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[OB] Death Rattle analysis


Brgst13

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3 hours ago, .S.A.M.K.M said:

Apart from imminent death, what are the other situation that allow visions? They might be key about how the visions work and can be applied.

Whatever Renarin is doing.  Plus, *maybe* what Taravangian did with The Diagram.  However, Brandon has warned us about seeing the future always being dangerous. https://wob.coppermind.net/events/314-salt-lake-city-signing/#e8904

Quote

Questioner [PENDING REVIEW]

Second question:  So voidbinding is...one part of voidbinding is seeing the future. And atium is also seeing the future.  And I notice annotations for Elantris, you said something about seeing the future could go weird... sends assassins.  Is that a running..

Brandon [PENDING REVIEW]

It is a running theme in the Cosmere.  And it's...whatever path you take to do it is dangerous in the Cosmere.  It's kind of a sign of...you are in dangerous territory, and drawing upon a Shard that is...

Questioner [PENDING REVIEW]

Potentially <indistinguishable>?

Brandon [PENDING REVIEW]

Potentially...yes...I mean to say...dangerous territory.

I really wonder what he was going to say before he cut himself off.  (sorry to derail)

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On 12/31/2017 at 1:59 PM, Varion said:
17. “I hold the suckling child in my hands, a knife at his throat, and know that all who live wish me to let the blade slip. Spill its blood upon the ground, over my hands, and with it gain us further breath to draw. ”
— Collected on Shashanan 1173, 23 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a darkeyed youth of sixteen years. Sample is of particular note.[24]
35. “So the night will reign, for the choice of honor is life... ”
— Observed circa Ishi 1173 by Taravangian. Subject was King Valam of Jah Keved.[4]
4. “A man stood on a cliffside and watched his homeland fall into dust. The waters surged beneath, so far beneath. And he heard a child crying. They were his own tears. ”
— Collected on Tanatesev 1171, 30 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a cobbler of some renown
I think these show three critical, and sequential moments in Taravangian's future. It appears to predict that Taravangian's bargain with Odium to save his city and its people will hinge on killing a baby, or not. 

Could the suckling child/baby be Kharbranth itself? The city could be seen as a child because of its small size and lack of power. As its king, Taravangian holds it in his hands and he has the knife to its throat when he's bargining with Odium. Everyone wants him to join Honor/Dalinar's side but he chooses to save Kharbranth instead. The child crying could be Kharbranth falling and Taravangian mourning over it.

However choosing to save Kharabranth and aligning with Odium is very un-Honor-like thing to do, when "the choice of Honor is is life", so I'm not sure

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On 30/12/2017 at 6:56 PM, Brgst13 said:

 

29. “All is withdrawn for me. I stand against the one who saved my life. I protect the one who killed my promises. I raise my hand. The storm responds. ”
— Collected on Tanatanev 1173, 18 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a darkeyed mother of four in her sixty-second year.[37]

Refers to Kaladin saving the king from Moash during the storm.

I am forced to disagree with this interpretation.  While it could be argued that Moash saved Kaladin's life, the description "the one who killed my promises" seems to not fit Elkohar very well.  Kaladin also does not raise his hand until after the Stormfather and Syl have a minor disagreement.  I personally feel that this fits Dalinar much better, as he is the one most likely to be able to make a storm respond by raising his hand.  Also, the "All is withdrawn for me" section seems more inline with an Ascended Dalinar than Kaladin defending Elkohar.

 

It actually fits more with Syl than Kaladin. "I stand against the one who saved my life" (the Stormfather). I protect the one who killed my promises (Kaladin).

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On 12/30/2017 at 6:56 PM, Brgst13 said:

35. “So the night will reign, for the choice of honor is life... ”

— Observed circa Ishi 1173 by Taravangian. Subject was King Valam of Jah Keved.[4]

Prediction that someone will be allowed to live and therefore Odium will win a victory.  Possibly connected to 17.


Not sure if anyone has pointed this one out to you yet, but I'm pretty sure this one is referencing Kaladin falling into the chasms and 'killing' Syl as he did so, just so he could live. It doesn't come true though, since he 'resurrects' her at the end of WoR. Until he does so though, it does indeed seem that the night will reign - Szeth would have gotten Dalinar, and Moash would have gotten Elokhar.

Also, I disagree with #10. I think that one has nothing to do with Thaylah, and the ten people referenced are in fact the ten Heralds. This could put it referring to past events, or it could speak of new Heralds ascending.

Edited by Bort
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10 hours ago, Atxk said:

Could the suckling child/baby be Kharbranth itself? The city could be seen as a child because of its small size and lack of power. As its king, Taravangian holds it in his hands and he has the knife to its throat when he's bargining with Odium. Everyone wants him to join Honor/Dalinar's side but he chooses to save Kharbranth instead. The child crying could be Kharbranth falling and Taravangian mourning over it.

However choosing to save Kharabranth and aligning with Odium is very un-Honor-like thing to do, when "the choice of Honor is is life", so I'm not sure

I agree that the suckling child could be metaphorical. I also agree that it could all refer to the moment of his bargain with Odium. If that's the case, though, I don't think the baby refers to Kharbranth. Afterall, if he chose to save the city, why is it falling? The internal logic doesn't flow. Another metaphorical reading could be that the baby represents the fledgling Knights Radiant. Taravangian is thus faced with the choice of supporting the KR, or saving Kharbranth. 

If this is true (and I am not at all convinced that it is), then it is interesting that Taravangian made the opposite choice in reality. This makes sense if we consider that Odium/Moeloch could be trying to manipulate Taravangian with through the death rattles. By showing him a metaphorical vision of their future bargain, Odium could influence Taravangian's decision in advance, by presents a potential version of the future that paints his options in stark contrast. For example, by playing up the pain and inevitability of the losing Kharbranth, while minimising the value of saving the helpless, baby Knights Radiant, Odium could nudge Taravangian towards choosing to save his city and give up the KR as a lost cause. 

As I said, I don't really believe this is the right interpretation, but I offer it up as a potential metaphorical reading that makes more sense than having the baby represent Kharbranth. 

 

 

 

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I think we should at least consider that for #17, the "suckling child" could refer to Elhokar's son. I'm not sure yet why it would be important for him to die, but he is the first baby of significance we've seen. Another possibility could be a future child of Shallan and Adolin.

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23 hours ago, Scattered said:

I think we should at least consider that for #17, the "suckling child" could refer to Elhokar's son. I'm not sure yet why it would be important for him to die, but he is the first baby of significance we've seen. Another possibility could be a future child of Shallan and Adolin.

Gavinor's already weaned (also his mother is no longer with us), so if that one is about the future then it would have to be a younger baby.

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On 12/30/2017 at 11:56 AM, Brgst13 said:
12. “I'm standing over the body of a brother. I'm weeping. Is that his blood or mine? What have we done? ”
— Collected on Vevanev 1173, 107 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was an out-of-work Veden sailor.[18]
Unknown.  May represent a future division in an order of the Knights Radiant.

Brothers: we have Gavilar & Dalinar

Oroden & Kaladin

Renarin & Adolin

it sounds like Eshoni or Venli to me though. Standing over Gavilar’s body as they weep because they & their people will die because of his death. 

On 12/30/2017 at 11:56 AM, Brgst13 said:
17. “I hold the suckling child in my hands, a knife at his throat, and know that all who live wish me to let the blade slip. Spill its blood upon the ground, over my hands, and with it gain us further breath to draw. ”
— Collected on Shashanan 1173, 23 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a darkeyed youth of sixteen years. Sample is of particular note.[24]
Unknown as yet, but likely to refer to a climatic event.

So, I was just reading the thread by @TheDoomsday  (sorry, I don’t know how to link the entire thread, just my own comments in it)

And this death rattle made me think of Shallan holding a suckling child and contemplating killing it. Seems fitting since she killed so many of her other family members. 

Of course if #35 if referring to the same situation then 

On 12/30/2017 at 11:56 AM, Brgst13 said:
35. “So the night will reign, for the choice of honor is life... ”
— Observed circa Ishi 1173 by Taravangian. Subject was King Valam of Jah Keved.[4]

Prediction that someone will be allowed to live and therefore Odium will win a victory.  Possibly connected to 17.

Then Shallan won’t kill her child and somehow that is a win for Odium (the night).

 

On 12/30/2017 at 11:56 AM, Brgst13 said:
23. “I wish to sleep. I know now why you do what you do, and I hate you for it. I will not speak of the truths I see. ”
— Collected on Kakashah 1173, 142 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a Shin sailor, left behind by his crew, reportedly for bringing them ill luck. Sample largely useless.[30]
Subject may be resisting speaking their visions because they understand what the Silent Gatherers are doing.

So my first impression upon reading this today is that it was someone speaking to Hoid. Perhaps from the new cryptic spren he picks up?

—————

@Brgst13

thanks for this amazing, organized post. I hadn’t put all the death rattled together before hadn’t read them after finishing Oathbringer. I really enjoyed reading them in your well-thought our format. 

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EDIT: This post is now complete! 

I was motivated by this WoB to do some deeper analysis of the Death Rattles:

Quote

Mason Wheeler [PENDING REVIEW] (paraphrased)

It seems like the Diagram Cult derives their entire moral authority for the atrocities they commit from the notion that "this is a very, very smart plan."

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW] (paraphrased)

Basically, yeah.

Mason Wheeler [PENDING REVIEW] (paraphrased)

And they're filling in the gaps with information gleaned from Death Rattles, despite knowing full well that they're coming from one of Odium's Unmade spren. This seams very, very dumb. Have they ever considered the possibility that they could be being fed disinformation?

Brandon Sanderson [PENDING REVIEW] (paraphrased)

Yes, but they figure that the benefits of having access to someone who can see the future outweigh that risk. And even if they are being deliberately given bad information, knowing what subjects they're being misinformed about tells them something useful.

