Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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Can confirm some of them have yelled at me when I tried to enforce the old rules But it's generally a 'depends on GM' deal these days.
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I know Illwei's a new player but just to point out - these days, GMs just accept the latest red vote. I green out of habit anyway but AFAIK @StrikerEZ isn't really picky about this. This is a very lax generation, I know @Bort @Araris Valerian @Haelbarde Time was, we had to go back to every post and green out all previous votes! Edited to add: It is indeed interesting to see the likes of Archer put up a reads list, and then successfully suggest that the Bort train is Elims pushing a mislynch when one of his lean V reads is on it, refuse to self-pres on Bort, another lean V read, and try to rummage about for a CW on Biplet....another lean V read! All this while ignoring <Araris, Fifth, Stick, Tani.> You have to wonder if 'lean V' at this point means 'everything including the kitchen sink' - much less you [Edited to add 2: when, not you] you have a shortlist that excludes your one Evil read. It's a very interesting phenomenon that makes me wonder if the meds I'm on are making me trippy. But I don't feel good. In fact, I feel positively Evil vibes
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He pointed out that Elims in fact have to work harder to come by their conclusions honestly - they are well aware that this scan is false, but are also aware they can't reveal that it's false too quickly.. They have to show their working, and are wary of a trap. Conversely, Village responses would be pretty apparent both by immediacy (Illwei; no conferring with any apparent doc), lack of TMI and purity (confusion and acceptance, Sequence), or they have to show their working - it's apparent when a Villager derives the conclusion it's a false scan through careful effort and collection of evidence/consultation as compared to when TMI is present. For instance, Drake noted you inferred very quickly - relative to the others - that this was a widespread fake scan. This should be suspicious, especially compared to the raw, baseline responses, and the fact of the matter is that - just as Meerkat worked out in AG8 - due to Villagers being in the majority, their responses can be taken to be baseline. The alternative is to simply do what I did, which is a raw MO plot of the reactions and to look for outliers. Ultimately though, your argument is saying that a Villager scan is less valuable, and I honestly call osik on this, because Elims are being fed information they know to be false, which means they are looking out for what the catch is and are trying to act like any Villager would. The presence of TMI is the difference-maker here, not the scam type. I'd further argue that it's precisely because Village Meerkat and Village Illwei used Evil scans in previous games that swapping things around shakes things up - it makes things less predictable and reverses the meta to try to break Elim complacency or the idea they can bury this. As Drake has said, he's willing to explain his thoughts in PMs, due to the limitations of his meme style, so why aren't you interested in actively asking him about them? The timing, execution, and conclusions are suspicious? How so? For reasons you can't even state? All this while while you keep on fishing for a train? If you want to do a comparison to your behaviour in MR56, I'll gladly give you one. You declared an Evil scan on Thaid with no set-up whatsoever. Immediately - within ten minutes of your post suggesting no real read on Thaid. If that wasn't a screaming red flag, you must have expected half of MR56 to be colourblind! You claim this in a game with no sign of items whatsoever apart from one-shots created by a specific player, who was lynched on D1. You expect there to be reactions and claimed to be okay with one reaction. And what did it do? What results did you get? You kind of just shrugged and gave us barely there reads on Aman and waffled on Stick. Drake has produced an entire reads list, has claimed Investigator in a game where the role is known to exist, has actually committed to doing the set-up properly and has been willing to discuss and defend his conclusions with the various people who PMed him. I should know - I'm one of them. Minimally, he was way more thorough than MR56 Archer was. Maximally, he's being more upfront - within discursive limits - than MR56 Archer was. The timing was suspicious? On D3, and revealed before the halfway mark of the cycle? Was there discussion that was being derailed? Sorry, because I'm not seeing it. What was there to be derailed when Drake initiated this play at the beginning of the cycle? Even if there was derailment (where? I challenge you to show me it!) - derailment is not the responsibility of one player - I said this as Meerkat and will say it again. It is the responsibility of every Villager who needs to get out in the thread and actually discuss all the things. The conclusions are suspicious? Why so? If you disagree with his reads, why so? And if not, if you - as indicated - haven't even bothered to talk to Drake before calling them suspicious or seeing his working, then I am absolutely not surprised at all that you think he's suspicious. Not wanting to actually make sense of how people come to their conclusions has a way of doing that. I'm sorry, but if you want red flags, MR56 Archer and now Archer has it, and I sincerely hope you're trying TWTBAW because I'm getting a lot of bad vibes off you. Man, I was really going to sit back and say nothing for this cycle and let Village Village and let me do me but I legit cannot even with this sort of trainwreck. Cannot. Even. So here's my question. If you're so sure that Bort is Village, to the point you're defending him to the hilt, if Bort flips Elim, will you accept us lynching you with zero resistance whatsoever? You've claimed adamantly that the arguments against Bort hold no water - despite JNV's being about as reasonable as your thoughts on Thaid despite attempts to gaslight them out of existence. In your eyes, there is no case against Bort at all, so you shouldn't object to being lynched next if Bort at any point flips Evil. And I for one am happy to go through with it, given how closely you've tied yourself to Bort.
