Long Game 69: The Politics of the Passions

[Ashbringer he/him]

Yeah, it likely solves one problem: the Elim could have used Violence to get 2 kills. That would explain why we still don't know who killed Lotus (or tried to kill Pyro or Illwei), unless it was an inactive Sart.

In that case, hunting for N3 actions is still helpful.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Either this is a really convoluted gambit, or Ash is cleared village now. Good job, Ash.

Immediate implications: 

Suspects: Elkanah, Illwei(?), Kynedath, Silberfarben.

Kynedath was only cleared because of the RB, and Illwei, while being somewhat cleared by other actions, was only really cleared because of the XP logic. 

Really hope Elkanah gets on quick.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I believe roleblocks still stop the Elim kill. But it seems more likely now that XP could have done the kill since she was protected by Survival. (Depends how Survival and roleblocks interact.)

[Illwei]

Yeah, did anyone ever get an answer concerning order of actions?

[Kynedath]

Wait, why is Ash cleared now?

I used Survival on Silber last night. I was hoping to get protection because I like protection, but I got survival instead. I used it on silber because I still don't fully trust them.

Umm, I'm real tired and I just got off work, so someone please ping me in like . . . 10 hours and I'll see if I can make a post.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Because I asked/revealed that the Elim kill can be used in conjunction with Passions, which Elim!Me would have no desire to reveal at this time as everyone seemed to just assume you couldn’t do that.

Storms, maybe the Elims didn’t even know and I just told them all. Who knows.

[Illwei]

6 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

or Ash is cleared village now.

4 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Because I asked/revealed that the Elim kill can be used in conjunction with Passions, which Elim!Me would have no desire to reveal at this time as everyone seemed to just assume you couldn’t do that.

I mean, maybe my trust bar is too high, but I don't think that clears Ash? at least, Ash isn't cleared in my eyes.

Personally I think that telling us this helps the Elims more? I think that it supports the "3 elim team" idea that Elk and Ash have been pushing, which beneficial to the Elims. I think there are two left, not one, or at the least we should be treating it as such.

[Kynedath]

I agree with Illwei, a four elim team makes so much more sense to me, the numbers line up better, three seems underpowered to me. It's only 20%.

[Elkanah he/him]

Sorry sorry sorry

I have things. It looks like I don't remember anything else so here is what actually happened last night turn. I got Narcotics (Yes!) that gave me teamwork targeting Ashbringer... right. 

I then was told I saw Ashbringer targeting Pyro.

Hence I don't know what else targeted Pyro, because I never was targeting him. I messaged Zillah to see if she just wanted to change my target to Pyro and  tell me anyone else who targeted him, but the consensus now is I just had a new power for a turn where I saw the targeter instead of the targeted. 

15 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

PROBLEM:

Zillah just answered my PM question.

Elims can execute the kill and use a Passion during the same turn.

...

Rust and Ruin.

Hold it for now, Pyro. This just got a whole lot more difficult.

Aaaaaaand so it doesn't especially matter anyway. cool. All that matters is I didn't lie this time.

Pyro, if your reveal is especially relevant still, then go for it. Sorry for making you all wait.

 

 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

7 hours ago, Illwei said:

I mean, maybe my trust bar is too high, but I don't think that clears Ash? at least, Ash isn't cleared in my eyes.

Personally I think that telling us this helps the Elims more? I think that it supports the "3 elim team" idea that Elk and Ash have been pushing, which beneficial to the Elims. I think there are two left, not one, or at the least we should be treating it as such.

The reason it clears ash is that if this wasn't pointed out, we were making so many wrong assumptions, we would have FOR SURE lost. EDIT: Unless we got very lucky, I guess.

1 hour ago, Kynedath said:

I agree with Illwei, a four elim team makes so much more sense to me, the numbers line up better, three seems underpowered to me. It's only 20%.

Yeah, okay, Kynedath is probably an elim. This sets me off SO HARD.

As for my reveal, well, I'll start working on the post. Have to rework all the implications...

Edited September 12, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Double posting since I typed this up separately, thinking someone else would post, and I don't want to redo the spoilers. Sorry. So here we go:

@Zillah, can you confirm what Elkanah has said?

Either way, my secret....

You ready?

Spoiler

Spoiler

Spoiler

Last night, I was...

Spoiler

NOTHING! IT WAS A BLUFF!

...

Spoiler

Okay, I wish that was the case. The truth is that I was coerced into picking from the Illegal table, meaning I have a 40% chance of getting removed from the game tonight.

