Mid-Range Game 4: The Alethi War of Unification

[Mailliw73 he/him]

First, let me address the points against me(mainly about my suggestions on this one.)

I was out of town this weekend and only just got back. I wasn't sure if I'd be able to get on at all this cycle, and so wanted to state my opinions and suggestions early. I thought about it afterwards and realized that some of them wouldn't actually work out so well.

Second, the Spy Officer. I was fairly convinced it was Macen, with points being brought up against him as well as my gut feeling. But with him admitting his surgeon role, I'm in a dilemma similar to Wilson claiming Officer. Lynching him may catch an Officer Spy, or it may lose us one of the few protective roles. It would also, as Kas said, decimate our Lighteyes. If we're wrong, we will have(probably) two loyal Lighteyes with one traitor in their midst. That will leave their vote up to easy manipulation.

I don't know where to place my vote though, since many of my suspects happen to be Lighteyes, but I know that only one of them is actually a spy. The darkeyes are more numerous, but have more that don't speak up enough. Reihmer. The keteks are awesome, but something feels off about you. Tomorrow, when I have more time to analyze, I'll try to find out why I feel like that about you. This is the only time I'll be able to get on before the cycle ends.

[Newan he/him]

 Whoa there, Newan. If you think I'm suspicious of you just because you don't play the game the same as few of the other players, then I'm really sorry I came across like that, and that's not what I was going for at all. I get that you're a little behind on everything that's going on, and taking this game a little less seriously (although that appears to be changing). It's largely that at the time, I really had nothing to go off of, and I knew that you were liable to respond to accusations relatively quickly. That's not to say I trust you, but at the moment, I really don't trust anyone (except for Tal and [sort of] Kas, of course). 

 

It's all good.  I do respond to accusations quickly, and it's those who have accused me who have helped me to get back into this game and take it more seriously, so I actually really appreciate those who have nudge voted me.  Somehow, it's when I'm bloodthirsty that people see me as trustworthy.  Is that weird?  

 

I see lots of good points, and I don't really have anything to add at the moment, so I'll do a vote tally.  

 

Marand (1): Renegade

Newan (0): Aonar, Kasimir

Norlav (1): twelfthrootoftwo

Odysa (2): mckeedee123, Newan

Eoldren (0): Kasimir

Ace (2): Alvron, Eolhondras

Joe (3): Aonar, Macen, Wilson

Karlin (1): Kasimir

Reihmer (1): Mailliw

[little wilson she/her]

Wait. Are we seriously going with decimating the Lighteyes just to find who the Officer is? (I grant it's maybe not a big deal if we think about it, since we're not exactly using the Lighteyes vote, but throwing it elsewhere, but I'm starting to get very worried about the direction we're taking.)

 

For me, it's mostly that the lighteyes are the narrowest group of suspects. I know there are more spies in the darkeyes, but while I have some suspicions, it's nothing conclusive for anyone. With this, we know that there's an Officer among the spies. It's not you, and it's not me. That leaves 3 people, one of whom I'm inclined to think it's not (Alvron), and one whom I don't think would lie about the role he claimed (Macen). If it's not Joe, I'll turn my attention to the darkeyes, since I don't want to decimate the lighteyes. But for now, Joe's the best idea I've got.

 

Plus, I don't like them having a roleblocking ability, even if it's limited to darkeyes. That's my territory. They need to back off. These darkeyes are in my army (or at least, Dalinar's), and therefore subject to my command. They are not to be commanded by filthy spies loyal to a traitorous highprince. 

[Kasimir he/him]

TBH, my gut reaction to Macen's admission is to give him the benefit of the doubt. But this might be just the aftermath of what happened to me in LG7, so here's my suggestion: fine. If Macen says he's the Surgeon, and he's publicly admitted it, as Aonar points out, his days are likely numbered anyway. So here's the thing: as he can't be role-blocked, Macen ought to be protecting Luckat this cycle. We continue to stipulate protection targets until we discover definite proof, one way or another, such as lynching the other Lighteyes Spy/Spies. Given that we don't know if we can trust Macen, I am not very keen on the idea of letting him be accountable to just himself and go off and protect whomsoever he wants.

