just got back to me. The problems with mechanically clearing still occur with regard to B since as we've seen, it's written up as a traditional Riot. I apparently do not need Striker's cooperation after all (sorry Striker!) as TJ ruled that what matters is whether the redirected Riot hits a target that is valid (i.e. the target player has voted.) He told me PAFO on whether I'd be told if I got redirected, so I feel that the only way to find out is to put in a Riot order on Striker ( @StrikerEZ - my Riot order will be to Riot you on someone else, not yourself. I don't want to get you killed) for Science! From my current point of view, I feel like the odds we're going to solve this anytime soon are very low But also, take this from the guy who thought Ash would 1v13 the Village, I guess. And if it's conversion, our odds of solving this fast drop - partly because of the delayed lynch info, still no sign of info roles, and the fact that as long as we don't know that a conversion has gone off, or how many there are/left, and I don't see us consolidating and getting things in the bag soon. And that's not even to mention Aman's thoughts on events causing conversion or other effects! As I think Aman, myself, and Archer said - I'm open to the idea of working together, if, as you point out, the Elims can't kill you, then there's very little they can do except be uncooperative (obviously can't help you there), and the idea of going for a mutual win even if it means finagling things a bit more carefully like we had to in AG7 is appealing to me. Would like to hear everyone else's thoughts on this. Also RIP, I forgot Thaid and STINK still have votes on you -.- My AG8 votecount curse continues. I feel like it's an assumption that only Epics corrupt anyway. If we have a Calamity-type conversion, Regulars, too, could be easily converted/corrupted and given a power-set. You also forgot that we have claims from Stick and Archer, with Stick mentioning interesting things about her power-set. Could be like your Sja game, where the choice is between converting or killing C1, which means someone has been converted anyway. Though I am not fully sold on the idea we are up against a conversion team partly because this would mean TJ scammed me into playing his conversion game Though low-key tempted to suggest they convert Karn since he actually wants to be converted, though it's better for the Village if I get converted Dear conversion Elim: What? I laughed when Awes first did this in LG6, and I sometimes like to make SE callbacks Devo's and Araris's exchange on Stick is making me relook at my pool of candidates. My vote is chilling on Karn but I'll go ahead and pressure Szeth - @Szeth_Pancakes. Thoughts on Mat or the lack of a NK? The tldr; you requested for is there's no NK, the write-up shows you the vote trains, and there was a last minute near-CFD onto Karn.

:eyes: Uh-oh. If you're referring to my C1, I had two pools - will vote/won't vote, so it was very coarse-grained. She basically went into my "not voting for them" pool on the Archer C1 exchange on V!Epics - I felt she and Archer had crossed wires as she seemed to be making a RP point, but Archer was reading it as a roleclaim point. Which...tracks for Archer. Boiled down to me liking her point that Archer claiming V!Epic was a bold move (with the seeming implication that it's less likely for an Elim to want to do it.) Felt it was a nice reasonable take. I don't get any strong negative reads off her posts, but as of C2, she's back in null because of Stick train stability issues, which means I'm functionally indifferent to a lynch on her, with a commitment to re-assess once we actually have a Mat flip (and I have the bandwidth to do proper, focused vote analysis rather than sporadic thread stuff ) My question to you in turn would be: what's pinging you on Devo? Because she's never been the easiest player to read without vote analysis for me, minus one or two kayana games - and I think most of the times we found her, she was actually the mechanically-outed last Elim. So I think it's reasonable to assign more suspicion, but I just wonder what people are finding in her posts that I'm not, though I'm admittedly bad with pure post reads (as has been apparent enough times.)

