Mid-Range Game 18: Patji's Cauldron

[Clanky he/him]

We both had taken over a the point there was no kill Nyali. I was just MIA for a day which is why Aman suspects me. I have been thinking recently about STINK agreeing to being sacrificed so that some teammates can get trusted, aka Aman. That would also explain the Mage lynch. Once one person who contributed to STINKs lynch was killed and found innocent the others would gain even more trust than normally they would. Still that's just paranoia more than anything at this point

[Doc12]

So, this is the final round, isn't it? All or nothing. 

Why has it been so quiet?

Anyways, I'm surprised we haven't lost yet. Guess this means Nyali was right and there were only four eliminators. Three now.

Okay, so Polking turned out to be village.

So last cycle I stated I was suspicious of Polking and Assassin. However, I realize I've made a mistake by going after Polking, who turned out to be truly inactive, rather than Assassin, who was active enough to see him being called out and managing to reply. To me, Assassin now looks like an eliminator who has been contentedly reading the thread, not seeing the need to post and conveniently flying under the radar until the votes started piling on him, on which he decided to speak up.

Coincidentally, this also ties in with why I think Ecth died. Last cycle, Ecth went after Assassin immediately after Assassin posted, placing a vote on him. Sure, he removed it later, but I think it might have spooked Assassin, and thus Ecth died because he was uncomfortably close. 

Unlike the lynch on Polking, where we didnt' have any solid leads, I feel this lead is stronger, and I will cast my vote on Assassin in Burgundy. @Assassin in Burgundy. 

This is our final round to make a difference. We've been very bad at the lynches this game, and we need to get this one right.

@I_am_a_Stick is really the only other person who hasn't been posting much. Make your stance known, Stick.

Remaining players:

1. Doc

2. Aman 

3. Jondesu

4. Clanky

5. Nyali

6. Assassin 

7. Stick

8. Wonko

So, Five of us are village, three of them are eliminators. My money's on Assassin, Wonko and Clanky, but we'll see. We seriously need to get his one right. 

In other news, I will be totally absent tomorrow due to my exams, just a heads up. Wish me luck!

[Amanuensis he/him]

Life's a bit crazy right now, and I don't have much time to post, so I will say as much as I can and revisit this thread later, when I have more time.

I'm not going to bother reiterating that we are dangerously close to losing, other people have covered that enough. But since no one else has done the analysis of yesterday's votes, I'll take care of that now.

Ecth, a now confirmed villager, was the first player to lay down a vote. It was on Clanky because of the last minute "I think the person we're lynching is village." Although his theory proved wrong for Daniyah, who did the same thing before Clanky, it is a valid reason to vote someone, and another factor contributing to my suspicions of Clanky.

Next, Doc votes on polking because, well... I'm not entirely sure. He didn't specify why him over Assassin and Clanky, just said that he believed one of the three are a Traitor, which I agreed with, due to the missing kill on D3.. So yeah, I'm a bit suspicious of this, but I still think an eliminator is more likely to tamper with a vote towards the end than lay the foundation of one.

Clanky was the next player to lay down a vote, and it was on Assassin because his last post was asking if STINK was "Ookla the Bard" and not Bard. Considering this post was 12 hours after an edit that STINK made to point out it was him, Clanky thought it was an attempt at distancing himself from a teammate. I can see that as well, in retrospect, although I'm a bit skeptical of Clanky himself, and the amount of effort Assassin has put into this game seems pretty standard to him.

Nyali was the next person to lay down a vote, and this time it was on Doc. Despite her saying for most of the game that she was more suspicious of polking (who despite being suspicious of him, never seemed to really push his death), she goes for Doc because of how he's been a part of every mislynch, and that she was certain either him or Mage (who was also village) is a Traitor.

Going to go on a bit of a tangent here. This is also the post that Nyali crunches the numbers of how things can possibly go from here. One thing I noticed is that every scenario she proposed ended with a tie in numbers. Not one shows the village achieving victory, which implies to me that either Nyali is really pessimistic about this game, or that she knows something that we don't.

Ecth retracts her vote on Clanky in favor of Assassin due to a recent post where he seemed to be making excuses for why it doesn't plan on voting that turn (basically, he was clueless and didn't want to act uninformed).

