How bad have things gotten by TSM?

[Ripheus23]

At one point (Dawnshard IIRC), one of the Sleepless talks about something like how billions could die if the Dawnshard is abused. Then:

Spoiler

But millions, perhaps billions, of people died each day around the cosmere. (The Sunlit Man, pg. 10)

How is this possible? If there were 100 inhabited planets with, IDK, an average of 2 billion people, there would be 200 billion people in the cosmere total. If 2 billion people died every day, it would take 100 days to depopulate those planets, then, yeah? So maybe the average population of a planet is a lot more than 2 billion??? Well, even if it were 8 billion, that's just 800 billion for 100 planets, so 2 billion dead per day would mean 400 days before everyone is dead. (Sidebar: there's a sci-fi book, Anvil of Stars, with one star system with a population in the trillions. Or IIRC Coruscant in SW is supposed to have like a trillion people. So maybe there are trillions of people in the cosmere overall??? Are there Coruscant-like demographic concentrations somewhere?)

Where are all these possibly dying people coming from??? Are some of them spren or similar? I could see a planet having unfathomable numbers of spren, so if there were spren "now" on many planets, there'd be a reliable population base to keep chipping away at. But spren, as far as we know, die when they're bonded and an oath to them is broken. Alternatively, if they get absorbed by a Shard, maybe they die. So are there Shards going around absorbing billions of spren a day? Or billions of people are binding and breaking some spren?

I wonder if it's not that possible super-dangers like Retribution and Discord have placed the whole cosmere on the verge of destruction, but that there are systems in place that routinely destroy huge numbers of people without the threat of more cosmic destruction. Like the difference between nuking the Earth in a flash vs. maintaining the factory-farm system over the decades?

[Nitpicking]

The Cosmere presumably has way more than 100 inhabited planets. It contains multiple galaxies, each with over 100 billion stars (I'm guessing, of course) in it.

[Ripheus23]

12 minutes ago, Nitpicking said:

The Cosmere presumably has way more than 100 inhabited planets. It contains multiple galaxies, each with over 100 billion stars (I'm guessing, of course) in it.

??? I thought it was WoBed that the cosmere has only a hundred star systems to its name or something.

EDIT: the Coppermind is kinda ambiguous... There's this linked:

Quote

 

Questioner

Is there a center to the cosmere?

Brandon Sanderson

There isn't a center in the cosmere... I keep calling it a dwarf galaxy but I think they decided it's a cluster, instead of a dwarf galaxy.

Overlord Jebus

Even a dwarf galaxy is still really big.

Brandon Sanderson

Yeah, still too big. So we had to call it a cluster. Because we only wanted like what, we came up with 50 or 100 stars? So it's a cluster. Or a really dwarf galaxy.

Emerald City Comic Con 2018 (March 1, 2018)

 

But the entry for the Physical Realm says, "The cosmere is a small star cluster within a dwarf galaxy,^[2][3] or potentially a galaxy in of itself,^[4] or the universe.^{[5][6][7][8]"}

Edited June 22, 2025 by Ripheus23

[Nitpicking]

1 hour ago, Ripheus23 said:

??? I thought it was WoBed that the cosmere has only a hundred star systems to its name or something.

EDIT: the Coppermind is kinda ambiguous... There's this linked:

But the entry for the Physical Realm says, "The cosmere is a small star cluster within a dwarf galaxy,^[2][3] or potentially a galaxy in of itself,^[4] or the universe.^{[5][6][7][8]"}

No, you're right. A different WoB:

 

Spoiler

Questioner

How many worlds does [the cosmere] have in it?

Brandon Sanderson

A couple hundred. A couple hundred stars.

Questioner

How many planets are your books going to use?

Brandon Sanderson

Habitable worlds, in Goldilocks zones? There's probably 20 or 30, maybe a few more. Maybe up to 50, but you'll only really... there'll be like, ten or so core planets that you'll see stories from.

 

Edited June 22, 2025 by Nitpicking

[JustQuestin2004 he/him]

Perhaps Nomad was just being cynically hyperbole? He wasn't in a great head space around this point.

[RedBlue]

My takeaway from the ‘billions dying every day’ line is that the cosmere is bigger than we previously thought. The WOBs limiting it to a few hundred star systems with a few dozen habitable planets are on the older side, and it wouldn’t be the first time Brandon changed his mind about an element of worldbuilding after it became relevant in the books.

Back-of-the-envelope calculations: the real world has roughly 150,000 deaths per day. To have a death rate of around one billion per day, you need seven thousand Earths (ish). Factor in that space age planets are likely to have higher population density, and that geo-engineered systems may have multiple inhabited planets and moons, you need a few thousand inhabited star systems for a billion deaths per day to be routine.

