Mint11 she/her Posted April 21 Posted April 21 1 hour ago, Mist. said: We got told C by Araris, it’s 65% and C doesn’t change And even if it did, the number of alive players vs the number of players is different must have missed that. thanks for clarifying given the percentages, I'm not really sure how much we'll be able to discern from clues (pending araris' answer to my question above, but I think I figured out the intent as I was writing it up). so I'd say searching for an item is about equally as helpful right now (there are a couple good ones, it's just not very likely we'll get them). and then searching for another player is really only helpful if we're already suspicious of them
Araris Valerian he/him Posted April 21 Author Posted April 21 (edited) For anyone that explores for a clue, there is a 65% chance of a clue from the current scenario pool, with each of the 3 options being equally likely. Then there would be a 17.5% chance for each of the other two pools, and again, any of the 3 options are equally likely. Also, there is a 20% chance up front that exploring players get lost and find nothing. Also, C is fixed at the starting value. Edited April 21 by Araris Valerian 1
Qianweilian He/him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 13 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: All of the clues are actually references to past SE games, so I'll consider it Ah, so you're saying I'm doomed?
Mystic He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 Brax rubbed his eyes, staring out one of the many windows of the room. With Warren dead, that meant two people had died so far…. Was the Void card worth risking death? He’d shown it was from when he found his skull card. Not to mention that he couldn’t leave. Not yet. The house would not let him. Brax pulled out his deck of cards, flicking through them. Should he draw one? He wasn’t sure… He might need them later… Against his better judgement, Brax flipped the top card. Idiot. Brax snorted, he supposed they were, after today. The question was one of tomorrow, would it hold? Or would everyone get their act together to help figure this out? He didn’t know. 1
Araris Valerian he/him Posted April 21 Author Posted April 21 3 hours ago, Qianweilian said: Ah, so you're saying I'm doomed? No more than anyone else in the House .
Doc12 Posted April 21 Posted April 21 3 hours ago, Mist. said: Brax rubbed his eyes, staring out one of the many windows of the room. With Warren dead, that meant two people had died so far…. Was the Void card worth risking death? He’d shown it was from when he found his skull card. Not to mention that he couldn’t leave. Not yet. The house would not let him. Brax pulled out his deck of cards, flicking through them. Should he draw one? He wasn’t sure… He might need them later… Against his better judgement, Brax flipped the top card. Idiot. Brax snorted, he supposed they were, after today. The question was one of tomorrow, would it hold? Or would everyone get their act together to help figure this out? He didn’t know. Verna sat up from the bed, black silk blankets draped around her like the dress she'd been wearing. "Drew something interesting, my gambler?" She smirked. "Come now, back into bed with you." "The deaths -" Brax began. "Shhh..." Verna beckoned him again. "The house has claimed one, two. It shall devour another tonight. Far too late to worry now." She stretched, catlike, inviting. "Perhaps the house might claim even one of us tonight, so why not die with one less regret?" Brax stared at the card in his hand. What a striking figure he cut, silhoutted against the moonlight from the window, even though the bedchamber they'd found was in the middle of the house, far from any exterior wall. But Verna did not begrudge the house its little tricks. It had provided a soft bed and silken sheets for the night, after all. The deaths... She'd spoken lightly. But truly. Perhaps later tonight she would put the mourning veil back on, light a candelabra, and plunge deeper into the house, let it charm and open itself up to her questing mind. The mourning would come, the deaths a stark reminder that the rules of the mortal world still held sway. She would explore. She would learn. Perhaps the gambler might follow, or he might not. There was no attachment here, yet. Only the comfort of brief, fiery spark. She smiled at Brax once more, understanding the house. Who wouldn't want to keep one such as him as a pretty little trophy? "Back to bed, darling. Deaths after." ------------------------ Still a waiting game to find out our scenario. Following isn't a terrible idea. I wouldn't know who to start with, though. What floor would people be incentivized to lie about? Also I might be misremembering but I feel like Mint compared the claims and they were pretty even. I'm personally going to be looking for clues. 8 hours ago, Akimikoisthecutest said: Ok, so I'm not super sure who I should agree with. Doc's argument does seem convincing, but I'm a little biased... But I think that there is something that we're not seeing yet... What argument am I making again? I don't really feel suspicious of any one person from the votes from yesterday. There wasn't any real sense of urgency to tie-break. Again, we might learn more from tonight's NK. So it's another waiting game. 2
