Kasimir

Busy with some personal projects and taking a break from SE at the moment but am willing to provisionally pinch-hit depending on how things are when I'm tapped.

SE always starts with just one more :eyes: Just like tea Concern level: Two Alphamons!

On a scale of 'run away because I am a tiny?' to 'burn the sick and twisted in HEAVEN'S PURIFYING FLAME!', I award this five Thanks for running the game, Mat I had fun Digimon spamming and might return Digimon reads sometime, though maybe not so aquatic themed I still feel if JNV had been Evil this would 100% be a hardcounter team My one contribution to this game: refusing to tell anyone who Cord was and preferring to die with that info

Apologies for double but it's been some time and I don't want my mobile to screw the post up. Don't think I can get back to PC before rollover. Going over the player list: <Ash, Alpha, Telrao, Araris, TJ, Wiz, JNV, TKN, Elan, Kas> Removing myself. I'm Vikemon! Remove Alpha. Votes are ??? but posts have a good, engaged tone to them for C1 and a casualness I don't expect from an Elim. Also Stick's point on the team going nuts. I don't think an Alpha team kills Stick, who was defending Alpha. <Ash, Telrao, Araris, TJ, Wiz, JNV, TKN, Elan> Remove Wiz. Last votes D1 feel like they are more likely to emerge from a Village perspective. Alpha is LHF. Push is positive. Remove Telrao. Confusion posts read genuine. Same point on LHF Alpha push. <Ash, Araris, TJ, JNV, TKN, Elan> Remove TJ. TJ's catch up post felt like it came from a Village perspective and willingness to go for Alpha CW a potentially good look, dampened by fact it was close to EoD. Still feel tortured post voting for Ash is good, especially in light of V!Xino. No real incentive for E!TJ there. A bit more proactive than I remember LG83 E! TJ. <Ash, Araris, JNV, TKN, Elan> Asterisk Ash, Araris and JNV. JNV's dgaf is a bit closer to their Village play. Agree with Stick on Araris's thread post, felt very natural and stream of consciousness which is a good look. Minus half a Gomamon because Araris is more than capable of doing that. Not sure how I feel about Araris's votes. Difficulty of IDing partner makes me lean V on Ash. Ash not really displaying engagement or V playstyle makes me doubt. Probably have my PoE in these five. More willing to rule out JNV I guess. Potentially Ash, depending.

Tbf I still can't really ID a save Ash movement from the votes which is why I am leaning to V!Ash. But Ash isn't really playing in V!Ash either so IDK anything about this game anymore except that I'm Vikemon :eyes:

Path to Victory. Hmm, alright. The problem I feel is that flipping Ash to figure Cord out is pretty risky. The downside is that if V!Ash, then we do have a problem since Ash can functionally control E!Cord. Though even then, it's very give-or-take: still need to ID the right Elim, even find Cord in the first place, and can't double-target.

Yeah, but isn't D4 lylo actually pretty fast for a PtV? Edited to add: I mean the issue in that world is if Cord dies, that team is dead screwed. Volatility is real. It's the problem with building a distro that requires that role.

Ok, but how do you work with the KP issue? That's sort of what I come back to. As you point out, you have low odds of stopping an Elim kill at the start, and E!CS is two kills. Similar issues with Huio aiming. I do agree Archer over you is a Choice - despite my suspicions of Archer, you were probably a more appropriate vigkill target unless Cord was stopped by role considerations. Archer is not a player I would heroshoot easily. I'd also add despite my confusion between Araris and TJ right now, I wouldn't heroshoot them either, as they can be very helpful if . Indeed, I am extremely difficult to read especially since we just saw E!Kas in MR62 Edited to add: Sure, Mat mentioned he'd be willing to give the Knife to an Elim in QF63 but that was with a bigger player count and the Knife was a oneshot that had a chance of backfiring.

1. Unlikely for Cord to be Evil. That gives the Elims 2KP each Night which is hella strong. Single protect isn't enough to balance, and roleblock is dicey. Most distros with Evil!Cord-type roles tend to go for at least two v!Huio-type roles and multiple players with extra lives, cf. AG8. 2. Likely/possibly E!Huio but not sure. 3. win at parity. This means that if the number of = number of in this game at any Turn, automatically loses. For a game with 14 players, assuming no roles, we are looking at between 3 - 4 . Some GMs use the 1/4 rule, others use the square root rule. This forum prefers 1/4 but has used square root before. My current view is that there are likely 3 but some of it does depend on distro. E.g. say that Huio and Cord and Lopen are all (IDK how likely this is.) In that world, more likely to see 4 because the team needs extra padding. Edited to add: Sorry, to be clear - because of the win condition, if up to more than half of us are Evil, we would have already lost and seen an Aftermath instead of N2. It would also be a very unbalanced game.

