Varion

Why would anyone come onto a fan theory board and spend so much time constructing a mean-spirited joke about fans sharing their theories? If you disagree with the theory, explain why using evidence from the canon. Hate to see this snide, conversation-stopping attempt at “humour“.

Yes, I believe this is a very valid (and well articulated) interpretation of Cultivation’s plans. It’s certainly a more satisfying narrative than assuming she failed outright, which felt like a big betrayal of her capacity for long term planning. She’s a slow-burn character and I’m sure Brandon has a much bigger payoff in mind for her. However, I do think she legitimately tried and failed to convince Taravangian to back down from his goals of conquering the Cosmere. She probably knew that it was unlikely to work, or rather, that it was a very low probability outcome, but felt that since there was a chance then she needed to at least try to talk him into a more peaceful path. She even went out of her comfort zone by threatening Taravangian’s family in a desperate bid to make him back down, and seemed genuinely shocked when he sent a tidal wave to destroy Kharbranth himself. (An alternative explanation for her appeals to Taravangian were that they were also designed to nudge him towards Cosmere conquest, in some sort of reverse psychology manipulation, but this seems a bit too cute and unlikely to me.) But these appeals to Taravangian occurred before the Contest of Champions, before Dalinar was able to play whatever part she had planned for him. So while she might have hoped to persuade Taravangian towards peace, she clearly always had contingency plans in place, just like Taravangian had contingencies in place for his debate with Jasnah and Fen. Knowing that the most likely future outcome was that Taranvangian would decide to conquer the Cosmere, Cultivation had long put in place one or two or even more contingency plans, based on what she saw to be the most likely paths to thwart Odium’s long term goals. This is why I like your theory that she planned and prepared for Taravangian to take up both Odium and Honor all along. It may not have been her only plan, but it is the plan that ended up coming into fruition. Pushing Dalinar to seek Honor’s power and ascend seems like a necessary step in this plan, as Taravangian likely couldn’t have found the power himself. Indeed, in hindsight, what other plans could she have had in mind for Dalinar once he ascended? Did she expect him to hold the power and attack Taravangian directly, shattering Odium? It seems unlikely, given the great cost to Roshar, and her previous counsel to Tanavast not to do this. Or did she believe in some 3rd path where Honor and Odium existed side-by-side again, in new vessels and a new equilibrium? Also unlikely given the previous balance was always doomed, and she knew Odium would continue to seek war and an escape from Roshar. And if the newly ascended Dalinar was able to clearly see that the Battle of Champions was rigged in Odium’s favor, surely Cultivation could have foreseen this also - and at least seen that Dalinar had the capacity to turn the tables. So yes, the more I consider it, the more I agree with you that the formation of Retribution must have been one of her plans, and perhaps her main goal, if not her preferred outcome.

Good points. Sleepless do seem to be of Roshar. So IF the spaceship theory has any truth to it, then it's most likely the Siah Amians who arrived that way. I said "IF" above in acknowledgement that this is a low probability theory. I've said elsewhere that migration from Ashyn to Roshar via the CR is much more likely. The same is probably true for Siah Amians. But it's a fun idea to play with (and a nice tip of the hat to Anne McCaffery). I really like your earlier post, listing the links between Ba-Ado-Mishram and the moon Mishim. And I agree that there seems to be a suspicious amount of connection between Ishar/Bondsmiths and the moons. But I can't get on board with you theory that Ba-Ado-Mishram was the product of some unholy corruption of Tsa's offspring, and/or somehow the first Siah Aimian. It simply requires too many unlikely or completely unsubstantiated things to occur to even be possible. It is also makes for a very messy, haphazard origin theory for the Unmade, which leaves lots of questions about how the other Unmade came to be. This thread has convinced me that the theory that the Unmade were built using pieces broken off the Heralds is the best explanation we currently have. I am particularly swayed by the idea that the hyphenated names refer to the different pieces taken from the Heralds. It's a clean theory which, with some more data, has the potential to explain a lot about the natures of the Unmade and the madnesses of the Heralds.

BAM! Now that is something I hadn't considered, but makes a huge amount of sense. It gives a very plausible explanation for Hoid's story about the moons: it is a mytholigised account of first contact between the people of Roshar and the alien Aimians, and the interbreeding between them. If this is true, I wonder if the three moons (three spaceships) indicate that there were originally three races of Amian, but one has been lost. No evidence, just a random thought.

I first played with the idea of the Roasharin moons being old Ashyn spaceships in this thread: We discussed the Urithiri WoB and the conclusion was that, while Urithiru was too big because it is effectively a landing rocket, size would be less of an issue if the ships were built in orbit around Ashyn, and then left in Rosharin orbit. If Ashyn had the technology at the time of their cataclysm to build flying cities, then interplanetary arks would be feasible. I still think a migration through the CR is more likely, but I'd love this to be true. Tbis cou The original reference for this idea are the Chronicles of Pern by Anne McCaffery. Brandon has referenced her before as an early influence. Wonderful series if you haven't read them. Thanks for pointing this out @Weltall. I have to recalibrate my mental timeline. I originally assumed that Urithiru was created by a team of Radiants, directed by the Bondsmith bonded to the Sibling. I suppose this could still be true, just pre-Aharietham.

That's a fun idea. You mean like an Oathgate? WoB has already ruled out the Urithiru is a spaceship theory. Can you imagine Kaladin and co. oath-porting to Ashyn and completely freaking out when they see a liquid magma sky? To be honest though, I can't see amy way this is true. While we don't know when Urithiru was built, the best guess was after the Oathpact was broken, when the KR were at their height. By that time all memory and connection with Ashyn was forgotten or mythologised. It's still an open question how humans migrated from Ashyn to Roshar. Through the Cognitive Realm makes most sense, since we know that is possible, amd would have been open to people with surgebinding abilities, as they did. I'm still holding out hope for my theory that the Rosharin moons are old Ashyn spaceships though.

Yes, this is a failure of the analogy. In my analogy, the spirit web isn't the lampshade, it is the hole in the lampshade. You know those kids night lights that have an opaque covering with stars and moon shapes cut into it, to project those shapes around the room? That's what I was thinking of. In my analogy, the individual's spirit web acts like one of those holes, providing a uniquely shaped aperture for the light to shine through. Either way, it's still an imperfect tool for Odium, because it doesn't reveal anything new to him, just focuses his search on a finite number of Connections. Don't take my analogy too far though. it's really only illustrative of the way I picture Fortune flowing down from the gods. I like where you are going with your research on how Fortune is experienced around the Cosmere though, so I'll let you keep going with that, because I can see you are still writing and editing this post further ...

