Mid-Range Game 27: Quarantine

[Jondesu he/him]

It’s entirely possible that both BR and Budgie are Elims, then. Those should probably be our next two lynches, but with that in mind, we need to be talking more about the next lynches and preparing rather than letting discussion stagnate. 

Elenion is always somewhat suspicious to me, but not as much as sometimes, which says a lot. 

Steel’s attack on me (and on Orlok) is misguided, but I don’t think he would have said that as an Elim, simply because it’s too aggressive and draws too much attention. Then again, it did feel like Elim logic, so I’m not sure. 

I’ll post again with some other ideas hopefully. No promises though.

[MonsterMetroid]

Elenion for the reasons I listed above and that even IF he turns up village it will give us a better read on an actual elim so we will get information from his lynch either way.

[Elenion he/him]

43 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Elenion is always somewhat suspicious to me, but not as much as sometimes, which says a lot. 

The Wheel turns and history repeats.

2 hours ago, MonsterMetroid said:

And lastly is @Elenion through my rereads came out as a bit suspicious to me. I don't think I noticed it the first time because he backed me up as being likely village but he immediately backed up my analysis of the six and said we likely had 2 elims in the group because the map stealer (which we now know was a false assumption). If there is only 1 elim in the group of six I think an elim would be happy to trade 5 villagers for 1 elim and it doesn't seem like the elims are targeting any of us in the 6 yet, likely leaving us for lynch opportunities. He has already accused BR (which granted she is on my list too) but just for science lets assume there are 3, 4 or 5 elims and see our percentage chances.

The end result of your analysis agrees with my logic yesterday that if there are 2 elims in the 6, then it's best to look there. I think my assumption of 2 elims was justified at the time: the only reason that it did not work is that Alv was acting against his own win condition, and in my logic I assumed all players were playing to win. So really, your vote on me boils down to me being wrong about how many elims were in the group, and I can't think of a single player here who suspected that a villager took the map without the intention to use it.

11 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

BR suggested item accountability

That was referring to this post, right?

This idea actually has the potential to hurt us instead of help us. Let's say a village vanilla Jimmy gets a piece of Chalk one night. The next day, he gets the feeling that he might be an elim target. If we instituted BR's suggestion, Jimmy would have to post in thread whether or not he's going for an item. Jimmy has 4 options:

1. Announce he's going for an item and then go for one. This tells the elims he's wide open for a kill, so Jimmy has a good chance of dying to the elims.

2. Announce he's going for an item and then use the Chalk. He might block the elim kill, but he's summarily lynched for lying about his action amid allegations of a WGG.

3. Announce he's not going for an item, and then go for one. Once again, Jimmy ends up on the gallows for lying.

4. Announce he's not going for an item, and then use the Chalk. Using the Chalk would be worthless for him, because the elims know not to target him.

The only way to avoid this problem is not lynching liars, but then how would we know who's an elim and who's a villager trying to throw the elims off? BR's suggestion doesn't help us in the short run or in the long run; it just leads to the elims having a decreased chance of hitting Chalk.

Also, @Orlok Tsubodai, you just said,

1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I also trust MonsterMetroid, both from their posts, and our PM conversation.

but up above you said,

11 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

you acquit Monster and vote on BR. Why?

If you agree with my vote on BR over Monster, for the same reason as his posts sounding village, why do you challenge me on that?

And to your question about why I discount Budgie from analysis, it's because misremembering the game format isn't the usual excuse. If I was to have made up an excuse for forgetting my action in my first few games, I would have gone for something like forgetting how to submit actions or forgetting an action altogether, not forgetting the game format. I think his alibi's genuine because it's an explanation that you likely wouldn't think of had it not actually happened to you.

[Kynedath]

Okay, I have some suspicions forming, but I'm not entirely sure how to pursue them. On the one hand, we have at least one guaranteed elim in the small pool of those who took no item on day 1. I think it's smart to follow that, but I'm also seeing some evidence that indicates that Elenion is an eliminator as well.

First off, in the first cycle, Elenion was on near the very beginning to encourage players participating, poking at a couple inactives. However, near the middle of the cycle, they disappeared completely. They didn't come back on to discuss any of the major developments going on between Orlok, Steel and Mac, then posted fifth of sixth on cycle two. This could have been their own schedule, but it's also something that I feel an elim would do. Stay under the radar while doing the normal stuff that people do on Day 1 which is to encourage lurkers to stop lurking. In and of itself, not much, but enough to make me scratch my head for a brief moment.

