The War and Running out the Clock

[Master Silver]

So there is a three pronged attack that is going to take place. The enemy (Odium) may have meant for these to be surprise attacks, but the cat is out of the bag. Especially, if the plan was to sack Azir first and then use the reinforcements to go to Thaylen city and the shattered plans to quickly overwhelm the defenders, this is no longer going to occur. The siege of Kholinar took time. The battle of Thaylen fields also took time (although less time). If we are on day 2 and Odium's forces are still moving. It will likely be at least another two days before they can begin their attack. After arriving they will have to array their forces set up camp, etc. So, they will have less than a week to take some of the largest cities in the world. And they are all fortress cities that will have Radiants. Sending Stonewards, Elsecallers, and Edgedancers to each location further fortifies the cities. Even if you can't win any of the battles, you just have to hold for 5 days. I am just thinking of how long the sieges in 15th and 16th centuries sometimes took. 

Finally, there are also two wild card armies. Ishar's and the Listeners who seem to have dozens of Chasimfiends. 

 

How would you all defend against these attacks?

 

[alder24]

56 minutes ago, Master Silver said:

So there is a three pronged attack that is going to take place. The enemy (Odium) may have meant for these to be surprise attacks, but the cat is out of the bag. Especially, if the plan was to sack Azir first and then use the reinforcements to go to Thaylen city and the shattered plans to quickly overwhelm the defenders, this is no longer going to occur. The siege of Kholinar took time. The battle of Thaylen fields also took time (although less time). If we are on day 2 and Odium's forces are still moving. It will likely be at least another two days before they can begin their attack. After arriving they will have to array their forces set up camp, etc. So, they will have less than a week to take some of the largest cities in the world. And they are all fortress cities that will have Radiants. Sending Stonewards, Elsecallers, and Edgedancers to each location further fortifies the cities. Even if you can't win any of the battles, you just have to hold for 5 days. I am just thinking of how long the sieges in 15th and 16th centuries sometimes took. 

Finally, there are also two wild card armies. Ishar's and the Listeners who seem to have dozens of Chasimfiends. 

 

How would you all defend against these attacks?

Yeah, that's a really tough nut for Dalinar to crack. Odium created an excellent dilemma for the coalition and I don't see any good option for them to choose. I think it will be really hard for them to successfully defend on all three fronts, especially considering that one invasion force is made entirely out of 1000 Fused and 1 Thunderclast. Dalinar's main army is still in Emul, they might be able to get back on time to aid the defense of Azir, but this might be too tight. It's way more problematic to defend other fronts. No army on the Shattered Plain can defend against that many Fused and Dalinar don't even have that many Radiants to match their numbers and there are even more Fused in the other two armies. Dalinar has to spread his Radiants across 3 different fronts, which would put them in huge disadvantage. It’s possible  Dalinar might be forced to abandon one position, or at the very least he might run out of man to send. 

I think the easiest way to defend the Shattered Plains is to use the Listeners' tactic - evacuate to the Narak, fortify it, break bridges and fight for every plateau. Even 1000 Fused will struggle to get past such a defense in a few days, maybe it will be enough to prevent them from reaching the Oathgate if there are enough troops there. But this means abandoning the 10 camps around the plains - there is still a lot of free space in the Tower, but that’s a huge existential threat to the Alethi nation.

The Azish gate will be less problematic, thankfully the gate's platform was turned into a maze which would be much easier to defend. It will be a massive choke point. They just need to hold for long enough for the main coalition force to arrive from the won offensive in Emul. However we don't know how many troops are already present in the city, or in Urithiru. I don't think there are enough of them to mount a strong defense. It will be a desperate struggle for sure, but a relief army is already marching towards Azimir.

Thaylen City will probably be the hardest to defend. Their navy was defeated, but they need it again. They need to send a force of Windrunners escorting another navy to meet their enemy at the sea, far away from the island as that’s the only way to stop the siege from starting and thus relieve all those troops from this position and send them to the other two. If that's impossible, then the city will be under siege - again. This time it might be much harder to defend against it, considering that Dalinar's forces are spread out thin. But on the other hand Dalinar already defended the city with the total of 7 Radiants plus Adolin alone, so maybe it won't be that hard? 