Mystic He/Him Posted April 21 Posted April 21 4 minutes ago, Doc12 said: Verna sat up from the bed, black silk blankets draped around her like the dress she'd been wearing. "Drew something interesting, my gambler?" She smirked. "Come now, back into bed with you." "The deaths -" Brax began. "Shhh..." Verna beckoned him again. "The house has claimed one, two. It shall devour another tonight. Far too late to worry now." She stretched, catlike, inviting. "Perhaps the house might claim even one of us tonight, so why not die with one less regret?" Brax stared at the card in his hand. What a striking figure he cut, silhoutted against the moonlight from the window, even though the bedchamber they'd found was in the middle of the house, far from any exterior wall. But Verna did not begrudge the house its little tricks. It had provided a soft bed and silken sheets for the night, after all. The deaths... She'd spoken lightly. But truly. Perhaps later tonight she would put the mourning veil back on, light a candelabra, and plunge deeper into the house, let it charm and open itself up to her questing mind. The mourning would come, the deaths a stark reminder that the rules of the mortal world still held sway. She would explore. She would learn. Perhaps the gambler might follow, or he might not. There was no attachment here, yet. Only the comfort of brief, fiery spark. She smiled at Brax once more, understanding the house. Who wouldn't want to keep one such as him as a pretty little trophy? "Back to bed, darling. Deaths after." ------------------------ Still a waiting game to find out our scenario. Following isn't a terrible idea. I wouldn't know who to start with, though. What floor would people be incentivized to lie about? Also I might be misremembering but I feel like Mint compared the claims and they were pretty even. I'm personally going to be looking for clues. What argument am I making again? I don't really feel suspicious of any one person from the votes from yesterday. There wasn't any real sense of urgency to tie-break. Again, we might learn more from tonight's NK. So it's another waiting game. Well, in the event of Scenario 1(the one where following is best, the middle floor or the top floor) At least, that’s where the person I’m searching is
Araris Valerian he/him Posted April 22 Author Posted April 22 Day 2: The Collapsed Room With no other ideas, and with trust beginning to fray, the explorers set forth once more into the halls of the House. This time individuals split off from their groups much faster, hoping to avoid being caught alone with the unknown killer. Even Brax and Verna parted at the first intersection they came to, though they promised to re-unite come morning. Archie, somewhat anxious now that he was alone, opened a doorway and was surprised to see a room that appeared to be somewhat in disrepair. So far, every part of the House was nearly good as new, which made some kind of sense, since the place hadn't existed a week ago. But in here, mold covered the walls, and the floorboards were damp. A musty smell hung in the air, so unlike the fresh scent that permeated the hallways. Perhaps this room, clearly left uncared for, could hold a clue to the secret of the House. Archie made his way across to floor to a stack of crates leaning against the far wall. *Crack!* The damp floor had rotten through, and no sooner than Archie's weigh was fully over the dark patch the floor gave way. His hands flailed about, grasping for a hold to no avail as he fell a dozen feet into the room below, landing in a crumpled heap. A windspren hovered over Archie's prone form, unusually still for one of its kind. The spren prodded first his legs, then his cheek, and was rewarded with a groan as Archie weakly opened one eye. "Speak the words. They are your friends, you want to protect them." Archie's mind was fuzzy, but it snapped into focus as the words he was to speak formed in his mind. At the same time, his vision cleared, showing a person approaching swiftly from the side, an arm raised and holding some kind of weapon. The newcomer hauled Archie's body off into the shadows, and the spren made as if to follow when a pulsing *bum-badum* emanated from deep within the House, shaking the walls and passing through the air of the basement room. When the vibration contacted the spren, its shape fuzzed and it dropped to the floor, motionless. Then the color slowly seeped out of the spren, spreading out into the floor before dissipating into some unknown part of the House. A grey outline of a young man remained momentarily, frozen in a pile on the floor, before a light draft scattered the form