Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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Apologies for the doublepost but wanted to make things clear: I'm committed to fighting this out with the Village. As I see it, when I made the commitment, I made the commitment, and it would be dishonourable to go back into quiet neutrality just because this is easier for my wincon. I also think this could be rightfully regarded as a betrayal and I don't do betrayals when alignment doesn't force me to. (RIP Jain ) I've stated several times I wanted to play the straightforward, upfront neutral for this game. I wanted to at least show SE there is a possibility space for neutrals who don't want to play the 'manipulate both factions' game to exist. This is especially important in light of some talk Maili and I had about attitudes towards neutrals these days. Lying and manipulation isn't my thing, and I'm not going to sit back or turn on the Village now. If we go down, we go down together. I won't cry if I somehow end up winning with the Elims because I didn't die (I already have finished my item side-quest), but I am going to play the last few Turns out as though I were Village. I have communicated both my position to the Elims as well as the understanding that if they kill me, I understand. It's not fair to them to expect neutral immunity when I'm not playing like a neutral. As I see it, our situation doesn't change substantially - if they feel confident enough to out themselves to hammer, then they've created targets. And we all know what to do with targets Requesting Villagers to PM me to deconflict actions where possible. I'm not ruling out the possibility of a fourth Elim prowler who didn't hammer among us, but we have certain actions being taken tonight that can cause difficulties if we are too gung ho. I'm not intending to mayor, but I will make tactical suggestions if you are going to cause difficulties with existing orders. It's important our orders affect the right people tonight. Requesting all Villagers go for one of: <chromium, electrum, cadmium.> I've already ensured that we have a decent distribution of Villagers going for these items but the Elims will be trying to fight us for this, but there's more of us (for now.) I expect anywhere between three to four kills tonight but we have to plan and play as though this is winnable. So it is imperative we all get one of these metals as these are the meta [Edited to add: metals that can block or deflect the edge of a Elim hammer tomorrow.] Requesting the Metallurgist (you know who you are) who claimed to me do a Stockpile restock. We need items if we are going to swing things, presuming the plays tonight go in our favour, and we survive the Day. I'd rather have them than not, so please put in a pull order. I've PMed you as well. @Tani @DrakeMarshall @|TJ| @Sequence @xinoehp512 @Sart @Walin @STINK This Night will make or break us, guys. Let's make them bleed
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Signing up as Brightlord Keredin, a hotshot small-time duelist. He doesn't actually have a secret because he's openly gay, and Adolin is hot, and he loves how Adolin handles his...sword. Definitely no secrets, none at all. What you see is what you get Will probably not be playing as actively/aggressively because I have learned I don't have the stamina for QFs and am tired, and two games back-to-back have threatened to end me. Edited to add: Yep, just signed up as a gay blade, what's wrong with that Fair warning I might flirt lightly with fellow dude players so here's your incentive to go female character for this game
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Player hasn't gotten back to me yet. I've PMed them about it. Wow, a lad goes for a meeting and comes back and everything is so different Check your PM, bro.
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Bip, with light protest. Karn.
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1. If Archer started with the Hrovell D1, Archer was already setting himself up for a potential fall eventually. I note that he walked his lone vote back N1, suggesting it was a 'toneread.' 2. The D1 vote doesn't matter. Elim teams have voted on their own teammates before for low-risk votes. Does Archer's vote hit the threshhold for this? Absolutely. There were two competing trains at that time - Stick and TUA. His vote on Bip never took off and she was not in substantial danger. 3. What do you define as pressure? Archer did not vote Bip for D2. All we see is that Archer tried a half-hearted ISO of her on N2. Why do I call it half-hearted? Because he asked her questions and suggested his vote might return to her D3, without calling for action against her or pushing. This did not actually happen until both Bort and Archer came under pressure, with players indicating they were more interested in taking down Archer than Bort. [Edited to add: His immediate targets were Stick and Drake; in fact, he explicitly marked Bip out as a lean Village read. Is this pressure?] This, we know, was when Archer was already set to take down Mat with him, due to actions economy, OoA, item transfer rules, and the likelihood JNV did not come to Elim notice until D3. If you are committed to E!Araris, then you are committed to the notion that by the time Archer voted on Bip, he already knew that the Bort train was going to take off. I don't see how you can pretend that's a serious countertrain then. I don't consider half-hearted ISO pressure because it's easy to feign suspicions of players; it's harder to actually back them up with substantive voting behaviour. All of this to say: 1. Agree with Karn suspicion, and fair point about the wife detail. I may be convinced to swap to Karn. 2. If Araris flips E, obviously looks better on Sart; if Araris flips V, then Sart and Bip should immediately stand out as suspicious.