So I post soon after and try to get Jond, polking and Wonko to vote, since they hadn't talked about the lynch yet, to which Jond responds soon after with a vote on Doc. He says he is most suspicious of Doc and Nyali, but decides to vote for Doc because her "paths" seemed earnest and his gut was telling him Doc was bad.

Now the interesting thing is, as soon as I vote for polking (when I say as soon, I mean literally 6 minutes after I post it) for relatively weak reasoning, Jond jumps on the opportunity to lynch polking because "he was swayed by the constant focus" on him. That... is not a good way to play this game from a villager perspective, but from an elim one, jumping on the opportunity to kill any villager, even if you aren't suspicious of them, is perfectly valid, especially when it's this close.

Not even 2 minutes later, Nyali basically does the same thing. Despite her saying we're two mislynches from losing this game, she says "If we're wrong and he's a villager, at least he's an inactive one."

I won't try claiming my reasons for voting for polking were any better, but a sudden shift like that is nothing but suspicious. Right now I'm a bit torn who to vote for, because if their not both evil then this game might very well be over. But at this point I'm certain one of them is.

And I've got to go. I'll try to get on and vote as soon as I can.

[Nyali she/her]

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Going to go on a bit of a tangent here. This is also the post that Nyali crunches the numbers of how things can possibly go from here. One thing I noticed is that every scenario she proposed ended with a tie in numbers. Not one shows the village achieving victory, which implies to me that either Nyali is really pessimistic about this game, or that she knows something that we don't.

That was me illustrating and emphasizing that if we mislynch twice, we lose. I've been assuming a tie in numbers is a loss, though since tied lynches kill a random player, maybe we don't lose until the elims have strictly more people than we do? If that's the case, our odds are slightly better.

 

What I've been wondering lately is, Aman has been doing extremely thorough analyses since he joined. The elims have not killed him, they are instead killing people who aren't following his lead. If so many of us are so certain that he's a townie, why haven't the elims killed him yet? Is anyone else worried by this? We have one chance left (assuming ties go to the eliminators) to be right here.

[Stick. she/her]

Sorry for not posting much, I was rather busy...But I'm here now

Well, if we really are left with one chance rn, I'd say we decide on whom to lynch before turnover. Like, seriously, right now, we have three players voting on three different players...

So I'm going to go ahead and agree with doc and place my vote on Assassin. I hope he doesn't turn out to be a villager considering how all of the players I've voted on previously have been villagers...Though I'm going to go through last cycle once again, and may change my vote if I find someone more suspicious 

4 hours ago, Nyali said:

What I've been wondering lately is, Aman has been doing extremely thorough analyses since he joined. The elims have not killed him, they are instead killing people who aren't following his lead. If so many of us are so certain that he's a townie, why haven't the elims killed him yet? Is anyone else worried by this? We have one chance left (assuming ties go to the eliminators) to be right here.

maybe that's what they want you to think? (please ignore all these suspiciousninja emojis- they aren't going away for some reason :/ ) Though it'd be pretty hilarious if Aman does turn out to be an elim lol

[Nyali she/her]

@Assassin in Burgundy @Wonko the Sane @Jondesu - Could any of you add to the discussion and/or vote? The elims just need one more kill, and if townies aren't active, the elims completely control the vote.

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

Sorry, I'm loaded with a lot of end-of-term schoolwork. I'll take a break from writing my essay to say that I am also growing suspicious of Aman, but his points about Nyali ring true to me. It's interesting that he didn't vote for her, though. Gah, I should go with my gut here: Aman. It just doesn't make sense to me that you're still alive.

[Clanky he/him]

All that they need to do at this point is show up in the last couple minutes and place votes all on one villager and it's game over. I don't really like my option here but unfortunately I'm not sure if I will be around much more this cycle. The best I can do is try and provide a lynch that the elims can't take over. Assassin Nyali

 

EDIT: Post 1000! Cool, maybe I should've waited till I had something cooler to say for number 1000. 

Edited December 2, 2016 by Clanky

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

2 minutes ago, Clanky said:

All that they need to do at this point is show up in the last couple minutes and place votes all on one villager and it's game over. I don't really like my option here but unfortunately I'm not sure if I will be around much more this cycle. The best I can do is try and provide a lynch that the elims can't take over. Assassin Nyali

You have a point, but if the vote is already on a villager, they don't even need to do that. I suggest that as many people as possible watch at rollover. If there isn't a sudden switch by anyone, Assassin is likely innocent, and we need to move the lynch fast.

