Mid-Range Game 3: When Chalklings Attack

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Yeah, I've been on and checking, but I did mention in my sign-up, I do have way less time to be constantly active. annnnnd I am about to be late-fall camping for a day or two, over the weekend, so I will be way-afk. Hopefully my inactivity doesn't get me killed while I am gone, but if so, I would completely understand.

One quick thing, Joe, I don't think  I ever actually agreed to that there list of who is doing what. Nor do I think everybody else did. That was why I proposed my plan, so the Forgotten can't exactly know who is defended or not. Or at least that's how I'm going to be playing it, honestly.

Also, now that we know that we've had enough people doing the LoW alternating, some (as in only a couple at a time, somehow), people can start hunting for Forgotten with the Role-block Line Action (can't remember the name at the moment). Now that the Forgotten are still down 1, and we still have a decent advantage over 2 or 3 of them, the risk Chalkling kills is less severe if the role-blocks mishit. But on the other hand, when somebody does prevent a kill, the person can even immediately come forward with the results, because they'll be able to protect themselves with the Line of Forbiddance the cycle they come forward.
 

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Thanks for dropping in, Kas. Removing my vote, despite wishing for a bit of a better contribution, because it won't really go anywhere since you probably won't be replying again this Cycle. Hope you feel better soon.

 

Also, now that we know that we've had enough people doing the LoW alternating, some (as in only a couple at a time, somehow), people can start hunting for Forgotten with the Role-block Line Action (can't remember the name at the moment). Now that the Forgotten are still down 1, and we still have a decent advantage over 2 or 3 of them, the risk Chalkling kills is less severe if the role-blocks mishit. But on the other hand, when somebody does prevent a kill, the person can even immediately come forward with the results, because they'll be able to protect themselves with the Line of Forbiddance the cycle they come forward.

 

That's not entirely true though, is it? Because the Forgotten would just need to Vigor and Kill that Cycle to take them out (assuming that there is a point to killing them at all, other than them being confirmed Rithmatists). While the fact that someone reveals that they have prevented a kill is not putting them into danger, the question then becomes 'what happens if multiple people LoV?'. The more people who switch, the less defend us, and the more likely we are to have multiple people claim to have hit someone with a LoV. Even if we do stop a Forgotten this way, we could have three or four targets to lynch. It narrows it down quite a bit, certainly, but it's not as immediately useful as it at first appears.

 

For now, I'm going to ask Rulit and Joel why they voted for Jain last Cycle. As I said before, Jain doesn't seem like he should have provoked a potential lynch there. One vote yes, but two?

• Rulit also voted for Jain because he hadn't posted, then shortly after when Jain did post, Rulit didn't remove it. In fact, Jain posted twice, and considering the time when Rulit voted for Dui, there should have been more than enough time for him to retract that vote. So I'd like to know why that was not removed.
• Joel however I am more suspicious of, because his argument was basically that Jain seemed to be playing less erratically than usual, after multiple games in which Jain has said he wants to be taken more seriously as a player. I just find it interesting that he has conveniently forgotten that. Jain could be playing a long game, of course, but I am doubtful.

Edited October 24, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Tulir he/him]

For now, I'm going to ask Rulit and Joel why they voted for Jain last Cycle. As I said before, Jain doesn't seem like he should have provoked a potential lynch there. One vote yes, but two?

• Rulit also voted for Jain because he hadn't posted, then shortly after when Jain did post, Rulit didn't remove it. In fact, Jain posted twice, and considering the time when Rulit voted for Dui, there should have been more than enough time for him to retract that vote. So I'd like to know why that was not removed.

Yes, I was on and could have switched my vote off for someone else, but I didn't.  I chose not too because Jain keeps on popping up in my list of suspicions, so I decided to keep the vote on him.  I'm not sure how I feel now that the result was a tie, somehow I missed that last cycle.  

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Current Votes:

 

Gamma(1): pir2h

Ashiok(1): The Only Joe

Tulir(1): Aonar

pir2h(1): Araris

The Only Joe(2): Gamma and Wyrm.

 

@Gamma: No one that I can find Completely agreed with Mailliw's Plan, but enough of us went along with it that it worked. And now that Mailliw's Innocence has been confirmed, we know it wasn't a plot by the forgotten to get more of them on one day or the other. And your plan was literally just have everyone who didn't make a line of warding make one. That could work, but Then we'd have no way to confirm whether or not everyone participated, though the lines of Making. If we all follow the Schedule, and report on what our counterpart did, we can find out who isn't doing protection on the right days. Which could lead us to another Forgotten.

 

@Wyrm: I voted for Jain because he didn't do his Customary Rant. That's all. I know he's a Semi-skilled player, when he put his mind to it. He proved that at the end of the Kandra Game. I also no longer consider his Erraticness to be his 'Normal' mode of play. And I just have a gut feeling. I'm still suspicious of him. I'm just more suspicious of Ashiok.

