Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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Alright. First thing's first, a quick and dirty analysis: Let's go back to the D1 votes. I want to get some discussion fodder out and can't hold on until I do the full progression analysis so oy vey lesgo. Suppose we return to the state of the votes. Everyone voted except JNV. Even if JNV is Evil, they should at least have two other teammates who also voted. (This is for the moment disregarding E!Cord team composition theories, where ex hypothesi, the Elim team has two members, because it's kinda hard to justify giving an Elim team 2KP a cycle.) ...I still sort of lean V!Cord though, for the record. E!CS with no alignment scans and one RB feels a bit uphill. But this is me thinking off the top of my head. The point I'm making here anyway is that there has to be at least one Elim voter in the pile. So the trick is discovering them. The Devo side-train was just me and I'm Vikemon! So I'm not going to really consider this one. I'm going to try an experiment first. I'm going to colour everything in with my naive credences (i.e. end of N1, with the info from the flips today) - then I'm going to check for inconsistencies and identify what needs revision. This leaves me with a team in <Ash, Devo, TKN.> (JNV isn't here but recall I have some slight Village credences from end of N1.) This is...possible but just weird. I don't really see E!Ash going to Dingo mode with that team. Devo choosing not to save Ash but voting on Araris is a bit odd, as I think she could have voted TJ without too much issues. Devo occasionally has a tendency to overbus teammates, so I can mark this as revisable, but I think that's a prima facie argument against how viable this line of thought is. (Also I don't remotely believe I'm this right D2.) Re-Read Thoughts: Ok sorry guys, this section borked. I did a read-through of the entire thread in my GM PM but it looks like the Shard ate easily half my comments. I don't want to completely redo right now so I'm just gonna...just gonna... :sob: Me rn: Day One Re-Read Thoughts: Recapping my thoughts: The Stick kill really isn't in Devo's MO. That's a in her favour though it's worth noting kill meta swamping can occur. I give TKN a slight for the Sart mention, but it basically faded into the dust and he has also racked up for general thread disinterest/lack of engagement. I think I am alright with for Alpha on multiple counts: Alpha's vote switches really don't look great, but a Stick kill is not necessarily a good choice for an Alpha team. Relooking at the exchanges, it seems rather natural. I still lean on TJ: the Sart point again, and TJ's vote on Ash doesn't really make that much sense though I'd like to know why @|TJ| moved off Wiz citing a point on Sart. I am mixed about Wiz. I lean on the basis of thread and posts but Wiz's votes aren't inspiring. It's difficult to see a world in which Wiz and Ash are teamed. I sort of want to lean on Ash because the Ash train did in fact meet opposition but also dissolved organically, and Wiz doesn't look teamed with Ash. With a combination of that and high train purity, I'm struggling to see coherent E!Ash. But Ash channelling inner Dingo isn't very inspiring either of trust. Xino. Acknowledge I'm still paranoid of Araris, had a few points where I felt Telrao felt pure or uncoached, again I'll pull it all later, I just feel very demoralised over losing my posts and notes right now. TKN IMO is definitely a candidate, and I squint at JNV - technically they're a bit more in their Village meta, but they're in the pool. Despite the Devo kill meta point, I am more inclined to feel Devo's intervention reads rather gerrymandered into the Araris vote. In an E!Ash world, the main culprits for significant vote hopping are: myself, Stick, Archer, Wiz, Telrao, Alpha. (TJ doesn't count as he voted for Ash at crucial junctures.) Wiz doesn't really make sense either, and I think there's some reason to believe V!Alpha. Which sort of leaves an Ash/Telrao team but I don't think Ash goes this silent if Telrao is Evil, and it doesn't account for some of Telrao's responses/posts. So I sort of feel like I'm stuck with a potential V!Ash conclusion either way. If V!Ash, then the stability of Xino's vote has to come back into question - Elims have less incentive to switch because it's a comfortable state of affairs. Araris, Devo, and TKN also show up as stability candidates. That's it from me for now. Brb crying over my lost notes ._. Edited to add: Like, if there's something specific you want me to mention, lmk, but rn it's just so painful trying to recreate everything and immediately redo the thread read. My take on Xino boils down to the fact I think the tonal points are marginally Village rather than decisively so and Xino's vote stability sticks out with all the hopping - Xino basically sticks on Ash and doesn't budge. It makes sense in light of Xino being the CW but as soon as Xino stopped being the CW, it becomes more questionable and suggests low investment.
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You have to revote - each Day is a clean slate.
