Long Game 103: Eyes of Red and Blue

[Kasimir he/him]

Volo thought through the implications. He listed each claim down on a mental table in his head, in order to make sense of them.

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C1. Volo had, indubitably, been attacked and protected the previous night. The messages from the Elders were unmistakeable.

C2. Sever had claimed to visited Jonoh and to have identified Jonoh as having a voidspren. If true, this would indicate Sever had Illumination, and Jonoh was trafficking with the Unmade. 

C3. Arenta claimed to have visited Volo's room as well the previous night.

C4. Jonoh did not deny having visited Volo last Night.

C5. Giethri claimed to have encountered Matoro the previous Night.

C6. Volo himself, as he stated, had visited Metorem.

For the moment, they did not know what Matoro had been doing, nor Metorem. 

There were several factors to consider.

1. First, Volo recalled the list of Surges currently still active in Ru Eris:

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ADHESION: The target is added to a group PM with you and those you’ve targeted.
ABRASION: You and the target gain an individual PM.
PROGRESSION: The target is protected from an attack.
ILLUMINATION: You are notified if the target is Unmade, if only one Illumination action targeted them.
TRANSFORMATION: The target’s vote is changed to match your own vote the following day.
TRANSPORTATION: The target is swapped with you, actions that would hit one hit the other.
COHESION: The target’s action is blocked.

2. For Sever to have affected by Transportation, as Jonoh was suggesting, someone would have had to have targeted Jonoh with Transportation, and that someone had to be a murderer. If not, Sever would not have detected a voidspren.

Yet, murder was an action, and as such, took time. Ordinarily, someone could not both kill and use a Surge at the same time—there wasn't enough hours in Ru Eris for this. 

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The Unmade team has access to a google doc in which to collaborate, and a factional kill they may use every night. In order to use it, one member of the Unmade chooses to carry out the kill in lieu of performing other actions.

If they believed there was one murderer left, then this was a difficult thing for a murderer to achieve, simpliciter. This entailed that a townsperson had likely caused Transportation, in which case as soon as they knew where the visits were, they would be accurately able to exonerate Jonoh. Failing which, they would know Jonoh was lying to save himself.

The only exception was if Jonoh thought that Yelig-Nar or Re-Shepir was active in Ru Eris.

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RE-SHEPHIR: Send midnight essence to carry out the nightly kill. This means it doesn’t require an action from a player, and that there can be no reprisal from Gravitation.
YELIG-NAR: Allows one member of the Unmade team to use any Surge of their choosing with their action.

But Volo did not know enough about Yelig-Nar and felt he needed to seek the wisdom of the Elders. @DrakeMarshall Was it, in fact, possible for the fell and eldritch powers of the Unmade to allow a person to both commit murder and at the same time, use a Surge on someone else entirely? 

3. Volo thought it was worth re-examining the Surges, and re-grouping everyone together.

The first group he deemed Volo-fans; that was, people who thought to visit Volo at night. Perhaps they wanted his autograph, knowing his streams were doing well offworld?

VOLO-FANS:

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Arenta, Jonoh

The second group was Jonoh-visitors, of which they had, for the moment:

JONOH-VISITORS:

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Sever

Third, they had those visiting Metorem, which seemed to be just Volo.

METOREM'S VISITORS:

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Volo

The final group he deemed encounters, for had Giethri not mentioned encountering Matoro on her attempt to leave the madness that was Ru Eris?

MATORO ENCOUNTERS:

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Giethri

Too, what Matoro and Metorem had done remained unknown.

UNKNOWN:

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MATORO, METOREM

The way Volo saw it, they needed to match potential Surges by groups. This would help them get a better grasp of the situation.

Volo believed it was unlikely anyone with Transportation had targeted him. If this were true, someone else would've woken up to the unpleasant discovery that someone had tried to stab them in the night, and the more pleasant discovery that someone else had saved him. As such, he thought it was possible to make the following inferences:

First, neither Jonoh nor Arenta had Abrasion or Adhesion. This was because Volo had received no messages. Similarly, he supposed neither Jonoh nor Arenta had Transportation, for reasons he had already outlined. Moreover, one of Arenta and Jonoh needed to have Progression, unless someone else was coming forward as having targeted Volo (though he could understand why someone might be leery to do so, which made Jonoh's hunt for the ostensible Transportation suspect all the more suspicious.) Neither Jonoh nor Arenta had counterclaimed Illumination. For that reason, Volo believed that one of Jonoh and Arenta had Progression, and the other had Transformation or Cohesion.

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PROGRESSION: The target is protected from an attack.
TRANSFORMATION: The target’s vote is changed to match your own vote the following day.
COHESION: The target’s action is blocked.

Second, Sever had pretty much made an Illumination claim. As the Surge was distinctive, Volo did not think it needed further elaboration.

