Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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He got that C1, didn't he? Edited to add: Gotta give Illwei that one (1) cycle too.
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Posting so Very New Player (Do Not Kill N2 or Shrek D3 Please!) Illwei can post thoughts without doubleposting <3 Edited to add: Damnit bro xD
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Yeah, I'm basically reading this as a difference of approach at this point and firmly telling the shuffle squat urges to go away, it's too early in the cycle for shuffle squats. I don't wanna ML you bro
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First Araris, then you. Get your own gig, smh >>
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Screw it, you're V, I'm not going to shuffle squat again D1, I can save the paranoia for D6 or something if we get there =.= This is not my problem anyway why am I trying to figure you out :|
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Six. It's not meaningless if you are committed to the view that Elims aren't on side-trains, though, because if you are, then to be consistent, you have to either take that as clearing Bip from your PoE, or reject the view that Elims aren't on side-trains. Okay, fair enough, I can see that. Why isn't voting on a side train alone staying under the radar though? I mean, even if you want to broadly bring in other games - Heron/Sart didn't draw a lot of attention for being the king of side-trains. Side-train voting in a Turn with multiple side-trains doesn't tend to draw that much scrutiny, especially D1 where vote diversity and reluctance to commit on thin evidence is especially unremarkable. Fair - I should be more careful with my choice of words. What I'm trying to get at is that you're basically defending Archer on the basis of that activity profile not being problematic, which is just weird to me and I'm trying to see where you're coming from, because if you take it to not be clearing (and presumably have Archer in null) but also aren't willing to see him dead, that's a bit odd. Is it uniquely bad for Archer? IMO no - there are three in that group, all of whom could be side-eyed for the same. But I don't see why belonging to that activity profile itself can't be grounds for suspicion this early on. I think there's some slippage in your use of NAI here because if NAI just means 'conceivably, a Villager could do this,' then a lot of things are NAI because Villagers do odd things like forget they were targeted by a security officer, or misread their role PM. Villagers also sometimes do do things like vote on a Villager instead of an Elim. If not, then what do you mean by NAI? Presumably something stronger, right? Like "this is not an evidential basis for alignment." Something about the way you're defending Archer here is setting off negative gut for me, and I'm trying to work out what/why, and whether it's "I don't agree with Mat's reasoning" or "there's something wrong here."
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See, this is the line that sticks out to me. Surely you have to agree it's unlikely they all stacked up on TUA/Stick, due to no investment in TUA versus Stick. So if it's unlikely they all stacked up, do you think Szeth is Evil? Or Stick? Or Fifth? Why is it you say this and of all the people you could have started a train for, you chose to start one on Bip, when you yourself claim that you believe it's more likely the Elims are on TUA/Stick than the two side trains? (Bip created a Tani sidetrain, recall.) You expressed suspicions of TJ but didn't exert pressure either. That's odd. Honestly, I find this framing weird. I feel that an Elim would want to appear engaged in the voting, but not get further tied down in the TUA/Stick trains - on the working assumption V/V for the moment - because they know the main trains are going to flip bad, so stacking more onto the train late into the cycle draws attention, and just looks hella bad - look at the side-eyes Fifth got for the last minute switch! So in general, in terms of general activity profile, I'm very confused about your thought process here. Would E!Archer do this? This is where [Edited to add: I am actually less certain, as I think E!Archer tends to be more aggressive/assertive.] Sure, I'm happy to take your question seriously. Let's look at the trains because I do believe there's at least one Elim in each pile: side-trains, non-voters, and TUA/Stick. I think that's a reasonable belief as I don't see a reason for them to clump and activity generally looks good. My point is that you can't dismiss the side-train