 

So first things first: 1. We task Macen to protect Luckat. 2. If Luckat dies, we regard this as immediate evidence that Macen has been lying to us, and lynch him. 3. I don't know who else we ought to assign Guardsmen/other Surgeons to this cycle. I don't especially know if I would suggest protecting Macen this cycle. If he's a Spy, another Spy might take care of the problem for us. On the other hand, I really don't want to lose a Surgeon, if he's telling the truth. So 50/50 about adding him to the rolls of people who need protection.

 

So, to reiterate, here's my suggested plan, thus far:

 

1. We don't lynch Macen this cycle. Macen's job will be to protect Luckat, as he's a Lighteyes and can't be role-blocked by an officer. If Luckat dies, then next cycle, we regard this as an indication that Macen is a Spy and immediately lynch Macen. (What say you to this, Macen?)

 

2. Messengers, contact Luckat. Please.

 

3. Guardsmen, other Surgeons: we're hopefully going to discuss a list of players who will need protection. At this stage, I will tentatively suggest myself and Macen as candidates. We can further discuss this; stay posted.

 

4. I don't know what to say about the Officers at this stage, and I truly have mixed feelings about planning/stipulating too much, so I'll just leave this here as a note, for now.

 

I may as well ask for the moon at this stage, but I'd like responses from Alv and Joe on the matter. And I'm going to carefully think things through. I admit, that if we think about it, we've not been using the Lighteyes vote so much as neutralising it. So to some extent, it isn't necessarily a big deal, as long as there aren't two Spies left among the Lighteyes, at which point, well, the good point is, it'll be obvious, since I'm the Wit, and Alv doesn't get a vote.

 

I'm going to go and look over Joe and Alv again before making my decision. Thoughts? Comments?

 

Edit: Point taken, Wilson. And I'd just like to reassure everyone that I have no intention of going for my personal victory at this stage, as one of the two safe roles currently standing. (I know, I know, you only have my claim for it, which is why I'm restricting myself to simple discussion and helpfulness and suggesting that the Messengers go to Luckat.) It would be just selfish of me to prioritise that over us getting in a decent position, so that's not the case right now. If we're better off, then we can hopefully have a conversation about my pleading to be killed.

Well, since I seem to be the top suspect on the list at the moment. I will go ahead and say what my role is. I'm a surgeon.

--looping in Macen, to avoid unexpected misunderstandings. Edited December 8, 2014 by Kasimir

[little wilson she/her]

This may sound self-serving, but I would really like to be on that list. While I personally don't really care if I die, role-blocking is pretty important. Not as important as protection when there's a Shardbearer in play, but still. If I hit right (as I suspect I have this cycle), one of the teams doesn't get to sabotage. While it may not be incredibly useful to us now with the pool of suspects so wide, we're going to need it later in the game. I get that you guys don't entirely trust me, so you're hesitant to add me to a list like that. That's completely understandable. But at the same time, if you create a list, that means the spies aren't going to go for the people on that list (unless they're all in communication with each other and all target the same person during a battle). Do you really want to lose your role-blocker?

[Kasimir he/him]

This may sound self-serving, but I would really like to be on that list. While I personally don't really care if I die, role-blocking is pretty important. Not as important as protection when there's a Shardbearer in play, but still. If I hit right (as I suspect I have this cycle), one of the teams doesn't get to sabotage. While it may not be incredibly useful to us now with the pool of suspects so wide, we're going to need it later in the game. I get that you guys don't entirely trust me, so you're hesitant to add me to a list like that. That's completely understandable. But at the same time, if you create a list, that means the spies aren't going to go for the people on that list (unless they're all in communication with each other and all target the same person during a battle). Do you really want to lose your role-blocker?

