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Kasimir

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Everything posted by Kasimir

  1. Kasimir
    Oh yeah final thing before heading to bed: I am not sure I agree that a protection scenario is farfetched in that I think the Elims would naturally select for a teammate with Silver Bones, or Silver Dust. And given Broken Survivors and the insanity penalty, I don't think it's too weird they'd also try to select for one with Iron Will. It does require a bit of juggling but given the selection incentive, I feel the real question is how plausible it is that the Elims started off with Shade protection and Iron Will? And yeah, I don't think that's too beyond the pale. Edited to add: There's the Shade Expert world too which is not impossible...but feels a bit OP if I'm being honest.
  2. Kasimir
    Alv claimed the one on Steel, I claimed the one on Mat. Nothing left unaccounted for. Preparing for rest now so I'll pull substantiation when I'm awake and less sick, but my reference games were MR61 (V!Devo), LG80 (E!Devo), QF64 (V!Devo), QF62 (V!Devo.) Long story short it's mode of engagement - V!Devo IMO engages more freely with the thread, mentions suspicions, demonstrates interest in solving. I feel like most of Devo's interactions so far have been mech-centric, which is something I see more from E!Devo. She just doesn't really kind of want to do her own thing and solve when Village? I feel like most of her mention of suspicions came at prompting, rather than freely, and reactivity isn't a good look IMO when V!Devo is less reactive. I will note TKN is also straddling the reactivity border and it's worth recalling that E!TKN only really volunteered info when pressed, then faded into the background again, cf. QF64. I want to go back through the past cycle to see how much came freely and how much came when he was prompted or under pressure. E!TKN IMO does the bare minimum and the moment the pressure is off, drops it. Edited to add: Right sorry really should rest as mind is a bit muddled now - "She just doesn't really kind of want to do her own thing and solve when Village?" What I'm trying to convey here is that I see more interest in solving and free engagement but, importantly, engagement from V!Devo. I don't really feel that I'm seeing this here, and that brings to mind E!Devo instead. And as much as I regret to say this: I'm watching Aman yet again because I am still feeling some degree of lack of engagement or reactivity and I'm not very sure how I feel about it. It does feel a bit like the issue with TKN: he put up enough to allay suspicions and then stopped. I agree my standards are a bit skewed because I'm a hyperposter and Aman and I both need to develop healthier relationships to SE so maybe pinch of salt. But I feel detachment for Aman is more likely to emerge from an Elim perspective because like me, he has a slight (well major in my case) preference for Village play.
  3. Kasimir
    I know, I think the trauma of not knowing what happened drove me insane
  4. Kasimir
    Oh and while we wait - Devo I know my vote doesn't count but damnit let me exercise my civic duty >> Edited to add: Holding off on Mat as I think there are implications for his alignment that are fundamentally dependent on our picture of what went down. Edited to add 2: Reminder that while in two worlds, we have a player who targeted an Elim, we still need to vote, analyse, and keep up momentum while trusting players with Village-relevant information will come forward. My re-read nudges me more towards Devo in terms of low engagement involvement.
  5. Kasimir
    ...It makes me sign up for SE games and not sub out despite running a 39 degree fever and having COVID. Whee! Oh. Sorry you mean game insanity. Can't vote, can't take Day action, immune to insanity for two cycles thereafter unless I do something incredibly kayana like read a Spellbook. Warmmha says suffer not witches to- oh huh. Well the main gap in that strategy is that I don't even know if I was attacked as we're only told if it affects an intrinsic ability/item you have, so. Smh. People need to appreciate PMs more. Because I am neither a Thug nor do I have a protective item (this is significant because) - I am not told if I was attacked. So the options are, thusly: 1. Kas was protected by a Shade Expert. Shade Expert will be told they lost the ability. Kas knows nothing because he is secretly Jon Snow. Because Kas lacks Iron Will, Broken Survivors triggers and Kas goes insane. In this world, because the protection attacks the Elim making the kill, the Elim making the kill also must have had Silver Bones or Silver Dust/Shade Expert protection and Iron Will. Because no one else went insane. 2. The Elims attacked someone else. Sub-worlds to follow. Note that this covers two types of scenarios, where the Elims deliberately targeted that player or where the Elim was redirected. i. That player has a protective item and has Iron Will or has Silver Bones. In this world, the player knows they were attacked because they lost the item or Silver Bones. They should tell us in order to clarify this issue. They must have a protective item (Elder Sign Pendant or Pallid Mask) and Iron Will because they did not go insane - Broken Survivors didn't trigger. Or Silver Bones. ii. That player was protected by a Shade Expert. This is a variant of World 1 with the same analysis, but in my view, requires a number of factors to align. The player who was protected must have had Iron Will to avoid Broken Survivors. The Shade Expert's retaliatory protection should have also taken out the Elim making the kill, which entails that the Elim making the kill must also have has Silver Bones or Silver Dust/Shade Expert protection and Iron Will. Because no one else went insane. 3. The Elims were roleblocked. Probably the most straightforward world. I go insane because I'm incredibly unlucky, and the/a White Fox stops the kill. 4. The Elims withheld the kill. Devo was the one to mention this, probably because her team played kill denial before. As did Alv and your team, Archer. Unlikely but I don't want to completely exclude this as an option because this would upset Drake after our conversations about MO in LG83 I go insane because I'm incredibly unlucky.
