Long Game 79/Anonymous Game 10: The Rhythm of Freedom

[Plum Rhinoceros]

6 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

With that in mind, what's your Elim teams, guys? Suppose we now defeasibly know Beagle/Falcon is Evil. Who are your new top suspects? Who would you lynch next, if we absolutely had to get it right?

I already put mine but I'll say it again in a smaller post so that people actually notice this time

I'm pretty sure there are no other five team options other than Falcon(/Beagle), Weasel, Scorpion, Heron, and Tuatara. 

Disregarding elim reads entirely- I'm village, Lion and Dragonfly are nearly confirmed village (that I'm sure we can agree on), Mouse and Flamingo are actually confirmed village (we'd have already lost if they were elim) and Vulture voted Beagle, putting them in the lead, five seconds before D4 ended. Dragonfly or someone still tied it up but that did happen.

I say there are no other options... technically I guess Vulture does work in place of somewhere else but I don't see them being an elim.

Edit: In answer to your other question, I do not care between these five. Literally that's where I'm at with this, which may not be a good idea but I honestly don't see how it can be anyone else. Heron though I think is more of a consensus read-wise.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Amber Vulture]

I think Mouse is village. Their theatrics drew a lot of unnecessary attention to themselves. It only really made sense as a play if they were evil Malibu, evil Warform, or evil certain to win next round. None of those are true, so I believe their story. 

Lion, Rhino, Dragonfly, and myself are all village. 

I'm currently banking on village Flamingo. If they try to break ranks, I'll kill them in a heartbeat, but for now, we need the extra votes. Either the elims refrain from NKing v!them to maintain the uncertainty but ensure they lose every vote, kill v!them and answer the question of their alignment, or keep e!them alive but bussing to deepwolf and we'll end in a coinflip round. Pretty much any way you slice it, it's fine if they remain alive. Also, Mat says they're mechanically confirmed village so that's cool. 

So that leaves the five elims of Falcon (body snatched), Heron (supported Beagle), Scorp (I'd target them last since they're the least suspicious suspicious person), Weasel (gem hoarder), and Tuatara (unexplained extra actions likely used to submit NKs). 

We know Falcon has no gem, so there can't be vote manip coming from them. That's why they're the best target today at lylo. So I'll leave my vote there. 

[Indigo Weasel]

Falcon oh look I get to do what I wanted to last cycle =) =P

[Opal Lion]

3 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Falcon oh look I get to do what I wanted to last cycle =) =P

Life offering presents I see  

[Plum Rhinoceros]

6 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

Also, Mat says they're mechanically confirmed village so that's cool. 

Rhino says smh

But Lion did actually say it depends, so it looks like I might be wrong in that regard? I do agree with you that we'll know soon enough and it's good to leave them alive regardless and my team prediction doesn't change if they're in consideration now. Mouse I think still is confirmed village for the moment.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

I guess it must be a four person Elim team since the analytics are so strong. I swear on my spren I’m not Elim. Target me last if nothing else. That can’t hurt.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

35 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

I guess it must be a four person Elim team since the analytics are so strong. I swear on my spren I’m not Elim. Target me last if nothing else. That can’t hurt.

Tbh the fact that, when I made my original guess, you drew attention to "I'm wrong and so probably other people in that list are wrong too" convinces me more otherwise.

And it can actually hurt if you're elim Meditationform. Which reminds me.

If you're a village Meditationform holding on to that gem (including if you haven't attuned it) idk PM Lion or something cause that'd be good to know going forward. Pretty much we're screwed if the elims have a Meditationform and five players. Edit: Other than Flamingo :P.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Opal Lion]

1 hour ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Rhino says smh

Anonymity never bothered me anyway

1 hour ago, Amber Vulture said:

We know Falcon has no gem, so there can't be vote manip coming from them. That's why they're the best target today at lylo. So I'll leave my vote there. 

Hey, if we're at 6/5, every Day is lylo  If Falcon is Malibu 2.0 and they kill one of us tonight, we're down to 5/4.