reasoning by saying they're more likely to be on TUA/Stick - they can't all stack there, and those weren't voluminous trains. Are you seriously committed to them being all non-voters or on TUA/Stick then? Don't your Bip suspicions implicitly commit you to the logic some of them [=at least one] are on side-trains? Non-voter pile: <Ash, you, Aman, JNV, Orlok, Danex, Hael, Sequence, Bort, STINK, Tani, Kas> Of this group, I feel good about Ash for helping to strategise and point out the issues with steel hoarding, good about Hael because E!Hael should not be this disengaged in a game of this complexity and for pointing out Red Wedding lethality, Orlok and Aman on the basis of interactions, STINK because of player behaviour. I'm obviously a non-starter in my own eyes. This leaves me with a pool of: <JNV, Tani, Bort, Sequence> - Sequence claimed to be very lost, which could be a lurker strat, or might not be. Akan datang. Of this group, I'm squinting most at JNV - JNV is a new player, so reluctance to vote should not be unusual, but JNV's thought processes do not reflect those of an entirely new player; that and JNV's response to your first vote set off some mild alarms for me. Bort should be looked at too, on the basis of the RB claim. No real view on Tani. TUA/Stick voter pile: <TJ, Fifth, Thaid, Stick, Szeth, TUA> Thaid and TUA flipped V so they're non-starters. I think E!Fifth has no reason to make the votes he did - in a V!Stick/V!TUA world, E!Fifth is indifferent and the last minute vote switch just draws unnecessary suspicion. In an E!Stick/V!TUA world, this likely suggests E!Bip but it's still odd to make a last minute naked swap like that - Fifth is gambity enough to be down for a 50% chance at losing E!Stick rather than damning both of them, in my view. TJ is reading Village to me in our interactions. So I'm looking largely at <Stick, Szeth.> No real strong view about either of them, but I think the Elim team's choices would be odd with E!Stick. So probably just Szeth here for me. Of all the side-train voters, we have: <Karn, Drake, Bip, Archer, Araris, Steel.> You're right that raw side-train voting alone isn't Evil. But avoiding a known bad train is. Temporally, this means we need to look at the <Archer, Bip, Steel> set, because these all materialised late in the cycle when the trains had come there. Given train volatility (Fifth -> JNV + Bort -> Stick / TUA), I think it's further reasonable to say that there's reason to stay off the main trains and go side-train if they want to appear contributory. I think it's reasonable to say: "Hey, this profile fits the profile of where an Evil voter would go to," and vote or at least pressure Archer for it D2. Araris's reasoning also applies, in my book. I'm not sure why you insist it has to be NAI because that seems overhasty as a way of clearing. We clearly know that it has to be Evil for at least one player, if there's at least one Evil player on a side-train. Edited to add 2: And to be clear, of the side-train voters, I'm currently side-eying Steel again, so that's fun.
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If you're from the future, sir, could I inspect your belongings? I'm searching for contraband. I've heard someone has an illegal painrial stashed somewhere. Just proper precautions, you understand. The entire ship is in a state of heightened security with the recent saboteur activity.
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Look. Old habits die hard. I kind of just wanted to do it for propriety's sake. And I didn't hate hate it it was a soft nope so I guess I broke my rules a bit. And then the post editor ate it all up and now I hate myself for not c/ping first to save it and I'm done :| Soft nope has become a hard nope which means no vote analysis forthcoming, thank you, please try again later >:(
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Bro, you found Archer suspicious - and cited your agreement with Araris that Elims like to hide on trains. D1 Archer: voted on Bip, naked solo vote. D2 Archer: Quick Mat sheep, went off onto Thaid as first voter. Again, not hiding on a train because he started it. I'm not sure where your train hiding reasoning comes from, because you claimed to have come to this conclusion after re-reading - and what should have jumped out at you after re-reading was that he's more or less been solo voting. I certainly saw it. And TJ voted on him for it, and Mat expressed suspicions of TJ for it. I can get disliking the Thaid vote, but in that case, I'm interested in your conclusions on the rest of the Thaid train as I am not necessarily convinced it's a pure Village train. ...Even excluding the obvious.
