Roshar vs Scadrial

[8bitBob]

6 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

Either way, they still don't know how to compound yet.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure there's a WoB floating around that says they weren't taught to compound, though some may have figured it out. Or something. It would still be very useful for taking out dangerous targets like Kaladin, which was more my original point.

7 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

I'll look at the scene again, b/c Jasnah's wording could make all the difference.

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Shallan took out her sketchpad and searched through for a specific picture. It was the image she’d drawn of the strange place with the sea of beads, the floating flames, the distant sun in a black, black sky. Shallan regarded it for a moment. Then she turned it and held it up for Jasnah.

The look of utter shock Jasnah displayed was nearly worth the night spent feeling sick and guilty. Jasnah’s eyes bulged and she sputtered for a moment, trying to find words. Shallan blinked, taking a Memory of that. She couldn’t help herself.

“Where did you find that?” Jasnah demanded. “What book described that scene to you?”

I am not exaggerating when I say that this is probably more emotion than Jasnah shows in the rest of the book combined, including when she killed a bunch of dudes. This comes as a complete shock to her. If literally hundreds of ardents have used these devices over the years and all saw the Shadesmaer, I cannot imagine Jasnah being so surprised that Shallan has seen it, especially if she just spent an entire book hanging out with an ardent who theoretically could have told her. Nor can I imagine Jasnah not immediately determining how Soulcaster fabrials work after she started doing it on her own. I'd sooner expect Shallan not to draw than Jasnah not seek answers.

I admit it is possible that Kabsal is still wrong or lying, but the pieces simply fit better if fabrials do not work the same.

20 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

Also, fairly sure there was WoB a long while back about either the Ardents or Roshar as a whole being more Realmatically aware than other worlds. So there is a modern understanding 

I'm sure there's at least some people who are varying degrees of aware, but it is not presented as common knowledge, and ardents are fairly common.

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

Scadrial wins by introducing viruses to Roshar. The resultant Pandemic utterly wipes out Rosharan society. Oops. 

We already know they have no defense to the cold. We don't know if that cold is a rhinovirus (debilitating if you have no defense) or the Enterovirus which can cause fun things like polio. And if Scadrial attacks en mass then they will be bringing along influenza, streptococci, and viral pneumonia. And since Wayne still has a cold after he heals we can guess that Stormlight can't actually remove the virus, just heal the symptoms temporarily. And those are just the first few viruses I thought of...

[Rich2244]

3 hours ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Scadrial wins by introducing viruses to Roshar. The resultant Pandemic utterly wipes out Rosharan society. Oops. 

We already know they have no defense to the cold. We don't know if that cold is a rhinovirus (debilitating if you have no defense) or the Enterovirus which can cause fun things like polio. And if Scadrial attacks en mass then they will be bringing along influenza, streptococci, and viral pneumonia. And since Wayne still has a cold after he heals we can guess that Stormlight can't actually remove the virus, just heal the symptoms temporarily. And those are just the first few viruses I thought of...

Which is all 100% guesswork, we have no way of knowing how diseases from Scadrial would effect people on Roshar or vice versa, and how does Wayne healing using gold feruchemy show how stormlight healing would work?

[The One Who Connects he/him]

3 hours ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Scadrial wins by introducing viruses to Roshar. The resultant Pandemic utterly wipes out Rosharan society. Oops. 

Rosharans are very healthy, but they are not immune to everything.

Skaa are very hardy, but they are not immune to everything. The Nobles didn't even get that hardyness to begin with.

QED: they both lose. End of that discussion.

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

We know how colds effect Roshar- they caused a plague. Gold healing and Stormlight healing use the same mechanism so you can extrapolate the effects of one from the other. So gold doesn't heal colds; Rosharans have no defenses against colds.

The most likely reason is that colds are viruses, and I haven't noticed viral illnesses on Roshar. Rosharan medicine seems to focus on bacterial illnesses. This makes sense because most viruses begin in animals and jump to humans. The fauna on Roshar is so unusual that this jump becomes very unlikely. As opposed to Scadrial which is very Earthlike.

It is true we don't know what Rosharan diseases would do to Scadrians. But we do know the reverse. If the cold can cause a plague, what would influenza do? And if that cold is the Scadrian enterovirus then will we be seeing Rosharan polio?

[Jondesu he/him]

3 hours ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

We know how colds effect Roshar- they caused a plague. 

This has been consistently misinterpreted. Brandon has said "it's a plague of the sniffles". In other words, they're calling it a plague because a large number of people are getting sick, which never happens, not because people are dying.

[cometaryorbit]

On 4/2/2017 at 1:04 AM, asterion137 said:

spears won't kill koloss easily.

I'd say harder than an unarmored human, but easier than an armored human. Remember, Elend (pre-Allomancy) kills one with a knife. They aren't that resilient.

On 4/2/2017 at 1:04 AM, asterion137 said:

A big koloss can reach around that far with a 6 foot sword.

Sure, but the really big koloss are less numerous given their high attrition rate due to internal violence.

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Killing a koloss with a spear also leaves the spear tangled in skin which creates a break in the phalanx. 

I don't know - is koloss skin tough enough to trap a spearhead so you can't just pull it right back out? I don't think it's like leather armor or anything...

