Mid-Range Game 32: The Blight Encroaches

[Karnatheon he/him]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

EDIT:

OH! OH OH OH! I HAVE A LEAD!

There were a total of 5 Warriors of Fal Dara in the beginning. With the deaths of Snip, Kidpen and Bard, it's now just two! The other one is Mark, who's claimed in thread already. I had completely forgotten about the doc, if I'm honest, and neglected it the last couple turns, but I just checked it and found him asking if I'm evil. I'm not, so I figured I should bring this info out here to see what people think. Is it likely there's an elim among the Fal Dara Warriors? If so, then it's most definitely him.

I think it's likely one of the two of you is evil, yes. 

Quote

EDIT2:

Ah, I just read Fura's last post of the previous turn. So if I understand it correctly, Drought sorta weakly defended BR from Bard and he was the last person to vote for BR? Not exactly strong reasoning if I'm honest, but I intend to look over all his posts and see if I can glean anything else. IIRC, I was a bit suspicious of Mark for reasons in the beginning already, so I'll look over his stuff too. HH is basically cleared since I don't think the elims could arrange a WGG in this game, CadCom, Fura and Karn all look good because of their votes on BR (and in the case of the last two I've been reading them as village consistently, anyway), and Rath looks village as well due to BR voting on him earlier. Of Steel, randuir, Stink!Joe, Mr Doctor and Sart... I'm honestly not sure. My gut didn't like most of them in the beginning, minus Stink!Joe and Sart because I can't remember a thing they've said or done.

The creature can only attack good players, the elims have no choice in the matter. So HH is 100% cleared.

Honestly, the elim kill pattern is really throwing me off here. They've in pretty much every case killed a relative inactive, which seems like the exact opposite of what I would do in their shoes. That makes it really hard to determine their motivations.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

I see you lurking, Mark... ; )

I am on mobile, so most of my Drought analysis will be from memory, but hear it goes.

Firstly, I have been suspicious of Drought for a while. When he post game related posts (of which I can only remember 2), they just sound off to me.  The first post he made seemed really overeager about killing elims.

The second post he made was the first game related post.  In it, he defended BR and me. Granted, the defence of BR was minimal, but an elim isnt going to go over the top explaining why you shouldn't lynch the other elim.  There have been other gut reads and lynches, but Drought didnt ask for more details about any of them... Only BR.

His defence of me was a bit strange as well.  He said the lynch against me doesn't "feel" right.  Other than Devotary, we have seen the elims go after none of overly active players. This combined with me pushing for his lynch previously, I can 100% see elim!drought doing this.

Drought has had a post per turn count of 1.25. An average of more than 1, and yet has provided absolutely no analysis or help to the village.

Randuir said that the person in his doc hasnt read WoT. Drought hasnt read WoT. Acknowledging this publically doesn't clear him to me as he was on my suspect list before he claimed.

Lastly, randuir said that the elim in the doc was inactive the first couple turns... guess who this matches the posting pattern of? Droughbringer!

Those are my reasons. Again, on mobile, so I may have missed something, but I think that I havent.

[Amanuensis he/him]

24 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I see you lurking, Mark... ; )

I am on mobile, so most of my Drought analysis will be from memory, but hear it goes.

Firstly, I have been suspicious of Drought for a while. When he post game related posts (of which I can only remember 2), they just sound off to me.  The first post he made seemed really overeager about killing elims.

The second post he made was the first game related post.  In it, he defended BR and me. Granted, the defence of BR was minimal, but an elim isnt going to go over the top explaining why you shouldn't lynch the other elim.  There have been other gut reads and lynches, but Drought didnt ask for more details about any of them... Only BR.

His defence of me was a bit strange as well.  He said the lynch against me doesn't "feel" right.  Other than Devotary, we have seen the elims go after none of overly active players. This combined with me pushing for his lynch previously, I can 100% see elim!drought doing this.

Drought has had a post per turn count of 1.25. An average of more than 1, and yet has provided absolutely no analysis or help to the village.