As I said, I absolutely accept the possibility that Taln and Nale's madness are different, perhaps owing to the fact that they "broke" in different ways. But it's also very possible that the underlying cause of their madness is the same, at least in regards to their Spiritual Identity. For example, it is entirely possible that Taln's madness differs from Nale's, and the rest of the Heralds, only in degree. They could in fact all be losing their minds -- or should I say, losing connection with their Spiritual Identity -- in the same way. It's just that 4500 years of torture has advanced Taln's deterioration much further than the others. This could explain why Nale is still cognisant, while Taln is not. (I also disagree that Taln doesn't know who he is -- his mantra repeats his identity over and over, so it's literally the last thing he is clinging too; and I disagree that Taln's madness is any more similar to Jezrien's -- his lack of coherence is more likely self-inflicted, as we only ever saw him drunk in present times). Your theory supposes that Taln can be healed by a spren bond, which would "tie his Spiritual Identity to his physical self more strongly". I don't actually disagree that this could happen, but given that we know Nale did not regain his sanity after bonding a spren, I think it's very important to ask whether Nale and Taln are both damaged in the same way. Simply brushing aside the superficial differences isn't convincing. There is actually some evidence to support the idea that Taln and Nale, and the other Heralds are all damaged in the same way, and examining this can lead us to some interesting conclusions: The Death Rattle from the WoK Epigraph for Chapter 54 clearly links Taln to the madness of the other 9 Heralds: "The burdens of nine become mine. Why must I carry the madness of them all? Oh, Almighty, release me." In the Prologue of WoK, Kalak is startled to discover that Jezrien is "broken too", and realises that they probably all are. This suggests that the initial "breaking" of the Heralds is shared by all of them, caused by several cycles of torture and desolations. The manifestation of each Herald's madness diverged after that point, with Taln subjected to 4500 more years of torture, while the other nine lived with the guilt of their betrayal and the lies they told to cover it up. We have other examples of Cognitive Shadows who have descended into madness over a similar time period: The Fused. They also show individuals at different stages of cognitive decline. Interestingly, their decline is marked by the loss of their individual identities, becoming distilled manifestations of the rage and vengeance, further and further dis-Connected from the person who originally gave those "ideals" context. The madness of the Heralds can be understood in a similar way to the Fused -- several cycles of desolations tore at their souls, loosing the connection with their Spiritual Identity. The strongest part of their Spiritual Identity, however, was their Ideals, and so these have remained the central pillars of their identity in the cognitive and physical realm, just like the hardest rock will remain standing after all the softer rock is eroded around it. This is why the nine Heralds who broke the Oathpact are all mad in ways that show an obsession with their ideals, divorced from the individual identity that gave them context, and tainted by the guilt of their betrayal. It also explains why the only vestige of Taln's mind is a mantra that repeats endlessly repeats his identity and mission. (An extra, possibly parallel point -- this process reminds me of the way Vessels slowly lose their original human identity, as the Intent of the shard seeps into them.) If this is true (and I'm not saying it is -- I just want to present it as a plausible counter possibility to your assertion that Taln and Nale are mad in fundamentally different ways), then it actually has one counter-intuitive consequence for your spren-bond theory -- namely that a spren bond will tie a Herald more closely to their philosophical IDEAL, not their individual Spiritual Identity. A spen-bond with a Herald will only exacerbate the obsessive madness that was already present. I am basing this conclusion on your own description of the effect of a nahel bond, where you said: You are right that the nahel bond makes the human (or Herald) more like a spren (and vice-versa) as their Spiritwebs interweave with each other. However, I'd argue that this doesn't bring the human closer their identity, as you state, but closer to the Ideal that the spren represents. In the example of Kaladin and Syl, Kaladin doesn't move closer to his own Spiritual Identity, he moves closer to the external Spiritual Ideal of Honor, as manifested by Honor spren like Syl. So when you say that: It is probably more accurate to say that the Ideals of the Stonewards are described as being just like the Ideals that Taln stood for, so Taln's Ideals are also just like theirs. And since spren are the manifestations of these Ideals, bonding one will only tie him more closely to those ideals, not to Taln's individual Spiritual Identity. Now having said all that, there is also some evidence that Taln's madness is actually a different case to Nale and Ash. When Dalinar summoned the perpendicularity, we saw Taln returned to lucidity, suggesting that closer connection with his Spiritual Identity in the Spiritual Realm can heal him. In contrast we didn't see any evidence that Ash or Nale were similarly healed. I am being cautious here, because we didn't see any evidence that they weren't healed either -- Nale was off screen, and while Ash was still clearly broken by guilt, we didn't see her feel any compulsion to deface any statues either. Overall, I tend to agree with @Brgst13 that it is most likely to be Dalinar who is able to re-bond Taln's Spiritual Identity to his cognitive and physical aspects. (Although I also have to correct one point by @Brgst13: Taln's lucidity did disappear when the perpendicularity closed. It is stated clearly, as Ash tries to get him out of the city (I don't have my book so can;t get the exact reference, but I've checked this before).

We do have precident for a Herald bonding a spren, in the form of Nale, so it's clearly possible. But his nahel bond doesn't seem to have helped with his sanity. I accept that Taln's madness, after 4500 years of torture, may be fundamentally different to the madness of the other Heralds, but since this is the only data point we have, it's worth examining.

Haha, I can't reply properly now because I have to go pick my son up from creche (I live in Paris). But this is an excellent point. The map makes it starkly clear that either: Moelach's can stretch himself over a vast distance Moelach has been moving around more than we thought The death rattles can occur without Moelach present New research project! - Put each death rattle on the map with its date and see what pattern emerges The google doc by @callumke at This link should help with the dates, from this thread: EDIT: Research Project complete So I went and added every date as accurately as I could for each Death Rattle, and sorted them from earliest to latest. I've added a column in my spreadsheet (re-uploaded below) for the date in the format YYYY.M.W.D. So for example, the first Death Rattle chronologically is the one mentioned is the notorious "Bastards, You've killed me" quote, recorded on 1171.3.7.3. I used the google doc mentioned above to help translate the dates, and to fill in the gaps I used the chronology put together by @Jofwu in this Google Doc from this thread: I've also added the locations where they took place: I've assumed all of the rattles collected by the Silent Gatherers happened in Kharbranth, even if they were secondhand sources. Cenn's Death Rattle occurred in Northern Alethkar, on a border skirmish in Amaram's army Gadol and Maps died on the Shattered Plains Valam died in Vedenar The results show very little geographic pattern to Moelach's location, effectively ruling out statement 2 above. The majority of the Death Rattles are recorded in Kharbranth between 1171.3.7.3 and 1173.9.5.2. Cenn's death, Gadol's death, and Maps death all occurred within this time, an all within one month of a rattle recorded in Khabranth. Gadol's death actually occurs just one day before a rattle recorded in Kharbranth. Valam's death is the final one recorded, in Vedenar, 12 Rosharan weeks (or 1.2 Rosharan months) after the final recorded rattle in Kharbranth, and 14 Rosharan weeks (1.4 Rosharan months) after Map's death on the shattered plains. Cenn's death is the most geographically distant rattle recorded, on 1172.9.9.1. The next recorded rattle is 7 Rosharan weeks later, in Kharbranth on 1172.10.6.1 So @hoiditthroughthegrapevine, unless statement number 1 above is correct, and Moelach is able to spread across a vast area of Roshar, this seems to support your theory that Moelach does not actually need to be present at the time of death for a vision to be seen and a rattle to be spoken. I must admit, I'm still a little uncertain as to how this may happen. Care to expand on your idea? Death Rattle Analysis V2.xlsx

