Kasimir

MR56, as Annihilation yes. I think you noticed because of her Haywire claim that she targeted Experience when she really had no reason to? And then worked out Stink was Evil as well. I think I'm trusting my past self here. E!Stick seemed Evil to me in basically everything except the later half of D3 in LG91, and I haven't gotten a strong/consistent Evil read off her until I started to reconsider in C4. IDK. If I were in better shape I could try to re-read her but not like this I think. I just feel reluctant to vote Hael somehow and I don't understand why when on his posts alone I've never upgraded him beyond null.

Theoretically yes but the subforum mods yell as this is technically against the rules. Some don't care but due to I think...El yelling? And one other mod I don't recall who. I recall a recent GM (sorry brain is cooked rn) disqualifying an edited in vote...and I think it was @Araris Valerian in LG90 - D1 Silho's vote? - on those grounds. So recently I've started to drop reminders in my rulesets just so people don't get caught out in other games and lose their vote for no good reason.

1. Please don't edit votes in, some GMs don't count that. 2. You may want to red it properly and bold it... I feel you though this flu is wild...

That's the other problem though. But that being said, does it matter? Sorry, again thinking aloud: Lynch priority matters here only evidentially, right? Because the Elims don't win by outnumbering us, the only way they win is if: -We accidentally lynch IC -They kill IC And the two points lead to no IC left. Normally there'd be urgency to just go for the one we're fairly sure is Evil because we need to hold off lylo. But that dynamic doesn't obtain here minus Elim vote dominance worries. I'm still thinking about what Stick said, whether we have to come back to the her-Hael-me problem again. I guess the Elim could screw with us more by withholding the kill, but is a world in which we flip TUN and the Elims make another kill (if it follows the pattern, in the <Insanity, Almond, Nerdy, Bookwyrm> pool) the worst for us? (You can replace Nerdy with TUN here, I'm not sure that changes the dynamic too much more.) I guess the other world I can see: we flip Hael, and the Elims probably kill within <TUN, Insanity, Almond, Nerdy, Bookwyrm>. Feels like we won't get a noisy player flip from the NK. ...I don't know where I'm going anymore. I suppose the only thought I have is technically killing a player you are fairly sure is Evil is usually the right move but in this case, tactically, it doesn't really save us. Wrt the Mat-Stick conversation I guess.

I feel like there's an implied crossroads here tbqh. I am thinking aloud here more than committing: If TUN flips red, we'd be explicitly looking for TUN partners, I think. I do feel TUN flipping red might defer this, insofar as we could actively confront and potentially falsify the hypothesis that there is an Elim in <Stick, me, Hael, Mat.> Or let me rephrase this for everyone's benefit, I guess. Short of flipping everyone in me, Hael, Mat, what pieces of evidence would satisfy you that we are in an E!TUN world where E!TUN made that kill call? Because if TUN flips red and you still want to go back to the <Hael, Stick, me, Mat> set, then IDK if the TUN exe is really worth it. The one world I want us to avoid, and the only reason I am actively asking this, is the world in which we are so hard-committed to the Set of Four that if Hael or I flip green, y'all continue trying to hunt in that Set and we lose. If TUN flipping red/green explicitly confirms/disconfirms the Elim in Set hypothesis, then it might be worth doing. Because I think the real question is where we should be looking for the Elims. Looking in the Set of Four is a whole different ballpark from say, a <TUN, Nerdy> set. If TUN flips green, then it absolutely has to be among us. If TUN flips red, it could be either. But I don't want to go for a TUN exe actively hoping he'll flip green just for clarity: that's twisted and not the way to play this. Edited to add: @Amanuensis VC as requested Is there a world in which we are just lacking Nerdy commitment? But IDK I don't really E read him. SIgh.

