Kasimir

@Matrim's Dice, @Fifth Scholar, @Amanuensis: I want clarity on where your views of each other currently are. AFAICT, Aman E!reads Mat. Where do you stand on Fifth? Fifth E!reads Aman and V!reads Mat. Mat, what are your reads?

@Haelbarde @_Stick_ ...Do you get the feeling you are just there, watching a three-way Duel of the Fates? Because kinda yes rn :|

Cool, speedread woes I will correct that on re-read. To reiterate though as my edit probably came at the same time as your post: -I think there should be some reason to V!read Nerdy from this - I do think it's at core a good look that Nerdy was the designated CW to Silver. -I am not so sure about Aman - I just find that CW weird and need to re-read (sorry I keep saying this! But y'all get 60% Kas until my report is done) but prima facie, being a secondary CW should also look mildly good.

Edited to add 2: - Ninjaed by Fifth so it goes here 'Cause like, off my raw impressions for my speedread: -Fifth's vote feels almost designed to explode the Silver train, and build on the idea of rapid accretion to feed unease -Mat suggests non-responsiveness as bad so wants votes to go elsewhere -Aman swaps to Nerdy and makes case for All of them look like possible Elim inflection points. I just need more reading to ID which. Doesn't have to be exclusive. Fifth - you can have a vote for now, spread the love since Aman already has one. @Matrim's Dice You asked me last cycle, my response this cycle is that Aman is currently officially on the table for me, pending re-read and deeper analysis. (Which has to wait a bit as I have a mafia report, but I will get onto it in a timely manner.) And FWIW Fifth, while I think you could be trying to explode the Silver vote, I also strangely think that your early pre-Aman hops are a good look. Just need more reading. Edited to add: Needless to say, I think this is potentially a good look for Nerdy as the main CW to Silver. Aman as the secondary CW is more unclear to me due to this being last-minute.

I need to re-read, first and foremost. I could see you and Silver teamed too, I think. Need more thought about the third in that world. I sort of feel my Mat point is still fine, so that's one bit of resistance against E!Mat at the moment, but I just need to re-read and look at the vote movements and what exactly happened since I left the thread and went to sleep + work. Hey hey, you're doing your best with the kayana @_Stick_ Sorry was too stressed last cycle to say this properly but: yes yes, Araris always Evil, clearly :eyes: Edited to add: Tbh I am wondering if Silver was just busy or if the team was trying to metascrew, having seen the unease about Danex EoD. Metascrewing suggests a different profile IMO and more or less implies thread controller Elim trying to swing things late, which makes me squint uneasily within the <Mat, Fifth, Aman> triad. But that we already knew...

Tbh, I am not so sure? The reason I was trying to be circumspect about for Wiz was that Wiz could've been in a doc - I mentioned this in QF63 about his bandwidth, and it being a powerful V!Wiz indicator for me that game. But in this game, doc can mean Village doc, which was what I was alluding to D1. Would not be surprised if that was the shot taken. I guess NKA is all over the place this time because they can choose precision kills (or attempted precision kills) or actually just more standard kill doctrine. My view too. I think my main issue with Silver was just the fact that I didn't have the same read of the thread everyone else did - there was a lot of energy in convincing people Silver didn't care, when what I saw was a lot of people cared about Silver and I wasn't sure they were all Village. That and not liking the Nerdy swing despite participating in it. Fifth...with Fifth the thing I actually distrusted about his swing was: A. raw opportunism, and B. the read of the vote state, which tbf, was rushed since I just came back. I'd normally slightly V read someone - everything else equal - trying to do vote solicitation but the circumstances are odder to me. So sort of that kicked me back to Silver too. Part of my comment was actually a bluff: I wanted to see the reaction of the Aman swing train people in light of my theory about opportunism. K so I actually made that comment when it was 4-4 so I was meaning I'd willingly go for a Silver-Nerdy tie than stay on Nerdy, so RNG wasn't actually flipped....

Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, JNV. Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, Wiz. Frick yeah. Now side-eying the last minute shenanigans, Fifth, Aman, and cool with Stick and Bev'ika.

@_Stick_ YES FFS LEMME C/P

Silver RNgesus help

WIZ WAS EVIL. WITH YOU. C'MON.