Load up on votes, bring your friends
It's fun to guess and to pretend
Lion's over-worked and self-assured
Oh no, I know who's Malibu

Hello, hello, hello, lylo
Hello, hello, hello, lylo
Hello, hello, hello, lylo
Hello, hello, hello

 

Anyway, I'm still working on my own reads. Work's been hell lately and while I've been able to squeeze time to actually try to be a helpful Villager, I need to clear some stuff before I can seriously revise my reads to accomodate the Beagle and Mouse data:

 

Villager

 

Spoiler

Ivory Dragonfly - WGG doesn't make sense, and Dragonfly has been helpful and Village, and actively seeking to gamesolve (PMs.) So Dragonfly continues to be my highest Village cred.

Mat Plum Rhino - WGG doesn't make too much sense, and Rhino has been helpful and active. Voting patterns a bit meh but last two cycles clinched it for me: Evil Rhino had no reason to so fiercely resist my freaking out about Vulture: a free chance to lynch Vulture instead of costing Evil Heron an extra life should be fine with him. Alternatively, Evil Rhino should be indifferent, since Village Vulture and Village Heron aren't his problem. The heatedness with which he resisted seems to me consistent with being a Villager instead.

Amber Vulture - Sorry bruh  Paranoia has passed and I accept we were entering last Day with different calculations. Elim Vulture has no reason to press this heavily/excessively for Heron's getting lynched. Evil Vulture would know there was no hammer and Heron would be getting grinched anyway. My D2 reasoning also continues to apply - Elim Vulture has no reason to get that personally involved in trying to get a mislynch on me. Any mislynch will do.

Villager Lite

Spoiler

Azure Mouse - Helpful and sharp, deflected the WGG issue with Rhino, and generally engaging with the game. Scholarform claim checks out, and I feel like it would be too convoluted for Mouse to be this upset in thread and PMs if they hadn't actually made the stormform mistake. So Village cred in my view for the moment. Mouse started the Heron train D5. Good enough for me. Heron was also trying to suggest an Elim got scholarform and sat on it. The readiness with which Heron was pushing Elim scholarform makes me think there aren't any.

Null+

Spoiler

Onyx Flamingo - Either one of the early Heron detectors, or trying to deflect from the sudden Beagle train. I haven't worked out which. Unclear to me why Flamingo is pulling back on Heron all of a sudden. Rhino and Vulture I think make good points for circumstantially considering Flamingo to be a Villager for the moment, subject to revision if need be. Verdict: lean Village a little, but not strongly. So OotL I kind of feel they're not likely to be Evil, but defeasibly so.

Amethyst Scorpion - Would like to hear more, especially on their reads, but don't ask me why I need to go look them up again, but my gut doesn't really lean Evil on them and sometimes gut do be that way. Maybe because Scorp had nothing much to gain from trying to clear Weasel D2 unless they were Evil together, and then that's kind of kayana. Could be PM reasons like Falcon but that's one heck of a limb to go out on D2.

Null

Spoiler

Cream Tuatara - I go back and forth. The post in which Tuatara sussed Beagle D4 reads very reactionary and hasty, as though Tuatara went about shopping for suspicions and ultimately found Beagle and Falcon. At the same time, Heron being a vote on the Tuatara D1 train doesn't make sense, since Tuatara was heading for the lynch before Ross swapped off. Perhaps Heron would've found some pretext anyway. We don't know. Heron's reluctance to actually go for Tuatara should certainly be noteworthy.

Lean Elim

Spoiler

Indigo Weasel - 50-50. Just not much to read there. Sused Tuatara when pressed to say a bit more; dunno if her views have since shifted. I think the biggest thing weird to me is that Beagle ignored Weasel and went for Falcon, really, out of the two players who could be a good activity pattern match. It could be because a mateform showing up would've led us to push both Scorp and Weasel, so too obvious that Beagle can't be another undeclared mateform. Or it could be that Weasel is Evil, IDK.

Strong Elim

Spoiler

Beagle-Falcon - Malibu delenda est.

