Melon Dingo Posted January 12 Posted January 12 31 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: I find it very difficult to believe the last 1-2 Saboteur roles does not include a Mistborn or Coinshot. If anything, I'm hesitant to believe there is a Smoker Saboteur. It's more likely that the potential Smoker is a Mistborn who rolled Smoker already, unless I have missed evidence that points against this. My only thing here is MB rolling Smoker C1 is pretty rough for the elims as well isn't it? Sure they theoretically get an extra kill at some point but it only gives a 3/8 chance every cycle that you will have what you need for any one threat. If the CSs are both village, which doesn't make sense to me, then N1 assuming 5 elims any 1 coinshot has roughly a 28% chance of hitting an elim. Same with Seekers and that number only gets higher as the game goes on. For instance right now... or well... right now the chances are actually pretty low (1/14 I think) but that's because this game has been pretty one sided xD The only way 2 v!CS makes sense is if either there is a e!Lurcher or it's assumed that v!Lurchers will inevitably protect elims at some point. But if that was the case, we started the game with the double protect rule being valid meaning many people were likely just going to self protect over and over as I think that's the optimal strategy. Got distracted with work I think I had more thoughts but gonna end it here. I've gotten into the practice again of not eating until about 6-7 at night again and that's not good... Gonna do that now.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 12 Posted January 12 The thing is, the elim team does not really require a Smoker if we don't have a Seeker. The only way we can confirm that they have a Smoker is if we can confirm Dingo is good. v!Dingo implies v!Zebra AND e!Smoker, which is why I'm asking for a scan on them. @Onyx Flamingo
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Mint Heron said: Agreed. Also uh my GOAT won but may have tapped someone's arse (as in tapped out on it) to do it so there will be no end of jokes but holy ring IQ Like I think it's just worth looking at where they were. Moving Meerkat up from Would Vote tier is an interesting strategy btw since both Kanga and Meerkat are Elims that Croc did that for. Ohhhh interesting, Croc has Gecko down twice. No wonder I was going nuts wondering how Croc hit 20. Interesting that Gecko is in two categories. Cham and Lion are two ? here - of the two I'd say probably worse on Lion than Cham. Cham's current refusal to play ball feels a bit V!leaning. Voting behaviour still makes me positive on Gecko and Axl. Rhino with the Meerkat swing is positive on Rhino so I'm ok with this. Dingo... IMO Dingo gets D2 cred, acknowledge the theory, and respect it enough Dingo is not greened again. I'm leaning towards one more Elim in top tier (potentially) or in bottom. I think it's where the numbers skew. True, it makes sense he moved both Kanga and Meerkat up as both have the roles that are the most dangerous to be stolen by v!Kandras. Yeah, interesting that Gecko is on there twice and agree, Dingo did make Iguana a viable third counterwagon by the end of D2, so that does give me pause 10 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said: My only thing here is MB rolling Smoker C1 is pretty rough for the elims as well isn't it? Sure they theoretically get an extra kill at some point but it only gives a 3/8 chance every cycle that you will have what you need for any one threat. If the CSs are both village, which doesn't make sense to me, then N1 assuming 5 elims any 1 coinshot has roughly a 28% chance of hitting an elim. Same with Seekers and that number only gets higher as the game goes on. For instance right now... or well... right now the chances are actually pretty low (1/14 I think) but that's because this game has been pretty one sided xD The only way 2 v!CS makes sense is if either there is a e!Lurcher or it's assumed that v!Lurchers will inevitably protect elims at some point. But if that was the case, we started the game with the double protect rule being valid meaning many people were likely just going to self protect over and over as I think that's the optimal strategy. Got distracted with work I think I had more thoughts but gonna end it here. I've gotten into the practice again of not eating until about 6-7 at night again and that's not good... Gonna do that now. I guess if there has to be an e!CS, I'm probably leaning towards it being Cham/Lion and the elims just got unlucky that the one who got it didn't show up for the first 2 cycles
Taupe Gecko Posted January 12 Posted January 12 1 hour ago, Opal Lion said: There are 5 Lurcher claims between the following designated figures: "Ivory Dragonfly", "Indigo Weasel", "Quartz Zebra", "Violet Axolotl", and "Peal Chameleon". I would assume at least one of these claims are either false or include a Saboteur Lurcher. I struggle to believe all these claims could be truthful and Loyalist, for my own sanity. The Pearl Chameleon claim is fake Wait guys if we really want to chase the idea of e!CS then who claimed to have Seeked Toucan again? Cause there could be some lying there Also, would TUO/Jo be the kind of people to create a ridiculously strong village team and a ridiculously weak elim team but with a ridiculous amount of members?