The reason I was waiting for actions to get back was to see if any villager got narcotics and was REALLY, REALLY unlucky. As it is, as the only person who has claimed illegal actions AND has claimed to be CAUGHT, that makes this look an awful lot like an elim. Originally, I thought this implicated two elims, with one of them being ash/elkanah, but that ran into some problems.

One, that meant Ash, if an elim, would have had to target me with coercion, then immediately claimed their action as also targeting me, knowing that I would claim coercion. This is a gambit that, while possible, isn't something I would necessarily associate with Ash, as its payoff only really works if they knew I was going to teamworked.

Two, if Elkanah was an elim, it meant that they'd have to either carried out the coercion themselves and tried to implicate ash (while also putting themselves at risk, when I had already expressed suspicion for them), or their teammate had carried it out, while they had either not heard, or had also attempted to throw ash under suspicion. It was possible they were both elims, but that makes Elk's earlier pushes on ash(they did that, right? Someone should check) weird. Even if that were the case it still runs into the next problem.

Three, this means that the elim team's been dipping into illegals. This solves the Lotus mystery, with the elims placing a second kill on me, as someone who had just gone to not-suspicious, and had been talking a lot all of a sudden. This was actually my plan, since Lotus was a strong suspect at the time. Regardless, with two elims, that seems kind of unnecessarily risky? Idk, just is kinda weird.

So this is why I waited, seeing if I could chalk this up to Narcotics somehow, solving these problems. HOWEVER, with this new information, I think that paints a different picture. A single, isolated elim, desperately dipping into illegals to try and get another kill. Someone who is taking a big risk, because they feel they have no other choice. Someone who's been under suspicion NOW, as if they were before, they would've started firing off illegals THEN, and would be less likely to do so now. I introduce you to...

 

 

 

 

KYNEDATH.

PS: If I sound weird, that's because I just took my new-ish medication, as I take it in the morning, and so it's just kicked in. WHEEE!!! STIMULANTS!!!

[Ashbringer he/him]

That makes... a lot of sense. I don’t know if it means Kynedath specifically but the fact XP could survival and Kill plus Kyne’s general wierdness is enough for me to jump on it. (Silberfarben). And we need a N3 action from Kyne, too.

However, I’m kinda weirded out by this. Elkanah claims the GM made a mistake, which, while feasible and hard to make up, lets him nicely contort around Pyro’s coercing. And the coersion itself fits an Elim attempt to hit multiple birds with multiple stones, it could also be a really big bluff. It’s probably not considering everything, but... hmm. It brings back memories.

I’m going to go on a limb and say Elk’s target-scan-teamwork-drug-thing didn’t see me targeting Sart along with Pyro, so I didn’t use the Elim kill.

[Illwei]

So I'm still suspicious on Ash and Elk a bit, but Elk is now mostly because I don't trust that scenario.

I lied. Lknow that this is going to look bad, I do, but I- I decided to dip my toes into Table 3, and...indeed...I did get Narcotics, Pyro. That Coercion was me. Yeah. Uh. Yeah.

I was planning on saying this after Elkanah came back and Told everyone that I was at Pyro's with Ash, because I wanted to see if he did use that action (which is why, Pyro, I asked you to not reveal it yet.)  - Which became irrelevant after the whole "Elims can use a passion and a kill" thing was revealed...

Anyways, something that still doesn't sit right with me, but I may be looking at things that aren't there :P., is this:

On 9/10/2020 at 9:35 PM, Elkanah said:

unless someone else wants to claim to have protected him?

Which at the time I saw as either him saying that he saw me at pyro's (and was waiting for me to come out), or that he was leaving it open for him to claim to have seen someone else at Pyro's if someone else claimed to have been at Pyro's. which, if he only saw ash, then why would he ask this at all?

anyways-

I’m going to vote on Kynedath. (but also I don't think I understand Pyro's reasoning.)
I think there are two Elims. You guys (Couch Elk Couch) seem weirdly confident in 1 elim imo. previously people argued/believed that Kyne is most likely an elim if there is two more elims (which is kind of irrelevant now because that reasoning doesn't hold up.). Here’s my thoughts: If there are two more elims, then we’re at 4-2, and the elims basically need only 1 mislynch to win. If kyne is an elim with someone else, then I think it’s safe to lynch him. If he’s not an elim, then most likely there’s only 1 elim and it will be easier to narrow it down. If he is an elim...well, then there’s only one more elim and it’ll be easier to narrow it down. 

[Elkanah he/him]

47 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

That makes... a lot of sense. I don’t know if it means Kynedath specifically but the fact XP could survival and Kill plus Kyne’s general wierdness is enough for me to jump on it. (Silberfarben). And we need a N3 action from Kyne, too.