 

On 4/2/2017 at 2:16 AM, KalaDellexe said:

"Newly created Koloss..." Well, that's kinda wrong. They still have the natural armor that larger Koloss have, since they literally use the same skin. The effect is even heightened because of the slick and tangling folds the overlarge skin will have. They also still have greatly enhanced strength, seeing as how they use the same weaponry. 

I don't think koloss skin is functional as armor. Koloss are somewhat harder to kill than humans due to dense musculature meaning you have to get through more to get to the vitals, and in berserker rage they can likely keep fighting after getting wounds that would incapacitate a human with pain.

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Elend picked a small one because he thought he had no chance against an older one. He also surprised it, it wasn't enraged or ready for battle. If I remember right, it also still fought back, not enraged and mortally wounded.

 

Well, sure, but it did fight back, so it had time to react - it wasn't a matter of stabbing a totally unaware opponent. And while Elend had had fighting training, he wasn't an experienced warrior.

 

--

 

It also just occurred to me that the Alethi are used to fighting non-human opponents - the Parshendi - and Warform Parshendi are much stronger than humans  - they use 'head-size stones' in slings to crack Shardplate. They might not be as strong as Koloss, but they're better armored.

[Blackhoof]

23 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

I'd say harder than an unarmored human, but easier than an armored human. Remember, Elend (pre-Allomancy) kills one with a knife. They aren't that resilient.

Only because he surprised it and stabbed it in the neck several times. Chances are, in a battle you won't get that chance. 

And if we assume that most Koloss are mid-sized (like a bell curve of ages that you get with humans) then it doesn't matter, because the mid-sized ones (6-8ft tall) are more resilient and stronger than the little ones. 

 

23 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

Sure, but the really big koloss are less numerous given their high attrition rate due to internal violence.

I don't know - is koloss skin tough enough to trap a spearhead so you can't just pull it right back out? I don't think it's like leather armor or anything...

I think I c]recall that being listed as a danger when fighting them.

 

23 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

I don't think koloss skin is functional as armor. Koloss are somewhat harder to kill than humans due to dense musculature meaning you have to get through more to get to the vitals, and in berserker rage they can likely keep fighting after getting wounds that would incapacitate a human with pain.

Well, sure, but it did fight back, so it had time to react - it wasn't a matter of stabbing a totally unaware opponent. And while Elend had had fighting training, he wasn't an experienced warrior.

Fair points, but these factors still mean that one koloss is far harder to kill than a human, even an armoured one.

 

23 hours ago, cometaryorbit said:

 

It also just occurred to me that the Alethi are used to fighting non-human opponents - the Parshendi - and Warform Parshendi are much stronger than humans  - they use 'head-size stones' in slings to crack Shardplate. They might not be as strong as Koloss, but they're better armored.

 

True, but Koloss are way stronger, and far more dangerous than Parshendi, individually. It seems from the books that the Alethi can kill Parshendi on a 1-for-1 basis, indicating that once you get used to fighting them they aren't more dangerous than regular human soldiers. But Koloss regularly kill 3 or 4 times their own number. Even if the Alethi develop tactics to counter the Koloss, I can easily see them making this war a definite victory for Scadrial. Picture Alethi battle lines facing a horde of charging Koloss. They would be scattered completely by the charge and lose all cohesion, not to mention the morale effects of fighting such enemies. The Alethi can field 100k troops, it seems, on a permanent basis, maybe 150k. There are at least that many Koloss in the Final Empire as a whole, able to kill 3-4x their own number. Then you count the armies of human levies that the Lord Ruler can call up- I think it was stated that he can put up at least a million men, even more.

I can only see Roshar losing this war- Koloss are just too powerful as soldiers, and when you factor in Mistborn assassins, Kandra spies and the benefits of Mistings on the battlefield? Roshar is doomed. 

[The One Who Connects he/him]

@Blackhoof

I believe Cometary's point was that they could be killed by a normal person wielding a knife. That sounds a bit less protective than armor should allow. (And if he had a glass knife for whatever reason(I don't remember) then it's even better)

Elend's words were "make sure it doesn't get caught in their loose skin," which is different than getting stuck while removing the spearhead. This was also brought up for fighting a smaller one, as they are the ones with loose skin.

You should read the argument a few pages ago on the total Koloss count in TFE. I still lean towards 50,000. Anything higher seems like overkill, especially given how he doesn't seem to use them that often anymore.

As for the "millions" line, the armies are made up of primarily Skaa. He could forcibly conscript any number of Skaa should he choose to, but even ignoring the fact that he probably hasn't had to do this before, he doesn't just carry around a few million suits of armor/swords/etc... in a vault somewhere. And Skaa rebellions fail because they don't know how to fight.

 

[Blackhoof]

On 11/04/2017 at 6:38 AM, The One Who Connects said:

@Blackhoof

I believe Cometary's point was that they could be killed by a normal person wielding a knife. That sounds a bit less protective than armor should allow. (And if he had a glass knife for whatever reason(I don't remember) then it's even better)

Well leather armour I can certainly imagine could be pierced in weaker places by a direct knife thrust. Still, I agree- Koloss skin is not as tough as any sort of armour. Harder than human for sure, but not as tough as armour.

@The One Who Connects

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Elend's words were "make sure it doesn't get caught in their loose skin," which is different than getting stuck while removing the spearhead. This was also brought up for fighting a smaller one, as they are the ones with loose skin.

Possibly, but I still think that it would be a danger when fighting the small ones even with a spear. 

