Long Game 24: The Godless City

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 hours ago, Renegade said:

 

Well, this turned out infinitely worse than I'd anticipated. Though, I guess I should've realized that I have to be an eliminator because nobody else would dare threaten such a trusted player.

I don't think that's the exact issue here, Ren. I definitely didn't take anything you said threateningly. I can understand why things might look the way you presented them from the write up alone, but the evidence just isn't there. All I'm trying to do is argue my case because I know for a fact that's not what happened, and the main reason I'm even suspicious of you at all was your immediate certainty and that you seem so intent on blaming me for what happened. Maybe you're just a villager who made his suspicions immediately known in public without knowing all the details. Lopen even said he thought the same thing when he read it, but just confined those thoughts to his PMs. Do you have something to present that could help support the belief that you're not an eliminator? I'm not asking you to role claim in public or anything like that, but if you're a citizen you've got to be one of 9 roles, and they're all pretty easy to verify.

1. Legionnaire: Did you Arrest someone last night? If so, can they vouch for you?
2. ChayShan Practioner: Who have you attacked? If you've attacked no one yet, will you attack someone tonight?
3. Retired Pirate: You're in no danger of dying if this is the case.
4. Bodyguard: Who have you protected so far? Can you protect someone specific tonight so a ChayShan can attack them to prove it?
5. Merchant: We can set up a vote for you to cancel to prove this easily enough.
6. Duke: All you have to do is add your vote to another player that we decide on.
7. Dula: Who have you scanned so far?
8. Noble: Same thing as Duke, really.
9. Beggar: What role have you taken, if you have taken one already? Can you prove that now?

If you're one of these 9 and you truly are a citizen, there should be someone you trust enough to claim it to if you don't want to do it publicly. If you're not any of these 9 and can't prove it... well, then chances are you're Neutral-Evil or Jeskeri. I think the main problem for me is that I have an alibi when you don't. I was Arrested last night, so I'm guaranteed not to be the Jeskeri Practitioner or the Philosopher at least. Whereas you... do you have any solid proof or anyone who can vouch for you?

 

@STINK

(4) Renegade: Amanuensis, Elenion, Arraenae, Conquestor,

(1) Amanuensis: Renegade,

Edited August 8, 2016 by Amanuensis

[STINK he/him]

Alright thanks Aman  So I reckon we should just assume that Elenion is gonna use his ability on Ren, making it 5. So bit hard to like shift the vote, I reckon.

[Emerald101 he/him]

I did not lie about having been attacked. I have not to my knowledge spread misinformation. The only explanation I can conceive is either that there is a protection role which doesn't count as a "bodyguard equivalent" or that Joe made an error in the writeup. I have PM'd Joe about the situation and am currently awaiting his response.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

If a Player is saved by a protective role, their attack is not revealed in the writeup. However, the Jeskeri Practitioner is a exception to that. Normally, if an arrested player is attacked, it wouldn't be revealed, just like if a player is protected by a bodyguard. The JP's target will always appear in the writeup anonymously if others are killed.

So, in this case, you know for certain that the JP attacked whomever Magestar arrested.

[Elenion he/him]

39 minutes ago, Emerald101 said:

I did not lie about having been attacked. I have not to my knowledge spread misinformation. The only explanation I can conceive is either that there is a protection role which doesn't count as a "bodyguard equivalent" or that Joe made an error in the writeup. I have PM'd Joe about the situation and am currently awaiting his response.

Joe has corroborated your story and you are now back in my "Neutral Reads" category.

1 hour ago, STINK said:

Alright thanks Aman  So I reckon we should just assume that Elenion is gonna use his ability on Ren, making it 5. So bit hard to like shift the vote, I reckon.

The order is already in. 

2 hours ago, Arraenae said:

What did you expect?

We haven't even passed the 24 hour mark yet. You still have about 33 hours to make your case about Aman. Who knows? Maybe I'll go home, tally up everybody's arguments, and decide that Aman has duped everyone and must be killed. The lynch isn't set in stone yet. We're still open to new info and arguments.

I'm with Rae here, @Renegade. I have a few suspicions about Aman, but Orlok has corroborated his story so far. If you can punch a hole in it and prove that @Amanuensis lied I'm more than happy to switch my votes.

A final note: a couple days ago (I could get the post if it proved important) I put a vote on Renegade due to Maill's info dump. @Kipper almost immediately tried to disprove the dump, and since I had no reason not to trust Kipper I retracted my vote. If Ren ends up being an elim, chances are Kipper is too.

