Kasimir

@|TJ| What happens if the elected Amrylin Seat goes inactive in the middle of deposition?

But not Mark?

Edited to add 2: I'll point out and this interfaces with @Terrisman's concern - BridgeBoi is not getting Stilled today regardless because Storm voted for him last Night, meaning that we never even had a case where the Stilling hit BridgeBoi. Currently, any attempt to Still BridgeBoi bounces off him and hits the next least voted Sitter. If Sart et al use the Green Ajah ability, we get two Stillings instead which ngl I'm not thrilled about because I don't want us to rush into the Amrylin Seat election. (Sorry Jo, since you're the one who wants it, but I'm not feeling it.) Edited to add 3: Whoops. Sorry for double post, thought this would merge. Back to work for real.

I'll lock in for actual game stuff later. Have to rush two things today. Am considering revealing my Ajah as it impacts some of my reads, most notably to do with my Sitter. Anyway. @Ashbringer + Sitter, LMK in doc or not. Don't have time to say this in two places at once. Canonically this is already pretty problematic because saidin and saidar don't gel. An Aes Sedai cannot see an Asha'man channel (without that late book discovered weave anyway), while women can detect each other embracing saidar so the fact that no one can ever detect John channelling is a major question mark But you know, I'm just running with it because it's pretty damn hilarious, I'm just pointing out that if we cared about canon from the start, the fact he's using saidin is already the problem. Edited to add: Which is why I mentioned NKA the way Ash does it and the way I picked up from him aims to identify the specific player who put in the kill and doesn't rule out other players who may very well be teammates Which Ash also confirmed. It doesn't identify the team, it identifies the specific hitman. Which is why I say this here as well: I also dropped TUF for a bit because I don't like walking into a cycle with one player already gonna die, it just screws with anything the Village can get done that cycle - for all Illwei said TUF was a foregone conclusion, I think the trains were pretty stagnant on TOW and Storm for a bit, indicating there was quite a real possibility TUF wouldn't die until I decided that no, I'd parked on Mark for long enough and he wasn't coming back and that vote wasn't provoking any response from potential teammates that I could tell. I have major concerns about Steel making this push, similar to Aet backing it yesterday, and that's because I struggle to see a world where TOW wasn't the CW to TUF, and it kind of beggars belief a little (though possible) that Village would be allowed to call the shots on all the trains. I'll re-read TOW later and I really need to get back to work now. For the moment: Jo but I am probably going to switch later into the Night. I don't have time and am just going to work with N1 Kas's beliefs for now. I'm curious why you're so confident on this given Terris of all the Sitters would gain from bussing their team and getting elected as a Black Ajah Amrylin. I don't super lean towards that world right now, but I would think that possibility would at least give you pause before being confident about Terris.

@Aeternum - What's your view of the likelihood Brown Ajah is just Black Ajah in a trenchcoat? Instinct here is I dislike the Hopper push and feel it was a defensive train to TUF. Need to reread cycle to firm up my views. My Ash read has been based on our Ajah doc where he seems to have genuine flashes of PTA which is more V!Ash consistent. Slightly feel Aet was discouraging TUF votes last cycle and would relook Aet. Both in terms of casting shade on TUF sus and then pushing in Storm/Hopper while paying lip service to TUF sus. Will have more thoughts later. Just a couple of busy days keeping me from fully locking in. Edited to add: Prior to my TUF move and Wiz switching, we're two votes on TUF with three vote Hopper and Storm votes in the lead. Ngl this feels easily close to classic Village misplay territory—I haven't super agreed on Storm and I've slightly felt it's a classic case of new player-itis + LHF so to have these two be main trains overtaking TUF feels agenda-driven and I'm thus unsure I can agree with Aet's read of the vote dynamics here. Ash going onto TUF doesn't super faze me because we talked about our views on the trains in the doc and I expressed my dislike of what felt like a stagnant Hopper train pointing to Elim complacency.

Ngl I'm looking both at the slow tempo of this cycle and the complete dissipation of TUF pressure and am not really liking how it's turning out. Ah, soddit. TUF. Jebiga then. My vote has sat on Mark for a while. Its efficacy can be seen. I'm gonna just make the switch and call it a night.

