Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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Eh. I feel this is more true of Alpha than of Araris, since Araris is famous for his stab votes. I could see this as a bit of a reason for V!Alpha, yeah, which is where I'm currently at, and take it as a positive sign that Alpha isn't coasting on the earlier V read, which I've been worried about. And then you ruined it again by changing your vote... @Araris Valerian - Why V!Xino read btw? In a V!Xino world, which is what I'm leaning towards for now, this is what the dynamic looks like: Xino is fourth voter on Ash, and then Wiz swaps to Xino, and Sart backs him up. There's a world where Ash is Evil and the Xino train, as TJ interprets, is the preferred CW. In that world: Wiz looks especially bad for making an Ash to Xino switch. (Yes I'm aware I've said otherwise, I'm all over the place this cycle, guilty as charged.) I am not sure this entails E!Sart - Sart has a more natural CW on Wiz IMO in light of that vote. But it also sort of surprises me that Sart doesn't latch onto what everyone else latches onto, which is the fact that Xino was fourth voter on the Ash train. It's Xino's activity that sets Sart off, which feels like such a weird accusation to make? The tunnelly part of me thinks that this is because Sart doesn't care about the thread except to vote on a CW, the non-tunnelly part of me thinks that an Elim just generally has a better fabricated option. I will award Sart one in this world. He gets a special Gomamon because it physically hurts my spleen to admit he might not look so Evil after all :| Subsequently, TJ stacks onto Ash, which is a fundamentally good look for him. Telrao ties Ash and Xino by voting on Xino. It is possible I guess that Telrao is trying to save Ash? Not sure. I will say that lethal votes from new(er) players always raise my eyebrows because people tend to be kill-shy at the start, though maybe Telrao is just bloodthirsty. No idea. Award half a Alpha sheeps onto Xino, which :| Fingers twitching on , but doesn't feel quite right in this context. I'm still flagging this as a voteshift that makes me uneasy. Archer and Xino not teamed I guess Though the Telrao shift could easily be vote dilution. Interesting thing in this world: I move onto Ash, and Araris moves off onto Telrao, which nominally means that instead of tying Ash and Xino, Ash once again lags Xino. for the shift on Araris's part. In a V!Xino, V!Ash world, there's a lot of vanity voting going around. Wiz's vote doesn't look so weird: it could be a Villager being spooked by Xino's vote, or it could be an Elim who is trying to get off a bad train and score some Village credit in the bargain. No clear read here I think. Sart stacking on...Ugh. I kind of want to say it looks opportunistic, but again, E!Sart can go basically anywhere, it doesn't frickin' matter. Stacking onto Xino like this is such a weird decision I feel it physically hurts me to say this but maybe? TJ choosing V!Ash over V!Sart doesn't really feel right. It feels sus and gerrymandered I think if E!Sart-E!TJ. In a V!Sart world, TJ should just go for Sart instead of creating elaborate reason to vote for Ash. I think I'm making less sense as this analysis goes on but hell, let's just try anyway. ??? Telrao tying Ash and Xino is a point of interest in this world. He's theoretically indifferent if Evil but isn't here. I'm curious about the reasons as that's a bit decisive and confident and I need a better feel for Telrao to know how to read this. Similar for Alpha, though I have independent reason to lean V on Alpha. I guess main conclusions for me: -Downgrade read of Wiz; one and one is absolutely a bad place to be. -Moderate TJ read: either way sort of looks ok unless I've gone kayana. -I actively dislike that I think Sart is IDK if I will stay on Ash but there's still time left in the cycle for me to decide and relook/rethink with sleep.
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Yes please. Both that and why Telrao!
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Fair. Tbh I kind of want to move him up to , but I also know I always want Araris to be Village to the point it eclipses my good sense, so... (Just feel I vibed with the last post and it's fairly sensible.) I had typed something a bit longer here, but was being careful about it because I don't want OOG approval PMs to start being mined for alignment info, so I think keeping it as far out of this game as possible is best. In short, neither Archer nor I responded to Mat's ruleset, and the OG ruleset as submitted to us never had PM creation count as an action anyway. I believe Archer is confusing this with TKN's current rule approval PM in which he does raise the protection question/worry with regard to players agreeing to PM a protected player. I consider it NAI for Archer one way or another as rules confusion is normal to both V and E Archer. You could argue I suppose that at most it probably indicates Archer and I aren't E/E as I'd probably have pointed that out in the doc prior to this. Edited to add: Why sitting on it can be good!