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Thanks. I think this at least rules out one paranoid theory I had...
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I think it's reasonable to conclude, as Devo notes, that it's E!kill Stick, and Cord kill Archer. Which is an interesting choice on both ends, and makes me slightly concerned about an E!Cord game. Going to need to redo my reads and a vote analysis in light of this flips, but not until the painkillers kick in. K, so the problem here is that I have a tendency to want Araris to be Village more often than he is, so if anything, I will tend to give him more chances even when the evidence says we should probably flip him. His moving to you late at EoD is something that stood out to me and that I haven't quite made sense of. My current thoughts, pre-reread: I don't really know why E!you deliberately goes for Ash over Sart, after mentioning Sart is sus. You just get sus out of it. Maybe there's something in the vote-state I'm missing out and that I need to recheck, but that doesn't feel like it comes very much from an Elim viewpoint. Well, the problem is it really does, because it suggests agenda, but the flips make it difficult to see why there should be agenda there, so it ends up seeming more Village. Maybe there's a mistake I'm making here, but re-read won't happen until pks. My problem with the Araris vote is why not Sart? He could've saved Ash more decisively - not knowing if anyone would peel off Ash just means that his voting you essentially doesn't really do anything apart from padding the votes a little just in case someone goes for you. Trying to campaign for a train on V!you is a small risk - admittedly small because it's unlikely there'll be too many takers at EoD, but then we have to question how successful that would be in saving E!Ash. Araris is known to dislike drawing attention on C1 as an Elim. (I asterisk this because he likes to break his own patterns.) Given Ash's willingness to park a vote on Araris, I don't feel like they're coherently very E/E, since the CW to save Lopen could've taken out Araris. Tbh the fact I'm still alive is making me squint a little at you, Araris, and JNV >> Wiz was too willing to move back onto Ash near EoD, before moving off again at last minute. Feels like there's no real impetus to do that unless you postulate Wiz was gambling that his vote on Ash would deter others from voting on Ash. Hopping on and off Ash draws unnecessary attention. That's my take on it. Hmmm. Would you be willing to answer with a Yes/No if you blocked Araris? He has a habit of liking to put in the kills, so if you did block him, I think that's useful to know. I feel your pain, this is me a lot, though since I think late last year, I end up with waaaay too many Village reads until I can do vote analysis. Yes. Araris for now. Edited to add: @|TJ| - Archer and Stick were more sold on V!Alpha than I was. It's true the Elims can't predict who Cord kills unless Cord is Evil but I feel that killing the player I trusted more than Archer (Stick) who also was very vocal about defending Alpha makes little sense in an E!Alpha world - getting rid of me removes several birds with a stone.
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Hmm. Do you consider V!Ash the more plausible read of the situation then?
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I guess my thought is: do they do that even to the point of Ash being endangered? I feel like there's a point you have to acknowledge no one is biting and then decide what to do. And if you do resign to the fact that Ash is doomed, you might as well get bussing credit out of it. I know, QF64, which drove us astray because we assumed Aman was Evil. I mostly just associate TKN with this sort of play I guess. Yeah it's extreme fragmentation. Only thought I have is the potential unlikeliness of doubling up. What's the other reason then? We don't vote at Night! I do like this post though. Doesn't feel too performative, and you'd think that a doc would keep Telrao better informed. Not too sure though. Why? This is an odd statement to make. This line of reasoning could be extended to a large majority of D1 votes because unless the Village gets lucky in shooting, odds are we have a D1 friendly fire vote anyway. No one that I can see in the thread is raising the fact that your vote is confirmed wrong specifically as grounds for suspicion - it's not so much your vote per se as the grounds for it, player behaviour, what the player chooses to engage with, and the context surrounding the vote. Or even raw PoE "I have reason to V read these people but not you."
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For me, it's largely tonal - relaxed interactions that tonally match with QF63 and LG90. More willingness to engage with the thread, too. Problem is, that only goes so far - I feel like Xino is one of the group of players who does like to coast when given Village credit. I'd still lean Village between the two but can be convinced to revise and downgrade. Just not based off C1, I think. Four player versus V!CS, V!Lurcher, and V!RBer would seem right. But I am not sure I quite believe in a V!Ash world. I acknowledge the main problem with my E!Ash theory is that no one seemed to save Ash, which indicates Elims were either not present or tied down, or that it's in <Wiz, you>, both of which are challenging teammates to postulate based off my current beliefs. Araris coldly going for a TJ CW doesn't quite fit the bill either. I think the Ash/Araris E/E theory isn't very consistent, so not inclined to think Elim inaction was a result of Araris also being on the hook. And the others were Sart, TJ, and Alpha, whom I think we both have credences in, and Sart flipped .
