Emerald Falcon Posted January 12, 2023 Report Share Posted January 12, 2023 N2 - Flamingo survived, possible self-Lurch D3 - Lion survived, Thug/Mistborn N3 - Flamingo survived again ; possibilities - D4 - Crocodile dies (someone made sure Crocodile died over Flamingo, malicious or innocent. Was thinking if it could be an evil person knowing Flamingo would drain another kill in the Night, but why bring attention to Croc who was relatively not under suspicion) N4 - Flamingo survives x3 ; D5 - Flamingo dies N5 - Lion survives Let's look at the possibilities surrounding Flamingo's survival - They were protected by someone else in N2/N4, and self protected in N3. The likelihood of Mistborn rolling Iron exactly when needed in alternate cycles is highly improbable to match so well, leading to a case of a second Spiked Lurcher. They self-protected in N2/N4 and were protected by someone else in N3. Remember, Lion is either a Thug or Mistborn-rolled Pewter during D3, so they could not have protected Flamingo in N3 (cannot roll Iron and Pewter in the same cycle). This leads to a scenario of either Iron-rolled Spiked Mistborn or Spiked Lurcher. Lion claims to have rolled Pewter during D3, D5 and now D6. This still does not exclude the Spiked Lurcher/another Spiked Mistborn who could protect Flamingo N3. But this is likely a fabrication and the most likely solution is Opal Lion is a simple Spiked Thug and was protected by the second Spiked Lurcher last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 12, 2023 Report Share Posted January 12, 2023 Avil suddenly had way too many errands to run. Where had these responsibilities come from? He was unemployed and lived alone. He reached the town square, took a moment to catch his breath and quickly made his point. Guy [Opal Lion] would be put up for trial next. [OOC: Lion’s claim is pretty much the oldest trick in the book, meant to stall for time. I do not understand why Scorpion is voting for their teammate Penguin, however I might just be wrong about Penguin. Or Scorpion. However, Lion’s flip will surely have a bearing on Scorpion’s.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivory Dragonfly Posted January 12, 2023 Report Share Posted January 12, 2023 hi, hehe something came up rather unexpectedly, so ive been super busy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 13, 2023 Report Share Posted January 13, 2023 I've gotten sick and so I didn't anything done in the way of analysis. I will try to put out Lion tomorrow and the D3 votes. Which is ambitious given that I'm sick. Well it will be a distraction at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 13, 2023 Report Share Posted January 13, 2023 19 hours ago, Charcoal Hyena said: While I appreciate any attempt to diversify the vote as a matter of principle, this isn't necessarily the best look for somebody I think might be E/E with Lion, you know? Where exactly was all this introspection and logic when Flamingo was up on the chopping block? ...it's the alchohol, isn't it. Don't you know that drinking at your tender age is probably illegal or something >:| *burps for 18 straight minutes* excuse me. When I voted for flamingo, I did previously explain my reasons for wanting to murder the bird. I also previoushly explained my view that the way that flamingo was being treated, basically multiple days straight of being attacked at night and then bandwagoned during the day, was probably making his experience of the game a not very fun one. And that although I believed Flamingo was the most likely to be shpiked at the time, it was consequently difficult for me to muster much glee at his demise. so there’sh my logic and introspection. If you have any problemsh with my logic point it out, but don’t make vague referencesh to “how I look” without reading what I’ve said. So maybe lion can be a shpiked, and your theory about the shpiked having, what, a thug, a lurcher, and a shecond lurcher, is somehow correct. But honeshtly to me that seems like kind of a stretch, I don’t think it’s that crazy that he could jusht be an unusually sturdy village mistborn like he says. What ish your problem with me voting for penguin, exactly? Obvioushly you don’t need me to put “pressure” on lion. He has plenty of pressure already. You don’t need me to vote to assure his death. He’s going to be executed. I am simply choosing to express my opinion in the way I want. I honeshtly want to know. Im genuinely curious. What do you think I should be doing right now? Do you want me to hop on the vote for lion? Whatever shide he’s on, like flamingo he’s pretty obviously given up, it’sh like kicking a kitten. Do you want me to feel good about that? Do you want me to mindlessly jump on the vote and blend in with the crowd, like everyone else is? What doesh that accomplish? Sho *hiccup, hiccup, burp*, I will do what I want to do. Not what you want me to do. How’sh