Ishar is a wild card, but I don't think he can do anything about any army - his army is too far away and he himself is unlikely to join Dalinar. Listeners can and it's possible they might join to fight for their freedom, because if Alethi fall on the Shattered Plains, I highly doubt Odium will leave them alone. Who knows, maybe Leshwi will manage to convince more Fused to join them? 

But there is another wild cart you haven't mentioned - Honorspren naval power. Right now it's sadly anchored and collecting dust, but Notum wants to reactivate the fleet and fight for Shadesmar. It may be possible, if Odium forces will be slowed down while passing through the Oathgate, for Notum to arrive just on time to destroy the part of Odium's army that wasn't able to pass through, effectively winning this battle.

Navani needs to start working on creating anti-Odium tone metal plates and anti-Voidlight - good thing she doesn’t need to sleep now. They have a few Raysium daggers, at least one, so they can't rely on them too much, but RoW showed us that just playing anti-Odium tone can paralyze Fused. That's a weapon to be used. But Odium can do the same and he has much more Raysium to spare and give to his troops. Radiants and Spren will die. However it's hard to say if any of this army even has a capability of creating anti-Stormlight. The Shadesmar army was sent before this discovery was even made so they might not have the equipment needed for this and would have to rely on air deliveries. The Fused and naval army were sent already so it's also hard to say if they have anti-Stormlight or means to create it. I doubt the Fused army has the equipment with them (because they rely on speed, they probably won't be resting too much to arrive on time), they probably have a limited amount of anti-Stormlight. So this all might mean that while all armies might have Raysium, they might also have a very limited amount of anti-light, or none at all. We shall see.

This will be hard. And even worse, Dalinar CAN'T be at all three places at once and Navani can't provide Towerlight for Radiants. This means all Radiants will be running out of fuel and they will struggle. Until now, they could always count on Dalinar and his perpendicularity, but now they are on their own. It's not even sure if Dalinar even goes to one of those places personally as he has to prepare himself for the Contest of Champions and protect himself from being targeted - just in case. Radiants might be running on fumes, while Fused and Regals will be full of Voidlight. 

[CognitiveShadow he/him]

8 minutes ago, alder24 said:

Yeah, that's a really tough nut for Dalinar to crack. Odium created an excellent dilemma for the coalition and I don't see any good option for them to choose. I think it will be really hard for them to successfully defend on all three fronts, especially considering that one invasion force is made entirely out of 1000 Fused and 1 Thunderclast. Dalinar's main army is still in Emul, they might be able to get back on time to aid the defense of Azir, but this might be too tight. It's way more problematic to defend other fronts. No army on the Shattered Plain can defend against that many Fused and Dalinar don't even have that many Radiants to match their numbers and there are even more Fused in the other two armies. Dalinar has to spread his Radiants across 3 different fronts, which would put them in huge disadvantage. It’s possible  Dalinar might be forced to abandon one position, or at the very least he might run out of man to send. 

I think the easiest way to defend the Shattered Plains is to use the Listeners' tactic - evacuate to the Narak, fortify it, break bridges and fight for every plateau. Even 1000 Fused will struggle to get past such a defense in a few days, maybe it will be enough to prevent them from reaching the Oathgate if there are enough troops there. But this means abandoning the 10 camps around the plains - there is still a lot of free space in the Tower, but that’s a huge existential threat to the Alethi nation.

The Azish gate will be less problematic, thankfully the gate's platform was turned into a maze which would be much easier to defend. It will be a massive choke point. They just need to hold for long enough for the main coalition force to arrive from the won offensive in Emul. However we don't know how many troops are already present in the city, or in Urithiru. I don't think there are enough of them to mount a strong defense. It will be a desperate struggle for sure, but a relief army is already marching towards Azimir.

