Charcoal Hyena Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Sapphire Elephant said: I do stand on the "would probably prefer to have Flam flip so the matter is resolve Yeah, that's understandable. I still feel like they're a villager, though This cycle, either the spiked are sitting back and letting their lurches waste even more village time and resources on an ML, or they're trying to milk as much as they possibly can out of a spiked inevitably dying after catching the ire of a coinshot. I think there is broad agreement that it's one of those two possibilities, and that we can't be entirely sure which. And this cycle feels a little bit too passive and straightforward (at least right now) for it to be the second one, in my opinion. I want to vote for somebody else on pure gut but I'm also not sure how much good that'll do when it's D5. I'll probably be able to do the village more good by spending my efforts on catching up on the game more, so that I'll eventually have actually well-reasoned suspicions of my own to share. I feel like I'm making good progress in that direction. Edited January 9, 2023 by Charcoal Hyena clarity
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) one bit of context youre missing, hyena, is that when flamingo initially survived the first kill, they were extremely cagey about revealing their role for poor reasoning; they only claimed thug after their "mysterious" second survival, insisting that someone else protected them for unknown reasons the amount of suspension of disbelief required to believe the elims would protect a villager twice in a row to waste our time is just... no. i have even suspected flamingo is a villager but that does not change the fact they need to die, we cannot risk letting an elim get away with this. someone compared flamingo to aman and that is apt. the potential damage e!flamingo can cause long term is not worth it, especially when it makes the most sense for flamingo to be an e!mistborn. ed1t: tldr if flamingo is village then they die and we move on, no real damage done, but if flamingo is elim than we take another big step toward victory; its a win win ed2t: like, the elim goal is for villagers to die, why on earth would they not let a villager die for 2 whole cycles? to protect one of their own who is also suspected? i dont buy it because the only other major suspect after flamingo was lion who also survived the execution due to being a thug v!flamingo just doesn't add up, no matter how genuine they occasionally sound ed3t: to clarify the initial refusal to claim what does v!thug!flamingo have to gain by leaving their thugness up for question? not claiming thug immediately leaves the idea open of them being a village lurcher or village mistborn. what does this accomplish? it makes the village reluctant to kill flamingo and incentivizes the elims to want flamingo dead so we lose one of our power roles. in other words, it protects from the village and paints a target on their back for the elims yet despite that, the elims protect flamingo, a potential village lurcher or village mistborn?? how does that work? why not let the coinshot eat one of our own power roles? it was only after their first lurcher protection that flamingo revealed they are a thug. it doesnt make sense the optimal play for any village thug, lurcher, or mistborn who initially survived a kill on their own is to just immediately hard-claim thug. it keeps the elims off their back and gives them time to convince the village they are innocent, but this did not happen meanwhile, the optimal play for any elim survivor is to keep the reason ambiguous for as long as possible, which is exactly what happened, so... i am hard-pressed to believe flamingo is not the e!mistborn at this point Edited January 9, 2023 by Plum Rhinoceros
Magenta Albatross Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 37 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: to clarify the initial refusal to claim what does v!thug!flamingo have to gain by leaving their thugness up for question? not claiming thug immediately leaves the idea open of them being a village lurcher or village mistborn. what does this accomplish? it makes the village reluctant to kill flamingo and incentivizes the elims to want flamingo dead so we lose one of our power roles. in other words, it protects from the village and paints a target on their back for the elims yet despite that, the elims protect flamingo, a potential village lurcher or village mistborn?? how does that work? why not let the coinshot eat one of our own power roles? it was only after their first lurcher protection that flamingo revealed they are a thug. it doesnt make sense the optimal play for any village thug, lurcher, or mistborn who initially survived a kill on their own is to just immediately hard-claim thug. it keeps the elims off their back and gives them time to convince the village they are innocent, but this did not happen meanwhile, the optimal play for any elim survivor is to keep the reason ambiguous for as long as possible, which is exactly what happened, so... i am hard-pressed to believe flamingo is not the e!mistborn at this point [OOC: I’ll actually disagree with this line of reasoning specifically. If you’ve survived an elim kill as a villager, you shouldn’t claim right away. Unless the spiked have a seeker, they don’t know how you’ve survived. Telling them your role when there’s a Coinshot around actively hurts the Coinshot (assuming they’re village, which seems likely to me) because it means that’s one less player the elims have to decide if they’re the Coinshot or not. Because you can guarantee the elims are trying to figure out who that is right now. As to why they would bother potentially keeping Flamingo alive forever: if there’s a Coinshot out there that you, as an elim, are afraid of, you kind of have two options to deal with them. You either find and kill them. Or you pocket them and direct their kills. These are both very difficult to deal with. So why not make a third option? Create/direct the village towards a very polarizing target who everyone wants dead, but keep them alive. Essentially, create a practice dummy for the Coinshot to waste their kills on. Maybe this is super crackpot and I’m seeing shadows where there are none. But I’m just so paranoid about this. It probably is for the best to take the bait and exe Flamingo though. But I don’t think we should assume they’re elim until we have them truly dead.]
