Anniversary Game 11/Anonymous Game 15: Memory of Tyrian Falls

[Azure Mouse]

Oh did we actually see offensive smoking in play or what?

[Melon Dingo]

1 minute ago, Azure Mouse said:

Oh did we actually see offensive smoking in play or what?

"Maybe, but I wasn't able to check. I lied to see Byrar's immediate respone but thought it was better to leave it at that than keep pushing him when the other smoker clouding him was such an easy defence."

[Azure Mouse]

Either way, I'm kind of impressed regardless.

[Mint Heron]

You decided to test me, do you have actual evidence for Dragonfly? because if everyone thinks that one smoker is innocent and one is guilty, then obviously I'll have to vote Sew, although I don't have any reason other than balance logic given by others.

Edited January 21, 2025 by Mint Heron

[Ivory Dragonfly]

13 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

You decided to test me, do you have actual evidence for Dragonfly? because if everyone thinks that one smoker is innocent and one is guilty, then obviously I'll have to vote Sew, although I don't have any reason other than balance logic given by others.

"Likewise, Bryar (Mint Heron)." Sew had been busy, but looking back, the train on Kael Voss (Fuchsia Ostrich) seemed way off. Considering that the only two trains were herself and Bryar, it only made sense to accuse the other.

[Coral Swan]

Okay Dingo has to be village. If they're elim, I think elims just win so well played if that's what happened

With distro, we currently have 2 village vanilla, a village lurcher, a village rioter, and then claimed roles of two smokers, a mistborn, and a soother (myself). Assuming dingo is village, that means the village has 2 vanilla, a lucher, a rioter, a soother, and a mistborn. There are still 2 smokers, and 7 unclaimed roles. I do think it's just 3 elims, but I guess there is a possibility of 4 less power heavy elims with so many village power roles. I wouldn't be surprised if the elims had a smoker + a mistborn + another something. Could be any other number of combos though. 

Assuming there are no thugs and lurchers remaining, the soonest the game can end with a village lose assuming 3 elims would be currently 3v8, after d4 3v7, after n4 3v6, after d5 3v5, after n5 3v4, after d6 3v3. Okay, so we still have some time to figure the game out. This of course could go longer with protects/extra lives and could go shorter with coinshots/more elims. 

But the players remaining are:

Amber Vulture

Azure Mouse

Charcoal Hyena

Chartreuses Penguin

Coral Swan (myself)- Soother

Emerald Falcon

Indigo Weasel

Ivory Dragonfly- Smoker

Mauve Crocodile

Melon Dingo- Mistborn

Mint Heron- Smoker

 

Okay lets look at likely distributions if Heron is elim vs if Dragonfly is elim (as I think it's quite unlikely that both are).

Heron voted Cream Tuatara on D1, voted Cream Tuatara on D2 again, and voted Fuchsia Ostrich D3.

Dragonfly voted Melon Dingo D1, voted Cream Tuatara on D2, and voted Mint Heron on D3.

Lets then take a look at how the Ostrich train evolved on D3. Before there are any votes on Ostrich, Heron votes on myself. Crocodile is the first to vote for Ostrich. At this point Dragonfly has the most votes (3 to all 1s). I vote for Heron briefly, and then change my vote to Ostrich as I continue to go through each players posts throughout the game. At this point, Dingo joins the Ostrich train, and now Ostrich has 2 votes while Heron, Dragonfly, and Vulture each have 2. Falcon votes for Dragonfly and Dragonfly votes for Heron, putting Ostrich, Heron, and Dragonfly all at 3 votes. Hyena then votes for Ostrich, putting Ostrich at 4 and Dragonfly and Heron both at 3. This is the point that Heron votes for Ostrich. This puts the votes at 5 Ostrich, 3 Dragonfly, and 3 Heron. Technically Heron was only one off dying but wasn't currently on the chopping block. Falcon adds a vote to Heron, ending in the 5 for Ostrich and 4 for Heron, which ended up being 3 as I soothed to make my vote have more weight. Dragonfly did not take their vote off of Heron. If they had joined the Ostrich train at that point it would have looked a lot worse, but I think with all of this Dragonfly looks better than Heron.

So if Heron is elim, I would look at their D1 reads list, which is given as follows.

Positive: Emerald Falcon, Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Ivory Dragonfly
Slight Negative: Amber Vulture, Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich, Charcoal Hyena, Melon Dingo
Slighter More Negative: Cream Tuatara, Coral Swan (myself)
Medium Negative: Indigo Weasel, Mauve Crocodile

Albatross doesn't make this list. We know that the three dead players are all village. I know i am village and am going to assume dingo is village. If Heron is elim, I think it is very unlikely that dragonfly is also elim, so I have them in green as well. So now lets look at how the remaining players have viewed heron throughout the game.