Mint Heron - Responses continue to feel muted; my D5 reasons for initially voting Heron stand, which is that their voting patterns are fairly static, and the tone of their posts have sometimes seemed overly-defensive and preparing to be challenged about their votes, overly-concerned with how their votes are being perceived, which tends to be more reflective of an Elim than Village. Voting patterns continue to be bad, e.g. jumping off the Ross train D2. The readiness with which they jumped on Falcon's D5 Vulture wagon is also interesting, especially since they haven't been as vocal about Vulture, as though waiting for someone else to spearhead it. On the assumption (so this can be revised) that Beagle/Falcon is Malibu, Heron comes off looking very, very very bad on D4 to the point they have to be exceedingly unlucky as a Villager, or just Evil.

I'm happy to concede a lot of my current reads rely on:

A. Beagle-Falcon actually being Malibu and therefore Evil, and
B. Heron also being Evil.

So, suppose Falcon is lynched and shown to be Malibu. If I had only one shot and I had to lynch someone and get it absolutely right? Right now, I'd go for Heron.

I'm not making the full Heron case here: I've brought up some reasons I think Heron is Evil over the previous days. I know Heron has responded to some of them but they can't really change the fact their responses feel off to me, or disengaged, which is what a Villager would not be feeling D5 near rollover. They could be having a bad game, but when you have to say that to almost twenty different things off about Heron, something's not right anymore.

But here's an interesting piece of analysis. Suppose Beagle-Falcon is Malibu. What happens to the D4 voting?

It badly, badly implicates Heron, IMO:

Spoiler

Heron's voting patterns were bad before this but now we have Heron breaking a tie D4 against their main suspect, Tuatara, and going onto Hyena, a known Villager, and saving Beagle. Maybe Heron didn't factor in end-cycle volatility with me, Vulture, and Dragonfly all on. 

Quote

Oxblood Beagle(4): Tuatara, Hyena, Lion, Vulture
Charcoal Hyena(4): Dragonfly, Rhino, Heron, Beagle
Amber Vulture(1): Scorpion
Mint Heron(1): Flamingo
Cream Tuatara(2): Azure Mouse, Emerald Falcon

Final count. 

It ties at:

Quote

Beagle (3): Tuatara, Hyena, Dragonfly
Tuatara (3): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle
Hyena (3): Lion, Rhino, Vulture
Heron (1): Flamingo
Falcon (1): Heron
Vulture (1): Scorpion

Rhino and Dragonfly comment on this tie. Heron comes in as the tiebreaker, going for Hyena, and unvoting Falcon despite saying Tuatara is their main suspicion.

Then we have:

Quote

Beagle (3): Tuatara, Hyena, Dragonfly
Tuatara (3): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle
Hyena (4): Lion, Rhino, Vulture, Heron
Heron (1): Flamingo
Vulture (1): Scorpion

This would've safely lynched a Villager. Maybe they were okay with this. But Vulture is on, and Vulture flips out at being joined on a train by Heron:

Quote

Beagle (4): Tuatara, Hyena, Dragonfly, Vulture
Tuatara (3): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle
Hyena (3): Lion, Rhino, Vulture, Heron
Heron (1): Flamingo
Vulture (1): Scorpion

And then Beagle gets on to self-pres, around the same time. Possibly because Beagle knows 4-3 is volatile and a small margin.

Quote

Beagle (4): Tuatara, Hyena, Dragonfly, Vulture
Tuatara (2): Mouse, Falcon
Hyena (4): Lion, Rhino, Heron, Beagle
Heron (1): Flamingo
Vulture (1): Scorpion

Timestamp of Beagle and Vulture is both 2359hrs (oh drek I've just given away my timezone haven't I OH WELL NEVERMIND I'M TIRED CARRY ON.) Neither of them expected each other. Vulture would've ensured a Beagle lynch, Beagle a Hyena lynch. Vulture-Beagle not E-E (so useful, Lion!)   But instead, they tie.

To make matters worse, Dragonfly and I get in each other's way just trying to break the tie. And so the tie prevails.

At most one Elim on the Beagle train, which is not very helpful since that points to Tuatara but Tuatara is already a question mark. I find Heron's voting patterns way more suspect in this case, so it would be the next place I look at if we can confirm that Beagle was Malibu.

