Long Game 79/Anonymous Game 10: The Rhythm of Freedom

[Amethyst Scorpion]

@Azure Mouse, did you really just claim a Form of Power (i.e. being an Elim) via RP? Or is that just flavor?

[Oxblood Beagle]

1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

I mean, regardless of whether you said it or not, I don't think there's another option now. There are at maximum four warform gems in this game. We have three confirmed warforms all claiming to have acquired it C1 and I know for a fact Heron did not attune N2 and N3 and probably N4 come to think of that. For you to contest the warform claim, you'd have to admit to...being both warform and a scholarform.

Heron’s confirmed, Vulture’s not.

1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

Tbh I noted it and forgot, my bad. I think I'm so used to you late voting I'm just like ??? no more last minute Beagle today?

[Mint Heron]

4 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

@Azure Mouse, did you really just claim a Form of Power (i.e. being an Elim) via RP? Or is that just flavor?

This is what I’m wondering. And did everyone just…ignore this???

[Indigo Weasel]

Aweeemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop in the jungle, the mighty jungle, the lion sleeps tonight

Edit: okay maybe context is good the person who asked about sleeping lions

*sideeyes Mouse*

2 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

This is what I’m wondering. And did everyone just…ignore this???

I noticed it, just like... what can we do?

Edit: oh yeah anyone want a PM? Otherwise I'll just use the randomised list I made although I won't make one from the random that could be explained by teammates type thing. Or probably by request either

Edited August 3, 2021 by Indigo Weasel

[Cream Tuatara]

56 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Aweeemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop in the jungle, the mighty jungle, the lion sleeps tonight

Edit: okay maybe context is good the person who asked about sleeping lions

*sideeyes Mouse*

I noticed it, just like... what can we do?

Edit: oh yeah anyone want a PM? Otherwise I'll just use the randomised list I made although I won't make one from the random that could be explained by teammates type thing. Or probably by request either

I'd take a PM. We can talk about Tetris... and stuff.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

8 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Heron’s confirmed, Vulture’s not.

Rhino and I got Warform gems D1, so either Heron/a teammate got the third or you got the third while Vulture and Heron are elim teammates, with one of them being the Scholarform that made Heron's Warform.

[Onyx Flamingo]

2 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said:

I noticed it, just like... what can we do?

My thoughts exactly. The best we can do is exe them tomorrow if we think it's a claim. Village has no power to stop them, and I don't think elims would want to.

I still think Heron would be a better choice for tomorrow, but I'm hoping to take a closer look at some of my other suspicions. The warform thing and their reaction has me questioning.

[Opal Lion]

10 hours ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

Heron’s confirmed, Vulture’s not.

I know. My point about Heron is basically that - okay, maybe let me rephrase.

• Dragonfly's gem was definitely a D1 gem, because she was attacked D2. OoA doesn't allow it to be anything but D1.
• Due to the PMs he's been making which have not been contested by the people he claims to be in PMs with, Rhino's gem was also definitely a D1 gem.
• Because she made PMs N2, N3, and N4 - we can't theorise Evil Scholar. Heron's gem was also a D1 gem.

Vulture's claimed warform from the Scholarform gem. For you to contest the warform claim specifically, you'd minimally have to claim scholarform and that you've been hanging on to that gem all this while, or that you're the scholar who put on warform  

Edited to add: I was in each of those Heron PMs so I can confirm.

Edited to add #2: Hey Elims if you come for me tonight:

3 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Aweeemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop aweemowop in the jungle, the mighty jungle, the lion sleeps tonight

You gotta come with that song 

1 hour ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

My thoughts exactly. The best we can do is exe them tomorrow if we think it's a claim. Village has no power to stop them, and I don't think elims would want to.

 

That's a tomorrow problem. I mean, only so many possibilities but assuming we think it's a claim, Elims who claim in the Night generally do it because there's little the Village can do about it. If it is a claim, he's either claiming Malibu (and thus plans to hop), or he's claiming Elim, which points to the fact he/the team is confident we can't lynch him tomorrow. Which could mean endgame.

Since we can't really do anything about this, I suggest we just get back to PM coverage and animal karaoke and leave the Mouse for the morning  

Edited August 3, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Steeldancer he/him]

So it turns out my familial obligation kind of... Disappeared, so we're going to go ahead and let this turn end at the normal time, in 3.5 hours. 

[Amber Vulture]

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

So it turns out my familial obligation kind of... Disappeared, so we're going to go ahead and let this turn end at the normal time, in 3.5 hours. 