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Let's try a different angle. Suppose that Ash is Evil for the moment. (Don't know, just suppose.) This means that every single train here has to be examined in light of being a potential CW meant to draw pressure off Ash: Araris: More or less entails that Ash and Araris are E/V, as Ash willingly leaves Araris endangered or as a potential CW. Ash's initial vote could be seen as a distancing vote, but the stickiness of it suggests a disregard for Araris's wellbeing. On Devo: Stick: No one jumped on and judging from thread mood, feels like this was always going to be a longshot in terms of being a CW or splintering off votes. Unlikely E/E with Ash I think. There's a world in which TKN does the same as in QF64 and doesn't want to intervene too much for fear of being caught in vote analysis, so some reservations here, but other than that... Sart CW, which was started by Archer as a sticky poke that never went away. Questionable. Some potential buy-in given the extent to which TJ, Stick, and myself were going all over the place on Sart. Alpha: Started by Telrao, and unlikely to go serious places in light of both SE meta (don't kill the new players C1 if you can) and early consensus on V!Alpha. Feels like Telrao's teammates would advise against this as a serious CW. Archer: Possible, especially if Alpha was under the impression it was a live train, and I'd certainly voted for Archer at one point before taking it back because I was voting for TJ. TJ: Started by Sart, so by definition, cannot be CW. On Araris: Devo: I'm Vikemon! (Someone please tell me you get the meme ref.) Of course, all this presumes E!Ash. If there's V!Ash, we have a few things that pop out: Relooking at the final vc: You either commit to thinking we have a 4/1 split in the final tie, or 5/0 in terms of V/E. This likely explains low temperature but also points to some amount of Elim complacency. (Someone can dispute this; I'm working with the V!TJ and V!Alpha assumptions here.) I don't think the 4/1 and 5/0 analyses substantively differ because they both entail likely low Elim investment. Which means formally, the set of potential Elims is in: <JNV, Xino, Devo, TKN, Archer, Stick, Telrao, Wiz, Araris, Kasimir.> Of these: Stick, Wiz had high volatility. Archer, TKN, Devo, JNV, Telrao, Araris had high stability. I'm going to lean towards the latter group for the moment: you could argue lack of investment entails high volatility, but there's also the adage about not helping when the enemy (in the case of the Elims, that'd be us!) is making a mistake. Current Thoughts: That's where I am at, I think. Other comments: I'm confused, both about this and @_Stick_'s hypothesised distro.
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Why would you both ask this and assume TKN was Rushu... Fair, that was my initial line of reasoning, yeah. It's possible I just powerfully dislike chaosplay and that influences my read. I definitely have downgraded Drake in my reads before on the basis of chaosplay. At least I no longer feel comfortable with that Village read and have weakened it, even if I don't think I'd push Alpha tomorrow. I do think that where new players who display some meta familiarity are concerned, there's some slack there for our assumptions about their risk tolerance and playstyle to go wrong, so I'm ok with downgrading the read. E!Wiz switching largely only makes sense in an E!Ash world, I would agree (I think.) It's also possible (maybe?) that the team decided that there were few enough Elims implicated in the multi-way tie that they didn't particularly care about switching off - roll a marginal die, and Wiz doesn't need to implicate himself further (given earlier controversial voting patterns and performativity concerns - being one of three lethal voters on a Village flip would look bad. With Xino seeming to be read Village for the moment, and TJ with some critics but also some defenders, I think E!Wiz wouldn't fancy his odds in the pool. But then there's the question of why E!Wiz went back to E!Ash anyway. Voting your teammates for distancing generally works fine, and sometimes people try train explosion as @Araris Valerian points out. I'd argue none of the criteria for train explosion here are met: the train was dissolving naturally (as much as it was going to), Wiz's vote came at an hour to EoD which isn't really the time for dissolution, and there isn't enough momentum there to make people genuinely nervous and to jump off. Moreover, the Ash train hadn't really budged most of the day, which makes me think that it doesn't really make sense. Lethal distancing that way is just odd, unless you propose that E!Wiz was planning to move off at the last minute. This is the vote-state at the switch. Wiz moves off TJ, whom FWIW I read, and goes to Ash. What sticks out to me about this move: -Unnecessary Ash endangerment - without the move to Ash, we're looking at a 2/2/2/2 tie between Ash, Araris, Sart, and TJ. We can't even postulate that there are two Elims endangered, because with 1/4 the players in the tie being Village, and I think a decent case for V!TJ, Wiz votes for Ash. This only makes sense in a Wiz/Ash/Araris team but then ex hypothesi, has Wiz choosing to damn one teammate to save another. I guess you could consider it a deliberate sacrifice move to gain cred, but that feels a bit far afield for me at the moment - it's not a layer I want to unpack unless given reason to. It's an opposite movement to Ash's claim so it doesn't feel right in a Wiz/Ash E/E world either. -We could postulate E!Wiz is trying to save E!Araris, but I kind of think Araris is fine with a 1/4 roll fo the dice, rather than having Wiz incriminate himself for him. Again, Araris might have advised the switch-off, but I sort of think that the events of a certain traumatising MR probably made E!Wiz more likely to wait for doc feedback than less likely -Now, Wiz does swap to Alpha later on which makes it a five-way after Araris votes TJ, and as Archer points out, we can probably try to make inferences about that based off the incentives. <Ash, Araris, Sart, TJ, Alpha.