[Sart he/him]

20 hours ago, The Only Joe said:

Jaime was a Citizen, NOT a Jeskeri. Neither was Elodin. There is no 'Outed Jeskeri' Mechanic. Mailliw and Elodin made that up. That is a prime example of Deliberate misdirection.

The specific circumstances that reveal the Jeskeri Practitioner are the succesful death of more than one player in an attack. The Jeskeri Acolyte, PAFO. BG's can protect against Practitioner kills. So can Legionnaires. There are no Items. This is what happens if the Jeskeri Practitioner targets an arrested player. The Legionnaire who arrested the player, and all who attempted to target them, (In this case, Jaime, WIlson and Elodin) Die.

Emphasis mine.

I need a clarification on that. Does this line mean that people targeting Magestar were also affected by Jeskeri Practictioner? If so, that would make a lot more sense than the theory of Aman being targeted by everyone. Not sure what that means about his alignment, but it would make a lot more sense in my mind.

At this point, I think we need to lynch Stink. We started out with 28 players, so having 5 eliminators seems probable, especially if they only have a kill every third cycle. There's also the matter of the Serial Killer running about, who is either a 6th evil, or takes the place of one of the five. We're down to 17 players now. If there's 6 evil players, over a third of the town is against us. Even if there's only five, it's still close to a third. It's going to be ridiculously hard at this point to lynch a Jeskeri, since they're going to have at least 3 other players supporting them. We need as many town votes as possible, before the situation gets even worse. That's why I cannot allow Stink to live. He's supposedly a neutral role, which could easily swing the vote in the Jeskeri's favor. That would be a nightmare scenario. If he is actually town, then he is fishing for a kill, and is probably a Retired Pirate. It costs us an extra life, but it doesn't cost us a vote. If he's actually Jeskeri or the Serial Killer, we've managed to gain back an advantage. Whichever way I look at it, he's the safe choice. That's all from me for now. I don't have work for the next three days, so I should be more active now.

[STINK he/him]

Sart's evil.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Huh, that line basically confirmed that all four players killed by the JP targeted the prisoner.

[Arraenae]

26 minutes ago, Sart said:

At this point, I think we need to lynch Stink. We started out with 28 players, so having 5 eliminators seems probable, especially if they only have a kill every third cycle. There's also the matter of the Serial Killer running about, who is either a 6th evil, or takes the place of one of the five. We're down to 17 players now. If there's 6 evil players, over a third of the town is against us. Even if there's only five, it's still close to a third. It's going to be ridiculously hard at this point to lynch a Jeskeri, since they're going to have at least 3 other players supporting them. We need as many town votes as possible, before the situation gets even worse. That's why I cannot allow Stink to live. He's supposedly a neutral role, which could easily swing the vote in the Jeskeri's favor. That would be a nightmare scenario. If he is actually town, then he is fishing for a kill, and is probably a Retired Pirate. It costs us an extra life, but it doesn't cost us a vote. If he's actually Jeskeri or the Serial Killer, we've managed to gain back an advantage. Whichever way I look at it, he's the safe choice. That's all from me for now. I don't have work for the next three days, so I should be more active now.

Actually, we do lose a vote. Let's say Stink just wants to survive, or is village. We lynch him. The Serial Killer attacks that Night. Now we're down at least one more member. We're one person closer to death. You said it yourself -- we need as many town votes as possible, before the situation gets worse. If we lynch Stink when there's no real suspicion on him, we allow the SK and Jeskeri one more Night to kill people.

I find your post pretty suspicious. This sounds like something an eliminator might do to get us to waste a lynch, and maybe spare their own teammate. If you have evidence that Stink is neutral-evil or an eliminator, I'm all ears. I won't lynch Stink because Joe and his brother chose to give him a neutral role.

[Elenion he/him]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

At this point, I think we need to lynch Stink. We started out with 28 players, so having 5 eliminators seems probable, especially if they only have a kill every third cycle. There's also the matter of the Serial Killer running about, who is either a 6th evil, or takes the place of one of the five. We're down to 17 players now. If there's 6 evil players, over a third of the town is against us. Even if there's only five, it's still close to a third. It's going to be ridiculously hard at this point to lynch a Jeskeri, since they're going to have at least 3 other players supporting them. We need as many town votes as possible, before the situation gets even worse. That's why I cannot allow Stink to live. He's supposedly a neutral role, which could easily swing the vote in the Jeskeri's favor. That would be a nightmare scenario. If he is actually town, then he is fishing for a kill, and is probably a Retired Pirate. It costs us an extra life, but it doesn't cost us a vote. If he's actually Jeskeri or the Serial Killer, we've managed to gain back an advantage. Whichever way I look at it, he's the safe choice. That's all from me for now. I don't have work for the next three days, so I should be more active now.