I didn't scan you. You claiming Lopen under lethal pressure basically would've screamed Evil to the real Lopen and attracted a counterclaim, and it's a reasonable price to pay for a more or less confirmed Elim flip + My theory is that Cord is more or less - not impossible but I think it's very hard to balance E!Cord even with V!Huio and V!Lopen so that's where I'm at now. My view is that my job is to find Cord and to ensure Cord is protected as much as I can arrange for it/manage it. It also knocks one player out of PoE for me which is nice. I scanned another player. You know my views on outing a player's scan unnecessarily Edited to add: Left that thought half-developed. Meant to add that in any world with V!Huio or an Elim who wants to pass as V!Huio, V!Lopen ccing an Elim who then gets flipped is basically the obvious protection target. Edited to add 2: It's interesting actually - later on I regretted not scanning you due to a crack theory that E!you claimed a teammate's role in order to try to avoid getting flipped D1. But then in that world, it has to be really obvious to E!you I didn't scan you, because you'd know me would obviously push for you to get killed D2 since there's only one main world in which you claim Lopen without being Lopen. Doesn't mean you can't be E!Lopen, but it's nice to get rid of that theory

Lazy to source but will try to offer a summary of events that's as untainted by my reads as possible. Flips are marked. D1: Persistent Ash train that sat for most of the cycle, initiated by Wiz as a poke vote. Slightly before/around midpoint, we had an Ash/Xino CW. Xino CW was also started by Wiz, who switched from Ash. Decent to high volatility through the cycle, with vote switches from myself, Stick, TJ, Wiz, Telrao, Archer, and Alpha. FWIW I'm Vikemon. Ash claims Lopen. There was no counterclaim and the role is unique. Endgame situation: train dilution occurs. We go from an Ash/Araris/Sart train situation at 3/2/2 to Ash/Araris/Sart/TJ at 3/2/2/2 because Araris moves from a Telrao sidetrain (had maximum two voters) to TJ at about under an hour to EoD. At four minutes to EoD, Wiz switches his vote from Ash to Alpha, creating a five-way tie between Ash/Araris/Sart/TJ/Alpha. Sart is keelhauled! Summary post of D1 voting can be found here, if you want to accompany your readthrough with counts. (Don't have to look at my analysis when catching up.) N1: Archer acquires suspicion. Some distro discussion about what sort of world we are ending up with if Ash is Village, i.e. V!Lopen. General thought is maybe E!Rushu + E!Rysn + Regular. More player comments but I don't really want to summarise them here, and N1 is short. Archer and Stick flip. Stick was likely the NK, and Archer the Cord kill. D2: In contrast to D1, extremely tepid cycle with lots of vote complacency. Only three players changed their votes, and two of them did so in self-pres: TJ and Xino. I changed my vote as well from Araris to Xino. Main trains were: Alpha/TJ/Xino - no real appetite for Ash. Under vote pressure, TJ claims Rushu. There was no counterclaim and the role is unique. I claim Rysn for Rysons. There was no counterclaim and the role is unique. In retrospect, this is a very vote-centric summary but wcyd, I'm the votes guy >>

Alright. Time to do the colouring: D2: Tepid voting likely indicative of low investment. Likely 8/3 at that point, so Elim presence in voting could wind up being quite significant. The interesting thing is, Xino picked up as a cw at slightly about eighteen hours ago, or past Rollovet, with Ash adding an extra vote an hour later. At that time, the votestate was as follows: TKN shows up but continues to do nothing. FWIW, if you think both TJ and Alpha are Village, then that's probably some Elim dgaf energy there. It's this vote-state that JNV and Ash respond to, which is kind of interesting as it's de facto protective of both TJ and Alpha. But it's also functionally a tie. Maybe that's why the cycle felt so tepid - ties aren't too threatening, and voting on a side-train means not having to break the tie. D1: Going back to TJ's theory about Xino being the Village CW to Ash, our D1 main Xino voters were: <Wiz, Sart, Telrao, Alpha.> Wiz was the train-starter, but spent a decent time voting on and off Ash. It's hard to see Ash and Wiz paired, unless Wiz was into playing risky. It's sort of barely in his portfolio but also not - cf. MR61. The other two options are Telrao and Alpha. Issue with Alpha is he votes pretty much everywhere. That being said, there's a lot of thread lurking going on and little engagement beyond the early reads post, which does make me wonder. Noting that Telrao's and Wiz's votes have remained fairly consistently on Alpha - Wiz in particular has experienced a downtick in vote volatility. Which...does make me wonder about a Wiz-Ash team again, since that might explain the significant attitude difference.