Specifically, I wanted to try to analyse the Death Rattles in a similar way to the Diagramitists, to see what patterns I could find from in the Rattles that we have decoded, and then see if that helps us make some intelligent guesses about the Rattles that we haven't yet figured out. Along the way, I hoped to be able to gain some deeper insights into the motivations of Odium, and perhaps any takeaways that Taravangian might have gained. 

My Method:
If you want a detailed explanation of my methods, open the spoiler window here:

Spoiler

I listed and numbered every Death Rattle, along with representative comments from Coppermind and this thread, and labelled each rattle as either Solved or Contested. Where it was solved, I gave a short description of the event it refers to, and where it was contested I gave short descriptions of the most likely events it refers to.

I also worked under the assumption that the Rattles were either Predictions or Revelations (or both). My theory being that the Rattles either foreshadow a future event, or foreshadow the revelation of certain information that is currently unknown to most of the world. 

I then created the following loose groupings based on the event or characters that the rattle is most likely to refer to. I believe this is the most logical way to begin creating groups because it is clear from the solved rattles, and the WoB above, that the rattles focus on a discreet number of subjects. Here are the Primary Categories I came up with:

  • Everstorm/Desolations
  • Knights Radiant
  • Unmade
  • Heralds
  • Szeth
  • Uncertain
  • Not a Rattle

The "Uncertain" category contained all of the Contested Rattles, but also contained a few Solved Rattles for which the subject seemed clear, but the precise event was not agreed upon.

The "Not a Rattle" category included the two examples that were clearly false rattles (the Shin man, and the person who saw a Cryptic), with the expectation that one or more of the remaining Uncontested rattles may be found to be false also. 

I then looked at each rattle individually and added the following information, which I hoped would helped me determine patterns and group the rattles:

  • Characters Referenced: Lists characters directly or indirectly referenced in the rattle
  • Themes Referenced: These where divided in to metaphorical themes and literal themes. (The themes were generated by me, based off my readings of the Rattles, and my broader understanding of SA, so they are admittedly subjective by nature)
  • Emotional Responses: It is clear that the rattles contain not only visual observations, but emotional responses too, suggesting the visions granted by Moelach are extremely immersive. I have tried to Identify the key emotions that the rattle appears to be trying to evoke, although like the themes, these were generated by me and are subjective and not exhaustive.
  • Keywords: Highlights specific words associated with particular themes, events or emotions. (Note, I used the base word to standardise the usage between rattles (e.g. Come = Comes = Coming)

I then used pivot tables in excel to identify the most common Themes, Emotions and Keywords, and look for patterns within and between the Categories identified above. I hoped that this would allow me to do six main things:

  1. Test the Primary Categories I had already created to ensure they held together thematically;
  2. Subdivide them into Secondary Categories, based on specific sets of characters, themes, emotional tone, or word choice;
  3. Make some inferences about which Primary Category the Contested Rattles might fit into, or whether they needed a new category;
  4. Infer the motivations of Odium/Moelach in providing these specific rattles, and framing them the way they do;
  5. Test my theory on Predictions and Revelations;
  6. Make some additional predictions based on all of the above.

The Data:

I have attached the Excel Spreadsheet that I created, in case you want to see my raw data and play around with the pivot tables. I has originally planned to do this in SPSS, to do some more rigorous statistical analysis, but apparently my student license has expired :-(

My Results:
To be honest, the most valuable part of this exercise was the initial work of identifying the main themes, emotions and keywords within the Death Rattles. This surfaced a few clear patterns that made fairly obvious sense when compared side-by-side with other similar rattles. The deeper analysis using pivot tables didn't do much more than confirm some of these patterns. The sample size is just too small, especially since some of the rattles seem to be isolated events anyway. Here are some of the main things I found.

Major Themes:
There was a long list of themes I found in the rattles, all of which you can see in the spreadsheet. Here are my thoughts on the themes that recurred most often:

Spoiler

 

  • "Light/Dark" and "Day/Night"
    These two clearly linked themes were the most common theme, alluded to in at least 11 of 35 quotes. There was very little subtlety about the theme either, with the lines clearly drawn between Odium's forces of Night and Darkness, and the KR and humans associated with Light and Daytime. It is interesting to speculate whether this is because Odium actually associates himself with the Night and Darkness, or whether this is a symptom of the perception of the subjects reporting Moelach's visions.  
  • "Everstorm/Desolation""Odium Wins" and "Coming"
    15 of the 35 quotes referred directly or indirectly to the coming Everstorm/Desolation, or the eventual victory of Odium. These themes tended to go together in rattles that also often referenced the Fused and Storm Form, and were present in all of the quotes in the Everstorm/Desolation Category. The repeated use of the "Coming" theme and keywords in many of these rattles creates a fatalistic sense of doom and inevitability. 
  • "Rebirth"
    This is a common theme in Sanderson's Cosmere, and there are a number of metaphorical allusions to it here. These are predominantly in relation to the rise of the Knights Radiant, but can also be seen in the guise of the "suckling child", Szeth's awakening in the storm, and even Re-Shephir "giving birth to abominations" (although I might be stretching it a little with that last one). As they are all metaphorical, this can get a little subjective and tricky, and perhaps it is better to think of this as renewal or continuity, rather than as a literal return from the dead. The return of the KR, or the new life offered by a child. This gives many of the rattles a hopeful tone, especially those associated with the rise of the KR (and Kaladin in particular), which is in stark contrast to the sense of despair, horror, fear and fatalism that drenches the majority of the quotes. This should give us pause if we are searching for motives in the rattles. Why encourage any hope at all? And why direct that hope toward the fledgling radiants, and Kaladin in particular ... ?
  • "Moral Confusion"
    A number of characters are troubled by moral ambiguities and devil's bargains in the scenes described in the rattles: Kaladin faces it and overcomes it in Rattle number 32, while Szeth spins and grieves as he falls. Four of the Uncertain rattles also seem linked by the theme of moral confusion. As I have theorised earlier in this thread, I suspect three of them refer to Taravangian, and a future decision he will be forced to make by Odium. It's easy to see how playing up the moral ambiguities might play into Odium's favour, by Taravangian's confidence in . The other rattle, number 14, reminds me of the moment Kaladin freezes in the battle in Kholinar, but it could easily refer to another event we are yet to see. 

Breaking Down the Categories:
This is the guts of my analysis, going through each category and discussing the interesting points. I won't cover every rattle, as many of them are already well understood, but I'll go into detail where I think I can add something to the discussion.

Everstorm/Desolation:
This was the biggest category, containing 12 of the 35 quotes. In some ways it's least interesting to us now though, because we have read past these events and solved most of the rattles (with one exception). The most striking feature of this group was the sustained intensity of the emotional responses that it evoked, focusing on Fear, Fatalism, Despair and Horror. Clearly these rattles were a form of pre-war posturing, intended to frighten the wits out of whoever heard them, and convince them to give up before the fight ever starts. Half of the rattles clearly refer to the Everstorm and the Desolation directly. Four shine a horrible dark light on the Voidbringers, with the rasping singing of Storm Form, and the burning rage and vengeful spite of the Fused and the Thunderclasts. Two rattles refer more generally to Odium's final victory in inevitable terms.

The Contested rattle (Number 9: "Victory! We stand atop the mount! ...") has features of all three secondary categories: it seems to be from the perspective of the Fused, with their characteristic rage and vengefulness; it seems to tell the story of Odium's victory; but it may also refer to the a general victory early in the Desolation. Even if I can't pinpoint the "victory on the mount" event, one thing I am sure of is that it fits thematically and emotionally with the other rattles in the Everstorm/Desolation category, and is therefore almost certainly a prediction of a victory for Odium, rather than a flashback to a previous desolation as has been suggested.

Knights Radiant:
This category currently contains 5 rattles, 4 of which have generally agreed explanations. These 4 I have labelled "Rise of the Radiants", although I could easily have flagged them as Kaladin's Journey, as they focus on him almost exclusively (Shallan gets a brief mention as one of two 'dead men' coming from the pit). As I alluded to above in my discussion of the Rebirth theme, the common emotion in this group of rattles is Hope, accompanied by Defiance, Determination and Awe. The negative emotions associated with Odium (fear, horror, despair, confusion) are evoked here only as representations of challenges to be overcome. It is also worth noting the verb chooses in these rattles. Kaladin is always described acting positively; he "stands", "speaks", "drinks", "saves", "protects", "raises" and "picks up". They are decisive, progressive actions that are in stark contract to the passive actions of humans and Heralds in other rattles, who "sit", "weep", "grieve", "fall" and "die", "die", "die". 

Three of the rattles are, I believe specifically about Kaladin, and his progression through the oaths. This is one example where a side-by-side comparison of the themes and emotional tone has helped a lot. I have presumptuously marked all these three as Solved, even though there is some debate still about two of them. They are:

  • Rattle 15: He must pick it up, the fallen title! The tower, the crown, and the spear!
  • Rattle 22: Above the final void I hang, friends behind, friends before. The feast I must drink clings to their faces, and the words I must speak spark in my mind. The old oaths will be spoken anew
  • Rattle 32: All is withdrawn for me. I stand against the one who saved my life. I protect the one who killed my promises. I raise my hand. The storm responds.

Rattle 15 metaphorically identifies the three pivotal moments in Kaladin's path to become a Knight Radiant: The first is speaking the 2nd Ideal at the Battle of the Tower in WoK; The second speaking the third Ideal and saving Elhokar (the Crown) in WoR; and the third is forming his Shardspear and battling Szeth in the storm. 

Rattle 22 is uncontested, and clearly refers to Kaladin speaking his second Ideal in the Battle of the Tower, as explained in the Coppermind notes.

For Rattle 32, I agree with the summary provided by @Fulminato in this post, which shows that Moash is the one who saved his life, Elhokar is the one who broke his promises, and therefore the rattle refers to the moment Kaladin speaks the Third Ideal in WoR.

