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Posted
30 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Maybe Hoid, CD, and I are the elims (this would be a fun team, wish it were so).

It would be my honor to serve as elim alongside you ✋😔

@Amanuensis the writeups are incredible btw

Okay, let's see what I got *crunches knuckles*

Day two rollover summary, paraphrased partially from Jo:

With seven hours left in the day, the VC stands as:

  • (2) TwinStorm: IcedOutPenguin, Belandrius Ohhmar,
  • (1) STINK: CoderDrag0n8
  • (1) ThatOneWorldhopper: Araris Valerian
  • (1) CoderDrag0n8: A Jo in the Bush
  • (1) IcedOutPenguin: TwinStorm
  • (1) Hoid Slayer: STINK

I vote TOW without good reasoning, just to test waters

Jo moves vote off CD for some reason and switches it to me - Jo, still not sure why you seem to have a vendetta against me, would be nice to know

Araris also switches vote to me, with the argument that I'm not acting on my analysis

VC:

  • (3) Hoid Slayer: STINKA Jo in the BushAraris Valerian,
  • (2) TwinStorm: IcedOutPenguin, Belandrius Ohhmar,
  • (1) ThatOneWorldhopper: Hoid Slayer, 
  • (1) STINK: CoderDrag0n8
  • (1) IcedOutPenguin: TwinStorm

I make an analysis post that convinces Araris to move vote back to TOW with me

Bee votes TwinStorm

CD votes TOW

TwinStorm votes TOW for the sake of self-preservation

VC:

  • (4) ThatOneWorldhopper: Hoid Slayer, Araris ValerianCoderDrag0n8TwinStorm
  • (3) TwinStorm: IcedOutPenguin, Belandrius Ohhmar, RoyalBeeMage
  • (2) Hoid Slayer: STINKA Jo in the Bush

TUH votes TwinStorm

Bee takes vote off TwinStorm and shifts it to TOW

TUH takes vote off TwinStorm and moves it to me

Final VC:

  • (5) ThatOneWorldhopper: Hoid SlayerAraris ValerianCoderDrag0n8TwinStormRoyalBeeMage,
  • (3) Hoid Slayer: STINKA Jo in the BushThe Unknown Hammerer
  • (2) TwinStorm: IcedOutPenguin, Belandrius Ohhmar,  

Retrospective analysis of D2:

First off, wherever they were hiding, the elims were sitting real nice, with three village trains.

Second, I am beginning to see a potential tie between Araris and CD (they both switch votes to TOW in a short time period)

What really stands out to me though is all the chaos with no real threat to the elims. A lot of people - namely Araris, Bee, CD, and TUH - were scrambling around somewhat when elims would have no real reason to do so. This subtly implies to me that the elims were hiding under the radar D2

This implicates Jo, BelOh, and Stink

It's possible that that's the elim team right there; that seems a little too simple, though. The weird bit is that that would then imply that the elims were taking actions they didn't need to D2, which is somewhat weird elim behavior - unless they were trying to push for a specific exe.

In that case, the most likely option I see is TOW - the elims might have rightly noticed that by exeing TOW D2, they set up TwinStorm for D3 (and if this was the elim's plan, it worked beautifully)

Such a possibility would most implicate CD, Bee, and TUH - I wouldn't include Araris in there because when he shifted to TOW there were better options (namely keeping the vote on me) for an elim

Day three summary:

Jo votes Twin, says happy to vote Twin or me

Twin votes Araris

Araris votes CD

I vote Twin

BelOh votes Twin

Not much happens until nine hours before rollover, when CD votes Araris

Current VC:

TwinStorm (3): Hoid, Jo, BelOh

Araris (2): Twin, CD

CD (1): Araris

Hoid (1): Stink

Minutes before rollover, TUH votes TwinStorm

I vote Araris

Final VC:

  • (3) TwinStormA Jo in the BushBelandrius OhhmarThe Unknown Hammerer
  • (3) Araris ValerianTwinStormCoderDrag0n8Hoid Slayer
  • (1) CoderDrag0n8Araris Valerian
  • (1) Hoid SlayerSTINK