[Clanky he/him]

1 minute ago, Wonko the Sane said:

You have a point, but if the vote is already on a villager, they don't even need to do that. I suggest that as many people as possible watch at rollover. If there isn't a sudden switch by anyone, Assassin is likely innocent, and we need to move the lynch fast.

I'll do my best but I'm fairly busy for the rest of the night. However I don't think this will work anyways given the fact that all the villagers don't trust each other and that there is no way to tell whether it's an eliminator or villager leading a last minute vote change. How would you tell your plan apart from eliminators trying to swing the vote?

[Wonko the Sane he/him]

Just now, Clanky said:

I'll do my best but I'm fairly busy for the rest of the night. However I don't think this will work anyways given the fact that all the villagers don't trust each other and that there is no way to tell whether it's an eliminator or villager leading a last minute vote change. How would you tell your plan apart from eliminators trying to swing the vote?

Umm... Uh... Hm. I did not think of that. But I'm really worried. I don't think Assassin is evil, and if we kill him, we may well be dooming ourselves. I'm trying to figure out a way to confirm him before it's too late. If no one else switches, I will definitely be trying to move the vote. I have no way to confirm myself to you, though. I guess we'll see how this plays out.

[Nyali she/her]

I can get behind an Aman vote. I'm now thinking Clanky, Aman, and Stick are the elims. I know that's a reversal from earlier, but I don't think Assassin is an elim, and I think the elims are going to be the most organized and are going to get their votes down sooner rather than later.

Doc Amanuensis

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 hours ago, Nyali said:

 

What I've been wondering lately is, Aman has been doing extremely thorough analyses since he joined. The elims have not killed him, they are instead killing people who aren't following his lead. If so many of us are so certain that he's a townie, why haven't the elims killed him yet? Is anyone else worried by this? We have one chance left (assuming ties go to the eliminators) to be right here.

I've been deliberating on that myself for a while, and I think I've figured out why. To answer your question, I suspect it's because aside from Stink, my logic has been completely wrong. For one, who so far have I advocated we kill? Magestar and Jondesu come to mind, whom the first has since been proven a villager. I'm starting to believe that Jondesu is innocent as well. Furthermore, I have been supporting the theory that the missing kill was because STINK's team was inactive at the time: I.E. Assassin, Clanky and polking. In fact, it was this exact reasoning that has kept me from attempting to lynch you. Likewise, I have similarly been ignoring Wonko completely, in favor of people who have actually been getting involved. While I'll admit that none of this was an intentional trap, it suddenly all makes sense to me.

I haven't been killed because I was leading the village astray while ignoring the rest of the elims. I believe that there was no kill on C3 because you, Nyali, wanted to frame the inactives and make yourself look innocent in one fell swoop, because of course you wouldn't forget to put a kill in. We know that Magestar didn't hop his vote to bus STINK. I suspect that you, however, threw on that last, meaningless vote for two ends: to show that you participated in killing an elim, and to give you evidence to cite that you were active despite there being no kill.

Now, I think you've been putting the kill orders in this whole time on players who I have said I trusted who weren't your teammates. For example, I entered this game saying I trusted Dani the most, and although I said my trust for her had subsided significantly before you killed her, I think that order had been decided upon much earlier. Next, Ecth was the victim, another villager who I had openly claimed I didn't believe was an elim.

I also have a theory, branching off what I addressed earlier with your paths to defeat. You're trying to mislead us into thinking that this game has 4 elims, when in truth, it only began with 3: Yourself, STINK and Wonko. Isn't it funny how I was the one to attempt to prod Wonko back into activity this previous turn, and he never posted? But as soon as he posts this turn, it's with a vote on me, for no other reason than I'm still alive and that I didn't put a vote on Nyali, which I will note in blue text should be obvious why, because I had to suddenly leave and didn't want to vote until I thought more about the situation. Makes sense if this whole time your team was intentionally not killing me so that I would continue to protect you and lynch villagers, and just in case I started getting closer to the truth, you could turn the lynch on me by saying "Aman is still alive! He must be evil!"

