Seonid
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Everything posted by Seonid
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Blood and ashes! Another Warder down? And a Wisdom? I guess we can hope that Wilson's channeler (or Orlok's) is a Darkfriend. Also - if anyone can verify whether Elodin is a Dreamwalker, that would be a very good thing right about now.
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Greetings fellow Earthlings
Seonid replied to Physicist of the Cosmere's topic in Introduce Yourself!
Welcome! Another physicist to abuse talk about physics and the cosmere with! Have a welcome upvote! -
So...is it just me, or should this cycle have been locked by now?
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PAFO means Play and Find Out. It's an alteration of the phrase RAFO, made famous by Robert Jordan and inherited by Brandon.
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Well then. Well then. Still think it was a bad idea for me to follow your suspicion, Wilson? It's my bedtime, so I'm going to come back with more discussion in the morning. Exciting day, and unexpected lynch results!
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True that, Elbereth. True that. But confirmed good plus already caught an Eliminator means that instinct is at least good this game.
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I made a few PMs - but mostly just with people I trusted. I might expand my network tonight.
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You weren't my only reasoning, Wilson - you were just what pushed me over the edge. I was interested in testing Elodin's claim via Wolfbrother tonight, because I didn't want to lynch what could be our last Dreamwalker by accident. Your suspicions made me OK with the alternate target being Gunshy, but when I voted, the lynch was tied, and I decided that I could swing it.
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The Ninja Queen strikes again
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Oh - for some reason I thought that there was a ton of RP in there on Days 1 and 2. That must have been before the game started.
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Elbereth - how close are we to breaking the LG1 record for the first couple of days of talking?
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Alright. I've watched this, and apparently we can swing the lynch onto Gunshy. And I really don't want to take a chance with our PMs. But Elodin is voting for Gunshy, which isn't the best sign. Aaaah! Indecision. You know what? Fine. Wilson was right about Sart, just like Meta was. She might be right about Gunshy too - even though her reasons for suspecting Gunshy are just as bad as her reasons for Sart. My gut told me wrong on Sart, and I don't have anything to prove Gunshy's innocence. I'll vote for him. Elodin. Gunshy.
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Rubik, did you get that count? I'm on mobile right now, otherwise I'd get ah updated one.
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Other than Gunshy or bard, is there anyone else we collectively suspect enough to want to try this?
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Elb, between you, me, and Lopen, we could probably swing it to bard. I'm not suspicious enough of Gunshy to swing the lynch there, and I'm not even sure we could. I'm a little hesitant to effect a last-minute swing, but Meta was right about Sart when I thought he was wrong.
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On the one hand, nothing I've seen diminishes my suspicions of Bard - suspicions that have been significantly reinforced by meta's analysis. On the other, Elodin really hasn't become any less suspicious to me either. On a third hand, I'm reticent to blithely walk in and lynch the Dreamwalker, shutting down pms for the rest of the game. Especially not when we could wait and target him with a wolf tonight and actually test his claim without losing pms. If he isn't, then he'll either die or price that the darkfriends have a protection role or whitecloak. If he is, then we lose a wolf kill but have verified the claim. And nothing is stopping us from lynching him again - only we'd know what we were getting into instead of guessing as to the veracity of his claim. On a fourth hand (I don't know what kind of creature we're describing now), Bard's defense of Hellscythe sounds suspiciously like an eliminator trying to protect one of his own. But that could just be my already present suspicion off bard showing through. On the fifth hand of this increasingly bizarre monster, I don't see anything extra suspicious about Hellscythe - it's his connection to bard raising the red flags to me. On a sixth hand, leaving Elodin alive to ensure pms could leave us in a situation where we have essentially an outed eliminator. However, I could be wrong about him. My intuition has not been on point. In the final analysis (for now), my gut tells me to vote for the person I find suspicious. So - Bard Elodin I think I'll leave my vote there, unless other people like the idea of leaving him alive and killing him with a wolf tonight, to check his Dreamwalker claim. I'm willing to change it if we decide to do that.