Randuir said that the person in his doc hasnt read WoT. Drought hasnt read WoT. Acknowledging this publically doesn't clear him to me as he was on my suspect list before he claimed.

Lastly, randuir said that the elim in the doc was inactive the first couple turns... guess who this matches the posting pattern of? Droughbringer!

Those are my reasons. Again, on mobile, so I may have missed something, but I think that I havent.

Alright. I've looked over some of Drought's posts and see where you're coming from. It feels kind of eh to use the WoT thing against him, but if he claimed in doc he was an elim that's not really anyone's fault but his own. @Droughtbringer, do you have anything to say about this?

31 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

I think it's likely one of the two of you is evil, yes. 

The creature can only attack good players, the elims have no choice in the matter. So HH is 100% cleared.

Honestly, the elim kill pattern is really throwing me off here. They've in pretty much every case killed a relative inactive, which seems like the exact opposite of what I would do in their shoes. That makes it really hard to determine their motivations.

Well I'm not evil, and personally I'd rather not lynch Mark for his role alone because wow is that a slippery slope. @Mark IV, want to do some analysis on me, maybe, and I'll do some on you? Would probably help the village get a read on us both, and if you're not an elim it would be nice not wasting time lynching you.

Ah okay, thanks for clarifying that. Don't suppose my lack of knowledge about the eliminator's capabilities is enough to clear me, is it? xD

[Karnatheon he/him]

BR also had a lot of confusion about the elim capabilities, at least in thread, and she was an elim. Hers may or not have been legitimate confusion, and same would apply to you. So ya, it isn't enough to clear you given the context of BR.

[Amanuensis he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

BR also had a lot of confusion about the elim capabilities, at least in thread, and she was an elim. Hers may or not have been legitimate confusion, and same would apply to you. So ya, it isn't enough to clear you given the context of BR.

Hah, dang. Was worth a shot. I bet she'll find it amusing that her behavior means I can't be cleared so easily. Guess I'll need to do it the old fashioned way

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

Fura's analysis on Drought is pretty convincing, if only because I have no real leads currently. Similarly, Aman's lead on Mark IV seems like it has some weight. Some, but not enough to lynch on. I'd like to see Drought respond before I vote or anything, but if he hasn't said anything within an hour or two of rollover, I'm voting on him.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

The reason we know there is an elim in the fielders doc is because there was no kill on the creature D4. This 100% confirms that there is an elim in there.  Randuir I am inclined to believe at the moment.

I there are a couple players I think may be a third elim, and Mark is one of them, not based purely on his role, however I am not ready to target him yet... and would like to hear from him (and the others) before I accuse them outright.

However, I don't want to target someone purely because they are in a doc, and I am a bit uncomfortable with the "my word against his" that Aman just did. Although they also suggested they do analysis at the same time si that is better.

BR wasnt in a doc, and we know someone is in the fielders doc. There are 2 more elims, and 2 more docs. I still think it likely that there will be an elim in Moiraine's circle, as that could cause some interesting elim strategies, and would make the village reluctant to target them.

[Karnatheon he/him]

So you think that elim!Randuir threw BR under the bus to gain our trust? What happened to Randuir being cleares?

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Ring said:

So you think that elim!Randuir threw BR under the bus to gain our trust? What happened to Randuir being cleares?

I assume you are talking to me? No I do t think that, but I rushed to clear Randuir before, so I am intentionally not clearing him 100% in my head until either drought flips elim, or I do more thorough analysis on him...

Again, don't disregard the fielder message. It just seems strange and unnecessary to me.

[Karnatheon he/him]

11 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I assume you are talking to me? No I do t think that, but I rushed to clear Randuir before, so I am intentionally not clearing him 100% in my head until either drought flips elim, or I do more thorough analysis on him...

Again, don't disregard the fielder message. It just seems strange and unnecessary to me.