Thaylen City will probably be the hardest to defend. Their navy was defeated, but they need it again. They need to send a force of Windrunners escorting another navy to meet their enemy at the sea, far away from the island as that’s the only way to stop the siege from starting and thus relieve all those troops from this position and send them to the other two. If that's impossible, then the city will be under siege - again. This time it might be much harder to defend against it, considering that Dalinar's forces are spread out thin. But on the other hand Dalinar already defended the city with the total of 7 Radiants plus Adolin alone, so maybe it won't be that hard? 

Ishar is a wild card, but I don't think he can do anything about any army - his army is too far away and he himself is unlikely to join Dalinar. Listeners can and it's possible they might join to fight for their freedom, because if Alethi fall on the Shattered Plains, I highly doubt Odium will leave them alone. Who knows, maybe Leshwi will manage to convince more Fused to join them? 

But there is another wild cart you haven't mentioned - Honorspren naval power. Right now it's sadly anchored and collecting dust, but Notum wants to reactivate the fleet and fight for Shadesmar. It may be possible, if Odium forces will be slowed down while passing through the Oathgate, for Notum to arrive just on time to destroy the part of Odium's army that wasn't able to pass through, effectively winning this battle.

Navani needs to start working on creating anti-Odium tone metal plates and anti-Voidlight - good thing she doesn’t need to sleep now. They have a few Raysium daggers, at least one, so they can't rely on them too much, but RoW showed us that just playing anti-Odium tone can paralyze Fused. That's a weapon to be used. But Odium can do the same and he has much more Raysium to spare and give to his troops. Radiants and Spren will die. However it's hard to say if any of this army even has a capability of creating anti-Stormlight. The Shadesmar army was sent before this discovery was even made so they might not have the equipment needed for this and would have to rely on air deliveries. The Fused and naval army were sent already so it's also hard to say if they have anti-Stormlight or means to create it. I doubt the Fused army has the equipment with them (because they rely on speed, they probably won't be resting too much to arrive on time), they probably have a limited amount of anti-Stormlight. So this all might mean that while all armies might have Raysium, they might also have a very limited amount of anti-light, or none at all. We shall see.

This will be hard. And even worse, Dalinar CAN'T be at all three places at once and Navani can't provide Towerlight for Radiants. This means all Radiants will be running out of fuel and they will struggle. Until now, they could always count on Dalinar and his perpendicularity, but now they are on their own. It's not even sure if Dalinar even goes to one of those places personally as he has to prepare himself for the Contest of Champions and protect himself from being targeted - just in case. Radiants might be running on fumes, while Fused and Regals will be full of Voidlight. 

Given all of this, did Odium even need to make a deal? Couldn't Rayse have just proceeded with this plan and avoided a contest of champions? tOdium has dalinar and team on their heels, and their only hope is to try and survive long enough for the contest of champions to happen. Seems to me like Odium could have just kept to the plan and hit them with these attacks even after losing the tower?

[alder24]

14 minutes ago, CognitiveShadow said:

Given all of this, did Odium even need to make a deal? Couldn't Rayse have just proceeded with this plan and avoided a contest of champions? tOdium has dalinar and team on their heels, and their only hope is to try and survive long enough for the contest of champions to happen. Seems to me like Odium could have just kept to the plan and hit them with these attacks even after losing the tower?

Yes, Rayse needed to do this. He feared he might lose, he feared Dalinar learned something from Ishar, he was afraid of him. He needed to end this before Dalinar learned more, he needed to win decisively or end the war for good. And the more he waits, the more Radiants will be made. Waiting doesn't serve him, in the end there will be enough Radiants to launch a successful counter offensive and retake all three places if they were to fall. The status quo of the last 7000 years would be upheld, Desolations would be raging on forever, endless war, endless casualties, endless prison - Rayse needed to break the cycle. Even his Shard, the power he held, was in conflict with him over this. RoW ch 112:

Quote

“I would prefer,” Odium said, “to make an agreement.”
Why so eager? Dalinar thought. It’s the power, isn’t it? It’s ripping you apart for delaying. It wants out.