That's a very cool idea. I wouldn't say it's crackpot either, though I'd say right now I'm more "I'd love to see Rock as a bondsmith" side rather than the "I'm convinced Rock will be a bondsmith". All of the points you raise are solid reasons why Rock is a good candidate to be a Bondsmith. Bit as there can only be three Bondsmiths, and as they each have to bond a specific God spren, we need more than just a list of attributes that might make them a good candidate. Can you find any clear instances where this might be foreshadowed? I'm assuming that you think he'll bond the Nightwatcher. There is some connection with Cultivation already, given the fact that her Perpendicularity is in the Horneater Peaks. After meeting the Nightwatcher face to face in OB, it would certainly need to be a brave individual with a strong character to even consider bonding her. Off the top of my head, I can't really think of anyone else who'd be more suited to that than Rock. I also like that being a Horneater, Rock represents a closer bond to the Singers, through their shared genetic heritage.

@hoiditthroughthegrapevine, I'm loving the fact that you have such a different ideas on the underlying mechanics of Death Rattles. It's making me realise how many blind assumptions I made, and forces me to question them. Let me try to respond to each point and see if we can take it further. Points the first: Inferences from the Diagram and the Shin man: Agreed - Death rattles are involuntary, and the speaker is somehow compelled to speak of what they see. The fact that it was a Shin man who refused to recite the vision is suggestive that the Shin have some ability to resist. Strength of will is a good assumption here, though I am not sure this is the whole story. We know frustratingly little of the Shin and their beliefs, but it is interesting to compare his response to the other, mostly Vorin speakers, who consider predicting the future to be evil, but who all spoke of what they saw. I think this shows that the Shin man had a better understanding of what he was seeing, implying that he had at least some prior knowledge, if not of Moelach directly, then at least of Fortune generally, and the realmatic possibility of seeing visions of the future. The scientist in me also cautions about selection bias here -- and there are three layers of selection bias at work here: We don't know how many people were received visions through Moelach, but who did not say anything -- perhaps the visions are far more widespread but only a small percentage of people say anything. This would make the Shin man's rattle less an indication of willpower, and more an indication of greater understanding. (I personally don't think it's likely that many -- or even any -- choose not to speak the visions, but just wanted to point out that we don't have enough evidence to discount the possibility.) We have only seen rattles that were spoken in front of the Silent Gatherers, or on screen in front of our main characters -- if the rattles are being used to influence the people who hear the rattles, then it may be that the emphasis on different messages, themes and tones changes depending on the audience (Personally again, I don't think this is likely as Moelach is described as one of the more Instinctive, rather than sentient Unmade, and any corruption of the visions probably comes from a very simple and generalised playbook programmed into him by Odium); On the meta-level, Brandon has only shown us a small selection of all the rattles witnessed by the Silent Gatherers -- presumably he has given us a representative sample, and his choice to include the Shin man's rattle is deliberately meant to clue us in to something special about the Shin. (This is clearly the most important level of selection bias, because we actually know that Brandon inserts everything in the books for a purpose, and, contrary to basic statistics, outliers like the Shin man are generally meaningful.) Agreed: The visions need a power source, and my theory here is that "the spark of death" refers to some part of the Physical aspect of a person being turned into investiture at the point of death. Brandon has been pretty clear that he follows the rules of thermodynamics, just with spiritual investiture thrown into the equation. So matter, energy and investiture can all be transformed into one another, and back again. We may need to ask Brandon directly for confirmation of this, but my guess is that the "spark of death" is a transformation of latent energy in the body into investiture as the soul "breaks apart from the body". This has some deeper connotations of its own. Is this transfer of energy to investiture simply a lost byproduct of the transition, like the excess body heat of a living person? Or is it a necessary quanta of investiture, essential for the process of stabilising the soul after death, and allowing it to either move into the beyond, or hang around as a Cognitive Shadow? And if the latter, does Moelach's touch effectively destroy (or consume?) the soul of the person? Points the Second: Inferences from Maps death Disagree: Maps died in Chapter 57 of WoK and I don't remember any evidence of Moelach in Jah Keved until Valam's death rattle to Tarvangian in Interlude 14 in WoR. It is earlier in that same interlude that Taravagian and Adrotagia first discuss the movement of Moelach away from Alethkar: Unless I missed something about Moelach being in Jah Keved earlier, then I don't agree that there is any evidence that the rattles can occur without Moelach being directly present. Points the Third: Speculations on the mechanism Disagree for now, but still open to being convinced, because I like your theories, but I haven't seen enough evidence yet that Moelach is doing anything more than using people as a power source and speaker for his own visions. I actually really like your theory about Moelach harvesting visions for Odium -- this would be a super smart idea for Odium, given that we know even gods see the future imperfectly. And I love your speculation that Fortune is tied to Connection, and operates along an individual's Spiritweb. It's another great question to pose Brandon, to try to tease out whether one's Spiritweb limits and/or directs the visions that one can access. But, absent WoB, let me have a stab at trying to reconcile all this. This mirrors the discussion over Renarin, and whether his access to Fortune, which is drawn from Odium and channeled through Sja-anat and Glys, is still limited by what Odium can see, or whether Renarin can see visions beyond Odium's perception. The fact that Renarin could not see the possibility that Jasnah would spare his life suggests to me that the version of the future shown in his vision was not dictated by his individual Spiritweb. If that had been the case, surely his visions would have accounted for the strength of familial love in his own cousin? In Renarin's case, I think we can see that Fortune flows down hill, from gods, to spren, to mortals. And when I say Fortune I don't simply mean the ability to see visions, but the range of possible futures the visions can show too. BUT, that's not to say that Renarin's Spiritweb has nothing to do with the visions -- after all, all the visions he sees are based on events that have some direct connection to him in the future. He's not seeing visions of things yet to happen on the other side of Roshar, or on other planets in the Cosmere. He's seeing events in his own near future, and in the near future of those he is closely connected to. So how can I tie this up? Let me think of an analogy. I'm going to use the stained glass nature of Renarin's visions for some inspiration here. Fortune is like a light that can be used to see into the future. Gods with access to Fortune are like naked light bulbs, with different coloured glass. The light they shine on the future spreads in every direction, but is coloured by their own natures, allowing them to see a lot of things, but also creating blind spots in parts of the spectrum that their light doesn't interact with. Gods can give access to their Fortune-light to lower beings, like spren and mortals, allowing them to see visions of the future themselves. However what these beings see is limited in two ways: By the colour of the Fortune-light that the god provides, with all the blind spots that brings; and The shape of their spirit web, which acts like a lampshade over the "light-bulb", allowing light to escape only through holes in the shade. The shape and the size of the holes are dictated by the Spiritweb of the individual, and so the visions they see will be connected to them, and those the have strong Connection to. I don't mean that to be a literal interpretation of how Fortune works. When Renarin's vision is described as being "A thousand panes of stained glass sprout[ing] from the walls, combining and melting together, creating a panorama", they are also described as being "full of color" (WoR, chapter 117, pg 1121, US Hardcover edition). So clearly he doesn't just see the visions in one colour. My point is that the potential outcomes he is shown are metaphorically coloured by the source of his Fortune, while his Spiritweb directs which events this lights shines on. So, pulling this back to the Death Rattles, when Moelach touches a soul about to die a few things happen: The "spark of death" provides the power to turn on the light (the light being Odium's Fortune); Moelach acts like a torch, shining this light on the dying soul; The soul's Spiritweb acts like a hole in a lampshade, letting the light shine through onto future events that they have some Connection to (in the case of the dying person, it obviously isn't a direct personal future, so it must be Connection through location, family, friends, beliefs, etc.); The last physical act of the soul is to speak of what they see, often in words and linguistic structures that come from beyond their own vocabulary and literacy level. Weaknesses of the Spiritweb theory: Point 4 in the list above still troubles me, with regard to this Spiritweb theory of visions. So many of the visions seem to be told from the point of view of some future third person, and the speaker often clearly uses words and language that is not their own. Are these future people always necessarily Connected to the speaker? How much Connection is required? Or does the soul's Spiritweb simply give a frame around the event, and then it's Moelach who selects the exact vision, the perspective it is shown from, and even the words used to describe it? Note also, that if this Light-bull/Lampshade theory of Fortune is true, then the idea of Moelach harvesting visions for Odium would be unworkable. Points the Fourth: The Silent Gatherer Notes Agreed, naturally Points the Fifth: Moelach as a spider YES! I saw him as a spider too! Obviously I have a different vision of how the visions come about, as I've discussed above, but the spider imagery was there for me too. Jezrien describes him like this though: I'm not sure what to make of this. The rat part is clearly a simile, but what of the wheezing, scratching and scraping? And as an aside, do they even have rats on Roshar?