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Just for reference, since there are 10 pages to look through. Vote Tally: Straw (2*): Bard-1*, Gunshy Elodin (5*): Straw, Conquestor, Elbereth-1*, Bard-2*, Winter Hellscythe (4* net): Lopen (+1), Elbereth-2*, Araris Wilson (1): Elodin Bard (3): Nyali, Seonid, Meta Winter (1): Twei Bugsy (1): Jaime Mayor Vote: Wilson (1): Conquestor Lopen (3): Meta, Seonid, Elbereth Haelbarde (1): Mailliw *These votes are from people who have 2 votes in red and none in green - if my reckoning is correct. Elbereth's first vote is on Elodin, but she later voted on Hellscythe without retracting. Bard voted on Straw, but later on Elodin without retracting. I don't know how Gamma will adjudicate that situation. If he counts first votes only, then Straw has 2, Elodin 4, Hellscythe 3. If he counts most recent vote only, then Straw has 1, Elodin and Hellscythe 4. If he cancels the vote of anyone who has multiple votes outstanding, then Straw has 1, Elodin and Hellscythe 3. Lopen is the presumptive mayoral nominee at present, so his vote will count double. If you see any errors, please let me know so that I can correct them. I make no guarantees that I haven't missed
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Meta, you make a good point about needing to vote for mayor, so I'll follow up on it. I trust Lopen, and so I think we might as well keep him as mayor. I hadn't thought of your points against Bard - I admit that Elodin has been taking up most of my focus. It's my bedtime right now, so I'm going to do a reread of Bard's posts at the end of D1 in the morning. I'll come back and report my findings at that point.
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Well this has been an interesting discussion. Sorry for taking so long to write up my thoughts on it - every time I thought of something I wanted to say, somebody else would post changing things significantly, so eventually I decided to wait until things calmed down a little before posting my take. I'm surprised that discussion of Bard dropped so significantly; the fact that Nyali's action failed could have been a roleblock or could have been Bard being detained - I believe that Gamma has said that the GM response to both of those situations would be identical. If Bard was detained, then we are back at the same situation we had before Nyali told us her action failed. Actually, I'd like to hear a response from Bard. I think we're dropping this too fast. I'll likely bring my vote back to Elodin before the end of the cycle, unless Bard's response brings up more suspicion, but I don't want to let him off the hook so easily. Finally, I agree with Wilson that Nyali is likely village. Also, Wilson, I'm interested to know why you think that Gunshy is more suspicious than Elodin. Honestly, with Elodin's claim of Dreamwalker, I feel that the scenario you constructed falls apart. Why would an evil!Whitecloak detain Elodin if Elodin could go Dreamwalker? Elodin's Dreamwalk would have blocked scans and wolfbrother kills on him with the same efficacy as a detention, not to mention given a more plausible reason for failing actions. And without a Whitecloak (or at least one targeting Elodin - this isn't evidence that there isn't a Whitecloak on the team) as the 3rd member of the Eliminator team (hypothesized to be Gunshy, Elodin, and one other), Gunshy is not left as the only one who could have made the kill - and therefore his computer being dead no longer points to that possibility. Now, I'm more than willing to admit I could be wrong - after all, I don't have any evidence to convince me of Gunshy's innocence. I'm not emotionally invested in him not being a Darkfriend. But I don't think that your argument points to Gunshy's guilt anywhere near as strongly as you think it does, and there are - by my reckoning - much stronger leads out there to follow up on.
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It's just: [b]Text goes in here[/b]
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Just a note - this is impossible. The ta'veren only works on night actions. The Whitecloak picks their target during the day.
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According to Gamma, the player is told whether they were detained. So either straw was roleblocked or Elodin was detained. EDIT: ninjaed. I suppose straw could be lying, though I find it rather unlikely due to the lynch circumstances
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Just wondering, with White Sand and Alcatraz 5 both out this summer, does anyone know if there's going to be a release party for either book?
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I suspect you're right there. It would still make the numbers 8 out of 28 (assuming Fain gets all of his conversions before we catch him), more than 25% non-village, and an added benefit to the darkfriends of a second kill (except we caught the Forsaken before he could use it ). I wouldn't expect more than 4 on either team. Also - we've covered a lot of the ground available on the missing Darkfriend kill, but I thought of something that we haven't mentioned yet. It is possible that the darkfriends targeted the player (or one if them, if there was more than one) who was detained by the Whitecloaks. Remember, actions targeting a detained player also fail - it's not just a roleblock. It can be used as sort of a protection too.
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Ouch. That's going to hurt. I suspect that the Darkfriend kill was either roleblocked by the channeler or Detained by the Whitecloak. I assign a higher likelihood to the Whitecloak, unless the Channeler had a suspicion strong enough to use one of their one-use only Weaves to roleblock a player on the first night. I was going to suggest that whoever blocked the attack not reveal in-thread - for various safety reasons, but I realized that we have no guarantee that there will be PMs in this upcoming Night Cycle. I hope that there's a second Dreamwalker, but there's no way to know for sure. Since I'm going to bed right now, I won't be around for a great deal of discussion for a few hours. So, until I get back: Elodin, what was up with all of those vote changes?