 

EDIT: I'm leaving in an Hour to go Camping, so I won't be able to defend myself Further. There's a good chance I'll by Lynched today, so I'm just going to give you my Suspicions. Jain and Ashiok for the Reasons I have said. I think the third Forgotten is either Araris or Gamma. At this point, If I changed my Vote to either of them, I would merely tie up the Votes. So I won't. What I will do is Reveal that I am in fact the Sentry. I expect to be killed for that tonight or tommorow, as I used a Line of Forbiddance yesterday. Wyrm, please take you vote off me, or you'll be playing into their Hands.

Edited October 24, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Wyrmhero he/him]

EDIT: I'm leaving in an Hour to go Camping, so I won't be able to defend myself Further. There's a good chance I'll by Lynched today, so I'm just going to give you my Suspicions. Jain and Ashiok for the Reasons I have said. I think the third Forgotten is either Araris or Gamma. At this point, If I changed my Vote to either of them, I would merely tie up the Votes. So I won't. What I will do is Reveal that I am in fact the Sentry. I expect to be killed for that tonight or tommorow, as I used a Line of Forbiddance yesterday. Wyrm, please take you vote off me, or you'll be playing into their Hands.

 

The question here then is whether or not Joel is claiming to be the Sentry legitimately or not. It's not a role we can test for, so it's a safe role to claim. It could just be that Joel wants to avoid being lynched by claiming that. But at the same time, we can't just lynch him to test that, since it's a more and more vital role as we continue on with the game, so we must scrutinise this claim.

• He voted for Jain in both Cycle 1 and 2, and Ashiok this Cycle. Now, I've already said that I didn't like his reasoning for voting for Jain, and now I'm wondering if his gut is a Forsaken Forgotten.
• His vote for Ashiok is, in my opinion, a bit more solid. Ashiok has not contributed much to discussions, and has not voted yet, I believe. That is starting to add up a little bit in my mind.
• He has also pretty clearly laid out his suspicions earlier on, which is good. There could perhaps be some misdirection in his grouping of trust/don't trust, but it would be a pretty big risk to try that, I think.

Is it worth enough of a risk of a Sentry (perhaps our only one) to kill a Forgotten? In this case... I don't think so. Joel doesn't yet strike me as a Forgotten in an obvious manner. Don't let me be the only one to think about this though - It would be dangerous to simply take him at his word without considering it.

 

Honestly, at the moment I don't know who to vote for. I may feel different in the morning, but I think there's still a lot of discussion to be had over the next fifteen-or-so hours. I'll reassess the situation then. For now... We haven't heard from Will this Cycle.

 

Edit: ...Of course we haven't heard from Will this Cycle. My defence is that it's late >>. Leaving that mistake there for posterity. We haven't heard from Roland yet this Cycle, but I'm not suspicious of him at the moment, due to his actions on the first Cycle. Hmm... I would still like to hear Chase's reasonings for voting as she has so far.

Edited October 24, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Ashiok]

So... The people on the chopping block right now are me, Chase, and Joe, right?

 

Me: I'm not being suspicious, trust me? That's the best I've got. Other than the obvious (I viewed Chase and found protection... Which also semi-clears Chase in my mind. Why would a Forsaken assigned to chalkling duty make a LoF or LoW? It's not like she'd be attacked by a Scholar t1...) Problem there is that y'all would have to take my word for it.

 

Chase: See above. The only reason to lynch her is that she hasn't been very useful so far. I'm 90% certain she's not a forgotten. 

 

Joel: Well... I dunno. "Oh, I'm [role that is important yet unverifiable]. Please don't kill me because if you do, the forgotten will get what they want." Seems like a gambit to me. Also, if he's gonna die tonight, it doesn't really matter if we lynch him, does it? Just a thought.

 

Bonus Round!!!

Jain: He's not playing like he usually does. And there are two possible reasons. 1. he decided to join the rational people (unlikely)

2. He's finally team evil (SUPER LIKELY)

 

I'm leaning towards Joel right now, but I'll view whichever of Jain or Joe isn't lynched tonight.

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Me: I'm not being suspicious, trust me? That's the best I've got. Other than the obvious (I viewed Chase and found protection... Which also semi-clears Chase in my mind. Why would a Forsaken assigned to chalkling duty make a LoF or LoW? It's not like she'd be attacked by a Scholar t1...) Problem there is that y'all would have to take my word for it.

 

That isn't the best way you can prove your alignment, Ash. Chase never confirmed it.

 

Chase: See above. The only reason to lynch her is that she hasn't been very useful so far. I'm 90% certain she's not a forgotten. 

 

Chase knew she would be scanned that night, since we've set up a rotation of people to scan their counterparts. She could have set up that line to feign innocence. 

 

Joel: Well... I dunno. "Oh, I'm [role that is important yet unverifiable]. Please don't kill me because if you do, the forgotten will get what they want." Seems like a gambit to me. Also, if he's gonna die tonight, it doesn't really matter if we lynch him, does it? Just a thought.

 

I can't seem to find a right word to describe what Joe could be doing right now. Put it simply, it's a bit like trying to reverse-psychology the Eliminartors. You publicly open yourself up for a kill, which sort of discourages the Eliminators. It's what I did in the last days of Game 8. It's a gambit, though, and a risky one for both sides.