Yes I was, sorry for not quoting you to be clear about it. I agree we shouldn't clear anyone too quickly, and that the fielder message is odd. I feel like Randuir would be smart enough not to write that in an attempt to make us more likely to believe them though. I'm honestly not sure what to think about it. It doesn't feel like anyone would have a reason to write it, village or elim.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

5 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

Yes I was, sorry for not quoting you to be clear about it. I agree we shouldn't clear anyone too quickly, and that the fielder message is odd. I feel like Randuir would be smart enough not to write that in an attempt to make us more likely to believe them though. I'm honestly not sure what to think about it. It doesn't feel like anyone would have a reason to write it, village or elim.

Hmm... I disagree... there are a couple intents the message could be:

1. It could genuinely be telling the truth. They are an elim, are not Randuir, and are sorry about what they did to Ark. However, if this is the case, this would make me suspicious of new players, as they may not realize that Ark can technically still read the doc, and you know... apologising unnecisarily... this would make me suspicious of Karn and myself... however I havent apologised for something since my first game, so I will have to clear myself. : P
2. It is Randuir trying to provide credibility to his statement that there is another player in the doc, when it is only him.  This I also don't find impossible... but there are clues in the message as to who wrote it, and I don't have time to analyze those yet...

There are a couple other possibilities, but those are the big 2 I think...

(Or someone trying to make it look like one of those 2)

[Mark IV he/him]

Quote

You implied that one of these gut reads was on BR, but you don't state the other. I could be wrong, but generally gut reads are suspicions without evidence. So I don't know what you are trying to say. What if everyone didn't vote because they were unsure? We would never have a D1 lynch. Maybe you just don't like D1 lynches either?

@Furamirionind
Yeah, my other suspicion was Randuir. It was very insubstantial at the time. I'd rather not have voted at the time because it was already D2. I'd have preferred to have had some iota of suggestive evidence against anyone I'd vote for. So, yeah. 

 

So far, from my reading of D4 and N4, I feel Randuir is (very likely) Village. On his tail (and probably more cleared) is CadCom. 
Randuir was the first person to vote for BR and was the reason BR was lynched. While this could have been him bussing BR, I'm willing to discount that possibility. Specifically because his claim about the other person in the Fielder's Doc seems like it would have been too well thought out, had it been Elim!Randuir that was posting. I'm not saying no one's capable of this, but that it's too much of an IKYK sort of thing. So, yeah. 
I feel CadCom's even more cleared because I don't see an elim being the second vote on Balthamel. 

DroughtBringer. Reading through D4 and N4, I was getting increasingly convinced that Drought might be elim. Part of it is his vote being the last one on BR's lynch. On its own its NAI. Even I did that with one of the lynches (Snip's, I think?). However, combined wtih what Fura and a few other have posted, I'm inclined to believe this is our best lead right now (well, except for that other Fielder, but idk who that might really be). I can't remember the other reasons right now. I am however, confident in the opinion of my past self.

 

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

EDIT:

OH! OH OH OH! I HAVE A LEAD!

There were a total of 5 Warriors of Fal Dara in the beginning. With the deaths of Snip, Kidpen and Bard, it's now just two! The other one is Mark, who's claimed in thread already. I had completely forgotten about the doc, if I'm honest, and neglected it the last couple turns, but I just checked it and found him asking if I'm evil. I'm not, so I figured I should bring this info out here to see what people think. Is it likely there's an elim among the Fal Dara Warriors? If so, then it's most definitely him.

Regarding this, I get the logic here (and I don't have a problem with it), but the tone of this post is not what I've come to expect of Aman. Specifically the way the last two sentences are phrased. I've never seen that kind of phrasing from you, so yeah. Perhaps I can point out what I'm not happy with when I'm less sleepy. (It just seems very unprofessional, so to speak)

It's currently 2 am, and it is also the third turn since I last posted. I'd like to apologise for my inactivity, but I had exams this weekend. So, yeah. I'm sorry about the quality of this post, but I had to get something out, and I didn't want it to be a one-liner. 

