Long Game 3: Blackwater Village

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Joe sat on a Pile of Scrap metal, Staring at the Body of Dyrii. Hard as I try, I can't Think of a Bright Side to this. If the Seeker is Dead, on the First Night. Then there most be astronomical Odds against us, or They Have Uber-Tin somehow.  Oh, The Bright side is that Raubber is finally making Money. Now where had that Tinker Gotten off to? He needed a Weapon. 

As Joe stood up to search for Lents, The Pile of Scrap metal he was on Shifted, Revealing Lent's Face. Luckily, Joe didn't see it as strode off.

 

EDIT: Ooh, Ninja'd by A Crazy Lead Misting.

Edited March 6, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Chid he/him]

Mistborn.  You can PM people.  There are two living tineyes.  

 

Chidden was overwhelmed.  Every time he looked at someone, he wondered if they were evil.  Who could he trust?  He wanted to do something useful, but he had no idea how.  

Being a hero is hard.

Edited March 6, 2014 by Chid

[Swimmingly he/him]

Our vanquished, valiant Lents was a vanilla villager vigilante.

[bartbug he/him]

Nothing that the tineyes or the mistborn say can be used. After all, any one of them could be Spiked.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

So, did anyone notice that the letters after the random periods in the last message spell out, "Smell the death" ?? That's pretty creepy. And why is the first one so big?

Maw was saddened at the loss of the roofer. He had never been good friends but the man was nice and quiet and never bothered anyone.

[Aspren]

Nothing that the tineyes or the mistborn say can be used. After all, any one of them could be Spiked.

 

I doubt that both Tineyes are spiked. Chances are that only one of them is. And if the Mistborn is spiked why did they also post a tineye message? Same applies for if all three of them are Spiked. Also, the Mistborn doesn't have the most powerful role in this game. they can only use each ability once (assuming this game doesn't go on for longer than 8 cycles). Effectively the most important roles right now are the Coinshot and the Seeker. And the chances are that there is a second seeker as well. 

 

Let's do some analysis here: In the first game there were four Spiked and 16 players in total. If the same applies to this game there could be anything from four to six Spiked players. Three of the Spiked in the previous game were mistings. So anything from three to five of the current spiked could be mistings. I think it's pretty safe to assume that there is at-least one Spiked Smoker, being that the role is more useful for the Spiked than it would be for us. So arranged according to likelihood of one of these roles being a spiked:

 

Spiked Regular 100%  -   Highly likely, I hope.

Spiked Tineye 75%  -   Highly likely, based on the fact that there are two Tineye messages in the write-up.

Spiked Mistborn 75%  -   Likelihood is also dependant on whether they have Smoker, Seeker and a Lurcher.

Spiked Smoker 75%  -   Kinda an essential role for the Spiked. Likilihood decreases slightly if the Spiked have the Mistborn on their side.

Spiked Soother/Rioter 75%  -   Chances are that they have at-least one of these roles.

Spiked Seeker 75%  -   Likelihood is high, unless they have the Mistborn, which would slightly decrease the likelihood.

Spiked Thug 50%  -   Making this 50% percent because there reason for there not being one as much as there is for there being one.

Spiked Lurcher 50%  -   Likelihood of there being a Spiked Lurcher is low, unless there isn't a Spiked Smoker or a Spiked Coinshot

Spiked Coinshot 25%  -   Likelihood of there being a coinshot when the spiked already have one kill per night is low.

Spiked Soother+Rioter 10%   -   Likelihood of there being both a Spiked Soother and a Rioter is pretty low.

Spiked Coinshot+Mistborn 10%  -  Likelihood of there being both a Spiked Coinshot and a Spiked Mistborn is low. Three kills in one night is a bit much.

 

The values are fairly arbitrary, but hopefully they (or rather, hopefully they don't) represents the probabilities effectively enough.

[el_warko he/him]

"Darn thaht Dry'eye, 'e were sposed ta farx me roof t'day. 'An Lanhts. tha' mahn owes ma money. T'wod beh rood not ta find wot I's owed"

 

Reading the words on Cyrus's house.

 

"So we gots sarm muhrdrs', ah falthy mistborne an a mamber of tha nite's wahtch 'ho alsa 'appens ta be in the Church 'a tha Red Gohd. Tha Docta's been busy"

 

Wark enters his hovel and feeds Baldrick and has his breakfast, scrambled eggs and a pint of stout.