Elenion jumped right onto the idea that the village should search in the group that didn't take an item (we need a new name for them, I'll call them the D1 abstainers). It's a great idea with valid points, but he was also pushing a vote on Orlok with what I consider weak arguments. He also showed a slight trust towards budgie through the entire ordeal based on a claim that any elim could have made. Even before Budgie had made that claim, Elenion had stated that analyzing them and eternum was most likely a dead end. This behaviour makes me wonder if Elenion has been trying to prolong our search within the D1 abstainers, seeing how long they can keep the village from searching the rest of us. Going back through their posts, I noticed that once the vote was secure on Alv, Elenion stopped pushing for any of his points and started posting mainly vote-counts.

Once Orlok claimed being the thief, Elenion takes it as fact. There was no hesitation for him to trust the word of someone who still had the possibility of being an elim. This would make sense if they were an eliminator themselves since they already knew that Orlok wasn't an elim themselves. In a later post, they state that they were somewhat suspicious for a moment that Orlok was an elim covering for elim!Eternum. They fail to take a decsive stance on the subject after that which, considering their playstyle before, is something that set off a couple alarms. Before that, they were stating their opinions very clearly and taking a definitive stance, but I think that maybe they had made a mistake by assuming everyone else would take Orlok's word and this was them covering it up quickly.

After that, as a bandwagon was forming on Jon, Elenion tried again to keep the village searching the D1 abstainers, trying to refute analysis on a valid suspect and prolonging the time spent on six specific people.

I know that there is an elim, maybe two in the D1 abstainers, but I don't believe that if we have a solid read on someone we are suspicious of, we shouldn't pursue it because they aren't a part of a specific group that has an elim hiding in it somewhere. This, along with Orlok's and MonsterMetroid's arguments, is why I am placing my vote on Elenion until I am convinced that there is a better target based on evidence rather than just being a part of the D1 abstainers.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Kynedath

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

So, I finally caught up woooo. Don't know if y'all are tired of hearing it, but I'm really sorry for the low activity. I've been dealing with looking for a job for the first time and having to give up my room for the week for my Uncle who's visiting so I've had a lot of stuff on my plate.

Hey at least I managed to vote and actually grab a supply this past cycle lol. Okay, so I understand the suspicion on me, and I don't know what else to say besides I honestly did just forget to go for an item on the first cycle. @Elenion Yeah I see your reasons for not liking my suggestions about the camp supply, but I was trying to think of all the options and just figured I'd throw it out there. I still think we could have worked it out for at least the first day to tell what everyone was going for, but ah well. Also, I'm curious, why did you think that two of us that didn't go for items could be elims on Day 1? I'd say the elims would've been really careful to go for items that cycle.

I also don't see the sus on Jon for going for an acid bucket. I did, and was planning to for cycle one as well, but forgot. If you all think that the acid buckets are useful for elims..isn't the thought you should think that you want to keep them out of their hands? Even before you got confirmation from Sart that they also can block the kill it still makes sense to me to get rid of the acid buckets quickly.

I have to leave for church in like 30 min so I'll be back to vote later, but for now I'll just say that from going through the cycles that Len and Budgie are my top suspects for now. I'll try and get on to look at stuff more later and vote.

[Steeldancer he/him]

I really intended to get around to analysis, but between work, homework, and preparing for a piano competition sunday, I'm swamped. I can't even afford to stay up late, because I desperately need more sleep. So I'll try and get around to everything tomorrow. . 

[Elenion he/him]

@Kynedath  I'm a shift leader at a fast food diner and also a half-time college student, and so my schedule is very strange. I will confess to, in addition to that, not being on as much as usual C1, but if you look at past games I usually don't even get my analysis really going until cycle 3-4, so I'm actually starting early this game. I don't usually do well with tone reads; I prefer process of elimination and analysis of elim strategy. Since most of D1 is just tone stuff, I usually keep my head down.

I called analysis on Budgie and Eternum a dead end because at the time I believed each had sent in no action, something impossible to verify. After Eternum claimed an action and Budgie provided a good alibi, both of those changed.

I stopped pushing my points D2 because I wasn't the person with good analysis against Alv. Had we been debating Orlok I would have kept going, but after that lynch stopped I hopped onto the Alv lynch because I wanted to ensure a lynch on someone in the 6 that I wasn't reading good on. BR would have worked equally well. I kept vote tallies up to ensure Alv was lynched, but I wasn't going to provide evidence and reads I didn't have.

I initially took Orlok's claim to be the truth because he's Orlok. He's not the type to false claim that early. After he covered for Eternum I got a paranoid feeling that he could be a deep-cover elim, but after nobody counterclaimed that suspicion passed, hence why I now trust Eternum.