You're right. Definitely WoR. My mistake. Disagree completely about it being Kaladin and Syl though. For a few reasons: Night is a very common metaphor attached to Odium and throughout the quotes, and the word "reign" or "rule" is used in multiple rattles, always seeming to refer to Odium's final victory. "So the night will reign", suggests a much larger victory for Odium than the death of one Honor Spren. There are rattles predicting Kaladin's continued rise as a Knights Radiant after Syl's "death" -- specifically the "All is withdrawn" quote -- which directly contradict the assertion that "night will reign" as a consequence of Syl's death. Honor isn't capitalised, so the reference here isn't to the god, or to Syl, one of his spren, or even to Kaladin, one of his "sons". It is a reference to the everyday meaning of the word honor - an honorable choice. Kaladin's desperate attempt to draw in stormlight as he fell wasn't an honorable choice. But if this is linked to the "Suckling child" and "A man stood watching" rattles, then it's easy to see that the honorable choice would be to spare the baby's life. The use of the word "choice" links it strongly with the "Suckling child" and "A man stood watching" quotes, which both heavily imply a difficult moral choice will have to be made.

This is a really interesting idea. I had not given any consideration at all to the mechanism by which Moelach caused the visions, but it makes a lot of sense that the subjects Spirit Web might be important. We know from the Diagram that Moelach "touches" the soul of people as they are dying, and uses the "spark of death" to power the visions. I had previously taken that to mean that the vision was generated by Moelach, and the souls he touched were only needed as a sort of spiritual battery, but it's possible that there's more to it. Here's the quote form the Diagram: I actually did include in the spreadsheet the notes from the Silent Gatherers, including the subject, their brief history and the date of death. It's in the Origin tab, but it was easily missed because I shrunk it to see the more of the other columns. And I did also refer to these notes a couple of times, where I thought it was relevant. I just thought they were relevant for less realmatic reasons. Here are the examples I took note of when doing my analysis: WoK Prologue "You've killed me. Bastards, you've killed me! While the sun is still hot, I die!" — Collected on Chachabah 1171, 10 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a darkeyed soldier thirty-one years of age. Sample is considered questionable. Why Relevant: The notes consider this rattle suspect, but I disagree. I believe they thought it was suspect because the language, and the word "bastards" in particular, was out of character with the other rattles, and also because it is possible he's just talking about his own death (see below). But I believe the reference to the sun (Day/Night theme) shows it's legit. I figure "Bastards" is an expression borrowed directly from Jezrien. Getting meta, the fact that this quote was placed prominently atop the Prologue of WoK, right after we've seen Jezrien abandon the Oathpact in the Prelude, and before we catch a glimpse of him drunk in treaty party, lends weight to it being a legit rattle, with some connection to Jezrien. WoK Chapter 4 "I'm dying, aren't I? Healer, why do you take my blood? Who is that beside you, with his head of lines? I can see a distant sun, dark and cold, shining in a black sky." — Collected on Jesanach 1172, 11 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a Reshi chull trainer. Sample is of particular note. Why Relevant: Obviously this is of "particular note" because it is not a rattle at all, but a glimpse of something else. I didn't delve into the cryptic he sees, or the fact that he is obviously seeing into the CR, but my feeling is that he was a proto-radiant. I know others have different theories on this. What I will point out about this non-rattle is that the speaker clearly references the real world multiple times, proof he's not having a vision. This is important because it gives us (and the Silent Gatherers) clues about what is a true rattle and what is not. As I stated above, I think this may have contributed to their suspicion on the "You've killed me" quote. WoK Chapter 6 "I'm cold. Mother, I'm cold. Mother? Why can I still hear the rain? Will it stop?" — Collected on Vevishes 1172, 32 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a lighteyed female child, approximately six years old. Why Relevent: This is an interesting one because the girl clearly references real world things (She is cold, and wants her mother), but she also hears a storm that isn't there. The age of the girl is what is relevant here. She is too young to understand the vision or describe it properly. It's true that there's a younger girl later who speaks a much more complicated rattle though, so perhaps I'm wrong here. WoK Chapter 57 "I hold the suckling child in my hands, a knife at his throat, and know that all who live wish me to let the blade slip. Spill its blood upon the ground, over my hands, and with it gain us further breath to draw." — Collected on Shashanan 1173, 23 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a darkeyed youth of sixteen years. Sample is of particular note.