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Threadbro why
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Did the complete D1 - D2 vote analysis, lost it, have lost the will to live and carry on. Steel's reasoning for Archer vote doesn't check out, beyond that I genuinely dgaf @ me after 24 hours maybe and I'll try again >:(
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Don't really feel like doing this but it's a soft no, not a hard no, so here we go. D1: This can't be as painful as AG8 or MR56, right? Mat opens the voting by going on Fifth. Nothing more to say here. I know some people got Village energy off it, he at least gets participation points from me, and the discussion on coordination is good. Araris puts a stab vote on JNV next. Approve of the no-kill policy on returnees. First interesting vote to me is Stick, who stacks onto the Fifth train. It's not by any means high-octane interesting, but it does put Fifth in the lead (however temporarily, this early on in D1.) Tani self-votes. No further comment. The Fifth vote is really short-lived and at Araris's prompting and reminder that returnees are off-limits D1, Stick swaps to Szeth as a naked poke vote. Two minutes later, Mat decides to add pressure to JNV, while Karn poke votes Danex. And Tani and Thaid both go onto Bort, because of course they think it's funny =) So nothing much, just our resident chaotics doing themselves for lulz. JNV is tied with Bort now. Agreed with Mat on a NAI read for that move, and also strong annoyance with both of them, for which I might be tempted to secure the Thaid train out of sheer policy. Thaid then swaps from Bort to Mat for...no apparent reason, other than a desire to relive MR56 D1, and retracts again saying it was a joke. This vote is so short-lived I'm not even going to bother to capture it, but the sudden retraction does make me wonder if he got yelled at for it by doc mates, given it was a six minute gap and nothing else happened in between. Szeth shows up to revenge-vote Stick and says nothing else. This will be the foundation of one of the major D1 trains, so it's worth highlighting this point. Bort, meanwhile, revenge poke-votes Tani. Thaid slots onto Stick - in terms of timing, this effectively ties JNV off with Stick. No idea if that's what's going down there, though. Fifth then apparently revenge-votes Stick, which...ok bro you do you I guess. Drake goes onto Steel. Not really sure why, note to self to ask, but looks like a stab. Stick pulls off Szeth, after claiming she voted Fifth to provoke Araris. Some people like to live dangerously I guess. Interesting vote on Tani from TJ, with a two-vote Tani train. In E!Stick world, this looks potentially like splinter train tactics - it's not exactly crunch-time yet. TJ cites Tani voting Bort and clarifying Elim joke, which...eh. Unsure if due dilligence or easy target. But feels like E!TJ could easily find someone else so IDK. Bort and Tani apologise and make up with a beardnut. I wipe the tears from my eyes. Stick inaugurates TUA train for being defensive, which is critical because TUA later takes off. Sometime after, Mat goes onto TUA. Unclear why he picks TUA - @Matrim's Dice? And TJ goes onto TUA to consolidate. @|TJ| Did you V read Stick at this point? Why not secure Stick train against votejacking? Thaid goes from Stick to TUA, for...no apparent reason. Again. Guys, I know it's D1 but y'all don't gotta be like that. Mat gets cold feet and swaps off TUA - Elim TMI on a bad train? Steel chooses Mat over TUA, citing Mat as the most recent offender for capitalisation of a!steel. Want to note that this could be Elim TMI if Steel is consciously avoiding the bad TUA train. Bah, whatever, it's three minutes to rollover, I'll just c/p this and carry on later. Serves me right for switching on Village Kas mode so late. Thaid Bort.
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Bro. If it's V/V, Elims have no investment in who dies. Do you seriously think they were all inactive/non-voters? If V/V, where else to look for at least one or two Elims D1??? They're not going to stack up on TUA or V!Stick and I'm seriously confused that this isn't occurring to you.