  6. Kasimir
    Just to get my understanding of the rules clear: #2 implies that if I do not lose an ability, role, or item, e.g. as a regular, when I survive an attack due to external forces, I'm not told anything, correct? Mat gets told because if he survives via Silver Bones, he loses SB so he's informed of the loss, not the survival. (I'm highly confident this is the correct read since I was incredibly put out and flummoxed not to know why I went insane, or if I was attacked, but I'd like a direct clarification if my understanding is correct so we can stop going in circles about points that you've already previously clarified.)
  7. Kasimir
    FWIW, she clarified it stops Broken Survivors when I asked which is why I feel that in any deflection or protection world, the player who got hit must have had Iron Will and protection, or Silver Bones. Edited to add: Also agree with DeTess here - from what I can tell: -Elims likely have some kind of Shade protection. Cf. Elim dissatisfaction last game and the ah, spectacular PM reading skills of Araris. Very likely the Shade-protected Elim made the kill. Said Elim was also likely to have Iron Will. -In the world where someone protected me (or someone else), I think (this one I'd hesitate on, not fully sure), it's worth claiming. @Elandera, are Shade Experts told if they can no longer protect? (This would of course be the situation in which they successfully deflect the NK.) The trade-off is that the Shade Expert can't absorb a kill anymore, but I would at least lean Village on them because losing their Shade protection to WBG is a heavy sacrifice for the Elims to make. -If the Elims hit someone else (whether through a deflection or just choice), it's worth knowing, because you will likely have lost your extra life/protect item, so there's no real sense in keeping quiet for this one. Main combinations here are <Padding + Iron Will>, with Padding being one of <Pallid Mask, Elder Sign Pendant.> The alternative is Silver Bones. Both of these are expended. -If there are no survivors claiming, then the odds are just down to RB or redirect. Again, I lean RB for parsimony, but agree it could also be a redirect (in this case, Return to Sender, rather than a Deflection, due to the lack of a claimed survivor.) -So yeah, I think the target of a RB or redirect is a good lead that's worth following. Edited to add 2: I don't deny there's a world in which the kill was deliberately withheld but that's the MO of specific players, including (ironically), Devo, Alv et al. I also ascribe low probability to this world. Edited to add 3: Needless to say, but I will also come out and say it anyway, I do not have Iron Will. (Tbf if I had, probably would not have gone insane either way, meaning in the world where I was attacked and protected, I'd never have known o_O) Although I am Seraphimon, I am also a cute and weak-willed Patamon at heart <3 Back to the solving grind, I need to re-read the thread but that's after some sleep/recovery. Edited to add 4: FWIW, there's probably a sub-world in which one of < @|TJ|, @The Last Fæ > got hit, was meant to be a low profile kill, but then they're here so rarely we never heard about it. If it's one of the two of you, it'd be good to know. It'd also likely implicate Devo, which...is a possibility I'm re-examining after today's thread. Edited to add 5: Sorry, to clarify: TJ, I know you're short on time so this isn't an ask for analysis though that'd be great. This is a straight-up "can you please confirm if you were hit by a kill" question that doesn't require you to backread the entire thread.
  8. Kasimir
    In summation, it seems to me that if we postulate I was protected or that the kill was deflected one way or another, we have to postulate that the kill hit someone with <Iron Will and a protective item/protection> or Silver Bones. This accounts for the missing insanity. Alternatively, we postulate the kill was RBed entirely. I was going to be coy for a while and just play along with everyone's suggestions in the hopes of sensing if anyone had TMI but I think the fact I don't even know if I was attacked pretty much implies what I'll just come out and say. I didn't use a Spellbook, am not a Thug, and don't have a protective item so honestly anyone's guess on what happened is as good as mine. Hopefully this means we can at least rule out some bad answers here. I do think the most parsimonious answer is the kill was RBed, FWIW.