My problem with Ash/Araris is just that unnecessary mutual poke at the start, which kept Ash as a lead train for a significant period, and then also, which brought Araris into contention during the tie. All easily avoided considering train volatility if Ash had just unvoted and self-pressed. Alpha I can sort of see but feel it'd need a quieter team for that - not necessarily sure an Araris/Ash team works with E!Alpha. E!Xino tends to taper out as he goes along - made multiple posts as well in C1 of LG91 before losing momentum. Too soon to call IMO. I liked the posts but the Wiz vote feels more like CW shopping than actual attempt to find an Elim. Edited to add: @|TJ| You have five minutes to convince me. I'm not a fan of the tepid voting, which might be indicative something is wrong with our current trains.

Low key want to . Feels like E!TJ would've been yelled at by his team in doc to just show up and self-pres - more or less what Xino did. Not saying it's necessarily Evil to self-pres but that I expect E!TJ to be more caught up, cf. E!Mat's short caps segments in LG92 to Steel and Tani. But also, gws bhai. Stray thought I had about Ash - Ash does stand an increased chance, if , of being able to stop the Elim kill when numbers get low, which means that there's probably vested interest in making us keelhaul Ash if Ash is . Of course, if Ash is , then that's the play they'd be running with to explain Ash's survival. Cord if throws a spanner into the works since Cord could theoretically just execute Ash. Not really sure if the team would factor that in, since execute the CW is a known tactic, and they couldn't hope to defend against it except/unless Huio is Not a fan of the complacency this cycle - low temperature might suggest that we're quite far off. Vote stability was fairly high until I proposed Xino, at which point we just have two non-voters vote Xino, and Xino self-pressing. I'm not willing to consider an E!Alpha world unless TKN and some other lower activity player flips Evil, in which case I think Stick's conditional is met and E!Alpha should be back on the table. I guess I could see E!Wiz making some last minute vote shifts, cf. his Xino plan in MR61, but I also feel he wouldn't do that if Evil with Ash. IDRK. I like Stick's point about Araris's post, which felt rather natural, but I go back and look at Araris's gameview and votes and I start to feel concern about how highly I can V!read him. Probably somewhere in for now. I feel like I'm downgrading everyone to aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa I am somewhat okay with JNV for now. Just feel that E!JNV tends to show up more and make more elaborate posts. Functionally, Xino is a for me for the reasons outlined. Ash is somewhere between and . I go to and fro a lot, which is where I wish there was more to go on. Could maybe see Telrao on an Araris team but maybe it's extreme distancing, IDK. Stand by read of TKN as fitting on pretty much any team. No strong read of Devo and doesn't look like I'll get the chance to formulate one. I think in this case it boils down to how willing I am to believe that Xino is Evil. With the votes being this divided, I could see a riskier team being willing to commit to just having Xino self-pres and going for a tie. But at the same time, Everyone's already engaged. Devo voted on a side-train. If TJ/Xino are V/V, then likely E!candidates, probably. Araris definitely feels committed to flipping anyone but Xino, which is why I was theorising an Araris/Xino/TJ team but Araris and TJ don't fit well on a team together. TKN is known to allow bad (for team) votes to pass so I wouldn't consider that particularly exculpatory. If they're V/E, I don't bloody understand this game >> If they're E/E, I feel like the last teammate is probably on - ffs. I kind of want to say the last teammate is probably on TJ because ex hypothesi that's a bus, but again it's back to that Araris/xino/TJ team that feels attractive but is marginally incoherent. So...on xino train? IDEK. That's between Ash and JNV then. Lean Ash, but does Ash even make sense in the TJ/xino/Ash team? Hell no. So... no then?

Really wish TJ would get the f on because it's bloody hard to make a good call by keelhauling in absentia. Willingness to self-pres on TJ instead of Alpha a decent look, damaged by unwillingness to engage with thread and lack of interest in solving. Survival at all costs is pointless if you aren't remotely interested in helping your team.