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As far as I can see, there are several ways to read the RB claim: A. The Elims did indeed embark on a Mass Extinction/Red Wedding strategy - the RB on Bort was essentially incidental and did nothing. B. The Elims did in fact put in a kill - Bort performed it as one of the team least likely to draw attention, and was RBed. C. The player was lying about RBing Bort. I think C is the most unlikely option - it's too early in the game for this sort of play from an Elim perspective, and I don't really see why a Villager wouldn't just directly make the lie themselves if they were trying some sort of play. The real difficulty is that it's very hard to assess the respective likelihoods of A or B on one cycle's worth of information, both pertaining to Bort as well as what strategy the Elim team is embarking on. The knowledge of at least one RB that went off should in some way weaken Mass Extinction/Red Wedding credences as it brings to life the possibility that a kill was in fact RBed. I'm honestly not sure which way the evaluation should go. I'm leaning against Mass Extinction because of the thread control sacrifice, but one could make the same point with Red Wedding, so A can't be ruled out. I'm also generally feeling a reluctance to LAFO Bort on D2 when he hasn't played for quite a while. Probably just going to leave my vote for the moment and come back in the morning.
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Pretty sure Striker or Experience can arrange that if you ask them nicely
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E/E means that two players are Evil together. V/V means that they are Village together. By extension, E/V means one of them is Evil and one Village.
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Kavar had never been very good at leaving well enough alone. Sometimes, he thought that was why Mira had left, why Ailys had left before her. Maybe part of it was posting after posting, tour after tour. Sometimes no matter what you thought you had between you, time and distance was what killed it. Maybe part of it was that he'd never really known how to leave well enough alone. Maybe Mira'd just needed the space from her old man, to become who she thought she was going to be. He folded up the worn photograph again. Printed out at a crappy station terminal on the Ascendant a couple years ago and he was sure it was out of date. Maybe Mira'd cut her hair. Maybe she'd gained some scars. Couldn't tell. Maybe he was holding on to something he couldn't even remember too well, for all he'd been away half the time and each time he came back, Mira'd become someone he didn't know how to talk to and couldn't recognise. How long before memory fell out of synch with reality? He grimly checked the night's gleanings. Sergeant Vahn had been right. Trouble there. Maybe they weren't saboteurs, but people were stockpiling contraband and while Kavar knew that people sometimes just went for what was shiny, he had a job. He always saw that through. Maybe part of the problem was that he didn't know how to be anyone else. Anything else. He'd been used to being the solid pillar of the squad. Maybe he wasn't the best operative out there, or the sharpest, or the keenest shooter, but he did his job and he kept the squad together and he'd always been the one you looked to when things were disintegrating and someone had to hold them, had to keep everything running, and he didn't know how to be anything else, this was his life, and this was what he'd known, and maybe that was why Ailys had walked out of his life, after all. He focused on the job instead. Search for the saboteur caches, Vahn had said. Kavar had uncovered some things at the very least, though the question was how it all fit together. And some of the others talked. Was another Mistborn - not from Pyrehawk, from another squad, who'd claimed casually to have been a trained Hazekiller who'd shut Bort down the previous night. Bort. Kavar knew him, regarded him with some respect. The question was, had Bort been a saboteur stopped by the Hazekiller? Or were the saboteurs stockpiling and waiting for the opportune moment to strike? They needed more information. That was really the problem, either way you sliced it. He grunted. This was the worst, as far as Kavar was concerned. Haatyc or'arue jate'shya ori'sol aru'ike nuhaatyc, as they used to say on the Ascendant, and the idea there was many small ones that Kavar knew nothing about felt worrisome. But this was part of life: you adapted, and you got used to the unknown unknowns, to taking the full measure of your ignorance and making the best decisions you could anyway. And then you had to live with yourself, after that, even if things went to osik.