The fourth rattle is different (No. 27: "They come from the pit ...", in that it references Kaladin and Shallan coming out of the chasms from the point of view of a third person. It therefore illustrates the awe and hope that the rise of the KR can inspire in others.

The fifth, contested rattle (number 9: "Ten people, with Shardblades alight, standing ...") projects hope too, although the odds seem less in the KR's favour. It is probable that this scene refers to the Battle of the Fields at the end of OB, but I've left it contested while we work out the details of who the ten actually are. I'm afraid that I don't have anything to add to that discussion, other than I believe it fits thematically and emotionally with this group of rattles, especially with the references to "light" and "standing".

There are two Uncertain rattles that seem to refer to the KR as well, but neither contain the hopeful, rising tone of the other five. The first, (rattle no. 3: "Ten orders. We were loved, once ...") is much more ambiguous, with an appeal to the Almighty ("Where have you gone?") and the curious phrase "Shard of my soul" which might equally refer to a Nahel spren, or the death of Jezrien. Thematically and emotionally, this rattle is more consistent with the Herald rattles, with expressions of loss, regret, grief, and fallen glory. I therefore believe this cold be a pair with rattle no 16 ("The burdens of nine become mine ...") which references Taln at his breaking point. Taln appeals to the Almighty in both quotes, as he was in Braize when Honor was splintered and may not consciously be aware that he is gone. "Shard of my soul, where have you gone?" would therefore refer to his moment of realisation that Honor is dead. 

The other uncertain rattle (number 23, "The death is my life ...") is a simple re-working of the first Ideal, turning it inside out to suggest failure. The sample is considered suspect by the Silent Gatherers, and given it's origin, from a "scholar of some minor renown", I tend to take this suspicion at face value and agree that these may actually be the pre-prepared, and presumably poignant last words of an in-world Knights Radiant history geek. They do not match thematically or emotionally with the other rattles about the KR, so seem counter to the motivation theory of the Death Rattles. For context, Brandon included this quote in the Chapter 60 Epigraph, directly after Kaladin and Teft discuss the first Ideal in detail, and right before Dalinar has a vision with a downcast Nohadon, in the wake of a terrible Desolation. Given that it seems designed more as a thematic and emotional bridge between these two chapters, and that it is extremely abstract, with no recognisable references to either a possible event or a character (which all the legit rattles have), I conclude it's a red herring. 

Heralds:
The two solved rattles in this group obviously focus on Taln and Ash, with clear references to madness. Ash's madness manifests as she "sits and scratches out her own eyes" -- a form of self-harm -- and is illustrative of her fall from glory and the overwhelming regret, grief and self-loathing that she feels. In Taln's case, the burden of taking on the tortured madness of all of the Heralds for 4500 years finally gets to him and he appeals to the Almighty for release. As I mentioned above, I believe this pairs with Rattle no. 3, to give us a picture of Taln's breaking and subsequent discovery of Honor's death. 

There's something else very interesting about these three rattles though, centred on the phrase "Why must I carry the madness of them all?" In the WoR Prologue, Jasnah overhears Nale and Kelek(?) openly discussing the fact that Ash, Jezrien and they themselves were "getting worse". This seems to signal some connection between the mental states of the nine Heralds on Roshar and Taln on Braize. I'm not the best person to speculate on the Realmatic mechanics of Connection between highly invested Cognitive Shadows like the Heralds, but it seems clear that after 4500 years of torture, Taln's deteriorating resolve correlated with a sharp decline in the mental stability of his companions. 

The other Uncertain rattle that has been suggested might relate to the Heralds is the very first quote, from the prologue of WoK. The sample is described as questionable by the Silent Gatherers, and it is true that it most closely resembles the other non-rattles in form and content. Most notably, it begins with the speaker announcing their own death, as do the other two. However, unlike the other two, it doesn't provide any clear evidence that the words spoken are not those intended by Moelach. In contrast, the phrase "while the sun is still hot" seems like a reference to the Night/Day theme, which is very common in the other rattles. Additionally, the formulation of the final words "I die" fits in with the first person, present tense structure of the true rattles. So could this be Jezrien? Sure! The surprise at being "while the Sun is still hot" certainly fits. If we consider night to be a metaphor for the final victory of Odium, then Jezrien's death before the sun has set on Roshar would be a surprise to him. The use of the word "bastards" might also fit with his current drunken state. So it could fit. But it's not entirely convincing, and I'm going to leave it up to debate. 

The Unmade:
There are three clear rattles referencing the Unmade, and one Uncertain rattle that appears likely. Re-Shephir, Dai-Gonarthis and the Black Piper are each named and revealed clearly, although there is still speculation about the true natures of Dai-Gonarthis and the Black Piper, neither of whom we've seen on screen yet (at least not obviously). A few themes and emotions are noteworthy across the three rattles. The Unmade are all associated with night and or darkness. They all either "watch", "consume", or "hold" humans in some way. The tell-tale emotion is horror, alongside fear, paranoia and despair.  Much like the rattles about the Voidbringers, the motive of these quotes seems to be less about warning, and more about intimidating.  

The Uncertain rattle (No. 25: "The darkness becomes a palace. Let it rule! Let it rule!") has been linked by some (including me) to the Palace in Kholinar, and the Unmade who captured it. Yelig-nar, Ashertmarn and Sja-anat could all be said to have come to the palace, and the "Let it rule" cry sounds similar to the cult of spren that sprung up in the city. The rattle doesn't fit the pattern of the other Unmade quotes though, and it is aligned much more closely with the triumphal tone of the rattles predicting Odium's final victory. This isn't necessarily to say that the Kholinar explanation is wrong, but I think it more likely that the darkness is a more general reference to Odium, the palace a modern incarnation of the fortress we've seen in Dalinar's visions, and the "rule", that of Odium himself.

Szeth:
This isolated rattle seems straightforward in its reference to Szeth's defeat in the storm against Kaladin. I don't think it necessarily references his resurrection though, as some have argued for or against, but see "awaken" as a reference to his acceptance that the Radiants have returned, and that he was not truthless. 

The Uncertain Rattles:
This is where it gets interesting. I have already discussed 4 of the 9 Uncertain rattles above. I allocated one to the Odium's Final Victory category, one to the Heralds category, one to the Not a Rattle category, and one I've still left Uncertain.

I have divided the remaining 5 into two main groups: 

  1. Taravangian's Choice: Three rattles that detail a future choice T will make, as I discussed above in the Moral Confusion theme;
  2. Isolated Events: Two rattles that refer to pivotal characters and events, but which don't fit directly with another category. The Szeth rattle would fit into this group too. 

I don't want to delve too much into the Taravangian quotes again, as I feel I've already pushed my theories on that enough. I did find, however, that the themes, emotional responses, and keywords supported the linking of these three rattles. It also has to be noted that rattle 35 ("So the night will reign, for the choice of honor is life...") was spoken on screen directly to Taravangian. I wasn't able to find anything that helped determine who the Child might be, although the detailed nature of the rattles suggests they are literal, not metaphorical, descriptions of future events.

Turning to the two remaining Isolated Events, I was interested to know whether I could find any links between them, or the other categories, but I couldn't discern anything definitive. 

Rattle 14: "I'm standing over the body of a brother. I'm weeping. Is that his blood or mine? What have we done?"
As I mentioned in the Moral Confusion theme above, this is thematically similar to the Taravangian quotes. It also shares references to weeping, blood on hands, and regret for our choices. Beyond that, the events described seem entirely unconnected. I also suggested above that this rattle could refer to Kaladin's moment of freezing in Kholinor as he watches friends (brothers?) on all sides kill each other. It is thematically and emotionally different to Kaladin's hope-inspiring Knights Radiant rattles though, which suggests that the motivation behind this vision is different too. 

Rattle 34: "Above silence, the illuminating storms—dying storms—illuminate the silence above."
This is the only rattle in ketek form, and is a frustratingly abstract as all the ketek poems I've seen. The themes, emotions and keywords don't match it up strongly to any of the other rattles either. The main clue here is actually the phrase "the silence above", which is also the title of Part Five of the WoK. In this section of WoK Dalinar sees the final vision and learns that Honor is dead. The silence above therefore refers to Honor's death. The illuminating storms refer to highstorms in two senses: the source of stormlight; and the source of the visions, which illuminate the truth for Dalinar. Therefore I see this rattle as predicting Dalinar's visions and learning of Honor's death. 

Conclusions

  • I think I've justified that most of the rattles fall into a few discreet categories (with a few outliers), based on the events that they predict, and that these groups of rattles share common themes, emotional tones and keywords.
  • Given this fact, it's safe to assume that their are deliberate motives behind the rattles.
  • I believe all of the rattles are forward looking, although a few, notably the Heralds and Unmade rattles, are primarily revelatory in nature, describing the characters and foreshadowing their re-emergence into the world.

Open questions:

  • Why are the KR rattles, and specifically the Kaladin ones, so hopeful and inspiring? What motivation could Odium have for framing the Knights Radiant in such a positive light, when the Heralds and other humans are all made to seem weak, mad, and unreliable. It appears that Odium is manoeuvring T towards the KR, perhaps in the belief that they are a weak spot that can be exploited. Or is Kaladin in line to become the next champion? (I don't think so, but it's a theory that's out there!)
  • Who are the Ten people holding shards alight?
  • Is that Jezrien calling his killers bastards?
  • Who is the Black Piper and what tune is he playing?
  • Who is the suckling child, and is it Taravangian with a blade to his throat? (And why?)
  • Where is will/did the victory on the mount happen?
  • Which palace does the darkness become?
  • Who are the fighting brothers?

 

Death Rattle Analysis.xlsx

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@Varion I love this analysis!

I particularly like how you are approaching the ambiguities of these death rattles like Smart Taravangian and the Diagramatists would approach them, through scholarly statistical analysis.

I especially appreciate the analysis of the words used in the rattles, I think this is a useful and meaningful framework to use to try find particular categories of Rattles and to figure out which rattles fit into which category.