Third, Volo lacked messages with Metorem. However, the possibility one of Jonoh or Arenta had blocked him could not be ignored. If Jonoh or Arenta had blocked him, then Volo figured he probably had any Surge that wasn't Progression or Illumination. However, he hoped the Elders could shed light on what happened if Cohesion hit someone with Transportation (@DrakeMarshall)

Fourth, Giethri then logically had anything that wasn't Progression or Illumination. He wasn't sure, but he thought Giethri was suggesting it was neither Adhesion nor Abrasion.

---

Volo stopped there. It boiled down to, as he saw it, several factors:

First, he'd watched his share of social deduction streams. Prima facie, a claim to have scanned Jonoh as a criminal via Illumination needed to be resolved, simpliciter. If it was indeed Transportation at work, then they would have nonetheless learned something. While he did not particularly mind Jonoh's hunt for an ostensible Transportation user, he also felt that unless Jonoh could present a good case for pursuing that alternative suspect instead, changing his voiced suspicions did not seem appealing.

Second, the purpose of drawing Surges in baskets meant that the potential Transportation suspects Jonoh could attempt to deflect onto were in <Giethri, Metorem, Matoro.> Volo weakly felt that if a criminal, Matoro would probably have claimed to have visited someone, rather than no one at all. If Matoro, however, was a normal townsperson of Ru Eris, then he had no reason to lie, implying he should be removed from contention in either world. He was also minded to give Giethri some credit for having brought Cillian into contention in the first place.

Third, while it was possible that Ashertman had redirected Sever onto one of the murderers, which would neatly resolve the issue, it did require the murderers to have made the correct decision in complete ignorance. For that reason, Volo was not so sure that this had taken place.

[Lord Spirit he/him]

15 minutes ago, Ookla the Villager said:

Volo thought through the implications. He listed each claim down on a mental table in his head, in order to make sense of them.

For the moment, they did not know what Matoro had been doing, nor Metorem. 

There were several factors to consider.

1. First, Volo recalled the list of Surges currently still active in Ru Eris:

2. For Sever to have affected by Transportation, as Jonoh was suggesting, someone would have had to have targeted Jonoh with Transportation, and that someone had to be a murderer. If not, Sever would not have detected a voidspren.

Yet, murder was an action, and as such, took time. Ordinarily, someone could not both kill and use a Surge at the same time—there wasn't enough hours in Ru Eris for this. 

If they believed there was one murderer left, then this was a difficult thing for a murderer to achieve, simpliciter. This entailed that a townsperson had likely caused Transportation, in which case as soon as they knew where the visits were, they would be accurately able to exonerate Jonoh. Failing which, they would know Jonoh was lying to save himself.

The only exception was if Jonoh thought that Yelig-Nar or Re-Shepir was active in Ru Eris.

But Volo did not know enough about Yelig-Nar and felt he needed to seek the wisdom of the Elders. @DrakeMarshall Was it, in fact, possible for the fell and eldritch powers of the Unmade to allow a person to both commit murder and at the same time, use a Surge on someone else entirely? 

3. Volo thought it was worth re-examining the Surges, and re-grouping everyone together.

The first group he deemed Volo-fans; that was, people who thought to visit Volo at night. Perhaps they wanted his autograph, knowing his streams were doing well offworld?

VOLO-FANS:

The second group was Jonoh-visitors, of which they had, for the moment:

JONOH-VISITORS:

Third, they had those visiting Metorem, which seemed to be just Volo.

METOREM'S VISITORS:

The final group he deemed encounters, for had Giethri not mentioned encountering Matoro on her attempt to leave the madness that was Ru Eris?

MATORO ENCOUNTERS:

Too, what Matoro and Metorem had done remained unknown.

UNKNOWN:

The way Volo saw it, they needed to match potential Surges by groups. This would help them get a better grasp of the situation.

Volo believed it was unlikely anyone with Transportation had targeted him. If this were true, someone else would've woken up to the unpleasant discovery that someone had tried to stab them in the night, and the more pleasant discovery that someone else had saved him. As such, he thought it was possible to make the following inferences:

First, neither Jonoh nor Arenta had Abrasion or Adhesion. This was because Volo had received no messages. Similarly, he supposed neither Jonoh nor Arenta had Transportation, for reasons he had already outlined. Moreover, one of Arenta and Jonoh needed to have Progression, unless someone else was coming forward as having targeted Volo (though he could understand why someone might be leery to do so, which made Jonoh's hunt for the ostensible Transportation suspect all the more suspicious.) Neither Jonoh nor Arenta had counterclaimed Illumination. For that reason, Volo believed that one of Jonoh and Arenta had Progression, and the other had Transformation or Cohesion.

Second, Sever had pretty much made an Illumination claim. As the Surge was distinctive, Volo did not think it needed further elaboration.

