LG108: A Tale of Rats and Spores

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Things I'm noticing during my reread:

• TOW mentioned (jokingly) that he had a goal of voting out Doc this game. Probably should have taken that into consideration during the D2 vote
• RBM suggested that I should hop on the Twinstorm train. That suggests RBM isn't teamed with Twinstorm
• I like Joe's vote on CD
• Not really a fan of how Twinstorm pushes back against Joe or v!reads CD
• Rereading Penguin's interactions with Twinstorm doesn't really make Twinstorm look that good
• CD also defends Twinstorm against TOW

I'm feeling like a CD/Twinstorm elim pair is plaubile after that reread. The claim of passing a zephyr spore seems a bit weird if they are e/e though. Taking that into account, it would seem more likely that CD is the elim than Twinstorm (from my perspective, elims stand to gain more from passing spores, at least early on). At this point I'm not really considering a RBM/Twinstorm e/e pair.

I will say that for all the pushback against poke votes that TwinStorm did D2, he didn't really do much to guide the discussion in a different direction. I feel like if I were in that position as a villager, I'd point out specific things people should be focusing on (the Doc kill, for example), rather than vaguely gesturing that they exist. Like Penguin said, it reads overly defensive.

I'm getting generally positive vibes from Joe and TUH, and while those are weak reads, they suggest that STINK is the most likely elim on the Hoid Slayer train.

In summary:

• Given my village read of Hoid and the large number of votes that ended on TOW, TwinStorm is worth considering as an elim
• Twinstorm had negative interactions with Penguin, who was NK'd, and I agree with Penguin's perspective in those posts
• The Twinstorm/CD interactions are positive/reinforcing, which suggests they could be elim together, though the claim of zephyr passing doesn't really fit this
• RBM doesn't make a lot of sense as a TwinStorm teammate
• STINK seems least village of the Hoid voters
• TS/CD/STINK is my current proposed elim team

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

1 hour ago, Belandrius Ohhmar said:

Hey! I talked.

That's not the same as analysis

I pointed out the people that took time to break down the information and give a list of their reads

All you did was agree with me; it's not a bad thing, especially for a new player who's getting a feel for the game (and I understand not having a lot of time to post), but an important distinction to make

In fact, I'd appreciate it if you could give me more information instead of just piggybacking off what I said. What do YOU think? What have YOU noticed?

 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

9 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Alright

So here’s what I get from this NK:

There were two blatant pools of targets for the elims to attack: The Masters [TwinStorm, TUH] and the active, experienced players [Araris, Jo]. I’ll throw myself in there as well, not because I’m experienced but because I am analyzing a lot. So we have a pool of five:

[TwinStorm, TUH, Araris, Jo, me(Hoid)]

Yet for some reason, the elims didn’t kill anyone in this pool. The main reason I see for an elim team with no members in this pool to not NK any of them is for the Theory of Unnatural Survival (a name I just came up with, basically that the reason high activity players don’t die is cause the elims are hiding among them). The elims could be baiting this, hoping we exe players in this pool; it would be an interesting gambit, but also risky. And it would take five cycles to exe everyone in there, cycles where elims have a risk of getting caught. Of course, they could use a combination of NKs as well, but then, why haven’t they already? I don’t know if my thought process here makes sense, but what I’m trying to say is there is likely at least one elim in that pool.

So TUH probably belongs in the "experienced" list in the sense that he's a threat in his own right. And STINK is certainly experienced, even if he hasn't played much recently.

Honestly, the Penguin kill is giving me MR 74 vibes. I feel like that especially implicates CD as someone who would be concerned about Penguin's threat as a villager. Neither xino nor KSauce are playing this game, and TOW already flipped village, so he's the only one left in that pool. And of course myself, TUH, Hoid, and Twinstorm also played that game, so that could fit with Twinstorm being a CD teammate.

I'm a little surprised to see you espousing your theory of unnatural survival after LG 107 . There were several heavy-hitting villagers that game that the elims took their sweet time getting to.

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm a little surprised to see you espousing your theory of unnatural survival after LG 107 . There were several heavy-hitting villagers that game that the elims took their sweet time getting to.

For all we know the elims could have a plan that we just can’t see yet. They are after all the informed minority. They could have non meta reasons for their actions. Which makes them more unpredictable. 
 

considering the large number of people both in hoids list of experienced players and in the game it’s more than likely that half the elims are in hoids list.

10 hours ago, Hoid Slayer said:

TwinStorm, TUH, Araris, Jo, me(Hoid)]

If there are only 2 elims I don’t think it’s likely for both of them to be in this group. Unless we got really unlucky.

if there’s a third elim - which I don’t think we’ve confirmed yet - then it’s more probable. 