However, I’m kinda weirded out by this. Elkanah claims the GM made a mistake, which, while feasible and hard to make up, lets him nicely contort around Pyro’s coercing. And the coersion itself fits an Elim attempt to hit multiple birds with multiple stones, it could also be a really big bluff. It’s probably not considering everything, but... hmm. It brings back memories.

I’m going to go on a limb and say Elk’s target-scan-teamwork-drug-thing didn’t see me targeting Sart along with Pyro, so I didn’t use the Elim kill.

I enjoy this interaction so much and I wouldn't be upset if Zillah never confirmed in thread. (please let the dead doc at least know though.) I am not nearly brave enough to think this up as an elim, but now I might have to try it if it comes up again. @Zillah

List of things I learned this game that I should claim the next time I'm an elim

Spoiler

1. clear a villager day 2
2. claim the GM missed something so my ability isn't on the list to get away from suspicion
3.  

Oh, that last line is also really interesting. No I didn't see you target Sart, but I would guess that I would have. I have no way of confirming it, so maybe my ability was better than I thought.

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

NOTHING! IT WAS A BLUFF!

I knew it!!!

Oh wait there was more 

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Double posting since I typed this up separately, thinking someone else would post, and I don't want to redo the spoilers. Sorry. So here we go:

@Zillah, can you confirm what Elkanah has said?

Either way, my secret....

You ready?

  Hide contents

  Hide contents

  Hide contents

Last night, I was...

  Hide contents

NOTHING! IT WAS A BLUFF!

...

  Hide contents

Okay, I wish that was the case. The truth is that I was coerced into picking from the Illegal table, meaning I have a 40% chance of getting removed from the game tonight.

The reason I was waiting for actions to get back was to see if any villager got narcotics and was REALLY, REALLY unlucky. As it is, as the only person who has claimed illegal actions AND has claimed to be CAUGHT, that makes this look an awful lot like an elim. Originally, I thought this implicated two elims, with one of them being ash/elkanah, but that ran into some problems.

One, that meant Ash, if an elim, would have had to target me with coercion, then immediately claimed their action as also targeting me, knowing that I would claim coercion. This is a gambit that, while possible, isn't something I would necessarily associate with Ash, as its payoff only really works if they knew I was going to teamworked.

Two, if Elkanah was an elim, it meant that they'd have to either carried out the coercion themselves and tried to implicate ash (while also putting themselves at risk, when I had already expressed suspicion for them), or their teammate had carried it out, while they had either not heard, or had also attempted to throw ash under suspicion. It was possible they were both elims, but that makes Elk's earlier pushes on ash(they did that, right? Someone should check) weird. Even if that were the case it still runs into the next problem.

Three, this means that the elim team's been dipping into illegals. This solves the Lotus mystery, with the elims placing a second kill on me, as someone who had just gone to not-suspicious, and had been talking a lot all of a sudden. This was actually my plan, since Lotus was a strong suspect at the time. Regardless, with two elims, that seems kind of unnecessarily risky? Idk, just is kinda weird.

So this is why I waited, seeing if I could chalk this up to Narcotics somehow, solving these problems. HOWEVER, with this new information, I think that paints a different picture. A single, isolated elim, desperately dipping into illegals to try and get another kill. Someone who is taking a big risk, because they feel they have no other choice. Someone who's been under suspicion NOW, as if they were before, they would've started firing off illegals THEN, and would be less likely to do so now. I introduce you to...

 

 

 

 

KYNEDATH.

PS: If I sound weird, that's because I just took my new-ish medication, as I take it in the morning, and so it's just kicked in. WHEEE!!! STIMULANTS!!!

I didn't think it sounded weird. It sounded excited and I enjoyed it.

It's super interesting that coercion gets around protection. So they could have tried to kill you the normal way, but because they didn't they have a better chance of killing you.

It's unfortunate that getting caught doesn't reset your probability of getting caught but I can see the reasons for rulings either way. Otherwise people like me would never have stopped doing illegal things.

I'm so glad we agree. I really think Kynedath is the last elim with an outside chance of it being Silberfarben.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

...If Illwei did Narc me Imma officially blame the dice if the elims win. I've had absolutely awful luck ever since getting plannning.

[Ashbringer he/him]

23 minutes ago, Illwei said:

So I'm still suspicious on Ash and Elk a bit, but Elk is now mostly because I don't trust that scenario.

I lied. Lknow that this is going to look bad, I do, but I- I decided to dip my toes into Table 3, and...indeed...I did get Narcotics, Pyro. That Coercion was me. Yeah. Uh. Yeah.

