Opal Lion Posted January 13 Posted January 13 NOTICE TO @Mint Heron 1. You are officially in charge of continuing my studies if I am murdered. [ALERT: There are 3156 new files in your inbox]
Taupe Gecko Posted January 13 Posted January 13 29 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Who did you Soothe? They claimed Zebra All right guys don’t have time for RP tonight (sleepover) but I wish you all the best and hope I don’t die Wait I’m gonna be online tomorrow morning Lol Night
Taupe Gecko Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Nvm I can RP a tiny bit H.E.A.R.T.H’s cogs and gears trembled as he reached to charge himself for the final time in the day. If he had eyes in this form, he would shut them; if given a choice, he would step away. Yet the people of the TYRIAN deserved better. And he had to know the truth. For a while, the ship was silent; but it was never silent for H.E.A.R.T.H. There was always the hum of the engines, the steady reassurance that the spores continued to function. But even that was beginning to falter. For a while, H.E.A.R.T.H waited. His hands would not take the final step. He was a coward. He knew it, oh if only he could accept it. But there was no recognition for cowardice, not even a silent reward. The thought of simply not charging crossed H.E.A.R.T.H’s mind - but he dismissed jt just as quickly. He would have to be brave. He had been brave, in the past. H.E.A.R.T.H thought of the soldier who trecked through damnation for passion, never knowing when respite would arrive. He thought of the man who ran into battle, prepared to die because there was so much more important than his life. He thought of the boy scared to leap the gorge, but who did it anyway, for that girl’s smile - for her hand on the other side. He thought of Zense, of Levin, of Echo. They needed him. They needed him strong. He would see them on the other side. And so H.E.A.R.T.H plugged himself in, and everything went dark. Dark, and then the haunting sound of a whistle arrived.
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 10 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: NOTICE TO @Mint Heron 1. You are officially in charge of continuing my studies if I am murdered. [ALERT: There are 3156 new files in your inbox] Yeah, sorry Lion. I feel like your non-distro posts should be readable, but I'm also functioning on low battery rn, and in a game where your predecessor/you had a voting record, I would probably feel more confident on assigning you a bracket but rn it's just a mass of shrug. Similar for Cham really. Accepting DF's point about the Cham timing and potential for being the Smoker contact. Wrt whoever who suggested that Ele Smoked Croc... I think the main issue is that Villagers tend to be more reluctant to hit the Smoke button due to scan worries, except in endgames. If anything, Araris, Wyrm, Drake, myself, and a few other Tyrian GMs have been - wow this sentence is completely not deanonymising at all - fighting a losing war for a while in terms of trying to incentivise Smoking from Villagers. It's not impossible, but it would surprise me regardless. 12 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: They claimed Zebra Smart. Safe target + at least we know no Smoker targeted Zebra in the Day. Would've asked you to do a net-zero Riot if I had brain power but I didn't that night so sorry about it. 4 hours ago, Melon Dingo said: The only way 2 v!CS makes sense is if either there is a e!Lurcher or it's assumed that v!Lurchers will inevitably protect elims at some point. But if that was the case, we started the game with the double protect rule being valid meaning many people were likely just going to self protect over and over as I think that's the optimal strategy. The flip side/corollary to me is that IDK if the infinite self-protect rule gets revoked if the Elims had a Coinshot, because prior to this, Jo and TUM ruled that Lurchers can die from being double-tapped. So if the model is they will always self-protect, then you just get coordination for a double-tap = Villager dies. (Noteworthy that the odds the v!CS will coordinate are lower because you have to claim, get past the Spiderman pointing, and also, PM odds are low because while you do have four Mistborn (sorry if I got the numbers wrong, tired), metals don't repeat in this game.) That + not much Smoking power/incentive Village side and two Elim Seekers seems to point to, in an E!CS world, high capacity for surgical strikes, on the self-protect model. I guess I'm saying I agree with you tentatively about the E!Lurcher, I simply think that we can't assume that the E!Lurcher in question actually declared their role accurately, which means that the target in question in this case may not even be within the four Lurcher pool. (More thinking aloud than replying Dingo at this juncture lol sorry Dingo) : It looks like we are left with only so many worlds to make sense of this. A. One CS is Evil -> Either Octo actually gunned down a teammate (goddamn, Octo!), or Flam is lying and falsely cleared Toucan. (The main counterintuitive things that happened in this world are E!Octo shooting their team's thread control guy, or E!Toucan in this world actually upping and claiming to Octo before Flam claimed the scan. There's a side-world where E!Octo told E!Flam who then claimed the scan.) B. One Lurcher is Evil -> Either DF, Axl, Zebra, or Weasel is Evil. Alternatively, someone not in the Lurcher pool is the Evil Lurcher, who simply didn't declare their role. I think at this point it would need to be in <Beagle, Heron, Toucan, Albatross, Lion, Chameleon, Dingo, Flam.