Third, Volo lacked messages with Metorem. However, the possibility one of Jonoh or Arenta had blocked him could not be ignored. If Jonoh or Arenta had blocked him, then Volo figured he probably had any Surge that wasn't Progression or Illumination. However, he hoped the Elders could shed light on what happened if Cohesion hit someone with Transportation (@DrakeMarshall)

Fourth, Giethri then logically had anything that wasn't Progression or Illumination. He wasn't sure, but he thought Giethri was suggesting it was neither Adhesion nor Abrasion.

 

---

Volo stopped there. It boiled down to, as he saw it, several factors:

First, he'd watched his share of social deduction streams. Prima facie, a claim to have scanned Jonoh as a criminal via Illumination needed to be resolved, simpliciter. If it was indeed Transportation at work, then they would have nonetheless learned something. While he did not particularly mind Jonoh's hunt for an ostensible Transportation user, he also felt that unless Jonoh could present a good case for pursuing that alternative suspect instead, changing his voiced suspicions did not seem appealing.

Second, the purpose of drawing Surges in baskets meant that the potential Transportation suspects Jonoh could attempt to deflect onto were in <Giethri, Metorem, Matoro.> Volo weakly felt that if a criminal, Matoro would probably have claimed to have visited someone, rather than no one at all. If Matoro, however, was a normal townsperson of Ru Eris, then he had no reason to lie, implying he should be removed from contention in either world. He was also minded to give Giethri some credit for having brought Cillian into contention in the first place.

Third, while it was possible that Ashertman had redirected Sever onto one of the murderers, which would neatly resolve the issue, it did require the murderers to have made the correct decision in complete ignorance. For that reason, Volo was not so sure that this had taken place.

The council had mentioned a mysterious figure who had appeared in the night who had been reported to look an awful lot like an unmade. It seemed to Jonoh that after losing an ally, the voidbringer(s?) had decided to start using their resources. It was important to recognize that there has almost certainly been greater powers at work than simple murderers when analyzing what has happened. 

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Violist said:

The council had mentioned a mysterious figure who had appeared in the night who had been reported to look an awful lot like an unmade. It seemed to Jonoh that after losing an ally, the voidbringer(s?) had decided to start using their resources. It was important to recognize that there has almost certainly been greater powers at work than simple murderers when analyzing what has happened. 

None of which pointed to anything conclusive.

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Turn writeups will report the players who died, each of their roles / factions / last words, and the raw vote tally from the previous day if applicable. Everything else in the writeups is intended for flavoring purposes only, and may or may not have any strong relation to the truth. Think of it less as omniscient and reliable GM narration and more as entertaining hearsay.

Jonoh's picking on the most obvious target and 180 from previous suspicion of Sever seemed odd to Volo.

He wondered how you got from suspicion of Sever:

On 12/12/2024 at 1:07 AM, Ookla the Violist said:

He watched quietly as Sever conversed with Volo. He didn’t like how quickly the assassin had shifted his vote so quickly to save his life. He had waited until there enough votes on someone besides himself to switch so that he’d be safe. It was understandable that he didn’t want to die, but his methods were questionable at best. 

To immediately accepting there was a scan but insisting it had been the use of a Surge. Too, Jonoh seemed to only turn to suggestions of the Unmade after Transportation discussion had been somewhat exhausted. From Volo's point of view, if you were genuinely suspicious of Sever, then the more logical response to Sever's claim of a scan would have been to doubt Sever. Why would you believe someone you thought a scammer and murderer to be truthful about a scan you knew was wrong? This sudden shift in attitude didn't sit well with Volo and he wondered if that was because Jonoh's initial suspicions had been of convenience, or because Jonoh did not dare to counteraccuse Sever, knowing the death of a Radiant with Illumination would immediately spell his own.

Volo would like to hear from Metorem ( @CadCom) and more from Matoro as well. It seemed to him that Matoro was more likely just disengaged and a soft target, but he really hoped that Matoro ( @Ookla the Irreplaceable ) would help them solve the murders.

[TwinStorm He/Him]

29 minutes ago, Ookla the Villager said:

None of which pointed to anything conclusive.

Jonoh's picking on the most obvious target and 180 from previous suspicion of Sever seemed odd to Volo.

He wondered how you got from suspicion of Sever:

To immediately accepting there was a scan but insisting it had been the use of a Surge. Too, Jonoh seemed to only turn to suggestions of the Unmade after Transportation discussion had been somewhat exhausted. From Volo's point of view, if you were genuinely suspicious of Sever, then the more logical response to Sever's claim of a scan would have been to doubt Sever. Why would you believe someone you thought a scammer and murderer to be truthful about a scan you knew was wrong? This sudden shift in attitude didn't sit well with Volo and he wondered if that was because Jonoh's initial suspicions had been of convenience, or because Jonoh did not dare to counteraccuse Sever, knowing the death of a Radiant with Illumination would immediately spell his own.

