Long Game 44: Shadows of Elantris Redux

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

What post are you talking about?

[Steeldancer he/him]

Three Jeskeri down. That meant only a maximum of 3 on the outside left, more likely 1 or 2. So, I decided to begin focusing my efforts on the Gyorn and their associates.
The first thought that came to mind was to use our loyal priest to slowly weed them out. But I've never been big on relying on religious authority. Another had already started figuring out who already had some other job that wouldn't be able to be a Gyorn as well. A good start. But me? I rely on connections. Now I had been not as efficient or critical in finding the Jeskeri as I wish I had been, but maybe looking from below was exactly what we needed to find the Gyorn. To my first thought, the Gyorn would be isolated. Quiet. It would make sense for them to not say as much, so they could stay out of the spotlight. My eyes turned to those who had not become more talkative after the rotten egg incident. It seemed to me logical that they were the ones who were most likely to be the Gyorn. Quietly plotting against us. Thankfully, with only a maximum of two Shu-Dereth people, even killing one would cripple their efforts to convert us all. All it will take is one good lynch, scan, or good analysis. 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

By the way, if you want to see my rise to ultimate power, check out this.  It starts near the bottom.  You might have to skip through some wishes, but it's worth it.

[Walin he/him]

Alright, 20 minutes left. Should we get in some discussion before the day arrives, or wait until we have a full 48 hours?

[Kidpen he/him]

1 minute ago, Walin said:

Alright, 20 minutes left. Should we get in some discussion before the day arrives, or wait until we have a full 48 hours?

If you have anything to discuss, please do tell.

[Herowannabe he/him]

Our impartial moderator, @Orlok Tsubodai, has requested that we extend this cycle an extra *24 hours so that he has time to review something, so carry on.

*(I'm extending it by 23 hours because it was already extended by 1 extra hour today because of my schedule. I hope that's alright). 

 

[Steeldancer he/him]

Meeeh so Now I'll be watching Infinity war during Rollover? This is a conflict of interests if there ever was one. 

[Walin he/him]

Oh, ok. I’ll be able to do analysis this cycle, but not now.

For now, I’ll simply acknowledge the timer and say that we should figure out who the Gyorn is, so we can get them dead ASAP.

As Elenion said, they’re the main target until the Gyorn and Odiv are gone.

[Elenion he/him]

We've talked about the Gyorn a lot, so what about the Odiv? I have a theory, and it involves tracking the Converts at the start of the game:

D1 there were 3 converts:

--Steeldancer, who N1 would pass the Pendant to me

--The player who Pendanted Araris

--Unclaimed player

D2 there were 4 converts:

--Me, getting the Pendant from Steel and N2 passing it to Wilson

--Araris

--A new convert from N1

--That same unclaimed player

During the Drake lynch, a Pendant was used that had no effect on the bandwagon. I've already explained my reasoning as to why this use has to have been by the Derethi, but basically it's because only they would have benefited. We can account for the Araris Pendant: it left the game after being used on him. We can account for the Steel/Len/Wilson Pendant: Wilson says it's still with her, and it would be very unwise for an Odiv to lie about something verifiable like that. This leaves the Drake lynch Pendant unaccounted for. The Drake lynch Pendant had to have started in the game, so D1 it has to have been in the hands of the unclaimed player. This player has not claimed even though they have no reason not to if they're village, so I think they held onto the Pendant before using it during the Drake lynch. If we can find the third player who started out as a convert, who used their Pendant during the Drake lynch, that's our Odiv.

[Walin he/him]

Alright then, that’s some great analysis. I call upon my Seon powers to ask one person if they have been converted.

While this doesn’t grant more information for sure, it does make it more possible to find the unclaimed one, but is a question more implicating to avoid than to answer.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Whilst the thread remains open, due to the nature of the ongoing situation, please do not submit new actions.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

10 hours ago, Elenion said:

If we can find the third player who started out as a convert, who used their Pendant during the Drake lynch, that's our Odiv.

It's unfortunate that we no longer receive convert tallies at night, but as the number of converts went up by three and Wilson apparently neither used nor passed her pendant, it seems that the player who used the pendant had been converted by the Gyorn and wants Shu-Dereth to win. The fact that whoever used the pendant retained their convert status means that one of the single conversion nights was caused by the Gyorn converting their pendant owning Odiv, or somebody was converted on the same night they were gifted a Shu-Dereth pendant. Since I'm pretty sure the Gyorn has to convert all other players including their Odiv and there was only one conversion on both nights two and three, the former option is looking more likely. If the third player to start with a pendant did pass on their pendant, they should claim now and state who they gave their pendant to.

The following is based on the presumption that the player who started with the third pendant is the Odiv.