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Seen on Reddit: This guy made a Windrunner pen! :eyes: I get that, it's such a nice blue...
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You've had far more proactive Village C1s recently, including MR62 and LG92. Not sure why that's supposed to be strange. I'd also note if you are deliberately playing your Elim tells to obscure your Elim self, then it's hard to expect players to want to buy that you are Village because that is precisely not what you are going for. Go PM someone else. I intend to spend the Nights watching Digimon (and tbh a decent chunk of the Days), not dealing with people. This is a chill game for me and I intend to let it stay that way. ^^^ Where I'm at if it's between Ash and Xino. IDK, I just still get a more positive read off Xino and that's after going through LG91, LG90, and QF63. Thread engagement feels more in the vein of V!Xino and less constricted than E!Xino. Why Araris? And what's your Archer suspicions based off?
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IDK. I'm not approaching this game seriously honestly I'm mostly marathoning Digimon and occasionally trying to make sense of things. It's D1 just past Rollovet so I'm not wedded to my reads and if they don't make sense, I'm happy to abandon them. See, because my impression is Chameleon didn't really have that either? But I'll go relook later if I feel bored after this episode. That's one reason why he's sunk in alongside general passivity, yes. FYI, and more general reminder to everyone: Be careful about claiming in PMs. If a PM was made by an Elim, even if it doesn't include them, telling people you are the thread spokesperson for Role X/Y could be giving that info to the Elims, despite thinking you are being clever. Source: I'm sorry I got Mat killed in LG78 (?) because I claimed to know someone Link wanted to meet up with And E!Drake made that PM Edited to add: Why do I want to ...whyyyyyyyyyy
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That's fine, I don't need PMs in the Digital World anyway :eyes: Have fun with that!
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Why should I? :eyes:
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I don't feel you did, tbh. Six minute delay felt hella long, and I recall seeing both my GM PM and realising the thread was empty. If your view is you're Village and you went directly to the thread, and he's there too, then I'd be forced to revise upwards, though not too strongly, because he's mentioned the need to break that pattern as an Elim. I was reading it more as arguing that since Rushu is pro-Village, Rushu is more likely to be Village, contra my claim that I think an E!Rushu distro is more likely. But ok, fair, since that's an automatic thing Rushu does regardless of role, so I see what you mean by not really engaging. ...I am not re-reading LG92 I am not I am not I am not that drek is too long. Can you summarise for me why/where you see V!Wiz as being solvey? Because I'm not catching the difference here. Given I'm voting someone in that category, that seems to be the incorrect interpretation of the category
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Went back to briefly take a glance at QF63 and LG90. I sort of want to give Xino a because he's tonally consistent in terms of posting and engagement with QF63 and LG90, in which he was both Village. But then... There's a confidence and ease in his engagement with the thread for trivialities that I don't recall him showing in LG91 as an Elim. But let's pull out LG91 to check: He does meme, but there's no real engagement IMO. Multiple pages of thread, another post from Xino. Tone not as casual as the earlier samples IMO. Tone here is more casual, but also not disconnected from the game. RP. Ookla notification. That's all, and I scrolled through a 15 page D1 for this, refuse to remotely touch LG92. In conclusion, the difference is more muted, so I'm considering downgrading that to a read, which is still an upgrade from where he was. I do agree that same sort of tone and engagement pattern shows up with E!Xino as well (cf. LG91), just feel that he's more casual than later E!Xino was, so more reminiscent of QF63 and LG90. Don't feel convinced enough to Gomamon Award him though. Current Reads/Thoughts: Continued. : Kas : Alpha, Stick : TJ, Araris, Xino, Wiz Marching Fishes! JNV, TJ, Araris i.e. people I'm not down to vote today. : TKN, Sart, Archer, Ash, Devo, Telrao Moved Wiz into the unclear category as well. I wasn't sure it seemed artificial - if Rushu keeps PMs open, then on one reading, Rushu is a pro-Village role, whether Elim or not. You could argue that I'm being too charitable, which is fair, and I will agree it doesn't fully engage with my point. I think my question here is, what's your baseline for Wiz? I'm thinking early AG9, maybe a touch of QF64 here. I don't find that too out of range, because I died in AG9 before he got any solving energy ( ) but am not sure if there's something I'm missing. After relooking the Creston game, I felt like he made more attempt to manufacture analysis there than I'm seeing here, which makes me lean a bit V. My initial E read, ironically, is based off how long it took for him to show up in the thread, as he's known to love docs.