I think though that there is an operational component to Moleach's extraction of death rattles that the Diagramitists account for that your analysis fails to take into account.

This is in the realm of speculative surmise to be sure, but I think the fact that you get a brief historiography of the person who is dying along with a statement of whether the rattle is dubious or of special note is significant. The death rattle is coming from a particular individual who has led a particular life. We know (from WoB's and from in world text) that everyone has a Spiritweb. The fact that it is a web implies that it is primarily a structure built of Connection. How I see Moleach's extraction of death rattles working is that anyone within his area of effect is subject to a close scrutiny of these Spiritual Connections, and tracing them along the path of what they are connected to in the future grants Moleach and consequently Odium a glimpse of what is to come. I think the diagramatist distinction of dubious might come from the fact that in their analysis of the rattle they are checking to see if the source of the rattle could possibly be connected enough to the events that are mentioned that there is a chance of true correlation, and if the analysis shows that this connection does not likely exist then the rattle is likely to be misinformation from the enemy.

One of the only characters that we have met who had a death rattle is Maps, and he died during the battle of the Tower. Here is his death rattle:

Quote

And all the world was shattered. The rocks trembled with their steps, and the stones reached towards the heavens. We die! We die!

We have no information about what his previous life was, but we do know that he was a bridgeman that had been fighting on the shattered plains. The "And all the world was shattered" bit seems to echo his experience on the shattered plains, this might be why his connection allows him to see on his deathbed into the future and glimpse a similar event when some other portion of Roshar is shattered like the Shattered Plains are currently shattered.

Like I said before, I love your analysis, the two things that I would love to see added to your spreadsheet are the source of the rattle (usually mentions age and profession) and the diagramatist qualifier (dubious, of exceptional note, or none specified).

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28 minutes ago, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

Like I said before, I love your analysis, the two things that I would love to see added to your spreadsheet are the source of the rattle (usually mentions age and profession) and the diagramatist qualifier (dubious, of exceptional note, or none specified).

I love the analysis too   @Varion and if you are adding things, I would add the month as well. As I wonder if the month corresponds to a person associated with that Herald that the rattle is telling the future about. 

1.) Collected on Chachabah 1171, 10 seconds pre-death (#3 Chach)

2.) Collected on Shashahes 1171, 31 seconds pre-death (#6 Shash)

 3.) Collected on Kakashan 1171, 5 seconds pre-death (#8 Kak)

4.) Collected on Tanatesev 1171, 30 seconds pre-death (#9 Tanat)

5.) Collected on Jesanach 1172, 11 seconds pre-death (#1 Jes) 

This I think is true in #17 as I think it will refer to a future child of Shallan — who is a radiant under Shash and shares the SHA’s in their names  

Quote
17. “I hold the suckling child in my hands, a knife at his throat, and know that all who live wish me to let the blade slip. Spill its blood upon the ground, over my hands, and with it gain us further breath to draw. ”
— Collected on Shashanan 1173, 23 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a darkeyed youth of sixteen years. Sample is of particular note.[24]

 

I’ve also wondered if rattles listed as seconds that are divisible by 5 or 10 should be categorized together for some yet unknown reason. 

But perhaps I’m off my rocker and only looking for things that are not there. 

 

 

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On 1/10/2018 at 6:26 PM, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

This is in the realm of speculative surmise to be sure, but I think the fact that you get a brief historiography of the person who is dying along with a statement of whether the rattle is dubious or of special note is significant. The death rattle is coming from a particular individual who has led a particular life. We know (from WoB's and from in world text) that everyone has a Spiritweb. The fact that it is a web implies that it is primarily a structure built of Connection. How I see Moleach's extraction of death rattles working is that anyone within his area of effect is subject to a close scrutiny of these Spiritual Connections, and tracing them along the path of what they are connected to in the future grants Moleach and consequently Odium a glimpse of what is to come. I think the diagramatist distinction of dubious might come from the fact that in their analysis of the rattle they are checking to see if the source of the rattle could possibly be connected enough to the events that are mentioned that there is a chance of true correlation, and if the analysis shows that this connection does not likely exist then the rattle is likely to be misinformation from the enemy.

This is a really interesting idea. I had not given any consideration at all to the mechanism by which Moelach caused the visions, but it makes a lot of sense that the subjects Spirit Web might be important. We know from the Diagram that Moelach "touches" the soul of people as they are dying, and uses the "spark of death" to power the visions. I had previously taken that to mean that the vision was generated by Moelach, and the souls he touched were only needed as a sort of spiritual battery, but it's possible that there's more to it. Here's the quote form the Diagram:

Quote

Book of the 2nd Desk Drawer

There is one you will watch. Though all of them have some relevance to precognition, Moelach is one of the most powerful in this regard. His touch seeps into a soul as it breaks apart from the body, creating manifestations powered by the spark of death itself. But no, this is a distraction. Deviation. Kingship. We must discuss the nature of kingship.

—Paragraph 15

I actually did include in the spreadsheet the notes from the Silent Gatherers, including the subject, their brief history and the date of death. It's in the Origin tab, but it was easily missed because I shrunk it to see the more of the other columns. And I did also refer to these notes a couple of times, where I thought it was relevant. I just thought they were relevant for less realmatic reasons. Here are the examples I took note of when doing my analysis:

WoK Prologue
"You've killed me. Bastards, you've killed me! While the sun is still hot, I die!"
— Collected on Chachabah 1171, 10 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a darkeyed soldier thirty-one years of age. Sample is considered questionable.

Why Relevant: The notes consider this rattle suspect, but I disagree. I believe they thought it was suspect because the language, and the word "bastards" in particular, was out of character with the other rattles, and also because it is possible he's just talking about his own death (see below). But I believe the reference to the sun (Day/Night theme) shows it's legit. I figure "Bastards" is an expression borrowed directly from Jezrien. Getting meta, the fact that this quote was placed prominently atop the Prologue of WoK, right after we've seen Jezrien abandon the Oathpact in the Prelude, and before we catch a glimpse of him drunk in treaty party, lends weight to it being a legit rattle, with some connection to Jezrien. 

WoK Chapter 4
"I'm dying, aren't I? Healer, why do you take my blood? Who is that beside you, with his head of lines? I can see a distant sun, dark and cold, shining in a black sky."
— Collected on Jesanach 1172, 11 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a Reshi chull trainer. Sample is of particular note.

Why Relevant: Obviously this is of "particular note" because it is not a rattle at all, but a glimpse of something else. I didn't delve into the cryptic he sees, or the fact that he is obviously seeing into the CR, but my feeling is that he was a proto-radiant. I know others have different theories on this. What I will point out about this non-rattle is that the speaker clearly references the real world multiple times, proof he's not having a vision. This is important because it gives us (and the Silent Gatherers) clues about what is a true rattle and what is not. As I stated above, I think this may have contributed to their suspicion on the "You've killed me" quote.

WoK Chapter 6
"I'm cold. Mother, I'm cold. Mother? Why can I still hear the rain? Will it stop?"
— Collected on Vevishes 1172, 32 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a lighteyed female child, approximately six years old.

Why Relevent: This is an interesting one because the girl clearly references real world things (She is cold, and wants her mother), but she also hears a storm that isn't there. The age of the girl is what is relevant here. She is too young to understand the vision or describe it properly. It's true that there's a younger girl later who speaks a much more complicated rattle though, so perhaps I'm wrong here.

WoK Chapter 57
"I hold the suckling child in my hands, a knife at his throat, and know that all who live wish me to let the blade slip. Spill its blood upon the ground, over my hands, and with it gain us further breath to draw."
— Collected on Shashanan 1173, 23 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a darkeyed youth of sixteen years. Sample is of particular note.[24]

Why Relevant: I believe the sample is of note because they Diagramists noted the similarities to the older rattle, which referenced an infant child, a man crying, and the destruction of Khabranth. They would have been on the look out for any other rattles that may have given more context as that first prediction probably to Taravangian (who lets be honest, does cry a lot). 

WoK Chapter 60
"The death is my life, the strength becomes my weakness, the journey has ended."
— Observed on Betabanes, 1173, 95 seconds pre-death, collected secondhand and later reported to the the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a scholar of some minor renown. Sample considered questionable.

Why Relevant: I explained my theory on this in my previous post. Basically I think it's just a scholar's pre-prepared final words, and I agree with the Silent Gatherers that it is questionable, especially since it was reported secondhand. 

WoK Chapter 63
"I wish to sleep. I know now why you do what you do, and I hate you for it. I will not speak of the truths I see."
— Collected on Kakashah 1173, 142 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a Shin sailor, left behind by his crew, reportedly for bringing them ill luck. Sample largely useless.

Why Relevant: A suppressed rattle that may be useless to the Silent Gatherers, but which gives us a little insight into the the whole process, and also sparks some questions about why a Shin man was able to recognise what was going on when no one else could. 

WoK Chapter 68
"They named it the Final Desolation, but they lied. Our gods lied. Oh, how they lied. The Everstorm comes. I hear its whispers, see its stormwall, know its heart."
— Collected on Tanatanes 1173, 8 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was an Azish itinerant worker. Sample of particular note.

Why Relevant: This is an Azish man, and therefore not an adherent of Vorinism. Yet he refers to the Heralds as "our gods". I suspect this was of particular note because it demonstrates that the words spoken in the visions don't actually align with the beliefs of the speakers. This may also be true for the "Three of Sixteen ruled, but the Broken One reigns" rattle, which was spoken by a man of "partial Iriali descent". 

OB - In one of the Taravangian chapters! 
"So the night will reign, for the choice of honor is life..."
— Observed circa Ishi 1173 by Taravangian. Subject was King Valam of Jah Keved.

Why Relevant: Because it was spoken to Taravangian, and speaks of a choice, a major them of the other two Taravnagian quotes

Having gone through these again quickly, I don't see too much evidence that the speakers are important beyond what I have noted above. I certainly don't see any strong patterns linking profession, ethnicity, age, or personal history to the subject of the rattle. But it's worth a deeper look. 