 

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You should read the argument a few pages ago on the total Koloss count in TFE. I still lean towards 50,000. Anything higher seems like overkill, especially given how he doesn't seem to use them that often anymore.

I disagree on that count- not for the entire Final Empire. Ruin gathered 300'000 Koloss for the final battle, but he didn't have much notice- so there could have been twice that or more scattered across the Empire. Could Ruin have realistically turned 50'000 Koloss into 600'000? or 900'000? That seems unlikely. So I think there were more liekly closer to 100'000 Koloss across the Empire.

Even so- 50'000 Koloss can kill (theoretically) 150'000-200'000 human soldiers. That is the entire Alethi military. Without considering his human armies, the Lord Ruler can defeat almost the entirety of a quarter of Roshar's military capability. And in real life, things would play out a bit differently than so cleanly- because people flee, Koloss don't. 

 

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As for the "millions" line, the armies are made up of primarily Skaa. He could forcibly conscript any number of Skaa should he choose to, but even ignoring the fact that he probably hasn't had to do this before, he doesn't just carry around a few million suits of armor/swords/etc... in a vault somewhere. And Skaa rebellions fail because they don't know how to fight.

True, but there are plenty of professional soldiers in his armies- think of the Luthadel garrison. Presumably every city has garrisons like that, and he must have another set of soldiers for when he hunts down rebels- think of the army Clubs fought for, he was a professional and veteran soldier, not some gangly village conscript. So while the bulk of his troops would probably be untrained conscripts (just like any medieval army- like Alethkar, the Vedens or the other Rosharan kingdoms) he has a good, strong core of professional, well-trained soldiers.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2017 by Blackhoof

[The One Who Connects he/him]

@Blackhoof and a few others.

Ok, so Elend killed that Koloss with an Obsidian knife to the eye. This means that we don't have any definitive account of how easily a non-pewter user fared against Koloss skin. We do know that they can die from a blow to the eye(likely the brain behind it) so that's something to aim for.

Additionally, there is an element of the Battle of Luthadel that has been slightly overlooked. The defenders threw/dropped rocks onto the Koloss. Surviving Koloss threw them back with greater force and accuracy, killing many. If they hadn't done that, there would've been more soldiers alive(hardly enough to win, but it's not something Koloss are usually armed with)

As for what 50,000 Koloss could do, are there any assumptions about how large Cett and Straff's armies were in WoA? Clubs thinks that Jastes' 20K could take either army, while Ham and Breeze both think that Jastes would have trouble taking on both of them if they united against the Koloss. I imagine the Koloss would still end up on top, but it wouldn't be an easy victory. Just a thing to consider going forward.

"Didn't have much notice" Isn't there a year between his release in WoA and the final battle in HoA? On a separate note to that, they were always under his control. He basically lent them to Elend, Vin and his Inquisitors. No notice was needed, as he was aware of all of them at any given time since his release.

Fair enough about the Garrisons. They are better trained than the average Skaa, but I believe that as the capitol city, Luthadel had the largest garrison at 20,000. Limits the size of the trained core, but it's a good start.

I also have Breeze's accounts on Soothing large groups: he states that 1,000 men is too many for a single soother. He himself can only manage a few hundred at once if they are "packed closely together and he was only focusing on simple emotions." He had to go through his 1,000 men in sets, and the fear of impending Koloss was coming back to the first sets when he was finishing up the last ones. Soothers will make a difference, but they can't turn the tide of an entire army by themselves.

Lastly for now, a question. House Venture had about.. 2 dozen Hazekillers in TFE. I used that low number to assume they were a more recent occupation. However in WoA, Cett has nearly 50. Cett had hardly any Allomancers or Influence before TLR died. Anyone have opinions of this?

We also saw them using Obsidian Swords in that scene, so perhaps Hazekillers are the better choice to give a captured Shardblade to, as they have used a sword before.

[Blackhoof]

21 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

@Blackhoof and a few others.

Ok, so Elend killed that Koloss with an Obsidian knife to the eye. This means that we don't have any definitive account of how easily a non-pewter user fared against Koloss skin. We do know that they can die from a blow to the eye(likely the brain behind it) so that's something to aim for.

Ah, thanks for that, I appreciate that you took the time to check when I did not.

 

21 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

Additionally, there is an element of the Battle of Luthadel that has been slightly overlooked. The defenders threw/dropped rocks onto the Koloss. Surviving Koloss threw them back with greater force and accuracy, killing many. If they hadn't done that, there would've been more soldiers alive(hardly enough to win, but it's not something Koloss are usually armed with)

Indeed, not enough to make much difference. Besides, who is to say the Alethi or other races (such as Parshendi rock-flingers) won't try the same tactic themselves?

 

21 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

As for what 50,000 Koloss could do, are there any assumptions about how large Cett and Straff's armies were in WoA? Clubs thinks that Jastes' 20K could take either army, while Ham and Breeze both think that Jastes would have trouble taking on both of them if they united against the Koloss. I imagine the Koloss would still end up on top, but it wouldn't be an easy victory. Just a thing to consider going forward.

Well we have it pretty canonically that Koloss can kill 3-4x their own number. Cett was travelling with a force of 500 alongside his army, and they went berserk and he lost 2000. So even when outnumbered, with no planning, no support, no backup, no direction, no mistings helping out, against an army which ALSO had no mistings, the Koloss killed 4x their own losses. That is phenomenal. With proper support I imagine they can increase those numbers considerably. 

Although I'm not sure how big the armies were. 