Take care! I'm...not prima facie opposed to the Araris or TJ trains but they're not my first choice. As I've argued, I don't think either of them make a compelling team with E!Ash, but could see TJ teamed with Xino (hard to form a coherent team there otherwise), and could see Araris teamed with Xino or potentially with someone in the TKN ballpark. I'm not really picking up much of a coherent team. 1. @The Wandering Wizard - Why Alpha? At this point, who's your top three suspects? 2. @Devotary of Spontaneity - If you lean Village on Alpha, then do you have a compromise candidate or a stronger case for E!Araris? I can be persuaded to swap to Araris. I note that while Xino is in the lead right now, Alpha stands a decent chance of getting keelhauled. (Ignore if you can't.) 3. @|TJ| - I know you're busy with work, but am starting to have serious doubts about your alignment and would like to hear from you. Edited to add: 4. @Ashbringer - Any chance you could work some of that NKA magic or just anything more to go on?

Few counterpoints: -Am wary of default lynch the CW. If player is readable, then is default playing into Elim hands. Don't disagree Ash isn't straightforwardly readable as Village at this point though. -Unclear why TJ or Ash resolves D1. Logical choice is between Ash and Xino given nonsensical protectiveness of Xino and your own commitments to the purity of the Xino train: Sart, Wiz, Alpha. Bracketing Telrao for now. Villagers not necessarily right but high Village CW lends some credence to idea this might be where Elim is hiding. -Unclear why E!Xino points to E!Ash. E!xino had no reason to keep vote parked on E!Ash. Xino's claim about baiting defenders backing his vote on Wiz would have licensed an unvote, removing E!Ash from danger.

? Edited to add: Disclaimer/caveat: I admit I am known to go 'easy' on players I genuinely enjoy playing with like Araris/TJ. In LG83, despite order of evidence pointing to flipping Araris first, then Bip, I insisted on flipping Bip then Araris. I can't rule out that I'm doing the same thing here, psychologically. I am definitely reluctant to flip TJ. My reasoning is as follows: (1) TJ's Ash vote over Sart case doesn't make sense for E!TJ unless E!TJ is protecting E!Xino. Therefore, if Xino flips E, then that's damning for TJ. On top of that, TJ slipped from gut suspicion of Xino to thinking Xino is the Village CW to Ash. I feel like a reasonable response to Xino's fourth vote is actually to be a little more suspicious beyond just gut sus? TJ's shifts in views here: (2) think there's other reason to suspect Xino, with regard to Xino's E!Wiz case and the stable vote. The fact Xino proposed a countertrain that's protective of TJ is indicative of a connection the other way as well IMO. (What players say is one thing. What they do is another. A player's votes reflect their priorities IMO.) (3) It is possible for Xino to be Evil on a team that doesn't include TJ. (I can sort of see Xino and Araris, for instance, without necessarily TJ as a third member. Araris slips from sus of Xino (leaving in the possibility vote explosion is going on) to mild V on Xino and I think that's worth looking at.) I think it's harder for TJ to be Evil on a team that doesn't include Xino. Note: Speaking of Araris's vote explosion post, I agree with Stick it's a good look for Araris. So that gets a weak and a shrug from me. Someone @ me if I'm being dishonest with myself here - this is important because of LG83 and I need to not be voting because I'm distorting evidential priority to save TJ. But that's where I'm at. I think the case for E!TJ only really makes sense in light of E!Xino. And there's reason to think Xino is so evidential priority suggests Xino -> TJ. I think one could argue that TJ was trying to frame Xino. But I keep going back to this: Why go for Ash here? There's literally no reason to. And yet he tortures the post into going for Ash. You could argue train explosion but remember, Wiz just hopped off Ash. There is no need to try to re-stack the Ash train to get people to go off E!Ash - that's nonsensical for E!TJ. If he wanted to protect Ash, there's Xino, or the very natural Sart vote he flags. But instead, he votes Ash. Why? IMO, only two possibilities here, given the rest of TJ's behaviour. (A) V!TJ (B) TJ/Xino E/E - E!TJ defensive of E!Xino.