that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 13, 2023 Report Share Posted January 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: so there’sh my logic and introspection. If you have any problemsh with my logic point it out, but don’t make vague referencesh to “how I look” without reading what I’ve said. Pls no I'm rubbish at reading and especially rereading things the amount of rereading I've done in this game is abysmal why must u do this to meeeee ...Okay fine I reread it :P. None of the reasons you used to lynch Flamingo don't apply to Lion. So I think my original point stands: you're singing a pretty different tune about this vote than the Flamingo one and there isn't any villagery reason I can easily see for that. The only difference between the Flamingo train and the Lion train that I agree is legit is that the distro analysis has changed, but I've finally learnt my lesson and I don't think distro analysis is worth squat in a Tyrian Falls game. 9 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: What ish your problem with me voting for penguin, exactly? None. Feel free to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 13, 2023 Report Share Posted January 13, 2023 (edited) Yes I am singing a different tune. I’ve been singing “baby shark” for six years straight and I just learned how to sing “a hundred bottles of beer on the wall.” I’m six years old and I feel like having fun, sue me. Killing flamingo was necessary, if not shuper fun. He was spiked, after all. I will point out I did vote to kill him and explain my reasons for doing it (multiple times on multiple days). Killing lion may or may not be necessary, I don’t know, but I don’t really feel convinced that it’s necessary for me to tossh myself on that, and he hasn’t rubbed me the wrong way, so I’m just doing my own thing. Uh, also, aren’t you the one who was going “don’t kill flamingo i think he’s village” yeshterday? And now you’re not voting for either flamingo or for lion, you’re voting for me (which you did before I even said anything). But calling me suspicious, after I did vote for flamingo (which you didn’t do, I don’t think), and for not voting for lion (which you also aren’t). What happened to your tune? eh, vote for hyena, why not. Penguin hasn’t done anything really wrong, you’re just starting to *hiccup* rub me the wrong way. (If I sound irritated, I may be a little irritated, I think this alcohol has been cut with a shtronger alcohol.) Edited January 13, 2023 by Amethyst Scorpion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 13, 2023 Report Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: Uh, also, aren’t you the one who was going “don’t kill flamingo i think he’s village” yeshterday? And now you’re not voting for either flamingo or for lion, you’re voting for me (which you did before I even said anything). But calling me suspicious, after I did vote for flamingo (which you didn’t do, I don’t think), and for not voting for lion (which you also aren’t). What happened to your tune? Yeah no my tune's screwed six ways from Sunday no contest there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 13, 2023 Report Share Posted January 13, 2023 Hmm. Had been sus of Lion any way so sure. Lion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elandera she/her Posted January 14, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 You have one hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indigo Weasel Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 I kinda just want Lion dead. Lion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elandera she/her Posted January 14, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 That's the end of this turn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 (edited) Night Six: Too Smart to Live Sidor and Linaan had lingered in the abandoned factory long enough for Sidor’s agents to do their work. With Ruin’s attention diverted, they had been able to spend the night searching through Agolac’s home. When day arrived and Sidor met them for debriefing, they were ready to present their findings. “Whoever cleaned up the house didn’t do a good job,” the lead agent reported. “We uncovered stashes of empty vials with traces of iron as expected of a Lurcher, as well as empty vials of tin that Obli-gator must have made use of.” Sidor frowned. “Why would they be so sloppy? Agolac must have known he was doomed. Even if he forgot where his house was, Ruin could have directed his Spiked there.” [Ruin is quick to discard his failed servants.] “Perhaps they wanted us to think they hadn’t cleaned out the house,” a second agent speculated. “We know there was once more to find,” the lead agent continued. “In our investigation, we noticed that floors and tables were corroded while paint was stripped from the walls inside and out inconsistently. Large bare patches of wall were next to other sections completely untouched, like the paint had