Azure Mouse in a post earlier on lists Emerald Falcon and Mint Heron as possible elims. Also believes that both Dragonfly and Heron likely aren't elims together. Mouse does end up voting for Heron on D3 and doesn't change it. At the point of this vote, Dragonfly has 3 votes, Vulture has 2, and Heron has 1, so this before more votes started to pile up on Heron later in the day. If Heron and Mouse are e/e, it would appear that Mouse was setting up to bus Heron if necessary.

Amber Vulture has not given any reads on Heron that I have seen.

Chartreuse Penguin on D2 lists 5 players and guesses that 2 of them are elim. The listed players are Emerald Falcon, Mint Heron, Azure Mouse, Charcoal Hyena, and Cream Tuatara. Tuatara has flipped village, but all other players are still living. Penguin then votes for Mint Heron. When asked to give reads on both Heron and Dragonfly on D3, ends up voting Dragonfly after stating that both of them seem villagery. This honestly feels like an elim trying to do what asked to stay off the radar but doesn't actually make sense. Why vote for someone that you read as villagery? At this point, there were 3 votes on Dragonfly, 2 votes on Vulture, and one vote on Dingo. Honestly feels like Penguin could have been distancing from Heron early on and then voted on the other smoker when it seemed like they were likely to die, just jumping on an easy train. 

Charcoal Hyena's first mention of Heron was on N2 when they said that they were fine with either a Dragonfly or Heron vote, which honestly most everyone has said at this point. On D3, they voted for Ostrich, which tipped the vote from 3 each on Ostrich, Heron, and Dragonfly, to 4 on Ostrich and 3 on the other two. Could be an elim teammate of Heron's moving in to try to protect a possible tie death.

Indigo Weasel voted Heron early on in the game without reasoning other than reactions to their apple game. They did vote for Heron D3 though, and was the first player to do so. Of the Heron D3 voters, I think Mouse is more likely to be an elim accomplise.

Mauve Crocodile's reads of Heron were not village earlier on and has shifted over time to...something? Lots of posts about how we should vote heron or dragonfly but ended up voting for Ostrich so idk. 

My best guess would be Heron/Penguin/Hyena as an elim team.

Now lets look at the flip side of dragonfly being elim.

Dragonfly didn't give an early reads list, but we have one from them from D3, so lets use that. 

Melon Dingo: General willingness to solve the game
Indigo Weasel: Quick to vote and act
Mauve Crocodile: Still thinking that Day 2 was a bunch of Village trains
Amber Vulture: Strong defense of Hayden in PMs
Charcoal Hyena: Breaking the tie Day 1
Fuchsia Ostrich: Inactivity, but my gut says village
Chartreuse Penguin: Less good gut read
Coral Swan: Keeps dropping off my radar, but has a weird vibe.
Mint Heron: Null kind of read
Azure Mouse: I'm not sure why, but I've got a negative gut read on him. Just seems active enough to move the thread, but not standing out
Emerald Falcon: Well aware I'm probably digging a tunnel to Southern Scadrial. Still can't shake this read though.

In this scenario, Heron is likely a villager. Same reasoning for marking myself and Dingo.

Indigo Weasel: The entire game Weasel has been against Dragonfly votes. Could be a teammate protecting them, could not be.

Muave Crocodile had Dragonfly in an early readslist as village, but ends up questioning it and voting for Dragonfly. Doesn't really feel like e/e interaction, but idk

Amber Vulture N2 says to keep an eye on Dragonfly, but that's the only thing they have said regarding Dragonfly. Again, no way to know.

Charcoal Hyena's first mention of Heron was on N2 when they said that they were fine with either a Dragonfly or Heron vote, which honestly most everyone has said at this point. On D3, they voted for Ostrich, which tipped the vote from 3 each on Ostrich, Heron, and Dragonfly, to 4 on Ostrich and 3 on the other two. Could be an elim teammate of Dragonfly's moving in to try to protect a possible tie death. Would have expected this to happen earlier though, as Dragonfly had votes on themselves at the start of the day while Heron got them later on. 

Chartreuse Penguin voted for Dragonfly, adding a 4th vote to the train. Could be an elim teammate bussing Dragonfly, or a villager just joining the vote. 

Azure Mouse doesn't ever give reads on Dragonfly so idk.

Emerald Falcon has an early reads list for Dragonfly as village and ends up voting for Heron on D3. When they switched their vote to Heron on D3, Dragonfly wasn't in danger of dying. 