Presume it's the JNV Winzik thing? Is it possible to learn this power >> 'Cause ngl I genuinely dfgi how Bev'ika is still a null for me, minus good feels over the JNV Winzik thing and the Silver vote. The other thing I'm struggling with is I'm not computing how much Hael is a gambit player as compared to a strat player. Anyone with a memory sound off but I felt he was the guy on the Sith team most inclined to play it straight unless I'm forgetting something. Gonna open the doc and check again after this. Edited to add: Rerun ideas @Szeth_Pancakes :eyes: Me signing up for this game: Me: "It'll be fun right? We even have confirmed Villagers!" Szeth: "There will be confirmed Villagers." Me: "Excellent, I'll just ID them and-" Szeth: "But you won't know who they are." Me: D:??? Szeth: "In fact if they out themselves, you die and you lose." Me: "What sort of cursed monkey's paw game is this D:" #IncorrectSEQuotes j/k much love Szeth, as much as this is frustrating me.

This is what keeps stopping me... :|

Is this a good time to mention I'm more ruthless as Elim? I mean, bro, I C1ed you in BT1. I felt bad about it, sure. But after my team lost LG5, I don't really believe in holding back. I can see where that'd make a game more fun but unless it's an issue of ethics, I usually try not to. Again, you can take this with salt if you want to. I just wanted to say it for postgame posterity I guess And also because IDK, I feel you have a better opinion of E!me than the reality, and I guess I wanted to set the record straight. E!me is scrappy as all heck because of that string of bad E experiences where I know the game can turn on you at the drop of a hat (remember, the GM and IM were more or less calling the game for my team before we lost in a single cycle because of two Villagers PMing each other, and I think also Luckat showing up and analysing the write-ups to ID us) so I don't believe in getting exotic, just getting the job done. It makes me a very unfun Elim, yeah, and I'm sorry for it. I'd definitely refrain from C1ing you and stuff like that as far as I can, but deliberately pulling a kill like this just feels like baiting the game gods who have historically never smiled on E!me prior to this year. (See: ensuing QF59 breakdown when I had to 1v2 Archer and Maili.) My problem is my Hael vote is functionally a PoE vote. I don't read his posts as Evil. I don't read his posts as anything tbqh, and that scares me.

Sigh. Yeah I know :/ I really haven't felt this lost in a game since MR56 or since Mat was FUDing me uber-hard in QF62 and my brain was melting :/ I am going to need my emotional support Wormmon to handle this :/ Where' Devo for some good sense :/ Oh right they friggin' murdered her :/

Mood. Can I offer you a potato in these troubling times.

Hmm. No, not explicitly - he prefers to let the Village guide the exe. This is where I think the reactivity/E!Mat's assertiveness issue comes up again and was why I was V!reading him for it, albeit with regard to his stance on Silver. That and I powerfully vibed with his reaction to D1 which was me @ D2 Bookwyrm in LG91. Yeah, ok, I'm down with hard V!Mat. I feel that at some point, you can't stack too many gambits, or you'll be hanging them like hams from the rafters to make room for them. The fact we're relooking <you, me, Mat, Hael> already suggests we are postulating at least one counterintuitive thing. If we postulate too much more, we're just going to have to accept the player isn't Elim. Which is more or less where I'm circulating back to on Mat. So ok V!Mat. In theory the main reason I wanted to relook Mat is I didn't want to have us ML our way through our set and just fail to rethink Mat. I'm aware I'm not doing that with Aman, but I've made my views on the matter amply clear, I think. I just do not see E!Aman reacting this way instead of going for division play, and I do feel relatively alright with that read. Between you and Hael, the funny thing is that while I was side-eying you last cycle and sort of still am, I guess I should be more worried that I don't have that much on Hael. Like, I can actively flag where I'd have to make assumptions or stack IKYKs to read E!you, which can be done, and with Hael, the one turning point is functionally the Silver lynch/bus. I will say the fact E!you is boxing yourself in in this scenario is maybe a good sign, because you're more or less committed to V!Mat, V!Aman, and even if you flipped me, you'd have to go Hael. Bah, part of my brain says we don't know how close we are to lylo, but even then... But no, I also like the tinfoil because I recall E!you didn't even remotely tinfoil as much. Then again there's Hael's speculation of me-Aman E/E at C2 EoD... IDK how I feel about his posts, I've gone back and scanned them and nothing jumps out at me either way but it could also be my current exhausted/sick/"YOU WERE MY BRO, Hael vod!" state so I don't trust me. Which is retreading the same circles again I know, but what can I say, I'd be upset with myself if I didn't try to think it through. I guess it's odd to talk to a player I don't actively suspect but am trying to rethink since I'm rethinking the whole set and just sort of randomly babble my thoughts into the thread but IDK I just want someone to yell at me and tell me I'm kayana and make everything make sense ._. And I'm aware that desire is dangerous because idk if they're Village either .__.