 

21 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

"Didn't have much notice" Isn't there a year between his release in WoA and the final battle in HoA? On a separate note to that, they were always under his control. He basically lent them to Elend, Vin and his Inquisitors. No notice was needed, as he was aware of all of them at any given time since his release.

I mean that Ruin didn't have much time to get those Koloss to the final battle, from my understanding. He only just discovered the atium cache and then directed everything he had towards it. Surely not every Koloss in the FE got to the atium cache in a matter of days, or less.

 

21 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

Fair enough about the Garrisons. They are better trained than the average Skaa, but I believe that as the capitol city, Luthadel had the largest garrison at 20,000. Limits the size of the trained core, but it's a good start.

I also have Breeze's accounts on Soothing large groups: he states that 1,000 men is too many for a single soother. He himself can only manage a few hundred at once if they are "packed closely together and he was only focusing on simple emotions." He had to go through his 1,000 men in sets, and the fear of impending Koloss was coming back to the first sets when he was finishing up the last ones. Soothers will make a difference, but they can't turn the tide of an entire army by themselves.

Very true, but that is just one soother- we know that nobles can muster hundreds of mistings in their armies. In full war, you could have one misting for every 50 troops (of yours), easily. And enough of those will be Soothers/Rioters that they can influence your own troops and the enemies troops juuuust enough to turn the tide of battle. Morale is a fickle thing- just a little push one way or the other can keep you going. Combine that with the spectacle and horror of fighting Koloss? I can see whole armies fleeing before the forces of the Lord Ruler.

 

21 minutes ago, The One Who Connects said:

Lastly for now, a question. House Venture had about.. 2 dozen Hazekillers in TFE. I used that low number to assume they were a more recent occupation. However in WoA, Cett has nearly 50. Cett had hardly any Allomancers or Influence before TLR died. Anyone have opinions of this?

We also saw them using Obsidian Swords in that scene, so perhaps Hazekillers are the better choice to give a captured Shardblade to, as they have used a sword before.

My take was that Hazekillers, as specialised soldiers trained to fight allomancers, existed since basically allomancers started to be used as assassins and weapons. Venture had few hazekillers because they also had plenty of mistborn and mistings to defend their holdings. Cett had so many for the opposite reason- he needed to compensate. I also think Cett had even more- Vin alone killed 50 hazekillers when she duralumin-pushed them out the windows i thought.

[The One Who Connects he/him]

@Blackhoof (mobile quoting is bad, so I do this)

Hazekillers shouldn't have any metal to get duralumin pushed. It's their whole MO. Additionally, Vin assumes that "there looked to be about fifty," when she and Zane break into Cett's tower. I trust the 50 number as the total amount because it was given before the fight started.

Fair point on the Misting/Hazekiller inverse relation. I assumed that specialized troops would cost a real shiny coin, so I equated their appearance with influence rather than purpose.

I don't think they could get that many Mistings, but until either of us have solid proof, it's just an argument of semantics at this point. I brought up how Breeze had to work in waves and his "packed close enough together" statement for a reason. Combining a range limit with a max-target limit could prevent lines from breaking as easily as we think. The front rows of troops will get affected first, because they are the first to get in range. But where can they run that isn't forward? The lines behind them keep moving forward b/c they haven't been soothed into fear yet, so the front lines have no choice but to keep marching anyway. The formation will be more fragile once the lines do start to break, but until then your soothing might not do too much good if the formation is a deep one.

Oh.. I see what you meant now. He probably had his armies moving inwards already, as the outer dominances had probably been picked clean by then. It doesn't limit how far they had to walk by that much, but when you need an all out charge, it makes a difference.

Well, there is the fact that Cett's forces weren't exactly expecting to fight their own Koloss. Sure they were wary of them, but the Koloss had a slight advantage via a pseudo-surprise attack. It's even more in the Koloss' favor if they were marching at the time, making the human forces worn out and in disarray, carrying supplies and whatever else. A days march would probably account for 1/4 of the casualties, but we don't know enough details to accurately hypothesize that.

I don't think the Alethi would go the way of throwing rocks (if they have catapults, then I rescind this statement). The Parshendi would, but that depends on if we are allowing them to be part of the Rosharan Coalition.

[Blackhoof]

15 hours ago, The One Who Connects said:

@Blackhoof (mobile quoting is bad, so I do this)

Hazekillers shouldn't have any metal to get duralumin pushed. It's their whole MO. Additionally, Vin assumes that "there looked to be about fifty," when she and Zane break into Cett's tower. I trust the 50 number as the total amount because it was given before the fight started.

 

She used pieces of window i think, not too sure, but she definitely wiped out about 50 after a long period of fighting even more. That 50 number was ONE group, and she fought through several rooms full of hazekillers, with Zane killing even more.

 

15 hours ago, The One Who Connects said:

Fair point on the Misting/Hazekiller inverse relation. I assumed that specialized troops would cost a real shiny coin, so I equated their appearance with influence rather than purpose.

We must also consider the contexts of those battles- when Kel attacked Keep Venture, it was one of the first keeps he infiltrated I think. So those dozen HKs were the standard guard, permanently on-duty, without all keeps being on high alert for mistborn attacks. Cett had scores because he needed the defence and because he was only in the city for a short time, in the middle of a war. 