But the problem is is that @STINK could also vote like a villager, and so lynching him could lose us the vote that--as you point out--we'd need to kill a Jeskeri.

Besides, if you were STINK, who would you side with? He knows that if he votes as a block with the Jeskeri then we'll catch on and see him as vulnerable and expendable. The Jeskeri have no real motivation to attack STINK, so he's probably safer with us, unless we start advocating lynching him. I know: I did at one point agree that killing STINK would be logical, but a now-hard-cleared Elodin told me it was a chull idea, and now that every vote matters I'm inclined to agree with him.

[Elenion he/him]

When Ashkelon awoke, his jaw was still throbbing from the mishap with the staff. Rolling out of bed to his left, he groaned as his feet hit the floor. He pulled out a knife and was in the midst of trimming down his toenails when he heard a scratching at the window.

If that's another thief, things might get a bit dangerous for him.

Grabbing his pre-cocked crossbow from the floor (he still hadn't found another carpenter to replace the one he'd attacked educated), Ashkelon crept up to the window and lifted the blinds, placing his crossbow to the window before his eye. He met the gaze of an extremely-confused painter, who'd been in the midst of putting a fresh coat of white on the inn's exterior.

Speaking of the inn, I may as well pay the next couple weeks of my rent.

Ashkelon grabbed some more of the money from the vault (it was getting rather low now), and went downstairs. He saw the interesting character from the first day (who everyone blamed the inn's strange colors on) in the lobby, but paid little heed because money was far more important to watch. But while he was downstairs, Ashkelon heard an abhorrent noise: the sound of beggars asking for money outside. But then, wicked idea in mind, Ashkelon ascended the stairs back to his room.

The painter had climbed down his ladder for a break indoors, but had left his painting supplies in a bucket hung from a hook attached to the top rung of the ladder. Ashkelon opened the window, grabbed the suspended bucket, and hauled it into his apartment. Looking down as he did so, he could see the tops of the beggars' heads on the street below.

Beggars: no better than tip-soliciting thieves!

Taking careful aim into the street below, Ashkelon felt no remorse as he emptied the bucket of white paint over the beggars' heads.

[Sart he/him]

Lynching STINK isn't going to cost us a vote. Regardless of what we do, the Serial Killer is going to attack. Since we lost three protection roles last night, it seems likely we're going to lose another vote. They could hit a Jeskeri, but it's more likely that they're going to hit another villager. That's not good. Meanwhile, Stink will have less and less reason to actually vote with the village. I don't think he would vote as a block with them, but he might be contacted in a PM to change his vote to someone else. If he's neutral, then his vote should be treated as neutral or evil, not as a village vote.

There's also the matter of if Stink is actually neutral in the first place. There's no evidence for it other than Stink's word, unless a Dula decided to scan him. The claim has allowed him to go under the radar as a possible Jeskeri or Serial Killer. I also find it interesting when Stink revealed. He revealed after a couple of votes were placed on him early in Day 1. While that could be for trolling purposes, I can see a more sinister reason. If Stink was evil, he would be more paranoid about the lynch. That could also explain the sudden reveal. It netted him a fair amount of suspicion, but his gamble has paid off. I need to go through his posts tomorrow to make sure I'm not being paranoid, but I believe this to be the best course of action.

[Elenion he/him]

1 minute ago, Sart said:

Lynching STINK isn't going to cost us a vote. Regardless of what we do, the Serial Killer is going to attack. Since we lost three protection roles last night, it seems likely we're going to lose another vote. They could hit a Jeskeri, but it's more likely that they're going to hit another villager. That's not good. Meanwhile, Stink will have less and less reason to actually vote with the village. I don't think he would vote as a block with them, but he might be contacted in a PM to change his vote to someone else. If he's neutral, then his vote should be treated as neutral or evil, not as a village vote.