 

 

 

Bonus Round!!!

Jain: He's not playing like he usually does. And there are two possible reasons. 1. he decided to join the rational people (unlikely)

2. He's finally team evil (SUPER LIKELY)

 

I'm leaning towards Joel right now, but I'll view whichever of Jain or Joe isn't lynched tonight.

 

Look at Wyrm's post. Look at the end of Game 8.

 

 

Ash, you've given me reason to suspect you and Chase.

 

You've defended Chase quite a bit, even though you never tried to defend someone as much in previous games. Now, this can easily be seen as an act of charity for a new player.

 

What is funny, though, is the fact that when you revealed that you had scanned Chase, she didn't react at all to you. Chase counter-voted Wyrm when he voted for her, which shows that she is a bit of an agressive or paranoid player. But strangely enough, she didn't respond to the scanning. She didn't even mention you in her RP. Strange

 

Admittedly, she did vote for you on the first cycle, but she quickly changed it, for no reason at all. Strange

 

Finally, Chase protected something out of turn, and she never explained why.

 

Sufficient evidence, in my view, for me to vote for Chase. However, it happens to be near the end of the cycle, and if I do vote for her and as a result lynch her, then I will be branded as a band-wagonner and a possible Eliminator, since I made a late vote, and therefore be possibly voted. But if I don't then we have a tie, and thus miss out on an opportunity to lynch an Eliminatr. What a quandary. 

 

Oh well. In the name of (Self-Righteous) Justice, and as the Hand of Inquisition, Chase.

 

Edit: Colour

Edited October 25, 2014 by Lightsworn Panda

[Ashiok]

@Jain On cycle 1, Chase was supposed to be scanning, not warding. That's why I was confused. I was the odd person out that time, so I scanned somebody who I was suspicious of. Chase. Turns out she wasn't using chalklings. IDK what was up with that. She wasn't supposed to be scanned that night, but she was (Was I not supposed to do that?)

 

Also, whenever I contribute useful discussion beyond giving information, I have a tendency to be lynched that day. Just saying...

 

Oh. I just did the math for forgotten and chalklings, and I do not like those numbers if Joe dies. Whoops. I guess we give him the benefit of the doubt this cycle, and we'll see what goes on from there?

[Aonar he/him]

Actually, Ash, creating a Line of Warding/Forbiddance is a great idea for the Forgotten, if they don't think they can get away with forcing a wild chalkling kill. It prevents them from being discovered by rithmatists, like yourself, who are drawing chalklings. If fact, if I were the Forgotten, I would probably be alternating kills with Lines of Forbiddance, assuming that there are only two left (and the same player cannot make consecutive kills). This would still apply the first cycle, seeing how Dui had gone inactive.

 

Given that you are one of my top suspects at the moment, I find this rather weak defence more than a little suspect as well.

 

Perhaps the even better question, that I'm surprised no one has bothered asking, is this: why did you target Chase? You shouldn't have had anything return from your chalkling, whether she had been a Forgotten using Vigor/Killing, or a rithmatist using Making. That means you had absolutely no motivation for Seeking her, other than "finding her suspicious." When you apply this in context and realize that you wouldn't have learned anything from your action, this seems incredibly silly. In fact, an non-standard result would only seem to confirm Chase's innocence, seeing how LoW/F aren't useful to the Forgotten the first cycle. 

 

This leaves us with three options. Either, A) You're an Artist, B, you're a Forgotten, or C) you didn't read the rules for Lines of Making. Right at the moment, I'm guessing Forgotten. However, Chase has more votes, and if she's a Forgotten, you probably are, and vice versa, so that vote works for me. Rlint.

 

Falaise was looking glum, slowly rubbing a piece of chalk between his fingers. "Dusts. They seem to have found others to suspect." He sighed shrugged his shoulders. "Well, there's always the Forgotten, I suppose. Not quite as satisfying, but justice will still be served." 

 

Aaron shook his head and looked around, making sure no one was nearby. "Can it, Falaise. I still don't know what the heck you're talking about. I never did anything to you. I figured I just made you up."

 

"I'm no less real than you are. With the number of lies you've spun about yourself, I'm probably more." Falaise was kneeling on the ground, absentmindedly scrawling designs onto the bare rock. The lines and shapes he drew looked strangely familiar to Aaron, but they weren't rithmatic. Not that he knew, anyways. 

 

"Wait. Stop. What was that, what you just drew?" It was a series of curving lines that formed two pairs of perpendicular crescents. Something about it was extremely familiar, and made bile rise in the back of Aaron's throat.

 

"This? This is nothing. A doodle." Something about the expression on his face said otherwise, however. Falaise was waiting for something. He was searching for something in Aaron's reaction.

 

"I... I know that Line. It... silences... things." He paused, with his hands on his head, trying to understand the vague flashes of memory he was experiencing. "How do I know that? Why do I know that?" His voice was rising as he spoke. Some of the other rithmatists were starting to take notice. 