> Right now, Archer and Stick are defending V!Alpha. I don't feel as confident about V!Alpha as I did earlier, but for the sake of argument, let's give them that. In Ash/Wiz/Araris world, 1/2 odds of hitting an Elim isn't great, and keep in mind that this could've easily been averted by voting Sart or TJ. Wiz was already on TJ earlier; I'm not sure swapping back to TJ is the worst for him, although it admittedly involves a climbdown. He could try to ride the Sart votes. I'll note Araris is known to want to avoid suspicious vote shifts (see: LG82, where he allowed a tie in which two out of three of the players were Elims and he was voting his own teammate becaue he felt moving off was more suspicious) so I guess a significant amount of this does come down to whether Araris's risk preferences are dominant in this world. Wiz's vote switch does improve the odds marginally, from 1/2 to 3/5, so maybe there's that, but the 1/2 3/5 difference feels like the point you're just better off turning a train into a three vote train and riding the backlash. It's so marginal. So I lean against the E/E/E world I guess. IDK maybe thinking when I should be sleeping wasn't the brightest idea but insomnia is one hell of a trip, I'll respond to other things later. I'll say this, and that's that the thing that jumps out to me is that Wiz questions Alpha's move from Ash to Archer, says it gives him bad vibes, and votes...Ash. I can sort of see why, but there's a certain amount of ??? why not vote Alpha? He does do so eventually though. I can see a Wiz/Araris E/E world FWIW.
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Thoughts: -Good look for TJ that Sart has flipped Village. Odd take, but my rationale is that TJ passed up a clear chance to vote Sart in favour of gerrymandering a vote for Ash. I wasn't the only one who commented on it - that grounded Sart's own vote for TJ. TJ going onto Ash is a bit weird in a TJ/Ash E/E world unless you think TJ was trying to employ train explosion tactics. But then again, the train had just dissolved! So unclear to me why E!TJ goes onto E!Ash. In light of that, I feel more confident in ascribing TJ a - Tbvh, my line of thought assumes that E!Alpha plays like a loose cannon. Which I think is plausible enough, at least when trying to decide how cool I feel with joining that late vote switch. He's reminiscent of MR56 Thaid and that doesn't inspire very much trust. The 'secret reasons' reads to me like a new player trying to FAFO and having difficulty generating reasons tbh, so hiding it behind a mindgames smokescreen. My rejoinder to 3 is that the team wargames responses but notices that Alpha is passing well in the FNG tier and decides not to mess with it. Possibly Alpha does in fact have responses for if he encounters serious pressure, but there was no real Alpha appetite last cycle anyway. IDK how much weight I'd ascribe to it, but chaosplay always loses trust from me because it feels like a playstyle deliberately designed to make you difficult to read, so why should I be confident you are Village? I'd say his read has decayed functionally to somewhere in the category. -My difficulties with Devo is I read her first post as being a tad more V!Devo and her second post feels a bit more crafted in the way E!Devo guides/restricts her votes. This results in read decay, probably for the moment. -In the E!Ash world, the Elims would've: A. gambled on a lot of ties, and B. been fine with a last minute switch onto Ash/off. Ash didn't self-pres - can anyone here confirm whether Ash was on at EoD to save himself if need be? I don't recall seeing him when I logged out. B IMO indicates at least one Elim with the potential to control things, which looks to me like it has to be in <Wiz, Stick.> Stick is more likely in explaining why 'Dingo mode' triggered, but I'm not sure how convinced I am of an E!Ash world at this juncture, and Ash seems to think he'll give us more content. The other simpler explanation IMO is of course, that Ash is Village and so the Elims didn't particularly care. This also makes sense of why the Ash lead train barely budged for most of the cycle. Can't work out which I think is more likely without more sleep. -FWIW I still have Stick in but can't deny I feel as though I've suffered light reads decay here after the whole Wiz-Ash-Sart dancearound, and Sart's flip. -I'll do pathwalking at some stage and offer my reads prior to EoN. But also have more Digimon episodes to watch so /shrug -Probably would like a PM with @_Stick_ for interests of avoiding too much thread overflow so Rushu if you have nothing better to do, would appreciate, but if you have better things to do, dwai. I just feel bad about my part in contributing to a 9 page D1 >> -Yeah I could make it myself but my priorities mean it is important to make a PM to drag TJ for thinking looks cute. Just wth TJ.