C1 was 48 hours, you know I made the Cobb memes in - probably the first couple hours, and I see I don't seem to have posted them in the thread, which tracks since I was softing Regular. And then by the time I was actually analysing what to make of you/Devo/TUA et al in my longpost, my head just went "Welp, I'm a Rioter so God only knows about the Epics." By about 1610hrs on Friday, according to my timestamp, it sank back in, probably due to some thread post or other, at which point I lampshaded it to TJ who proceeded to laugh at me. But I mean, if you want to get side-tracked and do another LG79 again... If this was me, to put it very simply - I wasn't referring to regulars. I was referring to Aman specifically. I've played in his heydays where the dominant Elim meta was predominantly threat kill and Aman and Orlok tended to either have very short lifespans or to have to do kayana things to stay alive/get people to stop sussing them. And then there was the IKYK/sussing angle of "You're a Village analytical powerhouse, so why are you still alive" that usually went down those games. I don't want this to go into the rep debacle again, so this is more me noting that as Aman and I are both aware of his typical in-game lifespan, outing himself as a Regular seems to only increase his vulnerability to the NK which seems - tactically odd from a Village perspective so why do that. That's why I asked if the NK came after the lynch, because if it did, then maybe getting lynched blocked E!Mat from carrying it off. I do know Mat doesn't have the best history with checking with the GM (cf. MR49, MR53) but I feel like someone on that team should've asked it, seeing as the NK should be fairly important to them. It's not impossible but it's a tough pill to swallow IMO. So: I'm fundamentally willing to do vote manip this cycle, and I've mentioned I plan to, especially because that would mean I'm provably not putting in a NK But: A. You do realise, I hope, that as I've clarified, my vote manip doesn't work if a player doesn't first vote - hence Rioting. So if Striker isn't being cooperative (he currently has no existing vote), there's nothing I can do about it. B. If Striker is telling the truth about his ability, then I will get redirected to a random Villager. If the Villager did not vote, my Riot doesn't go through. If I get redirected to me, my Riot doesn't go through. Even if the Riot goes through, depending on what Karn and out other vote manips do, it may not be visible. I do think it's worth hitting Striker to try it out - but if you're talking in terms of alignment confirmation, there's a very high chance you won't get it. As far as I can tell, there are - three? Just three voting players right now. Even if Striker actually joins in and votes, it's more likely than not my Riot fails, in which case my vote isn't lost either. Hmm, fair, yeah. Fair, but I take it you then have low credences in a mixed team with one or two conversion slots? (This IMO is what Aman has been theorising.)

>> >> It's fine, clarified it's not the same game and he'd appreciate if I memory-holed it, so I'm standing down and getting a drink. I do Smh smh you told me to get a drink and forget that game existed, I'm obeying your orders, do you want me to get a drink or not??!??!?! They did what He did what What is this disrespect to my Shuffle Squat Bro I cannot even >:( TJ!!!!!!! BRO WHAT

Tbh I didn't ask about weaknesses and it wasn't stated in my GM PM. I've sent a GM PM to TJ about it now, but I was honestly just going to synch it up with my RP and assumed I'd overcome my weakness because it matches part of the arc I had in mind fine. It's the name that's causing me so much grief Gonna be honest, TJ and I talked ages ago about a Reckoners game - and I'm starting to wonder if this is the same game. My memory got jogged by both Karn and trying to ID where TJ and I had talked about weaknesses. But if this is blackout, then I'm questioning the ethics of bringing that up, since that's technically unfair OOG info and also it might not be the same game, and it could be misleading. If this is the same game...ugh. My concern levels are rising quite a bit. @StrikerEZ - Is there anything that suggests you are conversion proof? Edited to add: He told me I don't have a weakness and swore at me so I think he's very done with me now

Tani, Karn. Why would that be the natural train of thought? Why specifically consider the possibility of no Elims at all? Some conversion games begin with one converter - I know you know this as you and Maili played LG51. Do you think there are Elims now? Did this affect your approach to C1, and will this affect your approach to the prospect of a lynch today? Why? And why, instead of role madness? Going to suggest a Soothe instead, because another Rioter requires us to theorise yet another vote manipulator, and more interactions cancelling out, or them also trying to votejack you or me. It's not impossible but dear God would that be one hell of a mess. Fair enough, yeah. The most I can think of are cases where the player got NKed and didn't claim, or didn't say anything, in which case you could maybe get interaction/action/targeting info, if you assume the player is honest but that's not terribly strong either. Ah, my favourite line of reasoning, but I don't disagree

Karn, deciding to prove me wrong Though I had a feeling. Edited to add: @Karnatheon, why'd you slot onto Mat but go for Stick?