There's also the matter of if Stink is actually neutral in the first place. There's no evidence for it other than Stink's word, unless a Dula decided to scan him. The claim has allowed him to go under the radar as a possible Jeskeri or Serial Killer. I also find it interesting when Stink revealed. He revealed after a couple of votes were placed on him early in Day 1. While that could be for trolling purposes, I can see a more sinister reason. If Stink was evil, he would be more paranoid about the lynch. That could also explain the sudden reveal. It netted him a fair amount of suspicion, but his gamble has paid off. I need to go through his posts tomorrow to make sure I'm not being paranoid, but I believe this to be the best course of action.

Even if STINK is suspicious, I think Ren is currently more so. We could try to tie the vote, but between Nobles and Merchants that might be hard, plus some players still aren't totally sure about my loyalty with my Duke vote. Overall, I think we should focus on Ren, then use that information to direct village Chay-Shans in the night.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Y'know, I didn't really cover this angle before, but it could be that Aman is a Cultist but didn't plan for Wilson and Jaime to protect him and his buddies just targeted him as a WGG of sorts and so they could take out Magestar and Elodin and the fact that Wilson and Jaime targeted him was just lucky for them. Although someone may have brought this up before. I don't know, I'm really sleep right now, so I can't remember and don't want to go through all the posts again. Anyways, just a thought. I don't really feel comfortable with the Ren lynch, since everyone is basically accusing him for exactly what I said and thought and I know I'm village.

Sart, hm. I don't think we should lynch Stink. I personally believe his claim of Neutral and I don't want to ruin his fun when it's not even really the best idea anyways. We really should be focusing on lynching a Jeskeri, not killing people that could potentially hurt us later on. At least that's my opinion.

One thing I do know. I'd like it if more people weighed in on the situation. @Burnt Spaghetti, @Aonar Faileas, what do you think about this Aman v. Ren thing? I'd ping the other quieter players, but I can't even remember who they are.  Oh wait. @TheSilverDragon We need everyone to be fully participating in discussion if we want to have a legitimate chance at winning this people!

Also, I'll be gone for most of tomorrow, so don't expect PM responses any time soon if you PM me. I will almost definitely get back with you before the end of the Day though.

[TheSilverDragon he/him]

Ok, I'm of the opinion that lynching STINK would be a bad idea, since that basically wastes a whole lynch. We should be more focused on trying to actually find the jeskeri. If a dula wanted to scan stink tonight, I would be all for it, but we do not need to go around lynching people who are most likely not evil.

As for lynching aman, I don't know ow at the time where I stand on the one. He could have organised a bit of that whole mass grave, but that sounds every implausible to me. He could have only organised a bit of it, like lopen suggested, which is much more possible.

Ren on the other hand isn't the much more suspicious to me. Voting right off the bat for aman isn't something that screams of evil, I was even of the position that aman was evil at the begging, I just didn't vote right away, so I'm not suspicious enough of ren to vote for him(? I don't know ren's gender)

As for my role, elenion can vouch that I am indeed one of those nine, as well as lopen I guess, though not to the extent that elenion can. Silverblade could also vouch, but she's dead.

[Aonar he/him]

@TheMightyLopen You already know what my feelings are on this lynch.  

But, for the benefit of the class, I'm not buying the idea of complete coincidence, here. As I'm reading it, either Aman is an Eliminator, there's a third party that knew multiple people would be targeting Aman that night (any suggestions, @Amanuensis?) or the Jeskeri have some means of ensuring that players target the Practitioner's victim. 

Even if Aman is innocent (as he could well be, in two of the above scenarios, although I would note that they are not mutually contradictory) I'm not feeling the Ren lynch. Although he hasn't been active enough for me to get a solid read on him, nothing he's done this cycle has stuck me as terribly Eliminatory. The main reason he's even up for the lynch is because Aman attacked his logic (which, while not perfect, was not unsound) in the thread.  

I'd rather vote for a player that I find honestly suspicious (like Rae, Burnt, Sart or Emerald) But at this point, with ~12 hours left in the cycle, and me going to be away from internet access for at least a day or so, I'm not going to place a vote for one of them with no idea what is going to happen with it, and no ability to change it should that become necessary.

[Emerald101 he/him]

I'm trying to make sense of the mess of actions that occurred. If Aman and Orlok are telling the truth about the PM (which may or may not be the case) I can find no reasonable scenario which would convince Wilson to protect Aman, except some kind of manipulation from Aman, or some kind of ability-redirection role the Jeskeri might have (like Aonar mentioned.). To me, that's the crux of the matter. Wilson is not a dumb player. She would not have protected Aman without what she felt was solid reasoning. Either WIlson was led to believe that Aman would need extra protection last night, she was forced to target Aman because of a secret role, or Aman and Orlok are lying about the contents of the PM (or even it's existence) and Wilson targeted Aman for reasons of her own without knowing for sure that Aman would be protected.