Now that I've had some sleep, to clarify what I'm getting at: The issue IMO is that there was a lot of movement, sure, but it was repeat movement. People who stayed on Ash: <Xino, Araris, Alpha> (They may have moved off later, but there's some vote stability.) People who moved on and off Ash: <TJ, me, Wiz> These people voted Ash, unvoted Ash, and then revoted Ash at some point. Vote stability isn't a smoking gun but I feel that it's an indicator of something going on - people keep pointing to the fact there's a lot of volatility and CWs being offered. There's two main diagnoses I can see for the C1 vote patterns: 1. E!Ash, and people were looking for side-trains to splinter the vote. Ok. But then who? Our main side-trains appear to be started by: Sart (TJ), Stick (TKN, but too many), Archer (Telrao, and then Sart), me (too many), Telrao (me, stacked up on Xino, then went Alpha), Alpha (everywhere, then Archer), Araris (+1 Telrao, TJ), TKN (Stick.) Someone @ me if there's a name I missed but that's my analysis. Devo +1ed the Araris train FWIW, as Ash flagged. The thing is I'm starting to agree with Devo's analysis so...w00ts for my Devo read IDFK what's going on anymore. The problem is that it's hard trying to find a viable partner for Ash among trainstarters. Sart, Stick, Archer flipped so that's predominantly . I'm Vikemon! Alpha could theoretically be a partner due to how chaotically Alpha was switching votes, which smells of train fishing, but as with Telrao (more weakly), some of Alpha's posts do read more Village, and it's hard to see an Elim team being down with that much chaosplay. Stick makes the same argument here: IDK. I disagreed with her then but I have to admit it's hard to make a coherent case as well. Archer backs up this argument as well: Again, I don't disagree. I dislike chaosplay in that I think chaosplayers tend to have to walk a line between having fun and alienating their own team. From a Village perspective, chaosplay makes a player hard to read and it makes it hard for me to do my job. So there's that. But all of that being said, I think that's a decent set of points I'm willing to rule out Alpha as a prospective partner for now. The same point is milder for Telrao: Telrao votes on the Xino CW at a point when Ash is dominant, and also can appear to be trainfishing, but I'm not sure how passive even busy!E!Ash goes with Telrao as a teammate. Almost certainly requires a third stabilising teammate, but then who? Most of my candidates for those are dead, and I don't know if I think an Araris/Ash team works. More on that later. So soft ruleout for Telrao, but not a hard case against E!Telrao. The fact that Telrao expresses suspicions of Xino and Alpha in terms of inactivity and volatility makes me sort of positive? Telrao does park that vote (a negative, especially given lack of responsiveness to Alpha's explanation), but this is a novel (and somewhat less optimal, and in Xino's case, untrue) ground of suspicion makes me think E!Telrao would've gotten better support or just sheeped. NOT SURE, WOULD LIKE OPINIONS ON THIS. AND BASICALLY EVERYTHING. TKN doesn't feel like a good partner in this world. Stable vote on Stick, which was just not going to take off as a CW. It's possible TKN overestimated his case, but I feel like TKN could've gone for a more realistic CW. Devo voting for Araris and choosing not to stack onto TJ or Wiz with that heating up is a Take. You could argue she was trying a new CW, but Araris hadn't really taken? Similar argument to TKN alongside the fact she is choosing to ignore the TJ/Wiz fracas where she could've had a more viable CW to save Ash. It's true E!Devo buses quite a bit but IDK. I also feel E!Devo would've stepped in earlier, but don't feel as strongly about this. Note that Devo does defend Ash by highlighting that the Ash arguments don't make much sense. But at the end of all these considerations: then who is Ash's partner? Sure, the team is likely a team of three, but if we can't even really ID a viable partner, there's a problem here. I don't feel JNV is a good take because E!JNV wouldn't have peaced out if Ash came under pressure. 2. V!Ash, and the Elims were hiding in stable votes. This line of thought takes as the starting point that a large amount of heat/movement was still generated by the <Stick, Archer, Kas, Alpha, Wiz> set, with a Telrao/TJ side, which - if you think Alpha is Village as I currently do, just causes massive coherence problems with this picture. As I've been saying repeatedly, I think the main problem with the E!TJ arguments is that there's no real reason for TJ not to go onto Sart and make a weird probability argument about Ash. It's early in the cycle, it attracts attention, and it's such an unusual position to take. There's no particular incentive for TJ to want to kill Ash unless he's partnered with Xino. There's a weak argument against a TJ/Xino E/E team and that has to do with the fact that TJ mentioned a gut suspicion of Xino early on but didn't follow it by voting. I do feel it could be a cheap distancing vote, so am surprised TJ didn't make it, but that isn't a strong point against the viability of E!TJ, especially since TJ didn't follow up and subsequently defended Xino against both Ash and Sart, and adopted a 'Xino is the CW to Ash' view which...can be weird. I do think that if TJ is Evil, it's most likely with Xino. V!Ash makes E!Wiz seem a bit weird. Wiz hopping off Ash, in this world, is explained by the fact Wiz knows it's a bad train, and doesn't want to incriminate himself...but then he also goes back to the Ash train later on! We could say E!Wiz