Battle is coming at 3 fronts! what our we going to lose?!

[Aon Tia she/her]

So, we all know the loophole now and the risks involved and what T'Odium is planning. There is going to be war at multiple fronts:

Azir, Thaylenah and Shattered Plains. Coalition forces have formed a battle plans and forces have been assigned to the 3 battlefronts

and it really feels like the world is ending! 

But, I dont think that Coalition forces are going to be able to win all the 3 battlefronts in book 5! Makes me wonder, which battle we are going to win and which are we going to lose before the end of 8 days! 

if we lose Azir, we lose all the adjoining kingdoms, and coalition simply will not have enough land/territory to matter anymore on Roshar and it will be a big blow!

If we lose Thaylenah, we lose the entire sea navigation and it is a big lose. 

If we lose Shattered plains, which according to me, is most likely, well poor Alethkar, its people do not seem to be able to catch a break! Besides, resources vise, Shattered Plains hold a lot of importance for the sustenance of Urithiru. 

and not to count, whatever is going to go down in Shinovar! 

plus, Do you think Urithiru is going to be attacked? 

So, please share your views.  

[Catlito]

Looks like Nale and the Skybreakers could easily take Urithiru if its undefended but narratively it looks too much like a repeat of Rythm of War  .

For the rest I think the coalition is gonna lose 1 or 2 kingdoms. Sigzil and Jasnah not going anywhere so Azir fall with Adolin brave death seems the most logical 

[BinarySecond]

I think the battle in the shattered plains will lead us into the last legion 2 - abandonment boogaloo

[coolsnow7]

A question we haven’t been asking is: which of these matters more to Odium?

I’m not going to say I’m confident this is the case, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that only one of these (or some other objective entirely, like Urithiru) matters to Odium, and the other two are a bluff. (I hope it’s not Urithiru; too similar to RoW obviously.) If I were to guess, we might find that Dalinar has no standing to head the coalition without leading a kingdom. Alternatively, Odium might be angling to destroy Dalinar’s popular legitimacy, and one step towards that would be for the entire Alethi nation to be lost to Odium. Hence, the Shattered Plains may be where Odium actually tries to win, rather than distract.

[Ookla she/her]

4 hours ago, BinarySecond said:

I think the battle in the shattered plains will lead us into the last legion 2 - abandonment boogaloo

Do you watch Hermitcraft? This sounds like a play off something familiar... 

[alder24]

I'm quite sure the Shattered Plains will be lost. 1000 Fused with one Thunderclast is a lot of power. Against it Dalinar can only place significantly weaker troops with only a fraction of Radiants. Sigzil is in command and that worries me even more. We know from TSM that Sig made a big mistake while leading Windrunners and later he abandoned his Oaths. Now everything makes me feel this mistake will cost the coalition the Shattered Plains. 

[The Stick]

I think Thaylen City is extremely defensible only so long as the ships are allowed under no circumstances to land. The Thaylen City is not built for land warfare, if the singers land, they have already lost. Using this knowledge, the logical conclusion if for the Thaylen forces to find a way to destroy the ships before they manage to land. One way I have been thinking about is making Windrunners bombing squadrons. As Kmakl points out in RoW, conventional ships are easy prey for aerial attacks, as the Skybreakers also proved. Therego, I would hypothesize that if the Lightweavers were to make the Windrunners invisible, then the Windrunners could bomb the Thaylen ships. It is unclear if Roshar has conventual explosives, but I would personally suggest that they make void light anti-voidlight explosives and drop them into the fleets to sink them. Even if they are not able to do this, even lashing huge rocks downwards into the ships should be able to destroy them. 

[coolsnow7]

7 minutes ago, alder24 said:

I'm quite sure the Shattered Plains will be lost. 1000 Fused with one Thunderclast is a lot of power. Against it Dalinar can only place significantly weaker troops with only a fraction of Radiants. Sigzil is in command and that worries me even more. We know from TSM that Sig made a big mistake while leading Windrunners and later he abandoned his Oaths. Now everything makes me feel this mistake will cost the coalition the Shattered Plains. 