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) big difference between surviving a spiked kill obviously (village unless WGG), this is within the context of vigilante kills (can be friendly fire or an accurate hit) ed1t: the point is, we know the elims protected flamingo BEFORE they claimed thug, when they were mostly implying to be mistborn, which the elims should want dead in case of them rolling bronze that is a magnificently sized stretch from my pov, occam's razor suggests the elims saved flamingo because flamingo is one of them ed2t: i suppose i can see your "keep coinshot busy theory" but again, we cannot know for certain until flamingo is dead and it's too risky to let e!flamingo live Edited January 9, 2023 by Plum Rhinoceros
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 Was analyzing Croc for their reads and votes. Not much in the way of village reads. Thoughts will be in this lovely violet/lilac. Anything of Crocs of import I will bold. Nearly lost this post >> Croc Village reads/Defense Spoiler The only thing that I can even possibly find in the way of village reads is that they very lightly village read me for not following through with PMs. Spoiler Ditto, which I find slightly villager indicative. If it was a conscious plan, they would have followed through on it. Elim reads/Defense Spoiler They've had suspicion on Mouse, Swan, Weasel, Flamingo, Lion, Kangaroo, and Heron. Plus the post where they suspect everyone. Mouse: It was that they were deflecting suspicions. Never really resurfaced since D2, but stopped since. Though I think it was because of the polarizing options D3 and D4. Swan: It was that he was overconfident that he should be village trusted and convinced that we were convinced that he was village. Weasel: It was all this post and it never really resurfaced. Polarizing trains again I think confusing this a bit. Could just be them being a spiked and dropping reasoning because they forgot about it or just left it. Goes for antoher possibility about Mouse dropping as well. Spoiler You let Cham off really easily. And then abandoned the results of your data collection, which sunk cost fallacy would usually prevent. You then said Lion would be a good info flip, which is weak reasoning. These insights are courtesy of The Lord Ruler and his infinite wisdom Lion: They'd have rather voted Lion over Flamingo. Use up the extra life over killing elim power role? Was only a Lion vs. Flamingo at the time. I was not yet a main train at the time. Flamingo: First person to jump on Flamingo Spoiler The Lord Ruler taught me to suspect animosity more than I expect kindness. So, I’ve created this reads list where I argue why everyone is evil. It’s ordered from most to least likely to be Spiked though. It also only covers D1 posts because it was made over several sittings, and I didn’t want to keep having to update it to reflect new content. I invite everyone to refute my arguments as best as they can. Start of the highest suspicions here --Azure Mouse: Deflected my question about what was consuming their focus in the early stages of the game by suggesting they could have been parsing the roleplay, but when asked to provide receipts, they had little to show for it. Implied RL made them busy, but has yet to explain why they implied they had in-game things to organize. -- Mint Heron: To introduce their Iguana vote, they used similar (copied!) reasoning to my push against Mouse but declined to vote with me on Mouse. They proactively undermine the quality of their vote to excuse its alleged weakness. -- Sapphire Elephant: Felt self-conscious pressure to explain exactly how they randomly chose their initial poke target. Deflected poke votes by stating their alleged policy to not interact with them. Took the time to figure out who hadn’t posted yet, which feels more like the by-product of elim activity than work a villager would set out to do. Regularly drops unprompted role advice to manipulate the masses. --Indigo Weasel: Invites PMs to build their trust network, then declares PMing to be NAI to avoid scrutiny of their own behavior. Votes on Dingo for an arbitrary reason and emphasizes that it isn’t grounded in suspicion in order to justify its stickiness. --Onyx Flamingo: Pokes the soft target of inactive Penguin, then backtracks without actually removing their vote. By undermining themselves, they reveal that their vote lacks