been deliberately removed. The weathering patterns indicate this had been going on for some time.” “What caused the corrosion?” Sidor asked. “Was there anything special about those sections of wall, or the paint itself?” “We took a sample of paint for study and our metallurgist said it had high lead content, enough that it could be extracted with aqua fortis in sufficient quantities for allomantic use.” “Did you find any other evidence of alloying tin and lead into pewter?” “We confirmed with the physician that the corrosion on the floor was from acid strong enough to extract lead. We also know from previous reports that Guy is capable of burning pewter.” “That’s not enough evidence to convict him. Even if the Spiked were making pewter, there’s no guarantee that Guy was the one they were making it for, or even if they needed it at all.” Sidor sighed. “Still, it’s enough to question him. He was already a top suspect.” [He should already be dead.] ~~~ “...Survived again!” “Prepare to die!” “... must be Spiked...” Most of the voices in the town square called for one thing. The death of Guy. “Just because someone survives doesn’t mean they should be killed,” Afandor grumbled under his breath. Oleinda patted his arm as they stood at the very edges of what was quickly becoming a mob. “We’re all scared, and we’re all suspicious.” “But why are we trying to save people in the night if they’re just going to be executed the next day?” “Because it is not one person’s responsibility to be judge and executioner. We don’t know the intentions behind the people out to take lives.” She turned towards the shouting. “At least this way, it is the townspeople who decide together.” And as much as she usually had a distaste for punishing people for survival, this was an exception. Guy had survived twice. While that was not damning, even a Thug could not get so lucky. Even one too dumb to be executed the first time around. And how he’d acted after they’d found him last night? She’d known something was off. Known there was more than any simple idiocy. Grunts and scrapes of boots on stone signaled Guy’s arrival, escorted rather roughly by the authorities. The shouts grew louder. Still, she could hear the accused speaking. Those who dragged him to the stage announced their evidence—connections with Agolac compounding with the survivals to paint a vivid picture of his involvement with the Spiked. “Can you explain how you live even still?” someone on the platform asked. “Wot? How Guy survives? Dunno. Think Guy being framed.” He said something muffled, and then Oleinda heard what sounded uncomfortably like glass being chewed. “Metals good. Maybe those help?” Afandor grunted beside her, standing straighter. “What is it?” “Guy. He looks... different. More aware, somehow.” “Guy try all kinds,” Guy said. “Maybe all helps.” Oleinda turned her head, listening more closely. She heard it then, too. He was making more sense. His speech was clearer. Had he been faking this whole time? Her chest tightened at the idea, constricting with each word Guy spoke from the platform. “I won’t die,” he continued. Afandor stepped forward and Oleinda burned her copper, knowing what he was preparing to do. They’d found another Spiked. She was sure of it. And they always caused problems when they’ve been caught. Yet Guy didn’t fight. He didn’t even accuse another. He simply accepted the justice. “Ruin will win,” he said moments before the end. “Guy will die so Ruin will win.” Opal Lion was executed! They were a Spiked Thug! Opal Lion (9): Sapphire Elephant, Pearl Chameleon, Magenta Albatross, Coral Swan, Emerald Falcon, Sunburst Toucan, Indigo Weasel, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin Amethyst Scorpion (1): Charcoal Hyena Charcoal Hyena (1): Amethyst Scorpion Night Six has begun! This turn will end Saturday, January 14, at 6:00 PM PST / Sunday January 15 at 2 a.m. GMT / 1 p.m. AEDT PMs are Open Player List: Spoiler 1. @Amethyst Scorpion - Scop 2. @Azure Mouse 3. @Charcoal Hyena - Aylia 4. @Chartreuse Penguin - Donn Keihote (Insane) 5. @Coral Swan - Onidsen (Scholar, Caroler; has animal companion) 6. @Cream Tuatara - Willam (Terris Steward) Vanilla Villager 7. @Emerald Falcon - Luciel (sheriff) 8. @Fuchsia Ostrich - Koros (Secret Agent) 9. @Indigo Weasel 10. @Ivory Dragonfly - (Manic Ghostblood) 11. @Magenta Albatross -VarLeel 12. @Mauve Crocodile - (Obli-gator) Spiked Tineye 13. @Melon Dingo - Reverse (Glassblower, not psychologist) Village Smoker 14. @Mint Heron- Reneau (Former Obligator in denial) Village Smoker 15. @Onyx Flamingo - Agolac (Forgetful) Spiked Lurcher 16. @Opal Lion - Guy (Internet Speak) Spiked Thug 17. @Sunburst Toucan - Avil Ejir 18. @Pearl Chameleon - WitLees (Kandra barkeep) 19. @Plum Rhinoceros Village Tineye 20. @Saffron Iguana - Taltin Keriell (Undercover nobleman spy) Village Rioter 21. @Sage Kangaroo - (High Imperial) Village Lurcher 22. @Salmon Meerkat - Aurelien (Awake) Village Mistborn 23. @Sapphire Elephant - Ciril Yuanivori (Sleeptalking oversleeper) Edited January 14, 2023 by Devotary of Spontaneity 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azure Mouse Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 And a third stone is moved to the faraway place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 [OOC: Oops. Definitely meant to get on before the end of the cycle. The last couple days have been hectic. I am glad that Lion turned out to be an elim. However, I am unsure where to go from here. I also feel kind of bad for the elims.