to mingle with the dust floating in the air. In the rest of the House, a few of the explorers noted that the decorations they passed in the hallways and the hues of the rugs they walked over seemed a bit more vibrant than when they had ventured forth at the start of the night. Archie @Divergent has been killed! He was an Innocent Explorer and a proto-radiant. Day 2 has begun, and will end at 8PM Pacific Time on Thursday, April 23. There will be a majority execution this cycle. There is no vote minimum, and ties will be decided randomly. Player List: Spoiler @___ as Mr. Monopoly, who is looking to redevelop the House Through the Living Wahr as Warren the wisp-followed - Innocent Explorer @Fizz9 as Patrick, a friendly neighborhood smith @Through The Living Star as Mabel, who is secretly not a grouch @Akimikoisthecutest as Talasin the journalist @Qianweilian as Randal Boar, who might be really lost @Doc12 as Verna, a writer enamored by the House @Mist. as Brax @Frozen Mint as Luminair, a disciple of Aralis Divergent as Archie - Innocent Explorer and proto radiant @Miss Fallen as K. Tims, yoyo artist extraordinaire @Conure1243 as Liam @StrikerEZ as Variel the dark and funky @Verdance as Harley, a secretary with a detective complex 4
Mystic He/Him Posted April 22 Posted April 22 First off, this means we can’t be in scenario 3, second, I searched Star tonight and she was telling the truth about her searching N0, so she’s probably not a scenario 1 Elim. Im gonna go and look at what Dive’s been saying these past bits to see if perhaps he was NKed for that
Doc12 Posted April 22 Posted April 22 Verna glides through the house like a ghost, candelabra in hand. A dusty library. Bedchamber after bedchamber. A charred room. She'd left Brax in bed an hour ago, and had not crossed paths with another. Suddenly, the house shook, rumbling with something like dark glee. There was a sound like thunder from down the corridor. Verna hurried to the scene, finding... There was no body, which was what she had feared. A lecture hall, thrown in disarray. White dust everywhere - remnants of a great intricate chalk circle, breached in many points. Figures like some madman had drawn crude monsters all across the room. No sign of life except for motes of chalk dust floating in the air. "My my," Verna murmured. "Some kind of ritual, perhaps?" She picked up a nub of chalk, traced it experimentally across the ground. She made a long white streak, but nothing magical. Smiling softly, she put the chalk in a purse, picked up her candelabra, and continued down the hall. ------------------- Went clue-hunting. Found the remnants of a Rithmatic defense, which is unique to Scenario 2. Which is supported by Dive having a role which rules out 3. So if I understand correctly, and I'm paraphrasing my GM PM here, we have a 65% chance of being in scenario 2, and 17.5 chance I just got a clue from a different scenario? 2
Verdance he/him Posted April 22 Posted April 22 A Rithmatic defense? Awesome. i searched for items. Still waiting for my GM DM back on that, assuming I probably didnt get anything. Correction: I found an old boot. Harley held up the old boot for inspection. A singular old boot, made of dark res leather, stitched together by a master, with metal grips on the bottom. He unfolded his pocket magnifying glass, on which he had spent more boxings than he would like to admit. “Hmmm… no obvious blood stains, or out of the ordinary scuffing…” He sniffed the boot, then recoiled. “Rancid. But not kandra flesh.” He turned the boot over, looking for any clues he might have missed. He did not find a clue. He did, however, find the absence of a clue. “Who leaves a boot out in the open… unless it was dropped by the killer! The laces indeed did not seem to have ever been tied, no scuff marks are present, so the killer must have worn these to obscure his own distinctive tracks, in a hurry not lacing them, then ditched one.” He left the room, following the hall back to the main area. “Not a kandra, that’s for sure.” 2
Stardust She/Her Posted April 22 Posted April 22 37 minutes ago, Mist. said: second, I searched Star tonight and she was telling the truth about her searching N0, so she’s probably not a scenario 1 Elim. I KNEW IT. I KNEW YOU WERE GOING TO SEARCH ME. Now you believe I'm not an elim (or at least for scenario one, but I'll take it)! YAY! I searched for a clue tonight, and I found a gemstone with Voidlight, so I'm pretty sure we're in scenario two, when we add that with the fact that it couldn't be scenario three, and the other clue from Doc. Yay! 1
StrikerEZ he/him Posted April 22 Posted April 22 So, I searched for clues and found a skull with steel spikes in its eyes (a clue shared between 1 and 3). My initial reaction upon seeing that Dive had a role was to go “oh great, elim game.” But it seems I’ve misunderstood something about the rules? I really don’t understand how my clue wouldn’t mean we’re in scenario 1 with all the information we have.