If I had to put together an elim team here, I would say Dragonfly, and idek. Falcon maybe? Vulture maybe? Not enough info to have a good idea there.

 

So after all that, Heron does look worse than Dragonfly. There is still the possibility of Heron/Dragonfly v/v but I don't think that's the case. 

12 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

You decided to test me, do you have actual evidence for Dragonfly? because if everyone thinks that one smoker is innocent and one is guilty, then obviously I'll have to vote Sew, although I don't have any reason other than balance logic given by others.

I don't really like this post at all. Do you have reads on anyone else? Why vote for Dragonfly? Do you not have thoughts about any other players? Nobody that feels like elim or village to you? I understand that you might feel like its gonna be you or dragonfly so you gotta vote dragonfly, but why not try to solve the game instead of automatically going to logic given to others, which is solely based on role distro guesses?

Heron 

If Heron flips elim, I think the next vote should be either Hyena or Penguin. Probably Hyena first. If Heron is villager, idk what we do. Ig dragonfly could be elim, but I'm honestlly leaning more towards a villager dragonfly which would mean v/v smokers. At that point it would probably make sense to look into who started pushing for one smoker being elim first, but I feel pretty strongly that Heron will flip elim.

Also @Azure Mouse and @Amber Vulture could we get some reads from you guys?

[Indigo Weasel]

13 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

You decided to test me, do you have actual evidence for Dragonfly? because if everyone thinks that one smoker is innocent and one is guilty, then obviously I'll have to vote Sew, although I don't have any reason other than balance logic given by others.

If Nibbles were to ask the other Smoker what alignment you are, what would they say? 

Nibbles is pretty sure that's the correct solution to this riddle 

3 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

Amber Vulture -  A very interesting character. Constantly refers to himself in the third person.

Nibbles thinks that rice . Sorry, nice

2 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

"Likewise, Bryar (Mint Heron)." Sew had been busy, but looking back, the train on Kael Voss (Fuchsia Ostrich) seemed way off. Considering that the only two trains were herself and Bryar, it only made sense to accuse the other.

That tracks 

14 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Ig dragonfly could be elim, but I'm honestlly leaning more towards a villager dragonfly which would mean v/v smokers

8 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

Crocodile is the first to vote for Ostrich. At this point Dragonfly has the most votes (3 to all 1s).

You have to commit to flipping both if one is village, if you're going to narrow it down to two options like that

Was the Ostrich train made during a time of pressure on Dragonfly or Heron? Asking Swan because Nibbles is too lazy to reread right now

[Coral Swan]

7 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Was the Ostrich train made during a time of pressure on Dragonfly or Heron? Asking Swan because Nibbles is too lazy to reread right now

Technically started when Dragonfly was the lead train. Dragonfly had 3 votes, ostrich train started and heron train started soon thereafter. But before either of those trains took off, it was Dragonfly 3 with both Heron and Ostrich with two until Dingo voted for Ostrich which booted him up and made Dragonfly and Heron 2 and Ostrich 3 and then heron and ostrich kept getting more votes. 

[Mint Heron]

1 hour ago, Coral Swan said:

I don't really like this post at all. Do you have reads on anyone else? Why vote for Dragonfly? Do you not have thoughts about any other players? Nobody that feels like elim or village to you? I understand that you might feel like its gonna be you or dragonfly so you gotta vote dragonfly, but why not try to solve the game instead of automatically going to logic given to others, which is solely based on role distro guesses?

My reads have repeatedly proven to be inaccurate. There have been enough people who seem to agree that it’s me or dragonfly. Plus, it simplifies things to flip one of us sooner rather than later. 
 

1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said:

 

2 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

You decided to test me, do you have actual evidence for Dragonfly? because if everyone thinks that one smoker is innocent and one is guilty, then obviously I'll have to vote Sew, although I don't have any reason other than balance logic given by others.

If Nibbles were to ask the other Smoker what alignment you are, what would they say? 

 

Not what dragonfly thinks of me, but I’m confused why Dingo only tested my smokescreen by claiming seeker, instead of me and dragonfly

[Emerald Falcon]

In a world with v/v Smokers, I'd image Melon Dingo would have to be an elim for balance. Melon Dingo is town, so it really just points to Smokers should be e/v. Keep in mind that we have 2 flipped town PRs already.