Volo would like to hear from Metorem ( @CadCom) and more from Matoro as well. It seemed to him that Matoro was more likely just disengaged and a soft target, but he really hoped that Matoro ( @Ookla the Irreplaceable ) would help them solve the murders.

Matoro walked over to Volo. “And you are?” He said, tossing a coin to him.

Edited December 13, 2024 by Ookla the Irreplaceable

[Kasimir he/him]

16 minutes ago, Ookla the Irreplaceable said:

Matoro walked over to Volo. “And you are?” He said, tossing a coin to him.

"Volomir Kessarm, at your service," Volo said. "What are your thoughts on Jonoh having been scanned to be evil?" He had the feeling that Matoro hadn't any idea how to even nominate a suspicion, but admitted it was frustrating to deal with.

---

According to clarifications from the Elders ( @DrakeMarshall ), Volo had discovered that Yelig-Nar granted the use of any Surge, but that the Surge still required an action; that was to say, Yelig-Nar couldn't break the laws of time to the extent that a murderer could both kill and use a Surge. This removed Yelig-Nar from contention, unless Jonoh believed there were two murderers left, or that the murderer in question had simultaneously called on Yelig-Nar and Sja-Anat, or Ashertmarn.

At this point, there were so many boxes which had to be ticked that Volo felt it was best to test the simplest hypothesis.

Still, he was interested in Arenta's ( @Araris Valerian ) thoughts on the matter, and also wanted to hear from Metorem, who had apparently vanished.

[TwinStorm He/Him]

8 minutes ago, Ookla the Villager said:

"Volomir Kessarm, at your service," Volo said. "What are your thoughts on Jonoh having been scanned to be evil?" He had the feeling that Matoro hadn't any idea how to even nominate a suspicion, but admitted it was frustrating to deal with.

 

---

According to clarifications from the Elders ( @DrakeMarshall ), Volo had discovered that Yelig-Nar granted the use of any Surge, but that the Surge still required an action; that was to say, Yelig-Nar couldn't break the laws of time to the extent that a murderer could both kill and use a Surge. This removed Yelig-Nar from contention, unless Jonoh believed there were two murderers left, or that the murderer in question had simultaneously called on Yelig-Nar and Sja-Anat, or Ashertmarn.

At this point, there were so many boxes which had to be ticked that Volo felt it was best to test the simplest hypothesis.

Still, he was interested in Arenta's ( @Araris Valerian ) thoughts on the matter, and also wanted to hear from Metorem, who had apparently vanished.

He shrugged, not understanding a word he had just said. "Funny thing, ain't it, the fact that you didn't even remark at the fact that I hurled a storming coin at you. Most people would react, you... you're not from around here, or anywhere near it. Somewhere where these are a lot more common.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla the Villager said:

@DrakeMarshall Was it, in fact, possible for the fell and eldritch powers of the Unmade to allow a person to both commit murder and at the same time, use a Surge on someone else entirely?

...rumor has it that this one of the fell powers of Re-Shephir, whose midnight children can be in several places at once and are quite proficient at killing.

1 hour ago, Ookla the Villager said:

However, he hoped the Elders could shed light on what happened if Cohesion hit someone with Transportation (@DrakeMarshall)

I suppose no Transportation would occur in that case. Cohesion has a way of bringing things down to earth.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, Ookla the Irreplaceable said:

He shrugged, not understanding a word he had just said. "Funny thing, ain't it, the fact that you didn't even remark at the fact that I hurled a storming coin at you. Most people would react, you... you're not from around here, or anywhere near it. Somewhere where these are a lot more common.

"People are being murdered in this village, and your reaction is to only care about tossing coins at people? I don't think you're one of the murderers, but that's pretty anti-social behaviour. Would make a fellow wonder why you even bothered coming to Ru Eris."

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

...rumor has it that this one of the fell powers of Re-Shephir, whose midnight children can be in several places at once and are quite proficient at killing.

Volo was, specifically, asking about Yelig-Nar in that context, rather than Re-Shepir, due to wanting to know if using Yelig-Nar forced all actions by the same person to target the same victim.

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

I suppose no Transportation would occur in that case. Cohesion has a way of bringing things down to earth.

Volo considered that nugget of lore from the Elders carefully. If so, then it could not be ruled out that Volo had Transportation. It was a little less informative than Volo had hoped.