Eh, soddit, lesgo. I don't know how much time I'll have tomorrow. Flu and errand and all. I probably can check intermittently but that's it. So I guess I should do that thing unless someone @everyone if you can find a way to make a team and just everything make sense without an Elim in <me, Stick, Hael, Mat> please let me know because I don't want to self-cannibalise if I can possibly avoid it. I blame AG2 trauma. Reiterating that I don't mind being flipped because I honestly don't believe I am capable of being useful to the Village in my current state, and if you need my slot cleared, go for it, I don't mind and won't consider it rude if you exe me in absentia. Hael.

Sigh. Really feels like rock and hard place rn tbh. I don't want to shoot blindly into the <you, Hael, Mat> pool. I hate self-cannibalising on principle and it feels like doing this is playing into the Elims' hands. At the same time, I really feel like there is no other way to make sense of this. I feel like I'm still between TUN and Hael right now. But I genuinely don't know if these kills are TUN - does TUN kill the population he'd be hoping to blend in with? I recall doing NKA with Ash and Ash noting that TUN likes retaliation kills and noise kills, which is a profile I'd agree with? So that just confuses me a lot. The issue is that the last game I played with E!Hael was either MR38a where I think he was part of the team that orchestrated a C1 win utilising Village laxity and a bug in the rules, and QF46, where his vote patterns stood out a lot more. He's yet another player for whom I just don't have a baseline and I hesitate to go further back in time because I feel that sort of profile would be so dated it's barely useful. I could see E!Hael having the strat cunning to work this out, IDK how much E!Hael gambits, but I sort of feel like I'm being driven there by PoE. The big question in my head between TUN and Hael is more if an Elim team with TUN as the anchor can do what we've seen. Because if TUN isn't anchor, then we are back to the set of three. I think there are just too many factors suggestive of an anchor player (I know we know this but I need to type this out for my own thoughts): -The kill patterns don't fit. Either they are low info kills, which still suggest one thread active player, or they are snipes, which suggests we need a player capable of sniping. -I do not think a team of just low activity or new players are as comfortable with leaving noisy players alive, or are as confident in sitting deep and sniping. There has to be one player with that nerve. -The snipes suggest either someone who knows players well enough, or can read for enough hints. Tbf, Hael was fairly accurate in my MR, if the Elims had listened to him (IDed Drake fairly early though he didn't realise it I think.) -Even in the world where the Xino kill is an accident, e.g. something like Octopus gate in AG8, the first three points seem to be true no matter what. -Going back...in that world, Silver seems to have been a deliberate bus, or a passive one. Minimally, Mat was never going to be able to do that given his Silver V!read. Which reminds me that I also V!read Mat because that direct defense of Silver tends to be too assertive for him. Ok then, V!Mat I guess. [If the fact I'm switching from V!Mat to E!Mat confuses you - this ending was written before the last paragraph. I'm not as sold on it but felt it had to be said anyway.] Ok. Stick, Devil's Advocate - Aman exe -> E!Mat replicating the fact V!him is known to tunnel, as the dead doc in LG90 kept pointing out he didn't do it. Fifth exe -> weak preference to take out an active player as compared to Xino who wasn't showing up and could be MLed again the next Turn. I'm honestly not sure myself I fully buy it but I feel you are being too quick to assert E!Mat has no reason to tiebreak when you yourself benefited from that reasoning in LG91 D1. You can say that's different and you had reasons but my point is that from a Village perspective, that's the very same conclusion we draw. Edited to add: I think part of my problem is TUN doesn't look very Village to me (a lot of his voting motivations so far seem to be so he can be V!read which I don't feel great about) but he just doesn't fit the profile either. In theory he could anchor Silver but the profile I've listed suggests one of <Mat, Stick, Hael> has to be Evil because I sure know it ain't me.