 

Five Years Ago:

 

Wark turned and saw Maeve standing in the night, mistcloak drapped around her. "You know what I want Wark, you know what I've given you" She purred as she leaned in closer. Wark could feel her warmth as she touched him, the smell of lilac and freah earth filled his nostrils "You owe me".

 

"Oi wish Oi'd neva met yeh, Maggie fu'give me but I do. Tha nexht batcha tin will be smelt tommora, Oi'll do it than"

[Dalinar he/him]

Dyrii was dead. Arst hadn't been to see the body, but he'd been told. Cyrus killed, Dyrii dead. All by these heartless murderers.

Why. Why do people want to kill? I know these villagers. Which one of them could be the killer? What would motivate them to do such?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I Officialy Vote NO KILL, I Don't think we should Lynch till we have more Info. Though if we do so, There won't be Any Suspicions anyway. . .

PM me your Roles People! I'll Pm you Mine. And I'll Prove it.

EDIT: If you do want to Lynch someone, Vote for Lents . . .

Edited March 7, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Aspren]

Unlike in the previous game, I actually think that we should lynch, or at-least interrogate, someone. In the previous game there was an extremely low chance that we would  manage to lynch the Inquisitor; in this game at-least there's a much higher chance that we would manage to lynch a Spiked. We'd be wasting a whole day if no one is cast any suspicion. That kinda promotes being an inactive player, as it would be taking away most of the reason a person has to post.

In any case, since we may not have any Seekers left, it'll be much harder for us to obtain proof of whether someone is spiked or not. At-least if we "interrogate" someone we can obtain some information, rather than do nothing and obtain almost no information. By not lynching anyone we're effectively giving the Spiked a free cycle.

Edited March 7, 2014 by Aspren

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

"Oi wish Oi'd neva met yeh, Maggie fu'give me but I do. Tha nexht batcha tin will be smelt tommora, Oi'll do it than"

So Wark, you appear to be out of a Job, but you have Experiance Smelting metals. I can offer you a Job at my Store. Chidden is working up front, but I need someone working out back mixing the metals. You can have any extra Alcohol from the Vials as well as 1000 boxings a Month as Payment.

 

Besides, this way there's 3 of us in one place, Makes it unlikely for the Spike Squad to attack us.

Spikers? Spikes? Ironmen? Spiked sounds Boring. I'll call them the Spikers from now on, Sounds like Bikers.

[Metacognition he/him]

"Indeed. I'd like to chalk it up to Joe's inexperience, but anyone calling for a "No Vote" is suspicious in my mind. 

 

We need to make sure that everyone is talking. The killers will reveal themselves if they have to constantly build up lie after lie. As such, we should start trying to draw everyone out. That is why I'm going to start by asking Forage to give us an account of his whereabouts last night. 

My reasoning for this is simple; if they don't speak up, then they won't be much help to us in the long run, even if they do have a power. Every night, the votes get closer and closer and if we can't count on someone to help, then they will just provide a hiding place for us to have to consider later in the game (similar as what happened last game).

 

Here is a list of everyone that has yet to speak up. I will delete names off of it as they do step forward:

• Alon
• Erendi

The idea here is not to just lynch any of these people. We just need to get them talking so we can catch discrepancies. I find it far more likely that at least some of the Spiked have already spoken up. Of course, if we do have to lynch someone, doing so from a list of people who aren't actually playing isn't going to hurt us any." 

 

If Meta sounded like he was reading things right out of a book, it was because he was. He had found a copy of The Source of Detection, a book that all real detectives knew to be utter rubbish, but that Meta had memorized. Now that there was a true case to solve in Blackwater, he felt ill-equipped to deal with it and so he was reverting back to his training... which consisted of only reading that one book. 

Edited March 8, 2014 by Metacognition

[Mailliw73 he/him]

"Clan's a lazy no-good old man. And he criticized us who were volunteering to help. He hasn't spoke since then. I vote for him."

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Gamut had seen all of this before.

The mistrust. Betrayals. And death. Those would be the only things that would follow these chains of events. Gamut had seen it happen countless times before. And he had been powerless to stop it.

Not this time. He silently vowed. I will not let this happen again.

People were already beginning to voice suspicions, calling for the lynching of somebody -- anybody -- just as long as the bloodlust was sated. How many innocent heads would roll before they realized this wasn't the path to take? How many would wear the Nooseman's Necktie before they saw the errors of their ways?