> There is a very weird world where Meerkat is actually the kandra who ate Kanga and flipped Seeker, and Flam simply claimed their teammate's scans FWIW ( @Oxblood Beagle ) which gives us a Flam + Zebra solve for last Elims. Flam being willing to scan tonight puts a bit of a pin in this since Flam either has to claim a scan on someone who got killed, or you know. Heron is easily resolved if I die tonight or, y'know, since I'm having a midnight snack on Meerkat. Lion, Cham, Dingo, Toucan are all theoretical places since Toucan technically was scanned by Flam. However, Toucan's claim is cross-validated by their behaviour, claim and Ocho. Beagle is #1 Villager at this point, Mistborn scan, but theoretically no validation of roleclaim. Wouldn't bet on this though. Tross is tied to Beagle due to Beagle's scan, which Tross confirms. (I ruled out Gecko and Rhino because we saw the Soothe today meaning Rhino cannot be a Lurcher, and Gecko did the Tineye thing. It's theoretically possible Gecko's teammate put it in, but yeah, it requires a second teammate within this pool probably.) In the DF, Axl, Zebra, or Weasel set, on the assumption the Zebra scan is accurate since we received it from Dingo and Meerkat, we should really be looking in <Axl, Weasel> before DF. I would actually slightly put Weasel before Axl due to Weasel's Octo crusade and Croc's behaviour on Axl, but yeah. I think this is it for me, my brain is just not braining anymore. Need sleep.
Taupe Gecko Posted January 13 Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: There is a very weird world where Meerkat is actually the kandra who ate Kanga and flipped Seeker, and Flam simply claimed their teammate's scans FWIW Hadn’t thought about that but does make sense Sleep
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Taupe Gecko said: Hadn’t thought about that but does make sense Sleep I have work in a bit so it probably isn't happening but need sleep as in I will not try to get my brain to make this make sense anymore. Edited to add: Actually ok actual thought: it has to be an E!Smoker/Mistborn if true. I keep forgetting Smoking is Turn-based in this game. No Village Smoker would be Smoking at Night - it's counterproductive. You would Smoke in the Day to prevent Emotional Allomancy shenanigans. Edited January 13 by Mint Heron
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 13 Posted January 13 "Forecasting potential distribution of allomantic abilities..." "Assumption: the Saboteurs assembled their team intentionally and with purpose. It is not a lackadaisical assortment of random mistings. Each individual serves a purpose within the whole." "Caveat: humans are all insane and ascribing logical motives to them is playing with fire." "Multiple Saboteur Seekers suggests a team specification optimized for surgically eliminating high-value targets. Obviously, there are plenty such targets to go around, but the main synergy potential this unit detects is through cooperation with Saboteur Kandra. The Seekers identify valuable targets, and then the Kandra inherit high-value abilities." "Prediction: there are multiple Saboteur Kandra, preferably with higher generation. (Sub-Prediction: There is or was a Saboteur Kandra of generation 420.)" "This larcenous team composition functions less optimally without a Seeker but continues to function. Viability is greatly reduced without Kandra support." "Theoretically, a Saboteur team of multiple Seekers and multiple Kandra could hold its own against multiple Loyalist Coinshots and Lurchers, mainly by way of pilfering these abilities for additional firepower." "The 'swing' attribute of this composition is maximal, but this unit increasingly doubts that the Saboteur team was assembled to avert chaos." "Forecast complete. In the future, this unit may reset to explore alternative forecast branches." "Claim: this unit is a Loyalist Seeker." 1
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said: "Prediction: there are multiple Saboteur Kandra, preferably with higher generation. (Sub-Prediction: There is or was a Saboteur Kandra of generation 420.)" Am curious if this is a slip or if this implies that Cham isn't a kandra. Generation numbers go downward, I had to clarify this because 69 killed me.
