Shouldn't Odium Know?

[JohnnyKaizen he/him]

I was getting ready this morning and this thought hit me like a bolt out of the sky. It was Taravangian who discovered that Odium couldn't see Renarin's future, and also him who later saw that this effect was spreading to everyone around him. AFAIK the only other person in the Cosmere who *might* know this is Cultivation, assuming it's a part of her plan(s).

 

That said, the only person we *on screen* are confirmed who knows this, is Taravangian himself. So, why does he sound so confident at the end of RoW? Shouldn't he, better than anyone, know that his ability to see what's going to happen is extremely limited when it comes to the leadership of Urithiru, considering Renarin has deep connection to every important person in the tower kingdom? 

Am I missing something here? Because it really feels like one of those Brandon things where he presents something like "the loophole" but the character who has seemingly discovered said loophole, has already demonstrated on screen, why there is a problem with that.

Edit: Dalinar and Renarin also know, because Renarin tells him in RoW

Edited October 11, 2024 by JohnnyKaizen
Correcting an error

[+Lewis Nethur He/Him]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyKaizen said:

I was getting ready this morning and this thought hit me like a bolt out of the sky. It was Taravangian who discovered that Odium couldn't see Renarin's future, and also him who later saw that this effect was spreading to everyone around him. AFAIK the only other person in the Cosmere who *might* know this is Cultivation, assuming it's a part of her plan(s).

 

That said, the only person we *on screen* are confirmed who knows this, is Taravangian himself. So, why does he sound so confident at the end of RoW? Shouldn't he, better than anyone, know that his ability to see what's going to happen is extremely limited when it comes to the leadership of Urithiru, considering Renarin has deep connection to every important person in the tower kingdom? 

Am I missing something here? Because it really feels like one of those Brandon things where he presents something like "the loophole" but the character who has seemingly discovered said loophole, has already demonstrated on screen, why there is a problem with that.

Odium's confidence is most likely still very warranted unfortunately. His work on the diagram made him the ideal candidate for ascension and it's easy to believe that, at least on an intuitive level, he understood and operated with some level of awareness about the limitations and potential weaknesses of godly futuresight even as a mortal. The only solutions here are, I expect, going to be painfully ironic for everyone who isn't Odium, who pretty much already got what he came for and way way more besides. Even if he gets killed and replaced at this point, he essentially already won the personal war which he had been conducting from the shadows for the last decade or so and no one can change that without a time machine.

[JohnnyKaizen he/him]

23 minutes ago, hwiles said:

Odium's confidence is most likely still very warranted unfortunately. His work on the diagram made him the ideal candidate for ascension and it's easy to believe that, at least on an intuitive level, he understood and operated with some level of awareness about the limitations and potential weaknesses of godly futuresight even as a mortal. The only solutions here are, I expect, going to be painfully ironic for everyone who isn't Odium, who pretty much already got what he came for and way way more besides. Even if he gets killed and replaced at this point, he essentially already won the personal war which he had been conducting from the shadows for the last decade or so and no one can change that without a time machine.

I just don't know how you make plans, even as a god, if you literally can't see your opponent(s). He shouldn't be able to see Dalinar or any other main characters, and if he couldn't, that feels like something substantial enough, that he should have mentioned it in his own thougths, since that's what we were basically hearing at the time? I may be wrong, and TOdium may be in the driver's seat and everyone is screwed, but until I read otherwise, right now I'm feeling like there isn't a loophole. I feel like Taravangian ascended to the towering heights of godhood, became enamored with his ability to see what's coming expanded into nigh on infinity, and he forgot a basic truth he knew as a lowly human with (what is now truthfully) diminished capacity. And because he's forgotten that, he thinks he knows where all this is going, and he's likely to fall prey to the same trap his predecessor fell headlong into multiple times (and Rayse was super confident everytime he was defeated as well...truly seemed baffled every time). 

Honestly, Rayse makes me think all the more that Taravangian has forgotten about this lapse in futuresight, because Rayse never once (seemingly) sat back and asked the question, "Why is all this going wrong if I saw it happening? What's messing with my godly abilities?" considering just how monumentally wrong we was, over and over. Because if he had, he could have sent every fused he had to kill off Renarin post haste, and then would have had no more problems. Either that, or TOdium is going after Renarin (and by extention Rlain and anyone else who bonds an enlightened Truthwatcher spren) in SA5, I guess? 