 

15 hours ago, The One Who Connects said:

I don't think they could get that many Mistings, but until either of us have solid proof, it's just an argument of semantics at this point. I brought up how Breeze had to work in waves and his "packed close enough together" statement for a reason. Combining a range limit with a max-target limit could prevent lines from breaking as easily as we think. The front rows of troops will get affected first, because they are the first to get in range. But where can they run that isn't forward? The lines behind them keep moving forward b/c they haven't been soothed into fear yet, so the front lines have no choice but to keep marching anyway. The formation will be more fragile once the lines do start to break, but until then your soothing might not do too much good if the formation is a deep one.

That is fair, but remember that mistings are 16% of the population, and all noble mistings are Snapped as children. Sure there aren't so many nobles, but we see enough mistings used in combat that it can make quite a difference. We don't have hard numbers that I know of, but even 1 in 1000 soothers/rioters can make a difference on the battlefield.

And that isn't including what coinshots can do- another poster already expounded a few pages back on how useful, mobile, and powerful coinshots are when unable to be countered by other mistings. Arrows would nearly useless against Scadrial armies with coinshots and lurchers on their side. Brutal sprays of coins can decimate dozens of enemies at once. They are like mobile, fast cannons armed with scattershot. There isn't much defence if you don't have allomancers.

 

15 hours ago, The One Who Connects said:

Well, there is the fact that Cett's forces weren't exactly expecting to fight their own Koloss. Sure they were wary of them, but the Koloss had a slight advantage via a pseudo-surprise attack. It's even more in the Koloss' favor if they were marching at the time, making the human forces worn out and in disarray, carrying supplies and whatever else. A days march would probably account for 1/4 of the casualties, but we don't know enough details to accurately hypothesize that.

that is true, but  at the same time within the novel itself the characters (Clubs, as a seasoned veteran familiar with koloss) didn't dispute those numbers. He didn't say anything like you are, he simply agreed that Koloss are that destructive.

 

15 hours ago, The One Who Connects said:

I don't think the Alethi would go the way of throwing rocks (if they have catapults, then I rescind this statement). The Parshendi would, but that depends on if we are allowing them to be part of the Rosharan Coalition.

 

Yeah, Parshendi are involved- I think this scenario involved all-out war between all of Roshar and all of Scadrial (mortal, non-god beings, at least).

 

[The One Who Connects he/him]

@Blackhoof

I had somehow assumed it was some reasonable Coalition vs the Final Empire.

I feel like Clubs' perfect win record with Koloss has some small bias in his opinion on what seems like a reasonable K/D for Koloss, but he is the most authoritative source we have.

Never really found(or at least never seen) a decent explanation of whether it was 16% naturally or mist-snapped. Skaa are by far the largest portion of the population, and per (Kelsier?) they can't even be Mistings if they don't have Noble blood in the last 5 generations. 16% with that kind of negative skew seems too high in my opinion.

Fair enough on situational timeframe, but I don't think it's his very first keep raid. He may have only hit minor nobles in the plantations/other cities, so the standard guard sounds good.

---

Ok, so I reread the scene again. The first group of Hazekillers she and Zane fight is the "looked to be perhaps fifty" group. They take out a total of 50 together at that time. Zane then goes to the second floor and does unknown stuff. Vin heads straight up to the third floor and is attacked by "dozens more coming out of a secret stairwell" There was a fifty to one mention, so we'll call it 4 dozen.

The fourth floor is bypassed with a casual mention of Zane jumping out the window and that making it "clear." The Fifth floor is where they find Cett, after Vin fight "soldiers" not Hazekillers. She thinks they were probably trained against Allomancers, but they are noted differently than the HK's were.

Floor 1: 50 HK \\ Floor 3: 48 HK

Floor's 2 and 4 are cleared by Zane in the time it takes for Vin to clear Floor 3 via Two Duralumin moves, so I imagine if Zane faced any HK's, there were much less. Floor 5 didn't have any at all. So anywhere from 100-120 HK's in total.

[Blackhoof]

12 hours ago, The One Who Connects said:

@Blackhoof

I had somehow assumed it was some reasonable Coalition vs the Final Empire.

I feel like Clubs' perfect win record with Koloss has some small bias in his opinion on what seems like a reasonable K/D for Koloss, but he is the most authoritative source we have.

that's true.

Even if we lower it to a 2-1 kill/death ratio for Koloss, that is pretty darn impressive. And that is in a situation where the enemy army doesn't break and flee (so the koloss fight to the death but the enemy survive). Which is what happened with Cett's army. Imagine the amount of kills koloss can achieve if the enemy army routs? Historically most casualties came from people being run down when they flee. I imagine that most human armies facing Koloss would break and flee at some point, and then the Koloss (being faster) can run them down and greatly increase their casualty count. 

 

Lets just imagine the first battle between Roshar and the FE- a large Alethi army with Parshendi auxillaries fights an army of Skaa veterans and conscripts, supported by a sizeable force of Koloss and some mistings. Say 10'000 on each side, with 2000 Koloss.

First up would be the armies approaching- arrows would be traded. The arrows of the Imperial forces strike true, inflicting light casualties amongst the Alethi. The Alethi and parshendi arrows barely reach their targets- mysterious forces knock them about, out of the sky or off target completely. The armies come close- the Alethi grow nervous at the sight of hulking blue monsters in front of their human opponents, and the FE levies look bewildered by the tight formations of the Alethi and the marbled skin of the Parshendi.