Thanks, good to know until/unless some IC gets themselves killed that way >>

Frick for some reason I was thinking 1AM to 1PM. I really shouldn't be SEing with my brain in this state ._. But yeah fair, either way I am only interested if blatant filter dodging happens. Not for the kill then, but FNG lurker still happens and as a player who benefited from FNG in my first Elim game, I'm always wary someone might be trying that strat. @Szeth_Pancakes This is a QF so no pinch-hitters right? Just a filter death? I s2g if he is Winzik and filter-seppukus... -.-

Good luck, sorry to hear! -Given that Almond is on the filter, prefer not to theorise any Almond teams unless they show up again. They're someone else's problem. If they're blatantly filter-dodging, that's whoever who's alive's problem next cycle. @_Stick_, while I see your point about the thread, I do want to note that as of now, Almond's last login was 0633hrs yesterday for me. This means they theoretically could have submitted a kill, and be playing a lurker strategy. I don't want to encourage too much paranoia here, but I will note FNG Lurker is a potential strat and I'll be more concerned about it if Almond checks back in just shy of rollover (but at the same time I do want V!Almond to check back in lol.) I guess part of me is thinking we just don't know enough about how - huh. @ExoticAlmond, out of curiosity, have you played these sorts of games before? RL or online? Among Us? -I don't currently E!read Bookwyrm and I'm having a hard time E!reading Nerdy's posts. But this makes the Xino kill all the weirder. -IDK about Insanity I guess, so I could put her back into my pool but I seem to remember Stick said something there? Do you remember what, my brain is cooking rn .__. -TUN is in my pool. Processing latest post. -Between <Mat, Stick, Hael, Aman>, I guess I'd go with Hael. But #feelsbadman. Edited to add: Honestly, right now, it feels like a massive failure of imagination. Araris saying in I think AG8, "One of them must have slipped by us by doing something unexpected," is coming to mind.

@Amanuensis, as requested: (1) Kas opens on Xino: (2) Stick votes for Hael: (3): Almond joins on Xino: (4): Kas swaps to Bookwyrm: (5): Nerdy doubles on Xino: (6): Bookwyrm questions Nerdy. This is 2259hrs in the thread, so almost ten hours after rollover. (7): Interaction with Stick - end at 2322hrs. No new votes in this interim. (7): At 2337hrs - Stick votes Silver (8): At 2340hrs, Wiz votes Aman. (9) At 0032hrs, Aman asks Bookwyrm which train he would prefer: (10): At 0110hrs, Bookwyrm says he's thinking about it. This is ten minutes shy of Rollovet, the halfway point between rollovers. @Amanuensis To be quite honest, when I re-read this, my 'gun to my head' stance is I don't think Bookwyrm is Evil. There's been enough candidates introduced by now. Re-reading his QF63 posts again, Bookwyrm's raw opportunism strikes me - I don't see how E!Bookwyrm resists just finding a train to park on, given how many there are here not Silver, and then 'changes his mind' later or not. There's just...no associated cost. I will grant that: 1. QF63 had the confounding factor where you have a 40% chance of dying if you don't vote, and 2. Bookwyrm may very well be being advised by a teammate. With all of that, I cannot make sense of E!Bookwyrm doing this. I think he's Village. Edited to add: Even if there is no theoretical pressure to vote, as there's only a single vote on Silver, he had no issues just finding something... Edited to add 2: Tbh I would prefer you did tinfoil as I don't see E!you tinfoiling as often