He did consider as well concerns with Arenta and Transformation, but his general view was that it was too early in the day to broach them, and he would only feel more concerned past the midday mark. In short, he did not appreciate the thought of his vote being potentially hijacked by Arenta. However, in the world Jonoh was genuinely a murderer, unless Jonoh had used Sja-Anat's powers, it seemed likely that Arenta had Progression. He supposed there was as well a marginal world in which Jonoh had Progression and ended up visiting his own victim while using Sja-Anat, but that seemed unlikely. The other option in a Sja-Anat world was Jonoh using Transformation to hijack Volo's suspicions, which Volo was not appreciating.

Edited to add:

A thought occurred to Volo. While he was still convinced they had to check Jonoh first, he was not averse to exploring the logical space of possibilities that Jonoh was appealing to. He turned to Giethri ( @stiltedmoth ) , who'd apparently been scammed by sailors who were supposed to take her to Herdaz.

"By any chance, did you have any messages with Matoro?" he asked her.

In his view, if Giethri could be ruled out from having Adhesion or Abrasion, it was easier to narrow the possibility space when it came to Jonoh's claims.

...He figured he might need a table to explain that to the viewers on his stream.

Edited December 13, 2024 by Ookla the Villager

[Lord Spirit he/him]

8 hours ago, Ookla the Villager said:

Jonoh's picking on the most obvious target and 180 from previous suspicion of Sever seemed odd to Volo.

He wondered how you got from suspicion of Sever:

Jonoh wondered what the “steamer”, as people were calling him, was thinking. While Jonoh had had some suspicions about Sever, there hasn’t been strong enough to cast a vote. And it seemed unlikely for Sever to claim illumination when it would almost certainly lead to his death if he was found to be lying. That was a good enough reason to convince Jonoh of his innocence, although he couldn’t rule Sever out entirely.

If they thought him suspicious for voting Matoro, he hoped they would remember that Matoro had approached Jonoh and claimed to have not visited anyone. While this was confusing, one explanation would be that he had tried and failed to kill Volomir, and then decided it was too risky to claim a visit to someone else in case they got caught lying. They hoped that people would decide this behavior odd but not villainous, but Jonoh thought otherwise. 

[TwinStorm He/Him]

8 hours ago, Ookla the Villager said:

"People are being murdered in this village, and your reaction is to only care about tossing coins at people? I don't think you're one of the murderers, but that's pretty anti-social behaviour. Would make a fellow wonder why you even bothered coming to Ru Eris."

Volo was, specifically, asking about Yelig-Nar in that context, rather than Re-Shepir, due to wanting to know if using Yelig-Nar forced all actions by the same person to target the same victim.

Volo considered that nugget of lore from the Elders carefully. If so, then it could not be ruled out that Volo had Transportation. It was a little less informative than Volo had hoped.

He did consider as well concerns with Arenta and Transformation, but his general view was that it was too early in the day to broach them, and he would only feel more concerned past the midday mark. In short, he did not appreciate the thought of his vote being potentially hijacked by Arenta. However, in the world Jonoh was genuinely a murderer, unless Jonoh had used Sja-Anat's powers, it seemed likely that Arenta had Progression. He supposed there was as well a marginal world in which Jonoh had Progression and ended up visiting his own victim while using Sja-Anat, but that seemed unlikely. The other option in a Sja-Anat world was Jonoh using Transformation to hijack Volo's suspicions, which Volo was not appreciating.

Edited to add:

A thought occurred to Volo. While he was still convinced they had to check Jonoh first, he was not averse to exploring the logical space of possibilities that Jonoh was appealing to. He turned to Giethri ( @stiltedmoth ) , who'd apparently been scammed by sailors who were supposed to take her to Herdaz.

"By any chance, did you have any messages with Matoro?" he asked her.

In his view, if Giethri could be ruled out from having Adhesion or Abrasion, it was easier to narrow the possibility space when it came to Jonoh's claims.

...He figured he might need a table to explain that to the viewers on his stream.

"I ain't anti-social, just busy. Earning coin is a hard business, especially to feed your family."

[Ookla de los Cuervos he/him]

11 hours ago, Ookla the Villager said:

murder was an action, and as such, took time. Ordinarily, someone could not both kill and use a Surge at the same time—there wasn't enough hours in Ru Eris for this. 

Sever had forgotten to make note of this, and reminded himself that no one had died the night before.

he gives a suspicious stare to Volo. "I dont think i caught who you were visiting last night. who was it?"

[CadCom he/him]

Metorem knew there were many discussions happening without him. He was hurrying as fast as he could to complete his papers to renew his stormwarden certification, and meticulously auspicious process that had to be completed at least once a year. 

But the timing couldn't be more exaggeratedly detrimental to what Run Eris needed at that exact moment, which she'd negative light on Metorem. So he haphazardededly finished his papers and returned to the Leaky Bucket where most had gathered. 

Upon opening the doors, he was immediately bombarded with questions about his whereabouts and actions from last night. 