The Koloss, in a frenzy by now, charge. The Alethi are terrified, but they hold, while the Parshendi sing, without fear of death. Arrows are useless, and the Alethi brace as the blue monsters come closer, sprinting in rage. The Koloss crash into the Alethi like a thousand raging bulls. 

The strength of the Koloss allows them to crash straight through the Alethi shieldwall, like the Parshendi were able to jump over it during the war on the Shattered Plains. Their brutal swords, more like metal clubs, cleave through human flesh like nothing, breaking shields and shattering spears. The Alethi fight back, using their spears to give them reach and impale individual Koloss through the neck and face. But the Koloss had reach too- their long arms and longer swords could reach past any spear or batter it aside, and the Alethi buckled.

Suddenly, hope- the Parshendi warpairs descend, filling in the gaps between the broken Alethi formations and taking the fight to the Koloss. Warforms possessed strength and speed that humans didn't, and when working together with their axes and hammers they smashed and cut the Koloss in their path. The Koloss falter before these strange creatures that are bigger on the inside than they seem, the challenge scaring them and calming their anger. But the rage of the beast cannot so easily be undone. Parshendi fell to brutal swings like any mortal would, and the Koloss felt their rage growing once more. Despite being grossly outnumbered, the Koloss charged forward, beating down human and Parshendi alike. The Alethi buckled, their lines being torn apart, but their superior numbers soon began to tell. In the face of monsters and horrendous casualties, the Alethi and the Parshendi began to win. The Koloss never knew it, but one by one the monsters fell, fighting to the death in their rage.

Finally it was over- the last Koloss slain. The Alethi and the Parshendi had been mauled badly- a mere 2000 Koloss inflicting over twice their number in casualties. The Alethi and the Parshendi rejoiced- but the battle was not over. The full human forces of their enemy, rested and fresh, began to move forward. 5000 tired, battered Rosharans were faced with 8000 enemies, and they felt their hope die.

As the Final Empire's army got closer, individual allomancers leapt forward- coinshots, spraying handfuls of coins at the tattered Alethi ranks. Any groups of Alethi that reformed their tight battle formations found themselves assailed with coins from the mistings, and any arrows sent back were easily deflected. Some warriors, angered and enraged, charged towards the misting skirmishers, but they were too fast, easily steelpushing away from any attack.

Then the levies of the Final Empire, organised around a core of professional warriors and supported by pewterarms, coinshots and emotional allomancers,  clashed with the tired and disorganised Alethi and Parshendi. The Rosharans continued to fight for as long as they could- individually they were more skilled, more experienced, and better-trained than the troops of the Final Empire, but their formations were unformed and broken, and their morale was perilously low. It didn't take long for the Rosharan army to begin buckling, and finally to break and flee completely. The Skaa pushed forward, and inflicted grievous casualties on their enemies. Even though many escaped, many more were captured or left dead on the field. The battle was lost- and victory was granted to the Final Empire.

 

Personally, I think this is even a little generous to the Alethi- I think most human armies would break if fighting Koloss.

But it demonstrates that the Final Empire can win a fair fight with the Rosharans- and I think that even if there are only 50'000 Koloss (personally, I think there are at least double that) even a small amount can turn the tide of a battle to favour Scadrial. The war, I think, goes to Scadrial.

What are your thoughts on my battle hypothetical scenario?

 

12 hours ago, The One Who Connects said:

Never really found(or at least never seen) a decent explanation of whether it was 16% naturally or mist-snapped. Skaa are by far the largest portion of the population, and per (Kelsier?) they can't even be Mistings if they don't have Noble blood in the last 5 generations. 16% with that kind of negative skew seems too high in my opinion.

Fair enough on situational timeframe, but I don't think it's his very first keep raid. He may have only hit minor nobles in the plantations/other cities, so the standard guard sounds good.

Fair point- it certainly seems high. I do believe that it is 16% normally (so noble-blooded), and if you consider the amount of mistborn we see in the series (which are stated as being one in 10'000 aren't they?) there must be at least 20'000-50'000 noble mistings. Although this seems very high. Maybe the proportion of mistborn are higher in pure noble bloodlines.

 

12 hours ago, The One Who Connects said:

 

Ok, so I reread the scene again. The first group of Hazekillers she and Zane fight is the "looked to be perhaps fifty" group. They take out a total of 50 together at that time. Zane then goes to the second floor and does unknown stuff. Vin heads straight up to the third floor and is attacked by "dozens more coming out of a secret stairwell" There was a fifty to one mention, so we'll call it 4 dozen.

The fourth floor is bypassed with a casual mention of Zane jumping out the window and that making it "clear." The Fifth floor is where they find Cett, after Vin fight "soldiers" not Hazekillers. She thinks they were probably trained against Allomancers, but they are noted differently than the HK's were.

Floor 1: 50 HK \\ Floor 3: 48 HK

Floor's 2 and 4 are cleared by Zane in the time it takes for Vin to clear Floor 3 via Two Duralumin moves, so I imagine if Zane faced any HK's, there were much less. Floor 5 didn't have any at all. So anywhere from 100-120 HK's in total.

ah cool, thanks for that- so we can assume quite a few Hazekillers then. Obviously Hazekillers are common enough that you CAN, if desperate, hire hundreds of them, or train hundreds.