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>> ffs. Are you telling me my dream of finding a Sleepless and killing them will come true if I vote you? :eyes: Funny enough, my wanting to vote you becomes less appealing when Alpha switches off to you at the last minute for no apparent reason I'm distrustful of that late switch given Alpha's constant vote instability and now flat out mention that reason is unlikely to be forthcoming, and opening game credit can only go so far before it feels like a player is flat out exploiting the read. I'm gonna be making a PM with @|TJ|, for the sake of clarity. This guy needs to be relentlessly shamed about finding Gesomon cute >:(
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I... Devo Four Holy Beasts forgive me I just dk anymore and am following a hunch. Goodnight everyone.
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K. In terms of where my vote is going as I need to medicate and sleep: -View on Ash and Sart currently is somewhere in the vicinity of "IDGAF anymore go ahead but I won't help you." Sort of weakened my credences after massive Sart crawl, but I still don't really think he's Evil and don't want to go there. Pragmatic argument for Ash is weakened IMO by Mat's clarification but IDK how strong I feel the Lopen point is. -IDK about Wiz anymore. I still reasonably don't want to go after Alpha or Telrao D1, and the same goes for the <JNV, TJ, Araris> set. Excluding them, there's <Stick, Xino, Devo, TKN, Archer> Xino and Stick are non-starters for today. I sort of get a Village vibe off Devo, but it's a very weak one and I wouldn't stake the farm on it. Between TKN and Archer... Urgh. I've been thinking of Archer's hanging back, and I feel as though he's in a middle ground between completely hanging back and in a place where he's advancing the thread, e.g. his interactions with Wiz. Some of it is likely a function of where my/Stick's/TJ's timezones overlap (the AG8 KGB says hi) but at the same time, it's a good place for E!him to lurk. But I don't like Alpha's vote on Archer out of the blue like this. I think I'm rethinking everything too much at this point to be helpful right now, sorry. Make a guy for just one game which cannot be spoken of and he forgets how to -.- @_Stick_ Edited to add: Can anyone tell me if Ash has, at any point, not been the lead train? I'm tired and have a lot of tabs right now.
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@|TJ|: My take on it - LG67, V!Sart: I want to point you to two things here: first, Sart just lays out his thoughts. He is direct - Sart tends to be very direct - but he's not particularly involved emotionally IMO. All the statements I've highlighted are direct statements but they're opinion statements: "I fundamentally disagree with..." "They are absolutely indicative of..." If this were a verbal debate in Skyrim, he Fus-Ro-Dahed Striker and just went for the jugular. Compare with: LG92, E!Sart: IMO the highlighted sentences here have a stronger emotional valence than the sample. There's a difference between "this is a distraction for the Village" and "a black hole of discussion" - the second is more loaded. I don't want to say the 'o' word but there's a bit more of a critical distance in the first, I'd argue, which implies that Sart is taking this vote more personally (=/= @ Aman, it could just be in terms of stakes or experiences.) "stayed alive way past your due date" + the whopper "I'm not going to let you keep this up." This is very aggressive and hits a lot harder than in LG67. The confounding factor here is IDK if this has to do with the fact that Aman is known to make such plays and Sart has been on the receiving end at least once, or if this is endemic to Elim Sart. There's nothing at all that is particularly emotionally loaded about any of the accusations E!Sart makes in LG82, for instance. Compare to this game: It's very detached. I'm not picking up any valence at all. There's confidence but it's not emotionally loaded confidence. In fact, if anything, Sart is extremely blase about Xino's flip? It's like he dgaf about Xino's flip. That part, I'd almost tonally give a for. I don't think this is particularly telling as I don't think the circumstances of each post are very easily related to each other, but you asked for my view. Join the club :sob: Ok fair, I don't disagree that could be possible. Either way, no alignment scanner, so we really can't afford to subordinate player analysis to role analysis and Beagle this. Owls are cute. TJ. Edited to add: Tbh, @Sart - You say you do role analysis best. What's your take on Ash's Lopen claim? Edited to add 2: Right sorry got distracted with all this. @Matrim's Dice got back to me. Us normies do not get a message when we get roleblocked. I didn't think Mat would be so kind, but it was worth a shot In other words, roleblock IMO is weakened in what it does.