Mystic He/Him Posted April 22 Posted April 22 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Through The Living Star said: I KNEW IT. I KNEW YOU WERE GOING TO SEARCH ME. Now you believe I'm not an elim (or at least for scenario one, but I'll take it)! YAY! I searched for a clue tonight, and I found a gemstone with Voidlight, so I'm pretty sure we're in scenario two, when we add that with the fact that it couldn't be scenario three, and the other clue from Doc. Yay! Well, based on everything, including the clues, the NK, and the ties on D1, I think we can safely assume we’re in scenario 2 for now(so unless all the other people who searched for clues got scenario 1 clues) that is probably what we’re in. Looking at the scenario 2 rules and weights. It’s weighted for based on exploring upstairs, gives roles to downstairs, and the Gun to middle floor people. Looking at it from that perspective, assuming the person lied about their exploration(may not have) but I want to vote someone not on the middle floor. So…. Doc, Ver, Striker, Mint, Fallen. I don’t have a read on Fallen yet, Doc I’d like to keep around, Ver… didn’t vote, and we kind of need that, so yeah. Mint, I’m not sure, and same with striker Verdance 8 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said: So, I searched for clues and found a skull with steel spikes in its eyes (a clue shared between 1 and 3). My initial reaction upon seeing that Dive had a role was to go “oh great, elim game.” But it seems I’ve misunderstood something about the rules? I really don’t understand how my clue wouldn’t mean we’re in scenario 1 with all the information we have. So, there’s a 65% chance to get clues from our scenario, and a chance for the clue to not be from our scenario, so getting that clue doesn’t guarantee scenario 1. that was a bad explanation, sorry, the best I can do here is refer you to the rules Edited April 22 by Mist.
___ He/Him Posted April 22 Posted April 22 (edited) 1 hour ago, Doc12 said: Verna glides through the house like a ghost, candelabra in hand. A dusty library. Bedchamber after bedchamber. A charred room. She'd left Brax in bed an hour ago, and had not crossed paths with another. Suddenly, the house shook, rumbling with something like dark glee. There was a sound like thunder from down the corridor. Verna hurried to the scene, finding... There was no body, which was what she had feared. A lecture hall, thrown in disarray. White dust everywhere - remnants of a great intricate chalk circle, breached in many points. Figures like some madman had drawn crude monsters all across the room. No sign of life except for motes of chalk dust floating in the air. "My my," Verna murmured. "Some kind of ritual, perhaps?" She picked up a nub of chalk, traced it experimentally across the ground. She made a long white streak, but nothing magical. Smiling softly, she put the chalk in a purse, picked up her candelabra, and continued down the hall. ------------------- Went clue-hunting. Found the remnants of a Rithmatic defense, which is unique to Scenario 2. Which is supported by Dive having a role which rules out 3. So if I understand correctly, and I'm paraphrasing my GM PM here, we have a 65% chance of being in scenario 2, and 17.5 chance I just got a clue from a different scenario? Ok we're probably in 2 then, as I got the same. And since Star got the unique one it almost guarantees it. Edited April 22 by ___ Misunderstanding
StrikerEZ he/him Posted April 22 Posted April 22 Okay. So if I’m understanding the rules correctly, if we’re in scenario 2, the odds of me getting my wrong clue (shared between 1 and 3) were about 12% (35% x 1/3). If we’re in scenario 1, the odds of me being right were about 28% (82.5% x 1/3). If we’re in scenario 1, the odds of Star getting the wrong clue were about 6% (17.5% x 1/3). If we’re in scenario 2, then the odds of them getting it right were about 22% (65% x 1/3). So I think Star is much less likely to be wrong here.
Mystic He/Him Posted April 22 Posted April 22 (edited) I just realized I’m being an idiot. I completely forgot about the possibility that Doc or Star is lying. Basically, what we’ve determined that it’s impossible for it to be scenario 3. However, we’re basing it to be scenario 2 on the clues we find. And in scenario 1, it would be a viable strategy to false claim clues. In other words, before I can consider this to be scenario 2, I have to consider an Elim team with at least one of Doc or Star. Right now we have three clues revealed, that’s not a lot, and easily skewed by a false clue. As such, unless other people want to claim a clue from scenario 2(I’d need a total of 4 people probably to feel sure) I need to get this out of the way. E!Doc: Doc said he explored the upstairs. I’m not sure if he’s lying or not. I haven’t checked. If he is Elim, that clears Mint and Fizz, as he was online for rollover. In this case, I suppose I could see an E!Doc, but I haven’t gotten the normal vibes from him in PMs, he’s been surprisingly quiet about asking me for information and opinions. This actually suggests E!Striker though, he initiated a vote on him, and asked us to join him. After I did though, he moved his to Dive. Could be him trying to bus a teammate and then shifting to Dive when he was put up as a viable tie. E!Star: I know that Star wasn’t lying about her exploration, but if she is Elim, she has no reason to, since she didn’t explore the basement she has nothing to fear about telling the truth about her search. I’ve mentioned my dislike about her timing and everything, but I don’t have much to extrapolate from this. So… I kinda have to decide which is more likely Scenario 2, or scenario 1 with an Elim in Doc or Star. E!Doc does seem to line up with some stuff, but I’m not getting E!Doc from PMs with him. E!Star could be it, but I’ve not seen anything about her teammates. I think for now I’m going to cancel my vote on Ver And hopefully some more people searched for Clues, because without them I can’t really put aside the possibility of E!Doc or E!Star Edit: I just really ____ also got the same clue Doc did. This is more in favor of the scenario 2 for me, but I’d still like another clue from scenario 2 to be sure. Continuing my thing of analysis E!______: I don’t have much here, like, at all. Edited April 22 by Mist.