I’m pretty sure this is where the Listeners come to the Coalition‘s rescue, along with the Heavenly Ones. But we’ll see.

[+Oltux72 he/him]

2 hours ago, coolsnow7 said:

A question we haven’t been asking is: which of these matters more to Odium?

Azimir. Holding the Shattered plains is not very useful if you have to relinquish Alethkar and Herdaz. It is basically cut off from everywhere else. The Thaylens are traders. If the Singers hold Azimir, Jah Keved, Kharbranth and Alethkar, the Thaylens will have to trade with them for lack of an alternative.

[alder24]

1 hour ago, coolsnow7 said:

I’m pretty sure this is where the Listeners come to the Coalition‘s rescue, along with the Heavenly Ones. But we’ll see.

Rescue with what army? Heavenly Ones are on Odium's side, only a few of them joined Leshwi. There are just a few thousands or so Listeners there, mostly elderly and children. They have only one Willshaper of 3rd Ideal, any new one won't have enough time to learn their new powers so they are as good as regular Listeners. I do expect they will get involved, but I don't think they will turn the tide, even with Chasmfiends. 

[Master Silver]

2 hours ago, alder24 said:

Rescue with what army? Heavenly Ones are on Odium's side, only a few of them joined Leshwi. There are just a few thousands or so Listeners there, mostly elderly and children. They have only one Willshaper of 3rd Ideal, any new one won't have enough time to learn their new powers so they are as good as regular Listeners. I do expect they will get involved, but I don't think they will turn the tide, even with Chasmfiends. 

That is the real question. How many Chasmfiends does it take to combat a Thunderclast? Also, how many Chasmfiends were killed during the war between the Parshendi and Alethi and how many are left? 

 

It just hit me that Adolin would be the prime subject for Nightwatcher. His mom and uncle are bondsmiths. He is uniting people and it seems like one of the bondsmiths needs to be the frontline warrior. Stormfather is the general. Sibling the logistics, support, R&D, but where is the bondsmith that charges in and shatters armies? I also think that the bodyguard that used to be a squire is going to go with Adolin and be one of the few survivors. It only takes a few in Azir swearing ideas to completely change the landscape of that battle. Furthermore, Adolin, can conduct a fighting withdraw to the city gate. The battle hasn't started. So, he needs to hold for about 4 days and then they can retake the city in the final 2 days.   

[Confused]

I think all three battles are distractions. IMO, @Oltux72 had it right: Urithiru is the target. That is where the contest of champions will be held. No harm can come to either champion in advance. That doesn’t stop either side from preparing the battlefield.

Assume for the moment I’m correct that the champions are Dalinar and a much expanded, living Everstorm. Taravangian intends the Everstorm arrive over Urithiru at the appointed hour. (Will the Stormfather also be there then?) I believe the Everstorm will try to blanket Dalinar in its Investiture and block him from creating a perpendicularity and summon Stormlight. That may or may not work. But it’s a sensible tactic for Taravangian to try. I’m sure he also has a back-up plan.

I think a Skybreaker raid against Urithiru makes tactical sense to support the coming contest. Getting in will be easy. The Sibling can’t stop them, and Urithiru will be emptied of defenders. I believe their mission is to kill Navani and deprive the Sibling of its Bondsmith. (Does Singer law or Radiant law govern? Skybreakers make Radiant law. Is this "murder" during wartime?)

Killing Navani stops Towerlight creation. Towerlight could serve as Dalinar’s back-up Investiture. If Taravangian’s plan is to starve Dalinar of Investiture, he would make this move. Narratively, Navani’s death frees Dalinar to Ascend and spurs him to do so.

The three battles also are important, each for different reasons. Azir and its related states control most of western Roshar; Thaylenah controls the seas; and, I believe, the Shattered Plains hides a Dawnshard. Based on TSM, maybe that’s Hoid’s Dawnshard before Sigzil acquires it?