[24] Why Relevant: I believe the sample is of note because they Diagramists noted the similarities to the older rattle, which referenced an infant child, a man crying, and the destruction of Khabranth. They would have been on the look out for any other rattles that may have given more context as that first prediction probably to Taravangian (who lets be honest, does cry a lot). WoK Chapter 60 "The death is my life, the strength becomes my weakness, the journey has ended." — Observed on Betabanes, 1173, 95 seconds pre-death, collected secondhand and later reported to the the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a scholar of some minor renown. Sample considered questionable. Why Relevant: I explained my theory on this in my previous post. Basically I think it's just a scholar's pre-prepared final words, and I agree with the Silent Gatherers that it is questionable, especially since it was reported secondhand. WoK Chapter 63 "I wish to sleep. I know now why you do what you do, and I hate you for it. I will not speak of the truths I see." — Collected on Kakashah 1173, 142 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was a Shin sailor, left behind by his crew, reportedly for bringing them ill luck. Sample largely useless. Why Relevant: A suppressed rattle that may be useless to the Silent Gatherers, but which gives us a little insight into the the whole process, and also sparks some questions about why a Shin man was able to recognise what was going on when no one else could. WoK Chapter 68 "They named it the Final Desolation, but they lied. Our gods lied. Oh, how they lied. The Everstorm comes. I hear its whispers, see its stormwall, know its heart." — Collected on Tanatanes 1173, 8 seconds pre-death, by the Silent Gatherers. Subject was an Azish itinerant worker. Sample of particular note. Why Relevant: This is an Azish man, and therefore not an adherent of Vorinism. Yet he refers to the Heralds as "our gods". I suspect this was of particular note because it demonstrates that the words spoken in the visions don't actually align with the beliefs of the speakers. This may also be true for the "Three of Sixteen ruled, but the Broken One reigns" rattle, which was spoken by a man of "partial Iriali descent". OB - In one of the Taravangian chapters! "So the night will reign, for the choice of honor is life..." — Observed circa Ishi 1173 by Taravangian. Subject was King Valam of Jah Keved. Why Relevant: Because it was spoken to Taravangian, and speaks of a choice, a major them of the other two Taravnagian quotes Having gone through these again quickly, I don't see too much evidence that the speakers are important beyond what I have noted above. I certainly don't see any strong patterns linking profession, ethnicity, age, or personal history to the subject of the rattle. But it's worth a deeper look.

I can understand the idea of breaking the immersion, or taking you out of the book, as @Rainier said earlier. And it's a valid point, too. Authors work so hard to build an immersive world, it's a shame if something like this pulls you out of it, even if it is only momentarily. I can't say it bothered me, but I've been working in the publishing industry for more than a decade, so I'm very familiar with the sausage factory of book creation and marketing. To me, it's not so important how the author finds inspiration for their characters or plots, it's how they take that inspiration and weave it into their story that matters. One of the things I love about Brandon is that he is so open with his entire process, and this has always been received positively by his fans. I actually use Brandon as an example to many authors I work with, both to get first-hand writing advice, and on how to build a thriving community with their readers. I've always seen the whole fan-placement issue from the point of view of an author or publisher building an audience, so it's very interesting to hear whether making one fan's dream come true comes at a cost of diminishing the experience for many other fans, even if only very slightly.

I'm curious. Why does this affect you so much? At most, all that he took was the name and perhaps some physical characteristics. The rest of the character is entirely fictional and part of the world. Writers use real life people as building blocks for their characters all the time, often quite openly. Brandon has a cast of thousands in his books, so what harm him giving some of his biggest fans and supporters something special? I believe Brandon has said that Lyn's character has grown from what he originally intended, which shows that adding her actually expanded the book in some small way that may not habe happened otherwise. If that way was to give voice to a female character who wants to challenge traditional gender types, then that's even better. If these characters were written poorly, or stood out like bad product placement im a TV show, then I'd agree with you. But if you didn't know beforehand about Lyn's origin, I highly doubt you'd have noticed. I certainly didn't.

Yes, and ...? The question is still valid. Lyn the character may have originated this way, but now she's in there, her personality, motivations and story arc have to be fleshed out and developed like any other. She wasn't just dropped into the story a fully formed 21st century Earth woman and left to her own devices. My reading of this scene was that Lyn finds the gender roles and narrow definitions of femininity in Vorin society highly restrictive. She saw in Shallan a potential role model, proof that women could break out of the traditional structures and succeed in masculine fields. Shallan's response demoralises Lyn, because even though Shallan has proved that women can be Radiants, she reinforces the importance of maintaining her traditional sense of femininity. Shallan's mood certainly played into the exchange, but the broader societal taboos on acting other, or even talking about acting other should also be acknowledged. EDIT: From @Belcyrlis This too. Good point.