Miss Fallen she/her Posted April 22 Posted April 22 Contributing to the pool of clues… K. Tims wandered room to room, bouncing a yo-yo carved of cremling shell traded from the Parshendi craftsmen of Roshar. Three people had already died in this House, if one counted the stranger. She needed a luckier yo-yo. K stopped in the sculpted archway leading to the next room. It was remarkably plain, save for a sacrificial dagger, stained with blood. Symbols on the wall and floor sparked her memory of a book read long ago, matching the descriptions of some kind of cult of “mysteries.” After noting everything in the room, K retraced her steps and left the archway. Much as she hated to leave a possible murder weapon loose in the House, this was just too creepy. And cultish. Cults made K nervous, though honestly, she thought they should make everyone nervous. With a shiver, she continued on through the House. Also went clue hunting; I presume this to be the Jeskeri paraphernalia, which is unique to scenario 1. At this point, I think we just need more clues to see whether we lean 1 or 2. 1
Qianweilian He/him Posted April 22 Posted April 22 I agree that we need more clues. I found a boot unfortunately, so I can't add to discussion about which scenario...
Akimikoisthecutest Posted April 22 Posted April 22 I found a spent bullet casing. It was an aluminum alloy
Conure1243 He/Him Posted April 22 Posted April 22 (edited) I was too busy to do anything yesterday, so I've got nothing today Edited April 22 by Conure1243
Doc12 Posted April 22 Posted April 22 (edited) So the clues so far are Rithmatic defense (Doc, Mippo) - unique to 2 Jeskeri paraphernalia (Fallen) - unique to 1 Voidlight gem (Star) - 2 and 3 Bullet casing (Akimiko) - 1 and 2 Spike (Striker ) 1 and 3 Other claimed actions: Qian - found boot Ver - found boot Mist - followed star Conure - did nothing So 4 clues that point to scenario 2, 2 which are unique and 2 that are shared. 3 to scenario 1, 1 unique and 2 shared. I'm inclined to believe in scenario 2 for now. It does track with the lack of coordination. If scenario 2, then it's likely but not certain that a ground floor explorer had the gun. The people who explored the ground floor may or may not have chosen to lie yesterday about this. I'm going to take a closer look at those who explored the ground floor when I get home from work. EDIT: I was also informed someone followed me last night. Anyone want to fess up to that and confirm my exploration? Edit 2: updated claims Edited April 22 by Doc12
Verdance he/him Posted April 22 Posted April 22 10 minutes ago, Doc12 said: So the clues so far are Rithmatic defense (Doc, Mippo) - unique to 2 Jeskeri paraphernalia (Fallen) - unique to 1 Voidlight gem (Star) - 2 and 3 Bullet casing (Akimimo) - 1 and 2 Spike (Striker ) 1 and 3 Other actions: Qian - found boot Mist - followed star So 4 clues that point to scenario 2, 2 which are unique and 2 that are shared. 3 to scenario 1, 1 unique and 2 shared. I'm inclined to believe in scenario 2 for now. It does track with the lack of coordination. If scenario 2, then it's likely but not certain that a ground floor explorer had the gun. The people who explored the ground floor may or may not have chosen to lie yesterday about this. I'm going to take a closer look at those who explored the ground floor when I get home from work. EDIT: I was also informed someone followed me last night. Anyone want to fess up to that and confirm my exploration? I found a boot as well
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