I mean, unless we think it's a 3BA Ajah, @TwinStorm and @The Unknown Flame can probably keep each other honest in terms of spelling out what exactly went down in Brown Ajah. I'm fine with the pressure on Mark as it stands, but not so happy with how TUF has essentially disappeared from contention and am considering if I should switch back since I'm sure as hell not catching rollover by now.

"I'm trying to help them" "Anyway die"

What's your take on TUF right now?

I mean, I guess it could be indicative there's something wrong with the current trains, which would be Hopper in the lead. But I don't really feel like voting Aet despite also not liking Aet's D1 votes. Oh, yeah and I just got N0ed in another game, which is fair, but the GM's disappointed because I was a neutral matchmaker and was planning to claim D1 by announcing I was working on my new podcast called the Botchelor in which I ship people in bad/crack pairings and they should subscribe (DM me) for the worst love advice ever

Kinda chill, kinda tired, tuning in to some wrasslin content because my cousin is a troll and TJ and I apparently followed the same stuff as kids. Mostly trying to clean my brain out after a rough day at work. Probably should get back into game brain but thread is slow rn and I feel like I'm not being productive at this point.

Welcome to the Shard! Will keep an eye out for your thoughts on WaT as I've been hardbouncing off the book repeatedly and can probably relate.

Coates's edit is really good yeah. Isn't it though? I seem to find it on Spotify, just that you have to look under Oliver Coates since he did the orchestral mix for this. Use formal logic even, what could go wrong #nooneask2015Kasthis @|TJ| bhai, how're you feeling Oh, alright, how're you coping with the pressure STINK

Edited to add: Tbh, I'm kind of willing to see it your way because new player Elims are the ones I tend to get wrong the most. I can't deny Storm has that vote and just from the perspective of pure vote analysis, yeaahhhh (though tbf I guess the other issue is - do we expect more Elims on my D1 train than just Polly?) You and Illwei agreeing gives me more pause in terms of whether I'm just running into a TBTBAW on stilts all over again. And for context RE: my views on <Gaea/Jo>, <Mark> and <Sart> - my most recent shifts are just vote-based, i.e. I acknowledge it doesn't engage with the posts as much as the votes, but I've tended to go less kayana when guided by votes rather than posts, so I usually err on the side of vote analysis first, and for Sart, it's more based on the fact I'm not comfortable with how much we're vibing in our views of the game, because historically, that hasn't boded well for our being V/V together. I don't feel sure enough of it or I'd probably be a lot more vocal other than going ? at Sart every once in a while so it's odd Sart is framing it as not being sure about what to do with this hostility because if I wanted him dead, everyone in here would know about it! I still feel it is...possible for Brown Ajah to be three Elim, but not really? Like at most I'd expect one more Elim in <Storm, TUF>. I agree if TJ did a pure rand it is possible, but...that's probably a little whack in terms of balance because Village is guaranteed a lot of pure Ajahs? @BridgeBoi - Storm mentioned a lot about knowing you and being able to read you. Any reason why you seem to be less clear about him?

Rather, V!Sart and V!Kas are perpendicular to each other in terms of views about the gamestate. When we agree too much about the game, it's normally V!Kas/E!Sart. So yeah this has confused me quite a bit. Not sure why Sart finds this weird because it's not remotely new. (I used to have a worse way of phrasing this read, but you can find it across multiple games and it's been right in most recent games that wasn't TJ's Infernal Affairs QF, QF70. That one was just whack. ) Anyway it's a busy af day and I'm headed out again - I'm gonna try to wake up earlier tomorrow morning to review/decide where I want to be. Ok with STINK pressure, ok with Mark pressure, still kind of think TUF's vote deserves sus for saving Polly. Slightly ehhh about the Gaea sus because it does mean Gaea chose to bus Polly during the point where Polly was still saveable, hence @Steeldancer I've been asking repeatedly what the situation in your Ajah was like and if this was advertised. Slightly of the view that there's one Elim in <Gaea, Jo> for the record, which has to do with some weirdness about their posts. Edited to add: We've never had the E!Kas/V!Sart experiment before AFAICR so I don't really know if that same trend would stick or what. Edited to add 2: So my point/reason for interjecting Ash is that it's not really about clashing, it's about our reads of the gamestate.