[CoderDrag0n8 He/They]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Things I'm noticing during my reread:

• TOW mentioned (jokingly) that he had a goal of voting out Doc this game. Probably should have taken that into consideration during the D2 vote
• RBM suggested that I should hop on the Twinstorm train. That suggests RBM isn't teamed with Twinstorm
• I like Joe's vote on CD
• Not really a fan of how Twinstorm pushes back against Joe or v!reads CD
• Rereading Penguin's interactions with Twinstorm doesn't really make Twinstorm look that good
• CD also defends Twinstorm against TOW

I'm feeling like a CD/Twinstorm elim pair is plaubile after that reread. The claim of passing a zephyr spore seems a bit weird if they are e/e though. Taking that into account, it would seem more likely that CD is the elim than Twinstorm (from my perspective, elims stand to gain more from passing spores, at least early on). At this point I'm not really considering a RBM/Twinstorm e/e pair.

I will say that for all the pushback against poke votes that TwinStorm did D2, he didn't really do much to guide the discussion in a different direction. I feel like if I were in that position as a villager, I'd point out specific things people should be focusing on (the Doc kill, for example), rather than vaguely gesturing that they exist. Like Penguin said, it reads overly defensive.

I'm getting generally positive vibes from Joe and TUH, and while those are weak reads, they suggest that STINK is the most likely elim on the Hoid Slayer train.

In summary:

• Given my village read of Hoid and the large number of votes that ended on TOW, TwinStorm is worth considering as an elim
• Twinstorm had negative interactions with Penguin, who was NK'd, and I agree with Penguin's perspective in those posts
• The Twinstorm/CD interactions are positive/reinforcing, which suggests they could be elim together, though the claim of zephyr passing doesn't really fit this
• RBM doesn't make a lot of sense as a TwinStorm teammate
• STINK seems least village of the Hoid voters
• TS/CD/STINK is my current proposed elim team

To be fair, Twin did give RBM a rosite spore

And I still dont get how giving spores is e!indicitave

I gave him a zephyr spore because i had 3, and didn't need all 3 for a pot (I would only be crafting one for the xp) and thought to give one to my master!

And many people have agreed that Joe's vote on me was strange, because I just like rp T^T

---

Sozar wondered why so many people were pointing fingers at him. He didn't do anything wrong! He had defended his master, and voted out the person who cornered him in the ship and threw knives at him! Maybe he should just let them kill him...

No. Sozar has to survive. He at least has to learn a little bit more before he goes.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

So TUH probably belongs in the "experienced" list in the sense that he's a threat in his own right. And STINK is certainly experienced, even if he hasn't played much recently.

Honestly, the Penguin kill is giving me MR 74 vibes. I feel like that especially implicates CD as someone who would be concerned about Penguin's threat as a villager. Neither xino nor KSauce are playing this game, and TOW already flipped village, so he's the only one left in that pool. And of course myself, TUH, Hoid, and Twinstorm also played that game, so that could fit with Twinstorm being a CD teammate.

I'm a little surprised to see you espousing your theory of unnatural survival after LG 107 . There were several heavy-hitting villagers that game that the elims took their sweet time getting to.

I didn’t play LG 107 

1 minute ago, RoyalBeeMage said:

For all we know the elims could have a plan that we just can’t see yet. They are after all the informed minority. They could have non meta reasons for their actions. Which makes them more unpredictable. 
 

considering the large number of people both in hoids list of experienced players and in the game it’s more than likely that half the elims are in hoids list.

If there are only 2 elims I don’t think it’s likely for both of them to be in this group. Unless we got really unlucky.

if there’s a third elim - which I don’t think we’ve confirmed yet - then it’s more probable. 

I really doubt there’re only two elims in game with this many people

The only way I see that happening is if the elims got some INSANE starting equipment

1 minute ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

And I still dont get how giving spores is e!indicitave

He says, despite voting that way last cycle

I do agree the vote on you by Jo was a little weird, but I wouldn’t stake too much on it

[CoderDrag0n8 He/They]

6 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I didn’t play LG 107 

I really doubt there’re only two elims in game with this many people

The only way I see that happening is if the elims got some INSANE starting equipment

He says, despite voting that way last cycle

I do agree the vote on you by Jo was a little weird, but I wouldn’t stake too much on it

what do you mean i 'voted that way last cycle'???

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I didn’t play LG 107 

I meant MR 74. I'm getting those two mixed up in my head.