This is going to sound weird, Cursor of Doom, but I totally knew I'd forgotten something/someone. *headdesk* Alright; current protection list: Macen, Kaddar, Kenara. Noted.

All the same, thoughts on having a plan? It does sound a bit more coercive than I'm fond of (...it's really more the style of someone I worked with in LG7, I guess...), but at the same time, it has the benefit of allowing us to move past the yardblock that's 'What to make of Macen?' at the moment, if or until we have some sort of definite way of figuring his allegiances.

The one thing that I do find curious about what Macen said is that he thinks Wilson's definitely proven herself as the Officer while the rest of us haven't proven our roles. I find that rather strange, because when examining the scenarios, we really don't necessarily end up with that as a definite thing. So I can't really see how Wilson's claim should be taken as being more serious or definitive than anyone else's.

And if he's correct about being the Surgeon, then Luckat does get protection, but that's only if Macen gets back on in time to see this, which is why I edited my post to quote him, so the notification will show up.

...I don't suppose we can ask for an extension on this one? Think we're starting to make headway

[Alvron]

1. We don't lynch Macen this cycle. Macen's job will be to protect Luckat, as he's a Lighteyes and can't be role-blocked by an officer. If Luckat dies, then next cycle, we regard this as an indication that Macen is a Spy and immediately lynch Macen. (What say you to this, Macen?)

And if Luckat isn't attacked?  We learn nothing.

 

Not sure what kind of response you are after from me, but I would like to point out that if I am not the Heterochromic player then there is no real reason for me to have come forward and claimed as I did.  Also if I am the Officer Spy then I would have a very good reason not to reveal myself as I have/had a great hiding spot within the darkeye camp.  It would make no sense at all for me to reveal myself as I did if I was evil.

Also please ignore the fact that in LG5 I rped as a Heterochromic cousin of Roion and was the GB spy.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Alvron

[Kasimir he/him]

And if Luckat isn't attacked?  We learn nothing.

 

Not sure what kind of response you are after from me, but I would like to point out that if I am not the Heterochromic player then there is no real reason for me to have come forward and claimed as I did.  Also if I am the Officer Spy then I would have a very good reason not to reveal myself as I have/had a great hiding spot within the darkeye camp.  It would make no sense at all for me to reveal myself as I did if I was evil.

Also please ignore the fact that in LG5 I rped as a Heterochromic cousin of Roion and was the GB spy.

I'm still from Great Lord Gamma's House, and my Great Lord would tell you that it's exactly because you invoke this reasoning to ask me to eliminate the possibility of you being an Eliminator that makes him suspicious of it. Because it's precisely when you say, "I wouldn't do this as an Eliminator because it doesn't make sense" and we assent to that that someone has good reason to take that route. Precisely because we would think an Eliminator can't do that. So in short, I grant that Gamma is highly paranoid and his paranoia might've rubbed off: I acknowledge that it makes no sense for you to reveal yourself, but at the same time, the possibility exists that you are banking exactly on this reasoning. I've played Evil with you (ironically, you were a Heterochromic back then, d'you remember?) and I respect how cunning you can be. That was reinforced in QF4. The short story is, I don't know what to believe when it comes to you. So I'm going to look towards tactical considerations for the time being.

1. Are you absolutely sure Macen is lying? Because otherwise, I'm not willing to risk a Surgeon on the hope that he's a Spy. (And yes, I accept he could be a Spy-aligned Surgeon.) Last Week, I let my suspicion get the better of me, and I lynched someone who claimed to be a Watchman. A Surgeon is a role far more useful (well, some might disagree.) I'm not really sure I want to run the risk of costing us another. I'm obviously not going to stop you though, and anyway, it's not even as if I can; if you want to vote for Macen, go ahead.