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This was done in LG3. When SE was still young and naive, and when Beetle was still a possible gambit, when only two games later, the Village would go on to ML every single Tineye under the assumption one of them had to be Evil. When Joe was the last Elim standing in a game where Gamma had effectively shut down every single Elim kill with an unprecedented Lurching streak protecting himself and the Village Seeker. A lot of plays in early SE that happened would not be workable eight years from now [Edited to add: Meant 'eight years later'], I can tell you this. Either you don't understand the game landscape you're talking about, yet you still want to draw on it to defend your read of Drake, or you're deliberately trying to misrepresent the state of affairs in order to cast suspicion on Drake. Which is it?
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I have been informed that Bort is my son from LG12 and I should probably not vote to damn my son because the Greek furies get mad when that happens. In light of that new piece of information, I'm going to go on Archer instead.
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Just told me it was someone else and I wasn't to ask who Smh Drake did you even put in effort for mine Am I worth that much to you
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I'm so proud of you, Throw-Yourself-Irrationally-On-Pyre Bro! *wipes tear from eye*
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Too lazy to redo the Experience is Village meme but agreed.
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Drake is nothing if not thorough, I'll give him that. He said he'd gotten a couple of reads off it, and is preparing to bring it to the thread tomorrow as he'd burned six hours on a project and was short on time. I'm happy to hear him out before casting judgement on the success/failure of his project. Am sharing Stick's read of Illwei for her response to the troll, FWIW. Same case as AG8 Karn - immediacy is a good look for Illwei.
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I mean, I wanted it to be real Drake, you broke my heart You said you scanned me as a Villager...........
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I apologise for doing this, bro, as I enjoyed reconnecting and playing with you: Bort.
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Brought it up on D2 when trying to work out why there was no N1 kill. I'm distinguishing it from a Mass Extinction scenario because Ash had brought up D1 the possibility of steel hoarding for a mass extinction event - in other words, all the withheld kills happen at once and we get surprised/taken aback by it. [Edited to add: And it's probably endgame for us in that scenario.] Red Wedding is more like mass slaughter/kill waves: so yes, you're not wrong, but it won't be mass extinction, just multiple deaths at once (kill waves), troughs between waves of low kill activity, with them probably reserving one or two steel vials for tactical sniping where necessary, e.g. if a Village Seeker (on the assumption there is one and that they're Village which is an assumption I never grant since Burnt the Kandra in LG15b) does something damnfool ridiculous like ignoring opsec and emerging from cover. Do they have to be from different players? Say I have two nicrosil vials. Can I choose to use both in the same Turn to boost Wyrm - and can Wyrm, next Turn, use both boosts on tin, for instance? Does this further stack if Wyrm burns duralumin at the same time as I burn nicrosil and target him? What happens if I target a player with nicrosil and they use the nicrosil to boost their duralumin and then duralumin boost tin the next Turn? What's the final result?
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On my read of the situation, DeTess and Len in QF30 (thanks to Drake for getting me to read this game - I regret not signing up for it as it looks fun and I liked playing with Monmet, Drought, and Devo in QF29 - it featured an Elim team that consciously withheld the kill to try to win via pacifism) noted it was common in the meta at that time for Elims to withhold a N1 kill in order to force Village roleblockers to out themselves and to force an ML. I think it'd be weird for an Elim to try framing Bort this early, so my read of the situation is the RB claim is genuine. What's harder to work out in the context of this game with zero penalties apart from tempo in withholding the kill is whether this is or is not lynch-worthy. As I said D2, I minimally think it's worthy of pressure. And I'd rather not the info die with me or the Hazekiller in question. Here are the posts in question: DeTess here says: And Len here: Especially amusing as Bort played in this game, Orlok specced it, and Drake GMed it. I'm not aware of the popularity of withholding the kill as a strategy and haven't played in any game where this was done as a conscious choice. Given that there is no cost to withholding the kill in this game (unlike in QF30) except for tempo, I feel the probability of such a play does in fact increase somewhat. I'd note that the corollary is that Red Wedding does require thread control, though less than I'd anticipated - the pacifist Elim team in QF30 won quite handily despite having Joe and Drought as primary thread control players: Joe wasn't especially dominant in thread control IMO, and Drought was primarily reactive; Ecth was a prowler, and Devo was being Devo and scary as all hell but not playing thread control either. This influences my thoughts about just how much thread control a Red Wedding team really requires (much less than I anticipated) so I'll probably have to redo my Elim team profile at some point when I'm not suffering the aftereffects of the migraine. If Bort and the HK are both Village - and I currently lean towards at least Village HK for reasons already mentioned - this is something I'd expect Elims to not want to get closely involved in, so I'd be excluding Archer for aggressively pursuing this. This does put me in an awkward situation though as I agree with Stick's thoughts about the Thaid train not being pure Village - I just think it's more likely than not raw opportunism if at all because it's a classic D1/D2 train. The wonderful thing about not being a Villager is for once, I don't have to force myself to soldier on through painkillers to try to do analysis Perhaps this should be the case whether or not I'm a Villager, but unfortunately, it hasn't worked out that way in the past. Edited to add: FYI that my current order is in on the Shade Gun, under the assumption Village would prefer to play with an anti-investiture knife. Please let me know if you'd prefer me to go for the other one instead.