 

[Rich2244]

Your hypothetical situation sounds very accurate and plausible to me, but you are including mistings and not shardbearers, to me a shardbearer is 3-4 times further above a Koloss than a Koloss is above a normal human, mainly just because their weapons aren't hindered by anything they just cut through, shardbearers would demolish Koloss just as easily as anyone else, the only difference is Koloss would actually be a threat if they got any hits in. Supported by alethi infantry shardbearers would cut down Koloss by the dozens.

Also I'm not sure if it has been linked to or not yet but there is a WoB in one of the annotations that Ruins army at the end was 200,000 Koloss 

Edited April 15, 2017 by Rich2244

[Blackhoof]

20 hours ago, Rich2244 said:

Your hypothetical situation sounds very accurate and plausible to me, but you are including mistings and not shardbearers, to me a shardbearer is 3-4 times further above a Koloss than a Koloss is above a normal human, mainly just because their weapons aren't hindered by anything they just cut through, shardbearers would demolish Koloss just as easily as anyone else, the only difference is Koloss would actually be a threat if they got any hits in. Supported by alethi infantry shardbearers would cut down Koloss by the dozens.

Also I'm not sure if it has been linked to or not yet but there is a WoB in one of the annotations that Ruins army at the end was 200,000 Koloss 

 

ah of course! I forgot shardbearers, my bad. A foolish oversight of mine.

However, I don't think it makes much difference- at most an army of 10'000 Alethi would have 1 or 2 Shardbearers. Not enough to make a serious difference, although they would help morale. Earlier in this thread it was discussed how well a shardbearer would fare against koloss, and I agree with the general arguments that koloss would kill them with not too many losses in return. Koloss strength and reach means that they are essentially the equivalent of those Parshendi hammermen (a threat in numbers and if they get in a lucky hit before dying) but capable of striking from further away- meaning that more hits would be lain on the bearer. Sure dozens of Koloss would fall to this one shardbearer, especially if supported by allies, but if they try to wade in without backup (standard procedure) they will quickly find themselves buffeted by multiple massive hits at once, each able to crack their plate slightly. Sure they can swing around and kill five attacking Koloss, but then another five leap forward and hit them again. It won't take long for the shardbearer to be bashed into pieces.

 

[The One Who Connects he/him]

@Blackhoof I might have to reread every Vin/Elend vs Koloss scene in HoA for this, but the details will be important. 

I feel like despite the fact that there are at least a few thousand Koloss in each battle, our main protagonists only seemed to be dodging 1-2 swings at a time, and only 2-3 consecutive swings.

This should give us a definitive number for "how many Koloss can realistically clump around a single foe." Which is what we really need because it puts things into perspective again.

The other thing you don't seem to be taking into account in your "5 die, 5 more jump straight in" thing is bodies. Koloss bodies will hinder both party's movements, but if a vastly outnumbered Shardbearer lets the enemy come to him (Dalinar & Adolin on the Tower) then his odds of survival greatly increase. As shown with the aforementioned Kholin's, they still nearly fell, but Koloss don't swarm as tightly as Parahendi so there is a small amount more breathing room.

On the tangent of corpses, this might've just been Sazed's musing, but when the first few Koloss scaled the wall, he felt that there were enough bodies down below. I'd have to look at the exact words, but it felt like he was implying they used a pile of bodies as a hill next to the wall. I only bring this up because it puts manmade fortifications in a slightly more positive light if Koloss couldn't free-climb the Wall of Luthadel.

[Blackhoof]

17 hours ago, The One Who Connects said:

@Blackhoof I might have to reread every Vin/Elend vs Koloss scene in HoA for this, but the details will be important. 

I feel like despite the fact that there are at least a few thousand Koloss in each battle, our main protagonists only seemed to be dodging 1-2 swings at a time, and only 2-3 consecutive swings.

This should give us a definitive number for "how many Koloss can realistically clump around a single foe." Which is what we really need because it puts things into perspective again.

The other thing you don't seem to be taking into account in your "5 die, 5 more jump straight in" thing is bodies. Koloss bodies will hinder both party's movements, but if a vastly outnumbered Shardbearer lets the enemy come to him (Dalinar & Adolin on the Tower) then his odds of survival greatly increase. As shown with the aforementioned Kholin's, they still nearly fell, but Koloss don't swarm as tightly as Parahendi so there is a small amount more breathing room.

 

Kudos for doing the research- some interesting observations.

That definitely increases my estimate for the survivorability of Shardbearers when facing Koloss, but even with only 1-3 swings happening at once or in quick succession, the Shardbearer will still be taking most of those hits on his plate. Koloss are 2-4 times as strong as a normal human (they have the stolen strength of 4 people, after all) so a single good hit should be able to at least slightly crack or damage a piece of Plate. With even hundreds of Koloss facing them, the Plate won't last too long before the bearer is smashed apart. 

The bodies are another thing I hadn't considered- but it also makes things harder for the bearer. If the bearer kills a circle of big Koloss around him, he suddenly finds himself in the middle of a blue pit, with a bunch of angry blue berserkers climbing the edges of that pit. He has just given them the high ground. He will need to keep moving, keep mobile, and keep climbing to stay ahead of them, all of which distracts from his ability to fight the swarming beasts off. Vin and Elend can fight so many Koloss becasue they can dodge them so deftly, but Shardbearers don't have that luxury.

Now a Radiant...? A decent Radiant would kill so many Koloss it isn't funny, but there aren't many of those around.