2. Do we indeed learn nothing? I'm suggesting we can put a temporary moriatum on the Macen line and pursue other lines. It would be a straw man to suggest that I'm saying we do nothing, and I wasn't banking on watching for Macen's protection on Luckat to come active. I was really just saying that the proof of Macen's allegiance, until we get something more definite, will have to come in the form of his working with us, rather than against us. Now, if it's qualms about putting Luckat's life on the line for that, then that I can understand. Still, lynching Joe or even going back to the tired debate about Odysa and Newan would still give us some information. And that's what I suggest we do. That there's no reason to compound one error with a second by being reckless and going after Macen by thinking he's lying or trying to throw something at us to prevent his death.

...FWIW, I do want to trust you, and I've been betrayed enough times in this game to know I should curb that impulse. I'm not convinced enough to throw a vote for Macen yet, but I'm going to go and have a think again.

[Alvron]

Is Ace lying?  I have no idea.  The only one (apart from myself) that I am 100% sure of is Luckat.  But if Wilson is telling the truth (which I am still in two minds about) then either Ace or Joe is evil.  My lists have Ace as a slightly higher chance than Joe so that is where I put my vote and as nothing has changed then I see no reason to change it.  The rollover is at 9am my time so I should be able to check up on how things develop near the rollover and can change vote if things change.

[luckat she/her]

I’m sorry I haven’t been on yet. I have been having issues accessing the site (I can only get on it on my phone). Also, I’m going to be really busy until Thursday. If you still want to use me as a contact for the Messengers, I’ll do my best to stay caught up and keep communication flowing.

I’ve read through all the posts, but I haven’t really had time to think about them. The only observation I have about any of the players is that Kas talks a lot.

I think there’s been too much focusing on trying to lynch the Lighteyes. If there’s a misstep there, it could cost us our Surgeon, and I don’t think their Officer is enough of a threat to be worth that risk. So I’m pretty worried that the three leaders in votes are two Lighteyes (one of which has claimed to be the Surgeon, the other which probably hasn’t yet seen that claim), and someone who everyone seems to think is not worth killing.

Also, we need to finish our accounting of the Lighteyes’ vote (that really should start earlier in the cycle when there’s a tie). Jost has yet to say where he put his vote last cycle. Ace didn’t mention voting last cycle, even though he gave names for the other two cycles. Ace, did you use the Lighteye vote last cycle? I think I should go last since I’m confirmed to be loyal to Dalinar.

Another thought is that if we’re using me as a test of Ace’s loyalty, there’s a chance I could die, and if I die when any Messengers contact me, that will be a waste of a cycle for them. If the Messengers are going to contact me, then the good Surgeon (assuming there is one) should protect me, whether it’s Ace or not.

Also, does anyone have any thoughts on how I should use my Shardblade?

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Just to remind you all, the Cycle will end in approximately 10 hours.

[Kasimir he/him]

Another thought is that if we’re using me as a test of Ace’s loyalty, there’s a chance I could die, and if I die when any Messengers contact me, that will be a waste of a cycle for them. If the Messengers are going to contact me, then the good Surgeon (assuming there is one) should protect me, whether it’s Ace or not.

Also, does anyone have any thoughts on how I should use my Shardblade?

Well, for one, if that's the case, then there's really no point in testing Ace's loyalty, since you're really our only high-stakes target here. Life would suck if we lost Wilson or Macen, assuming Macen's a good Surgeon, but it wouldn't be unendurable. And I'm definitely expendable.

Unless. What if we stipulated for one Guardsman as well to throw their protection onto you? In such a case, it looks as though the Eliminators wouldn't know who to role-block, or how many do end up protecting you. In addition, we would clearly be able to see if Surgeon protection failed and know that Macen didn't come through. Because right now, your thought banks on there being a good Surgeon, or at least another one. I'm not necessarily sure that is the case.

I just forgot. With Luckat and myself controlling the Lighteyes votes for Dalinar, then at least for there to be a Spy majority on the Lighteyes votes, we'd need Wilson, Macen, and Joe to be all Spies. So that's a plus at least.