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In an E!Stick world, Tani was proposed as a last minute CW. Not impossible for Villagers to CFD onto an Elim last minute (hi Aman ) but I thought it was worth checking, and wanted to push Tani to take the temperature of reactions and to see if Tani votes were motivated by the Stick/TUA tie or whether there's something more consistent driving them. There's no appetite for voting Tani, minimally, which is consistent with C1. I'm not sold on E!Stick world, but I'm still paranoid as all hell. Currently, while I think there's some reason to go onto Steel, I'm not really going to do so for several reasons. The one that is most compelling to me is emotional, which is non-ideal in a game where we are attempting to seek truth, or to discover Elims, but it is what it is. I don't want to go into it in detail, but I will note that Steel playing in this game involves some circumstances which don't usually obtain, and while I am usually the resident Village guy who has never found a sword he won't throw himself on, I would be hella mad if Wyrm returned and signed up for a game together and I got D2ed. This is just me, but it's a powerful personal line I can't bring myself to cross at the moment. I've also played E!Steel enough - not often, but still - and have usually IDed him early on. It's possible Steel could simply have changed his approach this game, but it's throwing me off because it's very different. Part of me still wants to check the CW just in case, which means it's side-eying Stick. I want to relook at the D1 votes, focusing on those two trains. I'm tired at the moment and my rule of playing this game is that I don't do anything I don't currently feel like doing, so there will be no vote analysis for now. But I stand by my impression of the EoC as fairly low temperature, with Stick only being endangered by a last minute (if predictable) self-pres from TUA. In retrospect, maybe I'm too hasty to consider D1 V/V, as if TUA's self-pres was predictable, salvation could arise from E!Stick from two sources: A. E!Fifth pulling off (if V!Fifth, this would be unexpected), or B. A team with a moderate risk appetite in an EoD with low volatility feeling fine with a 0.5 coinflip and hoping no Villager spawned with vote manip. (We've seen this a few times.) Commit to revisit when I'm less tired I suppose. I'm fine with the pressure on Archer as it is. Here's a third option: Bort. (Sorry bro.) I understand why steel hoarding/mass extinction event strategies are very popular on the mind right now - especially given the events of recent games. I've been discussing this further with Araris, Archer, and Drake, and here's a bit of an analysis from us: A. Mass Extinction Event: On this doctrine, the Elims stockpile steel (potentially duralumin and nicrosil) until they can hit us all at once with a critical mass of kills, causing a mass extinction event and a high body count. The point of this doctrine is to deny us information, and presumably only one kill can be leeched off by a chromium strike. This is harder to anticipate and to deal with. This also prevents Elims from being scanned as having carried out the kill. Assessment: This strategic doctrine has several trade-offs/weaknesses: first, information denial is imperfect. We have discussed lynches in this game, and we have flips from those lynches. This means information denial only denies us the info from night kills. Moreover, doing so yields thread control to the Village, by keeping alive analytical players who generate plenty of discussion - this could come back to bite the Elims hard if the Village's analytical firepower is able to cooperate and solve together. It also prevents the Elims from proactively eliminating threats to them - such as V!Seekers. (My view is always that we can't assume Seekers exist, much less are V, but from the Elim team's perspective, they absolutely have to assume there's a V!Seeker out there gearing to be a major pain in the shebs.) One final point I'm checking in with @StrikerEZ / @Experience on and would appreciate clarification - the way the Hazekiller role is phrased seems to suggest all metal actions are blocked by a Hazekiller, which would be a critical way of shutting down this strategy. If I am correct, then that is another major hole. B. Standard NK: On this doctrine, the Elims make NKs like in a standard SE games. They may make threat kills or control kills, or they may try to go after low info kills. This allows them to prioritise and eliminate threats to the team that can't be MLed. Assessment: This strategic doctrine is more or less the default setting in SE. The downsides: first, kills do radiate information, and the Village can work based off information from them. Kills can be scanned by target and metal action scanners, and can be redirected, or roleblocked. Doing so could mess with the Elims and could also be informative for the Village. C. Red Wedding: This splits the difference between A and B, where the Elims stockpile enough steel to burn for emergencies (e.g. protected V!Seekers or trusts) but also retain enough actively used steel to take out threats. Assessment: Nothing much to say that isn't covered in A and B - this is based off how much they swing towards A or B while trying to balance, really. tldr; I think we may have been overhasty overanchoring on recent events when deciding that the Elim team had gone for Option A. It is true that Ash and Drake for instance think that Option A is clearly superior; I had thought so too, but on further discussion, I think it's just about associated trade-offs and the Elim team's temperament, so I'm more with Araris and Archer here. I do think a discussed lynch is important no matter which world we're in - it just becomes extra-critical if we're in A-world. But recall that the Village leaped immediately to the conclusion that the lack of a kill meant steel hoarding, which was undoubtedly helped by the fact that there were no roleblock claims and overanchoring and the thread discussion had considered a mass extinction event strategy D1. Someone claimed to me to have roleblocked Bort N1. There are some questions I'm asking them. But this is an avenue I'd like to explore as well.