Amber Vulture
Azure Mouse
Charcoal Hyena
Chartreuse Penguin
Coral Swan - Soother
Emerald Falcon - Vanilla
Indigo Weasel
Ivory Dragonfly - Smoker
Mauve Crocodile
Mint Heron - Smoker
Melon Dingo - Mistborn

Amethyst Scorpion - Vanilla
Magenta Albatross - Vanilla
Cream Tuatara - Lurcher
Fuchsia Ostrich - Rioter

In order for both Mint Heron and Ivory Dragonfly to be town, that would mean we have two town Smokers + town Mistborn + town Lurcher + town Rioter. This is just not possible without the elims having to be pretty stacked. In this world, Coral Swan is 99% an elim. But just by itself, having two Town Smokers just does not make sense in this world. There is, from my point of view, a 0% chance that both Smoker claims and the Mistborn claim are all town. Melon Dingo, as I think we should all be able to agree, is town. So the Smokers are a difference check (e/v) at the least.

We should always hit at least one elim between the two of them, unless our GMs were silly with the distro, which I just do not believe happened right now.

I would think that the Smoker claims should be e/v and not e/e. Not very sure on that.

At this point, I would probably just split up the playerlist fmpov:

1 elim here:
Ivory Dragonfly
Mint Heron

2 elims here:
Amber Vulture
Azure Mouse
Charcoal Hyena
Chartreuse Penguin
Coral Swan
Indigo Weasel
Mauve Crocodile

Which is not very narrowed down, rip.

Operating off of the assumption it was 12 v 3 to begin with, which is standard, and I don't think town is strong enough in terms of PRs to consider a 11 v 4 starting distro. (11 v 4 -> 9 v 4 -> 7 v 4 -> 5 v 4) vs (12 v 3 -> 10 v 3 -> 8 v 3 -> 6 v 3 -> 4 v 3) - remember that it is day 4, so it would be do or die today in a 4 elim world (assuming my counting skills are ok today). In my opinion, it's just not worth considering this world. A 2 elim world is very unlikely with the amount of town PRs we likely have, I just don't really see that being an option, hence why just solve for a 3 elim world.

I lean town on Coral Swan the most out of everyone in the bottom group, and don't really have a preference between the top group - I have reasons both could flip elim here. Coral Swan being town would make me probably find any more PR claims to be likely just an elim imo, since that would be 2 town vote manip, plus I assume a town Smoker (of the two), a town Lurcher, and a town Mistborn. Which already feels like quite a lot. If we were to flip an elim with a weak role, I would be very certain in this world. I know there's a Tineye, and I'd probably lean towards them being a wolf in the world I'm assuming with my reads here, maybe.

I'm sure if I had the energy to, I could sit down and read back through all the cycles and figure out who is unlikely e/e with each other in the bottom group, because I suck at worldbuilding for elim teams of 3, but I can figure out plausible worlds for elim teams of 2. I'm just so tired I'm sorry y'all. Will try to work on that later today.

[Melon Dingo]

2 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

Not what dragonfly thinks of me, but I’m confused why Dingo only tested my smokescreen by claiming seeker, instead of me and dragonfly

Rind wonders how much Byrar thinks he can get done in a single night.

[Mint Heron]

2 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

Rind wonders how much Byrar thinks he can get done in a single night.

I guess that wouldn’t have been credible, yeah. You could have used PMs, but that’s not quite as public. Fair enough, I just wish there had actually been a seeker who could check me out dragonfly and figure things out. 

[Melon Dingo]

46 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

I lean town on Coral Swan the most out of everyone in the bottom group

"Can you elaborate on why? I've given my reason for the opposite." With a town rioter dead, and one town and one spiked smoker, it also made it liklier to Rind that the remaining manipulation role was spiked.

[Emerald Falcon]

Socially townreading for weak reasons. But yes, mech has been making me hesitate there, I just find their recent efforts are more towny than anyone else right now.

[Azure Mouse]

3 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Socially townreading for weak reasons. But yes, mech has been making me hesitate there, I just find their recent efforts are more towny than anyone else right now.

What about their effort are you townreading specifically here?

 

EDIT:
I know that someone asked me for my reads earlier, and I have seen that, I just don't really have that formulated at the moment, nor do I have the spoons to do so. Apologies.

 

Edited January 21, 2025 by Azure Mouse

[Melon Dingo]

12 hours ago, Coral Swan said:

So after all that, Heron does look worse than Dragonfly.

Rind sat by Acks. He didn't like putting so much pressure on the man but he didn't think he'd be around long enough anymore that he could afford not to. "Sorry, but what changed your mind? Yesterday you did a lot of analysis too and that left you voting Sew until I asked you not to. Changing over to Byrar as soon as a connection gets brought up feels a little strange."

[Emerald Falcon]

1 hour ago, Azure Mouse said:

What about their effort are you townreading specifically here?

