Kasimir

Let me just be clear: "Aman should WGG" Stick?

But why doesn't the teammate override this? Teammate not around as well? We are looking at at least one to two more Elims left. That's the other issue IMO. It's the nerve problem again - does the newer / lower-active player have the nerve for yet another quiet kill?

The fact they weren't near rollover almost makes me think they were confident it would be Nerdy. Which might say something about the votestate at that point. Odds it was an info denial kill? Quick and dirty until later: RAW C1: C2: C3: WITH CREDENCES C1: C2: C3: 1. Cui bono in Gambit World though? 2. The idea the Nerdy and Silver C2 trains are pure seems like 'bridge to sell you' territory. I'm having a hard time IDing Elim dispositions on C3 EoD.

That's basically what I'm wondering. Do we go back to flipping Xino if Nerdy flips E? Is this what they feared: that we wouldn't? Winz!Xino theories? Nvm tired go on I'm gonna see if we can colour in things now. Edited to add: @Haelbarde I am inclined to agree with you that they didn't expect the resulting softclear of the people online at the end.

Yeah, that'd be my agreement. What's interesting is the fact Xino was trending as CW nevertheless: do you flip the CW like this if expecting Nerdy to flip? This almost sort of implies dgaf? Edited to add: Bro. Killed and executed. He soaked both

I'm trying to sleep and I think I overdid it on the caffeine RIP I can't tell you bro. You gotta decide for yourself. It's kind of like what you said on C1: I do agree I could very well be wrong. Nerdy isn't a V read for me so much as a null so I don't really care if he flips. I E!read Xino so I'm voting Xino. I do think there are several reasons to favour Xino over Nerdy, but I also don't feel the case is so watertight that I'd care to campaign aggressively for Xino. I'm fine with either flip, preference for Xino. But realistically, either one is info we need, and choosing between Xino/Nerdy is realistically what we gonna get rn. Edited to add: Right, sorry. I think there's a strong entailment from E!Xino to E!Stick, and a strong entailment from E!Nerdy to V!Stick. V!Nerdy doesn't confirm E!Stick, and V!Xino....running out of time ugh

Sort of where I'm at. I could reintroduce Mat, I guess, but eh... Sleep for real. See y'all on the other side, or not. Hopefully not, kill soaking for the greater good o7

Basically yeah. That and the fact I would really like to have the black holes resolved - either way, it'd shed light on the voting IMO. May not be the most optimal train(s)(?) but they're realistically what we're gonna get at this point in time, just gotta make the best use of it. Edited to add: Fair point, but that's useful because if Nerdy flips E, that more or less clears Stick even more. When life gives you lemons... Edited to add 2: I should note something like that happened in LG82 with Araris but circumstances were quite different. Just felt it had to be said for the insanity of putting your partners in a tie

I think the issue for me is that I find E!Stick an appealing possibility insofar as I'm increasingly dubious both in E!Nerdy and E!Xino worlds that the teams as proposed currently are coherent. Same as the NKA problem. If I look within the <Aman, Mat, Hael, me, Stick> set, with TUN as an outside possibility (TUN still presents some challenges IMO), then Stick is the one I'm more willing to revise on at this juncture. A lot of the work I'm doing is functionally to see if proposing E!Stick makes no sense given what we currently know. I'd say it's at least possible, but the plausibility call is harder to make at this juncture. I do want to comment on one thing though, and that's that I disagree E!Stick would let the Aman lynch go through. She notes that she's win con centric enough to want to save Aman because Village. But doesn't that apply to E!you too, @_Stick_? E!you knows MLing Aman doesn't further your win con, for the very obvious reason that IC!Aman asking to die screws the Village over badly. So E!you would rather ML anyone else who has a remote chance of being IC in comparison. The best scenario for E!you is to get off a ML and a kill on IC. So I don't know why it would be incoherent with not MLing Aman, especially since Aman wasn't suspecting you at that point. Edited to add: Right, sorry forgot to add - this is one reason I'd like to hear from Stick. Basically I want to get a sense of where to feel about the plausibility of this. Edited to add 2: I'm going to take a quick nap, as I have a presentation to give in an hour and a half. Probably won't be back until rollover if not a bit later, so I leave it in everyone else's good hands - don't let me have accidentally MLed Winzik or something >:(

Do you feel that way if another IC dies this cycle? Easier but if we can't hear her out, we also can't stop ourselves from a ML :eyes: I should note that this judgement is based off their current level of engagement. If that changes, then yeah no kidding, I'm cool going elsewhere. EDITED TO ADD: @Amanuensis — Just saw your edit. I will say that I did like it, also in general just trying to decide how I feel about that given Stick started off with an early defence of Nerdy. That being said, she still feels different from in LG91 which is where I wonder how much difference the lack of exams makes.