intention. -- Magenta Albatross: Made a nonsense post and wasn’t going to contribute more until they were pinged, which caused them to overcompensate by dumping a bunch of reads. Even if they had that post in the works already, why did they make the initial ‘eep eep’ post? The reads dump was also prompted by the elim team yelling at them to say something meaningful to establish a presence. New Albatross, I recognize that this is hard to respond to, so feel free to just say if you agree with the reads they dropped. -- Fuchsia Ostrich: Publicly announced they would PM everyone, which seeks to normalize their intentional spidering. Has used our PM exclusively for roleplay, which reveals a lack of game solving intention. Start of weaker elim reads -- Sunburst Toucan: Weirdly announced that they’d been receiving PMs. Too easily persuaded to change from voting Scorpion to Iguana and didn’t add much to justify that vote. --Amethyst Scorpion: Two hours after Elephant pinged the inactives, Scorpion appeared and cast a sticky, naked vote on Penguin, which responds to the pressure in an intentionally unengaging way, since Penguin was a fellow inactive. Reactive + hypocritical = evil. -- Pearl Chameleon: Publicly announced they would PM everyone, which seeks to normalize their intentional spidering. Didn’t follow through, which reveals that they were drunk on both horneater white and the ambition of receiving the elim alignment. Maintained a sticky, unjustified poke vote. --Coral Swan: Cast a naked, sticky poke vote and called it a Day. -- Plum Rhinoceros: Filter dodging. Reasoning becomes thinner here --Opal Lion: Has yet to contribute analysis. --Chartreuse Penguin: Has yet to contribute analysis. --Cream Tuatara: Expresses inclination to vote for its own sake. Discounts potential village reads from mass PMer pool, which avoids narrowing the mix pool. -- Salmon Meerkat: Parks vote on a side train. Concedes control of the voting to the Americans instead of pushing consolidation. -- Charcoal Hyena: Votes Cham for confidently village reading me, when I am clearly a villager. Tried to poison the pool of people who sent everyone PMs by focussing on the possibility of there being elims among them instead of their likelihood of being village. Votes Kangaroo for crusading reasons. --Ivory Dragonfly: Casts a late vote without much justification, sidestepping the whole consensus through discussion process the game is based on. -- Emerald Falcon: agues that multiple elim PM spiders is unlikely because they might be prone to slip ups because they forget the source of their intel. That’s one of the weaker reasons for that, but one a current elim would be thinking about. Some things of import. - In their highest elim reads, most are ignored. Except Flamingo. - Weaker reasoning reads are mostly ignored except Swan - Lion goes from nothing to highest, tied with Flamingo and infact deemed better to go after or bus than Flamingo. Though there was nothing for them to go off of Lion the first day. - Does not like public voting for coinshot to shoot much. Voting suspicions Spoiler D1: Starts poke flurry on Tuatara(1). Switches to Rhino(2). Then goes to Mouse(3). Finally stabalizes on Kangaroo(4) D2: Unvotes Mouse who they never voted and votes Heron(1) D3: Goes Swan(1). Switches to Weasel(2). Then finalizes on Lion(3). D4: Goes Flamingo first(1)
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 i do think croc, flamingo, and lion all work on a team, specifically with lion being a thug putting in all the kill orders and flamingo being a mistborn they're desperate to keep alive, this of course means there's an unknown elim lurcher among us as well, but we already know that it also makes sense for why the lurcher would protect flamingo over lion, given a thug is more expendable than a mistborn
Indigo Weasel Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 Meanwhile I've been busy trying to figure out if Coral Swan is a WGG, and if the elims are just trying to play an information denial game instead of anything else
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Indigo Weasel said: Meanwhile I've been busy trying to figure out if Coral Swan is a WGG, and if the elims are just trying to play an information denial game instead of anything else given flamingo was also protected last night, that would require two elim lurchers to protect both (or mistborn rolled iron again) and swan to submit the kill on themselves thing is i know the lurcher who saved swan so if that is the case im not too worried, several others know their identity as well