That's a funny way of saying you were kicked out of the family barbeque

[Opal Lion]

Hey guys, taking bets on this.

Sure, we're not in the dead doc yet, but why not just do this?

Who'd win in a throwdown:

One (1) Amber Bird or the Champion of Ayaka 

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just now, Opal Lion said:

Hey guys, taking bets on this.

Sure, we're not in the dead doc yet, but why not just do this?

Who'd win in a throwdown:

One (1) Amber Bird or the Champion of Ayaka 

Oi are you challenging me

I'll have you know I've almost finished triple crowning my Ayaka I don't want to hear crap

[Opal Lion]

Just now, Steeldancer said:

Oi are you challenging me

I'll have you know I've almost finished triple crowning my Ayaka I don't want to hear crap

My friends are the Zhongli fanbois I'm not about to get involved, I've resisted Genshin this long  

[Steeldancer he/him]

Look, Zhongli is great, his VA and gameplay is amazing. But he suffers from being distinctly male. The only male I'm down for is Dainsleif. Waifus all the way, and Ayaka is the cream of the crop. 
Genshin Impact aside, the turn is over. I'll get the day up as soon as possible. Please don't PM during rollover. 

[Steeldancer he/him]

LG79/AN10 Day 6: Conflict Among the Frost
"I don't even believe there any traitors in the first place. I think they were all just accidents," shouted one singer in protest to the current events. 
Moirin had been driven to a decision. They needed to root out the traitors now, or never. So she had gathered everyone into one spot, other than the children, who couldn't be corrupted by Odium anyway, and then started questioning everyone. 
Thane stood in line dutifully like everyone else. Except the crazy Artform next to him busy scribbling on the floor. 
"Do you mind?" asked Thane, but the artform was unperturbed, and continued to draw his insane scribbles on the ground. 
That was when there was a commotion farther down the line. Several singers jumped on Jalnor and started punching them over, and over. Moirin and several others rushed over, and Thane thought he saw a glint of metal briefly before one stabbed Jalnor. Blood bubbled on their lips, and they fell to the ground, dead. The murderers scattered, seeming to disappear. 
Thane was shocked. Had they really just done that in front of everyone? 
The entire group erupted into chaos again. People started trying to account for who had been next to them and who hadn't. 
Thane knew exactly what was going to happen now. 
It was going to be a battle. 
---
Oxblood Beagle was killed! They were a Workform Rebel!
Village Stash

Spoiler

Nimbleform Gem- 4
Workform Gem- 3
Mateform Gem- 3
Artform Gem- 4

Player List

Spoiler

Spoiler

1. Amber Vulture
2. Amethyst Scorpion
3. Azure Mouse
4. Charcoal Hyena Mateform Rebel
5. Chartreuse Penguin- Elrin Mateform Rebel
6. Coral Swan Dullform Rebel
7. Cream Tuatara
8. Emerald Falcon
9. Fuchsia Ostrich Dullform Rebel
10. Indigo Weasel
11. Ivory Dragonfly- Kethri
12. Magenta Albatross Dullform Rebel
13. Mauve Crocodile  Dullform Rebel
14. Melon Dingo Dullform Rebel
15. Mint Heron- Chashen
16. Onyx Flamingo
17. Opal Lion- Atticus
18. Oxblood Beagle- Jalnor Workform Rebel
19. Plum Rhinoceros- Edith

The day will end in 47.5 hours at 12:00 AM EDT, 8/5/21. 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

I'm so confused :|

Mouse

[Opal Lion]

Hmm.

So this is very interesting.

[Azure Mouse]

.............................

I..................

I submitted the action.

But it was ambiguous. 

It got denied.

I wondered if my action was too ambiguous, but I figured I'd wait for Steel to respond... but he wasn't on for another 7 hours.

I'd already forgotten about it at that point... by the time I realized, it was too late. Half an hour too late. 

I failed.

 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

3 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said:

I submitted the action.

Can you maybe... be more specific? Pretty please?  

[Cream Tuatara]

Is that Elvish? @Opal Lion

[Opal Lion]

6 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

Is that Elvish? @Opal Lion

Why would I know anything about art posted to the write-up 

Yes. Yes it is Sindarin.

[Azure Mouse]

So Azure Mouse grabbed Scholarform D1, as people have figured out. I assume they intended to manufacture an elim gem if one never got given to them, but then dropped off the face of the earth. So I assume Mouse's reins N3 and immediately attune the gem. (Vulture is likely telling the truth about Scholarform/Warform; only Warform had been researched.)  I researched Scholarform and then Stormform on N4, intending to take the form N5.