Tbh I can do things like that if you put the request in the thread in the next two hours. I shouldn't be this drained or feeling this ineffective, but I am, and simple things like this I can still do. And at least I can still be useful this way. Give me a few to wrangle this. My recollection from QF63 is typically just that E!Bookwyrm has difficulty generating suspicions: a typical post of his with a vote: Silho vote and reasons: I note it's opportunistic because it came after thread appetite for Silho. He retracts it when Silho interacts with him: And goes back: Xino vote and reasons: So I'll note I don't feel strongly about this; if I want to make an E!Bookwyrm case, my thoughts would just be: E!Bookwyrm tends to frame his E!thoughts in a pro-meta way, and I noticed one or two posts that fit the bill when I was backreading earlier, fishing them out is a different story but I can do that later. It's possible E!Bookwyrm found it easier to resist a Xino vote than to try to find reasons or build a case. Wouldn't be the first Elim to do that. But then. AGAIN. We come back to the same problem of who is the partner in an E!Bookwyrm world???? Because I do not really think those kills are E!Bookwyrm kills at all.

Edited to add: LG90 - V, Village won. BT3 - Odd game, do not rec looking, it's the Village kill one I was telling you about. QF63 - Evil, found by opportunistic vote patterns and weird, pro-meta posts. Evil won because I failed the Village at lylo But we lynched Bookwyrm at least. MR61 - Village, MLed, still maintain the fact Ash and Mat said nothing should've been telling, Village won LG91 - Village, MLed, Village won. Edited to add 2: You didn't even want to look at Xino's meta, and suddenly my meta matters to you? Edited to add 3: Edited to add 4: I feel like the guy and the butterfly meme right now. Part of me wants to ask if this is overexplaining, part of me just goes "you fool there's nothing wrong with it." I am seriously down for chilling in the dead doc with Fifth and Araris, FYI. I just feel like I'm bashing my head repeatedly against a wall rn.