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 That helps quite a bit, now it should be easier to see when the elims decided to bus Crocodile and Flamingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 *Scop the orphan crawls out from the cesspit where he has been sleeping for the past several hours* I just learned how to spell! Also it’s my b-birthday! So *hiccup* I vote we start with a P-A-R-T-Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 Is the entry on Albatross a genuine slip from Croc? I’d like opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Coral Swan said: Is the entry on Albatross a genuine slip from Croc? I’d like opinions. Albatross's D1 reads which Croc was refering to or this post. I feel like that could possibly be a genuine slip. Something I'd look into more for certain. Spoiler Mauve is still a villager, especially with the newest post and trying to encourage me to get into the game. Lean V on Falcon for now, simply for effort. I don't encourage this but the way he's making his reads, well, readable, is good for the village and there's no use killing that before anything else. Dingo's shade on Falcon for that post is strange, but the conclusion is good with saying it's not worth voting over others. On 12/29/2022 at 3:40 PM, Mauve Crocodile said: @Magenta Albatross pretend you're on the evil team. Would you make PMs with everyone if one of your teammates was already doing it? Now see, I'm not the person to try and make PMs with everyone in the first place. would I be someone to mass PM people if I had a teammate with the same tendencies though? Yeah, I would. There's a lot of manipulation that can happen behind the scenes, and depending on size of game/elim team it can be hard to coordinate enough with just one person. Not only that, but the different styles people would have to communicate, the different methods of gaining info, the different way of talking to people will appeal to different people. Someone who might not want to listen to me or open up to me might have a different reaction to a teammate. So the short answer is no. But the long answer is that it depends on the person and regardless of the reason for doing so, there /is/ a strategic advantage from attacking from more than one side. And I think the elim team has to have a second lurcher because the e!Mistborn would have had to roll Iron twice now. Once with Flamingo and a second time with Lion. So I'm thinking a more likely lurcher and a possible mistborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magenta Albatross Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 [OOC: I’m confused what exactly is being said about me. Is that quote from Chameleon something Croc said or something Albatross 1.0 said? And what exactly did Croc say about me?] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 [OOC: Hey, my internet's been out for a bit. Still is, actually, I'm doing this from my phone. I probably won't be able to muster up the willpower to do heavy analysis on mobile, so I just wanted to say that I think the Albatross thing was bait. The only one poking at Albatross for reads was Crocodile, not exactly "the elim team".] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Magenta Albatross said: [OOC: I’m confused what exactly is being said about me. Is that quote from Chameleon something Croc said or something Albatross 1.0 said? And what exactly did Croc say about me?] Croc said this about Albatross 1.0. This was in a reads post where everyone was sused to some degree. Croc Quote -- Magenta Albatross: Made a nonsense post and wasn’t going to contribute more until they were pinged, which caused them to overcompensate by dumping a bunch of reads. Even if they had that post in the works already, why did they make the initial ‘eep eep’ post? The reads dump was also prompted by the elim team yelling at them to say something meaningful to establish a presence. New Albatross, I recognize that this is hard to respond to, so feel free to just say if you agree with the reads they dropped. And what I had quoted was the reads post in question that croc was referencing. Which was by Albatross 1.0 and also a response to Croc and if Albatross would send out PMs to everyone. The way it is worded makes me think it could be a slip. The post by Croc, whether it's about