[+Lewis Nethur He/Him]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyKaizen said:

I just don't know how you make plans, even as a god, if you literally can't see your opponent(s). He shouldn't be able to see...

They'll just have to conduct the operation without certainty or guarantees, exactly like how all wars are fought...=)

They're reactionary and ad hoc in nature, with lies and deceit being key tools and ghoulish attacks of misdirection being a favored weapon. Book 5 is going to be very interesting, especially if they find enough truthwatchers (enlightened or otherwise) to make it hard for cultivation, who is basically sitting on the sidelines near as I can tell, to be able to see and engage proactively...

[JohnnyKaizen he/him]

2 minutes ago, hwiles said:

They'll just have to conduct the operation without certainty or guarantees, exactly like how all wars are fought...=)

They're reactionary and ad hoc in nature, with lies and deceit being key tools and ghoulish attacks of misdirection being a favored weapon. Book 5 is going to be very interesting, especially if they find enough truthwatchers (enlightened or otherwise) to make it hard for cultivation, who is basically sitting on the sidelines near as I can tell, to be able to see and engage proactively...

O I am definitely hoping for dozens and dozens of Truthwatchers for sure.

[Treamayne]

1 hour ago, JohnnyKaizen said:

That said, the only person we *on screen* are confirmed who knows this, is Taravangian himself.

Not correct. Renarin and Dalinar know (and others may have been told off-screen). RoW Ch 54:

Spoiler

nything else you see?”

See the blackness that will be, Renarin? Glys said.

“Friction between the two of you,” Renarin said, pointing up at the stained glass. “And a blackness interfering, marring the beauty of the window. Like a sickness infecting both of you, at the edges.”

“Curious,” Dalinar said, looking where Renarin had pointed, though he’d see only empty air. “I wonder if we’ll ever know what that represents.”

“Oh, that one’s easy, Father,” Renarin said. “That’s me.”

“Renarin, I don’t think you should see yourself as—”

“You needn’t try to protect my ego, Father. When Glys and I bonded, we became … something new. We see the future. At first I was confused at my place—but I’ve come to understand. What I see interferes with Odium’s ability. Because I can see possibilities of the future, my knowledge changes what I will do. Therefore, his ability to see my future is obscured. Anyone close to me is difficult for him to read.”

“I find that comforting,” Dalinar said, putting his arm around Renarin’s shoulders. “Whatever you are, son, it’s a blessing. You might be a different kind of Radiant, but you’re Radiant all the same. You shouldn’t feel you need to hide this or your spren.”

That said, it is unlikely that the obfuscation extends to everything about the people near Renarain. Rather, it is more likely that events in which Renarin is participating, and the people with him are obfuscated. Furthermore, other events around those most Connected to Renarin are worse than obfuscated, they are simply more likely to be wrong (even though seen as-if clear). 

ROdium saw things about Dalinar before the Battle of Thaylenah that led him to be confident of Dalinar's fall (as was Renarin himself) - it was not blacked out like things Renarin is directly involved in - but that is a piece that Taravangian did not know. He expects to the able to trust what is not obfuscated (and needing to plan for what is hidden) so TOdium will likely still have a blind spot in being able to account for how probabilities shift when thought clear, and that is the bigger weakness in my mind. 

[JohnnyKaizen he/him]

6 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

Not correct. Renarin and Dalinar know (and others may have been told off-screen). RoW Ch 54:

I had forgotten all about this, thank you for the reminder. It's much better, IMO, that Dalinar and Renarin do know.

 

 

6 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

ROdium saw things about Dalinar before the Battle of Thaylenah that led him to be confident of Dalinar's fall (as was Renarin himself) - it was not blacked out like things Renarin is directly involved in - but that is a piece that Taravangian did not know. He expects to the able to trust what is not obfuscated (and needing to plan for what is hidden) so TOdium will likely still have a blind spot in being able to account for how probabilities shift when thought clear, and that is the bigger weakness in my mind. 

I am all for anything and everything that makes TOdium's life more difficult because he's the worst. This all just feels too Brandon-y to me atm. There have been dozens (if not hundreds) of threads about the loophole..what it is..what it will mean..who will die..etc. But, what if all of that falls apart for TOdium? And if that were to happen, what would that mean for the Cosmere, and how would that fit into the bits and piece we know from stories that take place in the future of SA? I recognize that I could be way off on this, but I really really really want it to be true 

[Treamayne]

10 minutes ago, JohnnyKaizen said:

There have been dozens (if not hundreds) of threads about the loophole..what it is..what it will mean..who will die..etc. But, what if all of that falls apart for TOdium?

