Mid-Range Game 49: Lode of Luthadel

[Liranil she/her]

10 minutes ago, Whysper said:

EDIT: Some people seem to be thinking that the Elim teams consider their opposing Elims as their main threat. No, Village is their main threat. They do have to worry about the other Elims also, but Village is the main threat for both teams.

But is the village really their biggest threat? Because the other elim team has a smaller pool of possible victims (since they can't hit themselves), so they have a better chance of actually getting an elim out. Plus, while the village also has a bigger pool of possible victims to choose from, the elim teams can control the narrative (*cough* Illwei Quinn Matrim?) and have more influence over the vote.

All that to say, I'm fine with killing Matrim now, but saying that that's the ideal way to do things... idk.

[+Whysper she/her]

13 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Whysper you are a godsend I love you :P.

Haha, thanks.  I didn't even get a chance to read the rest of the thread in detail, but I saw how people were arguing against killing a confirmed Elim and just had to step in right away.  

3 minutes ago, Liranil said:

But is the village really their biggest threat? Because the other elim team has a smaller pool of possible victims (since they can't hit themselves), so they have a better chance of actually getting an elim out. Plus, while the village also has a bigger pool of possible victims to choose from, the elim teams can control the narrative (*cough* Illwei Quinn Matrim?) and have more influence over the vote.

Yes, Village is the main threat at the beginning. There are many more Villagers. And Villagers are going after the other Elim team just as much. The problem is KP (killing power). The Elims don't want to lose KP too early. For the Elims, the other Elim team is still a source of KP, so they don't want them too weak just yet.

And there's no specific thing giving Elims a better chance of controlling the narrative. That's all dependent on the player. It's really a matter of strong players can control the narrative regardless of alignment. But with this game in particular, it is much harder for an Elim to control the narrative. They don't have a chat for coordination.

[Liranil she/her]

1 minute ago, Whysper said:

Yes, Village is the main threat at the beginning. There are many more Villagers. And Villagers are going after the other Elim team just as much. The problem is KP (killing power). The Elims don't want to lose KP too early. For the Elims, the other Elim team is still a source of KP, so they don't want them too weak just yet.

And there's no specific thing giving Elims a better chance of controlling the narrative. That's all dependent on the player. It's really a matter of strong players can control the narrative regardless of alignment. But with this game in particular, it is much harder for an Elim to control the narrative. They don't have a chat for coordination.

I get what you're saying, and I really don't want to get dragged into an argument. My main point is that the village currently has a 4/15 chance of hitting a Cett and a 3/15 chance of hitting a Straff with their exe (a 7/15 chance of hitting an elim, but the elim teams care more about themselves not getting hit), while the Cetts have a 4/12 (1/3) chance of hitting a Straff with their night kill and the Straffs have a 3/12 (1/4) chance of hitting the Cetts with their night kill. 

My point being, the Straffs have a higher chance of hitting a Cett than the village does, and Cetts have a higher chance of hitting a Straff than the village does, which makes them a greater threat to each other (especially since they have a part in the village vote). And you make a good point about killing power, but that killing power works against them, too.

[+Whysper she/her]

4 minutes ago, Liranil said:

My point being, the Straffs have a higher chance of hitting a Cett than the village does, and Cetts have a higher chance of hitting a Straff than the village does, which makes them a greater threat to each other (especially since they have a part in the village vote). And you make a good point about killing power, but that killing power works against them, too.

If they are working with this mindset and going after each other, that's even better for us. But that doesn't take away executing a sure Elim. We need to remove Elims as quickly as possible. We don't leave them around to cause harm. If they are going after each other first like you believe, then they would just move on to looking for the next Elim from the other team to kill off. That's good for us too.

[Mat he/him]

Philico burned brass.

Or well, not really. He didn't have any Allomantic abilities, what with being a Sleepless, but that hadn't stopped him from making some... questionable decisions. Such as locking the Hero of Ages up in a closet far from Luthadel and taking her place. A gambit, yes, but one that would be well worth it. After his drastic failure in Fallion's Tears, he thought he deserved some fun. And, well, after this was all over he would simply free her and be on his way. None the wiser.

Though that boy, the Watcher, Zane, had been trouble. He hadn't realized how thoroughly he had known Vin. That had made espionage difficult, and now there was nothing to do but show his face.

---

Hello.

Vin here :P.

As mentioned above, I'm currently soothing Quinn's vote, though that really doesn't do any good since she's not voting on me. It didn't help that literally everyone else voted Archer who is still alive xD But nonetheless it's come to this. I bet Striker's pretty satisfied with making me claim

I'm paranoid. Everyone who's played more than a few games with me knows that well- and when I see two cycles into the game that I've been actively participating in that not a single soul has read me as anything, I get really worried. And so I burned Atium C2.