saw the opportunity presented by V!Xino, but then he didn't bother to clarify it! He expresses his reason for voting Xino as 'gut and sheeping' but doesn't bother to really push the knife home, which IMO is just odd. It's true you can't expect optimal Elim play in analysis but I do feel that E!Wiz realising V!Xino is a good scapegoat and then not really bothering to tear Xino a new one doesn't really seem coherent. (You'd also expect E!Wiz to vote Alpha instead - why not? Reacting to Alpha but voting Ash is weird and gets him sus for it. In V!Ash world, E!Wiz is making a vote he knows will get him sus when Ash flips...and then he retracts it anyway. This is just messy play for E!Wiz that doesn't seem to make sense with Wiz's motivations. I don't think it's very plausible. In stable vote world, we'd be looking in JNV, TKN, Araris, Telrao, Xino, Devo as potential partners. I'll handle Xino and Devo last for reasons that will be clear in a bit. JNV - Basically, I expect E!JNV to park a poke vote. TKN - Candidate here. TKN does make a comment on Sart, for which he gets some credit, but has done nothing that can exclude him from PoE, and focus on personal image and not the main discussion skews closer to E!TKN in play. Araris - Accept he had RL but doesn't change the vote stability issue. It does make his last minute call for votes on TJ look weird - I could see an Araris/TJ team though I think it's slightly unlikely and probably wouldn't mind being converted to such a team because BROs before alignment but whatever I've got a job here and that's to bring them down if they be Evil. But there are factors to consider, like that late vote solicitation from Araris - vote solicitation is always risky and demonstrates confidence. Fundamentally: I don't feel super alright clearing Araris but I like his posts. I have a history of wanting Araris to be Village and being very generous in reading him, so don't feel ok removing him from PoE and think there's a moderate possibility he works as Evil in this world. (Araris/Xino/TJ anyone?) Part of this is also back to Archer's reasoning - I agree that it's likely that at most one of the trains in the five-way on D1 is Evil. Too many and we should have seen more overt action. If I squint, maybe two. This means: <Ash, Araris, Alpha, TJ, Sart.> In this world, we are assuming that Ash is Village. Alpha is a decent Village candidate. Which means at most both Araris/TJ are Evil, or one of the two. Between the two, I currently feel I have more reason to V!read TJ barring a TJ/Xino team, which brings me to an E!Araris world as a possibility. Telrao - Another candidate consistent with V!Ash. But see my comments on Telrao and suspicions. Not sure how much I believe in E!Telrao but it's possible. Devo - Question of where Devo's subsequent V!Ash certainty comes from, and Devo doubling a vote up on Araris has the dgaf energy an Elim would on D1. Does imply V!Araris. Devo's D1 post does assume E!Ash, it's worth noting. It feels a bit artificially restricted, which makes me wonder yet again about a Devo/Ash team but that's properly in the section upstairs. Either way, Devo fits in both worlds IMO. Xino - The kicker here is I can see a V/E world for V!Ash / E!Xino, and a V/V world. In an E!Xino world, it explains the stability of the Ash train, which is a place I point to the fact that TJ/Araris/Xino can be viable, though it requires all of them to have CWed on Ash, which is...extreme. It also explains Xino's subsequent vote stability - Xino parks that vote on Araris, indicates a potential Wiz vote, and checks out for good. The problem is that being baity doesn't functionally matter if you're not doing the analytical work subsequently. In a V/V world, we're looking at off-train stable votes, in which case, the entire section above. FWIW, I don't think E!TJ works except with E!Xino. The main voters on Xino were <Wiz, Sart, Telrao, Alpha>. Two things to be said here: (A) If you're leaning V on Alpha and Wiz as I currently am, then there's decent purity on a Xino train, and the Xino trainstarter is Village, which just makes me think that the Xino train is a candidate for having found an Elim D1. (B) I think Xino's reasoning on Wiz is just weird - Wiz being Evil by that line of reasoning is equally possible, but Xino is choosing to solely focus on the vote switch off Xino which happened even before Rollovet and to disregard that any Villager could also question why the f Xino chose to +4 a vote on Ash that early. That does feel like Xino trying to construct a train on purpose rather than actually find an Elim. It could be a struggling Villager, but given that Xino is raising Wiz as a TJ CW, I am inclined to go back to my E!TJ/E!Xino theory. @Ashbringer you asked. Stick has offered 3.: This is an E!Ash possibility. The Elims didn't want to compromise themselves (we can factor in an inactive team here) so just sort of didn't do much. I don't disagree this is a possibility but don't usually feel comfortable accepting this because this leads us into CC* territory for voting which tends to be exceptionally bad Village-wise. I'd rather we get evidence that this is going on, whether through post analysis or vote analysis, then hit #3 as compared to shooting CC off the bat. Oh and FWIW: Rysn isn't Evil. That distro is dead. I encourage Huio and Cord to stay silent. Y'all have roles that actually do things. But I don't really matter and thought it's worth clearing things up. Hi. I'm Vikemon Rysn. AMA The colours don't mean anything in terms of the blue/aqua highlights FWIW. I just want things to stand out and colour picker is hard.