Analysis of D3:

Well, this was much more uneventful - perhaps we should have taken the hint earlier that TwinStorm was the wrong idea

I think the flow of this cycle is pretty obvious; elims set out with intention to exe TwinStorm, and succeed

Alone, this day really doesn't tell us much. However, we can combine it with D2's - and we've been quite lucky that most players have been quite active

Based off of vibes, the most sus players in my eye are CD, BelOh, Araris, and a tentative Stink, who has done practically nothing all game but occasionally pop in to vote me

If we pardon BelOh for being new, then we can see a clear potential tie between CD and Araris. The problem here is that D3, they both voted for each other - however, CD was never in any real danger, and there was no way for them to predict my last-minute switch other than some messages I sent Araris pre rollover. It would've been a risky maneuver on their part, but not impossible to imagine

In a world where CD and Araris are elim together:

I'm looking at TUH as their third. His vote for Twin yesterday was what kept Araris alive, and D2, his switch from Twin to me would cement the TOW exe while avoiding keeping all elims on the same train

AAAAAND I just realized how unlikely this is since the three people I just accused are the three people voting to save my life 🤦‍♂️

In a world where Araris is elim, but not with CD:

Looking at Bee and TUH as at least one of them a teammate, based on my analysis for D2

Final elim could be anywhere

In a world where CD is elim, but not with Araris:

Looking at Bee and TUH as at least one of them a teammate

Probably both teammates on Twin train yesterday, implying Jo and BelOh as well

In a world where Jo, BelOh, and Stink are elim:

We're all screwed 😋

Honestly, I just spent a load of time on an analysis only to realize that I can envision basically anyone in a team with anyone

But that's all unimportant, because, while doing my research, I stumbled upon this absolutely heartless comment from Jo

image.png.a61203a7d00f6c72cd0b203bdfbe7d60.png

Thus, we can conclude that Jo is evil 😋 /s

Also can someone please explain to me what everyone means when they say ninja? It's confusing me a little

Wait

Just thought of something

I doubt there's more than one elim on the train voting to save me; sooooo there go all my theories of Araris, CD, and TUH being evil together

Sorry, guys

I just wasted an hour of my time

Posted (edited)

Ninja is when someone is writing a post and hits submit, only to discover someone posted in the interim that they didn't see. The "ninja" is the person(s) who posted

Edited by Amanuensis
Posted
4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Ninja is when someone is writing a post and hits submit, only to discover someone posted in the interim that they didn't see. The "ninja" is the person(s) who posted

Ahh okay that makes sense

Posted
2 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I'm looking at TUH as their third. His vote for Twin yesterday was what kept Araris alive, and D2, his switch from Twin to me would cement the TOW exe while avoiding keeping all elims on the same train

My vote yesterday only could have been motivated by keeping Araris alive if Hoid was my teammate. When I voted, Twin became pretty clearly in the lead.

Why would e!me care to cement a v!TOW train as opposed to a v!Twin train?  Also, I generally quite like having all the elims on one train because the village tends to find that unlikely. 

Posted
12 minutes ago, The Unknown Hammerer said:

My vote yesterday only could have been motivated by keeping Araris alive if Hoid was my teammate. When I voted, Twin became pretty clearly in the lead.

Yeah…

Honestly, so much doesn’t make sense

I can’t help but feel we’re looking at it all wrong

Again, I struggle to imagine a world where there is more than a single elim in Araris/CD/TUH because of how you all want to save me. Of course, there could be no elim there as well.

Your vote last night could’ve been an elim’s attempt to stay active while taking the easiest way out

Or it could have been just an innocent village move

16 minutes ago, The Unknown Hammerer said:

Why would e!me care to cement a v!TOW train as opposed to a v!Twin train?  Also, I generally quite like having all the elims on one train because the village tends to find that unlikely. 