I was planning on saying this after Elkanah came back and Told everyone that I was at Pyro's with Ash, because I wanted to see if he did use that action (which is why, Pyro, I asked you to not reveal it yet.)  - Which became irrelevant after the whole "Elims can use a passion and a kill" thing was revealed...

...

If you're telling the truth, then this is one of the unluckiest games we have. 

But I don't believe you. This makes no sense: you roll probably the unluckiest Narcotics roll possible besides outright killing someone, you know that Pyro had to have noticed, you lie and say you used Survival instead, and now that we know that the coercion happened now you come forward. And you're plan was only to come forward when Elkanah called you out, knowing Pyro would immediately jump on it?

I'm keeping my vote on Kynedath. The only explanation for this behavior that makes sense to my brain is trying to divide the lynch between you and him. Which means if Kynedath dies and isn't the last Elim I know exactly who I'm going for.

Speaking of which, @Lord_Silberfarben. Vote Kynedath. If Illwei(?) and Kynedath try to hammer, Elk, Pyro, and I should be able to hold it but I'd rather avoid any nasty surprises.

[Illwei]

12 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

But I don't believe you. This makes no sense: you roll probably the unluckiest Narcotics roll possible besides outright killing someone, you know that Pyro had to have noticed, you lie and say you used Survival instead, and now that we know that the coercion happened now you come forward. And you're plan was only to come forward when Elkanah called you out, knowing Pyro would immediately jump on it?

I'm keeping my vote on Kynedath. The only explanation for this behavior that makes sense to my brain is trying to divide the lynch between you and him. Which means if Kynedath dies and isn't the last Elim I know exactly who I'm going for.

?

(a) yeah, it was unlucky. 
(b) yeah, I know pyro noticed, which is why I immediately wished I had a PM with him to explain things :P. Which is why I told him not to come out with what happened, as I wanted to be able to claim it before he came out with it, but after Elk came back with certainty that Ash was the only person to visit pyro, as that would be wrong. 
(c) yeah, my plan was to come forward after Elk called me out on it, proving he did get teamwork-pyro, but the plan kind of, er, changed, when Elk explained things, as he now wouldn't have seen me at pyro's, therefore there was no reason for me to withhold that information. To clarify, I was going to explain before Pyro came out and said he was coerced. 

(d) I do not wish to split the vote. I am all for lynching Kyne. but if there turns out to be more than 1 elim, you're currently next on my list.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

...You know, this actually seems very Illwei: a pretty good plan that had to change, then Illwei gets confused about what to do, and does suspicious things.

But yeah, Kyne's probably an elim. I'm like 75% sure. 

Imagine if the last elim is actually Elk though. That would be hilarious. Or me, I guess, but I don't quite see how that would work.

[Elkanah he/him]

That would be so funny! I will take it as a compliment that you think I could pull something like this

I'm almost disappointed that it isn't me! 

[Illwei]

13 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Or me, I guess, but I don't quite see how that would work.

Imagine playing a game and then finding out at the end that you're actually the last elim :P.

Also, wow. lots of people viewing this rn. or maybe it was just devotary's name being long :P.

Edited September 12, 2020 by Illwei

[Kynedath]

Wait hold on, you guys are lynching me because I said that I think there are 4 elims instead of three? I'm so confused now!

[Illwei]

7 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

Wait hold on, you guys are lynching me because I said that I think there are 4 elims instead of three? I'm so confused now!

As I said, I honestly don't understand Pyro and Ash's reasoning, But I already explained mine. Do my posts make sense to no one? ;-;

[Kynedath]

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

As I said, I honestly don't understand Pyro and Ash's reasoning, But I already explained mine. Do my posts make sense to no one? ;-;

Well you said that it would be okay to lynch me because if there are two I'm probably one, and if there's one then it's easier to narrow it down afterwards if I'm not. But you never really gave reasoning as to why I'm probably an elim in the first scenario.

Edited September 12, 2020 by Kynedath

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

Well you said that it would be okay to lynch me because if there are two I'm probably one, and if there's one then it's easier to narrow it down afterwards if I'm not. But you never really gave reasoning as to why I'm probably an elim in the first scenario.

Well, while you're here, what did you do N3? And do you have any evidence of your Survival N4?

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

We're lynching you because, although you've lain low a lot of the game when people thought you were clear, I have spotted you browsing the current thread multiple times, and now, when you're under suspicion, you just pop up? Kinda weird. There's a bunch of other stuff too, from previous cycles, but this is the one that's really getting me rn. I mean, earlier I tagged you repeatedly, trying to get you to contribute to the game. But now, without prompting, you suddenly actually start responding to the thread? Very sus.