"Oh that's easy. I followed the new guy in auspiciously suspicious of. Giethri I believe his name was"

"For anyone wondering his true intentions, I know not. But what I do know is that we were able to speak enough that now feel comfortable speaking with him in private whenever I feel like. Though he has been rather uncooperative in speaking back. Rather it's a location for me to monologate to an exclusive assemblage of one.

(As in I've tried speaking in private once, and that's it)

"From the accusations I've heard floating around, it appears most are suspicious of Jonoh or Matoro? Is that correct?"

[Ookla de los Cuervos he/him]

11 hours ago, Ookla the Irreplaceable said:

He shrugged, not understanding a word he had just said. "Funny thing, ain't it, the fact that you didn't even remark at the fact that I hurled a storming coin at you. Most people would react, you... you're not from around here, or anywhere near it. Somewhere where these are a lot more common.

Sever took this as a claim that he visited Volo in the night. "And, what did you learn, or do, if anything?" he pushed.

[CadCom he/him]

1 hour ago, Ookla de los cuervos said:

Sever took this as a claim that he visited Volo in the night. "And, what did you learn, or do, if anything?" he pushed.

Metorem approached, 

"Pardon the ubiquitous interruption, but from my meticulatory perceptions, it is apparent at least to me that the good man Matoro, for whom we share near homogenous etymologies, may not have been aware he had the opportunity to attempt to use a surge on one of us his neighbors last night." 

Then turning to others who may have been listening, he continued,

"From my past experience during my intrepid world travels, generally, when subterfuge abounds, people willing to claim information so early in the crucible are often trustitudinous and verificatious. For that reason I will trust the claims of Sever the Shin, and I'll aggregate my suspicions in Jonoh. 

"If I find myself to be equivocated in my suspicions and truste, you have my word, by weeks end, I'll take my own leg and that of Sever the Shin, and sever the shin on both legs. That is my level of confidence"

Quote

Don't have too much fun with the write-up if I'm wrong. I gave myself until weeks end for a reason 

 

Edited December 13, 2024 by CadCom
Added verificatious

[Ookla de los Cuervos he/him]

6 minutes ago, CadCom said:

Metorem approached, 

"Pardon the ubiquitous interruption, but from my meticulatory perceptions, it is apparent at least to me that the good man Matoro, for whom we share near homogenous etymologies, may not have been aware he had the opportunity to attempt to use a surge on one of us his neighbors last night." 

Then turning to others who may have been listening, he continued,

"From my past experience during my intrepid world travels, generally, when subterfuge abounds, people willing to claim information so early in the crucible are often trustitudinous and verificatious. For that reason I will trust the claims of Sever the Shin, and I'll aggregate my suspicions in Jonoh. 

"If I find myself to be equivocated in my suspicions and truste, you have my word, by weeks end, I'll take my own leg and that of Sever the Shin, and sever the shin on both legs. That is my level of confidence"

 

sever opens and closes his mouth, having little idea what the man just said but got the general idea. he sighs. "Did you visit a person last night?"

[CadCom he/him]

10 minutes ago, Ookla de los cuervos said:

sever opens and closes his mouth, having little idea what the man just said but got the general idea. he sighs. "Did you visit a person last night?"

As a matter of fact, I did. I visited the man I did not trust yesterday. He did not share his true intentions with me, but I did trust him enough to be willing to have future private conversations with him

[Ookla de los Cuervos he/him]

1 minute ago, CadCom said:

As a matter of fact, I did. I visited the man I did not trust yesterday. He did not share his true intentions with me, but I did trust him enough to be willing to have future private conversations with him

"So you got him in a private place? so what your saying is that you claim to hold the surge of adhesion or whatever it was?"

[stiltedmoth she/her]

Giethri raised a hand in greeting as Metorem entered the inn. "How goes the paper?" she asked. "I can confirm Metorem left me a message, though I have been rather too busy myself to reply." A small gesture to her still-damp attire emphasised her point. "Abraision or Adhesion that would make it? Either way, not involved in whatever was going on with Volo. And to answer your question Volo, I don't have any messages with Matoro. Rules out a couple of surges for me I suppose."

If Volo was certain that someone had tried to kill him last night then unless one of the Unmade's strange powers were at play then Metorem had to be innocent. His word seemed trustworthy too, after placing the final vote on Cillian the previous day. With Sever's accusations against Jonoh the prepper still was the most suspicious person in the town, without Unmade powers the would-be killer couldn't both carry out the kill and swap with Jonoh, even if they had the foresight to. No, by Kelek's razor, or whatever the saying was, Jonoh was who they were looking for.