Fair, yes, but it was reminding me of the Kholinar dead tweet requirements or Wyrm's Raven role for Sandman, which also had about...I think, 140 characters? as a requirement in terms of how much could be communicated between the Raven and the dead doc. But then, Wyrm created the role in a time where codes were not yet banned. MR4 spanreed PMs had to come through him too. I still feel like it could be useful if you frame your questions wisely, but I'll grant that especially if the GM isn't c/ping, that's going to cause issues. In what sense is that kayana? Gonna say that it's not impossible, yeah: revival/Returning could/would be one reason to sit on alignment flips for a cycle, though feels like saying this publicly risks making a target of Archer. Not wrong about the other possibility even if it does ignite paranoia. I think my current take would be to take the lesson from AG8 again about not subordinating player analysis entirely to role analysis No hard roleclearing especially not in a blackout game! Not the most reassuring rejoinder from me, but E!Kas would basically have to at some point. (Whether he could do so convincingly would be another issue - my view is no, but I can understand if someone else feels the answer to the question with 'yes.') We just came off AG8 where apart from you and Falcon and Heron, I agonised over every single lynch and have historically had high vote volatility. I must have sent Stick, TJ, and Araris at least fifty PMs between them all going to and fro about whether Elan was Evil or I was complicit in condemning an innocent Villager to a ML. We collectively rethought Flamingo and Albatross at least six times between us. In LG79, Archer woke up to a long string of PMs from me questioning if E!Striker was really Evil as he was up for the lynch. In MR53, I spent most of the last cycle I was alive trying to rethink the lynch all over again and hopping between targets at lylo. Realistically, if I just went through a game without any hesitation or the extreme vacillation I'm known for, it should be odd, and I'm aware of that enough to recognise that E!Kas would probably feel pressure to replicate it. Sorry RIP everyone, please blame timezones and the GM's decision

Fair enough, yeah. That's why I have him in my Light Village tier with my strongest Village tier unpopulated - I'm just paranoid enough that I could see this working, especially as a GM who has favoured giving Seeker roles (well, this isn't Seeker but it's an info role) to the Elims in the past. But it's really at the mercy of distro in my view, and possible distros become suddenly a whole lot more - or less - plausible (hi Elan!) when parts of the existing distro come to light. Interested in whether you think that this role in particular might be duplicated, as it seems the sort of thing you might want redundancy for. Does require other Elim roles that imply the existence of Village Epic roles for this to be plausible though, IMO. Otherwise, I think your earlier point seems fair, which is that to claim it immediately is risky without a sense that Village Epics exist, because each successive lynch flipping Regular or some non-Epic role just looks bad. So this depends on Mat's alignment in part (but then Archer voted on Mat, and yeah, bussing exists, but) and what your credences pertaining to extra Knighthawk Scientist or similar roles are. Tentatively inclined to agree the definite article is rather indicative, but would hate for this to be the one time TJ got careless in phrasing. So not all in I suppose, on my part. Guessing you're implying that Elim games are much more stressful, which, yeah, I absolutely agree with, based off traumatic memories of MR9 and LG20 and LG5. So I'm definitely grateful I got to spend Tyrian trying to save Tyrian all over again Besides, I feel like if they hadn't suppressed the Spiked Coinshot distro, you would be having a much more stressful Elim game, thank you Given I joined you in the tunnel and then finally caved at Mat's last post, I'm not really sure I'm one to say anything. I feel like the distance between when you last caught an Elim has more to do with your in-game lifespan and lack of recent play history than anything But I'm all for the Village putting up together and solving things >:) Together we are stronger >:D !!! Won't deny it's a possibility - but then I do expect some of the other non-Epic vote manips to call me out on it since they have vote manip abilities too, as is their sacred duty :eyes: They can't all be Evil, that's way too much firepower for an Elim team without any sign of Smoking or counter-VM at all. Which is probably why you said 0.00000001% case, but hey P.S. I still maintain anyone who wants to complain about me treating the thread like a casual PM place should take it up with TJ for making PMs be default closed