That I’m aware of, this doesn’t contradict anything in the published canon. There could be a handful of ‘space powers’ with huge population centres that are relevant to the metaplot, and few thousand planets with Tress-level technology that are considered unimportant backwaters.

[LewsTherinTelescope]

Marsh (TLM 28), Nomad (TSM 19), and Taravangian (W&T I-2) all refer to a galaxy.

Spoiler

"Duralumin," he said absently, "and a lot of practice. Listen, child. Harmony is growing increasingly indecisive. He denies it, but I see it. That gives Autonomy—Trell, the god of the outworlders—a chance to move in. She seeks to eliminate us from the stage of galactic politics before we even step onto it, and her followers are already armed with Hemalurgy. You studied the book I gave you?"

Spoiler

He guessed their day was maybe ten hours galactic standard. The planet was small, and turned slowly enough that people could keep up in ordinary aircraft. He figured it was possible to fly all the way around in just four hours. Except you couldn't. You had to wait for the planet to turn, because if you got too far ahead, you ran straight into the sunlight.

Spoiler

"Because you killed your father, and now worry the same will happen to you. Like the warlords here, you consolidate power so that no one can kill you." He stepped toward her, raising a fist, the emotions making a tempest of rage inside him. "I am the very substance of passion, and where a person suffers anywhere in this miserable galaxy, I feel it. That is the burden of this power."

Either way I expect that the real number is on the lower end and Nomad is just leaving a big range because he hasn't done the math, though. He does say "perhaps", after all.

[Ripheus23]

What if it's like there are billions of Fused-like soldiers in Retribution's army, and they die in these crazy mass waves constantly? And sometimes most of them die, and then come back. Like Retribution emulates the horror that was inflicted on the bridgemen, by inflicting it in another way on billions of his soldiers.

[clowncarcrash]

14 hours ago, Ripheus23 said:

At one point (Dawnshard IIRC), one of the Sleepless talks about something like how billions could die if the Dawnshard is abused. Then:

  Hide contents

But millions, perhaps billions, of people died each day around the cosmere. (The Sunlit Man, pg. 10)

 

Where are all these possibly dying people coming from??? Are some of them spren or similar? I could see a planet having unfathomable numbers of spren, so if there were spren "now" on many planets, there'd be a reliable population base to keep chipping away at. But spren, as far as we know, die when they're bonded and an oath to them is broken.

We've seen spren die outside of being broken from a broken oath. Maybe dawnshards could generate antiinvestiture and zero sum the spren.

 

Also....maybe sleepless count a hordeling as 1 life and that could pad the numbers? Or you could think of the Doyllist analysis -approach and Brandon wrote that because it sounded cool without actually processing how many people need to die to make that make sense. (like how most fantasy stories, the currency doesn't make sense if you scrutinize it or when George R.R martin was surprised to find out how big a 700 foot wall was when his works got adapted). 

[RedBlue]

6 hours ago, clowncarcrash said:

Or you could think of the Doyllist analysis -approach and Brandon wrote that because it sounded cool without actually processing how many people need to die to make that make sense. (like how most fantasy stories, the currency doesn't make sense if you scrutinize it or when George R.R martin was surprised to find out how big a 700 foot wall was when his works got adapted). 

Given that Sanderson employs his own in-house editorial team, including a continuity checker, I would be shocked if an error this obvious and easy to check had somehow gone unnoticed. I think they ran the numbers and that it’s intentional.

[Ripheus23]

7 hours ago, RedBlue said:

Given that Sanderson employs his own in-house editorial team, including a continuity checker, I would be shocked if an error this obvious and easy to check had somehow gone unnoticed. I think they ran the numbers and that it’s intentional.

Sanderson seems familiar with some questions of historical population loss (the Roshar-medieval execution of 10% of Azir seems probably based on any of many IRL scenarios past). Now true, it's hard for most anyone to have a crisp intuition for huge demographics, the best we can do is usually get a panoramic look at a city. But for ambient "statistical" reasons, then...

Oh, hmm, maybe I misread the implied "or" in Nomad's thought. He doesn't have to say that billions might die every day *per se*, but he can be thinking, "Millions of people die daily anyway, or sometimes a whole planet is destroyed and billions die on those specific days."

[clowncarcrash]

15 hours ago, RedBlue said:

Given that Sanderson employs his own in-house editorial team, including a continuity checker, I would be shocked if an error this obvious and easy to check had somehow gone unnoticed. I think they ran the numbers and that it’s intentional.

I don't find this persuasive. He has his own in-house editorial team but there are still typos and continuity errors that we document on this forum. 

[RedBlue]

5 hours ago, clowncarcrash said:

He has his own in-house editorial team but there are still typos and continuity errors that we document on this forum. 