My argument for this was because if TOW got exed (and Twin saved) then Twin would be the obvious exe candidate for the next day turn, and the elims could take down two birds with one stone

Will try to RP later, before rollover

Posted
3 minutes ago, The Unknown Hammerer said:

I kinda think we're looking at a BelOh Stink Jo team

Maybe

They’ve almost been too quiet though

Posted

I don't have long and I'm genuinely kind annoyed about that and this isn't ironic but I'm not allowed to say how I would really wanna express myself so

Feel like this Hoid Slayer wound is lowkey personal against me 'cause like I've wanted them dead but now it's a group proposal about it and isn't that just the best way to kill a villager and then we're back into double-bluff territory

I'm also at the point where I don't like Jo calling me Columbo and expecting me to solve stuff when like I don't straight up do anything man I don't know where that came from I just thought it was gassing me up for no reason but now I'm expected to randomly call someone out when my callout was ignored for like 2 cycles? Like if I'm wrong it's nothing new really but now it has impact which is new for me why does anyone do this stuff? 

Yeah no-one talked to me about game-related stuff in PMs which is kinda usual but also like theres no way they all didn't care about PMs so someone from TUH/jo/Araris is an elim and oh doesn't feel like it's the whole game being set out. Be nice if anyone else PM'd me but I don't have any kinda thing going on anymore do I so don't know what I was expecting really. Don't worry gamers I'm mainly annoyed at myself it's not like I do thread posts that make people think I'm worth giving a good yonder to.

I am annoyed at how like today was Friday and I was busy doing stuff with my fellas but like also mathematically do we just lose today if HoidS!asVillager and another villager die 'cause I guess I wanna see like 3 different people's maths about that and if we need to save HoidS even if they're evil which like it's a random kill going through? Surely a vig did the maths about making it happen or it's an elim scheme

I just apparently don't have the brainpower for this anymore lol if it was a day cycle I'd be wanting to vote Jo now 'cause I do nothing and they hyped me up like others should be acting 

Roberto didn't even get to do anything this post I can't even RP what's going on like you'd think I'd commit to either game-focus or RP but you love to strike the middle

I was gonna add more but low-key / high-key I gotta head back off again 

Sorry gamers maybe I'll see ya next cycle if its happening

Ciao

 

Posted (edited)

Hoid

 

i think that it's better to keep the devil that you know than you dont... if hoid is innocent then we have another village on our side, however if hoid is an elim than at least we can keep our sights on hi. 

Edited by RoyalBeeMage
Posted
15 minutes ago, STINK said:

I don't have long and I'm genuinely kind annoyed about that and this isn't ironic but I'm not allowed to say how I would really wanna express myself so

Feel like this Hoid Slayer wound is lowkey personal against me 'cause like I've wanted them dead but now it's a group proposal about it and isn't that just the best way to kill a villager and then we're back into double-bluff territory

I'm also at the point where I don't like Jo calling me Columbo and expecting me to solve stuff when like I don't straight up do anything man I don't know where that came from I just thought it was gassing me up for no reason but now I'm expected to randomly call someone out when my callout was ignored for like 2 cycles? Like if I'm wrong it's nothing new really but now it has impact which is new for me why does anyone do this stuff? 

Yeah no-one talked to me about game-related stuff in PMs which is kinda usual but also like theres no way they all didn't care about PMs so someone from TUH/jo/Araris is an elim and oh doesn't feel like it's the whole game being set out. Be nice if anyone else PM'd me but I don't have any kinda thing going on anymore do I so don't know what I was expecting really. Don't worry gamers I'm mainly annoyed at myself it's not like I do thread posts that make people think I'm worth giving a good yonder to.

I am annoyed at how like today was Friday and I was busy doing stuff with my fellas but like also mathematically do we just lose today if HoidS!asVillager and another villager die 'cause I guess I wanna see like 3 different people's maths about that and if we need to save HoidS even if they're evil which like it's a random kill going through? Surely a vig did the maths about making it happen or it's an elim scheme

I just apparently don't have the brainpower for this anymore lol if it was a day cycle I'd be wanting to vote Jo now 'cause I do nothing and they hyped me up like others should be acting 

Roberto didn't even get to do anything this post I can't even RP what's going on like you'd think I'd commit to either game-focus or RP but you love to strike the middle

I was gonna add more but low-key / high-key I gotta head back off again 

Sorry gamers maybe I'll see ya next cycle if its happening

Ciao

 

 Call me crazy but this reads genuine

Posted

Honestly the more I think about JointheBush hyping me up the more I'm against them and I'm just getting sheeped despite having like one opinion 

It's good activity which we love but like has it lead to anything in terms of getting rid of elims?