Tbfh I really don't care. We know I'm not IC and if Orlok clearing lynching me is what it takes, go ahead. Sure, in an ideal world I'd make a compelling defense since that's my job, but in this game, technically it don't really matter if I die because the Elims sure as hell ain't gonna kill me because I'm not IC. Pragmatically, I have felt lost as all frick since the Xino kill, and since last cycle when I came around to the view the kill patterns don't make sense. That's probably a sign I badly need to rethink someone. But who. Rethinking me is good and I encourage you to do it so go ahead ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ At least someone is making more sense of this than I am. FWIW if I'm on at the end and you need me to vote myself to settle a tie, I'll do it ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ IDK if it's just the flu (hi, just went down, another reason I don't particularly care to), but I just feel very demoralised and confused by my inability to make sense of the last two cycles. MR56 flashbacks I guess. I'm tired still so I'm not going to do anything extensive here. I'd rather try to see if I can offer better suses. But I'm still disturbed by how much leeway TUN is getting, IMO, for what is essentially a C2 apathy clear. I don't see anything else TUN has done that helps the Village or is Village. Be happy if someone can point me to what I'm missing. It's C5 now. This is obscenely late to have an unhelpful TUN. I'm still on him. I guess maybe I was too quick on Hael but I'm not sure about that one. Because if not Stick, and not Mat, then ok we can flip me. But after me, if you still want a noisy kill, FWIW, I think it has to be Hael. I just do not intuitively feel good about Stick next to Hael tbh and that's the only thing driving the fact I keep coming back to Stick. Sort of "ok if I have to revise, gun to my head, who do I revise on." IDK if this is because bro feelings are blinding me to Hael but that's fine, I can go re-read him in a bit, I have meds and tea, and two hours before I need to get more sleep. FWIW (sorry so many digressions): -I'm not revising Aman. Hardlock Village. -I get all the arguments for Village Stick. I just still am on everything I mentioned C4. But I also still feel her solving orientation and attitude feels fundamentally distinct from her approach in LG91. So IDK. -I am worried I shouldn't lock Mat Village. I know the tunnel is what makes everyone else consider Mat Village. To me, it's still the opening claim. IDK how an Elim makes that. At the same time, I'm not fully sure I feel Stick on his play because I've been quite the opposite for chunks of this game. Potential sniper. -Hael. ...Ok tbh the fact that I actually full null on Hael and the most positive thing I feel he has done is the Silver vote and the JNV-Winzik thing should make me worried I guess. IDK. I guess I could say I should just equal opportunity rethink <Stick, Mat, Hael>. But I also worry I've talked myself into an AG2 trap here to be honest. My problem is I was ok with V reading everyone but I can't see how this works if one of them isn't Evil >> K. So my unextensive replies: Low profile kill isn't my kill pattern. If you think I hid it, you can read through my Elim docs in MR59 and QF59 that I typically subordinate my kills to teammates to hide a distinctive pattern. This means that I would have been letting someone else make the kill decisions, but then you're essentially using someone else's kill patterns to say I'm Evil. You can argue that I IDed Devo and JNV off the IC doc, but I should've been able to recognise if Wiz wasn't IC. If you think I'm that good at IDing people off AG8, and I agree, I'm sorry, Wiz would not have been a snipe from me if I had IC doc access. I would like to think I have far better accuracy than that. So I'm the one who needs it to be explained why I'm still alive, but not you or Hael, both of whom have not been hardcleared as not IC? Really? Killing JNV C1 is harsh, even for me. I like playing with them, and I'm aware they like playing with me. Even if I IDed them as IC, why not give them a cycle or two? They're not going anywhere, and they can always be MLed as well. And...not to be cold, but JNV typically supports me in the thread. If I know they are IC, they can die whenever I kill them. Why would I immediately take off the board a player who is basically more or less guaranteed to be in my corner unless I do something majorly sus? They've said multiple games now that they have a tendency to V!read me, sometimes to their detriment. And if I theorised they were Winz, I'd want that vote manip on my side, holy chull. For that matter, my typical IDing accuracy is known. Why not go one or two weird kills to obscure things before going for the ICs? Again, they're not going anywhere. Why am I not guiding the lynch to IC candidates? What's the point of thread control if you don't even use it? I essentially sat back and shrugged C3 and went for Xino and refused to back Fifth. Why not make a more decisive Silver bus? There's no reason for me to switch between Nerdy and Silver, if both are Evil. I should be indifferent to them. Having at least made an argument for E!Silver and having had none for E!Nerdy, there's no reason for me to vote Nerdy at all. I said they were a null for me, but I'd get more credit having stuck to Silver instead of making that indecisive Nerdy hop. Tbqh I was honest in the thread when I said E!Kas is more careful about any kind of emotion than V!Kas because I have strong lines about emotional manipulation, whereas V me often just feels it and doesn't quash it, and doesn't have a doc/team place to vent into, and sometimes bad things happen like threadbrawls or explosions that I later regret. You can read between the lines in my conversation with Archer in the dead doc in LG91 on self-voting, and I point you back to the fallout and blowback from the AG8 finale where I was one of the players making a strong statement about how you have to be damned careful about it. I would like to invite you to carefully and thoroughly ask if I would, given these known profiles outside of the game, seriously and willingly make a controversial self-vote to try to guilt people into saving me and Village reading me. I would like you to ask if you think E!me would consider the impacts or the fallout after the game, if it was clear that that stunt was just to get a decent Village read and coast through part of the game. I would further like to ask you, and this is one reason why I Village read Aman so hard (sorry Aman), if you think this is a case of a player weaponising his pain to help his team get an advantage and if he would feel happy about winning that way, or any further effects on the community. In a simple sentence; if we can no longer trust players if they say they are not having fun, if the 'tap out' is no longer sacred, SE breaks down. Because we will be incentivised to question that in future, or we will be incentivised to leave. No one wants to keep getting gulled or taking the L. Just from me, I'd rather get C1ed and take the L than be known to do this. Which is where Archer says hard tells are bad and Connie is known to do it - which, sure. But admittedly I don't usually get that button pushed either and had been explicitly planning to play this game softing IC to try to draw a kill. But time wrecks all our plans I guess. Anyway if this line of reasoning makes you feel uncomfortable, feel free to ignore it. But I'm just putting it out there because I think willingly, thoughtfully or otherwise, you are saying E!me functionally decided the win mattered more than my ethics or any knock-on effects on the SE community. Which, ngl, is where I'd be a bit of a psychopath I guess. But honestly I'm cool with a me exe. I haven't felt I've done anything useful beyond that last second vote that cycle, and since I'm sick, I'm just not going to be doing major analysis for the most part, but I'll give what I can for this cycle. I've been living on borrowed time so I'm pretty cool with this.