Indigo Weasel Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: given flamingo was also protected last night, that would require two elim lurchers to protect both (or mistborn rolled iron again) and swan to submit the kill on themselves thing is i know the lurcher who saved swan so if that is the case im not too worried, several others know their identity as well Oh you do? Well in that case that makes me happy that my paranoid thoughts are just that Paranoid (Not that I'm displeased about that. Being overly paranoid about everything is a defense mechanism developed after certain betrayals) Legitimately though I spent like half an hour yesterday outlining various ways that Coral Swan could be a WGGa although you're also assuming a 4 man team, I'm still of the opinion it could be a 5 man team. Though... maybe it is just 4 people if Swan flips elim. Edited January 9, 2023 by Indigo Weasel
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said: Oh you do? Well in that case that makes me happy that my paranoid thoughts are just that Paranoid (Not that I'm displeased about that. Being overly paranoid about everything is a defense mechanism developed after certain betrayals) Legitimately though I spent like half an hour yesterday outlining various ways that Coral Swan could be a WGGa although you're also assuming a 4 man team, I'm still of the opinion it could be a 5 man team. Though... maybe it is just 4 people if Swan flips elim. yeah my elim team theory atm is as follows: tineye crocodile mistborn flamingo thug lion unknown lurcher the main reason I feel flamingo and lion are paired, as well as lion and croc are paired, are as follows: Quote Curious as to why you'd vote me, I'm just a Thug, but Flamingo is either an extremely lucky Mistborn or an elim. Or an extremely lucky elim Mistborn. And if Flamingo is indeed an elim (implying elims having a Thug and a Lurcher), then it would require a crazy distro for me to be an elim. lion attempted to pre-clear themselves before flamingo's flip d4, which feels like elim tmi, using their knowledge of this kayana elim distro as a reason to clear themselves after the flamingo flip we also know that croc was the tineye who posted the WoBs about animals and allomancy, given he claimed them to meerkas around d3 + those tineye messages stopped after he died, so croc never submitted a kill, and the e!lurcher obviously hasn't submitted any kills either furthermore, croc pm'd me after i voted lion on d4 to ask me why i was voting lion; i believe he thought lion had got red checked by the seeker and was trying to fish for that information, otherwise he'd just ask me why in thread. it doesn't make a lot of sense for e!croc to privately inquire why I'm voting v!lion the proposed distro above also makes sense in a v!Coinshot and v!Mistborn world + multiple protects can be balanced with a smaller team plus there's this: meerkas was the only player who knew about the "I'm the elim tineye" reaction test ahead of time, and of all the responses, lion and croc were the only ones that were anomolous. lion specifically positing that a village tineye posted it (which is true, but that's what an elim with tmi would immediately jump to) while croc began espousing theories in pms about the elims having two tineyes, which is part of why we decided to have the seeker scan croc in the first place meerkas did a very similar reaction test in ag8 by sending a tineye message that said he was scanned red, and nearly every elim had an anomolous response in the same way as what we've seen here (because they knew it was a lie) so yeah, this is where my head is ed1t: also possible flamingo is one of two e!lurchers, and thus is valued more than e!thug!lion also possible there is a fifth elim, but i don't believe that invalidates this evidence Edited January 9, 2023 by Plum Rhinoceros
