LG112 - Metacycle Nine: The RolePier Strikes Back

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

42 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

xino was literally not on the Shard during either of the turns where the kill didn’t happen, according to his member page “last online” stat. Though he was actually online about an hour ago, so you can’t verify that. My point is, it wasn’t a deliberate choice to “holster his kill”, whatever it was, since he was just unable to submit it.

By “holster the kill” I meant his Coinshot action in the Pseudogame

42 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

You realize we would have gotten 2 elim flips if we’d won the bet, right? Unless they were exactly coco and Qian, we’d have won by now. Also, there’s absolutely no way we had 3 starting elims with 17 players. Conventional wisdom is 25% if the elims don’t have access to strong roles. This game has an alignment scanner but no defense against it, which is why I was considering 5 starting elims a while back.

I have to admit that in this point you are in the right. I hadn’t considered all that, and with it, yeah, the possibilities of having only three starting elims are extremely low

I still wanna kill you, or Dive

44 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I have to say, your frantic defense of a totally inactive player is really not doing much for me. It’s clear to me that you believe that exeing xino will make you lose the game. What’s not clear is why you believe that. All the evidence I have points to him as being elim.

I just don’t wanna walk down this path so calmly

And I know that if there’s a Convert, it’s between you and Dive, I think it’s you and if it’s you you wouldn’t be campaigning like this for Xino’s death

I could be wrong, in which case I will greatly apologize once this is over

48 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

You realize that since those early cycles, there has been a conversion?

Yes

I was considering her as a starting elim here

I doubt the elims would pick someone largely inactive as their Convert

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, I'm not going to bother convincing you, since you seem to be tunneling pretty hard. But how about a pragmatic argument, which I should have brought up earlier? If xino is village, we've already lost the game. He's not going to show up and vote, so we have 2 voting villagers against voting 2 elims, which is a tie, resulting in no execution. After the NK, we'd be down to 2-2 and unable to force an exe even if xino shows up.

So let's exe xino. If he does show up and vote, and you are convinced he's village, join his vote, or convince him to vote for me or whatever.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

17 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, I'm not going to bother convincing you, since you seem to be tunneling pretty hard. But how about a pragmatic argument, which I should have brought up earlier? If xino is village, we've already lost the game. He's not going to show up and vote, so we have 2 voting villagers against voting 2 elims, which is a tie, resulting in no execution. After the NK, we'd be down to 2-2 and unable to force an exe even if xino shows up.

So let's exe xino. If he does show up and vote, and you are convinced he's village, join his vote, or convince him to vote for me or whatever.

I’d actually argue the opposite for those reasons

If Xino is village, and he for some reason returns, he certainly will not vote for himself. So if the vote became 2-2 and both villagers (let’s say me and you) were voting him (which it probably won’t, I’m not too optimistic about Kit Kat’s return, I see this as a contest between you and me over Dive’s vote) he’d vote with the elims and we’d lose

I’m not sure if we’re understanding each other here, but if Xino is village, we’ve only already lost if we set ourselves to killing him

[Araris Valerian he/him]

19 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I’m not sure if we’re understanding each other here, but if Xino is village, we’ve only already lost if we set ourselves to killing him

If I'm elim and Xino is village you lose, because my teammate and I vote xino, you and the other villager vote for me, and nobody dies. I NK you and then exe whomever the next day.

If I'm village and xino is village, then we've lost because you've convinced yourself that I'm elim.

So in both worlds where xino is village, you lose the game.

Not to mention that you think Kit Kat is both an original villager and not a convert. So you think Divergent and I, the only two other active players, are elims. I'm not sure how you're going to convince Divergent to vote with you when your whole argument hinges on him being elim.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

If I'm elim and Xino is village you lose, because my teammate and I vote xino, you and the other villager vote for me, and nobody dies. I NK you and then exe whomever the next day.

The only way that works is if your teammate in question is Dive, in which case, as I mentioned, I am utterly doomed

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Not to mention that you think Kit Kat is both an original villager and not a convert. So you think Divergent and I, the only two other active players, are elims. I'm not sure how you're going to convince Divergent to vote with you when your whole argument hinges on him being elim.