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TJ's post: 1. Whether Stick/TUO V/E or Stick/TUO V/V, we should look at side-trains. 2. Three side-trains developed: pushed by Steel, Archer, Biplet. 3. Lower credence on E!Bip (presumably relative to the three candidates in his pool), and Steel already has plenty of votes on him, so developing pressure on Archer instead.
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1. It's one of several reasons I agree that pressure should be developed on Steel. There's other reasons, but where possible, I'd prefer the player who first brought it up to advance it as they deserve credit for their own observations. 2. I don't think 'teammate' is something that falls naturally out of a Village state of mind either, or at least, I'd want to know why Steel is thinking from an E!Steel perspective there because I don't see what could have prompted the adoption of that perspective. 3. I think the minimal commitment is to pressure, because look at the context of the exchange: Steel is responding to Mat when he says that he'd vote on anyone doing the capitalisation deal, teammate or not. The other candidate at this point is TUA, who flipped Village. And that's just a very odd exchange if - as I do - you have any amount of V!Mat credence at this juncture.
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You know who you are and I'm sorry :/ Wincon makes us do terrible, monstrous things to others :'( ..........I don't know how I'm going to cope when my V/Non-Evil streak breaks and I actually have to send in a kill :|
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You claiming to have burned gold? Because if you did, you should know who targeted you.
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I feel like this assumes they stacked up on items they really wanted in order to increase their odds of getting the items they wanted, since it's RNGed among the pool of players that made the grab, but I'm not sure how that works out. Suppose there's just one Thief. (There's actually slight reason to think there's more than one Thief but I don't really want to freak y'all out right now so let's bracket that.) Gives us a player pool of 23, out of which we postulate 4-5 Elims (assume this is where your mention of base 25% Elim rate comes in.) Elims have two strategies, which are non-mutually exclusive, and which they can commit to to varying extents: A. Stack up on an item to increase their chances of getting it - in a crude example, if all five go for pewter, and three Villagers do, then overall, it's more likely for an Elim to get pewter. B. Separate to get different items by deconflicting - this could result in more items overall (and for 3-4 Elims to have successfully grabbed items, they must have not gone on the same item) but reduces the chances of success. A and B therefore slightly conflict. There's actually a third escape hatch, i,e, C: they stack up on an item with multiple instances, in which case it can be simultaneously true that they increase their chances, and also more Elims get items. But in a C-world, this brings us back to: Our only overlap. We may not be in a C-world. But is this the logic behind your vote? Because I'm not really following how you're modelling Elim D1 item strategy right now.
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Counterpoint would be that a stacked E train catching on would be very sus and extremely risky so the point would be to try to attract V buy-in - proposing a Tani train in an E!Stick scenario would basically be implying E!Stick, E!Fifth, and E!Bip but would almost certainly require checking your alignment first as it's the lynchpin of this possible world. Do I have particularly high credences in V/E D1? Actually, no. But as Araris has pointed out before in AG8, it's not good to rule this entirely out of hand due to recent trends in Elim nonreactivity D1. Edited to add: Are you assuming this because they are better able to coordinate grabs than Villagers are?