Thoughts? Comments? God, my TA is coming out again >>

Edited August 4, 2021 by Opal Lion
Removed extra space

[Amethyst Scorpion]

@Opal Lion, I don’t have strong reads of my own. I’m mostly going with what others have worked out. Heron seems fairly confirmed. Weasel is unfortunately likely, given my defense of them early, but that was basically as I implied: we were Mateform lovers and I just figured an Elim wasn’t likely going for Mateform early. I was probably wrong. Beyond that, I dunno. Tuatara, who I defended for their D1 post (but only for that specific instance) is a possibility as you said, but I’m not sure.

[Onyx Flamingo]

9 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

[OOC: Why, though?]

I thought that Heron's vote D4 was pretty ambivalent towards Beagle and more about protecting Tuatara (the whole reason I suspected Heron in the first place for that constant sussing but not voting). Seeing your analysis again, though, I realize I'm probably wrong. Just confused.

[Opal Lion]

1 hour ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

I thought that Heron's vote D4 was pretty ambivalent towards Beagle and more about protecting Tuatara (the whole reason I suspected Heron in the first place for that constant sussing but not voting). Seeing your analysis again, though, I realize I'm probably wrong. Just confused.

Hard to say. Think you're potentially right about protecting Tuatara and it's where I'd look after Heron flips and if the game continues. (If we are at perma lylo, the nice thing is that we just basically assume Heron is Evil for this scenario because if Heron isn't, there's no need to consider the Tuatara question.)

[Ivory Dragonfly]

We should have enough votes to win this exe unless there's two elim Meditationforms, but on every subsequent day it's entirely possible the elims will be able to hammer. There's a distinct possibility of an elim Workform who could turn a one vote village lead into a tie and cause a loss. Taking and using the three remaining Workform gems this cycle will make that less likely to happen and also leave open the possibility of the elims hammering the wrong person.

 

[Opal Lion]

1 hour ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

We should have enough votes to win this exe unless there's two elim Meditationforms, but on every subsequent day it's entirely possible the elims will be able to hammer. There's a distinct possibility of an elim Workform who could turn a one vote village lead into a tie and cause a loss. Taking and using the three remaining Workform gems this cycle will make that less likely to happen and also leave open the possibility of the elims hammering the wrong person.
 

Wise. Anyone hanging on to the workform gems or the spare mediationform gem may want to think of burning them tonight. 

[Steeldancer]

The day will end in about 3 hours. 

[Mint Heron]

Falcon, you are the mavset-im. I’ve been thinking about this for a few days now, and this is the only thing that makes any sense.

[Opal Lion]

[OOC: No word still from Falcon, I take it. Going to get some RP in now that I have been temporarily emancipated from work woes.]

The dreams gave him some respite the other night. 

Atticus did not know why. You did not question why the world was kind. You did not question when it gave you the scent of the earth after a highstorm, when it gave you the soft touch of falling snow. You did not question why it gave you rockbuds that bloomed.

You did not question, either, when it gave you blood or death.

Sometimes, you paid a price for light.

He scratched out the diagrams as he walked. Away from battle. Away from bloodshed. Atticus was no fighter. Or maybe it was a dream. He didn't know. "A storm's coming," he said, most unhelpfully. "Best you go inside now." This dream was less dark. Or maybe it was Atticus who was changing, Atticus who was becoming used to the dark dreams. In this one, he was a scholar in a world where ash fell like rain from the skies.L

He played games with his symbols, with his logic. He drew charts that analysed and tried to connect people. There were killers too, in that dream.

There was a flash of warmth, the laughing face of a brother, and then the dream slipped through his grasp like smoke.

A man drowning in the fountain, another holding him down. 

Atticus kept walking.

[Emerald Falcon]

What's a malibu

[Opal Lion]

Hi Falcon, you've got mail. Care to answer it? :eyes:

[Emerald Falcon]

I'd love to, but Falcon is unfortunately... indisposed at the moment

 

Hey @Azure Mouse. You get to choose how this ends, essentially. When at least. Odium was kind enough to inform me you're telling half the truth. But you're not the only one holding a Voidspren that doesn't belong.