I am avoiding everything SA5 until I have the final book in-hand - so while I have seen those threads I have not read them. Either way, it always seemed important to me that (Mistborn Spoilers):

Spoiler

Ati/Ruin already showed us what happens when a Shard blindly trusts in what they see in the branching possibilities of Fortune. And Rayse already showed that he could be entirely wrong about "certainties" he knew. So I put no special stock in Taravangian's "reveals" at the end of RoW - except to expect him to be as surprised as we-the-readers will be at whatever happens. 

 

Edited October 11, 2024 by Treamayne
SPAG

[JohnnyKaizen he/him]

18 minutes ago, Treamayne said:

I am avoiding everything SA5 until I have the final book in-hand - so while I have seen those threads I have not read them. Either way, it always seemed important to me that (Mistborn Spoilers):

Same, I stopped reading them when info about SA5 became available, but there were tons of them from just after RoW onward, and they are widely varied, but most (or at least many of them) seem to assume that TOdium has "already won" in some way or another. With that being the predominant view, it makes me feel like Brandon has once again left hanging literary bait out there so tantalizing for the futuresight fans, that they may miss a very basic truth already presented to them in the same book, by the same person.

I won't quote the spoiler tagged stuff, but I also agree there as well.

Edited October 11, 2024 by JohnnyKaizen

[alder24]

6 hours ago, JohnnyKaizen said:

I was getting ready this morning and this thought hit me like a bolt out of the sky. It was Taravangian who discovered that Odium couldn't see Renarin's future, and also him who later saw that this effect was spreading to everyone around him. AFAIK the only other person in the Cosmere who *might* know this is Cultivation, assuming it's a part of her plan(s).

 

That said, the only person we *on screen* are confirmed who knows this, is Taravangian himself. So, why does he sound so confident at the end of RoW? Shouldn't he, better than anyone, know that his ability to see what's going to happen is extremely limited when it comes to the leadership of Urithiru, considering Renarin has deep connection to every important person in the tower kingdom? 

Am I missing something here? Because it really feels like one of those Brandon things where he presents something like "the loophole" but the character who has seemingly discovered said loophole, has already demonstrated on screen, why there is a problem with that.

Edit: Dalinar and Renarin also know, because Renarin tells him in RoW

Future sight doesn't deal with certainties, it deals with probabilities. Odium can see Renarin's future, but he sees a lot of different probabilities and the same applies to everyone around Renarin. Odium probably is aware of that and acted in a way to assure that his chosen probability would be fulfilled. Sometimes he failed (battle of Thaylen Field), sometimes he succeeded (making Dalinar leave the Tower in RoW). Taravangian knows this and spotted a faint possibility which Rayse had missed. Now it's Taravangian's job to arrange everything to make this future reality. 

Taravangian saw a chance to arrange the contest of champions in his favor and he took it. It doesn't mean it will happen, it means it can happen. We don't know what Taravangian saw, but this might be a possibility that guarantees high chances of success, or even some kind of checkmate - once everything is set in motion, Odium wins no matter what Dalinar will do. Maybe that's why Taravangian was so confident. But I think his confidence comes because he spotted a chance of success, rather than certainty of success - he's aware he can still fail. 

Mistborn spoilers:

Spoiler

We saw this kind of checkmate at the end of Era 1. Eland saw that Ruin was pushed in the corner and Elend's death will make Vin sacrifice herself and kill Ruin. Elend saw that there was nothing Ruin could do to prevent this future if he allowed Marsh to kill him - which he did. No amount of Shardic future vision could save Ruin at this point.

Spoiler

Sylos

I was happy when Elend finally burned duralumin with atium. I was holding my breath hoping that someone would eventually do it. However we didn't really get any info as to what Elend experienced. Does a duralumin-enhanced atium burn allow a person to see significantly farther into the future? If so, being that Elend's army was dying all around him did he get to see into the afterlife? Also if you could tell us what he saw that would be awesome. Did something he saw make him not want to avoid Marshes strike?

On a similar note if someone burned electrum with duralumin would they get to see significantly into their own future?