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9 hours ago, Varion said:

OB - In one of the Taravangian chapters! 
"So the night will reign, for the choice of honor is life..."
— Observed circa Ishi 1173 by Taravangian. Subject was King Valam of Jah Keved.

Why Relevant: Because it was spoken to Taravangian, and speaks of a choice, a major them of the other two Taravnagian quotes

Having gone through these again quickly, I don't see too much evidence that the speakers are important beyond what I have noted above. I certainly don't see any strong patterns linking profession, ethnicity, age, or personal history to the subject of the rattle. But it's worth a deeper look. 

This was a WoR quote, not OB.

Also, I believe it is a reference to Kaladin killing Syl as he fell into the chasm.

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7 minutes ago, Bort said:

This was a WoR quote, not OB.

You're right. Definitely WoR. My mistake.

Disagree completely about it being Kaladin and Syl though. For a few reasons:

  1. Night is a very common metaphor attached to Odium and throughout the quotes, and the word "reign" or "rule" is used in multiple rattles, always seeming to refer to Odium's final victory. "So the night will reign", suggests a much larger victory for Odium than the death of one Honor Spren.
  2. There are rattles predicting Kaladin's continued rise as a Knights Radiant after Syl's "death" -- specifically the "All is withdrawn" quote -- which directly contradict the assertion that "night will reign" as a consequence of Syl's death.
  3. Honor isn't capitalised, so the reference here isn't to the god, or to Syl, one of his spren, or even to Kaladin, one of his "sons". It is a reference to the everyday meaning of the word honor - an honorable choice. Kaladin's desperate attempt to draw in stormlight as he fell wasn't an honorable choice. But if this is linked to the "Suckling child" and "A man stood watching" rattles, then it's easy to see that the honorable choice would be to spare the baby's life. 
  4. The use of the word "choice" links it strongly with the "Suckling child" and "A man stood watching" quotes, which both heavily imply a difficult moral choice will have to be made. 

 

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@Varion again, that's some top notch analysis!

I think that Taravangian's writing from the 2nd Desk Drawer and the words of the dying Shin sailor (quoted and spoilered below) are the two best primary sources we have for how the Death Rattles actually work:

Spoiler
19 hours ago, Varion said:

Book of the 2nd Desk Drawer

There is one you will watch. Though all of them have some relevance to precognition, Moelach is one of the most powerful in this regard. His touch seeps into a soul as it breaks apart from the body, creating manifestations powered by the spark of death itself. But no, this is a distraction. Deviation. Kingship. We must discuss the nature of kingship.

—Paragraph 15

and

19 hours ago, Varion said:

WoK Chapter 63
"I wish to sleep. I know now why you do what you do, and I hate you for it. I will not speak of the truths I see."
— Collected on Kakashah 1173, 142 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a Shin sailor, left behind by his crew, reportedly for bringing them ill luck. Sample largely useless.

From these primary sources I think we can make the following general assertions about how Death Rattles work:

  1. A death rattle is an involuntary vision that a dying Rosharan experiences when their "soul ... breaks apart from the body". (Analysis spoilered below)
    Spoiler

    Given that we know that Szeth continued to obey his Oathstone though it was tearing his soul apart to do so, I think that it's a safe assumption to make that the Shin religion instills a certain strength of will. So when the Shin Sailor sees his death rattle vision, even though it was involuntary, he uses willpower to keep from speaking his vision aloud to spite the Silent Gatherers. But the fact that he sees a vision and doesn't communicate it implies that the vision was involuntary.

  2. The manifestation of the vision requires some form of Energy to manifest "powered by the spark of death itself."

And given the additional fact that in WoR, Maps has a death rattle on the Shattered Plains while Moleach was in Jah Keved (most likely drawn there by the rampant deaths brought about by the civil war), we can make the following assertions about how death rattles work in relation to Moleach:

  1. Death rattles occur without Moleach being present.
  2. Moleach's area of effect increases the likelihood of a Death Rattle occurring.
  3. Moleach increases the occurrence of Death rattles by "seep[ing] into [the] soul" of a dying Rosharan.

From these assertions we can make educated inferences about what is actually going on.

Moleach is increasing the occurrence of death rattles by interacting directly with the soul of the dying, his touch on the soul of the dying is doing one of the following 3 things:

  1. Listening in on the Spiritual Connections of the souls of the dying, to essentially tap the Spiritual Connection line of the dying individuals to gain access to the visions fueled by the spark of death.
  2. Manipulating the soul and Spiritual Connections of the dying to increase the likelihood of the visions, but still just attempting to gain access to the visions.
  3. Manipulating the soul and Spiritual Connections of the dying to gain access to the vision of the dying and to possibly alter the manifestation of the vision of the dying to spread misinformation.

I think the 2nd is the most likely and that the 3rd is the most unlikely, I think that what Moleach is really doing is harvesting visions of the future for his master Odium and that the inadvertent consequence of his touch/manipulation of the souls of dying causes the Death Rattles to occur more frequently. Death rattles in their natural state are very uncommon, and the sheer level of Machiavellian inhumanity that is shown by T and the Silent Gatherers is probably something that Odium never thought would occur (because, holy crap, that's terrible!), so the inadvertent consequence of the death rattles giving others access to visions of the Future probably never occurred to Odium.

I think your analysis @Varion of the distinctions that the Silent Gatherers use to classify a rattle as questionable or of particular note is very good, the questionable is the qualifier for not believing that a particular rattle is a genuine death rattle, and the of particular note is used to signify that it is a key piece of information that relates to their larger objectives.

This is the part that is purely speculative, but this is how I view Moleach.

I think that Moleach is a gigantic black miasmatic spider with 10,000 legs that he uses to probe the souls of the sick and dying. Using his sickly, vaporous black legs he touches the Spirit Webs of the souls of the dying, possibly even affecting how violently they break apart. At the point of near death, when the thousands of Spiritual Connection lines finally start to snap, the elastic stored energy of the connections of the Spirit Web is released and this allows information from a thousand different connections to flow back to the soul of the dying, and this aggregate information flowing back along these breaking Connection lines is what creates the Vision. Moleach sees this vision as it occurs to gather one more glimpse of the future for his master Odium.

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1 hour ago, .S.A.M.K.M said:

The quote about death makes me think of the movie, "Paycheck". How a device to see the future led to nuclear war, being able to see the future destroyed them.

That's one of the dangers of seeing the future, as explored in this theory ([OB]The Dangers of Seeing the Future) by @RShara, it's the tangling of cause and effect that happens that messes everything up. Did your glimpse into the future set you onto the path where you live out that future? If you glimpse the future, do you have the capacity to change it, or are you like the cyclops in Krull, only saddened by your knowledge of the inevitability of the future?

If you haven't read By His Bootstraps by Robert H. Heinlein, you should really do that, it's possibly the best short story written about the paradox of time travel. There's actually an amazing version of this, performed by Richard Dreyfuss for the radio series Beyond 2000X (hosted by Harlan Ellison) and it's REALLY good. 

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@hoiditthroughthegrapevine, I'm loving the fact that you have such a different ideas on the underlying mechanics of Death Rattles. It's making me realise how many blind assumptions I made, and forces me to question them. Let me try to respond to each point and see if we can take it further.

Points the first: Inferences from the Diagram and the Shin man:

15 hours ago, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

I think that Taravangian's writing from the 2nd Desk Drawer and the words of the dying Shin sailor (quoted and spoilered below) are the two best primary sources we have for how the Death Rattles actually work:

  Reveal hidden contents
On 1/11/2018 at 1:01 AM, Varion said:

Book of the 2nd Desk Drawer

There is one you will watch. Though all of them have some relevance to precognition, Moelach is one of the most powerful in this regard. His touch seeps into a soul as it breaks apart from the body, creating manifestations powered by the spark of death itself. But no, this is a distraction. Deviation. Kingship. We must discuss the nature of kingship.

—Paragraph 15

and

On 1/11/2018 at 1:01 AM, Varion said:

WoK Chapter 63
"I wish to sleep. I know now why you do what you do, and I hate you for it. I will not speak of the truths I see."
— Collected on Kakashah 1173, 142 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a Shin sailor, left behind by his crew, reportedly for bringing them ill luck. Sample largely useless.

From these primary sources I think we can make the following general assertions about how Death Rattles work:

  1. A death rattle is an involuntary vision that a dying Rosharan experiences when their "soul ... breaks apart from the body". (Analysis spoilered below)
      Reveal hidden contents

    Given that we know that Szeth continued to obey his Oathstone though it was tearing his soul apart to do so, I think that it's a safe assumption to make that the Shin religion instills a certain strength of will. So when the Shin Sailor sees his death rattle vision, even though it was involuntary, he uses willpower to keep from speaking his vision aloud to spite the Silent Gatherers. But the fact that he sees a vision and doesn't communicate it implies that the vision was involuntary.

  2. The manifestation of the vision requires some form of Energy to manifest "powered by the spark of death itself."

Agreed - Death rattles are involuntary, and the speaker is somehow compelled to speak of what they see. The fact that it was a Shin man who refused to recite the vision is suggestive that the Shin have some ability to resist. Strength of will is a good assumption here, though I am not sure this is the whole story. We know frustratingly little of the Shin and their beliefs, but it is interesting to compare his response to the other, mostly Vorin speakers, who consider predicting the future to be evil, but who all spoke of what they saw. I think this shows that the Shin man had a better understanding of what he was seeing, implying that he had at least some prior knowledge, if not of Moelach directly, then at least of Fortune generally, and the realmatic possibility of seeing visions of the future. 