Not that I recall. I kept seeing myself and Mat, Aman showed up but could've been the remnant log, and Hael. Fifth and Devo and Araris too. Do you have explanations other than a gambit and a mistake? I mean the Almond issue is back to: they had someone else who put in the NK + an Almond/Silver team doesn't work... I am sticking to my conviction that V!TUN would have made more of an impact by now. Nerdy will be dead if he doesn't post but I can also understand your desire not to leave this to a late post. Why are you hardlocking Mat Village? I still come back to that opening TBH.

Before I forget: TUN Where I am now, I am ok going back to Nerdy later, but will at least need some sleep before trying to re-read/re-think. Edited to add: Tbh - it's just going to be a mess for me because I have a personal errand to run that can't wait tomorrow, and I really, badly need sleep, my brain is shutting down after two weeks of exam-report-World Cup sleep debt, so IDK how useful I will be. But I will do what I can in gaps, just need rest now.

Sure. But do you kill a more or less guaranteed non-IC? Why go for one IC kill when you could have two, and therefore do better at furthering your wincon in a single cycle? >> IDK, I don't think it's as irrational as you are painting it for E!you to go off Aman after that turning point. As you say, going to Fifth is functionally 'letting the Village handle it.' I say even as I squint at Hael again... That's sort of the problem we're back to, yeah. Almond-Silver-Nerdy? Seriously? Aman asked what partner lets that kill go, I ask what GM lets that rand go. All new players. I mean, Mat did let Turtle/Bookwyrm go but theoretically Turtle has more experience than that. I'm not as sure now. Because yes, but at the same time - it's the thread control worries I was mulling over last Turn. It doesn't feel like it fits the team profile any longer, and while it might explain why I am not dead, you are not dead, and Aman is not dead...Yeah. Very crudely: it doesn't explain why Stick and Hael aren't dead. :eyes: In a two Elim world, that'd be my pool/take, anyway. I'm more wondering how badly off my mental models are in that case. But I almost feel like it'd be down to <Stick, Hael, Kas> with a TUN side - why wouldn't you just bus Silver for Village credit in that world? I think my question is still: cui bono? And what's the expected gain of the gambit? Village cred for not submitting the kill? Skipping the kill usually is a hefty commitment, especially if you're already with a decent positive bank in Village cred. To be clear, I'm not disagreeing with the gambit hypothesis, but I'm trying to work out what the calculus is here and make it make sense.

I guess the one issue is: given vote volatility over the past few cycles, do you really gamble with that? It feels to me like you don't put a kill on Xino unless a dead Xino is actually acceptable to you even if volatility happens. While I joke about Stick's "Aman should WGG", and want to leave that aside for the moment: If Xino were just the Elim IC candidate, they should be fine leaving him to get MLed next IMO. The fact they were ok with killing him feels like a suggestion they believed he would no longer be MLed once Nerdy flipped. Edited to add: @Haelbarde, @Amanuensis IMO we only began to entertain more active Elim team members more seriously last cycle. Odds this was meant to draw our attention back to the inactives because only an inactive/low activity member could've 'missed switching the kill'? Edited to add 2: @Matrim's Dice Your thoughts too

I have an odd question to stack onto this. I'm running a brief 'if I'm Evil, who do I kill C4' experiment in my GM PM as Xino is odd to me. ...In a set-up like this with so few Elims and the Village winning when they kill all the spies, the possibility of Village friendly fire... Is two Elims outlandish? Because it feels like that would change the profile we are looking for even more. Silver did go quiet as well before dying. That aspect makes me feel like it was planned on Silver's part. Retaliation kill could make sense, but...does it though. This team seems to be shooting in a potential IC pool?