That Dawnshard has “an Intent that is diametrically opposed to violence and harm” [Coppermind on Hoid’s Dawnshard, citing TSM Chapter 21]. Taravangian hates to feel the cosmere’s misery and wants to make himself the One God to stop it. Can he use the Dawnshard to pacify native populations rather than conquer them? Render those populations incapable of imposing violence on others? Used by a Shard, could a Dawnshard do that?

Just some thoughts and questions you folks inspire. All the best, C.

[The Stick]

14 minutes ago, Confused said:

I think all three battles are distractions. IMO, @Oltux72 had it right: Urithiru is the target. That is where the contest of champions will be held. No harm can come to either champion in advance. That doesn’t stop either side from preparing the battlefield.

Assume for the moment I’m correct that the champions are Dalinar and a much expanded, living Everstorm. Taravangian intends the Everstorm arrive over Urithiru at the appointed hour. (Will the Stormfather also be there then?) I believe the Everstorm will try to blanket Dalinar in its Investiture and block him from creating a perpendicularity and summon Stormlight. That may or may not work. But it’s a sensible tactic for Taravangian to try. I’m sure he also has a back-up plan.

I think a Skybreaker raid against Urithiru makes tactical sense to support the coming contest. Getting in will be easy. The Sibling can’t stop them, and Urithiru will be emptied of defenders. I believe their mission is to kill Navani and deprive the Sibling of its Bondsmith. (Does Singer law or Radiant law govern? Skybreakers make Radiant law. Is this "murder" during wartime?)

Killing Navani stops Towerlight creation. Towerlight could serve as Dalinar’s back-up Investiture. If Taravangian’s plan is to starve Dalinar of Investiture, he would make this move. Narratively, Navani’s death frees Dalinar to Ascend and spurs him to do so.

The three battles also are important, each for different reasons. Azir and its related states control most of western Roshar; Thaylenah controls the seas; and, I believe, the Shattered Plains hides a Dawnshard. Based on TSM, maybe that’s Hoid’s Dawnshard before Sigzil acquires it?

That Dawnshard has “an Intent that is diametrically opposed to violence and harm” [Coppermind on Hoid’s Dawnshard, citing TSM Chapter 21]. Taravangian hates to feel the cosmere’s misery and wants to make himself the One God to stop it. Can he use the Dawnshard to pacify native populations rather than conquer them? Render those populations incapable of imposing violence on others? Used by a Shard, could a Dawnshard do that?

Just some thoughts and questions you folks inspire. All the best, C.

I think you are seriously underestimating Navani. It is irrelevant if the tower knocks out Skybreakers, while she is in the Tower, Navani is essentially impossible to kill, unless they give the Sibling anti-light. Plus, you are also discounting that the Sibling fundamentally is the Tower. Now they are at full strength, I would imagine that the Sibling could just control the pressure in the Tower to squash invading Skybreakers.

[Sedside she/her]

I think all of the battles will be lost. There are too many grim Death Rattles, predicting some big victories of the enemy, like these:

Spoiler

Victory! We stand atop the mount! We scatter them before us! Their homes become our dens, their lands are now our farms! And they shall burn, as we once did, in a place that is hollow and forlorn.

Light grows so distant. The storm never stops. I am broken, and all around me have died. I weep for the end of all things. He has won. Oh, he has beaten us.

The day was ours, but they took it. Stormfather! You cannot have it. The day is ours. They come, rasping, and the lights fail. Oh, Stormfather!

Not about victories, but also very scary:

Spoiler

They break the land itself! They want it, but in their rage they will destroy it. Like the jealous man burns his rich things rather than let them be taken by his enemies! They come!

And all the world was shattered! The rocks trembled with their steps, and the stones reached toward the heavens. We die! We die!

If all three countries are lost, then the significance of the contest of champions will be increased dramatically, because it will be the only way for the humankind to get any land to live in, so the climax will be even more climactic. We also know from epigraphs that the Shinovar mission turns out to be very important for the world. Of course there are a lot of possible reasons for that, and one of them could be that by recruiting Shinovar into Team Honor they secure for themselves a huge amount of fertile land, while the rest of the world is lost for them. It would also be some kind of symmetry, because humans will be exiled to where they initially lived on Roshar.