 

3 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

I really doubt there’re only two elims in game with this many people

The only way I see that happening is if the elims got some INSANE starting equipment

This. 2-person elim teams are really hard to balance in any game, and are very swingy (one of them dies and the other has to kill just about everyone else on their own) so my recommendation would be to assume 3 unless you have good reason to do otherwise.

 

4 minutes ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

To be fair, Twin did give RBM a rosite spore

And I still dont get how giving spores is e!indicitave

Simply put, villagers earn trust by solving. Elims can only do that so much before having to fake it or bus a teammate. Therefore, any mechanical ways to earn trust inherently lend themselves to the elim team. 

[CoderDrag0n8 He/They]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

I meant MR 74. I'm getting those two mixed up in my head.

 

This. 2-person elim teams are really hard to balance in any game, and are very swingy (one of them dies and the other has to kill just about everyone else on their own) so my recommendation would be to assume 3 unless you have good reason to do otherwise.

 

Simply put, villagers earn trust by solving. Elims can only do that so much before having to fake it or bus a teammate. Therefore, any mechanical ways to earn trust inherently lend themselves to the elim team. 

Ohhhh. Huh. I still think it isn't always e!indicitative. I had a lot of zephyr that i didn't need, so I gave it to someone.

---

Sozar was appalled at the terrible death of a comrade. Who on this boat could he trust?

[RoyalBeeMage he/him]

8 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

The only way I see that happening is if the elims got some INSANE starting equipment

And we don’t know that they didn’t. We know from… Doc’s? Death that people can have starting loot, something that was kept hidden until his death.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Each player can effectively take 2 actions per turn. A coordinated team of 2 elims with, let's assume 1 of each Apprentice Pot, can take 4 actions total per cycle. The village starts have pots available on Day/night 2, after which 2 of them are probably dead. Day 3 would start with 8 Villagers and 2 Elims. Sure, the elims have a lot of potential actions, but not a lot of opportunity to use them. The village can take 16 actions per cycle, and don't have the obligation to use one to kill. I think 4 elims with no starting items is more likely than 2 elims with lots of starting items. And 3 elims is more likely than either.

Edited October 8, 2025 by A Jo in the Bush
So many spelling errors

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

45 minutes ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

what do you mean i 'voted that way last cycle'???

Wait

You didn't?

Oh wait no that was Bee

Wait no

I just misremembered Jo's analysis from last night badly

M'bad, folks

49 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I meant MR 74. I'm getting those two mixed up in my head.

 

Oh yeah

I mean, just cause the Theory is occasionally wrong doesn't mean it should be discarded

26 minutes ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Each player can effectively take 2 actions per turn. A coordinated team of 2 elims with, let's assume 1 of each Apprentice Pot, can take 4 actions total per cycle. The village starts have pots available on Day/night 2, after which 2 of them are probably dead. Day 3 would start with 8 Villagers and 2 Elims. Sure, the elims have a lot of potential actions, but not a lot of opportunity to use them. The village can take 16 actions per cycle, and don't have the obligation to use one to kill. I think 4 elims with no starting items is more likely than 2 elims with lots of starting items. And 3 elims is more likely than either.

No idea what you're saying here, but I agree with the conclusion

[Araris Valerian he/him]

6 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

No idea what you're saying here, but I agree with the conclusion

Basically the action economy doesn't lend itself to a small elim team (which most games run into if the NK uses an action slot)

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

22 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Basically the action economy doesn't lend itself to a small elim team (which most games run into if the NK uses an action slot)

Do we know the NK uses an action slot?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

45 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

No idea what you're saying here, but I agree with the conclusion

Action economy is probably the most important thing for measuring power. Its why Magestar won as the single non-villager in that one MR i ran. He could take 8 actions every night.

15 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Do we know the NK uses an action slot?

I assume it does, but actually since it's untraceable, it might not?

Edited October 9, 2025 by A Jo in the Bush

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

2 hours ago, A Jo in the Bush said:

Action economy is probably the most important thing for measuring power. Its why Magestar won as the single non-villager in that one MR i ran. He could take 8 actions every night.

Dang it’s crazy looking at that and not recognizing a single name

[Araris Valerian he/him]

7 minutes ago, Hoid Slayer said:

Dang it’s crazy looking at that and not recognizing a single name

That’s because the player list has character names, rather than usernames. You’d see some familiar names if you scrolled down a bit.

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

That’s because the player list has character names, rather than usernames. You’d see some familiar names if you scrolled down a bit.