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 12 Posted January 12 15 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: The thing is, the elim team does not really require a Smoker if we don't have a Seeker. The only way we can confirm that they have a Smoker is if we can confirm Dingo is good. v!Dingo implies v!Zebra AND e!Smoker, which is why I'm asking for a scan on them. @Onyx Flamingo Supporting this. Even if Dingo is smoked, that in itself would be informative
Melon Dingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 30 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: The Pearl Chameleon claim is fake Wait guys if we really want to chase the idea of e!CS then who claimed to have Seeked Toucan again? Cause there could be some lying there Also, would TUO/Jo be the kind of people to create a ridiculously strong village team and a ridiculously weak elim team but with a ridiculous amount of members? How do you know? Flamingo Seeked Toucan Ummm I think Jo would. Jo is a bit Kayana sometimes (said with love, Jo). I don't know TUM very well but based on the interactions we've had I wouldn't place it out of the realm of possibility. It is TYRIAN after all (shame on you all for forgetting to capitalize the last however many number of times. I also just remembered xD)
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 2 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said: "Engaging predictive routines..." "Prediction: callsign:Ivory Dragonfly is a Loyalist." "Prediction: callsign:Oxblood Beagle is a Loyalist." "Prediction: callsign:Mint Heron is a Loyalist." "Prediction: callsign:Onyx Flamingo is a Saboteur." "Prediction: Saboteur risk tolerance is high." "Prediction: Saboteurs highly prioritized distancing. Saboteur votes highly scattered on day one, with minimal accumulation." "Prediction validated. If pattern holds, the following suspect pool is evidenced:" "Sunburst Toucan, Sapphire Elephant, Magenta Albatross, Quartz Zebra, Violet Axolotl, Scarlet Octopus." "Unfortunately, this suspect pool remains large. Fortunately, there are additional days to examine." "Again, high scattering and lack of self-preservation instinct is noteworthy. Meat-brains are known to be emotional, and thus the expected response after losing a tie would be to fear and avoid one. However, votes for callsign:Saffron Iguana developed fairly late." "Prediction: the Saboteurs were unable to respond in time." "Prediction partially invalidated. While this may be true of callsign:Salmon Meerkat it was not true of Callsign:Saffron Iguana, who was present and declined to switch to callsign:Scarlet Octopus. Callsign:Scarlet Octopus also declined to switch to callsign:Saffron Iguana when endangered." "It is acknowledged that callsign:Scarlet Octopus seems to have exterminated a Saboteur Rioter. This may alter the calculus somewhat. However, on the basis of Day Two voting, collusion between callsign:Scarlet Octopus and callsign:Saffron Iguana appears plausible. This does not contradict earlier suspect pool." "Multiple irrelevant Soothing attempts seem to have been made." "Callsign: Salmon Meerkat does not vote, though lack of verbosity in general is a potential explanation. This unit still does not understand the reasons for the execution of callsign: Salmon Meerkat, though it is not complaining. This unit will continue to assume that its strategem of begging chromium ferrings for luck played out." "Callsign:Opal Lion singing callsign:Salmon Meerkat's praises does not seem to have aged well." "Predictive routines deactivated. This unit will take additional cogitation cycles before arriving at a Conclusion." "Claim: this unit is a Saboteur Tineye." "Acknowledged." "Query Response: Total validation deemed unnecessary, due to redundancy with step two. The proposed course of action is that they investigate different individuals." "Query Response: Coinshots are well-regarded for their investigative faculties. These investigative faculties have the side-effect of terminating their subjects." "Claim: this unit is a Loyalist Tineye." There are no tineyes besides mistborns, because PMs are a passive effect. 48 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: The thing is, the elim team does not really require a Smoker if we don't have a Seeker. The only way we can confirm that they have a Smoker is if we can confirm Dingo is good. v!Dingo implies v!Zebra AND e!Smoker, which is why I'm asking for a scan on them. @Onyx Flamingo Noted. 39 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: The Pearl Chameleon claim is fake Wait guys if we really want to chase the idea of e!CS then who claimed to have Seeked Toucan again? Cause there could be some lying there Also, would TUO/Jo be the kind of people to create a ridiculously strong village team and a ridiculously weak elim team but with a ridiculous amount of members? Me. It was me. 7 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said: How do you know? Flamingo Seeked Toucan Ummm I think Jo would. Jo is a bit Kayana sometimes (said with love, Jo). I don't know TUM very well but based on the interactions we've had I wouldn't place it out of the realm of possibility. It is TYRIAN after all (shame on you all for forgetting to capitalize the last however many number of times. I also just remembered xD) TYRIAN? Yes i did!