I really don't think Jon is a valid suspect, so I wanted to kill the bandwagon on him because it had no good reason to exist in the first place. All Jon did was take an item in full public view, and he didn't try to be sneaky at all about it. That's NAI to me, so I intervened to ensure the lynch fell where there was a good chance of an elim being.

@BrightnessRadiant  One of them has to be an elim, because the elim kill was put in using an action. The second was because somebody took the map, but now we know that was village!Alv doing something that I thought no villager would do.

[Steeldancer he/him]

To add to my wonderfully annoying RL situation, my mom took my phone. I still will be able to hop on, but its going to limit my ability to be on for extended periods of time, a la to do analysis. 

Ok, I did a quick analysis, and I am currently suspicious of Devotary. He showed up very briefly, and hardly contributed anything, but still managed to take an item and everything. I feel like he might be trying to fly under the radar. 

[Elenion he/him]

I don't think I've got much more to say than what I've said already. Please, if you haven't already, cast your votes. I hope I can convince you that BR is an elim, but if I can't I'll be leaving parting reads and suggestions before I go.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Alrighty, let's look into who I said earlier: Len and Budgie.

First off, I'd like to put Budgie up for the lynch and I don't see the reasoning why everyone is discounting her so quickly just because of a claim that she forgot about taking an item the first cycle. Just saying that she might not be experienced enough to have thought of that excuse isn't logical because 1. she's been playing for a pretty good amount of games now and 2. she could very well have been asked by her elim teammates to put in the first kill and they could have easily given her that excuse hoping that people would believe she wouldn't think of it on her own as an elim. (ahem *looks at Len suspiciously:P)

My reasons for suspecting Len rest partly on the possibility that Budgie is evil and Len has been protecting her from the lynch by pushing me. (I see the reasons for suspecting me or even framing me because if I view it beyond my knowledge that I'm a villager I can see the case to be easily made.) If I need to die this cycle to clear up the lynch discussion a bit then so be it, but personally I would rather lynch Budgie because I think that's where our elim who made the first kill is. I know it wasn't me, Alv, and I think I trust Monster slightly from reading his posts and also I think I believe Eternum's story of scanning the thief cycle one.

That leaves me to suspect Budgie above anyone else. 

My theory is that Budgie, Len, and possibly Jon are some of the elims and I've seen Len sorta defend both of them at some point. While it's true that elims don't normally like to defend each other it gets into an ikyk territory and could still happen. I don't actually suspect Jon for taking a bucket of acid as I pointed out to everyone several times already, the acid can be very helpful to keep away from the elims. (and we could use them to block the kill as well) The main reason I suspect Jon is because of Len sorta protecting him and also because he's on my list of people I just trust less in general.

Ninja'd by Len just now:P 

I'd like to do more of a read through on Len's posts later, but for now I wanted to get this post down and ask everyone to vote for Budgie. I know I'm innocent, but I have no real way to back up my claim. Neither does Budgie tho and I suspect her so that's my case. All I can do is tell the truth and let you decide.

Edit: also @Jondesu Why state that you think me or Budgie might be elims and then not vote? @Eternum @livinglegend @manukos @Devotary of Spontaneity @A Budgie @Caesura Y'all should vote:P

Also, I didn't remember that so many people had voted Len, and I'll switch my vote there if no one wants to go for Budgie this cycle.

Edited February 8, 2018 by BrightnessRadiant

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Mkay, I think I will switch my vote off of Budgie and vote Len since he's leading in the lynch rn and if he's an elim I will feel better about my connecting him to Budgie and Jon.

[MonsterMetroid]

20 hours ago, Elenion said:

So really, your vote on me boils down to me being wrong about how many elims were in the group, and I can't think of a single player here who suspected that a villager took the map without the intention to use it.

You are right about this but you brought up this logic on day 2, a villager couldn't have possibly used the map on day 2 because he only got it on day 1 so whether it was an elim or villager we wouldn't have known whether they would have used it or not until today, after we already took really crappy odds lynching a villager who just so happened to have had the map. And I will admit I should have done these calculations myself earlier rather than just assuming that there was two elims but it feels like you wanted us to think there was two.

[Sart he/him]

Rule Clarifications:

Quote

If a player is hit with a Bucket of Acid, does that remove all protection on them?

Yes. Unlike normal role-blocks, a bucket of acid negates any uses of Chalk on that player. In addition, like a normal role-block, it cancels that player's action to use chalk on someone else.

Quote

Can I leave a will for people to get my items upon my death?

No. all items of deceased players are returned to the camp supply. Please note, however, that these are immediately available for anyone to take. This is how 4 people were able to take Buckets of Acid, when there were only 3 Buckets in the supply at the start of the cycle. When Drake died, he dropped a Bucket of Acid that was then picked up by another player.

Quote

Is there an inactivity filter?