The scientist in me also cautions about selection bias here -- and there are three layers of selection bias at work here: 

  1. We don't know how many people were received visions through Moelach, but who did not say anything -- perhaps the visions are far more widespread but only a small percentage of people say anything. This would make the Shin man's rattle less an indication of willpower, and more an indication of greater understanding. (I personally don't think it's likely that many -- or even any -- choose not to speak the visions, but just wanted to point out that we don't have enough evidence to discount the possibility.)
  2. We have only seen rattles that were spoken in front of the Silent Gatherers, or on screen in front of our main characters -- if the rattles are being used to influence the people who hear the rattles, then it may be that the emphasis on different messages, themes and tones changes depending on the audience (Personally again, I don't think this is likely as Moelach is described as one of the more Instinctive, rather than sentient Unmade, and any corruption of the visions probably comes from a very simple and generalised playbook programmed into him by Odium);
  3. On the meta-level, Brandon has only shown us a small selection of all the rattles witnessed by the Silent Gatherers -- presumably he has given us a representative sample, and his choice to include the Shin man's rattle is deliberately meant to clue us in to something special about the Shin. (This is clearly the most important level of selection bias, because we actually know that Brandon inserts everything in the books for a purpose, and, contrary to basic statistics, outliers like the Shin man are generally meaningful.)

Agreed: The visions need a power source, and my theory here is that "the spark of death" refers to some part of the Physical aspect of a person being turned into investiture at the point of death. Brandon has been pretty clear that he follows the rules of thermodynamics, just with spiritual investiture thrown into the equation. So matter, energy and investiture can all be transformed into one another, and back again. We may need to ask Brandon directly for confirmation of this, but my guess is that the "spark of death" is a transformation of latent energy in the body into investiture as the soul "breaks apart from the body".

This has some deeper connotations of its own. Is this transfer of energy to investiture simply a lost byproduct of the transition, like the excess body heat of a living person? Or is it a necessary quanta of investiture, essential for the process of stabilising the soul after death, and allowing it to either move into the beyond, or hang around as a Cognitive Shadow? And if the latter, does Moelach's touch effectively destroy (or consume?) the soul of the person? 

Points the Second: Inferences from Maps death

16 hours ago, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

And given the additional fact that in WoR, Maps has a death rattle on the Shattered Plains while Moleach was in Jah Keved (most likely drawn there by the rampant deaths brought about by the civil war), we can make the following assertions about how death rattles work in relation to Moleach:

  1. Death rattles occur without Moleach being present.
  2. Moleach's area of effect increases the likelihood of a Death Rattle occurring.
  3. Moleach increases the occurrence of Death rattles by "seep[ing] into [the] soul" of a dying Rosharan.

Disagree: Maps died in Chapter 57 of WoK and I don't remember any evidence of Moelach in Jah Keved until Valam's death rattle to Tarvangian in Interlude 14 in WoR. It is earlier in that same interlude that Taravagian and Adrotagia first discuss the movement of Moelach away from Alethkar:

Quote
  "Dova reports that the number of Death Rattles we're finding has dropped even further. She didn't find a single one yesterday, and only two the day before."  

–Adrotagia to Taravangian,

  "Moelach moves, then. It is certain now. The creature must have been drawn by something westward."  

–Taravangian to Adrotagia

Words of Radiance, I-14 Taravangian

Unless I missed something about Moelach being in Jah Keved earlier, then I don't agree that there is any evidence that the rattles can occur without Moelach being directly present.

Points the Third: Speculations on the mechanism

16 hours ago, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

Moleach is increasing the occurrence of death rattles by interacting directly with the soul of the dying, his touch on the soul of the dying is doing one of the following 3 things:

  1. Listening in on the Spiritual Connections of the souls of the dying, to essentially tap the Spiritual Connection line of the dying individuals to gain access to the visions fuelled by the spark of death.
  2. Manipulating the soul and Spiritual Connections of the dying to increase the likelihood of the visions, but still just attempting to gain access to the visions.
  3. Manipulating the soul and Spiritual Connections of the dying to gain access to the vision of the dying and to possibly alter the manifestation of the vision of the dying to spread misinformation.

I think the 2nd is the most likely and that the 3rd is the most unlikely, I think that what Moleach is really doing is harvesting visions of the future for his master Odium and that the inadvertent consequence of his touch/manipulation of the souls of dying causes the Death Rattles to occur more frequently. Death rattles in their natural state are very uncommon, and the sheer level of Machiavellian inhumanity that is shown by T and the Silent Gatherers is probably something that Odium never thought would occur (because, holy crap, that's terrible!), so the inadvertent consequence of the death rattles giving others access to visions of the Future probably never occurred to Odium.

Disagree for now, but still open to being convinced, because I like your theories, but I haven't seen enough evidence yet that Moelach is doing anything more than using people as a power source and speaker for his own visions. I actually really like your theory about Moelach harvesting visions for Odium -- this would be a super smart idea for Odium, given that we know even gods see the future imperfectly. And I love your speculation that Fortune is tied to Connection, and operates along an individual's Spiritweb. It's another great question to pose Brandon, to try to tease out whether one's Spiritweb limits and/or directs the visions that one can access. But, absent WoB, let me have a stab at trying to reconcile all this.

This mirrors the discussion over Renarin, and whether his access to Fortune, which is drawn from Odium and channeled through Sja-anat and Glys, is still limited by what Odium can see, or whether Renarin can see visions beyond Odium's perception. The fact that Renarin could not see the possibility that Jasnah would spare his life suggests to me that the version of the future shown in his vision was not dictated by his individual Spiritweb. If that had been the case, surely his visions would have accounted for the strength of familial love in his own cousin?

In Renarin's case, I think we can see that Fortune flows down hill, from gods, to spren, to mortals. And when I say Fortune I don't simply mean the ability to see visions, but the range of possible futures the visions can show too. BUT, that's not to say that Renarin's Spiritweb has nothing to do with the visions -- after all, all the visions he sees are based on events that have some direct connection to him in the future. He's not seeing visions of things yet to happen on the other side of Roshar, or on other planets in the Cosmere. He's seeing events in his own near future, and in the near future of those he is closely connected to. 

So how can I tie this up? Let me think of an analogy. I'm going to use the stained glass nature of Renarin's visions for some inspiration here.

Fortune is like a light that can be used to see into the future. Gods with access to Fortune are like naked light bulbs, with different coloured glass. The light they shine on the future spreads in every direction, but is coloured by their own natures, allowing them to see a lot of things, but also creating blind spots in parts of the spectrum that their light doesn't interact with. Gods can give access to their Fortune-light to lower beings, like spren and mortals, allowing them to see visions of the future themselves. However what these beings see is limited in two ways:

  1. By the colour of the Fortune-light that the god provides, with all the blind spots that brings; and
  2. The shape of their spirit web, which acts like a lampshade over the "light-bulb", allowing light to escape only through holes in the shade. The shape and the size of the holes are dictated by the Spiritweb of the individual, and so the visions they see will be connected to them, and those the have strong Connection to. 

I don't mean that to be a literal interpretation of how Fortune works. When Renarin's vision is described as being "A thousand panes of stained glass sprout[ing] from the walls, combining and melting together, creating a panorama", they are also described as being "full of color" (WoR, chapter 117, pg 1121, US Hardcover edition). So clearly he doesn't just see the visions in one colour. My point is that the potential outcomes he is shown are metaphorically coloured by the source of his Fortune, while his Spiritweb directs which events this lights shines on. 

So, pulling this back to the Death Rattles, when Moelach touches a soul about to die a few things happen:

  1.  The "spark of death" provides the power to turn on the light (the light being Odium's Fortune); 
  2. Moelach acts like a torch, shining this light on the dying soul;
  3. The soul's Spiritweb acts like a hole in a lampshade, letting the light shine through onto future events that they have some Connection to (in the case of the dying person, it obviously isn't a direct personal future, so it must be Connection through location, family, friends, beliefs, etc.);
  4. The last physical act of the soul is to speak of what they see, often in words and linguistic structures that come from beyond their own vocabulary and  literacy level.

Weaknesses of the Spiritweb theory:

Point 4 in the list above still troubles me, with regard to this Spiritweb theory of visions. So many of the visions seem to be told from the point of view of some future third person, and the speaker often clearly uses words and language that is not their own. Are these future people always necessarily Connected to the speaker? How much Connection is required? Or does the soul's Spiritweb simply give a frame around the event, and then it's Moelach who selects the exact vision, the perspective it is shown from, and even the words used to describe it?

Note also, that if this Light-bull/Lampshade theory of Fortune is true, then the idea of Moelach harvesting visions for Odium would be unworkable. 

Points the Fourth: The Silent Gatherer Notes

17 hours ago, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

I think your analysis @Varion of the distinctions that the Silent Gatherers use to classify a rattle as questionable or of particular note is very good, the questionable is the qualifier for not believing that a particular rattle is a genuine death rattle, and the of particular note is used to signify that it is a key piece of information that relates to their larger objectives.

Agreed, naturally

Points the Fifth: Moelach as a spider

18 hours ago, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

This is the part that is purely speculative, but this is how I view Moleach.

I think that Moleach is a gigantic black miasmatic spider with 10,000 legs that he uses to probe the souls of the sick and dying. Using his sickly, vaporous black legs he touches the Spirit Webs of the souls of the dying, possibly even affecting how violently they break apart. At the point of near death, when the thousands of Spiritual Connection lines finally start to snap, the elastic stored energy of the connections of the Spirit Web is released and this allows information from a thousand different connections to flow back to the soul of the dying, and this aggregate information flowing back along these breaking Connection lines is what creates the Vision. Moleach sees this vision as it occurs to gather one more glimpse of the future for his master Odium.

YES! I saw him as a spider too! Obviously I have a different vision of how the visions come about, as I've discussed above, but the spider imagery was there for me too. Jezrien describes him like this though:

Quote

"Moelach is close. I can hear his wheezing, his scratching, his scraping at time like a rat trying to break through walls."

Source: Words of Radiance, Chapter 88 Voices, pg 853 US Hardcover edition

I'm not sure what to make of this. The rat part is clearly a simile, but what of the wheezing, scratching and scraping? And as an aside, do they even have rats on Roshar?