Indigo Weasel Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: yeah my elim team theory atm is as follows: tineye crocodile mistborn flamingo thug lion unknown lurcher the main reason I feel flamingo and lion are paired, as well as lion and croc are paired, are as follows: lion attempted to pre-clear themselves before flamingo's flip d4, which feels like elim tmi, using their knowledge of this kayana elim distro as a reason to clear themselves after the flamingo flip we also know that croc was the tineye who posted the WoBs about animals and allomancy, given he claimed them to meerkas around d3 + those tineye messages stopped after he died, so croc never submitted a kill, and the e!lurcher obviously hasn't submitted any kills either furthermore, croc pm'd me after i voted lion on d4 to ask me why i was voting lion; i believe he thought lion had got red checked by the seeker and was trying to fish for that information, otherwise he'd just ask me why in thread. it doesn't make a lot of sense for e!croc to privately inquire why I'm voting v!lion the proposed distro above also makes sense in a v!Coinshot and v!Mistborn world, multiple protects allows for a smaller team plus there's this: meerkas was the only player who knew about the "I'm the elim tineye" reaction test ahead of time, and of all the responses, lion and croc were the only ones that were anomolous. lion specifically positing that a village tineye posted it (which is true, but that's what an elim with tmi would immediately jump to) while croc began espousing theories in pms about the elims having two tineyes, which is part of why we decided to have the seeker scan croc in the first place meerkas did a very similar reaction test in ag8 by sending a tineye message that said he was scanned red, and nearly every elim had an anomolous response in the same way as what we've seen here (because they knew it was a lie) so yeah, this is where my head is Sheesh I would not have suspected so much was going on behind Plum Rhino earlier Nice job Can't help but be impressed at the work you've been putting in.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, Indigo Weasel said: Sheesh I would not have suspected so much was going on behind Plum Rhino earlier Nice job Can't help but be impressed at the work you've been putting in. that was kinda the point didn't want to get fear killed too early, but after meerkas died i lost my outlet and needed to step it up
Indigo Weasel Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, Plum Rhinoceros said: that was kinda the point didn't want to get fear killed too early, but after meerkas died i lost my outlet and needed to step it up I always seem to go the route of surviving by just being a somewhat decent option for the elims to sus, just due to how I play.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 Just now, Indigo Weasel said: I always seem to go the route of surviving by just being a somewhat decent option for the elims to sus, just due to how I play. yeah that's a valid strat, i was also hoping that elims would not kill me and instead vote me for being overtly chaotic unfortunately pretty much everyone found me suspicious, so its hard to differentiate between the two i think at this point both flamingo and lion are essential flips, whether or not my theory is right, because it's too risky to let either live and we ultimately lose nothing in trying im happy for us to attempt figuring out the e!lurcher's identity with the rest of this turn. would be easier with more red and green flips, but exploring other suspicions is better than just twiddling our thumbs and waiting
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said: I always seem to go the route of surviving by just being a somewhat decent option for the elims to sus, just due to how I play. That's how I roll. 1 hour ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: yeah my elim team theory atm is as follows: tineye crocodile mistborn flamingo thug lion unknown lurcher the main reason I feel flamingo and lion are paired, as well as lion and croc are paired, are as follows: Glad to find that my suspicions weren't just unlikely, they quite likely. Could possibly look at Hyena at a later day, seems strange that they're defending Flamingo and it's tickling at my gut.
Indigo Weasel Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 Well now I'm feeling much better about the current state of this game. I was a bit frustrated by the total lack of information from deaths, but now it seems like if we find the elim lurcher, this puzzle will get solved pretty quickly. I think I'll tackle some analysis here in a bit to see if I can pick it apart a bit. If we run with the theory posited by Rhino, maybe there's something there to be discovered.