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@Sart @Illwei @STINK @Karnatheon @Biplet @Orlok Tsubodai @Sequence @Walin Reminder this is not a parliamentary election, it's okay to vote wrong even if I'd really rather prefer we voted right If we have low vote participation, we go into D6 with the exact same problem again, which is another low info cycle, and another shot in the dark hoping that we will miraculously hit a Elim when people aren't discussing, voicing suspicions, or voting. I get that not everyone has the time or mood or inclination for analysis. But at least, please, if you are a Villager, help the Village read you. At least drop a vote. It doesn't have to be the most well-reasoned thing, just please vote. Thank you.
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While I'd like to keep the pressure on Sart, it's obvious this is not going to be tenable in the current situation. I do still want to know how Sart made that inference, as it feels a bit TMI to me just off D1 voting patterns. I also dislike the position of Szeth's D1 vote as I feel that it seems very unlikely to me that the D1 train was entirely Village, and Fifth's D1 vote seems a bit more high risk for an Elim, with his D2 vote looking weirder. Of the surviving players, Sart and Walin, as I have stated, are non-starters for me. Again - for there to be the number of kills we saw N3, I think we are committed to at least one if not two active Elims. (Recall that Mat RBed Archer N3, so we know that Archer categorically did not send in the kill.) While it's not impossible that Szeth or Fifth sent in orders but did not post, I do consider it unlikely that E!Fifth or E!Szeth would send in orders but fail to post 'proof of life' to the thread, knowing there was a chance that no pinch-hitter could be found at all. To emphasise, this is not a clear on Sart or Walin. I am of the position that one of Sart and Walin could very well be Evil (lower probability to both in terms of team numbers but not impossible); I am just not sold on going on them today as I figure that there must be a catchable teammate behind N3. In no particular order within tiers: Moderate Village: Light Village: Null+: Null: Null-: I guess while I say Sart and Walin are non-starters, I could be persuaded to go onto Walin. I'd like to hear more from Sart, too. But functionally for me, I'm willing to be talked onto anyone in my Null and Null- categories and will currently put a vote down on Bip.
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Killing the active players certainly seems to have that effect. Hangman? Edited to add: @StrikerEZ don't worry, your thread is safe from me Need sleep.
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Presume you have low E controls nicrosil/duralumin credences?
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Here:
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For no particular reason, I have decided I am going for Tin. I don't really feel like going for steel as I have been informed that another player intends to go for it, and I have decent credences they are Village. I also think that since all Day claims are publicly announced, if said player does in fact make a very suspect kill, and I and everyone still alive will side-eye them tomorrow. So that's fine
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It could very well be the tipping point for me given my PoE. But currently putting some pressure on Sart @Sart- if you've been skimming and looking at raw votes, then I'm curious as to how you lean Village on Bip for D1 when her voting patterns were no better or worse than those of the other five side-train voters, one of whom was Archer and thus Evil. Eyeballing this, I think the only way this makes sense is someone retrieved Copper last Night. Leaning a bit Elim on this in light of Bort and Archer's potential drops. I'm a bit more reluctant to litigate on the Hazekiller issue - our current set of living players seems to provide very little hiding ground for two more Metallurgists, let alone a Hazekiller. Pinch-hitters are a bit unfortunate in this regard since I'd almost rather just get the flip rather than deal with inactivity being replaced by borderline inactivity and the question is whether we commit to killing them or not, which costs us both in tempo and information. By this point, I think I'm factoring out Sart and Walin as final vote candidates, even though they're both technically in my PoE. Mat RBed Archer N3, so someone who was not Archer put in the kill(s). If you think it was not Archer who obtained and used the duralumin/nicrosil, then we're likely committed to at least one more active teammate [Edited to add: Other than the killer.] I don't rule out that Fifth or Szeth were lurking, but I feel that if you are active enough to put in a kill or a boost, you are active enough to put a 'proof of life' post in the thread. The problem is that this line of reasoning commits me to an all-Village train on the top two candidates, which means I really do have to look elsewhere for Elims. @Araris Valerian, why do you believe a kill attempt on Drake softclears him? I admit I don't like the feel of Araris's claim and I'm half-tempted to vote him for that alone. Edited to add: At this point, I'm just going to say that if you are the Hazekiller who RBed Araris, please claim it or drop me a PM if you feel uncomfortable outing yourself to the thread. I think we have to get some clarity on this.
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>:(
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You realise Hael and I co-GMed that, right? You had to hit both of us at once...
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You can use or run someone else's ruleset, though if they're still around, I'd imagine it's the polite thing to drop them a message one way or another, just to let them know. QF29 was a Joe game - Lopen ran it. There have also been reruns of rulesets other GMs ran.