Not in the game. I'm just bolding it because sometimes I want the names to jump out in a wall of text. Edited to add: Especially if it's a player I'm offering an opinion on or want to draw attention to!

To put it more clearly: it doesn't allow you to be excluded from PoE. Do you have current thoughts/suspicions? I didn't say the theory was about Araris

I mean we play the game how we want to, as long as it's fun for you, that's good. There's something to be said about having fun and helping your team - Village or otherwise - but still, if RPing it is more fun for you, you should. (This isn't to license complete chaosplay that makes players struggle to read you, but again, RPing is cool.) I mostly haven't been RPing because I signed up for this game on a Tress kick but am now on a Digimon kick so my head is no longer in nautical headspace but in Digimon headspace and that's making it hard to RP. That being said: I'm confused too, mostly throwing thoughts out to see if people can help me make sense of these things together I will admit there is a pragmatic case for Ash - knowing Ash's alignment helps us just figure out what's happening D1. That being said, I do lean Village on Ash for now but also sort of feel that there's enough doubt there I don't know I'd care to aggressively defend Ash. There's also something to be said about how we don't have to flip the CW just to figure out what's going on. I would like to think Araris is Village but I usually want him to be Village anyway so RIP.

Sigh. Let's redo the notes after all. Yes and no - you stand out as the most stable voter for a reason, in a cycle where people didn't just shift, but went to other trains. But. (1) You double up my vote before Rollovet. This is not a particularly serious threat. Nevertheless, Wiz moves off and votes you. This is either Elim opportunism or a Villager suspecting what looks like a vacuous fourth vote - I lean towards the latter because that vote was a gift, with no follow-up analysis. (2) Sure, we can call this protective of Ash - except Wiz then goes back to vote Ash one hour to EoD when he's not going to do anything else in terms of encouraging people off. (3) Stick responds to that by voting Wiz, but had negative gut of Wiz anyway. Stick flipped so this is a movement, and isn't a shift 'surrounding' Ash. This also isn't train dilution tactics for the same reason. (4) Telrao comes in and votes me. This is potential vote dilution, but I notice Telrao doesn't appear on your radar at all. (I do have reason to think Telrao Village but believe this should be flagged anyway.) (5) Sart doubles up the vote on you. Again, Sart flipped so this is a movement. This isn't making a CW in that sense. (7) TJ makes an incredibly gerrymandered vote and votes Ash. This isn't defensive of Ash, and in fact, is very hard to explain from E!TJ because E!TJ should just vote Sart and call it a day. There's no reason to go to Ash when there's a Sart train and a you train waiting regardless of Ash's alignment. (8) I shift off to Sart. Not really going to say more here. (9) Telrao swaps to Xino. Arguable that Telrao realised no one was biting on the attempted CW. But I'm usually not the best CW target anyway. This ties Ash and Xino. (10) Alpha then follows onto Xino. This is where I say Alpha has genuinely ??? vote moves. But he also later moves onto Ash so the proper read is that he actually just gives no chulls about Ash or Xino. The one (1) point in the cycle where Xino leads. (11) Archer sees that shift and votes Telrao instead for Reasons but he flipped so once again, this isn't train dilution; it's a movement. (12) I decide to hop back to Ash. Largely because I was somewhat reading Xino at that time and also to see if anyone wants to break it. Not really defensive of Ash. (13) Two hours later, Araris hops off onto Telrao. No questions asked from you, I notice, despite your contention that you made your move to generate analysis. This matters because Araris's vote protects Ash and keeps you in the lead. There are arguments that could be made that Araris could reasonably expect the Xino train to collapse due to Sart, but that's a separate kettle of fish. I also am not sure we can coherently team Araris and Ash due to Ash being willing to park his vote on Araris, and Araris's EoD indifference. (Archer also notes that he's not a good