 

Joel came over and put a hand on his shoulder. "Hey man, you all right?"

 

"Yeah, yeah... I'm fine." Aaron shrugged Joel's hand off and turned back towards his tent, shaking his head in a vain attempt to clear it. "I just need a minute. I'll be out again soon."

 

Falaise stood off to the side, grinning widely throughout the whole exchange.

Edited October 25, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[Sart he/him]

Tempers were heated as the platoon bickered through the night. People began to suspect Joel of being the murderer.

Wyatt shouted, "I remember getting up in the middle of the night, and seeing you wander around camp. That's suspicious enough to kill you in my book!"

Joel responded, "You idiots! I was patrolling the camp, making sure the wild chalklings didn't attack. Would a Forgotten do that?"

Joel's accusers reassessed the situation. If Joel wasn't the killer, then who was? Eventually, they decided that it must have been Chase! After all, she was the only one who had experience murdering people. She stared defiantly at them, as the votes came rolling in. She knew she couldn't outrun them, and though she wanted to, she doubted she could fight them off. She sighed, and accepted her fate. The lynchers found the only gun in camp, and shot her, point blank.

The platoon tried to get some rest, even though the sun had rose in the sky. One man, however, was still feeling paranoid. Aaron Falaise, as he was known, was scared out of his mind. They would find out what happened eventually, and then he would be doomed! He heard something outside his tent rustle. He got up an drew a shaky Line of Forbiddance. His killer didn't care that much about it. After all, he had thrown that rock to distract the paranoid freak. He took his butcher's knife, and plunged it into Aaron's heart. "Aaron" expired, never knowing who had killed him.

Chase Tearing was a Rithmatist!
Aaron Falaise was a Rithmatist!

Vote Count:
Aaron Roddy: Joel (1)
Chase Tearing: Tavi, Aaron Falaise, Jain, Wyatt (4)
Joel: Dig (1)
Dig: Chase Tearing (1)

Player List:

 

• (The Only Joe) Joel, a Long time soldier at Nebrask
• (Araris Valerian) Tavi, a troublesome, but bright young man.
• (Alvron) Ronald, a Short man with White hair and piercing blue eyes.
• (AonarFaileas) Aaron, a Graduate of Académie de Montréal. Rithmatist
• (Tulir) Rlint, a Dirty Conner a Policeman.
• (Mailliw73) Will, a Blonde Male. Rithmatist
• (Lightsworn Panda) Jain, a new Soldier.
• (Wyrmhero) Wyatt, a Senior Soldier
• (Elend'sSecondCousin) Dui, a JoSeun Immigrant who eats chalk. Forgotten
• (Kasimir) Samuel Kessen, a man who hates the JoSeun way of life.
• (Gamma Fiend) Dig, a Digger.
• (pir2h) Chase Tearing, a Rithamantic Murderer. Rithmatist
• (Metacognition) Matt, a man seen through the eyes of others. Artist
• (Twelvethrootoftwo) Tory Farth, a man who exists
• (Ashiok) Aaron Roddy, A Baseball Coach

This cycle ends at 9:00 AM Central Time on Monday.

Edited June 16, 2016 by Alvron

[Wyrmhero he/him]

So it's interesting that Joel is indeed alive. We have some information here - The Forgotten wanted to kill Aonar more than they did Joel. Interestingly, they even apparently used a Line of Vigor as well to ensure it (assuming the writeup is correct), so it's not as if they expected that Joel was baiting them with that knowledge and that it wouldn't get through. There are a couple of reasons I can think of as to why they'd do that:

• They expected Joel to be lying about his being a Sentry. I'm doubtful of this, as such a claim should probably be checked out as a matter of course anyway. Joel was only in mild danger at the time, so the claim does seem slightly suspicious, but if we consider that he wouldn't be able to defend himself that Cycle, then it becomes less so.
• Aonar was a lot more dangerous in their eyes than Joel/a Sentry. Perhaps Aonar was getting close to something that they didn't like, and wanted to kill him before he shared his conclusion. I am also doubtful of this though - Chase turned out to be innocent, and Aonar admitted to not having much of a conclusion on the previous Cycle with his diagram.
• It could however be a bit of a long-term plan with Ashiok, since Aonar believed that if one was innocent, both were. I find this doubtful as well, since Aonar said this late in the cycle.
• The Forgotten are not expecting to make any Wild Chalkling kills, and so don't care about the Sentry. In their eyes, any Rithmatist is good enough for them. As an aside, this suggests that Aonar's death doesn't 'hurt' our first Cycle defences, since he was apparently Line of Vigor'ed.
• They think we will lynch Joel for them. Joel looks a little suspicious, sure, but there weren't that many votes on him at the time. They could perhaps have changed targets late in the Cycle, but there weren't many posts after Joel left, so I doubt it.
• Joel is a Forgotten, who panicked a little and fakeclaimed in order to pass suspicion. If it was this, then it certainly worked. Only Ashiok, Jain and I discussed this, so we didn't get anywhere. We should probably scruitinise this a little more, with more input from other people.