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Oh my God why would you find Gesomon cute TJ clearly Evil af >:(
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Yeah, but pushing a neutral and pushing what is essentially a very suspicious and baity move are two different things. Saying the Elims don't want to antagonise a claimed neutral makes a hell of a lot more assumptions in a blackout game (they didn't know, and if you read the Elim doc, they had trust issues with Aman anyway.) It's also generally an assumption about SE meta which only holds true because we consider killing a neutral to be rude/not advance wincon. You'll notice that in LG83, the Elims openly discussed killing me because I was acting against their interests anyway. Being fourth voter on a train before Rollovet looks a lot more suspicious - trains that suddenly gain momentum rightfully get a lot of attention. And why didn't Sart's teammates point that out? Sure, he's not the most communicative doc player but you'd expect that to be the one glaring thing people note about Xino in recent games, especially because Xino has both been missed for it (E!Xino) and MLed for it, and that's that he objectively has very few (hyper)active Elim games. I'm too used to people who venture out of the subforum, but yeah this is how I pulled it on mobile. I'm not referring to that at all. 1. He opened LG92 with the Aman push. E!Sart also loves his CC votes: ...Which makes his reluctance to CC Devo all the more weird, unless we're back in Ash/Sart E/E world. But TJ is a Whole New Train, as far as I can recall, since that's prior to Wiz stacking on. You can't argue he was trying to bait me onto TJ because I also made it clear I'm generally not willing to consider TJ on the table for D1. 2*. Small parallel I can see is probably to this game is how he opened LG82, and he was Evil there, so... He frames it as a bandwagon question but the charge isn't about bandwagoning per se but about that being a deviation, which is fundamentally a meta argument, just opposite-valenced from the one against Xino. So you could make an argument he likes meta arguments. 3. Agree about the confidence point here: V!Sart does this as well, so that's less helpful. 4. To me, the real distinguishing point is this: (A) As TJ and I pointed out, there's no real reason to agree with Archer on this. It's a point worth pushing back on because it actually can be NAI or if it is AI, it's just weakly so. The AI case presumes Archer has in mind a theory about E!Sart pre-flipping V!Devo and not wanting to poke vote there but that barely holds water anyway as he'd be the first Devo voter. No reason to withhold his usual CC MO here. (Sart should also be experienced enough not to get stunlocked by something like that.) (B) That very self conscious paragraph below. The entire Orlok section of the post you're referring to doesn't have an analogue to it. Because he doesn't at any point explicitly undercut himself to that extent. He's arguing against Orlok and reiterating his point on Aman's claim being unhelpful. Here, he's just got an entire self-conscious paragraph on how his post doesn't make sense. It's not emotional in the same way some players get but it is revealing in a way that I haven't seen E!Sart indulging in when he writes his posts, and this is after scanning everything he did for LG92. In LG82, which I linked, he just says he doesn't want to die. in LG92, it's a one-liner, which, if you remember from the Elim doc, he panic-wrote: The closest analogue? AG8. Ash-wise: My main struggle with this is I can see it both ways. If he did self-pres, it'd technically be NAI, but at the same time, it's what E!him would want to do. It's harder for me to see E!Ash log off without self-presing - it places the burden on his teammates to save him which is arguably unnecessarily incriminating for them. It's a fair point about Dingo apathy but if it is Dingo apathy, then I'd have to look within <you, TJ, Archer, Araris> because Dingo triggers under specific conditions for Ash, and I'm Vikemon. Wiz Archer The heart wants what it wants. Or as Hume says, "Reason is the servant of the passions and can pretend to no higher office than to serve them." Edited to add: Yeah - IMO giving the Village Lopen and the Elims Huio is a bit rougher for the Village as Cord is more likely to misfire, especially at the start (unless channelling Alv.) It's not impossible but I don't consider it as likely. Edited to add 2: Elims blocking friendly fire isn't the worst, @|TJ| - I'd argue that it'd've been better for us if someone had blocked Fifth that cycle. Sometimes it's better for the Village to be stuck trying to resolve a player - info denial game, aka 'fliplessness.'