Taupe Gecko Posted January 13 Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: Me. It was me. 10 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said: Okay Possible Toucan/Flamingo team WAIT GUYS IS IT A GOOD IDEA TO JUST SEEK BOTH COINSHOTS?
Melon Dingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Just now, Oxblood Beagle said: Leaning towards No Kill Wait, but we're winning, why not? Personally I vote for Gecko Bloodbath
Taupe Gecko Posted January 13 Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said: How do you know? About Cham’s Lurcher claim? Cause they told us and later changed to Tineye, which is also fake… BLOODBATH
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Melon Dingo said: Wait, but we're winning, why not? Personally I vote for Gecko Bloodbath It'd be fun if we ended this game with as few villagers dead probably something that I haven't really seen before
Melon Dingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: It'd be fun if we ended this game with as few villagers dead probably something that I haven't really seen before Ok ok you make a good point... but WHAT IF and here me out here... we STILL end with as few dead as possible BECAUSE the LURCHERS have 99.9% accuracy? We could have no one dead AND hit the record for most lurches or whatever WHY am I CAPITALIZING words strANGly? No idea I just feel like it :P Edited January 13 by Melon Dingo Removed an extra space. Iykyk. I pinky swear not AI
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said: Ok ok you make a good point... but WHAT IF and here me out here... we STILL end with as few dead as possible BECAUSE the LURCHERS have 99.9% accuracy? We could have no one dead AND hit the record for most lurches or whatever WHY am I CAPITALIZING words strANGly? No idea I just feel like it :P I mean, it would be better if the coinshots also didn't end up shooting village, which I think might happen since I don't think we have super a consensus on who among who's left is elim
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 hour ago, Melon Dingo said: 6-7 Brain r o t Coinshots are well able to investigate the present suspect pool. Terminate. The side subjects will take additional cogitation cycles. Lack of verbosity. Onyx Flamingo validation required of Opal Lion, Pearl Chameleon.
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Ivory Dragonfly said: Brain r o t Coinshots are well able to investigate the present suspect pool. Terminate. The side subjects will take additional cogitation cycles. Lack of verbosity. Onyx Flamingo validation required of Opal Lion, Pearl Chameleon. So should I seek @Melon Dingo, @Opal Lion, or @Pearl Chameleon? Those are the main contenders, I think.
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 13 Posted January 13 5 hours ago, Opal Lion said: If I'm being completely "fr" as they say, I am not the worst shot here because I do not impact accidentally shooting a strong Loyalist role, in case you want to clear the chance that I'm the Saboteur Smoker. Quote Heron: I'd genuinely like an answer by end of C3 because I think it affects how we should be playing the game, depending on whether the refusal to do anything about those two players suggests they are actually not inactives and are (somehow) lurking and sending in orders without filter pressure or not. Lion last logged in on 4th Jan so I'm guessing that Lion is a genuine inactive but Pearl Chameleon has a 7th Jan 1159hrs login which makes me feel that there might be something going on there I'm probably leaning towards it being Cham
Scarlet Octopus Posted January 13 Posted January 13 39 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: So should I seek @Melon Dingo, @Opal Lion, or @Pearl Chameleon? Lion or Dingo. But I'm leaning toward Dingo, just based on activity
Violet Axolotl Posted January 13 Posted January 13 46 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: So should I seek @Melon Dingo, @Opal Lion, or @Pearl Chameleon? Those are the main contenders, I think. I feel like cham or lion Edit: Destruction It'll increase our chances of winning, assuming there are only a few elims left.