Yeah sorry, I meant Teldris, was too tired but the vote is logged correctly as being Teldris. Not really super comfortable with Sart atm and feel people are overcrediting him for the Amyrlin suggestion but it's well within Sart's abilities to simply choose to play this as a conventional game - as you all point out, it's not like the Amyrlin is really jacked anyway. Not super challenging everyone, but more needing to log my thoughts on Sart somewhere.

Day One: [RAW] tldr; - If you got pinged, just ctrl+f for your name as I had questions for you while re-reading and redoing the votes - Just off the votes, Wiz, Terris and Gaea look ok here, slight asterisk for Terris because of the issues with Sitter bussing - Steel and Ash look...I'm not as sure given the train volumes, but I do have a light positive read of Ash from our doc. - TUF unfortunately or otherwise makes what looks like a saving vote onto me for Polly. Not very great, broski. - Jo expanding the trains to Drake doesn't look great, unfortunately, as he removes his vote from Polly, which technically saves her. While he later mentions he would vote Polly to save me, he also kind of doesn't do it/gets beaten to it by Steel. -Sart's parking here...it's normal for Sart but I still dislike his vote, and am not really feeling V!Sart on the re-read. -Mark going onto Storm looks like attempted vote dilution. Edited to add: This is about as much effort as I want to put in tonight. I'm going to bed

I'm saying it's too early for me to lock on anyone. I'm voting you because TUF's kill meta is well-known and he's a threat/noise killer: your posts are uncharacteristically restrained, and you feel particularly reserved/careful with your thread posts. This feels like a TUF push that doesn't make sense because Teldris is not a noise or threat kill simpliciter, and I say this despite also thinking TUF sus. Edited to add: Homie, imma need you to also consider a world where TUF is Village. I think he's more likely Evil at the moment, but we also kind of need to do proper dilligence because the most sloppy thing for the Village to do is to go 'yeah Evil' and not consider what we'd say about worlds where the flip is actually V. Edited to add 2: The above edit was meant to be a @Terrisman response. Edited to add 3: I recognise this is the only way tired!Kas brain can word this and my words are not great but generally I've played with V!Wiz being: This energy isn't coming through in Wiz's current posts or pushes from D1 to here, and I am now reconsidering if I've actually overcredited Wiz for underreacting to Polly. The TUF kill meta thing is just so wrong I'm wondering if it's a fabrication and my brain is going back to TWTBAW circles.

Sorry, I was in and out of briefings all day and missed this, but was planning to do it anyway. On the face of it - no because the team is often a composite of profiles, and some of it is down to how those profiles/preferences interact/intersect, e.g. a Drake team could easily make this kill if/since Drake just wasn't around to say no. (I do think it's not in Drake's MO to call for a NK on a new player immediately.) I think this is why when Ash does NKA, Ash looks directly for who would call that killshot rather than who could be on a team with that person, and that's a really important distinction because being excluded from calling that kill doesn't mean you're Village. Something I note that stuck out to me when re-reading N1: In this interaction between Mark and Teldris, they discuss the new player marker on Teldris's profile, and Gaea confirms this means that Teldris joined recently. Which means there's a possibility the Elims didn't see it, but minimally, if someone online after this conversation made the kill, then they'd have to be someone who doesn't care very much about the new player convention. My own foray, despite not being the NKA expert Ash is: <Wiz, Storm, Aet, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Hopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo> I'll remove myself and Drake, as I know both of us have historically cared about the new player taboo when selecting NK targets. <Wiz, Storm, Aet, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Hopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo> I'd remove TUF here. Left to his own devices, TUF makes fairly aggressive NK choices, seeking to remove threats and vocal players. Teldris doesn't really count as one. <Wiz, Storm, Aet, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Hopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo> Remove Ash too. I did a quick scan of his most recent Elim game and yeah he does low info and noise kills but he hasn't gone this particular brand of low info. <Wiz, Storm, Aet, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Hopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo> I'd like to be able to rule out people in <Wiz, Mark, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo> but I basically just think it's been long enough for them (or in Sart's case, he's uh, self-explanatory ) that I don't super feel they can be relied on to uphold the taboo. I think Wiz is aware of it given MR67 but could have just as easily forgotten about Teldris. If I were to slightly mark out those in this set I think might not have made the kill: <Wiz, Storm, Aet, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Hopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo> Steel joins them in that set because in his recent Elim game (QF74), he went pure RNG. You could argue he'd probably override RNG in this case and I think that's semi-reasonable given his QF74 kill choices (Experience, Mark, TJ, and Gaea (who was pressuring him and loud and in control.) So fine. Gaea is italicised for similar reasons - I think it's possible fae could've made such a kill, but it's rough to make the call on a docmate, and Gaea in particular would've been aware that Teldris was new, given the back-and-forth with Mark. Jo can be italicised as well - I think he's old school enough to care about it, but I wouldn't bet the farm on this. Hopper and Storm I italicise because I think it's psychologically unusual for a newer and less experienced player to go for a low info kill of their own choice: it takes a degree of discipline and self-confidence that I think a player has to work up to, rather than immediately have, if that makes any sense. I resist italicising BridgeBoi because I kind of think BridgeBoi might be holding back a little and able to make that kind of kill. On face value, probably not a BB kill either though. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it either. (My farm matters to me!) Full set: <Wiz, Storm, Aet, Ash, Steel, Kas, TUF, Hopper, Drake, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK, Gaea, Jo> Abridged set: <Aet, Mark, BridgeBoi, Terris, Sart, STINK> Not as narrow as I'd like.