...Aonar suggested that you consider Newan/Odysa for a Shardblade target. I'm not necessarily convinced that Shardblading someone is the best this cycle, in case of a misstep, but that's the only discussion on it I can currently find. The rest will require me looking through my notes to decide on who to vote on and to find suspects.

What are our plans for the Lighteyes vote this cycle?

 

Edit: I say 'The rest will require me' because I obviously cannot speak for the others. Myself, I am not convinced with regard to Newan/Odysa yet, and will have to look further. And yes, I talk a lot I like to help my team strategise.

 

Edit 2: spelling.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Kasimir

[Eolhondras he/him]

Also, does anyone have any thoughts on how I should use my Shardblade?

 

Options, from most sadistic to least.

 

1. Dalinar, then who cares if there are spies in his army.

 

2. In the event that Macen or Joe get lynched, kill the other, just to cover bases.

 

3. Suicide. I don't know why you would, but its an option?

 

4.Take a stab at someone who is not particularly active to try and uncover a sleeper agent i.e. Jasnah, maybe Mek or Karlin.

 

5. Pick a dark eyes that you find the most suspicious but has been a bit more active, might give some useful info with either a hit or miss.

 

6. Let the group consensus decide on the target, might save your conscience a little, but open to manipulation.

 

7. Don't use it.

 

 

My personal advice: Trust yourself because you can't trust anyone else. Ask your own questions, make your own conclusions, and if you're sitting at 75-80% certain that someone is a spy, stick-em. 

 

Edit: Blue

Edited December 8, 2014 by Eolhondras

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Norlav

Unless I've counted incorrectly, the lynch is between Odysa, Ace and Jost. I'm hesitant to focus on the lighteyes so hard, because of the risk of losing powerful roles. However, it's not likely to change at this stage in the cycle. My thoughts on Odysa haven't changed. Ace's reluctance to give his lighteye vote for last cycle is strange, when he stated his other targets. Surgeon is potentially a fakeable role, but risky due to not knowing where the spy kill will go. If he's not lying, though, we really don't want him dead. Jost hasn't said much this cycle. Last cycle he came down hard on Meta, backed by evidence (which, from what I've seen, isn't really his playstyle). It could have been genuine suspicion, or taking the opportunity to remove a threat.

For now, I think we should leave Ace alive. Surgeon is too powerful a role to throw away. Mostly to that end - to prevent an unexpected stack of votes - I'll put my vote on Jost.

 

Edit: Silly colour editor. A line break is not an excuse to switch colour.

Edited December 8, 2014 by twelfthrootoftwo

[little wilson she/her]

I don't have time to say much as I need to be getting ready for work, but luckat, if you pick a target, can you tell us who before the rollover? That's mostly so anyone taking an action on them know that could be a waste. I probably wouldn't change just to prevent any submission, but if I have two equally valid targets and one is dying, I could go for the other.

[Kasimir he/him]

...I know this seems to be against what I was advocating, but the more I think of it, well, Macen. Not that my vote can make a difference at this point, anyway. Remember I said I was going back through my notes and the stuff in the previous Cycles? Well.
 
The funny thing is, I can make sense of the way he seems to sometimes be echoing conclusions other people make--that whole slipping in that sweet spot where you seem useful and avoiding suspicion. Because that's kind of what you want to do, whether Spy or Surgeon. Your job's to stay alive so as to save lives because as a protective role, you're really important.
 
Cool. I got that.
 
And then there's this:

I'm fairly certain that Kaddar is the wit. But, the way he is acting I think he is either the wit or a spy.

So, I will also vote Kaddar. If he is The Wit, he gets a personal victory, and if he is the spy, we all get a win on the cycle!

Macen said this last cycle. And that just strikes me as exceedingly strange for a Surgeon. Sure, the only votes there were Meta's and mine. But these things can change, and we've both previously pulled our votes very late into the cycle. So well, if you are a Surgeon, why in the name of the Stormfather would you ever put a vote on someone you think is likely to be Wit and risk losing your role?! Why in the name of all things sane would you ever think that was a good idea, when you'd been previously savvy enough to stay out of suspicion to avoid having the village lose your role?!