Nerdy? I have five minutes to change my mind. What's sticking more is the fact that the ghosting IMO isn't the big indicative sign - there's a lot of resistance right now, and just!returned!Kas is struggling to work out if this is Villagers getting nervy or Elim opportunism. There has to be at least one Elim in here given size and the state of the trains. Don't believe they'd leave it to Village volatility. Edited to add: ffs aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa do i wanna or do i not. aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

I'm looking at the Devo-Fifth accumulation as well. That's a lot of energy. Ultimately Hael's not a swing candidate I'm cool with at this point in time. Fifth wanting a swing onto you is an interesting move as if he doesn't kill me and Aman is V, he's dead the next cycle. I'm not accepting "would E!Fifth do that though", that looks pretty bad to me just in virtue of timing.

I'm just on Fifth's post right now. What's with the sudden Silvereye popularity? Feels like two votes in close succession and now Fifth is organising a swing. That's odd.

Just back from work things. Speedreading.

Light V, hence my italicised no. Not very strong but based on my sense of her Village play v. Elim play. It's just my sense of how freely or how constrained she is in her interactions with/engagement with the thread. In general, I do feel V!Devo just says whatever and sticks in to anything she finds worth saying. She doesn't otherwise. I'd never say no to more data, and she actively tried to hide an Elim tell in MR56, so there's that playstyle fluidity. But I think it's tracked for E!her since MR59 so I'm not insanely confident about this, but willing to roll with it for now. I liked Stick's point that it wasn't distancing, at least, or that E!Devo should've had a better grasp of who was voting on whom, i.e. that Fifth was not in fact pushing or voting on Danex. I do feel that Evil Devo is more careful about her thread engagement, and this just seems to be two points on which Devo was out of it: both in terms of mistaking Stick's count (she tried to correct it as I believe Stick missed Nerdy, and introduced more error), and then just had this, which is a weird construction of thread events as it isn't right at all: @Devotary of Spontaneity - Still curious why you voted Fifth, btw. Last part is a bit confusing to me. Not sure why the options are E/E or V/V for Danex and Fifth. Fifth wasn't trying to vote or push Danex. Stick's point was it's not distancing, which I would agree with, but I also think that's just a very weird way for E!Devo to try to gerrymander a vote on Fifth. I guess the other point is that V!her has been more proactive in her threadroaming in the past, e.g. QF62, but I'm aware she's been through a rough period in terms of Village play lately (cf. LG90, being replaced by Archer as a Village Lurcher) so IDK how strongly to hold that against her. That being said, I felt she was more constructively proactive in my recent MR, e.g.: So IDK. This is why I italicised her - I don't feel a general playstyle feel read is as strong, and there's still a departure from V!her in MR61, which was more obviously V!Devo, so there's room to revise. Some of this comes down I admit to my uncertainty about what to do with the semi-actives: I'm fine with giving newbies a reprieve, but worry if that level of activity is what they're going to stick to, then we risk giving up lynch control prior to when we really end up doing so. I'm not a fan of giving them a free secondary kill. At the same time, activity doesn't necessarily dictate where the Elims are (no drek) so ??? Edited to add: @Amanuensis - Like, it only just crashed down on me how utterly kayana I find that post? Translated: "Fifth and Dannex are V/V or E/E. Fifth maybe wants to kill Danex/save Kas, with four people wanting to do that, they can't all be Evil. Also Danex looks maybe V. So I'll vote Fifth because he's either Evil with Kas or killing V!Danex." Like...sis you just sayd you thought Sannex and Fifth are V/V or E/E? And you immediately pivot to saying it's E!Fifth/E!Kas or potentially E!Fifth trying to kill V!Danex? Like...how does that follow? I know how much Devo thinks through her moves in a doc, and I'd argue she's careful about her votes and thread posts. It's hard for me to see how E!Devo is ok with that kind of post, even trying to gerrymander a vote (as Stick points out, it's not a good distancing vote because it's got bad set-up, so in this world, why does E!Devo vote Fifth anyway?)

VC: Possible for this to be very wrong. It's 6AM and some of my energy is going to a report due later today :| Slightly out of their active hours IMO. Anyone not on my No. Negotiable people, maybe, if there's reason for it I can get on board with. Edit: Literally just got ninjaed. The new actual VC >>

Silver hasn't either. Insanity left a promissary note to come back later, Almond voted for Xino. Worth noting this is Almond's first game, and Insanity's second (like Nerdy.) Wondering if there's a better format to ease them into it, e.g. Stick's asking for one V read one E read.

No. Insanity and Almond just got warned and showed up this cycle.