Croc being evil or Albatross, I can't quite tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 (edited) 14 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said: That helps quite a bit, now it should be easier to see when the elims decided to bus Crocodile and Flamingo. I believe they chose to bus Flamingo right out of the gates on D4, with Croc being the first Flamingo voter. I don't believe they likely planned to bus Flamingo on D3, since Lion is the one who got voted D3. I think they decided to bus Flamingo D4 only after it became apparent that the coinshot had attacked a second time and wouldn't let things go. I would assess that they wanted Crocodile to look good in the aftermath of the bussing, and did not expect a scan on Croc to get revealed and derail everything. Edit: If they did want to bus Flamingo on D3, that would honestly be very ironic. It means the spiked were trying to bus Flamingo for three cycles straight, but the village kept on voting up spiked other than Flamingo instead :P. I do not place a very high credence in this version of events though. 25 minutes ago, Pearl Chameleon said: The way it is worded makes me think it could be a slip. The post by Croc, whether it's about Croc being evil or Albatross, I can't quite tell. This is a good catch! Unfortunately, I also can't tell if it means Croc is evil (which we already knew of course) or that Albatross is Edited January 14, 2023 by Charcoal Hyena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 14, 2023 Report Share Posted January 14, 2023 (edited) ok fine somebody asked me to skim d1 so here you go lotsa RP, shame we aren't doing that as much anymore altho thats how it goes later in a game I like Hyena v1 although that's neither here nor there Dingo hurts my eyes for the most part Mouse and Croc ties feel inconclusive on the one hand yes I could absolutely see this interaction occurring between 2 spiked on the other hand yes I could absolutely see this interaction occurring between 1 spiked and 1 villager stylistically Falcon's D1 is interesting and I like that they have a summary of actual conclusions so early but probably honestly NAI at this point, most players who make a habit of doing analysis do it whether good or evil, still the volume of analysis based on so little would be harder for a spiked to come up with imo so maybe super very slight village one of the only posts that sticks out to me as interesting for reasons other than good RP is this one: Crocodile actually votes Mouse for unclear reasons in a way that feels somewhat distance-y but your mileage may vary Crocodile argues Koros [Ostrich], Aylia [Hyena] and WitLees [Chameleon] are all 3 more likely village based on past games meta and PM shenanigans, I know at least 1 of them is village but not about the other 2 continues to argue even more loudly for this point in this post Toucan seemingly votes for Scorp on accident when they meant to vote for Iguana, which ??? probs NAI Alb just kinda Albing Alb is then stating Croc is village, and also disagrees with most of what Croc said (here), bit weird vibes because it just feels fundamentally too early to flag some1 as village. Then again Tuatara did it and they flipped green. Honestly the fact that Alb does this after a confirmed village did it makes it somehow worse :P. Croc retracting off Mouse and randomly switching onto Kangaroo with less reasoning than their previous 2 votes, in the last hour of the cycle (here), is definitively a bad look for Mouse, no two ways about it Dragonfly also voted in a way that would save Mouse in the last hour tho (here) so either the spiked are very incautious of steering things (in which case, why didn't they steer the later cycles more tbh) or Dragonfly is village or Mouse is village takeaways: mouse slightly more sus in my mind than b4 dragonfly and mouse not super duper likely E/E honestly, my reads mostly aren't changed much overall, but I read d1 hope ur happy also sorry 4 double post Edited January 14, 2023 by Charcoal Hyena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coral Swan Posted January 15, 2023 Report Share Posted January 15, 2023 21 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said: [OOC: Oops. Definitely meant to get on before the end of the cycle. The last couple days have been hectic. I am glad that Lion turned out to be an elim. However, I am unsure where to go from here. I also feel kind of bad for the elims.] I have limited sympathy for them if they keep choosing to delay the Coinshot kills. I have also spent today rereading the thread. In retrospect, I would like to kill Scorpion, mark Mouse down as being very suspicious with the sheer quantity of connections to Croc, commit to looking into Albatross and Dragonfly, and note some likely unfounded paranoia on Elephant and Toucan and Penguin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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