Without the deadline, Dalinar would be able to relax, plan a layered defense and even withdraw from some of those attacked positions, reorganize and counterattack, retaking them. Capturing one city, deeply surrounded by the enemy territory is not a good strategy if you need to defend it in the long run. Sure, Oathgates are a huge help, but even they wouldn't be enough. Dalinar would have enough manpower to mobilize, enough territory to retreat towards and enough time to fight for those cities.

[Master Silver]

28 minutes ago, CognitiveShadow said:

Given all of this, did Odium even need to make a deal? Couldn't Rayse have just proceeded with this plan and avoided a contest of champions? tOdium has dalinar and team on their heels, and their only hope is to try and survive long enough for the contest of champions to happen. Seems to me like Odium could have just kept to the plan and hit them with these attacks even after losing the tower?

So I think perhaps that was Rayse plan. Dalinar mentions that Odium likely waited too long, and that is why the power was tearing him apart. This is why he was forced to set terms even though it wasn't what he wanted. But of course he knew what he was planning, so perhaps the contest is a way to keep both bondsmiths off the field of battle. 

[The Stick]

From a Renaissance siege perspective, I think think there is a lot they can do. Assuming the armies drop off right outside the cities, then make camp to start the siege, I see the coalition able to actually do quite a lot. I think one problem for the coalition is to make enough equipment to make vast amounts of anti-voidlight. However, I think a top priority if to start making some truly massive instruments to blast out anti-voidlight Rhythm. Another thing I don't think the Coalition had tried yet is to have large assemblies of bells and people clamoring to the Rhythm of Panic, which might help to demoralize regular attackers, after all, every bit helps. Next, their top priority is fundamentally just to hold out till the deadline. I would say then you have to do Hannibal-esque tactics, doing things like burning supplies and poisoning water supplies. As for Radiant warfare, below is what each Order could do.

Windrunners: Their primary duty is to fight Heavenly Ones and Skybreakers. However, I do think reverse lashing waves of stones into the enemy camp could be decent.

Dustbringers: There are not a whole lot of them, but I would use them as their true use as sappers to wreck enemy camps.

Edgedancers: Besides using abrasion to slide through for sabotage, they should basically just heal.

Truthwatchers: They can heal, but I would say their primary duty should be to weaponize light. I would have ginormous wattages going into an enemy camp, because an enemy who has not slept is far easier to fight.

Lightweavers: I would just have them cause a ton of panicking illusions of fires and disasters assaulting the camp.

Elsecallers: Jasnah might be our only canon example. However, I would say Elsecallers as a rule should try to Soulcast things. My go to would be to Soulcast the air above the camps into pure oxygen, theb ignite it. Besides that, they could probably erect massive walls to the cities.

Willshapers: Irrelevant

Stonwards: They would be big in building defenses and ditches. Otherwise, I would set a team of them to try to melt and resolidify the ground around the thunder last to disable it.

Bondsmith: They could do a lot.

 

 

[Ashbringer he/him]

On 9/25/2024 at 12:38 PM, CognitiveShadow said:

Given all of this, did Odium even need to make a deal? Couldn't Rayse have just proceeded with this plan and avoided a contest of champions? tOdium has dalinar and team on their heels, and their only hope is to try and survive long enough for the contest of champions to happen. Seems to me like Odium could have just kept to the plan and hit them with these attacks even after losing the tower?

In addition to Alder's points, Odium also agreed to hold a contest of champions with Dalinar back in Oathbringer - he just thought that he'd win by pulling Dalinar over as his champion. When Dalinar refused, Odium was forced to regroup - but he'd already agreed to some form of contest. If he didn't hold one then he'd be breaking his word and Cultivation would probably kill him.