"Voting for people right now only does the Spiked's work for them!" Gamut exclaimed, striding forward to the center of the room. "I wholely condone and support the idea of discussion and anlayises..... anal-.... an-...." he trailed off and looked over at Meta. "Pssht. Hey. Detective. What's the word I'm looking for? Oh. Right. Analysis!" He pounded his fist in his hands and continued on his tirade. "We need to analyze what everybody's been saying. Where they been, who they been talking to. That sorts of info. We need to catch them in a lie."

He gestured wildly in a grand arc, encompassing everybody in the room, "But I say we do not string up one of our mates until everybody's had their word.

"Now where's that bartender? All this talking has worked up me a thirst."

 

[el_warko he/him]

"Maws Dahd?, hewuz  jus' ac'cus'n Clan av been a mur'drah. Aside, i apprshi'at tha offa, thaths at least tehn mayb fiftin pahcint betta thahn 20 box'ins feh foive feeld a day thaht Maw pays but I canh work wif mehtals agen, not afftah tha las' tyme"

 

ewandered over to where Gamut was sitting at the bar.

 

"Yeh wrong yeh now Gah'mut.  If we starht killin' ech oth'a the spoiked 'ave a betta' chan's of doyin. If weh do nuttin', somewahn will doy an'way.  Thaht said, Oi'm givin' yah ahl til noit fahl ta speak yeh peace".

[Metacognition he/him]

"Ahem, Chapter 2:

 

Your targets will likely try to distract you from your goals without doing anything to help. They will likely lie and try to make themselves seem warmhearted when underneath, there is the frosty gaze of a killer."

 

Is that your game, Gamut? Meta thought as he watched the ex-pirate cross the street towards the Inn. Are you trying to keep us from figuring out what you're hiding? As a pirate, I would assume you've seen and dealt your fair share of death.

 

Indeed, it did not look good. Gamut was arguing against killing, but providing no other way to find the killers. Instead, all he said was to discuss and then he failed to take his own advice.

 

Most peculiar, Meta thought. I will have to keep an eye on him. 

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Very Well, I have retracted my No vote, but I'm still not certain as to If i should vote. Honestly, My Only Suspicion is Meta, For the simple reason that Evil looks after it's own, and we all know that Meta's Evil. So I'll vote eventually, but I'll vote for who I think is spiked. Until then, I'll vote for Lents. SInce he's dead anyway.

 

VOTES so Far

Joe Votes No Kill

Maw Votes Clan (Doesn't give Reason, other than lack of activity)

Meta wants people to vote, Votes Forage

Gamut wants People to Not Vote at all (Did you vote No Kill or not?)

Joe Follows Meta, and Votes Lents.

Dane Votes Mabi (For no Reason)

Wark Votes Forage

Clan Votes Alon

Meta Retracts, votes for Mac

Dalinar, then Grayv vote no one

Eddy and Joe retract their votes

Edited March 8, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Chid he/him]

• If no one speaks up against a lynch, then you're likely doing the work of these killers for them. They are a devious lot and they relish in letting us kill each other. As I write this, they will know these thoughts and try to confuse you, but be wary. 

 

Didn't I tell you not to trust anyone, Dr. Jones?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

CONNECTOR (DURALUMIN FERRING): During the Day Cycle, they can Choose to make their Vote not count. If they do, they can later tap it to make their vote count extra

 

I couldn't Copy and Paste or Quote, but thats a Shortened Version of the Official Rules. @PENG Does this mean that The Ferring has to Vote in Order to store her/his Vote? I'm not a Ferring

[Metacognition he/him]

I meant that more as in if no one speaks up against a lynch target. The Spiked will always want to defend themselves from getting lynched, so they will try to deflect votes onto other people.

 

That is why bandwagoning is dangerous. If the Spiked don't think that they'd be able to save one of their own, then they won't speak up and just go with the group. 

 

Now, they might try to use this against us and not defend themselves if one of them comes under the chopping block, but to do so would mean that they have to gamble on us actually changing our votes and that might not happen. 

[Edgedancer he/him]

By the time the next day started Dane´s head was a lot clearer. The dead of Cyrus was most likely the worst event the village had yet to face, still the killings would continue. Obviously they had to find and stop the killers but he also needed to take care of a negotiation with a noble in the area.

As he left his home he found a list stuck to his door. The contents seem senseible enough.

 

When he found a gathering he witnessed the town detective mandating for lynchings. The grim things we have to do. I am sorry Boss but we have to find them and we have no other way to search for them.