Below is a list of all living players and their starting roles and items, with the Elantrians separated out. Now, we tentatively cross out any name that has a role and an item or two items. If the Gyorn swore an Odiv on Night 1, we can cross out Seonid for being scanned by a Korathi pendant and Joe for doing the scanning. If the Odiv was sworn on Night 2 or 3, this would not be the case as Joe's use of a pendant would not have determined Seonid's convert status and Joe would have had no incentive to hold on to his Korathi pendant as a mere convert.  Lopen has apparently mostly cleared Mraize of being the Gyorn, and I assume that applies to him being the Odiv as well. I'm pretty sure it's impossible for there to be an Elantrian Odiv who started with a Derethi pendant, as they can't target outside of Elantris. Hooray! Our Odiv suspect list is essentially the same as our Gyorn list, with Straw, King Cole, Walin, and Imperial Mint being the prime suspects with our secondary suspects being Seonid, Joe, and Mraize.

If there were an Elantrian pendant holder who became an Odiv, the schedule would look something like this:

D1(3): Pendant holder 1, Steeldancer, Elantrian (Pendant holder 1 uses their pendant on Araris, Steeldancer passes to Elenion, the Elantrian is the Odiv, one becomes converted)
D2(4): Araris, Elenion, Elantrian(Odiv,pendant), Elantrian (Araris dies, Elenion passes to Wilson, the Gyorn converts a random player, the Odiv does nothing)
D3(4): Wilson, Elantrian(Odiv,pendant), Elantrian, non-Elantrian (The Gyorn converts the Odiv, the Odiv converts an Elantrian)
D4(5): Wilson, Elantrian(Odiv,pendant,convert), Elantrian, Elantrian, non-Elantrian (The Gyorn converts Seonid, the Odiv pendants an Elantrian and converts another)
D5(8): Wilson, Elantrian(Odiv,convert), Elantrian, Elantrian, Elantrian, random non-Elantrian, Seonid, Elantrian

Since there are only four Elantrians, this is impossible, unless the Odiv is capable of converting themselves or the Elantrians have figured out how to target outside Elantris. Either of these cases would make this scenario improbable instead of impossible. 

Little Wilson: Jindo warrior, Seon
A Joe in the Bush/Coop772: Korathi pendant
Steeldancer: Derethi pendant, Seon
Straw:
Elenion: Prince, Seon
King Cole:
Devotary of Spontaneity: Dula, Seon
Mraize:
The Honey Badger/Walin: Seon
Kidpen: Monarch, Seon
Seonid:
TheYoungPyromancer: Seon, poison vial
Imperial Mint:
TheMightyLopen: Prince, Seon

Droughtbringer:
Cadmium Compounder:
Kynedath/Jondesu:
Hemalurgic Headshot:

[Elenion he/him]

First off, thank you @Devotary of Spontaneity for doing analysis. I think it's very interesting that, assuming Pendant 3 stayed still, it narrows the Odiv down to the same group of people as the Gyorn. I'm not sure quite what to think about that. On the one hand, it could mean that both the Gyorn and Odiv are in that group, and so we can search for Derethi that much easier. On the other hand, it makes me wonder if the third Pendant actually did move, and we just haven't heard about it because it started with an Elantrian, or an inactive, or just someone who doesn't feel like claiming.

Either way, I want to put tomorrow's lynch somewhere in that group (plus maybe Mraize because I don't like blindly trusting Lopen). We can be fairly sure the Gyorn is in there, and there's a decent chance of the Odiv being in there as well.

[Kidpen he/him]

Would it hurt the village at all if the thread knew the Elantrian converts name? I don’t think so, but ai wanted to check.

[Elenion he/him]

6 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

Would it hurt the village at all if the thread knew the Elantrian converts name? I don’t think so, but ai wanted to check.

Wait, there's an Elantrian convert? When did this happen?

I don't see how it would hurt us, because it wouldn't help the Jeskeri at all and the Derethi probably want us to be starved of convert info.

[Kidpen he/him]

5 minutes ago, Elenion said:

Wait, there's an Elantrian convert? When did this happen?

I don't see how it would hurt us, because it wouldn't help the Jeskeri at all and the Derethi probably want us to be starved of convert info.

I believe Aman told us a while ago. It’s CC.

[Seonid he/him]

@Devotary of Spontaneity, is there a reason that we're excluding players with a role and/or items from the Odiv suspect list? I don't see why they are any less likely to have been converted

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 minutes ago, Seonid said:

is there a reason that we're excluding players with a role and/or items from the Odiv suspect list? I don't see why they are any less likely to have been converted

Excluding those people is based on the hypotheses that the third player to start with a pendant is the Odiv. Additionally, it so far appears that players started with at most two items, or a role and a single item. If that role and item/two items are accounted for, they could not have also started out with a Derethi pendant. It isn't guaranteed that the player with that pendant is the Odiv, but unless the original holder claims they passed it on and can prove it, that's looking quite likely. The main alternatives are that the Gyorn's first Elantrian convert (Cadmium Compounder) is the Odiv, or that the Gyorn did not select an Odiv until night 3.

 

[Elenion he/him]

1 hour ago, Kidpen said:

I believe Aman told us a while ago. It’s CC.