48 minutes ago, The Stick said:

Willshapers: Irrelevant

We don't have a lot of Willshapers at the moment, but that will likely change as more lightspren meet the listeners. I wouldn't write them off so hastily. For one thing, they can do a good deal of the fortifications that Stonewards can do. For another, they're probably the best anti-infiltration the Radiants have, being able to spot incoming Masked Ones or other cognitive spren and to duel burrowing Deepest Ones.

[The Stick]

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

 

We don't have a lot of Willshapers at the moment, but that will likely change as more lightspren meet the listeners. I wouldn't write them off so hastily. For one thing, they can do a good deal of the fortifications that Stonewards can do. For another, they're probably the best anti-infiltration the Radiants have, being able to spot incoming Masked Ones or other cognitive spren and to duel burrowing Deepest Ones.

I mean, you are definitely right, but it is all irrelevant regardless. They have ten days, so I find it unlikely to have a big emergence in Willshaping yet. I think that's back half material.

[Ashbringer he/him]

20 minutes ago, The Stick said:

I mean, you are definitely right, but it is all irrelevant regardless. They have ten days, so I find it unlikely to have a big emergence in Willshaping yet. I think that's back half material.

As of 1 day before the end of RoW, we had a single First Oath Willshaper. Now we’ve got at least two, one with Second Oath. But Venli could use both Surges with only her First. (We also had 1 total Fourth Oath Radiant, and now we have four. Things are moving pretty quick.)

That and the Lightspren seem eager to help, they just don’t like humans - but there’s a huge group of listeners in the Shattered Plains. I think it’s highly likely they’d be impactful enough to help.

[Njvodin]

On 9/26/2024 at 3:28 AM, alder24 said:

Thaylen City will probably be the hardest to defend. Their navy was defeated, but they need it again. They need to send a force of Windrunners escorting another navy to meet their enemy at the sea, far away from the island as that’s the only way to stop the siege from starting and thus relieve all those troops from this position and send them to the other two. If that's impossible, then the city will be under siege - again. This time it might be much harder to defend against it, considering that Dalinar's forces are spread out thin. But on the other hand Dalinar already defended the city with the total of 7 Radiants plus Adolin alone, so maybe it won't be that hard? 

I think this could be solved with Fourth Bridge, the flying ship, as Navani and Kmakl were remarking over how airborne power can vastly overpower a naval army, and I feel like this could be potentially hinting that the ship will be used to defend Thaylen City from the Singer navy.

The Windrunners you mentioned could be used to help defend the Fourth Bridge, and also the navy. If they could manage to get a second airship flying, then that could be a potential turn-around for the battle.

Something to think about :)

[Alcatur]

8 hours ago, Njvodin said:

I think this could be solved with Fourth Bridge, the flying ship, as Navani and Kmakl were remarking over how airborne power can vastly overpower a naval army, and I feel like this could be potentially hinting that the ship will be used to defend Thaylen City from the Singer navy.

The Windrunners you mentioned could be used to help defend the Fourth Bridge, and also the navy. If they could manage to get a second airship flying, then that could be a potential turn-around for the battle.

Something to think about

Navy isn't the problem (not sure if it even is the singer navy, more Jah Kaved,). Skybreakers are. If it was just the navy, then holding Thaylen against it would be doable just by delaying them on sea. 

 

14 hours ago, The Stick said:

From a Renaissance siege perspective, I think think there is a lot they can do. Assuming the armies drop off right outside the cities, then make camp to start the siege, I see the coalition able to actually do quite a lot. I think one problem for the coalition is to make enough equipment to make vast amounts of anti-voidlight. However, I think a top priority if to start making some truly massive instruments to blast out anti-voidlight Rhythm. Another thing I don't think the Coalition had tried yet is to have large assemblies of bells and people clamoring to the Rhythm of Panic, which might help to demoralize regular attackers, after all, every bit helps. Next, their top priority is fundamentally just to hold out till the deadline. I would say then you have to do Hannibal-esque tactics, doing things like burning supplies and poisoning water supplies. As for Radiant warfare, below is what each Order could do.