Brandon Sanderson

There is much here that I can't say, but I'll give as much as I can. Elend saw Preservation's ultimate plan, and Elend's own part in it. What he saw made him realize he didn't want to kill Marsh, and that his own death would actually help save the world. Like a master chess player, he suddenly saw and understand every possible move his enemy could make. He saw that Ruin was check-mated, because there was one thing that Ruin was not willing to do. Something that both Elend and Vin could do, if needed. And it's what they did.

So, in answer to your question, Elend stayed his hand. This is one of the reasons why I changed my mind and decided that Marsh had to live through the end of the book. Elend spared him; I needed to too.

Hero of Ages Q&A - Time Waster's Guide (Oct. 15, 2008)

 

 

[Returned he/him]

There's also an element of theatrics to that scene between Rayse and Taravangian, I think. What Taravangian saw during Odium's display struck me more as a representation of Odium's future-sight powers rather than a tidily organized summary of what Rayse knew about the future. If so, then the piece about Renarin that drew Taravangian's eye showed a gap in Rayse's knowledge of which Rayse wasn't properly aware. Sort of like if Rayse had a complex tattoo on his back based on a picture he showed to a tattoo artist: he might know what he expects is in that tattoo, but it's beyond him to actually look at it directly and know that some element or other is different from the picture. We could look at the tattoo on his back and know things about it much more easily. Maybe not a great analogy...

But more broadly we have seen repeatedly that future-sight isn't decisively effective or reliable in the Cosmere. We don't know how deterministic the future is, how much future-sight allows the future to be changed, how aware Shards are of their own ability to use future-sight, nor how much various Shards depend (or depended) on future-sight for their plans.

I would bet that Taravangian is aware that some of his information can be wrong, or at least that he can be mistaken (hard to avoid, given that he saw what happened to the preceding Odium). But he's not slavishly following some recipe for the future-- he expects that he has the intelligence, power, resources, and will to win in any conflict whether he has foreseen it or not. Future-sight is a tool with nontrivial limitations and we don't truly know if overreliance on it or overconfidence in it were really what caused Rayse's end. Taravangian already has first-hand experience with exactly this issue: the Diagram was amazingly predictive, but not only did he know he lacked the ability to fully understand or interpret it, he also had to make adjustments in the world and their suppositions about the Diagram so that everything would stay on course for what his best guesses indicated the Diagram meant.

[JohnnyKaizen he/him]

5 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Future sight doesn't deal with certainties, it deals with probabilities. Odium can see Renarin's future, but he sees a lot of different probabilities and the same applies to everyone around Renarin. Odium probably is aware of that and acted in a way to assure that his chosen probability would be fulfilled. Sometimes he failed (battle of Thaylen Field), sometimes he succeeded (making Dalinar leave the Tower in RoW). Taravangian knows this and spotted a faint possibility which Rayse had missed. Now it's Taravangian's job to arrange everything to make this future reality. 

Taravangian saw a chance to arrange the contest of champions in his favor and he took it. It doesn't mean it will happen, it means it can happen. We don't know what Taravangian saw, but this might be a possibility that guarantees high chances of success, or even some kind of checkmate - once everything is set in motion, Odium wins no matter what Dalinar will do. Maybe that's why Taravangian was so confident. But I think his confidence comes because he spotted a chance of success, rather than certainty of success - he's aware he can still fail. 

Mistborn spoilers:

  Hide contents

We saw this kind of checkmate at the end of Era 1. Eland saw that Ruin was pushed in the corner and Elend's death will make Vin sacrifice herself and kill Ruin. Elend saw that there was nothing Ruin could do to prevent this future if he allowed Marsh to kill him - which he did. No amount of Shardic future vision could save Ruin at this point.

  Hide contents

Sylos

I was happy when Elend finally burned duralumin with atium. I was holding my breath hoping that someone would eventually do it. However we didn't really get any info as to what Elend experienced. Does a duralumin-enhanced atium burn allow a person to see significantly farther into the future? If so, being that Elend's army was dying all around him did he get to see into the afterlife? Also if you could tell us what he saw that would be awesome. Did something he saw make him not want to avoid Marshes strike?

On a similar note if someone burned electrum with duralumin would they get to see significantly into their own future?

Brandon Sanderson

There is much here that I can't say, but I'll give as much as I can. Elend saw Preservation's ultimate plan, and Elend's own part in it. What he saw made him realize he didn't want to kill Marsh, and that his own death would actually help save the world. Like a master chess player, he suddenly saw and understand every possible move his enemy could make. He saw that Ruin was check-mated, because there was one thing that Ruin was not willing to do. Something that both Elend and Vin could do, if needed. And it's what they did.