In the first scenario, Aman may or may not have done the manipulation, but given the circumstances of the alleged PM, is the most likely candidate. In scenario two, Aman is completely innocent. In scenario three, both Aman and Orlok are Jeskeri, and are pulling the wool over our eyes with this PM they've cooked up.

I refuse to believe that Wilson protected Aman without a logical reason unless she was forced to by a role. She may have been manipulated into it, but the reasoning behind her decision is our best chance of solving the riddle we've got here.

[Arraenae]

Did anyone here use their role to target a player other than Aman last Night?

Has anybody's actions ever been redirected to a player they didn't originally target?

[Elenion he/him]

4 hours ago, TheSilverDragon said:

Ok, I'm of the opinion that lynching STINK would be a bad idea, since that basically wastes a whole lynch. We should be more focused on trying to actually find the jeskeri. If a dula wanted to scan stink tonight, I would be all for it, but we do not need to go around lynching people who are most likely not evil.

As for lynching aman, I don't know ow at the time where I stand on the one. He could have organised a bit of that whole mass grave, but that sounds every implausible to me. He could have only organised a bit of it, like lopen suggested, which is much more possible.

Ren on the other hand isn't the much more suspicious to me. Voting right off the bat for aman isn't something that screams of evil, I was even of the position that aman was evil at the begging, I just didn't vote right away, so I'm not suspicious enough of ren to vote for him(? I don't know ren's gender)

As for my role, elenion can vouch that I am indeed one of those nine, as well as lopen I guess, though not to the extent that elenion can. Silverblade could also vouch, but she's dead.

I can vouch for his role as well as that I have a strong village read on him.

[Elenion he/him]

I'm ready to release Ren due to the arguments I've heard, but not ready to put my vote on Aman.

[Emerald101 he/him]

1 minute ago, Elenion said:

I can vouch for his role as well as that I have a strong village read on him.

That's interesting considering he's claimed neutral.

[Elenion he/him]

Just now, Emerald101 said:

That's interesting considering he's claimed neutral.

Where did he claim neutral?

[Emerald101 he/him]

I assumed you were talking about stink. Was that not the case?

[Amanuensis he/him]

18 hours ago, Emerald101 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I did not lie about having been attacked. I have not to my knowledge spread misinformation. The only explanation I can conceive is either that there is a protection role which doesn't count as a "bodyguard equivalent" or that Joe made an error in the writeup. I have PM'd Joe about the situation and am currently awaiting his response.

 

18 hours ago, The Only Joe said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If a Player is saved by a protective role, their attack is not revealed in the writeup. However, the Jeskeri Practitioner is a exception to that. Normally, if an arrested player is attacked, it wouldn't be revealed, just like if a player is protected by a bodyguard. The JP's target will always appear in the writeup anonymously if others are killed.

So, in this case, you know for certain that the JP attacked whomever Magestar arrested.

 

Ah, okay. Sorry then, Emerald. I'll rescind my suspicion of you for lying.

 

18 hours ago, Elenion said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm with Rae here, @Renegade. I have a few suspicions about Aman, but Orlok has corroborated his story so far. If you can punch a hole in it and prove that @Amanuensis lied I'm more than happy to switch my votes.

A final note: a couple days ago (I could get the post if it proved important) I put a vote on Renegade due to Maill's info dump. @Kipper almost immediately tried to disprove the dump, and since I had no reason not to trust Kipper I retracted my vote. If Ren ends up being an elim, chances are Kipper is too.

 

Can you explain what your suspicions are of me? This sounds more like you couldn't care if the lynch goes either way, which is especially dangerous given we just lost 5 very important village roles and you're considering tipping the scales on another villager who Wilson herself wanted to stay safe.

That's an interesting point, and one that makes me feel more certain about Ren. In my notes, I have Kipper as very-likely non-Village. He's been doing a lot of harmful things this game for seemingly no reason (intentionally acting suspicious in PMs), as well as trolling Wilson to the point where she put a vote on him out of frustration. Ren, Sart and/or Bard being evil too could certainly explain why he was arguing so much against Mailliw's list. Now, I'm not saying the last is entirely accurate, or should be interpreted that way. For example, my role on there is wrong, and I never role claimed to Mailliw. But I really don't believe what Elodin was saying about conversions last night and Ren being put down as a conversion role in the Mailliw's list is a complete coincidence.