 

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37 minutes ago, Varion said:

Points the Second: Inferences from Maps death

19 hours ago, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

And given the additional fact that in WoR, Maps has a death rattle on the Shattered Plains while Moleach was in Jah Keved (most likely drawn there by the rampant deaths brought about by the civil war), we can make the following assertions about how death rattles work in relation to Moleach:

  1. Death rattles occur without Moleach being present.
  2. Moleach's area of effect increases the likelihood of a Death Rattle occurring.
  3. Moleach increases the occurrence of Death rattles by "seep[ing] into [the] soul" of a dying Rosharan.

Disagree: Maps died in Chapter 57 of WoK and I don't remember any evidence of Moelach in Jah Keved until Valam's death rattle to Tarvangian in Interlude 14 in WoR. It is earlier in that same interlude that Taravagian and Adrotagia first discuss the movement of Moelach away from Alethkar:

Quote
  "Dova reports that the number of Death Rattles we're finding has dropped even further. She didn't find a single one yesterday, and only two the day before."  

–Adrotagia to Taravangian,

  "Moelach moves, then. It is certain now. The creature must have been drawn by something westward."  

–Taravangian to Adrotagia

Words of Radiance, I-14 Taravangian

Unless I missed something about Moelach being in Jah Keved earlier, then I don't agree that there is any evidence that the rattles can occur without Moelach being directly present.

I only have time right now to address this single point, I have to get my daughters off to school, but I will edit this later and address your other points (I'll tag you when I do).

I mis-remembered when Maps died, the fact that he died in TWoK makes it even more certain that Moleach doesn't have to be present for a death rattle to occur because during TWoK Moleach is in Kharbranth! At the very end of TWoK Taravangian gives Szeth a tour of his delightful death rattle factory. Kharbranth is in central Roshar, the Shattered plains are in Eastern Roshar. I don't recall the specific portion of the book that mentions it, but I am pretty sure it's stated somewhere that Moleach has moved to Jah Keved, and if this is the case, he most likely would have moved to Vedenar where the bloodiest battles in the succession war occured. Here's a map showing an Area of Effect circle in red, centered on Kharbranth that encompasses Vedenar. Because Moleach moved, I would tentatively guess that his Area of Effect is half what is depicted.

MoleachAOE.jpg.8669491ce788a10b0c9b44261d1ce543.jpg

The same sized Area of Effect is overlayed in blue and centered on the Shattered Plains, I think this is pretty conclusive proof that Death Rattles can occur without the presence of Moleach.

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8 hours ago, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

I only have time right now to address this single point, I have to get my daughters off to school, but I will edit this later and address your other points (I'll tag you when I do).

Haha, I can't reply properly now because I have to go pick my son up from creche (I live in Paris). But this is an excellent point. The map makes it starkly clear that either:

  1. Moelach's can stretch himself over a vast distance
  2. Moelach has been moving around more than we thought
  3. The death rattles can occur without Moelach present 

New research project!

- Put each death rattle on the map with its date and see what pattern emerges

The google doc by @callumke at This link should help with the dates, from this thread:

EDIT: Research Project complete

So I went and added every date as accurately as I could for each Death Rattle, and sorted them from earliest to latest. I've added a column in my spreadsheet (re-uploaded below) for the date in the format YYYY.M.W.D. So for example, the first Death Rattle chronologically is the one mentioned is the notorious "Bastards, You've killed me" quote, recorded on 1171.3.7.3. 

I used the google doc mentioned above to help translate the dates, and to fill in the gaps I used the chronology put together by @Jofwu in this Google Doc from this thread:

I've also added the locations where they took place:

  • I've assumed all of the rattles collected by the Silent Gatherers happened in Kharbranth, even if they were secondhand sources. 
  • Cenn's Death Rattle occurred in Northern Alethkar, on a border skirmish in Amaram's army
  • Gadol and Maps died on the Shattered Plains
  • Valam died in Vedenar 

The results show very little geographic pattern to Moelach's location, effectively ruling out statement 2 above. The majority of the Death Rattles are recorded in Kharbranth between 1171.3.7.3 and 1173.9.5.2. Cenn's death, Gadol's death, and Maps death all occurred within this time, an all within one month of a rattle recorded in Khabranth. Gadol's death actually occurs just one day before a rattle recorded in Kharbranth.

Valam's death is the final one recorded, in Vedenar, 12 Rosharan weeks (or 1.2 Rosharan months) after the final recorded rattle in Kharbranth, and 14 Rosharan weeks (1.4 Rosharan months) after Map's death on the shattered plains. 

Cenn's death is the most geographically distant rattle recorded, on 1172.9.9.1. The next recorded rattle is 7 Rosharan weeks later, in Kharbranth on 1172.10.6.1

So @hoiditthroughthegrapevine, unless statement number 1 above is correct, and Moelach is able to spread across a vast area of Roshar, this seems to support your theory that Moelach does not actually need to be present at the time of death for a vision to be seen and a rattle to be spoken. 

I must admit, I'm still a little uncertain as to how this may happen. Care to expand on your idea?

 

Death Rattle Analysis V2.xlsx

Edited by Varion
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@Varion finally have time to address some of the excellent points you brought up.

On 1/12/2018 at 6:51 AM, Varion said:

Fortune is like a light that can be used to see into the future. Gods with access to Fortune are like naked light bulbs, with different coloured glass. The light they shine on the future spreads in every direction, but is coloured by their own natures, allowing them to see a lot of things, but also creating blind spots in parts of the spectrum that their light doesn't interact with. Gods can give access to their Fortune-light to lower beings, like spren and mortals, allowing them to see visions of the future themselves. However what these beings see is limited in two ways:

  1. By the colour of the Fortune-light that the god provides, with all the blind spots that brings; and
  2. The shape of their spirit web, which acts like a lampshade over the "light-bulb", allowing light to escape only through holes in the shade. The shape and the size of the holes are dictated by the Spiritweb of the individual, and so the visions they see will be connected to them, and those the have strong Connection to.

I think is a very interesting theory on the mechanics of Future sight, I think the colored light analogy is compelling because it allows the same objective reality to be viewed differently because some of the information is keyed incorrectly to the light and drops away from view, but in actuality is still present.

I have a little harder time with the lampshade analogy, that a spirit web acts like a secondary filter on the primary filter of the colored light, this could just be a symptom of the analogy failing, but if the light Odium is using to look at fortune through the spirit web of an individual near death is being shone into their spirit web, then the holes in their spirit web would be more operational than the connections. Maybe you intended this, as a reason to explain how these death rattles seem to not relate to the individual's spirit web, but it just seems like an awkward means of reading the future. Moleach and Odium would be just as surprised by what they get from the spirit web transmission as the Silent Gathers are, which doesn't seem right to me. This would seem to rob the God-like power of the agency of future sight, if the end result of your attempt to see the future is a random and unpredictable vision. That's like shining a light into a deep body of water to look deeply in the water but instead of seeing into the depths you can only look at the reflections that come off of the surface of the water. They will tell you something about the water, but the agency of the act of investigation has been blunted by the method.

In Dalinar's first vision (and the final one he sees at the end of TWoK, chapter 75) the pre-recording of Honor, long since dead, tells him about how he sees the future"

Quote

"I cannot see the future completely. Cultivation, she is far better at it than I. It's as if the future is a shattering window. The further you look, the more pieces that window breaks into. The near future can be anticipated, but the distant future...I can only guess"

This is an analogy from a Shard, which while imperfect, still is one of only two Shard level views into the mechanics of future sight that we've seen.

Here's a link to a post I did on the Dangers of Seeing the Future thread which goes into a bit more analysis about how this might work extending the analogy of the future as shattering glass (and includes a really god WoB about the shattering glass analogy of future sight):

The other is from Mistborn:Secret History and is spoilered below due to length (this includes Kelsier's moments of future sight and Preservation's comments on future sight in Part 3, Chapter 3, emphasis added):

Spoiler

He reached up with a vaguely outlined hand and seized Kelsier's arm from underneath. Kelsier gasped, then cut off as Preservation grabbed him by the back of the neck with his other hand, locking his gaze with Kelsier's. Those eyes snapped into focus, fuzziness becoming suddenly distinct. A glow burst from them, silvery white, bathing Kelsier and blinding him.

Everything else was vaporized; nothing could withstand that terrible, wonderful light. Kelsier lost form, thought, very being. He transcended self and entered a  place of flowing light. Ribbons of it exploded from him, and though he tried to scream he had no voice.

Time didn't pass; time had no relevance here. It was not a place. Location had no Relevance. Only Connection, person to person, man to world, Kelsier to god.

And that god was everything. The thing he pitied was the very ground Kelsier walked upon, the air, the metals—his own soul. Preservation was everywhere. Beside it, Kelsier was insignificant. An afterthought.
...
"I saw everything," Kelsier mumbled. "Everyone, everything. My Connection to them and...and..."

Spreading into the future, he thought, grasping at an explanation. Possibilities, so many possibilities...like atium.

"Yes," Preservation said, sounding exhausted. "It can be trying to recognize one's true place in things. Few can handle the—"

"Send me back," Kelsier said, scrambling up to Preservation, taking him by the arms.
....
Then the glow spurted to life, and in an instant Kelsier was consumed. This time he forced himself to look away from Preservation—though it was less a matter of looking, and more a matter of trying to sort through the horrible overload of information and sensation that assaulted him.

Unfortunately, in turning his attention away from Preservation, he risked giving it to something else—something equally demanding. There was a second god here, black and terrible, the thing with the spines and spidery legs, sprouting from dark mists and reaching into everything throughout the land.

Including Kelsier.

In fact, his ties to Preservation were trivial by comparison to these of these hundreds of black fingers which attached him to that thing Beyond. He sensed a powerful satisfaction from it, along with an idea. Not words, just an undeniable fact.