Edit: 
 

1 hour ago, Ookla of the East said:

Fura's analysis on Drought is pretty convincing, if only because I have no real leads currently. Similarly, Aman's lead on Mark IV seems like it has some weight. Some, but not enough to lynch on. I'd like to see Drought respond before I vote or anything, but if he hasn't said anything within an hour or two of rollover, I'm voting on him.

Yeah. Problem is, the same logic can be applied backward, meaning Aman could also be an elim. Which is why I don't find this line of reasoning very useful. 

Also, note that I haven't seen an hour's worth of posts because I was writing this one very slowly and never refreshed the tab.

Edit 2: But now I've seen them.
 

Edited December 16, 2018 by Mark IV

[Steeldancer he/him]

12 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Though I don't know what you mean by "balefire" if you have any questions or if there is any way to help speed you up with reading the thread, let us know, and someone will say something. (but if it isn't from me, don't trust them )

Ya know, Balefire? Wipes things from existence? Would be a useful ability to have. And that’s unfortunate that only Rand is our defense against the critters. If Rand dies, that could leave multiple villager murderers just sitting there picking  us off. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Looks like Mark had 20 posts. I'm going to post links to them here as I comb through them for clues so that people can look over them quickly and formulate their own opinions.

I completely missed this about a medical emergency. I'm sorry to hear about it, bud, and glad to hear it's alright now. Not going to bother reading into him having little thoughts after D1. Would be hypocritical as I've been even less involved this game. For the most part I'm ranking his entrance as NAI.

Ooo. Direct interaction with BR. He accepts that she could be confused and even says it's understandable, but then he asks if she's usually so vocal. Makes a point of him not playing with her in a long time and being a stranger to her playstyle and asks people to talk about BR some. Could be early game distancing, given the unlikelihood of the first player he comments on being a now-known elim.

Ahh. So here he challenges Karn's opinion that the elims would kill Mat. I actually don't disagree with him about that but accusing Karn for it seems a bit of a stretch. Overall pretty NAI.

Just a follow up after Karn's response. Feels NAI to me.

Just helping Karn vote mobile.

This post actually has some meat to it. After rereading the first cycle he says he has two strong gut feels. He doesn't specify who, but it does seem BR is one of them and that Karn is not. In this post he says he thinks Karn is village so it's possible if he was evil he changed his mind because it seemed unlikely to lynch him. There's nothing specific about the post that really stands out to me, though.

Confirms Snip is in the Fal Dara Doc.

Advocates the Snip relynch, which is honestly fair. Can't really hold it against him.

Questions Rath and votes for Snip, nothing I really find notable here.

Joke posts and RP. NAI.

Suggests if he was an elim he would have left Snip alone  not going to read too much into that, though.

Oh right! This is what rang alarm bells for me the first time! He had no idea that players are informed when their votes are negated, and then he proceeds to assume it was because of a defense action. Given the fact the elims have both a role block and can have their vote negated by sabotaging, and that they would have no idea what happens when a villager defends, this feels like a slip to me, like he knows for a fact Rath was village and wasn't vote blocked by Balthamel.

Bit of a larger post. I find it interesting he wants to vote Rath while he's already assumed his vote was canceled by defense action. Why would he think an eliminator would defend? My assuredness on the slip intensifies.

He also gives us 3 names. Rath, BR, and randuir. Mafia rule of three says that when an eliminator gives three names, one is a teammate and the other two are village. It's not a foolproof rule, but if I'm right about Mark slipping up with Rath then there's a good chance randuir is village, too.

Next post he continues to argue that Rath's vote negation came from defending. I'm not really getting the progression here.

Thanks Karn for clarifying ways the vote could have been negated. NAI.

Here he votes for randuir over Metaterminal. Given Meta flipped town, this could have been an opportunity for him to oppose a bandwagon he knew would make people look unfavorable without seeming like he isn't contributing. Could have also been a genuine concern, but with the whole Rath thing I'm thinking not.

Does some genuinely helpful math stuff, but tonally and strategically this post seems very different than the rest of his. I can't help but think Mark may have realized the slip he made earlier and tried to overcompensate in the opposite direction.