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That's why I said Evil Tineye reasons, with the Evil nerf aspect coming with regard to action submission in endgame. I think it's a good role to have on Team Evil because forcing the Village to get rid of PMs is what I'd argue to be Evil-leaning but not substantively so. So graded Gizamon (lighter Evil than Gesomon, but.) Unlikely for the entire Evil team to be full of roles either, anyway. I'd expect a distribution. @Archer - I can attest to remembering Telrao's ninja coming in a second or after I clicked Update, so I wouldn't class this as being responsive of/to pressure. It showed up when the page reloaded after I hit Update. Uh. Bro, the PM doesn't count as an action unless it's Rushu's PM so it doesn't matter in this context. Because PMs are not actions, only Rushu is affected by actions submission potentially at endgame. (Hint Rushu, if you are in fact a Villager, you know what you should be doing at Night!) Declining to ascribe a read to Archer on this basis. Rules confusion is NAI for Archer. I'm not sure it's panic, but I could see it coming from E!Sart as a decisive early cycle 'head them off' thing, instead of a late Turn shift that could be regarded as more suspicious. But again, I could be tunnelling, so. I think where I'm coming from is - you raise LG92 as an instance of when E!Sart sounds more decisive, e.g. when defending a teammate. I'm asking if it's plausible that tonal slip happens when Sart is on defense mode, rather than panicked per se. Do agree that confidence could indicate purity of intention behind the vote, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Am curious why tbh - I think I've talked myself in the opposite direction...
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Yeah, what I just mean is that there are clear implications for Wiz's alignment off any view you have on TJ's, if only because Wiz emerges in a slice of players that TJ is interested in/focusing attention on, and currently is sus of, but in a watered down way, so I'm curious if you're thinking through what those are. Ever heard of "Moving off a bad train, clearly knew Ash was V"? Pulling from the sheet: Last most recent games recorded: LG88: V/V LG83: V/V LG79: V/V AG7: V/V MR44: V/V LG67: E!X / V!S MR42: V/V QF44: V!X / E!S If we include Steel's faction game (LG87), then Xino was I think in Stick's and JNV's faction and Sart was quasi-Elim. Their first game together was LG48 in which they were E/V (E!X / V!S). Sheet doesn't include games beyond MR61 but I don't recall Sart playing MR62, and they were V/E (V!X / E!S) in the LG Fifth and I ran. I wouldn't rule out Sart having a fixed impression of Xino off their early games together, though I will note I am not seeing that many E!X/V!S games in playhistory. But I'm also the guy who still thinks Sart is Evil so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'd say for anyone trying to reproduce what I did with the sheet - don't sign in, use a temp filter, and filter players for Sart, xino, then filter alignments for only G/E, and then check for games in which they occur together. Probably a faster way to do this but I can't Python this so ._. Edited to add: @_Stick_ Tbf I will give you this and that's that this is a very odd vote to make if Evil - if factually wrong, you end up being forced to retract, when E!Sart probably wants to camp. But it's also just as possible E!Sart didn't check and just confidently voted I guess. Point about confidence level taken though. If you bring up the LG92 comparison, then odds that sort of confidence emerges when trying to save E!Ash? I will admit this is probably one hell of a sea-tunnel rn but hey.
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TJ doesn't explicitly say it but he feels moderately committed to E!Wiz because his suspicion of Ash is based on the idea that there's effort meant to save E!Ash, and that effort's located in <Wiz, Sart.> He does flag earlier he's suspicious of both Wiz and Sart for the Xino vote but generally favours Sart. If you have TJ/Sart E/E credences, then it feels like this should probably impact your views on Wiz. For Sart, it's a meta point for me, which is that whenever I think Sart is making sense, whether or not I think he's factually wrong, he tends to be Evil. I have never played a single game V/V with Sart when I haven't seriously questioned if we're seeing/playing the same game after reading his posts, e.g. LG82 (E!Sart), LG83, LG84, AG8 (...sorry Heron) (V!Sart). I can't really try to convince people with this so I'm not bothering, but it's not a read I'm likely to shift at this current juncture of the game. (Obviously with more evidence...) Edited to add: @_Stick_ Question for you, I'm going to check but it'd be easier if you have a recollection. You flagged something similar about Xino's mention of borking the last votecount. How often has Sart played with E!Xino/when have they last been V/E or even E/E? Edited to add 2: I'd note/flag: - @Ashbringer is lurking substantively but cites being busy. I guess when push comes to shove, I'm willing to give that a chance, though it doesn't change the fact I have a slightly read at the moment. - @Telrao is lurking. Not incompatible with E play from last game, and feel that more pressure should elicit clarity about alignment. - @Archer is currently rather marginal which rings alarm bells for me. Leaning but will note that Archer did in fact have something similar going on in LG91 in which he was V.