[CadCom he/him]

1 minute ago, stiltedmoth said:

If Volo was certain that someone had tried to kill him last night then unless one of the Unmade's strange powers were at play then Metorem had to be innocent. His word seemed trustworthy too, after placing the final vote on Cillian the previous day. With Sever's accusations against Jonoh the prepper still was the most suspicious person in the town, without Unmade powers the would-be killer couldn't both carry out the kill and swap with Jonoh, even if they had the foresight to. No, by Kelek's razor, or whatever the saying was, Jonoh was who they were looking for.

"I actually had voted to execute you."

12 minutes ago, Ookla de los cuervos said:

"So you got him in a private place? so what your saying is that you claim to hold the surge of adhesion or whatever it was?"

"Yes, as Giethri stated, it appears I either have abrasion or adhesion. I'll let you know more after tonight" 

[Lord Spirit he/him]

1 hour ago, stiltedmoth said:

Giethri raised a hand in greeting as Metorem entered the inn. "How goes the paper?" she asked. "I can confirm Metorem left me a message, though I have been rather too busy myself to reply." A small gesture to her still-damp attire emphasised her point. "Abraision or Adhesion that would make it? Either way, not involved in whatever was going on with Volo. And to answer your question Volo, I don't have any messages with Matoro. Rules out a couple of surges for me I suppose."

If Volo was certain that someone had tried to kill him last night then unless one of the Unmade's strange powers were at play then Metorem had to be innocent. His word seemed trustworthy too, after placing the final vote on Cillian the previous day. With Sever's accusations against Jonoh the prepper still was the most suspicious person in the town, without Unmade powers the would-be killer couldn't both carry out the kill and swap with Jonoh, even if they had the foresight to. No, by Kelek's razor, or whatever the saying was, Jonoh was who they were looking for.

@DrakeMarshall Your writeup had a character that might have been an Unmade. Is this confirmed, or is it up to us to decide?

[TwinStorm He/Him]

4 hours ago, Ookla de los cuervos said:

Sever took this as a claim that he visited Volo in the night. "And, what did you learn, or do, if anything?" he pushed.

Matoro frowned. "What do you mean?"

[CadCom he/him]

27 minutes ago, Ookla the Irreplaceable said:

Matoro frowned. "What do you mean?"

"We mean to ask if you advised the elders whether you had intentions to visit anyone over right to see if you had any surge ability"

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Did you use any actions last night in your GM PM?

Stupid mobile formatting

 

[Kasimir he/him]

5 hours ago, Ookla de los cuervos said:

he gives a suspicious stare to Volo. "I dont think i caught who you were visiting last night. who was it?"

Apparently, the fact Volo had said this at least three different times was insufficient for Sever  

On 12/12/2024 at 8:56 PM, Ookla the Villager said:

He'd also rested poorly as he'd spent the night first trying to use any Surge he might have had on Metorem and then trying not to die.

17 hours ago, Ookla the Villager said:

Third, they had those visiting Metorem, which seemed to be just Volo.

17 hours ago, Ookla the Villager said:

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C6. Volo himself, as he stated, had visited Metorem.

There was, however, other news.

2 hours ago, stiltedmoth said:

Giethri raised a hand in greeting as Metorem entered the inn. "How goes the paper?" she asked. "I can confirm Metorem left me a message, though I have been rather too busy myself to reply." A small gesture to her still-damp attire emphasised her point. "Abraision or Adhesion that would make it? Either way, not involved in whatever was going on with Volo. And to answer your question Volo, I don't have any messages with Matoro. Rules out a couple of surges for me I suppose."

Giethri's confirmation of a message with Metorem made it more likely that Metorem genuinely had Abrasion or Adhesion, due to independent corroboration. As Giethri had correctly suggested, this indeed ruled out Progression, Illumnination, Abrasion, or Adhesion for her, narrowing the pool which Jonoh was relying on to generate alternative hypotheses.

It also did indicate Volo likely lacked Cohesion, for Metorem had successfully carried out an action. 

He carefully outlined the table he had been working on for the stream, to allow viewers to keep up, and no doubt, to correct him. The theoretical space for Transportation was rather large, but Volo did not particularly see that as an issue. While he wondered if such a table would be unfriendly in the hands of the enemy, he supposed viewer engagement came first (and anyway, they could probably work it out for themselves!)

Spoiler

Either way, nothing Jonoh was saying was particularly convincing Volo to change paths at the moment. Matoro was the most opportunistic and lowest-hanging counter-proposal available (minded of a sort of scam in the markets of Nalthis where the scammer would make an insultingly cheap offer in order to swindle you into buying counterfeits) - the suggestion that Matoro was not saying anything to avoid being caught in a lie seemed particularly strange: for one, with no ability to really narrow down the Surges and with Jonoh doing his utmost to drum uncertainty by generating all sorts of speculation surrounding esoteric scenarios with Unmade and alternative Surges, this was clearly evidence that it was possible to claim any target and not get caught for it. (They had, for one, zero evidence that Jonoh really had targeted Volo with a Surge, even if there was also no evidence against it.) Too, if Jonoh truly believed the Unmade had been involved, then once again, anyone could have put the kill in, and they returned to needing to do basic investigative work. Work that Jonoh, it seemed, had declined to do for the softest target.