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 At some point here someone is going to confuse a Coinshot into shooting a Seek target Guys we really need to disaggregate both target pools if you want night shooting @Onyx Flamingo @Melon Dingo @Scarlet Octopus @Sunburst Toucan Dingo, Flam: Not asking you to declare but more asking if you guys would consider steering clear of CS targets to avoid wasting tempo. Honestly at this stage of the game I lean No Kill but am ok with a shot in Lion/Cham (sorry guys) and would like a scan in Rhino/Dingo/Axl/Weasel. Particularly Dingo since V!Dingo guarantees scan integrity. FWIW, if I've forgotten: @Plum Rhinoceros Who did you Soothe? If a Seeker finds a Smoked target, then we know the Elims have at least two members left, because a Smoker cannot Smoke and kill at the same time. @The Unknown Medallion / @A Jo in the Bush is this correct? I see y'all turned Smoking into a turn-by-turn voluntary thing.
Melon Dingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Mint Heron said: At some point here someone is going to confuse a Coinshot into shooting a Seek target Guys we really need to disaggregate both target pools if you want night shooting @Onyx Flamingo @Melon Dingo @Scarlet Octopus @Sunburst Toucan Dingo, Flam: Not asking you to declare but more asking if you guys would consider steering clear of CS targets to avoid wasting tempo. Honestly at this stage of the game I lean No Kill but am ok with a shot in Lion/Cham (sorry guys) and would like a scan in Rhino/Dingo/Axl/Weasel. Particularly Dingo since V!Dingo guarantees scan integrity. FWIW, if I've forgotten: @Plum Rhinoceros Who did you Soothe? If a Seeker finds a Smoked target, then we know the Elims have at least two members left, because a Smoker cannot Smoke and kill at the same time. @The Unknown Medallion / @A Jo in the Bush is this correct? I see y'all turned Smoking into a turn-by-turn voluntary thing. Stormseeker the Observant casually walked past Zense. Smiling while listening to the music. There was a certain magic in music. One that filled one's soul in a way not even Breath could when short on them. "Aye Captain, no use in wasting a Seek, in my opinion" he replied to the question and kept walking. Stormseeker considered, as he was out of Breath yet again, asking around to see if anyone could help him. He didn't need another for another couple days yet but it was always safer to get ahead of these things. That said, now didn't feel like the moment to interrupt the music... As he had that thought he tripped on a shoelace and tried to catch himself with Zense's baliset.
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Ninjaed by Dingo but we go on Like my main problem is that if your Seek targets are Dingo, Lion, Cham, and y'all want night shooting, who tf your CSes gonna shoot? Rhino? Axl? Why are we shooting less suspect people and scanning more suspect people? That's just perverse. That's why I think we really have two main options: A. Go for a no kill for tonight and Seekers freely pick targets among those suggested so far, or: B. Accept the Seekers scanning in <Dingo, Rhino, Axl> because scanning Cham and Lion while calmly shooting Rhino, Axl, or Dingo as other suspects is just perverse. Maximum lethality should stay at the bottom of the PoE, not start at a higher/"somewhat more Villagery" tier. I'm pro-No Kill tonight because of the coordination issues but just want to avoid wasted scans and shots.
Melon Dingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 How did I ninja you when you were the previous post and your new post says the same thing as the last post in different words
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Edit: Basically in B world the killable targets are always just Cham and Lion (sorry.) Just now, Melon Dingo said: How did I ninja you when you were the previous post and your new post says the same thing as the last post in different words I just wanted to spell out the two sets of options more clearly tbh. Partly because I don't want wasted scans but also feel you/Weasel etc are solveable and if we don't point out the issues, we get a pointless hero shoot that's counterproductive because we have a good monopoly on successful NK blocks atm.
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