Regarding Urithiru, I don't think there will be an open assault on it. First of all, it has already happened before, two times, both times it failed, why do it third time hoping for another outcome, especially now when the Sibling is alive and bonded, and their Bondsmith doesn't even need to sleep? It's also repetitive from narrative standpoint. An attack on Urithiru third book in a row? I doubt it will happen.

Though I do like the idea that there can be a sneak attack on Navani. If Team Odium manages to kill her, it will influence Dalinar and performance in the contest, and if the predictions about Stormfather's death in WaT are right (and I think they are), then Dalinar will be without his powers at all. But I don't think Skybreakers are the ones who will be performing this attack. I think it's Lightweavers' job. After all, there must be a reason Mraize said he is fascinated by them.

[Shacharma]

I also think Venli and the listeners (and their chasmfiends) are going to turn the tide at the shattered plains, possibly changing it's status to being not human/coalition and not Odium. Remember that several years have passed since the listeners escaped Eshonai's purge - that's enough to bring a bunch of kids into ages where they can join the fight, and with Thude's force, especially if many of them become willshapers, they can make a huge difference.

I think the general outcome of the fights will be the opposite of the outcome of the contest of champions - if the fights lead to victory, victory will be snatched away by dalinar failing (as fits the death rattles), while if they fail I think Dalinars chances of success go way up.

I also predict we will see a skybreaker raid, which might kill Navani, that will be stopped by legal argument

[+Oltux72 he/him]

5 hours ago, Confused said:

I think a Skybreaker raid against Urithiru makes tactical sense to support the coming contest. Getting in will be easy. The Sibling can’t stop them, and Urithiru will be emptied of defenders. I believe their mission is to kill Navani and deprive the Sibling of its Bondsmith. (Does Singer law or Radiant law govern? Skybreakers make Radiant law. Is this "murder" during wartime?)

If you are taking Urithiru, you go all the way. You destroy it. Why else would you spend the resources? That also gives you the loophole. The champions are to meet on the top of Urithiru. No Urithiru, no contest.

[Alcatur]

Would taking Urithiru be that easy? Raboniel supressing abiity shuould be something that Navani could potentially recreate.

[Aon Tia she/her]

If Urithitu is attacked, I do wonder who will be left in Urithiru to defend? It does feel like a red herring where the sibling keeps promising that Urithiru will be safe, although it does feel like a repeat of ROW, but if the plan is to destroy it or kill the sibling using the anti-stormlight? may be! 

21 hours ago, Catlito said:

Looks like Nale and the Skybreakers could easily take Urithiru

Where are the Dustbringers? 

[BinarySecond]

5 minutes ago, Aon Tia said:

If Urithitu is attacked, I do wonder who will be left in Urithiru to defend? It does feel like a red herring where the sibling keeps promising that Urithiru will be safe, although it does feel like a repeat of ROW, but if the plan is to destroy it or kill the sibling using the anti-stormlight? may be! 

Where are the Dustbringers? 

One of them is in the meeting of the Monarchs; I think the bulk departed as they were Diagram aligned. Probably all quickly getting married to citizens of Khabranth.

32 minutes ago, Alcatur said:

Would taking Urithiru be that easy? Raboniel supressing abiity shuould be something that Navani could potentially recreate.

You'd think so - We're getting big hints that Navani's knowledge of fabrial mechanics is going to lead to some serious changes for The Sibling and The Tower.

[+Child of Hodor]

15 hours ago, coolsnow7 said:

I’m pretty sure this is where the Listeners come to the Coalition‘s rescue, along with the Heavenly Ones. But we’ll see.

They got that Chasmfiend on their side as well. Chasmfiend vs Thunderclast would be a lot of fun. 

52 minutes ago, Alcatur said:

Would taking Urithiru be that easy? Raboniel supressing abiity shuould be something that Navani could potentially recreate.

She could maybe make Anti-Stormlight, put it in a dagger and perma-kill Nale with it. Although I think it's more fitting if Szeth kills Nale with Nightblood.