But as I pointed out in my hypothetical, an army of 10'000 Alethi would only realistically have 1-2 Shardbearers, against thousands of Koloss. Just like Adolin and Dalinar slaughtering hundreds of Parshendi ultimately wouldn't have saved their armies, this lone Shardbearer won't be able to win the battle or even turn the tide alone.

 

17 hours ago, The One Who Connects said:

On the tangent of corpses, this might've just been Sazed's musing, but when the first few Koloss scaled the wall, he felt that there were enough bodies down below. I'd have to look at the exact words, but it felt like he was implying they used a pile of bodies as a hill next to the wall. I only bring this up because it puts manmade fortifications in a slightly more positive light if Koloss couldn't free-climb the Wall of Luthadel.

Indeed- the best thing for the Rosharans to do I think is to hide in their fortified cities/fortresses and let the Koloss waste their numbers. That said, it depends how quickly they learn this strategy, and the Final Empire aren't going to waste all their Koloss in a war of attrition with sieges. So I think that that strategy could help for sure, but it won't win the war for Roshar.

 

[Rich2244]

Also consider a big part of the high ground advantage is it restricts you to fighting with your weapon held overhead, a shardblade doesn't have this issue, you can just swing through the pile of corpses with no more difficulty than through air, whereas the Koloss attacking would have a much smaller target, in my mind this just increases the advantage a shardbearer has, especially as they will always have good footing while the Koloss in their frenzy will have to scramble over corpses that are hardly stable.

Also I would think a shardbearer would be fast enough to jump backwards to a clear spot, while they are nowhere near as agile as Vin/Elend they are still faster than a normal human due to increased strength.

Lastly Koloss seem to falter when faced with opponents who are stronger than they are, Vin/ Elend were able to break their frenzy with human soldiers, I would think a couple of shardbearers with parshendi could quite easily accomplish the same.

[Blackhoof]

9 hours ago, Rich2244 said:

Also consider a big part of the high ground advantage is it restricts you to fighting with your weapon held overhead, a shardblade doesn't have this issue, you can just swing through the pile of corpses with no more difficulty than through air, whereas the Koloss attacking would have a much smaller target, in my mind this just increases the advantage a shardbearer has, especially as they will always have good footing while the Koloss in their frenzy will have to scramble over corpses that are hardly stable.

Also I would think a shardbearer would be fast enough to jump backwards to a clear spot, while they are nowhere near as agile as Vin/Elend they are still faster than a normal human due to increased strength.

Lastly Koloss seem to falter when faced with opponents who are stronger than they are, Vin/ Elend were able to break their frenzy with human soldiers, I would think a couple of shardbearers with parshendi could quite easily accomplish the same.

Vin and Elend were only able to break their frenzy to a certain point- then they took control. Both Vin and Elend are much stronger than a Shardbearer, and Elend took advantage of the Koloss' exhaustion and surprise when he launched his attack. He had no chance of victory- his only hope was, with all that on his side, to merely weaken their frenzy enough to take control. 

Sure, a Shardbearer would weaken their frenzy, but not enough to make a big difference in the long run.

If a Shardbearer gets surrounded, then they have nowhere to jump to. Every corpse they add to the pile just threatens to bury them, unless they climb or jump out of the hole, which just adds to their troubles as Koloss keep attacking them.

Imagine if the Koloss get too high above him and he kills a Koloss to have the big bulk fall on him. Yeah he can push it out of the way and cut it up, but it is big, and heavy. Soon it won't be long until a few more bodies fall and he is buried and will either be crushed or rendered useless for the fight.

I'd hate to see a Koloss get their hands on a shardblade XD ouch

Edited April 18, 2017 by Blackhoof

[A Windspren he/him]

Koloss do an all-out charge. Alethi set spears similarly to how they do against heavy cavalry. Koloss impale themselves against 12 ft-long spears and die. Alethi military superiority wins.

 

Simple, and involves spears. I like it.

[The One Who Connects he/him]

11 hours ago, Kevino36 said:

Koloss do an all-out charge. Alethi set spears similarly to how they do against heavy cavalry. Koloss impale themselves against 12 ft-long spears and die. Alethi military superiority wins.

Simple, and involves spears. I like it.

If Dalinar were Alexander the Great, that might actually work. 

As it stands, I'm not so sure it'd be that simple. You could definitely take out the first row with a Sarissa Phalanx, but how many would still be usable on the second wave? The third? Koloss corpses get rather heavy when impaled on your spear.

If you did a row of 12ft spears, dropped snagged ones and your next row had 9ft spears... You'd still run out by the 4th or 5th batch of Koloss running at you.

Shardspear would be a different story, but that's a Radiant Exclusive item. Augmenter Fabrials could get close, but those still get weighted down by impaled corpses. Hrmm...

[lyrei]

This hasn't been mentioned but kriss said the roshar foot is larger than cosmere standard lets say by 2 inches we also know that the average alethi is over 6 feet that means in real number they are seven and a half feet(horneaters being 8) which is larger than the average koloss (5-7 feet) even accounting for greater strength and the large ones i would say on a large scale 2 alethi can beat 3 koloss (being armored, use tactics, stragety, have steel weapons) I also think the alethi numbers are under estimated look at how big amrams army was and he was one of many brightlords under sadeas with their being 10 highprinces the alethi army would have to be at least 200,000 which would crush the koloss even if they are 100,000 now jah keved is another 200,000 with the rest of the world being another 800,000 is about a million soldiers to crush the 500,000 skaa peasants