A dead Surgeon and a role-less Surgeon are roughly equivalent; the only difference is that a role-less Surgeon is at least one body between us and the Spies. That's what made me change my mind. I can explain Macen's prior behaviour as caution because he knows he's a Surgeon, but then that falls apart--is inconsistent, I should say--in the light of his claim and acknowledgement that I am likely to be the Wit, and blithely stacking on a vote anyway.

Edit because quote did not show up in the correct box. Formatting fail.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Kasimir

[Jasnah Damodred]

Mailiw's acted like an Eliminator throughout the course of the game. I'm also suspicious of Odysa and Kasimir being in the same team. Additionally, it's always good to suspect Wilson. Still, Mailiw is a good bit more suspicious than the other three. Can't colorcode on mobile, voting for Mailiw.

[Kasimir he/him]

Mailiw's acted like an Eliminator throughout the course of the game. I'm also suspicious of Odysa and Kasimir being in the same team. Additionally, it's always good to suspect Wilson. Still, Mailiw is a good bit more suspicious than the other three. Can't colorcode on mobile, voting for Mailiw.

Sorry guys, I've been waiting to pull this one since forever. All credit to Awes for this, and to Wilson, who first sent me the P.A.F.O. originals off which this is based.

[Macen he/him]

...I know this seems to be against what I was advocating, but the more I think of it, well, Macen. Not that my vote can make a difference at this point, anyway. Remember I said I was going back through my notes and the stuff in the previous Cycles? Well.

 

The funny thing is, I can make sense of the way he seems to sometimes be echoing conclusions other people make--that whole slipping in that sweet spot where you seem useful and avoiding suspicion. Because that's kind of what you want to do, whether Spy or Surgeon. Your job's to stay alive so as to save lives because as a protective role, you're really important.

 

Cool. I got that.

 

And then there's this:

Macen said this last cycle. And that just strikes me as exceedingly strange for a Surgeon. Sure, the only votes there were Meta's and mine. But these things can change, and we've both previously pulled our votes very late into the cycle. So well, if you are a Surgeon, why in the name of the Stormfather would you ever put a vote on someone you think is likely to be Wit and risk losing your role?! Why in the name of all things sane would you ever think that was a good idea, when you'd been previously savvy enough to stay out of suspicion to avoid having the village lose your role?!

A dead Surgeon and a role-less Surgeon are roughly equivalent; the only difference is that a role-less Surgeon is at least one body between us and the Spies. That's what made me change my mind. I can explain Macen's prior behaviour as caution because he knows he's a Surgeon, but then that falls apart--is inconsistent, I should say--in the light of his claim and acknowledgement that I am likely to be the Wit, and blithely stacking on a vote anyway.

Edit because quote did not show up in the correct box. Formatting fail.

This was before the rule clarification about retracting votes causes the next person in line to lose their role. I assumed whoever was the first person to vote would lose theirs.

As far as my vote last cycle, I had to go check

I'll lighteyes vote for Kaddar

I didn't figure you already had a vote on you, so I put one there to try to make sure it was split up.

 

Hopefully that answers your questions. I'm working today so I have access to the forums all day, so please let me know if you have any other questions.

[little wilson she/her]

Like, say you wanted to roleblock Newan or I (Not saying you do, just examples), but he was going to kill me. So you want to know if you should chose me, but you don't because I'm going to hget killed. 

 

Not quite. I'm not asking for help in who I should choose. That's a decision I can make myself--and I need to make myself, since if we give a short list in the thread directing the Officer's hits, the only way it would affect the spies is if two spies from the same team ended up on the list. Otherwise, they'll just have the spy who's not on the list put in the sabotage order. This request also isn't for this particular cycle. I've already put in my role-blocking order and there isn't anything that will make me change it. The request is more for later cycles, when there's the debate I've got going on between two people. If luckat kills one, I'll probably go for the other one.