As for me… well, Odium can't save Abaram now. Fortunately, I know someone who can. Ivory Dragonfly

[Steeldancer]

And the day is over and I can't get rid of this stupid quote box on mobile

Edited August 5, 2021 by Steeldancer
stupid quote box

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Villagers please don't convert. That'd be sad for everyone  

[Emerald Falcon]

1 minute ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

[REDACTED]

Turn's over. Shhhhhh

[Steeldancer]

LG79/AN10 Night 6: The Freedom of Choice
The fight lasted for several hours. The Warforms were particularly aggressive in their attempts to beat others up. Several singers had fled and hid. Thane stayed out of the fighting, but watched. 
And noticed something. One of the fighting singers, flickered? What in the world? Unless...
Dread entered into Thane's heart. Could it be? Was it even possible, after all this time they had wandered?
He sprinted between the brawling, shouting singers. The emotions were high enough that they had attracted angerspren and painspren. He double-teamed the suspicious singer, and their appearance flickered again. It was. 
Mavset-im. Fused. There had been a fused among them for all this time. Of course, the Fused that had run their town had been Mavset-im after all, this would be the same one. 
Abaram. 
"ABARAM!" Thane shouted. 
While most of the singers continued fighting among themselves, several closer to him stood up in shock. 
Abaram, for her part, giggled. Had she gone insane? It seemed so. 
Voidlight streamed out of Abaram, as she covered herself in illumination, so she looked like a small thunderclast. The sight of that got all of the rest of the singers to stop fighting and start running. 
Thane was unperturbed. It was just an illusion. He reached in, and ripped her out, and the illusion dissipated. It seemed to him that some of her skill had been lost when she lost her mind. 
Abaram laughed to the rhythm of spite, an odious rhythm. "You think you have the option of running from Odium? There is no escape. There is no freedom. You will see soon enough. You will have no choice but to turn back in shame. You will choose it yourselves. After all, it is easier to obey than to be free. There is no escape. There is no freedom..."
Moirin approached with a sword in hand. "Silence, Fused. We will not be bound by our ancestors any longer." She sang openly to the rhythm of Determination, and then beheaded Abaram. 
Her body slumped to the ground. 
The gathered singers were entirely silent, shocked by the series of events that had just occurred. Thane heard some speaking fearfully. Unfortunately, Abaram's speech had spoken directly to the fears that all of them had, that none of them had voiced. 
Was there really an escape from Odium?
Is there really such things as the freedom of choice for them?
Thane felt something in his heart stir. An emotion. A feeling. The sense that that would be chosen by them. They would choose whether they wanted freedom or not. 
And Thane had no idea what these people would choose. 
---
Emerald Falcon (12): Heron, Weasel, Flamingo, Dragonfly, Tuatara, Mouse, Scorpion, Rhino, Lion, Vulture
Ivory Dragonfly(1): Falcon
Emerald Falcon was exed! They were Mavset-im!
Player List

Spoiler

1. Amber Vulture
2. Amethyst Scorpion
3. Azure Mouse
4. Charcoal Hyena Mateform Rebel
5. Chartreuse Penguin- Elrin Mateform Rebel
6. Coral Swan Dullform Rebel
7. Cream Tuatara
8. Emerald Falcon Mavset-im
9. Fuchsia Ostrich Dullform Rebel
10. Indigo Weasel
11. Ivory Dragonfly- Kethri
12. Magenta Albatross Dullform Rebel
13. Mauve Crocodile  Dullform Rebel
14. Melon Dingo Dullform Rebel
15. Mint Heron- Chashen
16. Onyx Flamingo
17. Opal Lion- Atticus
18. Oxblood Beagle- Jalnor Workform Rebel
19. Plum Rhinoceros- Edith

The night will end in about 23 hours, at 12AM EDT, 8/6/21

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Ooh another Meditationform in sight that worries me

If you're village you're essential to us not losing. If you're elim we've likely already lost. I guess you probably should PM Lion/Dragonfly but if you'd rather remain secret that's fine.

[Opal Lion]

Good write-up, Steel.

Well, we've finally arrested Malibu. Good work, team  At least we've denied them a sweep.

10 players, 12 votes on Emerald Falcon. We do have two Mediationforms in play.

Edited to add: Ninjaed by Rhino.

Edited August 5, 2021 by Opal Lion