@|TJ| - Bhai, incredibly lazy question, but will you be sharing the raw votecounts from N1? Presume you have the ones pre-manip or anything. Edited to add: @Steeldancer - Apologies for second @. Can you walk me through how this post of Teldris's matches up with his attitude towards you within the Ajah doc? Just chasing some theories atm.

@Steeldancer - I'm curious. If there was seemingly a lot of conversation and trust in your Ajah, how did the tiebreaking onto Polly happen? I note that you and Gaea seemed to be at cross-purposes slightly when voting. I am looking at the votes and kill as I have a bit of time tonight but am now considering whether it's worth just voting Drake. Comes down to whether a theory I have about the votes has legs or not.

Oh, okay. Actually that's interesting as a NKA dimension—this means the kill hit White Ajah rather than Green. Might imply infiltrated Green or that the Elims simply don't care very much about Green. Am feeling like it might point to low Elim presence in White though I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Something to consider about the psychology of the kill on top of what @Ashbringer said: theoretically, killing a new player should point away from a regular player here because they understand it's taboo. At the same time, making a low info kill when being down one Elim is actually pretty cold-blooded—it's not the kind of kill a new and inexperienced player makes. I feel you can get a suspect pool from this profile, just don't have the time to do it this instant. I said overcredencing, not overdramatic. That is, you claimed to have a solid V read on Teldrin despite Teldrin saying little in thread. It made me wonder if that came from an Elim who knew Teldrin's alignment and forgot the thread doesn't know crem.

Obligatory thank you but no thanks, turning down the nomination

This is just such a strange response. Why is it mechanical - was Teldris somehow mechcleared? How would Teldris be mechcleared? Moreover, considering how bleargh Raven felt about getting C1ed by you, I'm surprised you can deflect the fact it's a player who got N1ed on his first game and just focus on the idea it's an honour. That's directly against what SE is supposed to stand for. This is also such a weird response. Wiz because it's too early to lock on anyone. TUF is notoriously a threat killer, minus the odd Winzik QF. I don't know he'd go for Teldris of all people. Oh okay. Honestly I think you could've been overridden by a teammate on this. I know you're willing to yield the kill. But I would definitely not say the kill points to you. I kinda think it doesn't. Why does everyone make me want to vote them? I'm curious why you're fairly certain Teldris was Village, given Teldris didn't give anyone much to work off. This just...feels so weird and makes me wonder if that's TMI overcredencing. Worked pretty good in MR67 ngl. Knowing who respects that in general and who doesn't, not based off what they say but their track record with it helped us narrow down to the Elims via NKA. Edited to add: With the way some of you are going on, I'm legit wondering if Teldris posted his GM PM to the thread or something and I missed the drama.

It's a joke vote because the last two times we had someone C1 a new player, i.e. breaking the unwritten rule of SE, it was Sart of all people Both in Araris's RP-only LG and in my QF with the Smoking Gun. ...One day, I'll let Sart live But it won't be today! I'm a little curious STINK would be ok with this tbh. I feel like most vets are aware it's just Not Done to C1 a new player on their very first game. Edited to add: @The Wandering Wizard - See above.