EDIT: This post is now complete! I was motivated by this WoB to do some deeper analysis of the Death Rattles: Specifically, I wanted to try to analyse the Death Rattles in a similar way to the Diagramitists, to see what patterns I could find from in the Rattles that we have decoded, and then see if that helps us make some intelligent guesses about the Rattles that we haven't yet figured out. Along the way, I hoped to be able to gain some deeper insights into the motivations of Odium, and perhaps any takeaways that Taravangian might have gained. My Method: If you want a detailed explanation of my methods, open the spoiler window here: The Data: I have attached the Excel Spreadsheet that I created, in case you want to see my raw data and play around with the pivot tables. I has originally planned to do this in SPSS, to do some more rigorous statistical analysis, but apparently my student license has expired :-( My Results: To be honest, the most valuable part of this exercise was the initial work of identifying the main themes, emotions and keywords within the Death Rattles. This surfaced a few clear patterns that made fairly obvious sense when compared side-by-side with other similar rattles. The deeper analysis using pivot tables didn't do much more than confirm some of these patterns. The sample size is just too small, especially since some of the rattles seem to be isolated events anyway. Here are some of the main things I found. Major Themes: There was a long list of themes I found in the rattles, all of which you can see in the spreadsheet. Here are my thoughts on the themes that recurred most often: Breaking Down the Categories: This is the guts of my analysis, going through each category and discussing the interesting points. I won't cover every rattle, as many of them are already well understood, but I'll go into detail where I think I can add something to the discussion. Everstorm/Desolation: This was the biggest category, containing 12 of the 35 quotes. In some ways it's least interesting to us now though, because we have read past these events and solved most of the rattles (with one exception). The most striking feature of this group was the sustained intensity of the emotional responses that it evoked, focusing on Fear, Fatalism, Despair and Horror. Clearly these rattles were a form of pre-war posturing, intended to frighten the wits out of whoever heard them, and convince them to give up before the fight ever starts. Half of the rattles clearly refer to the Everstorm and the Desolation directly. Four shine a horrible dark light on the Voidbringers, with the rasping singing of Storm Form, and the burning rage and vengeful spite of the Fused and the Thunderclasts. Two rattles refer more generally to Odium's final victory in inevitable terms. The Contested rattle (Number 9: "Victory! We stand atop the mount! ...") has features of all three secondary categories: it seems to be from the perspective of the Fused, with their characteristic rage and vengefulness; it seems to tell the story of Odium's victory; but it may also refer to the a general victory early in the Desolation. Even if I can't pinpoint the "victory on the mount" event, one thing I am sure of is that it fits thematically and emotionally with the other rattles in the Everstorm/Desolation category, and is therefore almost certainly a prediction of a victory for Odium, rather than a flashback to a previous desolation as has been suggested. Knights Radiant: This category currently contains 5 rattles, 4 of which have generally agreed explanations. These 4 I have labelled "Rise of the Radiants", although I could easily have flagged them as Kaladin's Journey, as they focus on him almost exclusively (Shallan gets a brief mention as one of two 'dead men' coming from the pit). As I alluded to above in my discussion of the Rebirth theme, the common emotion in this group of rattles is Hope, accompanied by Defiance, Determination and Awe. The negative emotions associated with Odium (fear, horror, despair, confusion) are evoked here only as representations of challenges to be overcome. It is also worth noting the verb chooses in these rattles. Kaladin is always described acting positively; he "stands", "speaks", "drinks", "saves", "protects", "raises" and "picks up". They are decisive, progressive actions that are in stark contract to the passive actions of humans and Heralds in other rattles, who "sit", "weep", "grieve", "fall" and "die", "die", "die". Three of the rattles are, I believe specifically about Kaladin, and his progression through the oaths. This is one example where a side-by-side comparison of the themes and emotional tone has helped a lot. I have presumptuously marked all these three as Solved, even though there is some debate still about two of them. They are: Rattle 15: He must pick it up, the fallen title! The tower, the crown, and the spear! Rattle 22: Above the final void I hang, friends behind, friends before. The feast I must drink clings to their faces, and the words I must speak spark in my mind. The old oaths will be spoken anew Rattle 32: All is withdrawn for me. I stand against the one who saved my life. I protect the one who killed my promises. I raise my hand. The storm responds. Rattle 15 metaphorically identifies the three pivotal moments in Kaladin's path to become a Knight Radiant: The first is speaking the 2nd Ideal at the Battle of the Tower in WoK; The second speaking the third Ideal and saving Elhokar (the Crown) in WoR; and the third is forming his Shardspear and battling Szeth in the storm. Rattle 22 is uncontested, and clearly refers to Kaladin speaking his second Ideal in the Battle of the Tower, as explained in the Coppermind notes. For Rattle 32, I agree with the summary provided by @Fulminato in this post, which shows that Moash is the one who saved his life, Elhokar is the one who broke his promises, and therefore the rattle refers to the moment Kaladin speaks the Third Ideal in WoR. The fourth rattle is different (No. 27: "They come from the pit ...", in that it references Kaladin and Shallan coming out of the chasms from the point of view of a third person. It therefore illustrates the awe and hope that the rise of the KR can inspire in others. The fifth, contested rattle (number 9: "Ten people, with Shardblades alight, standing ...") projects hope too, although the odds seem less in the KR's favour. It is probable that this scene refers to the Battle of the Fields at the end of OB, but I've left it contested while we work out the details of who the ten actually are. I'm afraid that I don't have anything to add to that discussion, other than I believe it fits thematically and emotionally with this group of rattles, especially with the references to "light" and "standing". There are two Uncertain rattles that seem to refer to the KR as well, but neither contain the hopeful, rising tone of the other five. The first, (rattle no. 3: "Ten orders. We were loved, once ...") is much more ambiguous, with an appeal to the Almighty ("Where have you gone?") and the curious phrase "Shard of my soul" which might equally refer to a Nahel spren, or the death of Jezrien. Thematically and emotionally, this rattle is more consistent with the Herald rattles, with expressions of loss, regret, grief, and fallen glory. I therefore believe this cold be a pair with rattle no 16 ("The burdens of nine become mine ...") which references Taln at his breaking point. Taln appeals to the Almighty in both quotes, as he was in Braize when Honor was splintered and may not consciously be aware that he is gone. "Shard of my soul, where have you gone?" would therefore refer to his moment of realisation that Honor is dead. The other uncertain rattle (number 23, "The death is my life ...") is a simple re-working of the first Ideal, turning it inside out to suggest failure. The sample is considered suspect by the Silent Gatherers, and given it's origin, from a "scholar of some minor renown", I tend to take this suspicion at face value and agree that these may actually be the pre-prepared, and presumably poignant last words of an in-world Knights Radiant history geek. They do not match thematically or emotionally with the other rattles about the KR, so seem counter to the motivation theory of the Death Rattles. For context, Brandon included this quote in the Chapter 60 Epigraph, directly after Kaladin and Teft discuss the first Ideal in detail, and right before Dalinar has a vision with a downcast Nohadon, in the wake of a terrible Desolation. Given that it seems designed more as a thematic and emotional bridge between these two chapters, and that it is extremely abstract, with no recognisable references to either a possible event or a character (which all the