15 hours ago, Sart said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Emphasis mine.

I need a clarification on that. Does this line mean that people targeting Magestar were also affected by Jeskeri Practictioner? If so, that would make a lot more sense than the theory of Aman being targeted by everyone. Not sure what that means about his alignment, but it would make a lot more sense in my mind.

At this point, I think we need to lynch Stink. We started out with 28 players, so having 5 eliminators seems probable, especially if they only have a kill every third cycle. There's also the matter of the Serial Killer running about, who is either a 6th evil, or takes the place of one of the five. We're down to 17 players now. If there's 6 evil players, over a third of the town is against us. Even if there's only five, it's still close to a third. It's going to be ridiculously hard at this point to lynch a Jeskeri, since they're going to have at least 3 other players supporting them. We need as many town votes as possible, before the situation gets even worse. That's why I cannot allow Stink to live. He's supposedly a neutral role, which could easily swing the vote in the Jeskeri's favor. That would be a nightmare scenario. If he is actually town, then he is fishing for a kill, and is probably a Retired Pirate. It costs us an extra life, but it doesn't cost us a vote. If he's actually Jeskeri or the Serial Killer, we've managed to gain back an advantage. Whichever way I look at it, he's the safe choice. That's all from me for now. I don't have work for the next three days, so I should be more active now.

 

15 hours ago, Arraenae said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actually, we do lose a vote. Let's say Stink just wants to survive, or is village. We lynch him. The Serial Killer attacks that Night. Now we're down at least one more member. We're one person closer to death. You said it yourself -- we need as many town votes as possible, before the situation gets worse. If we lynch Stink when there's no real suspicion on him, we allow the SK and Jeskeri one more Night to kill people.

I find your post pretty suspicious. This sounds like something an eliminator might do to get us to waste a lynch, and maybe spare their own teammate. If you have evidence that Stink is neutral-evil or an eliminator, I'm all ears. I won't lynch Stink because Joe and his brother chose to give him a neutral role.

 

14 hours ago, Elenion said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

But the problem is is that @STINK could also vote like a villager, and so lynching him could lose us the vote that--as you point out--we'd need to kill a Jeskeri.

Besides, if you were STINK, who would you side with? He knows that if he votes as a block with the Jeskeri then we'll catch on and see him as vulnerable and expendable. The Jeskeri have no real motivation to attack STINK, so he's probably safer with us, unless we start advocating lynching him. I know: I did at one point agree that killing STINK would be logical, but a now-hard-cleared Elodin told me it was a chull idea, and now that every vote matters I'm inclined to agree with him.

 

Although I don't necessarily trust Stink, I don't believe lynching him right now is the answer. As you pointed out Sart, we just lost 5 villagers, 3 of which were protective roles, and still have no eliminators killed. Going for a Neutral right now will not help our cause. I agree with Rae's assessment of you right now. I'm getting the feeling that you're on Ren's side and this was an attempt to steer the lynch away from him. And I think Aonar just tried to pull the exact same thing.

 

2 hours ago, Aonar Faileas said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

@TheMightyLopen You already know what my feelings are on this lynch.  

But, for the benefit of the class, I'm not buying the idea of complete coincidence, here. As I'm reading it, either Aman is an Eliminator, there's a third party that knew multiple people would be targeting Aman that night (any suggestions, @Amanuensis?) or the Jeskeri have some means of ensuring that players target the Practitioner's victim. 

Even if Aman is innocent (as he could well be, in two of the above scenarios, although I would note that they are not mutually contradictory) I'm not feeling the Ren lynch. Although he hasn't been active enough for me to get a solid read on him, nothing he's done this cycle has stuck me as terribly Eliminatory. The main reason he's even up for the lynch is because Aman attacked his logic (which, while not perfect, was not unsound) in the thread.  

I'd rather vote for a player that I find honestly suspicious (like Rae, Burnt, Sart or Emerald) But at this point, with ~12 hours left in the cycle, and me going to be away from internet access for at least a day or so, I'm not going to place a vote for one of them with no idea what is going to happen with it, and no ability to change it should that become necessary.