Your TUA credences though Fair enough! Need to hit the fun chill space myself; I think I haven't really broken out of the 'stress/guilt don't let the Village down' mentality from the last couple games just yet, though I admit I was asking less from a 'are you chill with getting NKed early' perspective and more tactical since losing engaged!V!you (given current credences) can be rough, though obviously Village just has to put the work in, as we always must. But absolutely more important to hold on to the chill and fun, don't join Orlok and me in overcommitment jail Party in the dead doc :eyes:

Couple of Shower Thoughts: (Look a guy has got to think about things sometimes when doing the necessities) Low key still tempted to hit Striker with a vote manip since per his claim, it should hit another Villager (well, not helpful to anyone with a low Village credence in me, but good enough for me from my perspective.) If enough people are voting, it might be indicative enough and visible in the result - my expectation is it should change my primary target rather than secondary, and TJ has confirmed this. Might not be singularly useful but might be nice to collect some datapoints and see if it's possible to narrow down a pool/patterns. In connection with the above thought: tempted to keep burning my vote manip each cycle to either hit Striker or to vote manip someone onto the train I'm voting for. (Unless IDK, I feel strongly about someone I guess, in which case I'll pull an Axl and declare it.) This should reduce the impact of my Rioting by turning it into (functionally) a Soothe. But I think it'd be great/helpful due to actions economy (single action slot in normal circumstances) - if I'm doing that, I at least am not NKing I'm totally okay with Elims messing with this by choosing not to put in a NK or trying to counter VM me - if they burn actions trying to mess with me, they aren't killing, which I consider to be an acceptable trade-off. Feel like the fact there has been no roleblock claim thus far makes me lean against that possibility. Feels like a Villager who successfully roleblocked a kill should either be more excited about coming forward with it, or quietly vote to see if they can bait a defense. Not really seeing that pop up, though if the latter scenario, I would guess the main candidate for having been roleblocked would potentially be Araris, since everyone knows he likes to put in the kills when Evil whenever possible. (Assess unlikely as only Experience, Araris, and myself have voted so far, and Experience likely would not have asked about attack-survival scenarios if so.) Aman's comment on a single Corrupted Epic deciding to burn their power rather than putting in the kill makes me wonder, in light of: Just shamelessly cribbing off Aman: Eyeballing this gives me at least two probable other vote manips who weren't me, but not rigorous because shower thoughts and exam time. Supposing I'm ignoring the conversion possibilities - one hypothesis is that the vote manip actions we can see were people who couldn't have put in the kill (but this becomes less flattering in light of the fact no kill happened!) I'm only interested in this possibility in light of what Araris said about the excessive amounts of vote manip flying around. So let me recap: on this scenario, our Elim team panics about the EoC shenanigans and throws a craptonne of vote manip out, potentially foregoing the kill (why?) What would it take for this to be the case? (So I'm not assessing plausibility here - I'm pathwalking first: plausibility comes later.) Well, the votes would have to be pretty coherent in direction, and I feel like it's not extremely clear this is the case, despite what Araris said. We have one vote added to Stick, and four other votes lost. I think TJ did/does imply that Soothing does exist, and probably one of the lost votes in my view should still be chalked down to a Riot. It's true if we factor my Riot in, it does look like a bit of a movement to save Karn, but IDK (feel like it could go either way - Karn voter who Rioted someone from Mat to Stick wouldn't really be saving Karn, Karn is collateral in this view; on the other hand, absolutely possible for Rioter to be on Mat, and then moving a vote from Karn to Stick. Further/worse permutations if we assume Karn self-pres Rioted in the confusion - because if that's the case, here's how it shakes out: Since Rioters cannot Soothe to no-votes, this basically looks like nonsense on stilts because we have 5 lost votes, and only 3 votes added. Karn and myself or myself and another Rioter and Karn cancelling out could make sense, but...again, requires a lot of EoC activity. This is very general too because I don't have the time to sit down and get Tyrian Falls flashbacks by working through potential EA interactions -.- And Awes' comment on learning when to just say there's not enough information to fruitfully work this out comes to mind. On this theory though, the team has a lot of Emotional Allomancy which, yeah, no, that's too kayana. I'm discarding this. You're welcome. A weaker version has maybe two of the vote manips at best being Evil (in which case they didn't expect me and maybe someone else coming on in) - but that's too small to make an Elim team unless we're looking at a slightly smaller team because of conversion possibilities. Yikes. Still weird though. Agree on other possibilities advanced by Karn, e.g. kill was put in on Striker. Unclear which did happen. Have asked as well if lynch precedes kill on OoA (got PAFOed) since it's possible that since E!Mat was likely to be lynched anyway, he put in the kill as a freebie since they weren't going to get anything out of his role action given no dead Epic - but that's weird IMO: Mat does have a history of not checking with the GM first (Gnnorrdingadong) but you'd think basic kill OoA they'd absolutely ask about. (Note that if the kill was put in on Striker, seems to suggest Elim team wasn't on around EoD which is directly contradictory to Karn's proposal Mat put that kill in. Unclear why Elim team would antagonise neutral who did them the courtesy of warning them a kill on him would go badly for them.) @Amanuensis, you not worried about getting NKed given your Regular claim? Still no idea what to make of Mat's role as TJ has clarified the stockpile rule applies to recipients as well, just going to shrug and wait for the flip/someone with more bandwidth. @Tani Why swap from Stick to Karn then based on your reasons for going onto Stick in the first place? Have they shifted?