legit rattles have), I conclude it's a red herring. Heralds: The two solved rattles in this group obviously focus on Taln and Ash, with clear references to madness. Ash's madness manifests as she "sits and scratches out her own eyes" -- a form of self-harm -- and is illustrative of her fall from glory and the overwhelming regret, grief and self-loathing that she feels. In Taln's case, the burden of taking on the tortured madness of all of the Heralds for 4500 years finally gets to him and he appeals to the Almighty for release. As I mentioned above, I believe this pairs with Rattle no. 3, to give us a picture of Taln's breaking and subsequent discovery of Honor's death. There's something else very interesting about these three rattles though, centred on the phrase "Why must I carry the madness of them all?" In the WoR Prologue, Jasnah overhears Nale and Kelek(?) openly discussing the fact that Ash, Jezrien and they themselves were "getting worse". This seems to signal some connection between the mental states of the nine Heralds on Roshar and Taln on Braize. I'm not the best person to speculate on the Realmatic mechanics of Connection between highly invested Cognitive Shadows like the Heralds, but it seems clear that after 4500 years of torture, Taln's deteriorating resolve correlated with a sharp decline in the mental stability of his companions. The other Uncertain rattle that has been suggested might relate to the Heralds is the very first quote, from the prologue of WoK. The sample is described as questionable by the Silent Gatherers, and it is true that it most closely resembles the other non-rattles in form and content. Most notably, it begins with the speaker announcing their own death, as do the other two. However, unlike the other two, it doesn't provide any clear evidence that the words spoken are not those intended by Moelach. In contrast, the phrase "while the sun is still hot" seems like a reference to the Night/Day theme, which is very common in the other rattles. Additionally, the formulation of the final words "I die" fits in with the first person, present tense structure of the true rattles. So could this be Jezrien? Sure! The surprise at being "while the Sun is still hot" certainly fits. If we consider night to be a metaphor for the final victory of Odium, then Jezrien's death before the sun has set on Roshar would be a surprise to him. The use of the word "bastards" might also fit with his current drunken state. So it could fit. But it's not entirely convincing, and I'm going to leave it up to debate. The Unmade: There are three clear rattles referencing the Unmade, and one Uncertain rattle that appears likely. Re-Shephir, Dai-Gonarthis and the Black Piper are each named and revealed clearly, although there is still speculation about the true natures of Dai-Gonarthis and the Black Piper, neither of whom we've seen on screen yet (at least not obviously). A few themes and emotions are noteworthy across the three rattles. The Unmade are all associated with night and or darkness. They all either "watch", "consume", or "hold" humans in some way. The tell-tale emotion is horror, alongside fear, paranoia and despair. Much like the rattles about the Voidbringers, the motive of these quotes seems to be less about warning, and more about intimidating. The Uncertain rattle (No. 25: "The darkness becomes a palace. Let it rule! Let it rule!") has been linked by some (including me) to the Palace in Kholinar, and the Unmade who captured it. Yelig-nar, Ashertmarn and Sja-anat could all be said to have come to the palace, and the "Let it rule" cry sounds similar to the cult of spren that sprung up in the city. The rattle doesn't fit the pattern of the other Unmade quotes though, and it is aligned much more closely with the triumphal tone of the rattles predicting Odium's final victory. This isn't necessarily to say that the Kholinar explanation is wrong, but I think it more likely that the darkness is a more general reference to Odium, the palace a modern incarnation of the fortress we've seen in Dalinar's visions, and the "rule", that of Odium himself. Szeth: This isolated rattle seems straightforward in its reference to Szeth's defeat in the storm against Kaladin. I don't think it necessarily references his resurrection though, as some have argued for or against, but see "awaken" as a reference to his acceptance that the Radiants have returned, and that he was not truthless. The Uncertain Rattles: This is where it gets interesting. I have already discussed 4 of the 9 Uncertain rattles above. I allocated one to the Odium's Final Victory category, one to the Heralds category, one to the Not a Rattle category, and one I've still left Uncertain. I have divided the remaining 5 into two main groups: Taravangian's Choice: Three rattles that detail a future choice T will make, as I discussed above in the Moral Confusion theme; Isolated Events: Two rattles that refer to pivotal characters and events, but which don't fit directly with another category. The Szeth rattle would fit into this group too. I don't want to delve too much into the Taravangian quotes again, as I feel I've already pushed my theories on that enough. I did find, however, that the themes, emotional responses, and keywords supported the linking of these three rattles. It also has to be noted that rattle 35 ("So the night will reign, for the choice of honor is life...") was spoken on screen directly to Taravangian. I wasn't able to find anything that helped determine who the Child might be, although the detailed nature of the rattles suggests they are literal, not metaphorical, descriptions of future events. Turning to the two remaining Isolated Events, I was interested to know whether I could find any links between them, or the other categories, but I couldn't discern anything definitive. Rattle 14: "I'm standing over the body of a brother. I'm weeping. Is that his blood or mine? What have we done?" As I mentioned in the Moral Confusion theme above, this is thematically similar to the Taravangian quotes. It also shares references to weeping, blood on hands, and regret for our choices. Beyond that, the events described seem entirely unconnected. I also suggested above that this rattle could refer to Kaladin's moment of freezing in Kholinor as he watches friends (brothers?) on all sides kill each other. It is thematically and emotionally different to Kaladin's hope-inspiring Knights Radiant rattles though, which suggests that the motivation behind this vision is different too. Rattle 34: "Above silence, the illuminating storms—dying storms—illuminate the silence above." This is the only rattle in ketek form, and is a frustratingly abstract as all the ketek poems I've seen. The themes, emotions and keywords don't match it up strongly to any of the other rattles either. The main clue here is actually the phrase "the silence above", which is also the title of Part Five of the WoK. In this section of WoK Dalinar sees the final vision and learns that Honor is dead. The silence above therefore refers to Honor's death. The illuminating storms refer to highstorms in two senses: the source of stormlight; and the source of the visions, which illuminate the truth for Dalinar. Therefore I see this rattle as predicting Dalinar's visions and learning of Honor's death. Conclusions I think I've justified that most of the rattles fall into a few discreet categories (with a few outliers), based on the events that they predict, and that these groups of rattles share common themes, emotional tones and keywords. Given this fact, it's safe to assume that their are deliberate motives behind the rattles. I believe all of the rattles are forward looking, although a few, notably the Heralds and Unmade rattles, are primarily revelatory in nature, describing the characters and foreshadowing their re-emergence into the world. Open questions: Why are the KR rattles, and specifically the Kaladin ones, so hopeful and inspiring? What motivation could Odium have for framing the Knights Radiant in such a positive light, when the Heralds and other humans are all made to seem weak, mad, and unreliable. It appears that Odium is manoeuvring T towards the KR, perhaps in the belief that they are a weak spot that can be exploited. Or is Kaladin in line to become the next champion? (I don't think so, but it's a theory that's out there!) Who are the Ten people holding shards alight? Is that Jezrien calling his killers bastards? Who is the Black Piper and what tune is he playing? Who is the suckling child, and is it Taravangian with a blade to his throat? (And why?) Where is will/did the victory on the mount happen? Which palace does the darkness become? Who are the fighting brothers? Death Rattle Analysis.xlsx