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That was fast and inconclusive. I've tended to associate E!Wiz with more structured if brief analyses in the past and don't feel there's enough data here for me to feel confident on ascribing a read (as indicated by the fact I sort of favour giving him a Pukamon instead for the vote switch.) He also did fall a tad away from structure in the Creston game, so there's that as well. I kind of want to lean but don't feel there's enough evidential basis for it. I'll say maybe chunk into for now on my part, from sheer force of indecision. I award myself a pure Gomamon gif to help with the psychological damage.
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Hmm. Ok. So on this view, E!Wiz distancepokevotes E!Ash, and then: V!Xino stacks on, which is bad. Instead of going onto TKN, Wiz chooses to open a new train, Xino. Honestly, I am tempted to give Wiz a quarter for the vote. Maybe downgrade to a weak . In the E!Wiz world, it's reactionary but reasonable, as it's early in the cycle and he'd prefer to not appear to be stacking a sudden CW. But that Xino vote also does have an obvious potential Village perspective IMO - that Xino was sheeping this early and inflating the Ash train. I found it suspicious, and Archer and Stick both made note of it. So I think it's reasonable and it looks a bit good for Wiz to have reacted to it that way. The changes after that I can see are Sart joining Wiz on Xino, and Stick going for Wiz. I feel it's a bit weird for E!Sart to join E!Wiz on V!Xino specifically, since the CW will look sus afterwards in vote analysis, and it's young in the cycle. So I'm not sure I'm committed to Sart-Wiz E/E. At the same time I feel that Sart is sus and my suspicions of Wiz boil down to one meta point about him, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I still don't like how Ash has been playing up to this juncture though, so am torn between whether I'd want to swap to Sart or stay on Ash. Since TJ has effectively added another Ash vote, I guess I feel alright pursuing my suspicion of Sart. If so, does this affect your views on Wiz? I'm getting mixed messages from this guy atm. I just think TJ's vote feels kind of gerrymandered, in the "I suspect Sart but ACTUALLY Ash" way. Like there's a conclusion he has to reach but he also has to drop the obligatory suspicion of Sart en route. Tbh I feel like I should just vote Marching Fish Buddy already... SIGH Y'all gonna make me re-read Creston to work out Wiz aren't you Hold my Gomamon.
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I'd wondered if they were both Elims who didn't want to get caught on the same train, hence Wiz jumping off as Xino jumped on, but I'm persuaded by Araris pointing out that if Xino is exploding here, then it's unlikely Wiz is also Evil. My suspicions of Xino boil down to that fourth stacked vote tbh. I don't really get this? I share the suspicion of Sart, though. I agree with a 0.5 on Stick but don't feel the doc issue is AI as Stick and I worked on the Diagram together in the LG90 dead doc so I think it's reasonable she would remember it, and wouldn't consider it high-effort solving. It's more coming up as a response to Sart anyway than as grounds for suspicion, and in this context, Sart is sussing Xino for activity as a deviation from baseline so it's relevant. Edited to add: Vote-state when TJ voted. It looks potentially defensive of Xino, which is reasonable given TJ's views, but the Ash vote feels a bit gerrymandered in terms of his reasoning for it (bolded above.) Awarding a
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As I recall, he was ok on activity, but a bit sheepy and petered out into mid-game which is when we pushed for him. Helped that Aman was strongly defending the CW - Nerdy, I think?
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Sign-up sheet here, check last tab.