Fair, yeah. Leaving you guys on this note with a final meme: With all apologies to Axl/Dyring and the M'Hael/Dragonfly I blame TJ for wanting to be fancy~

Why? It's just a theme. Now that Aman mentioned it, the proper name use does make me wonder if Striker has a specific target (especially given we know there are a bunch of vote manip roles out there), but if he does and it's me, I'd be happy to broker a deal in which I die and he works with the Village. Essentially my vote manip abilities are flavoured as inception, or Jedi Mind Trick+ Epic abilities. It's a bit of a reference, is all. Edited to add: Thanks! Not for the conversion warning, but the exam luck

Fair enough; I'm just really Lawful enough to want to do this by the book But also, seeing Ash struggle to try to figure out what my role is despite me throwing Inception memes was kind of funny As is me trying to figure out how the hell I am going to reconcile Mordred's RP with being Cobb >> And Inception memes! Appreciated, and agreed. Have posted my current thoughts and now that I've finished getting my scare, should sign off to go back to prepping for my exam. Will do vote analysis when have bandwidth, but may not be able to get to it until after the exam, which is C3. Edited to add: I like Tenet a lot, but the philosopher in me loves Inception more and I think it holds up really well a decade later. Given TJ is as much of a Nolan fan as I am, I'm not actually sure he didn't make the reference on purpose

Thank you, Mr GM sir. What are normal circumstances, and what are abnormal circumstances? >>

Come on, I just threw the film at you Are you demanding specificity, Mr Ash?

He says this after scaring me out of ten years of life >:( Yeah, I know, just gotta take it one cycle at a time anyway. But the main issue I'm having with conversion of any sort is that this is already limited information (well, that and probably the fact I deeply desire there to be no conversion ) given the delayed lynch flip. It's not unworkable, IMO, but it certainly seems - tricky to juggle for Village because limiting/slowing lynch info on top of conversion usually needs more info roles to balance it. Either mechanic separately in a game would need balance. Two of those together? Damn.

How many action slots are there in total. Still side-eying you Mr GM sir >>