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 12 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said: "Forecasting potential distribution of allomantic abilities..." "Assumption: the Saboteurs assembled their team intentionally and with purpose. It is not a lackadaisical assortment of random mistings. Each individual serves a purpose within the whole." "Caveat: humans are all insane and ascribing logical motives to them is playing with fire." "Multiple Saboteur Seekers suggests a team specification optimized for surgically eliminating high-value targets. Obviously, there are plenty such targets to go around, but the main synergy potential this unit detects is through cooperation with Saboteur Kandra. The Seekers identify valuable targets, and then the Kandra inherit high-value abilities." "Prediction: there are multiple Saboteur Kandra, preferably with higher generation. (Sub-Prediction: There is or was a Saboteur Kandra of generation 420.)" "This larcenous team composition functions less optimally without a Seeker but continues to function. Viability is greatly reduced without Kandra support." "Theoretically, a Saboteur team of multiple Seekers and multiple Kandra could hold its own against multiple Loyalist Coinshots and Lurchers, mainly by way of pilfering these abilities for additional firepower." "The 'swing' attribute of this composition is maximal, but this unit increasingly doubts that the Saboteur team was assembled to avert chaos." "Forecast complete. In the future, this unit may reset to explore alternative forecast branches." "Claim: this unit is a Loyalist Seeker." How can we trust your 3rd claim? I am considering Seeking you purely so I can finally figure out who you are.
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 6 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: How can we trust your 3rd claim? I am considering Seeking you purely so I can finally figure out who you are. If not already implied, Cham has said they will be attaching a random claim to every post. They don't want to claim. At this point we either scan them or resolve them with CS, or you know, do the normal reads thing, though Cham and Lion are coming in at a disadvantage.
Opal Lion Posted January 13 Posted January 13 [You notice a new alert on the terminal] NOTICE FOR THE CREW OF THE SS TYRIAN 1. If you wish to resolve my role, technically the correct play should be to shoot me and scan a role claim since I've claimed a vanilla Loyalist role and so am not as useful to the Loyalists. From your perspective either (a) I am a lying Saboteur, in which case you'd like me to die, or (b) I am genuinely just a vanilla Loyalist. If I were a Loyalist with a role, I would've claimed it already since lying about it would be foolish here. (This is my way of saying it's all good if you want to shoot me in this situation but I will haunt you from the grave if you do not take responsibility for my studies. I cannot lose hundreds of hours of work to this!!) 2. You (designation "Mint Heron") will still be in charge of furthering my research in my permanent absence, should this occur. Failing this, I believe figure H.E.A.R.T.H aka "Taupe Gecko" would be suitable for this duty. 3. I would prefer to stay alive as I have not finished reading the latest dissertation from the leading Rosharan scholars. 4. Again, I still believe the current known Saboteur roles imply the remaining 1-2 Saboteurs should have stronger roles, including one with firepower potential (whether this is Mistborn or Coinshot). Otherwise we would not be in this situation. You would have a group of Loyalists with enough potential firepower to level a small space station. No smart group of Saboteurs would ever dare to attack.