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The Diagram is here: The text analysis on which the basis of the post was done can be found here, in LG90. I'd note I was a Villager that game so I had a vested interest in getting Xino right. I'd also note that we mislynched Xino for this in QF64. My current take is people forget that there is nuance to the diagram, which is that even E!Xino doesn't start out inactive - he has an activity drop over time. I like the look of his engagement currently but am more wary of the fourth stacked vote - that brings to mind LG91 C1 to me, where he did the same thing. Current Reads/Thoughts: I am ignoring gradation here because I don't think it fundamentally matters today. It's just about who I'm willing to vote for and who I'm not. : Kas I award myself a Digivolution just because I don't want to forget to Digivolve anything this game! : Alpha, Stick : TJ, Araris Marching Fishes! JNV, TJ, Araris i.e. people I'm not down to vote today. : Xino, TKN, Sart, Wiz, Archer, Ash, Devo, Telrao Edited to add: Current thoughts on the roles - we know the roles are unique, which makes me lean: Rsyn: Lopen: Huio: Cord: Rushu: My anchor for this analysis is actually Cord as Cord has a kill every Night. At fourteen players, that's kind of rough giving it to an Elim team. I could sort of see a team of two line-up, with E!Cord and V!Lopen and V!Rsyn and V!Huio but that seems sort of harsh still, and results in an effective 3KP per cycle. So I don't have strong credences here. Suppose then that Cord is Village. Huio being Village is more likely - it gives the Village some protection as Cord is more likely to miskill (unless channelling the spirit of Alv), and a bit of protection from the Elim kill. E!Huio, V!Lopen is a downgrade for the VIllage as it requires Lopen to block well. On the Elim side, Rsyn and Lopen are good candidates, either to find and eliminate Cord, or to just shut Cord down if need be. I've no basis for E!Rushu whatsoever except that E!Tineye tends to be a great Village nerf. One could argue Rushu could be an E nerf too because at endgame, actions analysis essentially indicates if Rushu is Evil. I don't disagree substantively with this.
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I should note that unless you are using someone's pass, this needs to be a Sanderson game. Non-Sandersons are every five in the category, e.g. QF/LG/MR. I'd offer, but I've committed my pass to another player.
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I don't really agree with this take - my vote was my first vote of the cycle, and as of Stick's post, it was barely three hours after the game started. Still forty-five hours more to go. I don't think an Elim feels like any sort of chill needs to be explained at that point in the cycle, especially when I've never been known to have a stable vote. I...Actually the more I come back to it, the more I am currently inclined to have Stick at 0.5 . Not very confident of this but feels like there's a bit too much perspectival confidence for me to want to E!read this. (Wow I have managed to issue Stick all three Digimon reads over four pages, go me!) Fair point, under the explosion hypothesis. Revising that thought. I don't disagree but was hoping something from your knowledge of E!Wiz's play was grounding this, in case there was something I was missing out on due to the last MR I refuse to go back and read that Creston game because life is too short to read things that stress you out or make you feel unhappiness.
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Praise the Ja! ? ? Wiz/Xino E/E? I say this but I still don't want to move from Ash - it's a very early vote explosion so I'm minded to be wary both of Xino's DGAF stack (we haven't even reached rollovet yet, and this does push me a bit back towards the E!Xino we saw in LG91) and Wiz's bailing. I'm not really seeing V!Ash yet. Agree there are extenuating factors, but Ash is usually readable, and IDK if I'm in a 'vote whoever I don't think is readable later on' mood this game. We'll see I guess.
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This is me, playing the drinking game where I take a drink every single time someone decides that it's okay to keep on posting in the thread despite not being signed up for the game. Seriously guys. You're taking up postcount and it's things we have to ignore later. Please relocate to the spec doc. Actual game-related talk: @The Wandering Wizard: Why Xino?
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Stick Ash
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I did, and it was less convoluted I think. It was just based off a comparison to your usual Village playstyle. I'll also agree the fact I'm conflicted as to what to make of it is probably indicative that I don't think it's necessarily Evil but it did stick out to me Edited to add: @_Stick_ Like, yeah it's from p2, but presumably the fact you okayed it before making the p2 comment since you didn't @ it p1 indicates that you were cool with it before, no? I just feel "this is probably bait" is weird. And am puzzling aloud why it jumps out to me/why I think it's weird. There's something to be said about the confidence that displays, I suppose, since an Elim tends to immediately read this more as a gut sus kind of thing, so on further reflection maybe I should treat this as more V!indicative. ...Yeaaaah let's go with an award of three Shakomons!