FWIW Silver is currently reading the thread so it may be possible to get something off Silver. I guess my final pool for today is in <Xino, Silver, TUN, Nerdy> - I am not fully happy with the Almond and Insanity removal (on my part, in that pool) but IDK if I am comfortable going after them today. And Stick, I guess my other thought is this: I feel like the corollary is that regardless of how you expect E!Xino to play this, I am not sure how well this fits into V!Xino parameters, hence my linking that game. I feel like you sort of either have to agree he was so busy this would've happened no matter his alignment, postulate he's Evil, or postulate that he's deliberately acting this way to mask it for future games. I don't feel there's much in between. Fair, yeah. Fifth is more a question mark for me at this juncture, I suppose. Technically: <Not Today>: Insanity, Almond, Fifth <No>: Stick, Mat, Wiz, Bookwyrm, Hael, Devo <Not My Problem>: Aman <Yes>: Xino, Silver, TUN, Nerdy Looks like that should be everyone. Italics I am not fully sure they belong there but am ok with litigating/being convinced otherwise.

In theory yes. There was Mint Heron-gate, though I don't recall if Hael intervened if things got dicey for Rae. This I would agree with. Hael > Devo > Fifth presumably? Eh, I was curious. I see the problem: based off the state of your credences, you're more or less committed to a pure Danex train, E!Silver, or a mistake in the <Hael, me, Bookwyrm> vicinity. Ngl I'll be more active when I'm not dying over my report so I feel you >>

Please rest and take care of yourself >> Do I take it it's parasitic on E!Bookwyrm? Fair, but this was also a more basic point: I feel like it takes a base level of comfort to slide into the thread and just go "wow, Village FUD" instead of blending in the way E!you usually does, just pokevote someone and vanish. I do feel E!you overstates sometimes when trying to blend. It's where I am right now anyway, where it comes to you. Because I also didn't like the framing of his post, as I said in my earlier post this D2 - the one responding to you and outlining the structural similarities between how Bookwyrm frames his suspicions in the one E!Bookwyrm case. You've argued with me in LG91 about the extent to which we can expect teammates to dissuade rash courses of actions, and I've pointed out that historically Bookwyrm doesn't care: V or E, he still votes on highly populated trains, e.g. your QF, and then getting unnecessarily sussed for voting you D1 in LG91. It wasn't until Stick's prompt and Bookwyrm's reply that I started to seriously entertain V!Bookwyrm. And I was doing the mass re-read and reworking all the way through, which takes time, as I've alluded to in the thread. It's kind of hard for me to solidify a view until that's done, and even then, views shift a lot as a result of my going post-by-post. tldr; it's early D2, he can take some pressure, and part of it was the thought of what I said in response to you late D1: sure, it's hard to get a good read off Bookwyrm with a single datapoint but I was hoping that pressuring him would get better results. I would agree with this, but then the reason is kind of obvious...... It's the main V!Mat point I have in your favour apart from your tone/the feel of your indecision, TBH. It's less the rashness, more that I feel something like this is a deliberate play, and I don't think one just drops something on your team like this as a fait accompli. Small things yes, thread votes yes, but if you're going to gambit/pull a play, I sort of feel you want to make sure the team is on board with it first. Lone wolfing it isn't very prosocial, especially if you're one of the team's few thread control players, which may or may not be true, IDK, we're talking the hypothetical E!Mat world here. No comment on IC you, not interested I am simple man. If you are V, I don't want you dead. If you are E, I want you dead. Yeah, but it's not equal to me. Hael didn't care about Danex. I wanted to die. Aman E!read Danex. You're the only one of the four of them who actively did not want the main train or the CW so it felt like a very odd sort of position to me. Fair enough though about the Sunday, I guess I'm at the same place I am with regard to Stick - I'm fine flagging it for now, don't really know if I want to go ham on it, but if I were to E!read you, I think that's one place the hinge would be. You didn't, but you posted that you wanted to, so I do take that as something that makes me question how committed you really were to V!Danex and if it was post-hoc. Because only two players caught Aman D1/D2 in AG8, and that was TJ and Stick, and I'm neither of them, I just work differently. It's not a cop-out, it's a recognition I need more time to identify V or E Aman. If you noticed, every single consideration I had for E!Aman in LG91 was based off Xino suspicion, Xino's actions, or mech and distro analysis, none of which are applicable here. This is partly why I'm doing the re-reads and actively asking questions about things he's said. I'm not stopping you or Wiz either, which at the very least shows that I'm indifferent while I work out where I stand. I guess the short answer is I have to believe he is findable and that I am capable of revising my reads correctly in a timely manner, or I wouldn't be able to play this game for second-guessing myself. Actually, I was looking at your statement that we should look at the side-trains, made during D1 EoD, as you tend to not want to do side-train analysis, so that was something I found odd. Fair enough. But if that's the case, how does it make you feel that your main two candidates for the exe that you would vote are both on the main trains? Is this a good time to admit I have a blackout flipless game meant to be run in my LG slot. I think I had QF63 in mind here. I can understand your not wanting to vote Dannex and being strongly convinced that Dannex was Village, but the last time I felt this strongly about a player, I was very incentivised to flash wagon save them, even though that was quite honestly a bloody disaster. So this question is me trying to understand what's going on in your head: how do you both refer to Dannex as your strongest Village read, and not actually want to intervene in the lynch. One Village can't win the game by themselves but if you don't have your own convictions, what do you have? But ehhh an approach issue I guess. Okay, fair. One more question though: overtly Villagery in what sense? Well, I lied, a couple more. If you're concerned about Devo accuracy, do you take that to be a potential worry about your own read of Devo? Fair on Fifth, have been going back and forth on what to think. Alright, yeah, that makes sense to me. K I was gonna guess maybe QF59 but that's definitely not the game so I think I derped there. If it's a recent game, it has to be in the set of <MR56, QF59, BT1, LG83, MR57, LG84.> We can rule out QF59, BT1, and MR57. I doubt it's LG83 - the thread death alone caused me to go kayana. So it's in the set of <MR56, and LG84.> With MR56, it'd have to be Stick, almost - there's maybe Stink but your V read of Stink was based off his building a case against Mat instead, so IDK if that's what you were thinking of. Your V read of Archer was based off the role claim which you later took back. You sussed Devo and anyway Devo didn't case you. But I don't recall Stick building a case against you, so it can't be MR56 either. LG84? Archer started making a case for E!you but I don't think you V!read him as you CWed him and got him lynched. And he was Evil anyway. Oh yeah @Ookla the Tall I guess if you want an honest response, there's that too. I want to make sure if I sus and go after Aman, it's for pure reasons. LG84 was a clusterchull in every sense of the word. I've been there, I don't wanna be there again. I want to make sure I'm honest and fair when I take my shot, rather than paranoiding on him because he's Aman or just unfairly respect-paranoiaing him. So that's something ticking in the back of my mind when I do my reads. You'll notice I'm not defending him or stridently objecting to his train, just trying to get info to make up my own mind. You can see this as well at work in my refusal to paranoid on Illwei in our previous LG. I know where my weaknesses are, particularly where they involve being unfair to other players and trying to work on them/fix them matters to me. I'll probably get the reads wrong sometimes but it's still important to me to try to adjust the way I approach them all the same. Actually yeah wait it can't be LG84 either, the team was Illwei-Archer-Shadow-JNV, JNV absolutely did not case you because you were their lifetime achievement. ... AFAICT it wasn't LG71 either so this has officially become Someone Else's Problem Why doesn't it? The flight reason would've been good enough to stall suspicions. He'd look weirder if he didn't. It's possible. But it's something I want to keep in mind given the hypothesis that the Danex train wasn't pure. The more impure the Danex train is, the more kayana this is.