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Oh, that bow >> The one that gunned down the Ghostbloods because Burnt used Wilson as her spotter and Wilson thought it was a good idea (admittedly usually good Evil doctrine) to distance from us >> That one. You might mean MR7 as well. I think they put in a request for that to happen in my game as well so I Made It Happen, which is why Wilson returned in QF40 for revenge
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You can sign up for a slot without one, if you have too many slots, you'll be asked if you have a concrete ruleset/game idea in mind. Otherwise, it is technically true that you must have a ruleset before you can run a game, since players need to know what is going on, and the ruleset must be cleared by the committee. Improv GM could be too spicy for everyone
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Question is, would he? Or would he drop the items to confuse us? Because I could see him deciding that there are too many vials such that the Elim team has a decent chance of recovery. It's not clear to me Bort burned everything. He may very well have dropped a vial. The fact that Archer claimed AFs D1 and D2 from the Stockpile and claimed to have used them N1, N2 pretty much puts a pin in this. He also actively claimed a delta for both Nights (so the D2 delta and D3 deltas respectively) - it's possible he could be lying but from the numbers, but given there was an actual delta, and Aman died with no inventory, it'd pretty much have to be another AF teammate or a Metallurgist teammate. To be clear: Let's look at the situation again. Hrovells are Night only. In addition, players have a limit of one non-vial item action per Turn. Two deaths also means two Hrovells. This means Archer needed to burn two Night actions. We have in theory one Night on which Archer clearly used the Hrovell (N3), but we also have two Nights which Archer claimed with prima facie credibility to have used the AF and the Stockpile was clearly restocked. If anyone got an AF off the Archer lynch, they should claim it. It's very important in figuring out what happened here. The obvious inference from the two Hrovell deaths is that Archer did not actually restock the Stockpile on at least one Night. The implication is that he should have dropped at least one AF. But that's not what we see - we see a +9 delta indicating that Archer did in fact drop a vial, but no AF. So what gives? I do think that the D3 pull was due to Archer - Archer burning the AF in the Day to free up the Night action for the Hrovell, should he get it. (I think this weakly indicates he actually isn't teamed with the/a Metallurgist - taking the AF and then getting the Metallurgist to pull to hide the AF could have caused more confusion. But I'm not terribly sold on this point.) If Archer had used the N2 painrial, then Archer should have dropped two AFs, unless we think he burned one D3. There's no other point (apart from the D1 pull but that categorically cannot be Archer) at which he could have burned it during the Day. This is why it's important to know if an AF dropped but I actually don't place high credence on this possibility. The fact that Archer confidently told us the N2 delta/items added indicates to me some likelihood an Elim started with an AF or is a Metallurgist. I no longer think there is much of an incentive for Archer to lie because we wouldn't know Ash's inventory size or Aman's inventory size anyway, and neither would the Elims. How many Stockpile pulls do we have in total? <D1, N1, N2, D3, N3, D4> Of these pulls, I think N3 is clearly down to Tani (there are exotic possibilities, but let's leave them aside first.) Let's look at the pulls after ruling out those Archer could categorically not have done: <N1, N2, D3, N3> - I think it's clear he explicitly wanted to be freed up N3 to burn Bort's Hrovell, therefore <N1, N2> is the window we're looking at. Let's just stipulate for the moment that Archer was responsible for the <N2, D3> pulls. (A bit odd for the Metallurgist to do back to back pulls but not impossible. D1 pull could be someone with a starter item wanting to burn it ASAP. Nothing much hinges on the N1 pull postulation instead of N2.) What is the result? <D1, N1, N2, D3, N3, D4> Three unexplained pulls - we can credit it either to an Elim who began with an AF and a V!Metallurgist, or, IMO, an E!Metallurgist. It's clear we have too many pulls to postulate convenient starter AFs for.
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FYI if there's no pinch-hitter, Fifth dies tonight, so maybe hold back on that until we know for sure.
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Delta immediately looks to me like our rogue Metallurgist did a pull yet again. It's interesting and I'd argue that our rogue Metallurgist is almost certainly Evil, contra Drake, because it feels like the timing of their last two pulls has been to obscure Elim drops - Bort and now Archer. Mat and JNV both had empty inventories, so that doesn't matter. Main question is what Archer had on him. D4: N4: Delta: That's a delta of +9, so I think it's clear something (at least one thing) dropped from Archer and it has to be a vial. Off the top of my head, unclear which candidates are possible. Have to go back and look. Seems to me that since Archer had to send in the Hrovell order at the same time as the kills were sent in, this was a decapitation strike - everyone who died last Night had pushed Archer and would have been soft-cleared by his flip. Mat was consensus Village and JNV would have looked pretty good after Bort as well, which means that the set of people meant to die were all light to strong V <Steel (early Archer push on D2), Stick, Drake, Mat, JNV> and more active than the alternatives. Someone started with a Hrovell, that's the only explanation, as we saw one Hrovell drop, unless a Hrovell cycle corresponded with a pull, so it hid the delta from us. I did a quick check and that is impossible by OoA so someone did indeed start with a Hrovell. Wondering if there's a slightly smaller Elim team because letting them start with a Hrovell is otherwise an interesting GMing decision (see: LG12 E!Pirate.) It's interesting that TJ wasn't considered a candidate since TJ went for Archer over Bort. My current Village reads set include <Drake, Bip>, tentative on TJ but still yes, everything else needs rethinking for when I have the time.