 

Kas, you make a good point about Macen, especially with that find, and I'm almost inclined to change my vote. I'm slightly worried that, if you're right, we're about to kill the actual Surgeon. Ultimately, I think I'll keep my vote where it is, unless we come to an agreement about a darkeyes to lynch. It looks like Maill's entered the suspect pool enough to be a possible target, along with Odysa, and I'm still not sure about lynching her. But if we want to lynch him, I'd be fine with that, since I've had some suspicions about him.

 

EDIT: That means that someone else put a vote on Damon (I'm betting luckat), and the last person must've voted for someone other than Kaddar or Damon. 

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I put my Vote on Meta last round.

 

Marand (1): Renegade

Odysa (2): mckeedee123, Newan

Ace (4): Alvron, Eolhondras, Joe, Kasimir

Joe (4): Aonar, Macen, Wilson, 12th root,

Karlin (1): Kasimir

Reihmer (1): Mailliw

 

We really are focusing on the Lighteyes too much. If Macen isn't a spy, then I highly doubt there are any more spies among the Ligtheyes.

 

Unfortunately, I'm a Swordsman, no Special Role, which doesn't help my cause. I'd rather we lynch Macen, simply because we don't get much Information from my death, but we do from Macen's Death.

 

​And Wilson, I only lynch teammates if they're inactive or soon to be outed.

[little wilson she/her]

We really are focusing on the Lighteyes too much. If Macen isn't a spy, then I highly doubt there are any more spies among the Ligtheyes.

 

Unfortunately, I'm a Swordsman, no Special Role, which doesn't help my cause. I'd rather we lynch Macen, simply because we don't get much Information from my death, but we do from Macen's Death.

 

Oh, there's another spy in the lighteyes. It's fine that you guys think I'm lying about not role-blocking Meta, but I'd like to figure out who did.

 

I know I said I wasn't going to change my vote, and I may regret doing this come the end of the cycle, but Jost. Macen. I'm still incredibly hesitant about this, so my comment about finding a darkeyes to lynch instead still totally holds true.

[Kasimir he/him]

Hmm, thank you Macen. I'm not entirely sure I'm convinced enough to retract my vote, but so noted. Thank you for responding.
 
To be honest, the more I think of it, the more I am very leery of going after the Lighteyes today when Joe indicated he wouldn't be around for a follow-up response. A Guardsman is basically a one-time deal, and if we lose our Surgeon (assume the worst; assume we only have one Surgeon), then we're basically really in for it right now.
 
Of the Darkeyes, Maili and Odysa are the most likely 'possible targets' that won't have votes squandered. I'm going to note suspicions of Karlin and Jasnah as well: Karlin's been looking in on the thread and saying nothing, and that's always just a little bit strange as it could indicate a Spy trying to play inactive (or possibly, not, of course) and attempts to draw him out haven't led to anything. I've gone back through the thread--he basically said something in Cycle One, nothing in Cycle Two, and a throw-away comment in Cycle Three that he should've known that Jain was evil. That's it. Seems a lot to me like someone's doing their best to stay above the inactive death requirements--just barely. Same with Jasnah, though at least she made good on her promise to come back with suspicions, even if I have no idea exactly what grounds them.
 
There's one or two 'implicature inconsistencies' between Jasnah and Maili (that's to say, Jasnah finds Maili suspicious even though they seem to share one or two people they're vocal about not trusting.) I just flag these as people I'd look into on the Darkeyes end for now and actually set off to do that. Ren's a good candidate as well--as I previously mentioned. He probably has RL reasons, but at the same time, gets markedly more quiet as an Eliminator, so it's not something I'm willing to immediately brush off.
 
...And if we take Joe to be telling the truth, and if we take Wilson to be telling the truth, that means someone between Alv and Macen is the Officer, and the other is the Surgeon.