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Two quick things as I'm on mobile: 1. I think it's worth keeping in mind V!Sart does that too. I linked a post from Heron that was functionally the same. I also think it's weird for E!Sart to functionally pass up either the CC or the really obvious claim that Xino's vote is sus. 2. Tbf you have a point about Ash's lack of self pres. Aaaaaaaaaa I am now going to spend the next ten minutes seeing if I can update the ISO bot to yank all Sart posts from the hell that is LG92... EDIT: ngl I'm gonna be mad af if Wiz is Village but mostly at myself I legit spent most of this Day going "actually no I don't really think he's Evil?" only to finally get worn down and talked into seeing the E!Wiz case and then it turns out I just shouldn't have doubted myself that hard. EDITED 2: @_Stick_ Pulled all of Sarenrae's posts, can't format right on mobile. Will link on PC in twenty but in general, am uncertain where the contention that Sart's admission of fault tracks with LG92. He's more collected there despite being aggressive.
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K. I sent Mat a question in my GM PM but functionally a good amount depends IMO on whether only our unique roles receive roleblock messages. If anyone receives a roleblock message, then I'm willing to swap trains. The reason is pragmatism: I do think the Lopen is likely to be but I also dislike running off a distro assumption D1 to keelhaul. (The rejoinder here is that the unique roles are unique so until one of them is killed, it's difficult to really make an assessment here.) Likely Cord is one way or another, we'd probably be too screwed if Cord wasn't, but that being said, there's still a few ways this could pan out, including all unique roles being Village and a slightly larger Elim team. If just about anyone receives a roleblock message, then effectively, we know whether Ash is putting in the kill or not. I'd be fine with that provisional/pragmatic clear for the moment. Mat does say he won't be back until rollover, so I'm probably just going to have to make an executive decision here. I think I'm erring on the side of caution. I guess I have two options. I can unvote and just leave the NAs to sort out the rest of the mess, or I can probably give it my best shot. Well, three options. I can make a new train and let the Devil take the hindmost. Sigh. Why is this my problem ._. Sigh let me not regret this. Wiz, Ash I don't know I fully believe this, but I don't know if there's gonna be appetite for an Archer train, I prefer not to see Araris or TJ D1ed, and if I'm hardcommitting to playing it safe until Mat gets back...¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Last shot. Unlikely to be on for rest of the Day or to have bandwidth. Current Reads: : Kas Self-explanatory. I'm Vikemon! : Alpha, Stick, Xino, Sart, Araris, TJ(????) Hoo boy. If I stop tearing my hair out, this is probably everyone I have some reason to Village read. Could italicise Sart as being someone I'm more unsure of, and credit for early D1 only goes so far for Alpha. I liked Araris's posts but then I have this issue of always wanting Araris to be Village so I could easily be overrating him. Think I also oversuppress TJ sometimes and I really vibed with his last post. Enough to cautiously upgrade. : JNV, TKN, Wiz, Telrao, Devo No strong or decisive valenced read on anyone in Shakomon. I sort of want to JNV but don't think there's any real basis for this. I like TKN's exchange with Stick but am waiting on what Stick refers to as a LG90 interaction because I don't know what she's talking about. I have been all over the place for Wiz and the fact I'm willing to be down with a Wiz train despite not wanting to join it indicates Wiz can't be beyond Shakomon for me. I get where Stick and TJ are coming from, my gut just doesn't agree, and I think that's partly centred in a playstyle read, and more strongly centred in the thought that it's hard for me to make sense of the way E!Wiz pushed Xino. No strong read for Telrao, and I sort of want to Devo tonally but that's neither here nor there; same issue with JNV. : Ash, Archer This is probably an indication that if you just post, I will probably somehow talk myself into giving you a somewhere. Which is sort of what's up with Ash. With regard to Archer, just the hanging back and the Sart interaction make me wary. It's a bit too narrow a PoE so I'd probably functionally be willing to let anyone in die. Aaaaand ninja-ed by Ash. >> Tfw you theorise the Lopen is Evil...