You are mine, Survivor.

Kelsier rebelled at the though, but in this place of perfect light, truth had to be acknowledged.

Straining, soul crumbling before that terrible reality, Kelsier turned toward the tendrils of light spreading into the distance. Possibilites upon possibilities, compounded upon one another. Infinite, overwhelming. The future.

He dropped out of the vision again, and this time fell to his knees panting. The glow faded, and he was again on the banks of Lake Luthadel. Preservation settled down beside him and rested his hand on Kelsier's back.

"I can't stop him" Kelsier whispered.

"I know," Preservation said.

"I could see thousands upon thousands of possibilities. In none of then did I defeat that thing."

"The ribbons of the future are never as useful as...as they should be," Preservation said. "I rode them much, in the past. It's too hard to see what is actually likely, and what is just a fragile...fragile, distant maybe..."
...

"Do not trust what you saw," Preservation said, sounding far more firm than he had earlier. "It takes an infinite mind to even begin to glean information from those tendrils of the future. Even they you are likely to be wrong."

This is a substantially different presentation, but Scadrial and all matter and sentient life on the planet was created from Ruin's and Preservation's combined investiture, maybe making the Inter-Connectedness of all created life and matter the Key Spiritual Determinant for future sight on Scadrial.

 

So we have two analogies for how future sight works for two different shards:

  1. Honor's metaphor of a shattering window, where the glass fragments (and implicitly) and the ability to see the future diminish the farther out into the future you go.
  2. Kelsier's and Preservation's analogy of Ribbons of Light Connecting to everything (people to people, people to the world, and people to gods) in an infinite possible configuration of connection. The analogy is used that the sheer number of this possible connections is like the probability clouds of Atium.

 

Along with Renarin's vision during the Battle of Thaylen city (spoilered below):

Spoiler

Renarin had seen that coming.

He knelt in the ancient temple of Pailiah, and to his eyes it was full of colors. A thousand panes of stained glass sprouted on the walls, combining and melting together, creating a panorama. He saw himself coming to Thaylen City earlier in the day. He saw Dalinar talking to the monarchs, and then he saw them turning against him.

there's only one other vision of definite Future Sight in SLA, where Kaladin uses Riino's sphere in Shadesmar while a highstorm is passing overhead (Spoilered below):

Spoiler

Kaladin rode the storm.

He'd done this before, in his dreams. He'd even spoken to the Stormfather.

This felt different. He rode in a shimmmering, rippling surge of colors. Around him the clouds streamed past at incredible speed, coming alight with those colors. Pulsing with them, as if to a beat.

He couldn't feel the Stormfather. He couldn't see a landscape beneath him. Just shimmering colors, and clouds that faded into...light.

Then a figure. Dalinar Kholin, kneeling someplace dark, surrounded by nine shadows. A flash of glowing red eyes.

The enemy's champion was coming. Kaladin knew in that moment—an overpowering sensation, thrumming through him—that Dalinar was in terrible, terrible danger. Without help, the Blackthorn was doomed.

"Where!" Kaladin screamed to the light as it began to fade. "When! How do I reach him!"

The colors diminished.

"Please!"

He saw a flash of a vaguely familiar city. Tall, built along the stones, it had a distinctive pattern of buildings at the center. A wall and an ocean beyond.

So mortals granted access to future sight (on Roshar at least) have given the following 2 analogies of future sight:

  1. A complicated panorama of stain glassed windows that seem to show different specific events in a continuum of time (from past to future).
  2. A shimmering, rippling surge of colors with clouds streaming past and lit up and colored by those colors, and clouds that fade into light, or into a vision of something based on the intended question of the viewer.

CONCLUSIONS BASED ON TEXTUAL EVIDENCE:

From the above collection of primary sources, I think that the following assertions can be made with a fair degree of confidence.

  1. Future sight is of the Spiritual Realm (analysis spoilered below)
    Spoiler

    Kelsier, as a Cognitive Shadow was transported to the Spiritual Realm when Fuzz infused him with energy, Renarin seems to be using Investiture (stormlight, most likely inadvertently because he can't control his visions.) to open windows into the Spiritual Realm to see visions. Kaladin in his vision is transported to a place of color and clouds, seemingly journeys through time and space, but when his vision is done no time in the Cognitive Realm passed while he was experiencing his vision (when his Vision starts Riino is half way through saying a word, and when he comes back Riino finishes his word, heavily implying that he was in a place outside of time.

  2. Future sight is primarily about Spiritual Connection (analysis spoilered below)
    Spoiler

    Kelsier's sees the possibilities of the future as a vast array of probable ribbons, connecting people to people, people to the world and people to the 2 gods of scadrial. Preservation talks about "riding the ribbons of the future", this seems to imply that these connections and the changing network of connections are what the future is made of. Kaladin used his Connection to Dalinar to get a specific glimpse of the future, namely the view of Dalinar bent, broken and nearly succumbing to Odium, which was instrumental in getting Kal, Adolin and Shallan to where Dalinar later opened the Perpendicularity. Renarin's visions are all connected to visions of himself or people that he is deeply Connected to.


     
  3. Future sight seems to need a source of Energy to work (analysis spoilered below)
    Spoiler

    Kelsier is given a direct infusion of Preservation's investiture before both of his future sight visions. Kaladin seems to be getting investiture from the Passing high storm. Riino, before Kaladin's trip into the SR says this about reading his fortune "You wish me to see the unwalked paths—during the highstorm, when realms blend." Renarin is an outlier here, he doesn't intentionally try to see into the future, it's not something he can control, but it still seems probable that he is inadvertently using stormlight (or voidlight?) to do so.

  4. Future sight can be directed by Intent (or if a mortal/cognitive shadow, by willpower and the desire to see something, anlysis spoilered below)

    Spoiler

    Kelsier mentions that during the second trip into the SR to see visions of the future, he was actively looking for a way that he could beat Ruin. This implies that he has the ability to selectively comb through possible outcomes and look for likely results of different probably futures.
    Kaladin is worried about Dalinar, and specifically asks to see visions about Dalinar. In response he sees dalinar kneeling with nine shadows. Realizing this is a bad sign, he asks where he is and given a glimpse of Thaylen city. Renarin has bonded a corrupted spren, so the intent for his future sight probably comes from Sja-Anat, so he is forced to watch visions that demoralize him and make him think that it's time to throw in the towel.

     

WHAT THIS MEANS IN REGARDS TO MOLEACH

I think that Moleach is using the "Spark of Death", the breaking away of the spiritual connections from their mortal tether as the Investiture needed to peer into the Spiritual realm. Further I think he is gazing into the spiritual Realm with the Intent to see visions of interest to his Master Odium (with the inherent limitations on what can be seen through the lens of Odium's Intent.)

I think Taravangian was incredibly smart to study the death rattles because it gives a clear indication into what is of interest to Odium in the possible permutations of the future. @Varion, I think your analysis of the categories that the death rattles fit into are the categories of things that Odium is interested in about how the future will play out. He wants to know how likely his plans are to succeed (The Everstorm/Desolation is a key part of his plan, the Knights Radiant are key obstacles to his plan, the Heralds are key to his escaping the Rosharan system). Some of the other rattles are possibly just information creep, rattling a soul to shake out information is probably a less than precise art, and Moleach is one of the less sapient of the Unmade.

 

ANSWERS TO YOUR QUESTIONS:

On 1/12/2018 at 6:51 AM, Varion said:
Quote

"Moelach is close. I can hear his wheezing, his scratching, his scraping at time like a rat trying to break through walls."

Source: Words of Radiance, Chapter 88 Voices, pg 853 US Hardcover edition

I'm not sure what to make of this. The rat part is clearly a simile, but what of the wheezing, scratching and scraping? And as an aside, do they even have rats on Roshar?

The portion of the simile "like a rat trying to break through walls" is qualifying the nature of how Moleach scrapes at time, to imply that it's pestilent and unwanted I believe, not to imply that Moleach is like a rat.

 

On 1/12/2018 at 8:44 AM, Varion said:

So @hoiditthroughthegrapevine, unless statement number 1 above is correct, and Moelach is able to spread across a vast area of Roshar, this seems to support your theory that Moelach does not actually need to be present at the time of death for a vision to be seen and a rattle to be spoken. 

I must admit, I'm still a little uncertain as to how this may happen. Care to expand on your idea?

So I believe that the "Spark of Death", or energy released when the spirit web is disconnected from it's mortal vessel (most likely through the severing of links between the spiritual essence and the mortal vessel), fuels non-Moelach aided death rattles as well as the Death Rattles Moleach helps to create.

I think that the Cognitive Intent for what the nature of the vision into the spiritual realm is in these cases comes from people around the dying death rattler who are connected to that Individual, or it could possibly come from the dying individual themselves (if they died with something weighing heavily on their soul, this could be enough of a willful directive to function as an Intent).

Edited by hoiditthroughthegrapevine
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1 hour ago, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

I have a little harder time with the lampshade analogy, that a spirit web acts like a secondary filter on the primary filter of the colored light, this could just be a symptom of the analogy failing, but if the light Odium is using to look at fortune through the spirit web of an individual near death is being shone into their spirit web, then the holes in their spirit web would be more operational than the connections.

Yes, this is a failure of the analogy. In my analogy, the spirit web isn't the lampshade, it is the hole in the lampshade. You know those kids night lights that have an opaque covering with stars and moon shapes cut into it, to project those shapes around the room? That's what I was thinking of. In my analogy, the individual's spirit web acts like one of those holes, providing a uniquely shaped aperture for the light to shine through. Either way, it's still an imperfect tool for Odium, because it doesn't reveal anything new to him, just focuses his search on a finite number of Connections.

Don't take my analogy too far though. it's really only illustrative of the way I picture Fortune flowing down from the gods. I like where you are going with your research on how Fortune is experienced around the Cosmere though, so I'll let you keep going with that, because I can see you are still writing and editing this post further ...

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