And saw the kill on me. Illwei's kill, to be exact. But the unfortunate thing was- I had already used Steel C1. On Archer. Because as I said, I'm paranoid and he was a suspect for me. Turns out that was completely useless, and just left me in a position to be attacked. I couldn't redirect xD

This did let me take extra actions, though. So I targeted Striker with both Tin and Bronze, hoping that would clear up some form of my read on him because I was confused about reading him as village and elim both. Striker must have used Atium after that, and saw both my actions on him, and knew I was Vin. Hence the outing. It's... super unfortunate for me, but I guess I deserve it after GMing LordRuler!TJ who scanned dead villager after dead villager

And so I ask now: Please don't kill me. It will be the least helpful thing for you. My vote stays where it is, on the person I know attacked me, knowing that unless there's a village Lurcher I'll be dead by next cycle and probably even then because both teams would double-tap me.

Any questions? :P.

[---]

I would respond to Mat's post but all I have to say is that I read it and -

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And saw the kill on me. Illwei's kill, to be exact.

Yeah mat's a confirmed Elim lmao. no use interacting with him now lol.

Edited March 21, 2021 by Illwei

[Liranil she/her]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Philico burned brass.

Or well, not really. He didn't have any Allomantic abilities, what with being a Sleepless, but that hadn't stopped him from making some... questionable decisions. Such as locking the Hero of Ages up in a closet far from Luthadel and taking her place. A gambit, yes, but one that would be well worth it. After his drastic failure in Fallion's Tears, he thought he deserved some fun. And, well, after this was all over he would simply free her and be on his way. None the wiser.

Though that boy, the Watcher, Zane, had been trouble. He hadn't realized how thoroughly he had known Vin. That had made espionage difficult, and now there was nothing to do but show his face.

---

Hello.

Vin here :P.

As mentioned above, I'm currently soothing Quinn's vote, though that really doesn't do any good since she's not voting on me. It didn't help that literally everyone else voted Archer who is still alive xD But nonetheless it's come to this. I bet Striker's pretty satisfied with making me claim

I'm paranoid. Everyone who's played more than a few games with me knows that well- and when I see two cycles into the game that I've been actively participating in that not a single soul has read me as anything, I get really worried. And so I burned Atium C2.

And saw the kill on me. Illwei's kill, to be exact. But the unfortunate thing was- I had already used Steel C1. On Archer. Because as I said, I'm paranoid and he was a suspect for me. Turns out that was completely useless, and just left me in a position to be attacked. I couldn't redirect xD

This did let me take extra actions, though. So I targeted Striker with both Tin and Bronze, hoping that would clear up some form of my read on him because I was confused about reading him as village and elim both. Striker must have used Atium after that, and saw both my actions on him, and knew I was Vin. Hence the outing. It's... super unfortunate for me, but I guess I deserve it after GMing LordRuler!TJ who scanned dead villager after dead villager

And so I ask now: Please don't kill me. It will be the least helpful thing for you. My vote stays where it is, on the person I know attacked me, knowing that unless there's a village Lurcher I'll be dead by next cycle and probably even then because both teams would double-tap me.

Any questions? :P.

Yeah, so, I just reread the rules and atium can be used to see any actions placed on you, so it seems very reasonable that Striker would figure out that Matrim was Vin and through him under the bus. And it makes no sense to fake-claim Vin here since this means that the elims are going to go after Matrim even harder...

I also just looked back at the notes I wrote down about Striker's actions C1 (which I mentioned I was doing earlier), and Illwei voted on him at the beginning with no reason/as a poke vote. I know that Archer said that voting on someone would be a bad way to try and communicate that you were on their team (when we were talking about Stink), but that could very well be what happened there. 

Illwei

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I would respond to Mat's post but all I have to say is that I read it and -

Yeah mat's a confirmed Elim lmao. no use interacting with him now lol.

You'd say that any alignment, doesn't prove anything :P.

Oh and I guess Quinn actually did switch over to me, so my soothe is currently in effect.

[Ashbringer he/him]

... this actually relates to the point I was looking to make.

The two Elim teams - Straff and Cett - need to fully eliminate the other, in addition to the village, in order to win. The Village needs to fully eliminate both Elim teams. There's no parity this game.

The question is, do we want to press the advantage we have against Straff, or try and balance the two teams by killing off a Cett?

If we manage to kill off an entire team (Straff), then that's one less kill to worry about, but in the meantime Cett will definitely start going for strongly-read Villagers, and it really doesn't matter who Straff goes for because they'll see Cetts and Ventures the same way, which makes them probably more likely to hit Villagers. If we try to balance the two teams, they're more liable to actually go after each other, or at least we force Cett to go after Staff.

Straff!Illwei and Cett!Matrim makes the most sense. Matrim being Gneorndin also makes sense...

 

Aaaaaaand Mat claimed Vin and this is all going out the window.