Of these, I think that either the Forgotten don't care about the Wild Chalkling kill, or Joel is a Forgotten himself. I am still suspicious of Ashiok as well, however, because I just think things fall a little too neatly into place, and he's not been very helpful this game. It might be nothing, I admit, but I am still slightly uneasy.

 

However, my current vote is for Alvron, because he didn't turn up at all last Cycle. I didn't even notice it until looking at the previous thread just now. It was a while ago now, but I seem to recall him being relatively hidden away when he was an Eliminator in LG5, and this feels similar. His game is being set up as well, so I don't think he can claim to be busy.

Edited October 26, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I Lived? That was unexpected. Thank you Wyrm.

 

Ok then. I actually am the Sentry. I revealed that in an effort to force the Forgotten's Hand. I was hoping they'd target me in case Wyrm removed his vote which he did, wasting their Kill. That didn't work, which I'm fine with, since I'm left alive.

 

As for them not targeting me, They either thought I was bluffing about my Lines, (Which was a possibility that crossed my mind, but I doubted would happen), or they weren't on after my Reveal. I'm thinking the Second Option, but I have no way to tell who wasn't on After I got off, since I just got home.

 

I've realized that my Suspicions for Jain are weak, but I still think he might be Forgotten. My Suspicions for Ashiok are still strong though, So I'll continue to Vote for him.

 

As for Alvron, all he's done so Far is vote for Dui. I assumed he was Innocent, but Ashiok is also pretty Suspicious. I'll keep an Eye on him.

[Alvron]

However, my current vote is for Alvron, because he didn't turn up at all last Cycle. I didn't even notice it until looking at the previous thread just now. It was a while ago now, but I seem to recall him being relatively hidden away when he was an Eliminator in LG5, and this feels similar. His game is being set up as well, so I don't think he can claim to be busy.

I can claim to be busy.  In fact I am very busy.  At the moment I am pulling 16 hour days at work and will be for the next couple of days as well. Stupid public holidays.

 

I didn't bother voting last round as I have had very little time to go through all the posts and form any opinions other than my initial suspicions of Rlint.  I did however send in my orders.

[Kasimir he/him]

So I'm back, my shoulder still hurts despite all the painkillers and muscle relaxants, and if anyone has any tips about what to do about that sort of thing, could you throw 'em at me in a PM or something, because this is starting to annoy me big-time.
 

Ok then. I actually am the Sentry. I revealed that in an effort to force the Forgotten's Hand. I was hoping they'd target me in case Wyrm removed his vote which he did, wasting their Kill. That didn't work, which I'm fine with, since I'm left alive.

First things first, I simply don't understand how that wastes a Forgotten Kill. Please explain it to me.

With regard to what King said, that we can explain Aonar’s death and Joe’s survival in terms of the Forgotten deciding not to go for wild chalkling kills might make sense in that it can explain our current data, but to me, its weakness is that it leaves open a big glaring question: why not? Joe presented them what must surely be a tempting target: the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone. By taking down a Sentry, who affords the camp a passive +1 defense bonus as long as he’s not dead, and who can potentially ward the camp, they’ve not just taken down a Rithmatist, but they’d have struck a huge blow to the camp’s defense.

So as far as it looks to me, they had a tactical advantage to be gained from killing Joe, and if they could afford to hit Aonar with a LoV, then they could surely have done the same to Joe, if they were worried he was attempting to bait a kill. So why didn’t they?

One solution would be Joe’s being a Forgotten. But I’m not willing to put too much credence to it at this point, because I don’t think Joe’s behaviour is consistent with that of an ostensible Forgotten. Basically, if he were trying to pull a Bartbug, he’s not really doing it right.

The other possibilities include: concern about Aonar possibly having extra Rithmatic lines (this happened late in the cycle; the coordination needed to LoV and kill Aonar--if the write-up is to be trusted as an indication of what happened--seems to indicate that it probably wasn’t the case), and Aonar’s opposite number deciding to execute him for fear of discovery, except we already know that Aonar’s opposite is Chase, who was lynched and discovered innocent. We could perhaps look at who Aonar flagged besides Ash: perhaps the fear was that Aonar was on to something. Really, the easiest answer would be that they were more worried about Aonar, but that does lead to the uncomfortable contrastive question: why Aonar than Joe when all strategic indicators point otherwise?
 
The upshot is that although I'm not making much sense out of the kill, I think Joe should keep using LoFs to protect himself. At the moment, it would take more to convince me that he's not a Forgotten, and therefore if he's not a Forgotten, then I have some weak reason to believe he's not lying about being a Sentry (he might, for instance, have decided to pretend to be a Gunner try to draw a kill and leave the real Sentry alive.) And as I've mentioned, tactical considerations suggest we at least make it difficult for the Forgotten to kill Joe, as his being alive gives us an automatic +2 to defense.
 