Anddd as I'm doing this, Mark ninja'd me

34 minutes ago, Mark IV said:

@Furamirionind
Yeah, my other suspicion was Randuir. It was very insubstantial at the time. I'd rather not have voted at the time because it was already D2. I'd have preferred to have had some iota of suggestive evidence against anyone I'd vote for. So, yeah. 

 

So far, from my reading of D4 and N4, I feel Randuir is (very likely) Village. On his tail (and probably more cleared) is CadCom. 
Randuir was the first person to vote for BR and was the reason BR was lynched. While this could have been him bussing BR, I'm willing to discount that possibility. Specifically because his claim about the other person in the Fielder's Doc seems like it would have been too well thought out, had it been Elim!Randuir that was posting. I'm not saying no one's capable of this, but that it's too much of an IKYK sort of thing. So, yeah. 
I feel CadCom's even more cleared because I don't see an elim being the second vote on Balthamel. 

DroughtBringer. Reading through D4 and N4, I was getting increasingly convinced that Drought might be elim. Part of it is his vote being the last one on BR's lynch. On its own its NAI. Even I did that with one of the lynches (Snip's, I think?). However, combined wtih what Fura and a few other have posted, I'm inclined to believe this is our best lead right now (well, except for that other Fielder, but idk who that might really be). I can't remember the other reasons right now. I am however, confident in the opinion of my past self.

 

Regarding this, I get the logic here (and I don't have a problem with it), but the tone of this post is not what I've come to expect of Aman. Specifically the way the last two sentences are phrased. I've never seen that kind of phrasing from you, so yeah. Perhaps I can point out what I'm not happy with when I'm less sleepy. (It just seems very unprofessional, so to speak)

It's currently 2 am, and it is also the third turn since I last posted. I'd like to apologise for my inactivity, but I had exams this weekend. So, yeah. I'm sorry about the quality of this post, but I had to get something out, and I didn't want it to be a one-liner. 

Okay so he confirms for us the second gut suspicion he had way back when was Rand. The fact that he's voted for Drought now is interesting. If I'm right about the slip and Mark is evil then Drought may very well not be.

I'm not entirely sure about his response to me, but it's late for him and he's sleepy so I'll just wait until later.

EDIT:

Oh, I just was thinking that it's interesting BR was the first player he commented on and one of two he had a strong gut suspicion of, but he never voted for her and she turned out to be evil. Kinda thinking evil!Mark makes a lot of sense.

 

Edited December 16, 2018 by Amanuensis

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Please do not forget to submit your actions! There are a little over four hours left in this cycle. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Ah right, should we be defending? Every time I remember to I always do but I'm not really sure if it's tactically the best call.

[Mark IV he/him]

Ah. I forgot to ask: 

Are we defending this cycle? I'm assuming we are. But I don't recall finding any comments as to whether we wanted the 6th ring specifically.  I guess the downside to prolonging our defense is that Rand gets fewer turns where he can try killing the forsaken. So, yeah. Idk. 

 

[DeTess she/her]

So, that analysis I said I'd do if I had time today? I've been helping someone move today and am physically and mentally exhausted, so I won't have the time or energy to do that, sorry.

That having been said, It's nice and horrifying to see Aman get into the swing of things. It's nice because I've been missing it, and horrifying because he's basically set up a head-to-head between himself and Mark IV, which is something I have seen Elim!Aman do before if we where at Lylo and an elim was at risk (MR21, for those who are curious). However, he's actually making a pretty good argument for why Mark is evil (If the math hadn't worked out against him in MR21, I'd probably have believed him then too though).

So yeah, If at all possible, I'd really rather not pick between Mark IV and Aman right now.

RE: defending, I think we should to that en-masse, because it means Moiraine will have an allignment scan with her vote manip (light-aligned players can't have their votes manipulated when defending).

Edit: oops, nevermind. I thought Moiraine could move a vote, but she can only move a no-vote, so this'd only work if people both defended and didn't vote, which is unlikely. Rand's ability will only hit one of the remaining elims, so I don't think we should be making particular haste towards letting all rings fall.