I'm sort of at the place I think both E!Nerdy and E!Xino need a noisier teammate. I'm not sure if Xino quite cuts it because of the kill issue, but am not sure. It does feel less likely to be Stick in an E!Nerdy world (does E!Stick bus twice?) But IDK - either way it is fairly apparent we are going to get a Nerdy flip today so I guess some of that is potentially just thought but I do think pressuring Stick is a good starting point tomorrow. I just do not functionally feel we are getting enough out of Xino/Nerdy in thread that will better inform us beyond their flips at this juncture. It's a harsh judgement to make, yes, but that's where I'm at.

@Fifth Scholar Because he can't reply Hael: "Why are you changing your votes so many times >>" Kas: "Because he panicked." Fifth: "Because chaos >:D" #IncorrectSEQuotes Edited to add: Gar serim, vod :eyes: Fifth's reply: " >:( " Fifth's reply: "FFS Kas" For legal reasons I am not actually conveying the words of the dead and I am in fact putting words in his mouth knowing he can't correct me in the thread

I don't want to AG2 this, but I would note I do think it is extremely harsh/volatile to do a complete new player team - even Meta hesitated and gave them Lopen. Does change the calculus a bit if E!Xino, but my view right now is that there has to be one other player to give the team a bit of stability and I'd rather look there before <Almond, Insanity> IMO. Other issue is the kill. I sort of feel it's a bit too accurate to not be a snipe. But let's say it's not a snipe. They're comfortable leaving you, me, Mat, Stick, Hael alive. Why? Are we particularly inaccurate? That's one possibility. But that's why IC count was at the back of my head: I don't feel an Elim team of completely low activity profile/quiet players quite has the nerve to sit deep and take their shots IMO. The fact we're getting flips of quieter players either indicates <JNV, Wiz, Devo> were onto something, or they aren't feeling a particular threat from the five of us, or they're happy to keep us alive, i.e. we can be 'managed.' That always implies to me a team with at least one deepwolf. I guess I would say this: if the team was really low activity/quiet/too new, we expect more kills here. Yes, snipe, but the nerve issue and the fact we are not currently being a major threat IMO. Unless there's maybe one to two IC left to pop, I don't see where the confidence comes from. That's the big question to me, yeah. Tbf, Fifth is kind of our (as in collective Village) fault, no? Devo I could see as a silencing kill, yeah, though I do wonder if there was some other sign. I could see that in a pool of Xino voters, Devo being a better shot than me. Am surprised they didn't take a potshot at Hael. Edited to add: Honestly I read it less as defending you and more as keeping her options open - she was listing points for/against Mat and Fifth as well. Edited to add 2: I guess it does mean I feel like I'm working myself back to the view that one of my V!reads is wrong. But at least right now, I still prefer to vote Xino. I just want to know what is going on with our two black holes. Edited to add 3: @Amanuensis - If you're considering an E!Stick world right now: Stick wasn't on at D1 EoD, was on at D2 and D3 EoD, plans to sleep today (good!) It's definitely absurdly late for her but I think part of this is me going: hmm about the reasons for comfort with the votestate. Edited to add 4: Tbh, I sort of feel the chaos did mostly result from the two of you. It's one reason why I V!read Fifth in C3 as well when doing vote analysis - E!Fifth is just different and I couldn't see that vote shifting coming from anyone other than a desperate/chaotic V!Fifth. The cycle was a mess in my head when I came back really late but part of my parking the vote on Nerdy was actually a sheep - I saw your vote, figured you knew what you were doing, and went there while I tried to figure out what was going on with Chaos!Fifth and the swings. Hael's vote was late but stable. Mat swapped but swapped from Nerdy to a side-train. I still feel a large amount of the chaos is basically from Fifth, and then you/Villagers voting around. I don't disagree with the independent sus of Xino (given the number of times I've voted for him now) - just curious why you were committed to E/E/V because I feel like the more usual guess is Elim v. Villager CW. Taking a step back, it feels sort of kayana we're actually postulating that it was Elim v. Elim C2 EoD. I guess partly where my NKA thoughts are leading me to (but that's one reason I want to flip Xino too - Xino/TUN addresses the ? for me and pushes me significantly closer to Bus World if he flips Village, though I do have E!credences there.) Edited to add 5: Ok. Let me try to game this out. Suppose: <Silver, Nerdy, X, X> This team definitely needs at least one regular player. Not speaking of cherry-picking, just whether this would or would not be annulled. Formal set: <Aman, me, Mat, Stick, TUN, Xino, Hael> Exclude: Mat, Stick, TUN, Xino. Suppose: <Silver, Xino, ?, ?> This team needs a player who is more present than Silver/Xino. Formal set: <Aman, me, Mat, Stick, TUN, Nerdy?, Hael, Bookwyrm> Exclude: Aman, me, Nerdy?, Hael. Problem with Bookwyrm is: who is stabilising this team or making the kill decisions? Arguably TUN goes for noisier kills or players who suspect him. I feel like one way or another I'm tugged back to the set I didn't really want to look at :/ And largely Stick v. Hael. It's not impossible Insanity or Almond could be the final ?, and technically same for the final X but that is very rough on them. Edited to add 6: Yeah, that's why I feel I'm either tripping or we're more or less in E!Mat, E!Stick, or E!you world. Or E!me I guess, technically. Even if E!Xino, with E!Bookwyrm a compelling teammate, do they make these kill decisions? I hesitate. Like...what's keeping Xino alive right now? (Rhetorical) You need thread presence. You can't rely on Village indecision.