This actually makes things a bit more confusing. Devo posts the wrong votecount. This is the one missing Silver. Aman works with that vote count. Even after Hael comments that he's done his own votecount and fixed it: The misinformation persists because: Aman tie-breaks but: I feel like Aman sort of has Winz tie in mind but this is just kind of weird because it already is 5-4, and presumably Aman is aware his vote brings it to 5-4. Unless he was still working off Devo's count and just added Hael to it. Which is possible I guess. Mat explicitly doesn't want a Wiz train here, so is comfortable rolling the dice, which is a position that doesn't really feel like it makes sense with the supposed strength of his Danex read. I say this and yet I still don't feel you open as kayana as he did without making sure the team is good with it >> Either way, what's important is what I bolded: Mat is also under the impression that he would be tie-breaking. Hael, having also done a vc that shows this isn't a tie, now asks if it is a tie and figures it is a tie: And this sort of just perpetuates. Though again, IDK, how is this news to you if you were already considering and ruling out a move to me or Danex? Low key tempted to theorise a Devo-Aman-Mat-Hael Elim team where all of them just share the same confusion/tainted vc in the doc. Ok, conspiracy moment over. Let's get back to work. Tbf it's certainly possible the Elim team might not have had a good vc either, if they'd been lazy so this isn't a knock down point. What D2? I wouldn't consider my Village feels in any of their case to be powerful, hence my willingness to revise those in particular, but am curious why in your case. Fair. If you did want to yeet sidetrain, who? Wiz? Why so? And where does that put you on TUN with regard to TUN having immediately voted Mat for the WInzik claim? Feels like both he and Fifth were vocal about disliking the FUD. To be fair, I was too, just in meme form. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Your guess is as good as mine tbh. My one look at E!Bookwyrm was both opportunism and that he doesn't like to vote off-train. Struggles to generate suspicions when Elim and more consciously blends his posts into site meta format: I admit I can't really spell it out but this is something that influenced my outlook on him in the game: his post here is very 'polished', for want of a better word. It's thought out, careful, and correct. He later actually posts a proper tiered reads list. He does struggle with generating suspicions, but a bit more so when Evil. Whereas V!Bookwyrm just has Einstein tongue out photobomb moments (I WISH I KNEW HOW TO DESCRIBE IT BETTER I'M SORRY): I guess I just found them pure because they weren't really as 'crafted' or 'conventional.' Here, in the exchange you outlined, I struggle to form a coherent read. I do think the fact his responses seem more unorthodox is a point in his favour, hence my comment on purity. I could see V!Bookwyrm declining to comment on the you-me Evil comment because he doesn't feel he has enough information for that. I take your point about not factoring in your alignment, but I guess I'm just not sure I see V!Bookwyrm having the confidence to engage with that either. Just look at how many times he feels the need to tell us he's not sure, or subject to revision... Edited to add: Odd question for everyone. My voteswap was very last minute - suppose that's not clear to the Elims or they at least probably figured Danex was getting lynched, judging from Devo's and Fifth's comments. IDK. Part of me thinks that if they think JNV is Winz, they're just going to flip JNV anyway because why not, wincon right there. But if we believe the Danex train isn't pure, then this really narrows down the pool. In a V!Aman and/or V!Hael world, both of them immediately have a way of narrowing a potential Elim to hiding among three people on the train (i.e. whoever isn't them and isn't JNV.) Is this an acceptable outcome? Or do they withhold and figure they'll come back and finish JNV later or try to ML JNV? I guess there's the possibility the Danex train is pure as well. I'm just not sure what to think right now.