In a game that's been mostly a lower level of effort, it stands out as a positive. At the very least, it's pro-town. Elims atp are doing fine at blending in, given we've misexe'd three times in a row, so the effort isn't necessary for an elim. Compared to town who is genuinely trying to solve. I like their worldbuilding efforts.

---------------------------------------------

 

Game Breakdown

This is basically a lot of noting down significant posts and occasional analysis. I'm not considering e!Melon Dingo worlds at all. Side note: I am never doing this ever again.

Day 1

Spoiler

 Start of day posts were mostly v since Magenta Albatross/Cream Tuatara/Fuchsia Ostrich all flipped town. A lot of the d1 interactions were v/v.

Mauve Crocodile votes Coral Swan. Nothing special to it.

Mint Heron "I hear there’s some misting about, maybe we’ll run into one of them." @Mint Heron who were you referring to here?

Amber Vulture posts and leaves.

Mint Heron votes Cream Tuatara, citing "with the information I have".

Indigo Weasel/Nibbles votes Coral Swan. This is probably mildly not e/e because it doesn't read as performative, but it doesn't have to be performative here depending on if Coral Swan understood what Indigo Weasel was doing.

Charcoal Hyena votes Chartreuse Penguin for lurking. Not e/e.

Ivory Dragonfly votes Melon Dingo. This feels somewhat in response to Melon Dingo voting Nibbles the post before. "Like, that chef is certainly actin' funny, but he's tryin' to get a rise out of you. Ya should know better to suspect that." e/e with Nibbles.

Azure Mouse commenting on Melon Dingo voting Nibbles. This was initially a post I townread since it's a good observation + a real world presented.

Mauve Crocodile votes Cream Tuatara. e/e with Coral Swan because of the way the unvote shifts into suspicion on someone else while using Coral Swan who they called "alright". I'd also like to note "Cream Tuatara trying to get coral to speak about their role when the game has barely begun is suspicious" means Mauve Crocodile likely picked up on Cream Tuatara's Lurcher soft because they're clearly paying attention to roles.

Noting Amethyst Scorpion voting Mauve Crocodile and Mauve Crocodile's response to it.

Mauve Crocodile votes Charcoal Hyena. Not e/e. What's interesting is Amethyst Scorpion's response to it, saying that they did not think it was the best vote.

Charcoal Hyena tiebreaks v/v wagons. Wagons were 2-2, and this vote makes them 3-2. Worrying about tied wagons there is slightly towny. An elim doesn't need to worry when elims weren't in danger. I would note wagons were low, so they were close to the one vote vanity wagons. Still think it's a point in their favor.

And that's the day. Final VC ends up as:

Quote

Cream Tuatara (3): Emerald Falcon, Magenta Albatross, Mint Heron
Magenta Albatross (3): Azure Mouse, Charcoal Hyena, Cream Tuatara
Charcoal Hyena (1): Mauve Crocodile
Indigo Weasel (1): Melon Dingo
Mauve Crocodile (1): Amethyst Scorpion
Melon Dingo (1): Ivory Dragonfly
Mint Heron (1): Indigo Weasel

Night 1

Spoiler

Mauve Crocodile commenting on elimination. I mention here (then forgot about it, oops) that this is terrible. Mauve Crocodile asks about votecount and yet doesn't voice that they were townreading Magenta Albatross?

Mint Heron comments similar to what I said. Not very e/e with Mauve Crocodile, slight point against. Their read on Ivory Dragonfly is "Ivory Dragonfly: Seems reasonable, normal behavior.", which is e/e. Also note their read on Coral Swan "Coral Swan: I dislike the amount of changing votes on Acks, but the eleventh metal thing is weird for an elim. " is e/e. Their suspicion and reasoning on Nibbles is probably not e/e. Overall, reads mirrored mine at that point.

Azure Mouse comments on Mint Heron's readlist in a way that I read as their view on thread's opinion on them was off slightly. Referring to this. Don't really have a read on it because I think it could go either way.

Amber Vulture posts and leaves.

Ivory Dragonfly post that I do not understand but think is significant.

Day 2

Spoiler

Amethyst Scorpion votes Mauve Crocodile.

Nibbles votes Mint Heron. Probably not e/e. Could note that Nibbles not seeming to have picked up on the role soft as not e/e with Mauve Crocodile, but it's very fakeable.

Mint Heron "main suspicions today are on Crocodile, Weasel and Tuatara." Wolfsiding.

Chartreuse Penguin "my suspicions currently lie in the falcon, the heron, the mouse, and the Hyena." and votes Mint Heron. Not e/e with Mint Heron.

Mint Heron "Hayden is probably the most likely to be spiked" Hmm. Just kill the wolfsider.