In the case that we kill you and there is a remaining elim, and Divergent helped kill you, I would not consider him the remaining elim as he could’ve just backed you up on Xino

[Araris Valerian he/him]

41 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

The only way that works is if your teammate in question is Dive, in which case, as I mentioned, I am utterly doomed

Your analysis of Kit Kat indicates she is village. The only world where Kit Kat is village and you win the game is the one where you exe xino today. Was your analysis worth anything? Like, why bother saying Kit Kat is village if you are just going to act like she isn’t?

[coco.pudding she/they]

4 hours ago, The Unknown Medallion said:

You guys could have bet on the elims and this would be over by now

Well yeah but we wanted to win the bet

[Stardust She/Her]

1 minute ago, coco.pudding said:

Well yeah but we wanted to win the bet

Ouch

I mean I get why you did it but still

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

30 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Your analysis of Kit Kat indicates she is village. The only world where Kit Kat is village and you win the game is the one where you exe xino today. Was your analysis worth anything? Like, why bother saying Kit Kat is village if you are just going to act like she isn’t?

Huh?

I don’t get why that’s true

Okay nvm I see why that’s true

If Kit Kat is village, that means either Dive or Xino is elim, if it’s Xino we gotta kill him now and if it’s Dive then there’s no way I win unless Xino and Kit Kat spawn in cause Dive will vote with you

I would still rather go out like this, holding onto some slim hope

How have I been acting like Kit Kat isn’t village though?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

If Kit Kat is village, that means either Dive or Xino is elim, if it’s Xino we gotta kill him now and if it’s Dive then there’s no way I win unless Xino and Kit Kat spawn in cause Dive will vote with you

Yeah, this was the pragmatic case I was trying to make.

Your approach to this cycle is reminding me of the Watch's approach to killing the dragon in Terry Pratchett's "Guards! Guards!".

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

Your approach to this cycle is reminding me of the Watch's approach to killing the dragon in Terry Pratchett's "Guards! Guards!".

I am not familiar with the case study

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I am not familiar with the case study

It's something of a parody on both taking down Smaug from the Hobbit and possibly the Death Star in episode 4. The Watch thinks that only a "million-to-one" chance shot can kill the dragon, so they deliberately sabotage their own setup to make their arrow less likely to hit.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

Yk Araris, I’ve always wondered

Where does your title come from?

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

It's something of a parody on both taking down Smaug from the Hobbit and possibly the Death Star in episode 4. The Watch thinks that only a "million-to-one" chance shot can kill the dragon, so they deliberately sabotage their own setup to make their arrow less likely to hit.

Does it work?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

4 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Yk Araris, I’ve always wondered

Where does your title come from?

Araris Valerian is from the Codex Alera series, and in that series he is a knight ferrous, which just means he can manipulate metal in various ways, mostly during combat.

4 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Does it work?

Nope. They have to get rescued by a different dragon.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Araris Valerian is from the Codex Alera series, and in that series he is a knight ferrous, which just means he can manipulate metal in various ways, mostly during combat.

4 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Hmm sounds cool

Why an image of Shallan shows up when I look it up is beyond me

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Nope. They have to get rescued by a different dragon.

@Divergent you hear that?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

19 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Why an image of Shallan shows up when I look it up is beyond me

That's not Shallan, she's Isana, the main character's aunt (who looks young for in-world reasons). I'd strongly suggest reading the books for yourself. It's easily one of my favorite completed fantasy series.

[Divergent He/Him]

There is no way the night kill gets skipped if I'm elim

I'll be back in a couple hours to read and share thoughts

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

That's not Shallan, she's Isana, the main character's aunt (who looks young for in-world reasons). I'd strongly suggest reading the books for yourself. It's easily one of my favorite completed fantasy series.

I'm pretty sure it's originally art of Shallan with the santhid in WoR

I might check it out

45 minutes ago, Divergent said:

There is no way the night kill gets skipped if I'm elim

I'll be back in a couple hours to read and share thoughts

Now this is tough cause I'm inclined to believe you on that

The only cycle that missed an NK was meta-cycle 8

You could have theoretically been converted then

Did the GMs clarify whether a Convert took or did not take the place of an NK?