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Those are roleless. Guessing he started with a Hrovell then. Edited to add: Current thoughts - Gold scan? Or potentially if they worked out Mat was Hal, then I'd assume that Mat refusing to countenance JNV was sus might have done it. Edited to add 2: Here are Mat's actions - RBed Bort N1, RBed Fifth D2, RBed Karn N2 and Tin scanned Araris N2 (Araris did not use a metal), RBed Fifth D3, and RBed Araris [Edited to add 3: This should read Archer] N3. He's also - AFAIK - set to RB Bip D4. V!Invest scanned Mat N1, Bort N2, and Stick N3. Was set to scan Araris until the last minute but TBF, that would not have ended well.
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Signing up, probably switching on kel mode because I don't expect to get much done in an hour. Preference for the Sunday slot, but I can survive Saturday as well, so am good with either. Edited to add: Tagging @Elbereth in case because editing in this change - signing up as a possible world iteration of Khas. Let's go back to the beginning Item thoughts: Random assortment MR7 - the knife which killed an Emperor (Story: Kas was being a troll and killed the NPC Emperor C2) MR7 - the halberd Discord, used by the Discovery Faction member Hael (Story: They all wanted awesome powers...) QF6 - a cryptologist's codes/notes (Story: Kas was the cryptologist, linked up with Joe and luckat to murder the hell out of the Nightmare Aspects by using Tineye messages to break down the game's communication gaps.) QF20 - An extensive collection of shoes (Story: Hael put in inventories in QF20 just so Burnt could steal everyone's shoes.) LG79 - a voidspren gem (Story: xino made himself a voidspren gem intending to convert to the Elim team. It Did Not Work As Planned because Ambiguous Order Was Ambiguous.) LG82 - the Lord Ruler's Mark (idk ask @Matrim's Dice what it is exactly - Story: Mat put in an item that allowed players to win at the end as long as they held it and survived. After a long chain of murders, it was passed from Mage to Kas which is the story of how Kas ended up winning as a Villager with an Elim team.)
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Everyone in my current PoE is "I don't have a reason to Village read you/I don't think my reason to Village read you is particularly strong so I think I am going to revise it." Plus, I do agree with Axl about a default attitude of suspicion - if I don't have a reason to Village read you, then all else being equal, I'm not opposed to pushing you for a grinch. I do have degrees even within that pool, but by and large, I'm not fully convinced my pool is correct but at this point, I feel we just need an Archer flip to confirm/deny things and then can proceed from there. Speaking of which, as I probably will be too busy to get back on substantively: Karn, Archer.
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If you did, wouldn't you claim it? It's almost as decisive as a roleblock. But then, this requires Drake or Stick or Steel to be an inuitive N2 hit. Would you agree with that?
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Alright, so going to drawn a line under how much I can get done as I'm on duty today. The main points of trying to work out what can be worked out: There are two main possibilities that explain the kill numbers and item delta we see: these largely involve either Nicrosil or Bendalloy. Since these were used to increase the number of kills, we can be fairly certain that they were in hostile hands. Publicly, the players known to have Nicrosil were: <Mat, ??? (N1 retriever.)> This ignores possibilities such as that two players claimed Nicrosil N1. At this point, Mat is I think a decent Village read and has been targeted twice for his Nicrosil. So if there is anyone of interest, it is the N1 retriever(s). The problem with trying to ID the N1 retriever(s) is that no one has claimed Nicrosil (duh), and I've managed to trade my actions for those of a decent chunk of the playerbase. My current working hypothesis is that Ash may have been our N1 retriever, or an Elim who just claimed a failed action (easiest I suppose.) That closes down helpful/practicable inquiry for the moment. In the case of Bendalloy, we are looking at <Araris, Steel.> This ignores possibilities such as that one player claimed Bendalloy N1, and then the AF pull covered it by adding another Bendalloy to the Stockpile. We face similar problems with trying to ID the N1 retriever, but there is also a chance that Elims may similarly have obtained Bendalloy via the Ash NK. Trying to work out the delta today might be helpful in figuring out who the kill hit. If we can rule out a Bendalloy possibility, or conclusively rule it in, that's useful in terms of determining which suspect pool to look at. I don't think a 'rolelynch' is helpful here, but I do think it's something to consider when evaluating Araris.