For another, the basic play remained.

From what Volo understood from those social deduction streams, if they were in an endgame situation, where a single mistake was costly, then perhaps the calculus would be different. However, they were not, and any attempt to insist they were would be rampant scaremongering. If they were not, then the play for a claimed scan on a criminal was clear. It was certainly true the scan was probabilistic rather than mechanistic, but this did not change the need to play towards the most likely scenario, rather than a series of contrived occurrences that needed to happen altogether for the proposed scenario to occur. (Again, nothing Jonoh contended - every single claim about Matoro lying about his action - still required Unmade action, and Unmade action specifically targeting both Sever and with the exactly correct Unmade, due to the laws of time levelling constraints on actions.)

Suppose they were really wrong about Jonoh. If Jonoh was really a townsman of Ru Eris, he should not consider that a problem, for if it were open-and-shut obviously Matoro, then they would execute Matoro next, and Ru Eris's nightmare would end. (If Jonoh protested it was not so easy, then Volo believed it should be taken as tacit admission the case was not so straightforward as that. He also wondered who Jonoh intended to accuse next in the world Matoro was executed. For him, in the world Jonoh was discovered by the Elders to have been a Villager, then Volo intended to examine Matoro and Metorem*, with a slight preference for Matoro due to Metorem's clearly having used a Surge. He thought Arenta might be an outsider possibility but for the moment, he thought that she was behaving in what he'd consider to be pretty normal for a grouchy landlady in her Matoro accusation, though he could be convinced otherwise.)

Volo acknowledged he was not saying this aloud to the others; he was, more than not, working through the possibilities to once again determine his position on the issue. As Volo did not think he could make it back before the day ended, due to the need to work on the rest of his upcoming stream, he felt it was worth considering if he was truly committed, knowing the possibility for error, or condemning an innocent man to death.

*One could ask why Matoro and Metorem, to which Volo would once again recite - everyone started from a default position of suspicion and then exonerated or made themselves more suspicion by their actions. In short, Sever looked the most innocent from the first day, and Volo thought he wanted to give Giethri some credit for first accusing Cillian, even if she could have been trying to distance from him. While Cillian's seconding of Arenta's vote made them appear unpartnered, Volo was not sure how much load that assumption would bear. Nevertheless, if he struck Arenta from the pool as well, despite misgivings, considering her behaviour today, he was left with Matoro and Metorem who had not in some way appeared innocent. This world assumed that Ru Eris was still endangered and Jonoh was innocent. While they played to the most likely of all worlds, Volo always felt that it was basic decency: if you wanted to condemn a scammer to prison (or, he supposed, a criminal to execution), you had better consider the other options and the way forward, if it had to be mapped in their blood.

2 hours ago, Ookla de los cuervos said:

"So you got him in a private place? so what your saying is that you claim to hold the surge of adhesion or whatever it was?"

Volo said, not unkindly, "Sever, supposing the worst case scenario, if Jonoh is not in fact the culprit, and if they kill me successfully tonight, you will really need to pay closer attention to what people have been telling you rather than repeatedly asking them it. As the person with Illumination, you need to be on the ball." He really hoped that translated well to a Rosharan. Adonalsium only knew how Tarachin expressions translated sometimes.

"You are their Radiant," he added. Perhaps it was easier to translate than the colloquial, "You are their Mistborn now."

(There were worlds where the murderers went for Sever, as he was no doubt a much higher priority, but the way Volo thought of it, it really didn't matter in those worlds as Sever would be too dead to care about what was going on next.)

[TwinStorm He/Him]

5 minutes ago, CadCom said:

"We mean to ask if you advised the elders whether you had intentions to visit anyone over right to see if you had any surge ability"

 

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No

He laughed. "Surges? No, I have no such power."

[Kasimir he/him]

Edited to add:

(Storming thread ninjas.)

In sum, Jonoh could not have it both ways. If Jonoh wanted to insist incredibly specific Unmade powers that might or might not have been granted the murderers hitting the exactly correct targets, then there was no particular reason to believe it was Matoro over anyone else who had an accounted-for action. It could just as easily be a Midnight Essence kill with the murderer having actually used their genuine Surge. 

If Jonoh wanted to insist it was the Surge of Transportation, then supposing Volo did not make up his own death and salvation, then working directly off claims, the logical space for that was purely in <Arenta, Jonoh, Matoro, Volo.> Metorem had provably used one of Abrasion or Adhesion due to Giethri's corroboration, and Sever's claim was distinctive. 

Both arguments ran on distinctive tracks and should not be conflated.