Chartreuse Penguin Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 I have a new theory Secretly, Flamingo is the Lord Ruler and cannot be night killed by any means.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) Quote Amethyst Scorpion Azure Mouse Charcoal Hyena Chartreuse Penguin Coral Swan Emerald Falcon Fuchsia Ostrich Indigo Weasel Ivory Dragonfly Magenta Albatross Onyx Flamingo Opal Lion Sunburst Toucan Pearl Chameleon Plum Rhinoceros Sapphire Elephant worst case scenario, we're 8 Villagers to 4 Elims, though I'm personally more inclined to believe in a smaller elim team due to multiple Flamingo survivals (9 Villagers to 3 Elims) in the unlikely chance that Flamingo does flip V, we go into N5 as 7 Villagers to 4 Elims or 8 Villagers to 3 Elims, and we can spend the entire night immediately re-evaluating for the next day. assuming Spiked attack Swan again (or another villager) and the Coinshot attacks someone who's not Flamingo (hopefully someone without protection), we'd then go into D6 with either 5/6v to 4/3e or 6/7v to 3/2e. in the worst-case scenario, that means we need to vote correctly D6 or the coinshot needs to shoot correct N6 to stop us from getting outnumbered by the Spiked. we're definitely cutting things close, but I do think getting croc when we did was a huge boon for us but yeah, im not too worried either ed1t: lmao scratch all that, my math was VERY off we're either 12 Villagers to 4 Elims rn or 13 Villagers to 3 Elims... yeah we got plenty of time, we're chilling ed2t: 4 minutes ago, Chartreuse Penguin said: I have a new theory Secretly, Flamingo is the Lord Ruler and cannot be night killed by any means. a fun theory alas... Quote General Rules: 48-hour days, 24-hour nights. Vote minimum is 1. Ties are decided randomly. Final votes will reflect the number changed by manipulation, but not the names. Unsuccessful attacks will be announced as “____ was attacked, but didn’t die!” with no differentiation between Thug and Lurcher protection. Spiked vs. Coinshot attacks will be differentiated in the write-up, including if the attack is unsuccessful. Group PMs are allowed. Spiked are not guaranteed a role. There are no secrets. There is an inactivity filter of two cycles. You must post in the thread, or be replaced/removed. One action per turn (two allowed per cycle). Edited January 9, 2023 by Plum Rhinoceros
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 As Aylia spoke, Avil felt a sudden pang of estrangement exuding off her. It was almost as if her soul had been swapped for another. But curiously enough, she had been arguing in favor of Agloac [Flamingo], who seemed to be edging closer towards devilish immortality by the day. VarLeel [Albatross] seemed to be of similar mind. What bothered Avil more than their dissent with regards to the case of Agolac was the fact that they did not seem to be offering any alternatives either. Were they waiting for someone else to step in with ideas? [OOC: Put yourselves in the elim team's shoes and ask yourselves if you would waste this many night actions preventing a village flip. A village flip, which fundamentally gets the eliminators closer to their win condition every time. A WBG can be played, but not to this extent, because actions economy is real and the elim team cannot assume that at any given night, a village Mistborn will not roll steel and attack an eliminator, even if the coinshot is busy with V!Flamingo. They are better off using their resources on their own, hence E!Flamingo. However, I am curious as to why @Magenta Albatross and Hyena are not putting forward other reads or suspicions if they truly believe we are wasting time with Flamingo. I understand that Hyena has just subbed in but who do you think the eliminators are, Albatross?] Avil grabbed his notebook and made a quick note, before he'd forget: Spoiler Flamingo Lion Penguin Scorpion Albatross Falcon Hyena Chameleon Dragonfly Rhino Ostrich Weasel Elephant Mouse Swan
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said: Flamingo Lion Penguin Scorpion Albatross Falcon Hyena Chameleon Dragonfly Rhino Ostrich Weasel Elephant Mouse Swan ed1t: @Sunburst Toucan, i'm assuming your negative reads are on top and positive reads are on the bottom; can you tell me a little about your views on Dragonfly? what puts them lower (higher?) than Falcon? Edited January 9, 2023 by Plum Rhinoceros