 

In all three cases enemy camps, supplies and wells are largely or completely irrelevant:

-for Thaylen city the most dangerous force are Skybreakers. They could seize a portion of the port and just allow enemy forces to unload, no siege required. Also the enemy has supplies from navy, limited ability to hit it. Fighting off the Skybreakers is the necessary first step, but enemy likely has Dustbringers who can easily take city defences down without protracted siege. Preventing them from landing is probably the best tactics. 

-in Azimir, enemy has staging ground in Shadesmar, likely outside of coalition easy reach (any attacks have to be made through the gate, a nasty bottleneck) Also supplies on navy in Shadesmar, no wells. If there is a camp - it will be in Shadesmar. As the surprise attack failed, this force could just put the pressure on Azimir, locking the coalition forces there and preventing them from moving to other fronts. 

-Narak force is hard hitting small unit. Fused likely do not eat or drink. In attack they will likely use their own innate abilities rather than any classical siege tactics. 

Edited September 30, 2024 by Alcatur

[coolsnow7]

On 9/25/2024 at 1:54 PM, Master Silver said:

So there is a three pronged attack that is going to take place. The enemy (Odium) may have meant for these to be surprise attacks, but the cat is out of the bag. Especially, if the plan was to sack Azir first and then use the reinforcements to go to Thaylen city and the shattered plans to quickly overwhelm the defenders, this is no longer going to occur. The siege of Kholinar took time. The battle of Thaylen fields also took time (although less time). If we are on day 2 and Odium's forces are still moving. It will likely be at least another two days before they can begin their attack. After arriving they will have to array their forces set up camp, etc. So, they will have less than a week to take some of the largest cities in the world. And they are all fortress cities that will have Radiants. Sending Stonewards, Elsecallers, and Edgedancers to each location further fortifies the cities. Even if you can't win any of the battles, you just have to hold for 5 days. I am just thinking of how long the sieges in 15th and 16th centuries sometimes took. 

Finally, there are also two wild card armies. Ishar's and the Listeners who seem to have dozens of Chasimfiends. 

 

How would you all defend against these attacks?

 

The key is going to be the bottlenecks at each point of access: the Oathgate at Azimir, the ocean at Thaylen City, and whatever the Fused use to cross the canyons of the Shattered Plains.

The simplest should be Azimir: this gigantic army is throttled by the rate at which it can cross from Shadesmar. It should be relatively simple to turn that point into a killing field. Odium will need another trick up his sleeve to make this assault work. I would add Stonewards here to continuously shape the Oathgate area into a set of obstacles for the invaders.

Thaylen City’s assault will consist of attacking ships, disembarking soldiers, with 200 Skybreakers supporting them. If I have access to the Listener Chasmfiends (though, I don’t think I do) this is where I would use them: they would represent a serious obstacle to disembarking troops, and would be impervious to whatever warships could fire at them. The concern would be the Skybreakers - but the Chasmfiends could be supported by the Windrunners to prevent them from cutting down the Chasmfiends from the air with Blades. Combine these armies with Warform Listeners and I think this is a viable defense for a while.

But I don’t think I’m getting the Listeners - I think they’re staying at the Shattered Plains realistically. Here I would try to use Elsecallers doing that Jasnah “rain of fire” trick, or similar ones, from RoW. The Thaylen coast is too broad to concentrate on a specific spot with foot soldiers or archers; you’d want the equivalent of artillery hammering into any troops that get off their boats. You’d also want to be able to deny air superiority to the Skybreakers. I would send Dalinar with a team of Elsecallers to continuously rain fire and death on the coast for 10 days, with conventional troops fortifying Thaylen City to prevent any breakthroughs from mattering.