Mat, you scanned Striker twice. What did he do?

[PizzaPower55 he/him]

'Tis obvious that I am Vin. 

 

__________________________

 

'Tis obvious that was an attempt to jest.

[---]

So welcome to what I would call a Quinn situation in that Mat's claim of seeing me attack him confirms him as an Elim for me, because I know that I couldn't have attacked him last night :P. So he's seeing how well it worked for striker and trying to use it on someone who he thinks is least likely to be on his side. Understandable, with how much I've pushed trying to kill him this cycle :P.

13 minutes ago, Liranil said:

And it makes no sense to fake-claim Vin here since this means that the elims are going to go after Matrim even harder...

It makes sense because it's a hail-mary last ditch attempt to survive another cycle. He would be dying to the vote if things progressed like this, so surviving the Elim kill isn't the problem for him, it's trying to get the village ML. Even if he thinks I'm on his team this could theoretically work out well for him if he doesn't get NKd.Real Vin please don't counterclaim, it's really not necessary and only makes you a target.

I don't want to believe you're a Cett, Liranil, because I've been thinking that they're probably the ones laying low, not getting involved, thinking him dead. perhaps someone who placed a vote near the beginning and then ignore? idk. haven't really thought much on it yet. idk. 

EDIT:

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

If we manage to kill off an entire team (Straff), then that's one less kill to worry about, but in the meantime Cett will definitely start going for strongly-read Villagers, and it really doesn't matter who Straff goes for because they'll see Cetts and Ventures the same way, which makes them probably more likely to hit Villagers. If we try to balance the two teams, they're more liable to actually go after each other, or at least we force Cett to go after Staff.

This is not a direct response, but I'm referencing Ash's post

People also seem to be operating under the assumption that I am a confirmed Straff? Yall keep talking like "do we kill a Straff or a Cett?" when that's not the question here, it's "do we kill a near confirmed Elim, or do we listen to the people trying to keep that Elim alive, and vote Illwei?" >>

Edited March 21, 2021 by Illwei

[Biplet she/her]

Hey @TJ Shade can burning atium reveal to the mistborn if they've been voted on for a NK? And exactly who voted on them?

[---]

4 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Hey @TJ Shade can burning atium reveal to the mistborn if they've been voted on for a NK? And exactly who voted on them?

That awkward moment when we've all just assumed :thonk:

Doesn't matter to me now if Striker was bluffing or not, because Mat saying that he saw me submit a kill solidifies him as an Elim for me, because either way, he's lying.

Edited March 21, 2021 by Illwei

[Biplet she/her]

Just now, Illwei said:

That awkward moment when we've all just assumed :thonk:

Lmao yeah I'm out here wondering if Striker died knowing exactly who voted on him or if he just knew someone voted on him

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Mat, you scanned Striker twice. What did he do?

Because he used Atium after me, he would have seen my scans. He used copper, and so my Seeker scan came up blank. The Tin one showed me that the other person Smoked was Illwei, but since Striker wouldn't have known that Illwei was for sure his teammate it would have just been a guess.

7 minutes ago, Illwei said:

So welcome to what I would call a Quinn situation in that Mat's claim of seeing me attack him confirms him as an Elim for me, because I know that I couldn't have attacked him last night :P. So he's seeing how well it worked for striker and trying to use it on someone who he thinks is least likely to be on his side. Understandable, with how much I've pushed trying to kill him this cycle :P.

You say that but it's not provable to say that. It's all you can say to try to avoid getting killed.

6 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Hey @TJ Shade can burning atium reveal to the mistborn if they've been voted on for a NK? And exactly who voted on them?

It can, because it revealed to me that Illwei attacked me.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Atium shows one person voting to kill the Mistborn, even if the kill eventually targets another player.

[---]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You say that but it's not provable to say that. It's all you can say to try to avoid getting killed.

Yeah I'm not here to argue with a a confirmed evil about what I did or didn't do yesterday lmao. I didn't, and this is a last ditch attempt to survive the vote. Mat is Gnrongadong and that's that lmao. If someone wants to move the conversation elsewhere I'd be all for that, otherwise I'm probably leaving for the rest of the cycle.

EDIT:

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It can, because it revealed to me that Illwei attacked me.

And if this its true, then it would appear that I was voting on you at 30 minutes before, wouldn't it? not that I attacked you.

Edited March 21, 2021 by Illwei

[PizzaPower55 he/him]

5 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Gnrongadong

Ah yes, Gnrongadong.

[Ashbringer he/him]

10 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Because he used Atium after me, he would have seen my scans. He used copper, and so my Seeker scan came up blank. The Tin one showed me that the other person Smoked was Illwei, but since Striker wouldn't have known that Illwei was for sure his teammate it would have just been a guess.