50 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Excluding those people is based on the hypotheses that the third player to start with a pendant is the Odiv. Additionally, it so far appears that players started with at most two items, or a role and a single item. If that role and item/two items are accounted for, they could not have also started out with a Derethi pendant. It isn't guaranteed that the player with that pendant is the Odiv, but unless the original holder claims they passed it on and can prove it, that's looking quite likely. The main alternatives are that the Gyorn's first Elantrian convert (Cadmium Compounder) is the Odiv, or that the Gyorn did not select an Odiv until night 3.

 

I must've forgotten that. According to Devotary's analysis, an Elantrian Odiv could have done what we've seen conversion-wise, bar Elantrians targeting outside Elantris or the Odiv self-converting, so I'm thinking it's likely that CadCom was the N1 Gyorn convert and is not the Odiv.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I have a theory why the cycle was extended.  Wilson protected herself, and her lover was killed.  The GM's have to figure out what being smitten with herself means.

Or maybe Elantris was restored...

[Elbereth she/her]

LG44: Day 6 - Ate

Night fell quietly over Kae. A band of children played tag in an alleyway, before one of their mothers came to shoo them all back home before nightfall. The tinkers and merchants packed up their stalls and closed their shops to head home.

From above, Kae was full of flickering lights. Candlelight, now, no Aons anymore. Once, the city would have glowed like a beacon, but now...

Well. Now it was dark, and through the darkness moved souls yet darker. Jeskeri cultists stalked through the dark, searching for new sacrifices, but the people were scared, and every door was shut to them.

Kainae had decided not to risk painting again, tonight. She needed a decent night’s sleep for once. She slept soundly beneath her covers, secure in the knowledge that her doors and windows were barred as securely as she’d been able to manage.

Straw still ran through the night, delivering messages. Mostly illicit ones, now, but he didn’t particularly care for the trysts of lovers so long as they’d pay him to deliver their messages.

The Imperial Mint sat enthroned and imperious.

In a small Derethi chapel, a voice rang out, speaking of coming disaster and doom. Only by me may you be saved, it intoned.

Only by me may you be saved through your sacrifice, whispered the Jeskeri passing in the night.

And yet those praying for salvation would not have been comforted, even if they had heard.

Candles winked out in the night, one by one, and darkness fell on Kae.  

---

No one died! No one was taken by the Shaod!

Conversion tally: 10 / 18

Day 6 has begun and will end at 7pm MST on April the 28th.

Player List

Spoiler

1. Little Wilson: Kainae the Artist
2. A Joe in the Bush: Fenot the Alchemist
3. Eternum: Enerin the travelling storyteller Arelish Citizen with a Seon and Passphrase
4. Steeldancer: Bob the shoe-shiner
5. Straw: Straw the errand-boy
6. Araris Valerian: Elysian the orphaned worldhopper Jeskeri Cultist with Korathi Pendant
7. Elenion: Enelan, the Palace's head chef
8. King Cole: Bill the butcher
9. Devotary of Spontaneity: Sheodan, a soldier in Eondel's army
10. Mraize: Sahin Arehe, heir to the Are Plantation / ex-heir to- / it's complicated / Noble Merchant
11. Walin (formerly the Honey Badger): Eoni the grandiose peasant
12. Drake Marshall: Ateshao, an itinerant tinker. Jeskeri Cultist with no items
13. Bort: Daoate, a member of the Elantris City Guard  Arelish Citizen with Jeskeri Pendant and a Seon
14. Randuir: Saoir, the Royal Archivist Arelish Citizen with Korathi Pendant and Passphrase
15. Kidpen: Amati the farmer
16. Seonid: Sheon Idris, a rockstar trying to get the band back together
17. TheYoungPyromancer: Aladdin, a guy looking for a lamp
18. Dalinar Kholin: Soren Porfiry, procrastinator extraordinaire. Jeskeri Cultist / Jindo Warrior with no items
19. STINK: Imperial Mint, an honest to Domi Mint.
20. TheMightyLopen: Nigel, a doctor of some renown
21. Amanuensis: Dio Brando, a vampi- really hot guy. Arelish Priest who had been poisoned
22. Arinian: Eilen the traveler with the mute talking swordArelish Dula who had been poisoned

Elantrians
1. Cadmium Compounder: Rhomil, an indiscriminate merchant
2. Droughtbringer: In, head of the Patriarch Seinalan fan club
3. Jondesu (formerly Kynedath): Angrin Nalti Gu Uda Sandrius (ANGUS), the WikiLeaks of Kae
4. Hemalurgic Headshot: Reth Liari, a stereotypical dashing vagabond with enigmatic origins

 

 

Edited April 27, 2018 by Elbereth
conversion tally was incorrect

[Kidpen he/him]

That’s odd. no one died.

I was converted.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Wat.

[Steeldancer he/him]

I raised an eyebrow. "Well, what do we do now?"

[Kidpen he/him]

Could that mean the Jeskiri are gone? Or do they want us to think that?