Backreading: Cycle One: I think I'm most comfortable with my V read of Stick. I don't feel so comfortable with a V read of Mat now that I've completed this - willing to agree with Stick on sus. Where Aman is concerned, I don't consider that sus, just ? Need to get a more solid read though. @Ookla the Myopic - Interested in where you swing E on him. Shockingly, willing to maybe lightly V read Wiz for that opener. I like Bookwyrm's reply to Stick in this cycle, if I'm being honest. It feels sort of pure in a way I haven't yet seen from E!Bookwyrm, but team composition/advice could easily change that. I am...maybe okay with my V read on Devo but I don't consider it strong. It has to do with the nature of her posts, mostly. They're more dgaf in a way I feel tends to emerge more naturally from V!Devo than E!Devo. That being said, Devo is one of the dgaf voters from last cycle so I'm not sure. Huh, additional question: @Ookla the Tall You usually argue that we can't assume that V/V trains means Elims on the side-trains. Why are you proposing this here? I remember we usually argue about this! I'm most willing to revise on Fifth and Hael as I am not sure my reasons are strong ones. AFAICT non-voters: <Almond, Insanity, Stick, TUN, Wiz> I am categorically unwilling to believe the Danex train is pure, at this size. Ah, thank you GM Almighty... This has interesting implications. A question is whether the Elims noticed, and were working off a different count/suggestion from us. Tempted to lean a little positive on Aman for missing this. I do wonder about Mat? It feels like Mat's dgaf makes more sense in this world, with a margin he wasn't going to be able to shift anyway. But at the same time, I feel like Mat genuinely didn't notice it either - easy to lay off Aman's sus on you by pointing out there just wasn't a tie in the first place. The two places I feel are least likely to be pure are the Danex train, and the five vote pool. Silver, I suppose. Hael is the other point of reconsideration but that doesn't feel quite right yet though IDK if I can be objective. Wiz and Stick are not players I want to vote on at this point within the non-voter pool. I could maybe be persuaded to Fifth but eh.

I >> Ok look I need some help here I'm sorry And it's not just you, if I'm right, it's everyone >> It is fair that I might be very very tired but like, can I just check some vcs in my notes against yours. Is there a reason we are asking repeatedly about ties? Because this looks to me like the vc pre-swap so there's...IDK, no reason to bother? With vote manip or anything? IDK I just wonder about what we are all smoking because we kept saying there's a tie and there wasn't one even prior to my grumpy switch.

Still working on the backread >> Can't get contemporary until I do. I don't think it's as bad as Orlok's timing though, I expect to be up to date fairly soon. @Szeth_Pancakes Apologies to bother on a similar point again: did you miss Devo's vote on Fifth or is this votejacking action? I don't see it in the count.