So, in answer to your question, Elend stayed his hand. This is one of the reasons why I changed my mind and decided that Marsh had to live through the end of the book. Elend spared him; I needed to too.

Hero of Ages Q&A - Time Waster's Guide (Oct. 15, 2008)

 

 

I don't have access to a digital copy of RoW, but I could have sworn that TOdium said something along the lines of, "Nearly all of the probabilities (or maybe timeslines? IDR)" when it came to his plan about the challenge. I definitely understand that he's working off probabilities..most likely millions (if not many more) at a time. IF I am remembering that line correctly, wouldn't his limitation around Renarin and the upper echelon of Urithiru mean that he'd have a much harder time "check-mating" Dalinar? 

I might not know until I read SA5, or maybe my brain just won't let go of it until then? 

[alder24]

10 minutes ago, JohnnyKaizen said:

I don't have access to a digital copy of RoW, but I could have sworn that TOdium said something along the lines of, "Nearly all of the probabilities (or maybe timeslines? IDR)" when it came to his plan about the challenge. I definitely understand that he's working off probabilities..most likely millions (if not many more) at a time. IF I am remembering that line correctly, wouldn't his limitation around Renarin and the upper echelon of Urithiru mean that he'd have a much harder time "check-mating" Dalinar? 

The "nearly all possibilities" thing was about Szeth confusing Rayse's bones for Taravangian. He saw a few subtle possibilities when spotting the loophole - so yes, he had much harder time spotting those possibilities, so much harder that Rayse had missed them and it required a fresh mind to do that. RoW ch 114:

Quote

They think that’s me, Taravangian thought, reading the possible futures. Szeth didn’t see what happened to me spiritually. He doesn’t know Odium was here.
Almost all possible futures agreed. Szeth would confess that he’d gone to kill Taravangian, but somehow Taravangian had drawn Nightblood—and the weapon had consumed him.
[...]
“They showed you this possibility, I assume,” Taravangian said, looking at infinity. “But this isn’t nearly as … certain as I imagined it. It shows you things that can happen, but not the hearts of those who act. How did you dare try something like this? How did you know I’d be up to the challenge?”
“I didn’t,” she said. “I couldn’t. You were heading this direction—all I could do was hope that if you succeeded, my gift would work. That I had changed you into someone who could bear this power with honor.”
[...]
It can still be done, Taravangian realized, seeing the possibilities—so subtle—that his predecessor had missed. Yes … Dalinar has set himself up … to fail. I can beat him.

He might have spotted a checkmate, but he still has to arrange everything, which can be countered by the Coalition. But if everything goes right when the contest happens, Dalinar will have no choice which is a future worth the risk - even if that will be hard to do. Unlikely doesn't mean impossible, Shards can still arrange for this to happen - Cultivation did it with Taravangian after all.

Mistborn spoilers:

Spoiler

Vin's Ascension was a faint possibility, so unlikely that even Leras was losing hope. Ruin knew this, he was actively trying to prevent it from happening. Yet, this faint future still happened, despite all Ruin's efforts.

[JohnnyKaizen he/him]

On 10/11/2024 at 4:39 PM, alder24 said:

The "nearly all possibilities" thing was about Szeth confusing Rayse's bones for Taravangian. He saw a few subtle possibilities when spotting the loophole - so yes, he had much harder time spotting those possibilities, so much harder that Rayse had missed them and it required a fresh mind to do that. RoW ch 114:

He might have spotted a checkmate, but he still has to arrange everything, which can be countered by the Coalition. But if everything goes right when the contest happens, Dalinar will have no choice which is a future worth the risk - even if that will be hard to do. Unlikely doesn't mean impossible, Shards can still arrange for this to happen - Cultivation did it with Taravangian after all.

Mistborn spoilers:

  Hide contents

Vin's Ascension was a faint possibility, so unlikely that even Leras was losing hope. Ruin knew this, he was actively trying to prevent it from happening. Yet, this faint future still happened, despite all Ruin's efforts.

Ok that tracks. He does know, but he's still got to work hard for it. I think the disconnect for me has been the certainty with which so many threads have talked about the loophole, as in it absolutely will happen..Dalinar will fail..and what will Roshar and the Cosmere be after that, case closed. When, as you've said, it's at most..a possibility (for a Shard).