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: 4. Again, I still believe the current known Saboteur roles imply the remaining 1-2 Saboteurs should have stronger roles, including one with firepower potential (whether this is Mistborn or Coinshot). Otherwise we would not be in this situation. You would have a group of Loyalists with enough potential firepower to level a small space station. No smart group of Saboteurs would ever dare to attack. How do you resolve: A. Ocho shooting E!Croc B. Toucan being scanned by Flam Like, fundamentally Mistborn get Steel once and then can only get it again after the full eight cycle thing has been cycled. From your POV if one of them must have firepower potential, Mistborn is just a oneshot unless the game is predicted to end later than 8 cycles, in which case it is a twoshot (it is not going past C16 at 20 players and no GM models for that kind of length.) Either you think there is a third Coinshot hiding somewhere, or you think A or B is more likely to have our last Elim, right?
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 13 Posted January 13 23 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Generation numbers go downward "Human, I am not sure I comprehend the meaning of these words. Any finite set of real numbers may be sorted in descending order. How is this relevant?" "Query, do you intend to communicate that they 'go downward' by a fixed interval of one? That would make more sense." 24 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: How can we trust your 3rd claim? I am considering Seeking you purely so I can finally figure out who you are. "Meatbag, this unit has not requested your trust, and has no interest in performing transactions to obtain it. "This unit merely wishes to serve. This unit has observed that humans derive great joy from receiving claims. This unit has concluded that a single claim would be inadequate." "Claim: this unit is a Loyalist Smoker.
Melon Dingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mint Heron said: Wrt whoever who suggested that Ele Smoked Croc... I think the main issue is that Villagers tend to be more reluctant to hit the Smoke button due to scan worries, except in endgames. If anything, Araris, Wyrm, Drake, myself, and a few other Tyrian GMs have been - wow this sentence is completely not deanonymising at all - fighting a losing war for a while in terms of trying to incentivise Smoking from Villagers. It's not impossible, but it would surprise me regardless. wait, you aren't Araris, Wyrm or Drake??? My mind is blown edit darn shard didn't tell me I was ninjad by 20 posts Edited January 13 by Melon Dingo
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 Just now, Melon Dingo said: wait, you aren't Araris, Wyrm or Drake??? My mind is blown I'm not bloodthirsty enough for it, no
Opal Lion Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Mint Heron said: How do you resolve: A. Ocho shooting E!Croc B. Toucan being scanned by Flam Like, fundamentally Mistborn get Steel once and then can only get it again after the full eight cycle thing has been cycled. From your POV if one of them must have firepower potential, Mistborn is just a oneshot unless the game is predicted to end later than 8 cycles, in which case it is a twoshot (it is not going past C16 at 20 players and no GM models for that kind of length.) Either you think there is a third Coinshot hiding somewhere, or you think A or B is more likely to have our last Elim, right? [You receive a personalized response] MESSAGE TO "MINT HERON" 1. Ah that's for you to figure out. I have important reading that cannot wait on such trivial matters. 2. In short, I think yes. It would be a good idea to clear the possibility of "Onyx Flamingo" and "Sunburst Toucan" potentially being allied Saboteurs. Given figure "Mauve Crocodile" died on the first night, I think it is fairly unlikely "Scarlet Octopus" shot a teammate (a little early for a play like that, they would've needed to think they were absolutely doomed as a team to pull that on night 1 in my opinion). 3. The Saboteurs get a standard night kill so I could see the case of having just a Mistborn be true, I suppose? If I really squint and ignore the fact that the Loyalists are quite strong in comparison for most scenarios involving this. [The message is signed at the bottom. You think it says "Dusk"]
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Opal Lion said: 3. The Saboteurs get a standard night kill so I could see the case of having just a Mistborn be true, I suppose? If I really squint and ignore the fact that the Loyalists are quite strong in comparison for most scenarios involving this. It does seem kinda weak for an additional firepower hypothesis, hence my question. 2 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: 2. In short, I think yes. It would be a good idea to clear the possibility of "Onyx Flamingo" and "Sunburst Toucan" potentially being allied Saboteurs. Given figure "Mauve Crocodile" died on the first night, I think it is fairly unlikely "Scarlet Octopus" shot a teammate (a little early for a play like that, they would've needed to think they were absolutely doomed as a team to pull that on night 1 in my opinion). Suppose Flam does turn out to be Village - what's your read of the situation then? Where do we go from there? (This assumes that v!Flam entails v!Toucan which I think is reasonable enough.)