IMO the hardest is the Shattered Plains. Here Edgedancers would do best, since they could cover plateaus efficiently, sprinting from one bridging mechanism to another. But I still don’t see how they’d deal with a thousand Fused. My guess, though, is that the Listeners + Chasmfiends will be lending support here, and some number of Listeners will be Willshapers and (enlightened) Truthwatchers. I would support them with Windrunners to deny the Heavenly Ones air superiority and to try to pick off chasm-crossing attempts from the sky. I would also concentrate conventional troops here since “Shardbearers don’t hold ground” and the Fused are, functionally, Shardbearers on steroids. But ultimately I still don’t know how I defend what amounts to a wide open area with 360 access from a thousand Fused. This would be a good time for some Navani fabrial technology to turn the tables or something. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

I think we've only got the one Elsecaller. Jasnah's powerful, but she's also only one human. And I doubt she'll have Dalinar, as he's focusing on actually winning the Contest. The Lightweavers could help, but they're generally weaker at Soulcasting and seem to be kept busy with Mraize.

Oathgates can also transfer a lot of people at once, if the greater area is used. Plus Deepest Ones or Stormform can wreck havoc on tightly packed defenses.

One possible step above chasmfiends - greatshells. Being able to attack the escorted ships from below would be of great help, especially if the Sleepless could be convinced to aid.

[The Stick]

Another potential option is trying to teach Rysn and Invested art like Soulcasting, or giving her a bond. The Sleepless certainly would not agree, and it would be extraordinarily dangerous, but she would be the most powerful Soulcaster in the Cosmere, and rain fire down on the fleet.

[Wanguu He/Him]

17 hours ago, The Stick said:

Another potential option is trying to teach Rysn and Invested art like Soulcasting, or giving her a bond. The Sleepless certainly would not agree, and it would be extraordinarily dangerous, but she would be the most powerful Soulcaster in the Cosmere, and rain fire down on the fleet.

Good point, I have been wondering what capacity Rysn will have in this book. I don't know if her agreement at the end of Dawnshard pervents Rysn from using it, but considerin the command, it would absolutley be a great tool. I don't think we're going to see much of it though.

[bmcclure7]

On 9/25/2024 at 2:28 PM, alder24 said:

Yeah, that's a really tough nut for Dalinar to crack. Odium created an excellent dilemma for the coalition and I don't see any good option for them to choose. I think it will be really hard for them to successfully defend on all three fronts, especially considering that one invasion force is made entirely out of 1000 Fused and 1 Thunderclast. Dalinar's main army is still in Emul, they might be able to get back on time to aid the defense of Azir, but this might be too tight. It's way more problematic to defend other fronts. No army on the Shattered Plain can defend against that many Fused and Dalinar don't even have that many Radiants to match their numbers and there are even more Fused in the other two armies. Dalinar has to spread his Radiants across 3 different fronts, which would put them in huge disadvantage. It’s possible  Dalinar might be forced to abandon one position, or at the very least he might run out of man to send. 

I think the easiest way to defend the Shattered Plains is to use the Listeners' tactic - evacuate to the Narak, fortify it, break bridges and fight for every plateau. Even 1000 Fused will struggle to get past such a defense in a few days, maybe it will be enough to prevent them from reaching the Oathgate if there are enough troops there. But this means abandoning the 10 camps around the plains - there is still a lot of free space in the Tower, but that’s a huge existential threat to the Alethi nation.

The Azish gate will be less problematic, thankfully the gate's platform was turned into a maze which would be much easier to defend. It will be a massive choke point. They just need to hold for long enough for the main coalition force to arrive from the won offensive in Emul. However we don't know how many troops are already present in the city, or in Urithiru. I don't think there are enough of them to mount a strong defense. It will be a desperate struggle for sure, but a relief army is already marching towards Azimir.

Thaylen City will probably be the hardest to defend. Their navy was defeated, but they need it again. They need to send a force of Windrunners escorting another navy to meet their enemy at the sea, far away from the island as that’s the only way to stop the siege from starting and thus relieve all those troops from this position and send them to the other two. If that's impossible, then the city will be under siege - again. This time it might be much harder to defend against it, considering that Dalinar's forces are spread out thin. But on the other hand Dalinar already defended the city with the total of 7 Radiants plus Adolin alone, so maybe it won't be that hard? 