In large manuscripts, typos are really easy to miss, which is why a few slip through in each book. Nobody misses an entire sentence with a statistic for the number of people who die each day, and checking that the statistic is in the right ballpark is very easy for anyone with access to the current worldbuilding notes, Google, and a calculator.

[LewsTherinTelescope]

Perhaps the most boring option, but seems like the official answer is just "Sigzil has not run the math".

Spoiler

VeryNiceName16

Sigzil mentions that perhaps billions of people die every day in the Cosmere. This would require about 6000 modern earths. Was this a mistake, or has the scale dramatically increased from the 50-100 stars you mentioned?

Brandon Sanderson

Nah, it's Sigzil exaggerating. He's Hoid's apprentice, he has dramatic license and hyperbole as a tool that he can use at will. He has no idea how many people actually die, he's not gonna run the- well, he could run the math, he's that type of person, but he has not run that math.

Secret Project #4 Reveal and Livestream (March 29, 2022)

 

Edited June 24, 2025 by LewsTherinTelescope

[RedBlue]

18 minutes ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Perhaps the most boring option, but seems like the official answer is just "Sigzil has not run the math".

Fair enough. That seems reasonable.

[BinarySecond]

6 hours ago, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Perhaps the most boring option, but seems like the official answer is just "Sigzil has not run the math".

  Reveal hidden contents

VeryNiceName16

Sigzil mentions that perhaps billions of people die every day in the Cosmere. This would require about 6000 modern earths. Was this a mistake, or has the scale dramatically increased from the 50-100 stars you mentioned?

Brandon Sanderson

Nah, it's Sigzil exaggerating. He's Hoid's apprentice, he has dramatic license and hyperbole as a tool that he can use at will. He has no idea how many people actually die, he's not gonna run the- well, he could run the math, he's that type of person, but he has not run that math.

Secret Project #4 Reveal and Livestream (March 29, 2022)

 

He needed Vienta for that

[+Oltux72 he/him]

On 6/24/2025 at 10:59 AM, LewsTherinTelescope said:

Perhaps the most boring option, but seems like the official answer is just "Sigzil has not run the math".

  Hide contents

VeryNiceName16

Sigzil mentions that perhaps billions of people die every day in the Cosmere. This would require about 6000 modern earths. Was this a mistake, or has the scale dramatically increased from the 50-100 stars you mentioned?

Brandon Sanderson

Nah, it's Sigzil exaggerating. He's Hoid's apprentice, he has dramatic license and hyperbole as a tool that he can use at will. He has no idea how many people actually die, he's not gonna run the- well, he could run the math, he's that type of person, but he has not run that math.

Secret Project #4 Reveal and Livestream (March 29, 2022)

 

You are putting me into a difficult position, but consider this: The Night Brigade needs to chase Nomad. What does that imply? That they cannot just preposition forces to await him. They wouldn't even need to get it right immediately.

I'd say that The Sunlit Man just does not work in terms of logic unless the Cosmere contains thousands of worlds.

[Ripheus23]

On 6/30/2025 at 5:20 AM, Oltux72 said:

You are putting me into a difficult position, but consider this: The Night Brigade needs to chase Nomad. What does that imply? That they cannot just preposition forces to await him. They wouldn't even need to get it right immediately.

I'd say that The Sunlit Man just does not work in terms of logic unless the Cosmere contains thousands of worlds.

That's an interesting point. If there are only 30 or 50 inhabited planets, you could have merely a few dozen units distributed for interception, but for thousands of worlds you'd need thousands. OTOH, maybe it's an indication that the Brigade doesn't have more than a few such sufficient units?

[clowncarcrash]

On 6/24/2025 at 1:58 AM, RedBlue said:

In large manuscripts, typos are really easy to miss, which is why a few slip through in each book. Nobody misses an entire sentence with a statistic for the number of people who die each day, and checking that the statistic is in the right ballpark is very easy for anyone with access to the current worldbuilding notes, Google, and a calculator.

There are straight up continuity errors in those threads. Why not? I don't think the demographics of the cosmere are set in stone on a per diem basis. 

[+Oltux72 he/him]

12 hours ago, Ripheus23 said:

That's an interesting point. If there are only 30 or 50 inhabited planets, you could have merely a few dozen units distributed for interception, but for thousands of worlds you'd need thousands. OTOH, maybe it's an indication that the Brigade doesn't have more than a few such sufficient units?

You are up against the mathematics of compound interest applied to likelihood. Let's say you can cover one world in twenty. (If there are sixty worlds that means three). Likelihood of not skipping to a world they are waiting for you:

(1 - 0.05)^x - where x is the number of skips. After ten skips that gives you a 40% chance of catching him.
Now, it is possible that his skips actively avoid the Night Brigade. But if not, the Cosmere needs to be big.