A more fruitful line of inquiry is for us to look at where our potential Forgotten would have to be. Our current problem with regard to locating them is we don't know how many people followed Maili's plan (I certainly didn't, as I mentioned previously, I threw up an early LoW because I wasn't online again until after the cycle), and Ash did something else on Cycle One as well. And then we have Araris's plan, which certainly isn't incompatible with Maili's, and Gamma's plan, which was "everyone who hasn't Warded, do it today". In between who is following which plan (Gamma mentioned in his post that he'd be following his plan, or that's the way I read it), I think narrowing down on who our Forgotten are just got more difficult. If they're following a different plan, then it seems as though their partner would either have to be following a different plan as well, not an Artist, or a Forgotten too.
 
(I do have more to suggest in this regard, and I'll be back online when I get home, which will be in a few hours.)

 

 

 

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

First things first, I simply don't understand how that wastes a Forgotten Kill. Please explain it to me.

 

I don't understand how you're wasting an Eliminator Kill either, Joe. Please explain.

 

 

With regard to what King said, that we can explain Aonar’s death and Joe’s survival in terms of the Forgotten deciding not to go for wild chalkling kills might make sense in that it can explain our current data, but to me, its weakness is that it leaves open a big glaring question: why not? Joe presented them what must surely be a tempting target: the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone. By taking down a Sentry, who affords the camp a passive +1 defense bonus as long as he’s not dead, and who can potentially ward the camp, they’ve not just taken down a Rithmatist, but they’d have struck a huge blow to the camp’s defense.

So as far as it looks to me, they had a tactical advantage to be gained from killing Joe, and if they could afford to hit Aonar with a LoV, then they could surely have done the same to Joe, if they were worried he was attempting to bait a kill. So why didn’t they?

One solution would be Joe’s being a Forgotten. But I’m not willing to put too much credence to it at this point, because I don’t think Joe’s behaviour is consistent with that of an ostensible Forgotten. Basically, if he were trying to pull a Bartbug, he’s not really doing it right.

 

The Eliminators could be trying to pull the old let-the-Villagers-lynch-the-unkilled-target trick. However, considering how Joe had a rather important role, then I'm inclined to believe that Aonar was actually warming up on something.

 

I'm getting a bit concerned about the number of dead Rithmatists there are. I'm guessing there's about 12-13 Rithmatists in this game, and about a third of them are already dead. Wild chalking kills will most likely start popping up in a few days, and before soon the Warding system will become useless. We need to end this game soon.

 

Ash, you are semi-cleared to me, since you were defending Chase before she died. Of course, you just be protecting her to make yourself seem less like an Eliminator.

 

Araris. You've been under the radar for quite some time. Care to join us?

 

Edit: Jump in a hole and die, Colour Editor

Edited October 26, 2014 by Lightsworn Panda

[Wyrmhero he/him]

Thank you Alvron. Hope it gets a bit easier for you soon then.

 

I will do what you didn't do in your post and suggestions of suspicion, and put a vote on Tulir, but not for any reason other than provoking discussion from him. It's been almost a full day since the Cycle started, and we haven't heard from Tulir, Twei, Gamma, Araris or Ashiok. That's half the players still in the game, which is far too much in my opinion.

 

Kas and Jain do bring up good points about why Joel should have been targeted last Cycle with the kill. We are getting into dangerous waters with regards to the number of people able to use Lines of Warding, and it is possible that the death of a Sentry could tip us over the edge there. Losing a person each Cycle in an unblockable manner would hurt us a lot at this point. But that just muddies the waters even further. Why wouldn't they do this if it was so useful? Anyone else have any thoughts on that?

[twelfthrootoftwo]

The Forgotten may not have seen an immediate gain in killing a Sentry. With an information advantage, they should be able to figure out whether they could get a chalking kill this cycle. If not, there's no advantage to killing Joe last cycle as opposed to this, since we're using a maximum Line of Warding strategy so no extra resources would be lost. And so on. At that point, it becomes a choice between other factors, and Aonar did hint at having access to Advanced Rithmatics. (...Why? It seems too obvious to be an acknowledgement to the sender.)

 

If the split is 7:3 (ignoring the unlikely possibility of 3 starting Forgotten), then the Forgotten have a ~50% chance (depending on how they are distributed between the two warding groups) of being able to force one chalking kill with Lines of Vigour. If that were to expose one of their members, I can certainly see that being an undesirable exchange.

 

Also, I note a gendered pronoun for the killer. Unfortunately it gets us nowhere, since we lynched the only female character.

[Kasimir he/him]

Back. Now, I suggest we go over the patterns of the kills again, in order to try and work out our Eliminators.

 

Cycle One: Dui [Group 2] was lynched, and Meta [Group 2] was killed. The write-up suggests that Dui executed Meta and was, in turn, executed. We have no suggestion as to what Team Evil was doing. Notable as well is no significant resistance to Dui's being lynched. Meta has previously mentioned that Eliminators may be carefully hiding in those votes, but I think we've just about long exhausted the usefulness of that line of thought.

 

Cycle Two: No one was lynched, and Maili [Group 1] was killed. The write-up suggests that Maili was straightforwardly killed (by which I mean that if we take the write-up at its word, then there doesn't seem to be any other lines involved in his death.)