 

Any suggestions? Everyone, for starters! 5 hours before turnover Magestar announced in thread that I was going to be protected when he was trying to convince Elodin to attack me. At this point not a single player didn't know I had players targeting me. How hard is it to understand that the eliminators saw an opportunity to get rid of a protector and an enemy faction's kill role in one fell swoop, and that two more players acted hastily, resulting them getting caught in the crossfire? How is a mass conspiracy or the Jeskeri having the ability to redirect players more likely than what literally anyone can figure out by reading the last day of the night turn?

I really do think Wilson was right about you, Aonar, and you're only convincing me more and more of Ren's guilt at this point.

 

8 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Y'know, I didn't really cover this angle before, but it could be that Aman is a Cultist but didn't plan for Wilson and Jaime to protect him and his buddies just targeted him as a WGG of sorts and so they could take out Magestar and Elodin and the fact that Wilson and Jaime targeted him was just lucky for them. Although someone may have brought this up before. I don't know, I'm really sleep right now, so I can't remember and don't want to go through all the posts again. Anyways, just a thought. I don't really feel comfortable with the Ren lynch, since everyone is basically accusing him for exactly what I said and thought and I know I'm village.

 

Sigh. Yes. It's possible. I have absolutely no proof that says I'm not a Cultist at this point in time. That being said, there is absolutely no proof that I am a Cultist. Seriously people. Elbereth, Wilson and even you, Lopen, have been saying over and over again that you believe I'm a Villager. It's because I am, and these votes on me just because I was attacked by a role that no one knew existed is absolutely ridiculous. All of these comments of me suddenly maybe being evil are playing directly into their plans. Why does no one see that? This is literally the exact same situation as LG22 at this point, where people were getting village reads on me the whole game, and when it came down to a lynch between village!me and someone who is obviously lying, I was chosen due to poor strategy and poor logic. Only problem is this time I do not have an extra life to keep me in the game. There is no safety net for this mistake this time. And after all of the casualties we just took, we really can't afford to make that mistake again.

 

1 hour ago, Emerald101 said:

 

 

 

 

 

I'm trying to make sense of the mess of actions that occurred. If Aman and Orlok are telling the truth about the PM (which may or may not be the case) I can find no reasonable scenario which would convince Wilson to protect Aman, except some kind of manipulation from Aman, or some kind of ability-redirection role the Jeskeri might have (like Aonar mentioned.). To me, that's the crux of the matter. Wilson is not a dumb player. She would not have protected Aman without what she felt was solid reasoning. Either WIlson was led to believe that Aman would need extra protection last night, she was forced to target Aman because of a secret role, or Aman and Orlok are lying about the contents of the PM (or even it's existence) and Wilson targeted Aman for reasons of her own without knowing for sure that Aman would be protected.

In the first scenario, Aman may or may not have done the manipulation, but given the circumstances of the alleged PM, is the most likely candidate. In scenario two, Aman is completely innocent. In scenario three, both Aman and Orlok are Jeskeri, and are pulling the wool over our eyes with this PM they've cooked up.

I refuse to believe that Wilson protected Aman without a logical reason unless she was forced to by a role. She may have been manipulated into it, but the reasoning behind her decision is our best chance of solving the riddle we've got here.

 

Let me get this straight. You're voting for me because "Wilson is not a dumb player." And then you go on to say that the reason for protecting me has to be that I manipulated her. Those two points directly contradict themselves. There is no feasible way I could have tricked Wilson into thinking I needed extra protection. I was Arrested. She knew I was Arrested. Everyone knew I was Arrested. Magestar, the Legionnaire, literally told the thread that I was safe. Wilson knew Magestar was the Legionnaire. Where is the disconnect here? As Ren pointed out, the Legionnaire role's rule text states any actions that target someone who is Arrested fail. There's no way I could have misled her into believing that it didn't. If I tried she would have looked herself. If you use the logic that Wilson was too smart to make a mistake, you can't ignore the logic that she was too smart to be tricked by me. What's frustrating for me especially is the fact that people are accusing me of things that are impossible for me to perform about a situation they know almost nothing about. And if you're so confident about how smart Wilson is, Emerald, why are you, and everyone for that matter, ignoring the last post she made?

 

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Personally, I've had a village read on Eol since he called out Sart like he did a few cycles ago.

In case I die (possible, but unlikely since I have protection right now), my reads:

Village: Aman, Eol, Emerald

Weak Villager reads: Elbereth, Burnt, Magestar, Jaime

Neutral/Neutral-Evil: Kipper, Alv, Stink, Elenion, Elodin

Eliminator: Aonar, Sart

The others are people I have no real read on or conflicting reads. I keep going back and forth for both Orlok and Lopen.