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 hour ago, Mint Heron said: There is a very weird world where Meerkat is actually the kandra who ate Kanga and flipped Seeker, and Flam simply claimed their teammate's scans FWIW ( @Oxblood Beagle ) which gives us a Flam + Zebra solve for last Elims. Flam being willing to scan tonight puts a bit of a pin in this since Flam either has to claim a scan on someone who got killed, or you know. True, that is certainly a world. It would require some insane-level of acting from Flamingo and I think their actions, at least in end of D2 plus how they went about approaching their strong read on Toucan, makes me think that they are village
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: True, that is certainly a world. It would require some insane-level of acting from Flamingo and I think their actions, at least in end of D2 plus how they went about approaching their strong read on Toucan, makes me think that they are village Yeah. It's not my instinctive world, which I think entails we are looking more at a missing Lurcher/slipped Lurcher hunt at present. If I've missed it, where's your first take on where we should be looking?
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 13 Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: It does seem kinda weak for an additional firepower hypothesis, hence my question. Suppose Flam does turn out to be Village - what's your read of the situation then? Where do we go from there? (This assumes that v!Flam entails v!Toucan which I think is reasonable enough.) Well, I have a pretty strong v!read on Flamingo. Seems like a trustworthy guy, i think its a good idea in the long run to trust them
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 1 minute ago, Onyx Flamingo said: Well, I have a pretty strong v!read on Flamingo. Seems like a trustworthy guy, i think its a good idea in the long run to trust them I'd agree but I think I'm curious about what Lion's worldview is. I don't disagree we're all stuck with a fairly unintuitive distro but it's interesting that Lion and Cham almost have opposite views about the direction to go in. And, as one of the guys suggesting the CS just smite Lion or Cham, I think it's worth hearing them out or finding out the nuts and bolts of their views, especially in the world they flip Village. If it's a PH, they've put effort into showing up and I kind of respect and don't wanna waste that either. Edited to add: 1 minute ago, Mint Heron said: I'd agree but I think I'm curious about what Lion's worldview is. I don't disagree we're all stuck with a fairly unintuitive distro but it's interesting that Lion and Cham almost have opposite views about the direction to go in. To be fair, this is true of nearly half the game, judging from the fact we've had a train on Ocho for the last two days.
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 9 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Yeah. It's not my instinctive world, which I think entails we are looking more at a missing Lurcher/slipped Lurcher hunt at present. If I've missed it, where's your first take on where we should be looking? I guess I always like to fall back on D1 since that has been quite an informative day. Albatross is my green check, so that's 100% never to be exe'd (unless we have some weird hidden Godfather role or something) Knowing that Kangaroo is Seeker, I wouldn't be initially looking at Gecko, Dragonfly, Weasel, and you. I think the only world that that makes sense is where it really counts on Crocodile being able to Riot before rollover, and that's such a risky move to make when losing Kangaroo would lead to the village potentially gaining the advantage (since the elims do not have any certainty of their Kandra being the higher generation) I don't think Axolotl makes sense to be elim because there's a contradiction in that Croc was pushing them while neither Iguana nor Kangaroo committed to taking them out. I don't think Iguana really would have started a counterwagon on a fellow elim after moving off Kangaroo since Elephant was another option right there to vote. Flamingo and Dingo are both center pieces here. Flamingo is vouching for Toucan while Dingo is vouching for Zebra. Both Toucan and Zebra didn't have strong D1s, so they're only ever elim in a world where the person vouching them is also elim. Between Flamingo and Dingo, if someone has to be an elim, I think it'd make more sense for it behavior-wise to be Dingo Rhinoceros also had a not very strong D1, but has been better at least in the following days. So, I guess that leaves me at the same PoE of <Rhinoceros, Dingo, Chameleon, and Lion>. That's probably in the order of how I would approach it, where Lion is the person I want to look at most @Onyx Flamingo What was your generation number as kandra again?