Ivory Dragonfly tells me that Cream Tuatara is a PR, because wtf is reading comprehension. Note that this means a team with e!Ivory Dragonfly does make that NK on Cream Tuatara because they noticed the claim. It's sort of +elim points.

Mauve Crocodile "Ivory Dragonfly: they knew Tuatara's role and as elim they do not attempt to shoot them, this is village." Quite the opposite. e/e with Ivory Dragonfly. Note Coral Swan read "Coral Swan: mostly a gut v read" and Charcoal Hyena read "Charcoal Hyena: I don't quite remember why I was side-eyeing them yesterday, but on a D1 reread they seem quite alright for the most part.". Can be e/e with either.

Chartreuse Penguin post that's unironically >rand v.

Nibbles post about finding others to vote Mint Heron. Not e/e.

Ivory Dragonfly votes Charcoal Hyena. Probably not e/e. Side note, this post is pairing with Mint Heron (yes, the difference check) because they're both pushing the same agenda lol. This is also just a wolfy post for essentially saying "u voted town u are a wolf".

Azure Mouse response to Ivory Dragonfly. Would probably lean not e/e.

Charcoal Hyena about their vote. This is probably town.

Nibbles votes Azure Mouse. Not e/e.

Mint Heron does wolfsiding things (voting a PR).

Mint Heron sus on Nibbles. Nibbles response. Not e/e. Nibbles can be e/e with Ivory Dragonfly.

Mauve Crocodile makes a great point about Ivory Dragonfly (and also did the same thing but w/e). Votes Ivory Dragonfly. Lean not e/e.

Mint Heron can be e/e with Coral Swan.

Nibbles votes Coral Swan. Not unpairing.

Coral Swan megapost. Not e/e with Ivory Dragonfly.

Amber Vulture posts to Coral Swan I lean slightly not e/e.

Mint Heron shades Coral Swan. Can still be e/e.

Ivory Dragonfly does wolfsiding things (votes a PR). Is voting with Mint Heron.

Nibbles votes Mauve Crocodile at EoD. Probably not e/e.

Amber Vulture one minute to EoD. Zero town points for this.

Final VC ends up as:

Quote

Mauve Crocodile (2): Amethyst Scorpion, Emerald Falcon, Indigo Weasel
Cream Tuatara (2): Ivory Dragonfly, Mint Heron
Ivory Dragonfly (2): Coral Swan, Mauve Crocodile
Mint Heron (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Melon Dingo
Emerald Falcon (1): Amber Vulture

Just kill the wolfsiders.

Night 2

Spoiler

Mauve Crocodile doesn't like the exe. Also mentions that they don't think Mint Heron/Ivory Dragonfly are both town.

Nibbles comment. Not e/e with Mint Heron, ever, and probably towny.

Mint Heron about voting a PR. "another thing that made me suspicious was how quickly dragonfly initially defended him by attacking Tautara’s accusers (including falcon, who seems eager to attack anyone who shared your previous belief). I thought this meant that it was Tautara and Dragonfly." mfw Ivory Dragonfly voted Cream Tuatara with intent to kill.

Mauve Crocodile TMIs Fuschia Ostrich as town. Half-serious.

Melon Dingo mentions Mint Heron could be a Rioter or Smoker because their ability did not work on Mint Heron. Then implies almost immediately after in this post that Mint Heron would be more likely a Smoker.

Mauve Crocodile makes a post. I don't understand why this exists.

Mint Heron claims Smoker, as expected by Melon Dingo's posts. This occurs 2 hours before EoD.

Day 3

Spoiler

I'll note right now that Amethyst Scorpion is 90% of the time a low-info kill on a slot townread enough to justify dying. Mint Heron did not die, despite the claim being 2 hours before EoD, which means elims could've just killed v!Mint Heron, although understandably wouldn't because that's a slot being pushed.

Mauve Crocodile votes Ivory Dragonfly. Lean not e/e. Explanation behind awkward wording about the Soother/not Soother stuff is sort of towny.

Mauve Crocodile is the only sane person in the thread.

Melon Dingo claims Ivory Dragonfly is a Smoker.

Nibbles votes Mint Heron. This is never e/e.

Mauve Crocodile makes a good post.

Mint Heron "As for why I haven’t voted dragonfly, I’ll generally wait to hear from most people before voting. I didn’t say that I thought me or dragonfly was an elim [...] If there are other reasons to suspect Dragonfly, I could support that, but I’m not about to condemn them when I made the same mistake." This is kind of a perspective slip.

Ivory Dragonfly "I'm still mixed on Bryar as a read, but from a mechanical point of view, I trust them." Also pretty perspective slippy.