Yes there is. If a player does not post for 2 cycles in a row, that player is killed. Thankfully, no one is in danger from it yet. I'm just letting people know about it.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Sart
Info about Inactivity filter

[MonsterMetroid]

Thanks sart for helping me not double post again :)

Current vote counts by my count:

BR(1) Elenion

Elenion(4) Orlok, MonsterMetroid, Kynedath, BR

Devotary(1) Steeldancer

 

If i messed up somewhere let me know

[Elenion he/him]

I've been talking in PMs with Orlok and he's convinced me that a Budgie lynch would be more beneficial to us than a BR lynch. I know it's a bit late in the cycle for this sort of thing, but it's taken Orlok this long to convince me.  This way we still get info about BR, and we still have a chance of hitting an elim as opposed to lynching me.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

I, too, will move my vote to Budgie. I’m getting a pretty reasonable village read from Elenion in my PM with him. I’m not clearing him, but no longer think his lynch will give us information about BR and Budgie. 

[Caesura she/her]

I think I’m mostly up to date on everything. I haven’t really contributed to discussion because I don’t feel like I have much useful to contribute. Due to my lack of experience, most of my thoughts on the game are just reading someone else’s post and thinking, “Oh yeah, that’s a really good point”

I hadn’t really considered the possibility of Elenion being an eliminator, because he’s been super nice to me in PM’s throughout the game. In hindsight, that was probably a bit naïve. As I said to Orlok just before, I have the tendency to trust until proven otherwise, which is probably the complete opposite of what I should be doing in a game like this.

So yeah, we have at least one eliminator from the group who didn’t take an item D1, but I haven’t found a good reason to distrust any one over the others yet. And there are several eliminators outside that group too, so we shouldn’t focus solely on that.

I might not make it back on before rollover - need to pick the car up from the garage - so I’m going to vote.

Since I have doubts about Elenion being an eliminator, BR is probably my best option this cycle. Like Metroid said, she was the one to suggest that everyone declare what items they were going to take, which is probably just helping the eliminators know who to target. Of the people that didn’t take an item D1 she looks the most suspicious to me, and that’s all I’ve really got to go on right now.

EDIT: Ninja'd, twice. @Orlok Tsubodai, if you explain your reasoning I might change my vote. I'll leave my computer on while I do stuff for a while.

Edited February 8, 2018 by Caesura

[Elenion he/him]

@Caesura I just moved my vote to Budgie, so a vote on BR won't help us much because she's not a viable lynch anymore. Would you consider moving it to Budgie? We'll still get info about BR.

[Orlok Tsubodai he/him]

@Caesura, my reasoning at the moment is that I have a reasonable read on Brightness from PMs. She’s reacted as I’d expect a villager to to phishing, and claims that she’d have claimed to me were she evil, as she felt bad about the eliminators not PMing the neutrals in LG36, in a way that seemed genuine.

Elenion and I have been talking almost continuously in our PM for the last 2 hours, and he’s made suggestions, and given information that seems very typical of being a villager.

[Caesura she/her]

Okay, that seems fair. BR, Budgie.

I probably should actually go now, this game has sucked up a lot more of my morning than I anticipated! I'll see you all later on.

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

Mkay, I'm fine with that since it's the lynch I wanted to start with Elenion Budgie I hope for my own life that I'm right.

[Kynedath]

I'm still tentative to take my vote off of Len. They seem a lot more suspicious to me than any of the D1 abstainers (still hoping it'll catch on).

[Elenion he/him]

Budgie (4): Len, Orlok, Caesura, BR

Len (2): Monster, Kynedath

Devotary (1): Steel

If Budgie is evil, I'm not suspicious of BR anymore. If Budgie is evil, BR is really the only option left for who put in the elim kill.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just now, Elenion said:

Budgie (4): Len, Orlok, Caesura, BR

Len (2): Monster, Kynedath

Devotary (1): Steel

If Budgie is evil, I'm not suspicious of BR anymore. If Budgie is evil, BR is really the only option left for who put in the elim kill.

Such variety from Budgie being evil! Such paradox's!
I'm still pretty sure Devotary might be evil... and he still hasn't shown up. @Devotary of Spontaneityis there a reason you are staying under the radar?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 minute ago, Steeldancer said:

Such variety from Budgie being evil! Such paradox's!
I'm still pretty sure Devotary might be evil... and he still hasn't shown up. @Devotary of Spontaneityis there a reason you are staying under the radar?

If I don't have a strong opinion on who might be evil, I tend to say nothing at all. It's unfortunate, but I don't seem to be able to break the habit. I suppose I will vote for A Budgie today, and if she turns out to be a villager focus on BR and Len.