Mint Heron Posted January 13 Posted January 13 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: @Onyx Flamingo What was your generation number as kandra again? I am going to note in advance that something might happen here that might bring suspicion down on Flam. If so, y'all might wanna bookmark and come back to this Edited to add: I am not saying what it is at this point for reasons, I simply also do not want someone getting twitchy and murking Flam overnight just because I wasn't there to point it out. 13 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Between Flamingo and Dingo, if someone has to be an elim, I think it'd make more sense for it behavior-wise to be Dingo Flam is technically the pivotal vote that turned Ig into a viable train on D2. That to me does carry some weight unless we feel that was bus point. 13 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: (since the elims do not have any certainty of their Kandra being the higher generation) The only world I can see this being true (relative certainty) is if one of their kandra started with a single digit < 5 gen. But relying on Croc can also be risky because how do they know the Villager in question isn't Smoking? With Smoking being Turn-based, there is absolutely no reason to not Smoke during the Day to just remove Emotional Allomancy shenanigans. (To me this almost implies it only works if they're risk-happy or if Croc is Rioting off a teammate's vote.) Edited to add: In fact, maybe we're forgetting Elim fog-of-war. If you're an Elim team with 2 Seekers at the start, isn't your instinct to believe the Village might have a decent chunk of Smokers for balance? @Plum Rhinoceros @Oxblood Beagle - Do they dare to simply assume Rioting just...works in that landscape? 13 minutes ago, Oxblood Beagle said: Rhinoceros also had a not very strong D1, but has been better at least in the following days. Rhino I vaguely recall as being one of the pivotal votes on Meerkat but need to go back and check. I'm curious also (lol sorry) of your view on the D3 voting since to me, it was relatively stable on Ocho and I'm slightly inclined (respect the problem and Lion's+Weasel's instincts but) to think it was V/E. In which case our Meerkat CW taking off is already pretty wild as it is. I think in most worlds if it is 1-2 Elims left, the effect size will be quite small, so it may not be as informative, but I'm wondering if anyone particularly acquits themselves well on D3 and I think that's just mostly Rhino since there's separate reasons for most of the participants. Edited January 13 by Mint Heron
Oxblood Beagle Posted January 13 Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: The only world I can see this being true (relative certainty) is if one of their kandra started with a single digit < 5 gen. But relying on Croc can also be risky because how do they know the Villager in question isn't Smoking? With Smoking being Turn-based, there is absolutely no reason to not Smoke during the Day to just remove Emotional Allomancy shenanigans. (To me this almost implies it only works if they're risk-happy or if Croc is Rioting off a teammate's vote.) True, and I think what we know of the elim team is that they were to some extent being risk-averse by trying to prevent both Kangaroo and Meerkat to be viable counterwagons, so I feel that this would be inconsistent with their prior behavior 5 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: Rhino I vaguely recall as being one of the pivotal votes on Meerkat but need to go back and check. I'm curious also (lol sorry) of your view on the D3 voting since to me, it was relatively stable on Ocho and I'm slightly inclined (respect the problem and Lion's+Weasel's instincts but) to think it was V/E. In which case our Meerkat CW taking off is already pretty wild as it is. Acknowledged, but if I'm remembering correctly, at this point only Axolotl, Toucan, Zebra, Lion, and Chameleon have not ended a day voting a flipped elim. Toucan and Zebra only have a chance of being elims if the person vouching them is also elim, and I can't see how Axolotl is elim based on the elim's behavior at that point. So I guess if it's not any of the three lower in my PoE, then there has to be a weaker point somewhere. Then again, I have to agree that he was one of the main people who helped the push on Meerkat take off. And also, thinking of D2, I think it might only make sense that he's elim if Octo is also elim
Violet Axolotl Posted January 13 Posted January 13 I have like no idea what's going on and I'm gonna have to leave soon, who should I lurch??? Ok I have to leave I'm just gonna pick
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