Nibbles joins the small group of sane people in the thread, and is likely not e/e with Ivory Dragonfly.

Mint Heron does not understand mech. Can be e/e with Ivory Dragonfly.

Amber Vulture votes Melon Dingo. Just kill the wolfsiders atp.

Coral Swan is unlikely e/e with Ivory Dragonfly. Also is not the Tineye (obviously, given the Soother claim).

Mauve Crocodile makes a post about Fuchsia Ostrich. Important because this starts the wagon, indirectly.

Chartreuse Penguin votes Ivory Dragonfly. Often not e/e.

Mint Heron votes Coral Swan. Maybe not e/e. e/e with Ivory Dragonfly simply because they are not voting the mechanical difference check.

Mauve Crocodile can be e/e with Mint Heron or Ivory Dragonfly.

Mauve Crocodile loses status in the sane people group and votes Fuchsia Ostrich. Note that Mauve Crocodile started this wagon, and it redirects from Ivory Dragonfly, as seen in this VC a couple posts later, where Ivory Dragonfly is top wagon. This is very e/e.

Azure Mouse votes Mint Heron. Probably not e/e.

Coral Swan votes Mint Heron. Not important because of their next post.

Coral Swan votes Fuchsia Ostrich. This can be saving e!Ivory Dragonfly.

Ivory Dragonfly votes Mint Heron. "Despite the rest of the town's insistence, she couldn't help feeling that there were two Village smokers." This can still be e/e. Slightly not e/e, but because of the vote negation, it isn't really.

Mint Heron votes Fuchsia Ostrich. Wolfy vote. Can be self-pres since wagons were 5-4.

Final VC:

Quote

Fuchsia Ostrich (5): Charcoal Hyena, Coral Swan, Mauve Crocodile, Melon Dingo, Mint Heron
Mint Heron (3): Azure Mouse, Emerald Falcon, Indigo Weasel, Ivory Dragonfly
Ivory Dragonfly (2): Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich
Melon Dingo (1): Amber Vulture

Mint Heron had a vote negated on wagon that was not claimed.

Night 3

Spoiler

Mauve Crocodile "Let's just put Heron and Dragonfly together because at least 1 of them is a villager: Mouse, Hyena, Penguin, Weasel, Dragonfly/Heron" can be elim when Mint Heron/Ivory Dragonfly are e/e.

Day 4 page 1

Spoiler

Mauve Crocodile parrots a point and votes Mint Heron. Wolfy.

Mauve Crocodile votes Charcoal Hyena. Not e/e.

Mint Heron does not understand the difference check.

Ivory Dragonfly votes Mint Heron and shades Mint Heron for d3 wagons. If e/e, they're forced to bus already, so it's not unpairing.

Coral Swan votes Mint Heron. Not unpairing because Mint Heron is up 3 votes before this vote.

 

Things to note:

Aka the summary you were looking for when scrolling past all the spoilers, because who would even read all that? (Understandable, me too).

1. Mauve Crocodile not mentioning townread on Magenta Albatross during all of d1, despite that being a frequently voted slot
2. Ivory Dragonfly and Mint Heron wolfsiding by voting PR on d2.
3. Fuchsia Ostrich wagon is started by Mauve Crocodile despite them saying Ivory Dragonfly/Mint Heron would be good votes for d3. Mint Heron has a vote negated on wagon; wagons would've been 5-4 otherwise. This vote negation was not claimed by anyone to my knowledge.
4. The d3 spoiler is the most worth reading imo.

 

Possible Worlds

Note: When I say paired, I mean they can be e/e. When I say unpaired, I mean they're unlikely e/e. I excluded myself and Melon Dingo.

Spoiler

Ivory Dragonfly/Mint Heron are a difference check at the very least. They can be e/e imo.

I intended to actually go through and list the most likely worlds, but this took me so long and I suck at worldbuilding outside of pairs.

My reads right now are around:

Spoiler

Melon Dingo
Indigo Weasel
Azure Mouse

Charcoal Hyena
Chartreuse Penguin
Amber Vulture

Mauve Crocodile
Coral Swan
Ivory Dragonfly
Mint Heron

 

Conclusion, aka the part you should read

Kill the wolfsiders. Kill Mint Heron AND Ivory Dragonfly atp. It's criminal that we voted Fuchsia Ostrich over the two who voted a claimed PR who got shot by elims overnight. They are also mechanically always at least a difference check (e/v), and can be e/e for reluctance to vote each other. Mint Heron is more likely an elim I think, despite the wagon taking off making me a bit nervous.