Edited December 16, 2018 by randuir

[Amanuensis he/him]

5 minutes ago, randuir said:

So, that analysis I said I'd do if I had time today? I've been helping someone move today and am physically and mentally exhausted, so I won't have the time or energy to do that, sorry.

That having been said, It's nice and horrifying to see Aman get into the swing of things. It's nice because I've been missing it, and horrifying because he's basically set up a head-to-head between himself and Mark IV, which is something I have seen Elim!Aman do before if we where at Lylo and an elim was at risk (MR21, for those who are curious). However, he's actually making a pretty good argument for why Mark is evil (If the math hadn't worked out against him in MR21, I'd probably have believed him then too).

So yeah, If at all possible, I'd really rather not pick between Mark IV and Aman right now.

RE: defending, I think we should to that en-masse, because it means Moiraine will have an allignment scan with her vote manip (light-aligned players can't have their votes manipulated when defending).

Apparently you remember my past games better than I do xD I'd completely forgotten about that whole situation. That said, this isn't anything so bold. I actually posted the same day I saw the Mark slip that I was suspicious of him, and I believe it was before he claimed he was in that doc, too. Either way I think it's a genuine mistake on his part

Edited December 16, 2018 by Amanuensis

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

I havent done the math, and doubt I will have time to this turn, however, I think everyone who can should defend. Obviously Rand can't.  There are several people who doubt will have a vote in by the end of the cycle.  Hopefully Moiraine can submit their action as late as possible to maximize their chance of finding info out.

Edit: but you are right, this is a bit less helpful than I was thinking...

Edited December 16, 2018 by Furamirionind

[CadCom he/him]

Hey all! I've been keeping up on a little bit of the discussion, but I havent had time to do a proper analysis yet as to what's going on. If someone could post a vote count for me, thatd be great.

Other than that, I'm leaning towards voting fordrought this cycle, but only based off the analysis of others unfortunately. 

The discussion about Mark and Aman is kind of interesting, and I'll look more into it, but most likely not today due to time restraints. 

[DeTess she/her]

I've done a quick reread of Aman's posts, and something stood out to me. It's already been mentioned that his lack of knowledge of the elims doesn't really clear him because BR was affecting the same lack of knowledge. However, with an elim doc at her back it was almost certainly a planned affectation (maybe not at first, but definitely a couple of cycles in) rather than actual lack of knowledge. Elim!Aman would have known that she'd done that, and I think he probably wouldn't have tried to use the same excuse after BR got lynched. Key word here being I think. As Aman could ahve gone through the same steps of reasoning I just did and then did it anyway to try and look innocent if someone came to this conclusion (We're what, 2 levels deep into an IKYK now?).

I really wish Aman had been more active before, because then I would have a couple of cycles of voting pattern to look back through to get a better idea of where he stands. Right now, he's either Honest!village!Aman or Elim!Aman and I can hardly tell the difference when he's been very active and I'm fully awake, let alone right now.

A vote will follow once I've had a shower and had some more time to think it over, but I'm leaning towards Drought right now. If we're not at Lylo it could actually shed some light on Aman and Mark whichever way he flips (Elim!drought looking worse for Aman as he seems to be angling for an alternative lynch, while village!drought would look bad for mark).

Edited December 16, 2018 by randuir

[CadCom he/him]

I actually just did the vote count. I think this is accurate...

Droughtbringer (2), fura, mark. 

Did I miss anything?

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Currently the vote stands as such:

Droughtbringer (2): Fura, Mark

That is it.

@Amanuensis would you prefer we vote for Mark rather than Drought? That is what your post would imply... yet you cast no vote? We are getting late into the cycle, with 3.5 hours left I think.

[Karnatheon he/him]

I think defending is the best course of action. We've only managed to lynch 1 elim, so the more day turns we get the better I feel. I could be wrong though. Worth noting, since we took out Balthamel, there is only 1 Forsaken left. So Rand's channeling will have less of an affect once we lose the Rings than anticipated.