  9. Kasimir
    If it hit someone with Silver Bones or a protect item, according to Mat, they should know insofar as they lost the item. But then it's also worth that player coming forwards, so we know what is going on. Edited to add: In your view, does this make it more likely that what went off was a redirect or a roleblock? Since the odds of no one going insane are about 42% if we discount Iron Will?
  10. Kasimir
    I'm going to repeat again the rule clarification which you can ask @Elandera yourself: you're not told if you're attacked. I wish I knew, but I don't Edited to add: I think I see how she's finessing this. If you are a Thug or have a protect item or anything that's oneshot, you're told if you lose it. If you're a sad peon like me, then you just don't know what happened and get annoyed at not knowing >>
  11. Kasimir
    Because I am kind of wondering if someone else did, tbh Edited to add: @Devotary of Spontaneity / @Araris Valerian - You're the maths people here. Credences that I really just got unlucky with the 5%? Edited to add 2: I'll note that in a world where I did use a spellbook, I should probably tell the thread at some point because of the odds I redirected the kill. @Matrim's Dice - Are you told if you lose Silver Bones? Because Elan did say survivals wouldn't be mentioned but it feels odd to not know if you have an extra life or not. Edited to add 3: Oh and because I think it has implications for your alignment in a few worlds, mostly.
  12. Kasimir
    You're not told why you went insane, only that you went insane, hence my general confusion about what's happening.
  13. Kasimir
    Suppose I did use a Spellbook. Suppose also that I'm a Villager. If that's true, then the only correct or reasonable move for me to have made with the Spellbook is to have made my target redirect to themselves. This way, I get an Elim to kill themselves. (There's also a world in which I get one target to hit another suspect but let's just say I'm not that spicy, that's more Fifth and Drake. As you might remember from MR61 ) If my target redirected the kill to themselves, they should have died. But they did not. The fact they did not implies they survived, which means that Broken Survivors should've triggered and we should have seen a second insane player, unless they have Iron Will (I think? IDK.) Or unless this was their Silver Bones guy I guess. The fact you're not remotely thinking about extra insanity in this world makes me wonder if there's an element of TMI going on here, but maybe in a good way. IDK. If I didn't manage to redirect an Elim, even worse because now we have to explain yet another survival and another player who didn't trigger Broken Survivors. Thank you, Ghostblood Bro, I said as much <3
  14. Kasimir
    Oh and FWIW - I don't feel I'm a natural Alvron kill. Edited to add: Aloha, as I know you're on B&W Kindle - not voting here, just bolded the name so it jumps out.
  15. Kasimir
    Haven't you heard @Amanuensis and @Illwei on that score? :eyes: Edited to add: Imma be honest, Mat is forgetting something and it's making me wonder if that makes him more likely to be a Villager or not.
  16. Kasimir
    Indeed, clearly a plan to let me die honorably and exit the game failed, foiled by...whatever the chulls just went down Fair enough, and it's a good attitude to have. It's interesting to me actually, in terms of likely targeting. Edited to add: This is an interesting comment
  17. Kasimir
    Why 5% chance? Are you thinking of the world in which I failed my roll?
  18. Kasimir
    Does require me to agree to deepwolf though. We know my opinions on that
  19. Kasimir
    According to Elan, no >> I may have shifted to Discord so I could use stronger language to make my opinions on this rule clear >>
  20. Kasimir
    >> Smh. Judging y'all. Edited to add: Kasimir might have been attacked! He was Seraphimon!
  21. Kasimir
    @Elandera: Ma he's bullying me /sad Patamon noises j/k j/k @Amanuensis
  22. Kasimir
  23. Kasimir
    What in tarnation
  24. Kasimir
    Fair enough. Back to the drawing board then...
  25. Kasimir
    I'm not necessarily sure I would trust me on that. I think QF63 and LG93 showed I have a real weakness in terms of trying to read weird things players do and go "this is so weird no Elim would do that." Cf. giving Wiz a pass for that last minute tie, TJ for that weird "I suspect Ash but will vote Sart", and something Araris did in that same game I don't really recall. Edited to add: The one place I do hesitate is again, I wonder if Aloha's teammates would've talked him through offering a read. Since most of my pressure on Aloha comes from the fact I think a consistent in their play is engagement with the game and that's missing here - obvious element being there's nothing to solve as an Elim in thread. But then again, I also tend to overclear players with that ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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