Dane joined Meta and started talking: "I know none of us like the thought of killing our own but if we don´t start putting pressure on our enemys they will just kill us, while we stay ignorant. I would like Mabi to give us account for her actions."

 

 

I have to admid that I don´t have any good reason to vote for Mabi or anyone at this point, I just agree with Meta that we have to lynch someone and seeing how people react to a wide array of votes seems better than bandwagoning. I also don´t want to kill anyone at the moment for being to active.

Edited March 7, 2014 by Edgedancer

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Joe Quietly Stole Meta's Detective Manual, and Replaced Chapter 3 with:

Chapter 3:

Be Careful when everyone knows your the Detective, Because Everyone also knows that he is above Suspicion as the Detective is, is the Most Suspicious. So you shouldn't go blathering your mouth off and trying to be the Center of attention. Otherwise, you might get lynched as a Spiked, Err, I mean Criminal.

Edited March 7, 2014 by The Only Joe

[el_warko he/him]

"Oi'd jus' loike ta point ou' tha resoudin' scoilance on be'alf a sum a me fella vill'gers may be relahted to a tome wruttin' boi a Mista Sarn'der'sun jus recent'li"

 

"Thaht said Baldrick an' me'self think Forage shud stop talkin' in tha thurd persin".

[Claincy he/him]

Quick apology: I probably will be less active this game than I have been in the past. A combination of Uni starting again, my MAG campaigns moving along/starting, planning for the next elimination game, and a number of other personal commitments and projects. I'll still be on each day to give my input and vote and a bit of rp though.

 

Clan glared at Maw.

"You'l find as you get older that being woken at unRulerly hours of the night leaves you with a need for sleep. Regardless, I wasn' havin' a go at those volunteering. I was warning Cyrus that he ought to have been paying closer attention to those he let get close to him when 'e new someone was out ta kill im."

 

"We shuld be wary of those 'oo are new around here and haven't appeared since the murder's las' night. Alon fits tha' bill quite nicely."

 

I agree that we need to throw accusations around and see what people say. Suggesting this strategy is precisely what got me killed last game.

 

Clan glared at Maw again, "Some of us 'ave done more an ow fair share of work in the past. Those oo've got it easy ought ta quit ther' bellyachin."

Edited March 8, 2014 by lord Claincy Ffnord

[Lanscaper]

Mabi was tired from the previous night, from the emotional and physical stresses that plagued her.  The death of Cyrus to whom she was indebted to for her freedom was still something that she was processing.  Without realizing it in her deadened stupor she had returned to his house and fallen asleep there.  When she woke she could feel the salt from her tears as she had mourned the loss of a man that was a great friend to her.

 

Looking out the window the light was already up, and from the sounds outside a town meeting was in progress of forming. She needed to look presentable in the light, and wash away some of the salt from her tears.  She found Cyrus' washbasin and mirror and cleaned herself up as best she could, and tried to smooth out the wrinkles of her dress.

 

On her way out she noticed one of the children staring at something, and in the light of day she saw the etched scrawl on the side of the wall.  Her limited literacy made it so that she could only piece together some words here and there for some of the messages, although she did find the symmetry of one of the messages aesthetically pleasing, until she tried comprehending the actual meaning.

 

She had dallied enough and she made her way toward the town meeting, just to hear young and handsome Dane ask for her to account for herself.

 

Others quickly interrupted and Mabi took some time to collect her thoughts about what had happened, digging past the grief that she felt to the man to whom she owed her life and freedom for the past decade and a half.  She got closer to Dane to make sure that he would be able to hear her as well as anyone else who decided to listen to her.

 

"Dane, as you and many of us know I was one of the people that volunteered to stay with Cyrus at his house last night."  She turned to Maw and some of the other volunteers who had stayed with Cyrus to try to stop his death from happening searching their expressions, "I was with the others when for no apparent reason Cyrus up and dashed out the door. We didn't even know what was happening, otherwise we would have tried to keep up with him or stop him, but he was just too fast!"  The words tumbled out her her mouth the memories and the sense of helplessness that she had felt the previous night weighing heavily in her mind.  "By the time we caught up with him as a group he was already.."  Her words dried up, she couldn't bear recalling that memory and tears threatened to takeover her.  Mabi focused on her breathing trying to keep herself under control.

 

"Afterwards I must have followed the crowd."  She finished. "What about you Dane, you were with the rest of us that stayed at Cyrus', did you notice anything else?"