[Master Silver]

Nale has an intimate knowledge of the Tower, but I think we are underestimating the Sibling and Navani. The Sibling knows the Rhythms and can simply isolate the Skybreaker strike force. Is it worth diverting the Skybreakers and losing Thaylin city when you could also lose the entire order. Finally, if the Skybreakers are still governed by their oaths, what claim would they have on Urithiru? It has always belonged to the Radiants. I don't think they have the legality to attack it. 

 

I think three chasmfiends could take a Thunderclast. Like wolves pulling down a moose. 

[BinarySecond]

16 hours ago, Master Silver said:

Nale has an intimate knowledge of the Tower, but I think we are underestimating the Sibling and Navani. The Sibling knows the Rhythms and can simply isolate the Skybreaker strike force. Is it worth diverting the Skybreakers and losing Thaylin city when you could also lose the entire order. Finally, if the Skybreakers are still governed by their oaths, what claim would they have on Urithiru? It has always belonged to the Radiants. I don't think they have the legality to attack it. 

 

I think three chasmfiends could take a Thunderclast. Like wolves pulling down a moose. 

I reckon 1 Chasmfiend could do it. If it's the size of the one in TWOK they kill on the hunt it would demolish a Thunderclast 1v1. I think the strength of the Thunderclast is how impervious it is to standard arms and it's size. But a Chasmfiend would just snap it's arms and legs off.

[alder24]

19 minutes ago, BinarySecond said:

I reckon 1 Chasmfiend could do it. If it's the size of the one in TWOK they kill on the hunt it would demolish a Thunderclast 1v1. I think the strength of the Thunderclast is how impervious it is to standard arms and it's size. But a Chasmfiend would just snap it's arms and legs off.

You mean a single Chasmfiend can beat a Thunderclast, the thing that can just punch a huge hole in a wall, tear up towers and throw boulders halfway across a city? A Thunderclast whose body is made out of literal stone? Yeah, no. A Chasmfiend stands no chance against a Thunderclast, a group of Chasmfiends would struggle, at best they can immobilize it, but their fleshy body won't tear up a stone Thunderclast into pieces. 

Edited October 10, 2024 by alder24

[BinarySecond]

31 minutes ago, alder24 said:

You mean a single Chasmfiend can beat a Thunderclast, the thing that can just punch a huge hole in a wall, tear up towers and throw boulders halfway across a city? A Thunderclast whose body is made out of literal stone? Yeah, no. A Chasmfiend stands no chance against a Thunderclast, a group of Chasmfiends would struggle, at best they can immobilize it, but their fleshy body won't tear up a stone Thunderclast into pieces. 

https://coppermind.net/wiki/Chasmfiend#/media/File:Chasmfiend.jpeg

 

I just don't see a Thunderclast beating something it's only as tall as. In a battle of apendages the thunderclast is outmatched; it's weight and momentum are it's advantages.

The stone that makes up a TC is surely not that much stronger than regular stone; yes it's probably a bit invested but that's not going to be too much considering it's vulnerable to a shardblade.

[+Child of Hodor]

1 hour ago, alder24 said:

You mean a single Chasmfiend can beat a Thunderclast, the thing that can just punch a huge hole in a wall, tear up towers and throw boulders halfway across a city? A Thunderclast whose body is made out of literal stone? Yeah, no. A Chasmfiend stands no chance against a Thunderclast, a group of Chasmfiends would struggle, at best they can immobilize it, but their fleshy body won't tear up a stone Thunderclast into pieces. 

Chasmfiends endure countless highstorms out on the shattered plains. They probably get hit by boulders launched by the wind routinely. They can take a hit. I don't know that they can solo a Thunderclast, but they have more bulk and limbs. They'd be tough to bring down. 

It would be a family feud of sorts. Both Thunderclasts and Chasmfiends are gigantic with arrowhead-shaped faces. Thunderclast's non-corporeal forms look like big, mangled clumps of red. I theorize they are Singer and Chasmfiend souls merged somehow.