Ishar is a wild card, but I don't think he can do anything about any army - his army is too far away and he himself is unlikely to join Dalinar. Listeners can and it's possible they might join to fight for their freedom, because if Alethi fall on the Shattered Plains, I highly doubt Odium will leave them alone. Who knows, maybe Leshwi will manage to convince more Fused to join them? 

But there is another wild cart you haven't mentioned - Honorspren naval power. Right now it's sadly anchored and collecting dust, but Notum wants to reactivate the fleet and fight for Shadesmar. It may be possible, if Odium forces will be slowed down while passing through the Oathgate, for Notum to arrive just on time to destroy the part of Odium's army that wasn't able to pass through, effectively winning this battle.

Navani needs to start working on creating anti-Odium tone metal plates and anti-Voidlight - good thing she doesn’t need to sleep now. They have a few Raysium daggers, at least one, so they can't rely on them too much, but RoW showed us that just playing anti-Odium tone can paralyze Fused. That's a weapon to be used. But Odium can do the same and he has much more Raysium to spare and give to his troops. Radiants and Spren will die. However it's hard to say if any of this army even has a capability of creating anti-Stormlight. The Shadesmar army was sent before this discovery was even made so they might not have the equipment needed for this and would have to rely on air deliveries. The Fused and naval army were sent already so it's also hard to say if they have anti-Stormlight or means to create it. I doubt the Fused army has the equipment with them (because they rely on speed, they probably won't be resting too much to arrive on time), they probably have a limited amount of anti-Stormlight. So this all might mean that while all armies might have Raysium, they might also have a very limited amount of anti-light, or none at all. We shall see.

This will be hard. And even worse, Dalinar CAN'T be at all three places at once and Navani can't provide Towerlight for Radiants. This means all Radiants will be running out of fuel and they will struggle. Until now, they could always count on Dalinar and his perpendicularity, but now they are on their own. It's not even sure if Dalinar even goes to one of those places personally as he has to prepare himself for the Contest of Champions and protect himself from being targeted - just in case. Radiants might be running on fumes, while Fused and Regals will be full of Voidlight. 

It’s possible that Thaylin could be saved if the Nale turns against odium. Sky breakers follow him after all. If someone such as kal manages to turn Nale highly likely the sky Breakers would switch sides.

[Master Silver]

On 10/1/2024 at 10:21 AM, bmcclure7 said:

It’s possible that Thaylin could be saved if the Nale turns against odium. Sky breakers follow him after all. If someone such as kal manages to turn Nale highly likely the sky Breakers would switch sides.

My understanding is that many Skybreakers are on the third ideal, and have decided to follow Nale. So, if Nale is healed he may turn on Odium, since his oath as a herald might compel him to. Also, his oath as a Skybreaker allows him some flexibility. Even if some Skybreakers of the fourth ideal don't which sides, this would give Thaylin city a fighting chance. 

I really like the idea of applying what was learned in RoW to the fight on the shattered plans. Navani's fabril technology helped in first battle of Narak. If she is able to expand the Siblings protection to Narak or the camps temporarily, she can put all the fused to sleep. Also, shard bows, with arrows filled with anti-voidlight might do the trick. Are shard blades made of the Honor god metal? If you can disrupt their powers you have a chance. 

There are less than 500 Radiants and Roughly 80 shard blades (not sure if that is counting plate). So Dalinar is out gunned in terms of investiture. Also, we don't know if Dalinar is including squires as Radiants, I'd say not just because there are so many Windrunner squires. Being the defender gives Dalinar an advantage, but holding for 5 plus days is a tall order. 

 

With Azimir the easiest thing to do is lock the oath gate. I know that works in the physical realm. Does it work in the Cognative realm too or is it up to the oath gate spren? 

 

Finally, I think this sort of assault sorta shows us what the last battle in the prelude to TWOKs looked like. You divide up the heralds and the various KRs and send Taln to the place you think you would lose. After those pitched battles, most of the Fused (who were the generals) have been placed back on Braize so the desolation ends.