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

Hoid hit reload on the site. Then he hit it again. And again.

The Shard was down. This one thread was all they had left - how, protected by who, he didn't know, and he didn't care to know. Only five of them had access.

Him. Araris. Dive. Kit Kat. Xino.

Five people to decide the fate of the Shard.

And two of them wouldn't even show up.

Hoid had spent the day checking his phone, reloading, cycling through this process. He had asked for answers in the PM that had carried the link to this thread. The unknown sender had never answered, and the PM had crashed soon after. As the hours passed, he had come to feel an odd disconnect, a blankness in the face of the destruction. This site, for so long, had meant everything to him. And now it had all come crashing down. The koloss, or whatever the damned stand in was, had ravaged the place. Even if the Anonymous Accounts were stopped, Hoid didn't know how much could be recovered.

There was a guilt to it. He could've, and should've, done more. They had all known the stakes of that game, and yet they had treated it like any other. They had hesitated too long, fought too much amongst themselves.

"Tonight, we drown in secrets."

Long Game 106. It had been a good one. It had ended exactly a year ago, to the day. June 23rd.

Hoid's finger trembled as he rested it over the keyboard. The light in the guest bedroom was bright. It did not contain the shadows that felt fitting for a moment such as this one.

"We herald our salvation, and your damnation."

Quick Fix 77. A game with a happier ending. Well, not really. The same ending, just viewed from a different perspective.

"Doom nears, Lord Markus, whether you tempt it or not." Long Game 109.

Despite the guilt, the truth was, Hoid found it difficult to blame himself too much. He found it difficult to feel much of anything, to be truly true.

"I condemn the force that makes us go through this."

LG 106 again. Yet Hoid found it difficult to condemn even them. Because...

"... I worry the truth of it lies in our own hearts."

A silent tear traced its way down Hoid's cheek, landing on the trembling finger, sliding off onto the black key.

They were all a part of him. Kéamen Wither, naive and hopeful. Broken, in the end, perhaps more than any other. CL, passionate. He rebelled against those who oppressed him. He had won. Lord Markus, tired. Worn. He had never found the strength to fight. Ekkar, Wishikk, Adam, Shifter, H.E.A.R.T.H. Evinir Cragborn, the first of them all. Perhaps the last. Hoid's eye wandered to the tab. He had written it earlier, in his tint of guilt. If things went well, he would post it. If things went wrong... then it would be even more important he do so.

As the Shard died, Hoid wondered which part of him had made it into its destroyers. Which part he had helped craft. Which part, carefully extracted from his soul, put onto a screen, had tasted life and chosen to punish its creators. It was a paradox, to fight one's gods.

Many of Hoid's creations defied destiny.

He shook his head. Those thoughts did not benefit him now.

As things stood, he argued to shut down Araris. Perhaps in another time, turning on a friend like that would give him grief; but if he was correct here, then Araris's presence was already gone. And none of this was actually hurting people, anyways. So why did it feel so meaningful?

Another tear fell down his cheek, falling straight onto the laptop. His head dipped. His lip shook. Slowly, he closed the device. He couldn't post again today.

I'm so sorry, he thought. For all of them. For the beings of flesh, and for those of soul alone.

Storms, he hoped he was right.

[Qianweilian He/him]

4 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Five people to decide the fate of the Shard.

And two of them wouldn't even show up.

Mua ha ha.

3 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

He could've, and should've, done more.

You're right, you should've. (Don't take this personally, I'm just taunting you)

5 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

"I condemn the force that makes us go through this."

...yourself?

6 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

And none of this was actually hurting people, anyways. So why did it feel so meaningful?

Because getting banned from the Shard is a fate worse than death, obviously.

7 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Storms, he hoped he was right.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

8 minutes ago, Qianweilian said:

...yourself?

No you and your gang dimwit

(don’t take this personally either, I’m reacting to your taunts)

9 minutes ago, Qianweilian said:

The worst part is this could mean something and I have no idea what