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K I actually need more sleep, so brief catch up places: It raised these memories for me. Context: V!Sart and Rhino are 2/2 in votes, this is sort of early in the Day. I think this is tonally more Village from him. I don't recall seeing E!him make that sort of response. My main question is why I am seeing this as a response to a single vote on D1 when he's not near being a viable train. Basically it's what makes me believe that Sart's response is coming more from his heart than anything. And so I am reading it as more Village because it doesn't feel calculated. Sigh. Not wrong. Look bhai if you are sus of Wiz I get it as I've been going on that edge with regard to his disinterest in solving and sheeping. One thing/question that I don't understand only is - in E!Wiz world, why the blazes doesn't he at any point just frame the Xino vote as being both about sheeping and Xino's fourth vote? Xino put a votecount right there, for an Elim to recognise this looks like a bad vote (opportunism!) but to fail to hammer it in the way Wiz did (half-hearted gut statement) just feels oddly conflicted. Edited to add: TJ/Ash E/E doesn't really make all that much sense. Worth noting here that TJ's Wiz vote opens a new train in a cycle when he's really busy and potentially exposes TJ to risk since it reduces the Ash train to having a single vote lead over TJ in a cycle with high volatility so far. Wouldn't overemphasise this because he can still make a self-pres vote later, but it's unnecessary risk IMO especially if he's busy. Weak point for it.
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K. Went back and did a look at Wiz's posts. @_Stick_: I can't fully quite bring myself to back a Wiz train, but I won't interfere with it. He's very much in territory for me. I appreciate it's kind of sad because we seem to be having differing reads on TKN as well, but to quote Sart, the heart wants what it wants and I don't really feel alright with assenting fully to E!Wiz. Evaluation appended below. Wiz: D1 In summation: difficulty generating suspicions and low engagement with the game is not a good look. I do think this is consistent with a quiet early Village game, e.g. AG9 on Wiz's part, but have tentatively awarded at points for what is, in my view, an extremely isolated and unconvincing push on Xino which really shouldn't have happened in most reasonable E!Wiz worlds I can think of. It's a weak award because I don't really believe that Village points for not playing like an E!you should be weighted the same as Village points for playing like V!you. I'm not really fond of the lack of articulation at multiple junctures, e.g. @The Wandering Wizard states he is confused by Xino and thinks Sart is the same sort of confused as him. If you're re-reading, you should be able to articulate what makes you confused, or at least try to. (Hi Wiz, would be a good time to flesh it out if you can ) There's little interest in solving IMO and multiple points of pure reactivity. Part of me thinks E!Wiz tries harder. But again, that's not really much of a defense for not appearing Village. Net evaluation: Probably somewhere in the low range but an outright doesn't feel right to me. If I split the difference, it's probably . Make of it what you will. So I'm more or less at the 'CW Wiz if you want but I won't help' place.
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That's fair, I've been known to vote me for kicks too Any chance you can try to articulate what about Xino set your gut off? What about it? Can you pull it for me? It's late and I'm tired and I had to save my pen because I accidentally put yoghurt in it. I was sort of leaning a bit positive on TKN for his altercation with you, and am curious if you can show me what about it flags it in a negative way for you. (Why are we repeating this...literally the same deal with Wiz too ._. ) I don't understand this and am now feeling the fact I don't understand this could be indicative of V!Sart. Don't fully disagree with this, as I had a similar take. Bolded last bit is weird to me. I don't know how I feel about this part, but you've called neither of my qualms actually. I just find this by and large a very self-aware/defensive post, which doesn't really seem to be something I'd expect from a player who has exactly one vote's worth of pressure and isn't being fronted as a CW option. I myself just produced a disgruntled post arguing that I feel you are more Village than Evil in my reads at this juncture. Iiiiiiiiiii...don't know what to think anymore. I still lean V on Sart right now so I'm gonna just... *mutters* Ah ye gods. I feel this is more in V!Sart's meta. I get Heron vibes off this. If I have the time, I'll relook LG92, if not, I'll check L82 since that's the one E!Sart triggered my intuitions strongly.
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It is your opinion that your posts should not be AI. I disagreed then and continue to disagree. Given your recent streak of early game engagement, I consider it reasonable to ascribe a negative read to you for making two posts that were peripheral and engaged with nothing significant.
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Sort of. As I outlined in the OG post, the reads list itself is a combination of negative reads and IDGAF if you die today people. TKN was a negative read for the reasons already outlined. Devo, having neither posted nor shown up that I saw, can't expect investment from me in her survival. Some like JNV I hived off into Marching Fishes because technically insufficient to sustain a read but also I'm just not down for D1-ing them in general at this point. EDITED TO ADD: I italicised people who were there largely via inactivity. Archer is a special case as it was meta based but IMO, weaker as a reason for sus because LG91 V!Archer played similarly quiet on C1.