Double posting unless someone saves me from this which is quite possible: Xino Voters: Side-note: 28 minutes. Fast response to a ping from Stick even if not remotely proactive. THANK YOU AMAN THANK YOU THANK YOU BRO I WAS SO WORRIED THIS WOULD BE A DOUBLEPOST

I would like to apply pressure to Stick, but I also feel that's not a good idea right now. Or at least: I have a weak preference to do it when she's around to defend herself or at least say something, and she's indicated she'd gone off to bed. There's a chance it might lure a teammate out so I'm not against it, but yeah. That's my worry, yeah. That we're slightly looking at this as we would in a normal game where losing an Elim sucks more because outnumber/parity, whereas this is technically untrue in this game. However, on further reflection, I don't think it skews the priorities too much - in a completely low-lying Elim team game, they'd have to know how close they were to wincon to safely do that. Suppose there's 5 IC+Winz (WMG number, not expecting to be accurate.) Refusing to prune Village with your NK is risky too: there's no guarantee you can kill through the final three before you run out of Elims. The odds are vastly different if, say, there were three IC+Winz. As promised: Nerdy Voters: Not related but Wiz said this and died C2, so I'm going to paste it here: Ngl this is a time when I miss using Drake's tallybot (do not have it here) but I feel like it wouldn't be that difficult to modify it to extract all posts in which a player voted on another since you are already counting the instances... Then you can precisify so it can pull out all instances/posts in which someone votes for Nerdy for instance... Actually @Amanuensis Question. What drives your E/E/V view of C2? I think you mentioned it somewhere but I'm currently with more tabs than a guy should reasonably have. I will do the Xino ones in a bit but feel it is better to throw the data to the thread first instead of working on this.

@Szeth_Pancakes Hey, do you still have a betting pool? I'm considering placing a bet on the odds I return to a flash wagon >> (But also brb for real. Will look over everything properly when back.)

Need to check but I'm commuting shortly - if no one has gotten on it by the time I'm back (~2 hours or so), I'll check it. And no, I don't think it is, which is what I was outlining just now: Edited to add: But then why case Silver in the first place... ._.

I do think you're a potential partner for E!Xino. I just also think that I could see Xino with TUN, or Bookwyrm. I'd be more inclined to look there first, but I also think it's better to redo the vote analysis if possible by that juncture - hence my comment that Nerdy and Xino are two black holes we just don't have much about. IMO, what's the answer to "why didn't Xino's partner save him"? (Note that I haven't had the chance to do an in depth of C3 vote shifts as I will be commuting shortly.) One of them is: "Xino's partner is already voting on a CW." The thing that stops me short is Almond and Insanity have very little support in that world, so likely aren't partnered. True, Xino didn't sign on to save himself, but Stick noted he was missing for a big chunk of last cycle as well. My reasons for preferring Xino to Nerdy: -The donut of Evil -NKA -V!Mat read came out of nowhere -Disliking a maxtrain on principle - in a V!Nerdy world, this is another cycle the Elims sit back and laugh because there is no pressure on anyone. That's about it, really. I don't really mind flipping Nerdy because, black hole. And part of me wonders at his insistence of Xino over Aman and disliking the Aman train. Could be honest, could be an Elim wanting to avoid a bad train. I note he's allergic to voting on main / lethal trains.