Ahh ok  

Now I recognize THREE out of nineteen people

[Doc12]

Going through the list: Aww I know all these people!! Mage and I were buddies! There's Bugsy, stick and Dani, ecth and elenion, lopen, drought bringer, Aman's there spectating... Wait that's me?? I was in this game??

I miss my friends

*returns to being dead*

Edited October 9, 2025 by Doc12

[STINK he/him]

Apologies for the inactivity good people of the elimination of a being called Sanderson. In saying that, how have we not managed to eliminate the final Sanderson yet?

Anyways, I am not inactive today because I'm making a post and that's being active, maybe not active like active but hey it's still something and wow where'd all those votes go are you guys wanting to do another rollover-scramble like the last day? It is kinda fun waking up to like two new pages on the thread and having to go 'well anything could have happened there' rather than like only 2 new posts y'know.

I don't see a vote tally on this page but there's not much being thrown around anyways right so probably not needed that badly. I lowkey still am just gonna float real casual like Hoid Slayer and then I'm gonna think on / digest the more substantial posts that have been thrown around recently. Some posts might not get digested but more nibbled on if you said something funny, everyone should try to make a pun or catchphrase in their posts it'd be great for everyone who wants to pay attention my brand new initiative. 

I kinda wanna throw out right now light sus on Araris but that's like basically gut and also probably that Araris was like Stink is the least village or something when I am Stink who is Village in harmony with the soul and body. Yeah don't think I'm ever gonna pop into the thread with like a big post that's really substantial but if some people wanna treat this thread like a PM we can ask each other questions and host like a QnA. I definitely got that acronym wrong but /shrug

Anyways anyways we should say anyways less. 

Anyways let's get some more votes out now people you need to commit to something to make the pivot in the last hour more dramatic! @everyonewhohasn'tvotedyetandneedstodothat

Someone should make that mention valid

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours and 45 hours remain to vote and submit actions

[CoderDrag0n8 He/They]

Araris sorry, but I feel like enough people are sus on you and no one has acted on it

also you voted for me lol

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I feel better about executing TwinStorm now that a counter train is starting on Araris. I don't think Pooh Bear is evil, but I don't have time to actually analyse the situation. Probably won't before the end of the cycle. 

Noteworthy that is it CD as I hypothesized.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

Araris sorry, but I feel like enough people are sus on you and no one has acted on it

You should pay more attention. This happens literally every game and is part of my village strategy.

Also, you might have better luck listing the folks you think suspect me and asking them if they would be willing to join your vote.

Edit: I feel like there is a non-zero chance the dead doc would be more engaging than the thread has been today.

Edited October 9, 2025 by Araris Valerian

[Hoid Slayer He/Him]

9 hours ago, STINK said:

Apologies for the inactivity good people of the elimination of a being called Sanderson. In saying that, how have we not managed to eliminate the final Sanderson yet?

Anyways, I am not inactive today because I'm making a post and that's being active, maybe not active like active but hey it's still something and wow where'd all those votes go are you guys wanting to do another rollover-scramble like the last day? It is kinda fun waking up to like two new pages on the thread and having to go 'well anything could have happened there' rather than like only 2 new posts y'know.

I don't see a vote tally on this page but there's not much being thrown around anyways right so probably not needed that badly. I lowkey still am just gonna float real casual like Hoid Slayer and then I'm gonna think on / digest the more substantial posts that have been thrown around recently. Some posts might not get digested but more nibbled on if you said something funny, everyone should try to make a pun or catchphrase in their posts it'd be great for everyone who wants to pay attention my brand new initiative. 

I kinda wanna throw out right now light sus on Araris but that's like basically gut and also probably that Araris was like Stink is the least village or something when I am Stink who is Village in harmony with the soul and body. Yeah don't think I'm ever gonna pop into the thread with like a big post that's really substantial but if some people wanna treat this thread like a PM we can ask each other questions and host like a QnA. I definitely got that acronym wrong but /shrug

Anyways anyways we should say anyways less. 

Anyways let's get some more votes out now people you need to commit to something to make the pivot in the last hour more dramatic! @everyonewhohasn'tvotedyetandneedstodothat

Someone should make that mention valid

 

…

Do you have a point for voting me, by any chance?

5 hours ago, CoderDrag0n8 said:

Araris sorry, but I feel like enough people are sus on you and no one has acted on it

also you voted for me lol

Not liking this in general, but I do get the sentiment and would be interested in hearing some more specific reasoning

5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

You should pay more attention. This happens literally every game and is part of my village strategy.

Ngl, this kinda feels like an easy cop out

5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I feel like there is a non-zero chance the dead doc would be more engaging than the thread has been today

So real

Can someone put together a VC?