Steel added some flavor text to my GM PM about the voidspren looking at me from inside the gemstone. It was a very good line... and I, being the idiot for drama that I am, immediately responded with "I attune IT". Completely forgetting that I had also just created a gemstone that Steel had also mentioned in the PM.

I should have known? Why didn't I respond? I knew it might be a bad idea! I thought to myself "you should probably clarify that". But then I had to go and completely forget about it and not log into my anonymous account until two minutes before the cycle was posted.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Well N4 was the only time Beagle could have gotten Workform since there weren't any votes removed from them D4 and kills go before attuning forms, so it's either that or they were M-I and have just jumped.

[Opal Lion]

Right, let's look at the stakes.

Scenario A:

Spoiler

 

Assuming the worst case scenario: we're 6/5 now. Effectively 7/5 if we assume whoever had the mediationform gem (not Beagle) didn't attune it.

Since the game ends at parity or Village inability to resist, it is extremely unlikely Flamingo is Evil, in this scenario. Flamingo being Evil would put us 6/6, meaning an Elim CFD or hammer would force a no lynch, and we lose tonight. So the game would already be lost anyway, and Steel would, by right, call it.

A. Assuming that Mouse is truthful about still being Village, killing Mouse guarantees we lose right now. We kill Mouse, we go 6/5, and Elim kill tonight puts us 5/5. We lose. (Unless a Villager happens to have and attune Mediationform.)

B. Assuming that Mouse is lying about still being Village, we're 6/6 now. (Actually 5/6, but thanks Flamingo.) In other words, we would have lost anyway. So this is not possible.

TBH, I don't actually see many paths to victory in this scenario.

If we don't kill Mouse, we can't actually stop them from properly attuning tonight. Suppose we do lynch an Elim today, and go into the Night 7/4. Mouse attunes, bringing the Elims back up to 7/5. They kill Flamingo and win at parity.

The only way we can conceivably stave off an Elim win in this scenario is if some Villager with mediationform properly attunes tonight. But I don't actually know if we do have the last mediationform gem.

 

Scenario B:

Spoiler

This is a slightly better scenario but given how apocalyptic the write-up has been getting, I doubt that we are in this situation. We're 7/4 now. No way of knowing what Flamingo's allegiance is; Village Flamingo puts us 8/4; Evil Flamingo puts us 7/5. In my view, Evil Flamingo brings us more or less to Scenario A's analysis. If we mislynch today, we go 6/5 into the Night, Elims achieve parity and win unless someone has a mediationform gem. Especially so if Mouse attunes at Night.

Since Evil Flamingo analysis is pretty straightforward, let's look at 

A. Assuming that Mouse is truthful about still being Village, killing Mouse brings us 7/4. A regular kill at Night brings us to 6/4; a Flamingo kill at Night brings us to 5/4, so we have one more cycle in which to get this right. Note that in this variant, if Mouse attunes at Night, the Flamingo kill means we lose.

B. Assuming that Mouse is lying about still being Village, we are actually at 6/5. Killing Mouse puts us at 6/4. A Flamingo kill at Night brings us to 4/4, in which case we lose. If Flamingo is Evil, then we are actually at 6/6. So we would have lost anyway. The takeaway is that Mouse and Flamingo can't both be Evil I guess, which is nice  

In general, I think Flamingo is either Evil or the Elims are saving up for a Flamingo kill and/or hoping we mislynch Flamingo. We can't afford to get things wrong, but we already knew that anyway. I think we can be fairly certain that Mouse is still Village in most scenarios, and a Mouse lynch is counterproductive so I wouldn't advise that.

Unless someone else is our scholarform, e.g. Mouse claiming on behalf of an Elim teammate (only candidate left is Tuatara), I feel like this is more or less our situation.

We do need to ascertain if Malibu hopped. I think Malibu has no reason to, since that would only endanger them and risk giving us a free lynch, but I always believe in doing our homework anyway.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

39 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

If we don't kill Mouse, we can't actually stop them from properly attuning tonight. Suppose we do lynch an Elim today, and go into the Night 7/4. Mouse attunes, bringing the Elims back up to 7/5. They kill Flamingo and win at parity.

Can't we just like...

Hey @Azure Mouse? Can you just like, not betray the village and self-convert? Cause I think that'd be a sad elim victory and a sad village loss for everyone involved, and now that we know you're village (Mouse) because of numbers, as well as Flamingo, we can really work down the PoE and have a shot at winning. Thanks so much, sincerely the village.