Quick and dirty until later: RAW C1: This is useful. We now know that the D1 side-trains were very much pure. This means that we expect a high concentration of Elim votes in No Vote, Danex, not so sure about me. C2: I am not sure if I expect the Silver train to be pure, TBH. But I also come back to the fact Silver felt confident enough to sign off without making a single protection vote. Why not? C3: At these numbers, unless Xino and Insanity are our Elims, I feel odds are high we have at least one Elim on Fifth (wow so clever Kas wow ffs) Honestly I look at the raw data and I really don't mind narrowing to a <Xino, Nerdy> flip. They're our black holes. The purity of the end-Aman train makes me wonder. I need to look at the C3 voteshifts but this won't happen until later. WITH CREDENCES C1: My credences commit me to a low Elim investment C1. There's just no reason to care about the trains. Might suggest votes that didn't move, or a concentration in No Vote, not sure. C2: I am honestly suspicious of commitment to a pure Silver train which may indicate there's an error in my thinking. I also dislike the Xino-Bookwyrm pair on Nerdy. C3: My credences do commit me to a more pure train on Xino, less pure on Fifth. Which fits with my V/E thoughts at the moment. Anyway: Xino Y'all are killing Nerdy one way or another with/out my help, I'm cool with that but I also think Xino still looks sus.

FWIW Stick, I'd argue in Bus World that you and Hael rock the best of both worlds, while last minute bussing is a poor strategy for me, but we know I'm biased If we assume there was a bus: you and Hael get V credit if he flips but preserve the chance he doesn't as a tie. If you're risk-friendly, that's not really the worst EoD, especially since people might drive for Silver again. Like your Bookwyrm point in LG91 EoD, where you felt there was no way V!Stick defends Bookwyrm then doesn't vote to defend Bookwyrm EoD, consequences be damned: you did commit to casing Silver so I could see E!you feeling that the fact you are on at EoD requires you to vote Silver but also holding back and trying to refuse it until it's too late. I don't get that risk distribution, unless you argue I waited until it was almost foregone 50/50 then made it confirmed. That being said, I still favour my V!Stick and V!Hael credences, but this crossed my mind and there's no harm in saying it, so I did. Edited to add: I'm not either, it's just that since I can be on nearer to EoD, I want to keep discussion broader. In the world we are drastically wrong about the Elim candidates, narrowing like this helps no one. I think there are decent reasons for at least thinking about TUN at this point and applying pressure. If they evolve into better reasons, I'm happy to turn that into an EoD vote. If not, no. SLEP DAMNIT >>

Because: Either there was a half-bus from Hael (he tied Silver and Nerdy, meaning it wasn't a full bus, and then I widened the gap by going Nerdy RIP), or you committedly bused Silver, or I did, or: If we are running with V!Mat, we just have to postulate the Elims didn't care about the votestate for whatever reason, or had no ability to, and screwed off at EoD. And TUN watched and did nothing. Lmao xD Edited to add: Sorry, rather, you half-bused Silver as well, and I committedly did.

@Ookla the Unknown - Question for you. Would you actually consider LG91 a departure from typical V!TUN? I ask because I'm on N4 and I think you're driving thread more than my mental model has typical you doing. In which case maybe I shouldn't be looking there as I recall you saying you were experimenting that game. Edited to add: Question for you. If C2 EoD is V/E, would you go with E!Mat? If not (EoD, rather than Mat), then for anyone remotely considering C2 EoD aren't we functionally committed to the idea that whether through low thread presence or as a committed strategy, the Elims are simply playing a strategy of indifference?

No kidding... >> Sleep damnit You are correct from what I can see: Mat IDs it and the others follow it. He notices it in her RP:

No. My argument is that we should have seen more positive thread presence and contribution from V!TUN by now, as I recall from QF62 and MR59 - it's what swung me towards thinking E!TUN in LG90. I am trying to get a sense of whether this is a correct line of thought to have by comparing to LG91 as that was V!TUN as well and I don't have a strong memory of anything that happened after I died. I am asking him, since he is here and I can't pursue two lines of inquiry at once, if he remembers who on his team IDed Cinnamon because I'm wondering if it was him or Mat. Edited to add: @_Stick_ IMO V!TUN isn't thread dominant but tends to make valuable observations. Conserves his ammo I guess. Edited to add 2: Cf. I tend to see V!TUN as making these sorts of sparse but helpful interjections. Just found one but I'm continuing to read up to his point of death for reference.

I would be assuming you are looking in the thread for clues, TBH. If we're on this, question for you. I'm looking at your LG91 posts right now: do you recall who in your team unmasked Cinnamon as V!Coinshot?