I've said that knowing I'm dying tomorrow I guess lol genuinely don't advise batting for me

1 minute ago, Hoid Slayer said:

 Call me crazy but this reads genuine

You're crazy and like I still lowkey wanna kill you in a proper vote but you're saved this cycle right which I'm realising I'm kinda for 'cause it doesn't make sense as an elim gambit to risk some good intel but maybe it does y'know what I got 20 minutes before bed at this point convince me to save you cause I'm down like

Also its not hard to be genuine just be utterly clueless and ready to see the game over post lol 

Posted
1 minute ago, STINK said:

Honestly the more I think about JointheBush hyping me up the more I'm against them and I'm just getting sheeped despite having like one opinion 

It's good activity which we love but like has it lead to anything in terms of getting rid of elims?

I've said that knowing I'm dying tomorrow I guess lol genuinely don't advise batting for me

You're crazy and like I still lowkey wanna kill you in a proper vote but you're saved this cycle right which I'm realising I'm kinda for 'cause it doesn't make sense as an elim gambit to risk some good intel but maybe it does y'know what I got 20 minutes before bed at this point convince me to save you cause I'm down like

Also its not hard to be genuine just be utterly clueless and ready to see the game over post lol 

I mean…

To be honest, I don’t really need to convince you to save me at this stage

And I don’t have more to give than what I’ve already given. I’ve explained my decisions last night, and given the best analysis I can

Also, what makes you think you’re gonna die tomorrow?

Also yes I’m absolutely crazy 😋

Posted

I'm not necessarily dead tomorrow but is the game not over tomorrow that was the vibe I had making it the same thing

 

Posted
Just now, STINK said:

I'm not necessarily dead tomorrow but is the game not over tomorrow that was the vibe I had making it the same thing

 

Nah

Tomorrow is ly/lo

8 people recently browsing is CRAAAAZY

Posted

Okay, that’s 5 votes for healing Hoidslayer. I wish I had listened to my worries and switched to him yesterday then, because apparently the majority of players want him alive.

I hope to be able to sit down and do analysis soon, but, school is my priority, unless i manage to power through it.

28 minutes ago, STINK said:

I don't have long and I'm genuinely kind annoyed about that and this isn't ironic but I'm not allowed to say how I would really wanna express myself so

Feel like this Hoid Slayer wound is lowkey personal against me 'cause like I've wanted them dead but now it's a group proposal about it and isn't that just the best way to kill a villager and then we're back into double-bluff territory

I'm also at the point where I don't like Jo calling me Columbo and expecting me to solve stuff when like I don't straight up do anything man I don't know where that came from I just thought it was gassing me up for no reason but now I'm expected to randomly call someone out when my callout was ignored for like 2 cycles? Like if I'm wrong it's nothing new really but now it has impact which is new for me why does anyone do this stuff? 

Apologies, I haven’t played with you in a while. That’s just how I remember you.

 

currently, if two villagers die tonight, I do think we lose. But I don’t think that Hoid is a Villager.  I think letting him live is a mistake. 
if the Elims kill one of us tonight, and hoid lives, then tomorrow it’s 3-4.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

8 people recently browsing is CRAAAAZY

we're all waiting for the turnover chaos that usually happens right before the end of a turn... 

Posted
2 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

if the Elims kill one of us tonight

If the elims kill? why wouldnt they?

Posted
1 minute ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

If the elims kill? why wouldnt they?

They will certainly attempt it, but some people have Roseite and Verdant pots, I hope.

Posted
Just now, A Jo in the Bush said:

They will certainly attempt it, but some people have Roseite and Verdant pots, I hope.

they can block the NK!!! time to start collecting the things...

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