Sigh. What a wonderful world it was when scientists were respected and encouraged to discuss their findings in the full context of their uncertainty, without it being turned against them. (Or did that never really exist?) I completely agree with this too. Though the tone from Brandon wasn't encouraging.

Haha! That is an awesome factoid. I never knew that. It's a pretty good lesson in checking your facts before advising the President. Glad Eisenhower didn't make a pre-emptive strike on Mars because it ... I'm not sure I have much solid evidence for the theory, but I found a couple of other interesting tidbits. First, the Shin call the moons The Sisters, based on the order they appear in the sky: First Sister, Second Sister and Third Sister. That doesn't really help us one way or the other, but I thought it was interesting that the people who probably have the most direct connection with the original refugees label them all female, in contrast to Vorin tradition. Of course, there could be a completely different reason for that. At the very least, it shows that there are inconsistencies between the origin stories and the moons. And we know there's something artificial about them, so where are the truths in these myths? Second was this WoB, which addressed the theory that Urithiru was a spaceship: Brandon's response isn't exactly encouraging here. He sounds genuinely surprised and didn't RAFO it at all. So unless he's being a good actor and just deflecting, then I think this pours a little cold water on the moons being spaceships theory. I'm not giving up on it, but I think it's less likely. It begs the question though, how did the refugees get to Roshar? I still think it's an awfully big human migration across Shadesmar.

I think it's pretty clear that Odium has been manipulating events on Roshar for a long time to ensure all the pieces were in the right place for the new desolation. Consider this rough timeline: Odium had been grooming Dalinar with the Thrill for decades to be his champion; Cultivation recognised that Dalinar was being primed to be a tool of Odium when he visited the Nightwatcher, soon after Gavilar's death, and began actively preparing counter measures (Dalinar, Taravangian & Lift); The Sons of Honor, including Gavilar, Amaram and Restares, having been led to believe that returning the Listener gods and causing the Desolation was necessary, have been working towards this goal for at least a few years before Gavilar was killed, so probably a decade or more; Gavilar just happened to discover the Listeners on an expedition south of the Shattered Plains, after they had been hidden for thousands of years, since the Recreance. Many spren had recognised something was happening and started to bond with humans even before Gavilar's death (Jasnah for example); Gavilar reveals the sphere to Eshonai, triggering his Assasination and the War of Reckoning; Ulim has been on Roshar, 'guiding' Venli, for at least a few years, and certainly before Taln turned up in Kholinar -- Note that Ulim tells Venli that she was "then one that escaped", suggesting that she managed to somehow get out before the Oathpact was broken; Taln turns up in Kholinar, signalling that the Oathpact is broken and releasing the voidspren and Fused from Braize; Venli convinces Eshonai to adopt Storm form and the Everstorm is conjured soon after, possibly allowing the Fused to make the jump from the CR to the PR? Too many of these things seem to point toward a coordinated plan by Odium, focused on preparing the Listeners to be receptive for the Fused in time for the Desolation. The timing of all this action doesn't seem random, because it's quite possible that he could have attempted any of these things with any of the generations between the Recreance and the present generation*. The only factor completely out of his control was when Taln broke. But the fact that Odium's preparations began at least two decades in advance of Taln's appearance on Roshar, he must have had some prior knowledge that the Oathpact would break when it did. The most obvious answer to me is that he was able to predict the approximate time of Taln's breaking through Fortune. *side thought: Did he perhaps try something similar in the past with the Sunmaker?

My personal theory is that Renarin is a black spot because he was supposed to die, but is still alive and kicking. Since his probability line was supposed to end, any actions he takes from that point on are completely unanticipated. What does it mean that he was "supposed to die" though. Was he supposed to die in all potential futures? Or just the futures that Odium could see? I feel it's relevant that Renarin's access to Fortune comes from Odium, and therefore, so did his vision of dying at the hands of Jasnah. Renarin's takeaway from Jasnah's decision not to kill him is that the visions do not have to come true -- that it's possible to change them. I suspect this is because there are infinite possible futures, but Fortune only gives limited access to all those possible futures, or more likely, individuals, even Shards, only have a limited capacity to observe all those possible futures. And what does he fact that the words behind Renarin had been blacked out, but were still present for Taravangian to see, in the Diagram in the scene with T and Odium? Did Odium originally have access to this future, but has discounted it because he thinks Renarin died? Or did he only ever see futures where Renarin died, and therefore never knew about this possibility? And if that's the case, is this evidence that the Diagram was written with access to Fortune granted by Cultivation? This would imply that the Shards all have slightly different pictures of the future.

@hoiditthroughthegrapevine, yes, it's the moons I was referring to. And they are exactly the WoB's that have been kicking around in my mind for a while regarding the moons. It was the prompt about possible technology on Ashyn that sparked the leap. Well, this idea came in a theoretical discussion that assumed Ashyn was technologically and/or realmatically advanced enough to destroy their own planet through environmental collapse. Following that assumption, it's not a stretch that they would have the motivation and ability to start a space project. If we are talking magically enhanced space travel, then the size of ship shouldn't be a big issue, especially an Ark ship. They'd have to be advanced enough to build it in space, but our own history shows that huge technological progress an be made in a short time with a dedicated effort. I wonder if Moore's Law holds in the Cosmere? EDIT: It actually looks like there a fair amount of evidence of technological innovation on Ashyn. I forgot that the forthcoming book, Silence Divine was going to be based on Ashyn, with a magic system based on diseases, and floating cities in the sky. Obviously, we don't exactly when in the timeline SD will be set, but it's not unreasonable to assume that the exodus and the origin floating cities were in the same general era. Here's the entry on Coppermind: I think maybe I should take my UFO conspiracy theories over into it's own thread, because they are off point in this one. But there are a couple of relevant the topic of this thread, namely, how surges destroy planets: After the cataclysm, "Ashyn is mostly barren, with a few fertile patches" which suggests that the planet is more or less physically intact, and that the cataclysm predominantly affected the biosphere; The fact that SD will feature a disease-based magic, not surgebinding, implying that surges are no-longer used on the planet, most likely because Odium and his spren are no longer present.

Ok, following this train of thought that the nahel bonds, and the orders of the KR were designed, at least in part, to limit the side effects of surge use, would the increasing use of fabrials consitute an environmental threat to Roshar? Oh crap! I just thought of something. I've assumed that the human refugees arrived on Roshar through the CR. But what if they were technologically and Realmatically advance enough to build spaceships? Three of them specifically. And what if those ships were still in orbit around Roshar? Or has this already been suggested and debunked like a thousand times? (Brandon does love the Chronicles of Pern.)

This is an angle I hadn't considered before -- an accumulated unbalancing of natural forces that presumably build towards a tipping point and catastrophic system collapse -- akin to a runaway greenhouse effect on Earth. I'd been assuming something more immediate and dramatic, analogous to a nuclear apocalypse, but a slower environmental collapse makes a lot of sense too. One question though. Are you assuming that the surges humans had access to on Ashyn with Odium were similar to to the current surgebinding the KR use? Wouldn't it be more likely that they would be using Voidbinding surges, which come from Odium? Or perhaps something else entirely that we haven"t seen yet?