... I know you can't really answer this if it's true, but why on earth would Striker, knowing he's going to die (from you or from someone else, as he was attacked)... use Copper? At least Steel gives him a chance of surviving the kill.

Unless he rolled Copper as the initial metal and then used something else with atium.

 

Mat and Illwei is a 1 for 1, in any case. Illwei, you wouldn't happen to be Vin, would you? 

Edit: Am I the only one who bothered to learn the name Gneorndin....

Edited March 21, 2021 by Ashbringer

[Biplet she/her]

Okay, so, in a last ditch effort to stay alive, Striker claimed Vin. Knowing he'd probably die, he burned atium, and probably decided to take whoever was voting on him down with him. What I'm wondering is what are the odds Striker calls Mat out as an elim voting on him, when Mat is actually Vin?

Do we trust Striker? I don't know. I didn't think he was an elim until he died, because in LG74 I read him elim and he turned out village, and I had the same inclination this game. But, like I said, what are the odds? Striker knew something about Mat, and taking him out seems to be his final goal.

I worry Mat is trying to pull the same gambit as Striker: claim Vin to stay alive. I also worry about us exeing Vin.

Mat until we can get some more discussion going.

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... I know you can't really answer this if it's true, but why on earth would Striker, knowing he's going to die (from you or from someone else, as he was attacked)... use Copper? At least Steel gives him a chance of surviving the kill.

Unless he rolled Copper as the initial metal and then used something else with atium.

Well, yeah. Tin/Seeker doesn't differentiate between atium action and not atium action so I don't actually know when he used Copper. It makes the most sense for him to have rolled Copper originally, though he also could have rolled Steel C1 and not been able to use it again in consecutive cycles, making nulling my scan the next best thing. I don't know.

6 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Okay, so, in a last ditch effort to stay alive, Striker claimed Vin. Knowing he'd probably die, he burned atium, and probably decided to take whoever was voting on him down with him. What I'm wondering is what are the odds Striker calls Mat out as an elim voting on him, when Mat is actually Vin?

Striker did likely see whoever voted on him to kill him, along with my double-actions, and he must have thought that taking out Vin was more worthwhile that the random person who was assigned the kill, which makes sense.

[Liranil she/her]

I definitely do agree with Illwei that Vin shouldn't counter-claim: this could be an elaborate hoax to draw out Vin.

1 minute ago, Biplet said:

Okay, so, in a last ditch effort to stay alive, Striker claimed Vin. Knowing he'd probably die, he burned atium, and probably decided to take whoever was voting on him down with him. What I'm wondering is what are the odds Striker calls Mat out as an elim voting on him, when Mat is actually Vin?

Do we trust Striker? I don't know. I didn't think he was an elim until he died, because in LG74 I read him elim and he turned out village, and I had the same inclination this game. But, like I said, what are the odds? Striker knew something about Mat, and taking him out seems to be his final goal.

I worry Mat is trying to pull the same gambit as Striker: claim Vin to stay alive. I also worry about us exeing Vin.

I think Matrim's arguing that Striker used atium and saw that Mat had submitted two different actions against him (the bronze and the tin), and since Mistborns are the only ones who can use two metals, Striker new he was either Vin or Gnlkodnfn, so he called Matrim out so either his team or the village could eliminate him.

Either way, I think Matrim's gonna die sooner or later. What would one more cycle get him?

(Ninja'd by Matrim)

[---]

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Mat and Illwei is a 1 for 1, in any case. Illwei, you wouldn't happen to be Vin, would you?

it's not a 1 for 1? I'm not an Elim. I didn't submit a kill on Mat last cycle. Which is why I know he's an Elim.

8 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Edit: Am I the only one who bothered to learn the name Gneorndin....

scummy scum scum only Elims on Gnridagon's team would learn his name :P.

[Biplet she/her]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

and he must have thought that taking out Vin was more worthwhile that the random person who was assigned the kill, which makes sense.

He doesn't see who was assigned the kill, he sees a vote.

11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I know you can't really answer this if it's true, but why on earth would Striker, knowing he's going to die (from you or from someone else, as he was attacked)... use Copper? At least Steel gives him a chance of surviving the kill.

Agree. Why in the world would he not use steel to at least attempt a vote or action redirect? He might've even done this, but too many people were already voting on him. Striker knew he was as good as dead. Copper would've done nothing.

1 minute ago, Liranil said:

I think Matrim's arguing that Striker used atium and saw that Mat had submitted two different actions against him (the bronze and the tin)

Ohhhhh okay. Thank you!

12 minutes ago, PizzaPower55 said:

Gnrongadong.

This looks like good morning backwards. Gninorm doog

[---]

3 minutes ago, Liranil said:

Either way, I think Matrim's gonna die sooner or later. What would one more cycle get him?

Just saw this bit

No. Where's Whysper to back me up here >> you don't just leave an Elim alive. And He's an Elim. He's not Vin.