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 I have *burp* already l-listed m-my reasons for w-wishing to eliminate the b-bird so unless someone has a better idea sorry birdy. im also I-just r-really hungry and hankering fried flamingo drumsticks in meanwhile flamingo will you p-play w-with me? One last game of bouncy b-ball (before your death)
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: ed1t: @Sunburst Toucan, i'm assuming your negative reads are on top and positive reads are on the bottom; can you tell me a little about your views on Dragonfly? what puts them lower (higher?) than Falcon? [OOC: I want to give Dragonfly village points for their D1 vote. I see Meerkat's argument, but I suspect an eliminator to handle that with more grace. They are, however, a suspect still, because the aforementioned point is weak as it is mainly intuition-based, and my vote analysis from earlier placed them in several PoEs. As an aside, I suspect they might be attempting to pocket me. For Falcon, some of it is lingering suspicion off them being the D2 counter wagon, and some of it is them subtly defending Flamingo D2. However, I do recall them voting Flamingo D3. I still need to give that cycle a thorough look as I have yet to do that, but the placement of said vote including timing and state of counter wagons will likely influence this read. I suppose I can quickly examine that one vote. Flamingo (4): Swan, Scorpion, Mouse, Falcon Chameleon(2): Toucan, Rhino Dragonfly(2): Chameleon, Hyena Lion(2): Crocodile, Meerkat Swan(1): Flamingo Looking at the state of the votes here, Falcon’s vote occurred when Chameleon, Dragonfly and Lion were all viable options. So unless every player there is an eliminator with Falcon, Falcon’s vote actually looks quite good. My initial impression was that they might have decided to bus Flamingo but examining this now, I think that the other wagons were all feasible outs and the sentiments had not been solidified. So perhaps Falcon moves down, and I will also note that Elephant should belong in the second tier, or possibly in a new tier between the second and third.]
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sunburst Toucan said: [OOC: I want to give Dragonfly village points for their D1 vote. I see Meerkat's argument, but I suspect an eliminator to handle that with more grace. They are, however, a suspect still, because the aforementioned point is weak as it is mainly intuition-based, and my vote analysis from earlier placed them in several PoEs. As an aside, I suspect they might be attempting to pocket me. For Falcon, some of it is lingering suspicion off them being the D2 counter wagon, and some of it is them subtly defending Flamingo D2. However, I do recall them voting Flamingo D3. I still need to give that cycle a thorough look as I have yet to do that, but the placement of said vote including timing and state of counter wagons will likely influence this read. I suppose I can quickly examine that one vote. Flamingo (4): Swan, Scorpion, Mouse, Falcon Chameleon(2): Toucan, Rhino Dragonfly(2): Chameleon, Hyena Lion(2): Crocodile, Meerkat Swan(1): Flamingo Looking at the state of the votes here, Falcon’s vote occurred when Chameleon, Dragonfly and Lion were all viable options. So unless every player there is an eliminator with Falcon, Falcon’s vote actually looks quite good. My initial impression was that they might have decided to bus Flamingo but examining this now, I think that the other wagons were all feasible outs and the sentiments had not been solidified. So perhaps Falcon moves down, and I will also note that Elephant should belong in the second tier, or possibly in a new tier between the second and third.] thank you for your insight, this helps me solidify my village read of you o7
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) One thing that's interesting: 9:25 PM, Mouse reveals Croc was scanned elim and votes Croc 9:58 PM, Swan votes Croc 10:34 PM, Penguin votes Croc 12:30 AM, Elephant votes Croc 2:20 AM, Scorpion votes Croc 3:07 AM, Rhino votes Croc 8:38 AM, Falcon votes Croc 8:47 AM, Toucan votes Croc 12:05 PM, Chameleon votes Croc 3:49 PM, Lion votes Croc 4:01 PM, Croc finally posts, insisting on his innocence 4:22 PM, Dragonfly votes Croc after a readslist (where they have rhino lower than croc?) 5:15 PM, Weasel votes Croc 5:45 PM, Hyena votes Croc 7:12 PM, Ostrich votes Croc 8:57 PM, Albatross votes Croc Note also that Flamingo never voted Croc. Do any of these posts stand out to anyone else? We can likely figure out when the elims decided to bus from this data. ED1T: Unfortunately, when D4 gets fused with the main thread, those links