 

Cycle Three: Chase [Group 2] was lynched and Aonar [Group 1] was killed. Most notable for this kill, we see that Aonar put up a Line of Forbiddance, and so it seems likely that the Forgotten hit him with a Line of Vigor. This is the first kill in which we actually notice the coordinated action of two Forgotten. Just to recap: Group 2 was on Making, and Group 1 was on Warding.

 

So the question is: what does the appearance of the first LoV-kill combination tell us? As Jain mentioned, and I take that point under advisement, we may want to take a brief look at who Aonar suspected, in case he was on to something. Aonar did suspect Ash, but he phrased that suspicion very carefully: Chase's being a Forgotten makes probable that Ash is a Forgotten and vice versa. As such, I don't think that connection helps us here. Who else did Aonar suspect? Well, he noted that he was also suspicious of Rlint. But he's already been called out once at this point, and I'm reluctant to stack a second vote on someone who hasn't had the opportunity to respond to the first. I may change this based on extenuating circumstances later on. I think the cost of a mislynch could be very high for us, because we could potentially open ourselves to a second (wild chalkling) kill. What we cannot afford is a wild chalkling kill and a mislynch, because that would put us 4-3, at which point our only hope would be to mass-LoF and that would just extend things by one cycle.

 

It feels a lot like we're retreading the same old lines of thought and arguing over the same old pieces of data. I think at some point, we're going to have to open up discussion again and reassess, or risk just going around in futile circles. With that in mind, I'll put a vote on Roddy to see if we can get a full set of people discussing this time.

Edit: Colour-change because I'm a doofus who missed that Joe had redded Ash already, and thought that no one had yet decided to prod Ash.

Edited October 26, 2014 by Kasimir

[Tulir he/him]

Ok, so Joel was rising on my list of suspicions, but him claiming to be a Sentry lowers it a bit.  I currently think Dig is one of the most likely suspects in my mind, despite being the only vote on the Forgotten kill.

Edited October 27, 2014 by Tulir

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

First things first, I simply don't understand how that wastes a Forgotten Kill. Please explain it to me.

 

I don't understand how you're wasting an Eliminator Kill either, Joe. Please explain.

At the Time of my Reveal, I was set to be Lynched. I assumed that I would get lynched, since revealing that I was a Sentry is a Suspicious Move. So I was hoping that the Forgotten would be on ealy, and change their target to me, knowing that others (Like Wyrm) would be on later, and could retract their Vote, (Which He did). So I saw the small possibility of them wasting a kill by Targeting the Guy who was also being Lynched. It was a small hope, but I figured it would be a Silver lining in my being Lynched.

 

And I would like to propose a Change to the LoW Plan. Lines of Vigor Cancel all Actions except for othe Lines of Vigor. So instead of having the 2nd group make Lines of Making, we have them Make Lines of Vigor, Targeting the Person Below them in their group. This ensures That the only Actions being done are the Lines of Warding in the other group, allowing us to Identify which group the Killer was in. Unless the Killer has another Forgotten directly Above them. Thoughts?

[Alvron]

After finally going through the last couple of cycles, nothing came up that changes my feeling about Rlint, so that's where my vote goes at moment.

 

I doubt that Joel is evil again.  During LG8, I got a good read on his evil style and it feels different in this game.  Feels more like his LG6 style in which he was on team good.

 

Roddy is alot quietier than normal this round.  He has popped in a couple of times but hasn't posted anything despite having a vote on him.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

If I chose to vote for someone, I am either going to vote for someone with no votes, or as the tiebreaker. Well, I already am the tiebreaker. I'd really like to have more information at hand here, but the Cycle ends in about four hours, and considering the timezone issue, I don't think I will get anything new to go on.

 

Of the three current choices up for the lynch, only Tulir has come online and defended himself, but I'm not satisfied with his defence. No reasoning given for a vote like that sparks me as very strange, particularly this late in the game. Why is Gamma suspicious to you, Tulir? Just because he's inactive? Or is there really no reason at all?

 

And I would like to propose a Change to the LoW Plan. Lines of Vigor Cancel all Actions except for othe Lines of Vigor. So instead of having the 2nd group make Lines of Making, we have them Make Lines of Vigor, Targeting the Person Below them in their group. This ensures That the only Actions being done are the Lines of Warding in the other group, allowing us to Identify which group the Killer was in. Unless the Killer has another Forgotten directly Above them. Thoughts?

 

There are a few flaws in this plan. In order of increasing importance:

• Firstly, it's a bit too late in the Cycle for us to switch to that plan, though it could certainly be used tomorrow.
• Secondly, all it takes for things to go wrong is someone not being a Rithmatist and therefore unable to check on the next person to muddle things a bit. By your suggestion, we'd all be looking at the other group for the killer instead of the actual one.
• Thirdly, there's no reason for the Forgotten to use Lines of Warding with this plan. It just gives the Forgotten free reign when they're meant to be using Lines of Warding.