EDIT: forgot Elodin

 

Hmm, let's see. Yup. Aman's first on the list of players she is confident is village. And down there where she's confident that they're eliminators... Aonar and Sart, two players that have tried to divert the lynch away from Ren. 

Let me ask everyone a few questions real quick. If you were a Jeskeri Cultist, or perhaps even the Practitioner themselves, how do you think you'd be feeling right before turn over? Would you not be excited to see your very first kill finally occur? Especially when Magestar unknowingly spelled out for you the perfect target for a power none of the their enemies even knew existed... don't you think the anticipation would be almost overwhelming? And then when turn over does happen and you do see all of the damage you caused, would you want to just let the villagers decide the direction of the conversation? Or would you want to immediately plant the idea in people's heads that the villager you attacked is evil, so that the feeling they get about all of those players dying is immediately associated to them?

I think it's obvious at this point what I think, so I won't even bothering answering it.

The only new, valid explanation I've seen brought up is the possibility of the Jeskeri having a redirection. The main problem with that is that not a single player has claimed to have been redirected. Unless it only works every third night like their kill, why has there been no evidence of it so far? And once again, why are people voting for a player that can't possibly be responsible for that because he was Arrested, and letting a player who no one knows anything about walk away free? Seriously people.

My current theory right now is that Ren is a Cultist, and might even be the Practitioner himself. He was excited to see the fallout of their first attack, hence why he was one of the first players to post. Seeing all the damage they caused and having the preconceived idea of blaming the target of their attack for what happened, he posts nothing more than a vote on me accompanied with a bunch of illogical certainty's, hoping that the initial shock that comes with reading the write-up will turn to suspicion towards me. When it backfires with him receiving four votes, he immediately expresses frustration about people deciding he "just has to be an eliminator because nobody else would dare threaten such a trusted player." At this point I offer him a chance to argue why he's a villager by suggesting he prove himself as any of the known roles to someone, to which he completely ignores because he knows there's no way he can prove he isn't evil. Next, Sart, who was at the very bottom of Wilson's trust list, swoops in to try to get people to lynch Stink instead because he's claimed Neutral and somehow that's more dangerous than the Jeskeri. When that fails, Aonar comes in to revive the lynch on me and tries to make people think that it's way too convenient to be coincidental and even plants the idea of there being a redirection role, which is also unverifiable because no one has seen any evidence of one existing. I mean, just because it can't be proven doesn't meant it's impossible, right? Whatever it takes to get Ren out of the lynch.

 

TL;DR Wilson thought Aonar and Sart were evil (as seen in her very last post before dying). Both of those players have tried to wrestle the lynch away from Ren. Ren himself has given us no alibi to work with, and therefore very well could be the one responsible for killing all of those players, if his first post is any indicator. Conclusion: all three are evil and are desperately trying to get me, or anyone else, killed, probably because of how much trust I've had in this game so far.

Edited August 8, 2016 by Amanuensis

[Elenion he/him]

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Can you explain what your suspicions are of me? This sounds more like you couldn't care if the lynch goes either way, which is especially dangerous given we just lost 5 very important village roles and you're considering tipping the scales on another villager who Wilson herself wanted to stay safe.

Really, right now it's just gut; that's why I'm not voting with it. What you did was claim a master-PM that can only be vouched for by 1 other living player, something that could easily be arranged in a doc and rendered credible by the favorable gut-reads on you and some help by fellow elims. While chances of such a ruse are low, It's still possible.

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

That's an interesting point, and one that makes me feel more certain about Ren. In my notes, I have Kipper as very-likely non-Village. He's been doing a lot of harmful things this game for seemingly no reason (intentionally acting suspicious in PMs), as well as trolling Wilson to the point where she put a vote on him out of frustration. Ren, Sart and/or Bard being evil too could certainly explain why he was arguing so much against Mailliw's list. Now, I'm not saying the last is entirely accurate, or should be interpreted that way. For example, my role on there is wrong, and I never role claimed to Mailliw. But I really don't believe what Elodin was saying about conversions last night and Ren being put down as a conversion role in the Mailliw's list is a complete coincidence.

The list might have been very inaccurate, but a Jeskeri lynched by false suspicion counts as much as a Jeskeri lynched for outright lies. I think that may have been why Kipper responded so defensively.