Dovie'andi se tovya sagain, is that it? It seems to me we don't necessarily need to settle the Lighteyes problem today if we can 'soft-settle' Macen's allegiances, at least for this skirmish. But I'll map this puzzle out and see if there are some cases we can rule out in order to figure this out. Clock's still ticking.

[Kasimir he/him]

I apologise for the double-post, but I reckoned that nobody wanted to deal with a super-long post, and since this does shift a little from the intent of my last post...well, better to be safe than sorry, I suppose :/

So: ok guys, maybe we’ve been approaching this wrong by derailing into the Lighteyed Officer. At this point, we think Wilson is the Officer—well, she’s claimed to be one, and we’ve tentatively accepted that claim.

My suggestion is that we stick to the plan where Macen plus another Surgeon/Guardsman protects Luckat for this cycle. If the Guardsman winds up injured, we know Macen didn’t do his job and we lynch him next cycle. We simply don’t have the time to process all these claims and still make a good lynch and if we only have one Surgeon, I don’t really want us to play Russian Roulette and try to weed the true/good Surgeon out. We’re not Matrim Cauthon.

What about the lynch, then? I suggest (sorry Odysa), that we lynch Odysa. Here are my reasons: Wilson has been continuously insisting that there must be a second Officer hiding amongst <Jost, Alv, and Macen.> But all of them have claimed to not be the Officer. Alv has claimed to simply not be an Officer, Jost has claimed to be a Swordsman, and Macen has claimed to be a Surgeon. Now, if we must lynch a Lighteyes, we could lynch Jost, because based on his claim, we don’t stand that much to lose if we’re wrong. But all that tells us is that either Alv or Macen is the Surgeon, and that either of them is Officer #2. I don’t find that terribly helpful as we’d be forced to face a similar dilemma the next day.

But how does lynching Odysa help us? Really, because Odysa is the lynchpin. (Sorry about the pun.) Our assumptions are entirely based on Wilson’s claim that there is a second Lighteyed Officer. And while there’s nothing personal here, I don’t want to risk our Surgeon just to go and figure out who that could be. So what I think Odysa’s lynch lets us achieve is that it lets us rule out scenarios in which we have one Lighteyes Officer, and that is only Wilson. We would then know that Wilson has been lying to us.

Consider: as I’ve previously mentioned, if Wilson is telling the truth, then it necessitates that Odysa and Torwel are truthful. But if Wilson is lying, then the only scenarios in which Wilson lies and we only have a single Officer are those scenarios in which Wilson does not actually role-block Odysa but roleblocks Meta and Torwel instead (i.e. the ones where Odysa lies about having been role-blocked. The assumption being that Odysa has no reason to lie if she is Loyal.) Note: there are also more complicated variants where Wilson isn’t actually an Officer but is in contact with one. Nonetheless, this still results in Odysa, Wilson, and that Officer being in cahoots and being Spies.

It’s perhaps not as informative as lynching someone in the <Jost, Alv, and Macen> triumverate, but I think it allows us to begin the next round knowing if we’re barking up the wrong tree: brings to mind the tale of the giant who brings down his entire house trying to swat a mosquito.

Last, Odysa has avowed herself to be roleless, meaning that should we mislynch, we’re at least not taking out a Guardsman or a Messenger.

[little wilson she/her]

For the most part, I see what you're saying, Kas, and I agree with it. My one catch is that it seems to be that if Odysa ends up being a spy, then that means I must be lying. But what if she is a spy, and she was still telling the truth?

 

You guys seem to be forgetting one very crucial piece of information based on my eliminator past: I don't do gambits that are incredibly risky. That's what this gambit would require. A lot of risk with very little true reward. So why in the world would I ever do it? And yes, I know your paranoia is saying that the very fact that I wouldn't do it means that I could. Trust me. I wouldn't. Even in future games when I'm an eliminator, I'm not going to do it. You guys know me. I plan. I stategize. I go for the plans and strategies that are best, with the littlest chance of suspicion placed on me and my comrades. This isn't one of those plans. While I get that you have no reason to trust me, at least trust the facts.