candidate to +1, which fair.) (14) Alpha hops off Xino and onto Telrao. Arguably, creating a three-way tie. You could argue this is defensive of Ash. But again, Alpha also happily votes Ash later so ??? (15) Archer goes to TKN. Recall that Archer is so this isn't really side-train creation/protecting Ash via train dilution. (16) Stick +1s the TKN vote. I am getting incredibly tired of saying this, but Stick is , therefore this isn't side-train creation or protective of Ash. (17) TKN retaliatory votes Stick. Arguably train dilution but TKN could just vote you or Telrao to protect Ash. In addition, Stick was not a realistic CW. However, this vote never budges. That's noteworthy in and of itself. (18) And yet again Alpha changes vote to Ash. Definitely not defensive of Ash. Ash returns to the lead. (19) Archer votes Sart. Again, is , therefore this isn't side-train creation or protective of Ash. (20) Telrao swaps off Xino to Alpha which is reasonable from a Village perspective. You can hypothesise that Telrao was fishing for an Ash-protective train, but again, that hasn't emerged in suspicion at all. (I also am not sure Alpha is the best side-train in that situation - Telrao shouldn't have moved, and have thoughts about how willing Ash would be to go Dingo with Telrao as his teammate.) (21) Sart moves to TJ. Sart is , therefore this is a vote movement. (22) Wiz abandons the dead train for TJ. TJ flags Wiz's reasoning here as sus. I don't disagree - vagueness and parroting are hallmarks of E!Wiz, at least cf. MR61. (23) TJ swaps to Wiz. You can argue it's defensive of Ash, but then why vote Ash in the first place? Remember: this is the guy who made a suspiciously-gerrymandered post saying "I suspect Sart more but will vote Ash." You could argue train explosion tactics, but he will later on leave his vote on Ash for EoD. That's rather dgaf. (24) Devo votes Araris. Noted unwillingness to vote TJ or Wiz - could've voted TJ to tie Ash off with TJ but did not. Slight good look for that. (25) I move to Wiz after Ash's claim. Four way tie. (26) Stick goes to Sart. I'm tired of cping. Soddit. Stick is , therefore this is a vote movement. Five way tie thanks to Stick. (27) TJ settles on Ash. His vote doesn't move and tie-breaks against Ash. Remember Ash isn't on for the rest of the cycle either, and TJ was pushing for a Wiz train. Hard to see a coherent TJ/Ash/Wiz team ehre. (28) Alpha moves from Ash to Archer. Nfc why. Potential train-shopping I guess. (29) Wiz dislikes Alpha's vote and takes it out on votes Ash instead of joining on Alpha. No real reason to go Ash - going Sart or TJ or Alpha was fine, and going Alpha given his post suspicious of Alpha would have attracted less scrutiny. TJ had said he was going to be away so there's no real hope of scaring anyone off and it's an hour to EoD. (30) I give up on life and vote Devo. (31) Araris tries for TJ takers. This feels a bit performative given that TJ has been on the table anyway since Sart - it's not like he's trying to bring in a new train. But soliciting votes on a Villager for whom you have no particular reason to sus (E!Araris's perspective) is a dangerous move. Potentially mitigated by the fact it's under an hour to EoD so the train is unlikely to take. (32) Wiz goes for a five way tie. Why Wiz, why. So my problem with the contention that there's a lot of vote movements is that it's strictly-speaking true and practically false: the extraordinary stability of the Ash train is pretty telling, in light of the fact Xino spent a decent chunk of time also being a lead train and that train dissolved! That makes me believe that the parked votes are more worthy of scrutiny than the ones that shifted. It doesn't help that the players who shifted the most are <Wiz, Alpha, Telrao, me, Stick, Archer> - and Stick and Archer flipped and I'm . I've flagged the problems with suggesting that Wiz and Alpha and Telrao are defensive of an Elim buddy here, though one can certainly pressure them more. If anything, it sounds like you've pre-flipped Ash without making a determination about whether the movements are organic or not. Edited to add: See partial reconstruction of notes. Every player who has ever voted on you D1 includes: <Xino, Araris, me, TJ, Wiz, Alpha.> There's a lot of hopping on and off and very little defending.

What shifting?

Yes. Why fourth that vote?