Current VC
Mint Heron (4): Indigo Weasel, Melon Dingo, Ivory Dragonfly, Coral Swan
Ivory Dragonfly (1): Mint Heron
Charcoal Hyena (1): Mauve Crocodile

[Mauve Crocodile]

Mint Heron 

Deep in my gut I feel this is flipping green too, but we need this flip. Let it be known that I'd have been campaigning for Hyena's head otherwise.  

Praise the Ja

[Coral Swan]

4 hours ago, Melon Dingo said:

Rind sat by Acks. He didn't like putting so much pressure on the man but he didn't think he'd be around long enough anymore that he could afford not to. "Sorry, but what changed your mind? Yesterday you did a lot of analysis too and that left you voting Sew until I asked you not to. Changing over to Byrar as soon as a connection gets brought up feels a little strange."

Like I said, my main reason for voting dragonfly before was because I thought there was a e/e pairing with tuatara, so once they flipped village and I went back over my previous thoughts and then reread everything again I felt better about them.

[Coral Swan]

@Emerald Falcon

I had these quotes but then mobile nuked my post so this is what we get.

I knew what weasel was doing with the apples, it was pretty obvious...

Also yeah I was the one who soothed heron so, as I've just soothed to make my vote stronger each time. 

[Melon Dingo]

5 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

This vote negation was not claimed by anyone to my knowledge.

"That was Byrar."

1 hour ago, Coral Swan said:

Like I said, my main reason for voting dragonfly before was because I thought there was a e/e pairing with tuatara, so once they flipped village and I went back over my previous thoughts and then reread everything again I felt better about them.

"I find that hard to trust, when you only voiced that after I asked you to switch to Byrar and you jumped to Kael quickly afterwards."

 

[Indigo Weasel]

5 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Kill the wolfsiders. Kill Mint Heron AND Ivory Dragonfly atp.

Nibbles would probably judge Dragonfly based on how Heron flips. Dragonfly may have intended for their claim to stay quiet, but they did counterclaim Heron, which kicked off this whole  Seems unlikely to be teamed 

Nibbles is a little worried there's a unclaimed smoker that would undermine this logic. There was an AG a few years ago that had a lot of smokers 

Edit: AG10, had 4 Smokers

1 hour ago, Coral Swan said:

@Emerald Falcon

I had these quotes but then mobile nuked my post so this is what we get.

I knew what weasel was doing with the apples, it was pretty obvious...

Also yeah I was the one who soothed heron so, as I've just soothed to make my vote stronger each time. 

Ever since the snow white movie, no one accepts free apples anymore :(. 

How'd you feel about making a tie D1? 

Edited January 21, 2025 by Indigo Weasel

[Coral Swan]

1 hour ago, Melon Dingo said:

"That was Byrar."

"I find that hard to trust, when you only voiced that after I asked you to switch to Byrar and you jumped to Kael quickly afterwards."

 

It was me, not Bryar? Unless I'm totally missing what is being asked.

Also, this is what I said in my first large post of D3: 

Quote

I'm gonna keep my vote on Dragonfly atm, but will likely change it idk. Going back to my notes from before, my main reasoning for voting dragonfly d2 was dependant on tuatara flipping elim, which didn't happen. Actually you know what, Heron feels worse than Dragonfly, so gonna switch for now. I'll be back in a little bit with some more thoughts. Mint Heron. 

I then continued to go through each players posts and reevaluated if I thought I should vote for them. If all of my large posts that day were combined, there wouldn't have been a vote on heron. Plus you didn't ask me to switch to Heron, you just said you would be more inclined to trust me if I had voted for Heron instead of going straight to voting Dragonfly, which applied to my first vote that day not my subsequent votes.

1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Nibbles would probably judge Dragonfly based on how Heron flips. Dragonfly may have intended for their claim to stay quiet, but they did counterclaim Heron, which kicked off this whole  Seems unlikely to be teamed 

Nibbles is a little worried there's a unclaimed smoker that would undermine this logic. There was an AG a few years ago that had a lot of smokers 

Ever since the snow white movie, no one accepts free apples anymore :(. 

How'd you feel about making a tie D1? 

I tried to soothe hyena cuz I didn't want a tie but put the action in right at rollover so it wasn't counted. 

Edited January 21, 2025 by Coral Swan
quote box

[Mint Heron]

16 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

"That was Byrar."

1 hour ago, Coral Swan said:

No, That was Acks defending Byrar to strengthen the train on Kael. I do not have a vote manipulation power, just one that prevents my vote from being manipulated.

[Melon Dingo]

32 minutes ago, Coral Swan said:

It was me, not Bryar? Unless I'm totally missing what is being asked.

"Apologies, my mistake." Rind had not gotten much sleep last night.