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Me when they kill my ThreadPMBro Especially when he was in my stronger Village read tier Might as well say this, since he's dead now. Aman started with a Nicrosil vial and used it to boost someone's Bronze scan D1. The player then did a Bronze scan N1 (I know who they are, I'm not outing them.) Aman went for the Hrovell N1 but didn't succeed. N2 logs show no successful D2 item grabs, and stockpile orders are last on OoA so by default, he wouldn't have been able to make a successful grab N2. Elims got nothing off him. I would like to grab one of the Shade Gun/Anti-Investiture Knife, and would request that the Village don't fight me on this. I understand Illegal Painrial #2 was used last night to seize the Hrovell from an innocent citizen, and it sure wasn't me as I already confiscated from Orlok during D2. I am happy to deconflict item grabs if there is a preference here. Personally tempted to go for the Shade Gun.
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My turn to be hit with migraine suffering. Not replying PMs until better or am put out of my misery. Afk.
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He's currently probably a null+ for me, pending revision. The main issue I had was just that he first said Thaid had enough votes on him, and that you were equal to Thaid in his eyes, and then went Thaid. If he figured Thaid had enough votes on him, why switch? Items might be a possible motivation, yeah. Says the guy who shamelessly stacked on at the very end in futile hopes of Illegal Painrial #2.
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More or less: "Dead with or without my vote, but maybe he has Illegal Painrial #2 so let's throw a vote on and see if RNGesus smiles on me." Edited to add: FYI, AG2. They curbstomped a Village team of myself, Wyrm, Wilson, Orlok, Aman, Maili, El, Ren, Hael. [Edited to add 2: Hreo, Araris, Alv. Seonid - the list goes on.] I never want to hear anyone talk down on a team of new players because they can shred you when you least expect it.
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I'm not sure which way I lean right now - but I feel like the three-way shade gun mindmeld is striking because I agree it's not the strongest reason and I'm wondering if it resonated or if there's some coordination-based reason for this.
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k
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>Doesn't kill N1 >MLs D2 >Logic checks out
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I am indeed your security officer. Do you, by any chance, have any idea of where an illegal painrial or Hrovell may have ended up?
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Can't deny we are very kayana yes I can indeed confirm I am not a Villager You got me good there!
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In all fairness, I have to step in here to point out that Drake is doing this because he lost a bet to me in the AG and the requirement was that he has to post nothing but memes in the next game he plays in (PMs are fair game.) If I'd lost the bet, that'd be me instead. Here is the reference to the bet, made publicly. I love that you've got the guy with the temporally longest Village streak (...un-Evil streak?) and the guy who beat Alv's Evil streak in the same sentence
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Yes, he changed his name. Interested in why you don't V read Mat, btw. Think a number of players V read Mat D1 and PMed me about it.
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Tbh given Thaid's propensity to not send in actions and general tendency towards team-detrimental chaos, I'm not actually sure they invested this much in trying to get Thaid killed. If they wanted to get rid of a Hazekiller, the fastest solution is a single steel shot in the night. But then again, this is definitely not a pure Village train and by pure process of elimination, Archer is maybe the only one on the train I'm :| about so I don't actually know. Probably need to revise on the rest again. Edited to add: @Araris Valerian, was gonna ask you this but might've lost it when D1-D2 megapost went down - you mentioned being indifferent to Stick and Thaid, and that Thaid had enough votes on him, but then also voted Thaid regardless. What's up with that? AFAIK Archer sticks out as being the only guy who thought Thaid's retraction on his role was a slip - Drake, Biplet, and Stick as far as I can recall all cited thoughts about Thaid forgetting he had his shade gun confiscated being odd. No idea about Araris. Kas's vote was unfortunately made with zero Village intent whatsoever and the futile hope Thaid had a painrial :|