will all break. I may need to fix them later ED2T: From my PoV, Scorpion could be a very early busser, though I would have expected Lion to join with him instead of "forgetting" until much later if they were teamed (assuming e!Lion). Falcon could be the next earliest busser, given they asked Mouse why the seeker chose Croc over Flamingo or Lion, but I think I read that as coming from a villager-solving mentality versus an elim info fishing mentality. I personally feel like how close Lion and Croc's posts were indicates that's when Croc gave his teammates the go-ahead to bus him. That's my take, at least, so I think Dragonfly might be my next major suspicion. ED3T: Granted, a lot of my view on this is probably conf bias from prior suspicions, so take all this with a grain of salt until there's more evidence Edited January 9, 2023 by Plum Rhinoceros
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 7 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: one bit of context youre missing, hyena, is that when flamingo initially survived the first kill, they were extremely cagey about revealing their role for poor reasoning; they only claimed thug after their "mysterious" second survival, insisting that someone else protected them for unknown reasons Yeah, I was missing that context. I admit that's at least a little weird. 7 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: the amount of suspension of disbelief required to believe the elims would protect a villager twice in a row to waste our time is just... no. Why is that so hard to believe though? Why wouldn't the spiked waste everyone's time by doing this? It gains them much, and costs next to nothing, assuming they have the relevant abilities to do it (which at this point we know nearly for certain that they do have the relevant abilities, in some way, shape, or form). Is it really that tinfoily to see a world where a villager survives a coinshot kill and the spiked elect to keep that person alive for longer so that we get to the situation we're in right now? Even assuming the spiked are cowards who are totally absorbed with self-preservation and don't care about doing damage to the village, self-preservation is a coin with two sides. There's self-preservation from coinshots, but there's also self-preservation from the lynch. If they were more worried about the lynch than the coinshot, than making a bid to force us to lynch Flamingo this cycle is quite a solid defense against that. 7 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: the potential damage e!flamingo can cause long term is not worth it, especially when it makes the most sense for flamingo to be an e!mistborn. Specifically what would this damage consist of though? I'm not proposing that we clear Flamingo, just that we lynch somebody else. Because I don't think the case against them is actually very strong. And despite everyone saying they would have a difficult time proceeding without a Flamingo flip, I don't actually see how a Flamingo flip is very helpful, informationally speaking. Yes, we've been repeatedly denied a Flamingo flip, but do we actually want one in the first place? Especially on the heels of an uninformative vote last cycle? 8 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: tldr if flamingo is village then they die and we move on, no real damage done, but if flamingo is elim than we take another big step toward victory; its a win win Isn't that the same wager you make with every lynch ever though? I'm pretty sure at this point that nothing I can do will turn aside a Flamingo lynch mob, but I'm not going to change my mind just because of that If this were a situation where Flamingo is a spiked trying to survive as long as possible and do as much damage on the way out, why did they just roll over and barely post anything this cycle? Why aren't they setting up some kind of mess for after they flip red, or defending themselves, or trolling their heart out in one of the most troll-worthy situations imaginable? The behavior of Flamingo doesn't align with the headspace that the spiked would likely have to be in right now, if Flamingo were spiked and they were trying to make the most of it. 43 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: We can likely figure out when the elims decided to bus from this data. Can we though? Crocodile was pretty much already sentenced to death once Mouse announced that they had been scanned as spiked. The other spiked might as well jump on the bandwagon ASAP, right?
Recommended Posts