In conclusion, I believe that there are only two eliminators left, Nyali and Wonko, and that the remaining players are all village. While it's possible that there is a third elim left, I think that Nyali has been misleading us in that regard this whole time. I suppose we'll have to worry about that when we get there, however.

[Nyali she/her]

Why Wonko? Just because of the vote on you? If we were elims, why would we kill Ec and not you if we were planning to try to get you lynched? It would have been infinitely easier to do that the other way around. That just doesn't make any sense.

 

@Jondesu and @Assassin in Burgundy - could we please get votes from you two? The only way we stand a chance is if all villagers vote. We have a distinct disadvantage in that the elims can cancel a vote with their kill.

Edited December 2, 2016 by Nyali

[Clanky he/him]

I don't like how both of you seem to be trying to split the votes this late in the cycle.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Pretty much, yes. It doesn't make sense for me to be an elim, especially from my perspective, and Wonko's poor logic in voting for me, coupled with your sudden reversal, doesn't sit well in my gut. I'm voting for you over him because there's a lot more evidence of you being evil, Nyali, and at least killing you will buy the village another turn if I'm wrong about him.

Edited December 2, 2016 by Amanuensis
Added words to clarify my thought

[Nyali she/her]

7 minutes ago, Clanky said:

I don't like how both of you seem to be trying to split the votes this late in the cycle.

This cycle should end with only two people having votes for them. That's the only way the village can win. We need two trains - the elims aren't going to vote for themselves when only one lynch is needed for them to win. (Unless I'm wrong about the number or what happens on a tie.) We need to wind up consolidated.

 

EDIT: @Amanuensis - I'm not going to bother trying to defend myself, but I'd like you to look at the voting patterns of this turn. Do you think @Assassin in Burgundy is an eliminator? That train on him stared awfully fast. If you think he's innocent, whom among the voters for him is most suspicious to you? I'm not certain you are an elim, that was a gut read from the fact that you've been wrong a lot. But, I do believe very strongly that the elims are going to focus their votes this turn. I don't expect you to change your vote, but in the case that you are a villager, which of Clanky, Doc, and Stick do you trust the least?

Edited December 2, 2016 by Nyali

[Amanuensis he/him]

Which train on Assassin? Last turn, there were only two votes on him. Clanky and Ecth. The only train came after I joined the vote on polking with Doc. As soon as I voted for polking, Jondesu, yourself and Ecth changed your votes to polking. We know Ecth is village, now. I personally find Jond and your votes a lot more suspicious than Doc's, for example, although I've been saying that later votes trigger red flags more than earlier ones, so I suppose Doc could be evil. I suppose Assassin could be evil, but if he is, than my gut says that for sure, either you or Jond have to be, too.

Edited December 2, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Nyali she/her]

Umm, Assassin has three votes this turn. I'm talking about this turn.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Oh, sorry. I didn't think he'd accrued that many. For some reason I thought Clanky still had his vote on you, and I didn't even notice Stick's post. Logically, it makes more sense to me that Clanky is evil, since he was the only one to change his vote when the lynch wasn't going the direction he was trying to prod it. But aside from STINK, who I only really caught because I noticed he cared a lot more about surviving this game than he does whenever he's a villager, my logic appears to have been wrong. So maybe Doc is actually evil? I suppose Stick could be, too, but her level of activity doesn't really suggest to me that she would be putting kill orders in every turn.

Edited December 2, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Doc12]

Sorry I can't say much it's 6am and I'm about to leave, but I've been slightly suspicious of Nyali the whole game, and Aman just helped me fully form my suspicions. 

Assassin  

Nyali  

@I_am_a_Stick

@Clanky

[Nyali she/her]

Okay, that definitely looks like a voting bloc now. Amanuensis, Doc

@Wonko the Sane

[Jondesu he/him]

Based on my previous suspicions and the talk so far, I'm putting my vote on Nyali. *crosses fingers*

[Nyali she/her]

Just now, Jondesu said:

Based on my previous suspicions and the talk so far, I'm putting my vote on Nyali. *crosses fingers*

Just keep in mind that there are likely 3 elims. If everyone is voting for me except me, you can be sure that some actual elims are participating in the vote.

[Amanuensis he/him]

I feel inclined to agree with you, Nyali, which is why I'm starting to have my doubts right now. Ugh. I have to get ready for work, but I should be on again in approximately one hour. See you all then.