The plan doesn't really work, sadly. We need the Lines of Making in order to ensure that the other half isn't doing the kill, but all that suggests is that the kill is coming from the half using the Lines of Warding rather than Vigor.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

There are a few flaws in this plan. In order of increasing importance:

• Firstly, it's a bit too late in the Cycle for us to switch to that plan, though it could certainly be used tomorrow.
• Secondly, all it takes for things to go wrong is someone not being a Rithmatist and therefore unable to check on the next person to muddle things a bit. By your suggestion, we'd all be looking at the other group for the killer instead of the actual one.
• Thirdly, there's no reason for the Forgotten to use Lines of Warding with this plan. It just gives the Forgotten free reign when they're meant to be using Lines of Warding.

The plan doesn't really work, sadly. We need the Lines of Making in order to ensure that the other half isn't doing the kill, but all that suggests is that the kill is coming from the half using the Lines of Warding rather than Vigor.

 

Your First point: Yes, I hadn't really expected to switch this time.

 

Your Second Point: That is unfortunately Correct. I Hadn't thought of that.

 

Your Third Point: There's no reason for the Forgotten to make Lines of Warding Now. Without people actually reporting on what their Terget did, people can do whatever.

[Sart he/him]

     Rlint wasn't worried. Although he wasn't a Rithmatist, he was a highly trained police-man. He knew how to handle his own in a fight, and he wasn't afraid to go down swinging. He had been assigned to this platoon to keep the Rithmatists' egos in check. He would effectively coordinate them, making sure that they were safe. He had failed at that mission. Still, he wasn't completely useless. He had learned of advanced Rithmatic lines. They didn't make any sense to him, but he knew about them, and he had finally gotten around to teaching someone else about them. He smiled, and decided to take a nap. Unfortunately, the camp was getting angry at him. Wyatt and Ronald burst into his tent. Demanding him to answer for his crimes, bleary eyed, Rlint tried to fight them off, but one of them grabbed Rlint's gun and shot him, once, twice, three times. They were disgusted with themselves afterwards, and hauled the body to Dig.
    Meanwhile, Dig had been busy. The number of dead bodies kept piling up. Digging graves wasn't very fun. He had even more work to do now, since Rlint had been shot. What was wrong with them? Dig had decided that finding out who was evil generally led to more evil. Digging trenches, on the other hand, wasn't evil, and so he must be good. He smiled at his simplistic thought, and started on the next grave. He didn't realize it was going to be a double grave though. The Forgotten took one of Dig's shovels and whacked him into the grave. A light covering of dirt concealed the body, as the evil man walked away. He smiled. The camp was doomed, and they couldn't do anything to stop it.

Rlint was a Non-Rithmatist.

Dig was a Rithmatist.

Aaron Roddy: Joel (1)
Rlint: Alvron, Wyatt (2)
Jain: Tavi (1)

Player List:

• (The Only Joe) Joel, a Long time soldier at Nebrask
• (Araris Valerian) Tavi, a troublesome, but bright young man.
• (Alvron) Ronald, a Short man with White hair and piercing blue eyes.
• (AonarFaileas) Aaron, a Graduate of Académie de Montréal. Rithmatist
• (Tulir) Rlint, a Policeman. Non-Rithmatist
• (Mailliw73) Will, a Blonde Male. Rithmatist
• (Lightsworn Panda) Jain, a new Soldier.
• (Wyrmhero) Wyatt, a Senior Soldier
• (Elend'sSecondCousin) Dui, a JoSeun Immigrant who eats chalk. Forgotten
• (Kasimir) Samuel Kessen, a man who hates the JoSeun way of life.
• (Gamma Fiend) Dig, a Digger. Rithmatist
• (pir2h) Chase Tearing, a Rithamantic Murderer. Rithmatist
• (Metacognition) Matt, a man seen through the eyes of others. Artist
• (Twelvethrootoftwo) Tory Farth, a man who exists
• (Ashiok) Aaron Roddy, A Baseball Coach

This cycle will end at 9:00 AM Central Time on Wednesday.

Edited October 27, 2014 by a smart guy

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

​I'm beginning to Think I'm still alive because I'm completely Wrong about my Suspicions, one of which I mentioned was Gamma. As such, I'm just going to Assume that Ashiok and Jain are innocent, and I know I am, giving me a list of 5 names, 3 of which are Forgotten.

 

• (Araris Valerian) Tavi, a troublesome, but bright young man.
• (Alvron) Ronald, a Short man with White hair and piercing blue eyes.
• (Wyrmhero) Wyatt, a Senior Soldier
• (Kasimir) Samuel Kessen, a man who hates the JoSeun way of life.
• (Twelvethrootoftwo) Tory Farth, a man who exists

Of those three, Twelvethroot, Alvron and Araris have been the most suspicious, being Quieter than normal, and overall not proposing anything much. So For now, I will vote for Alvron. I'm in school right now, so I don't have much time to gather Evidence, So i'll do that when I get home tonight.

Edited October 28, 2014 by The Only Joe