Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said: GOOD LORD GOD ALMIGHTY this is what hell is like Flamingo gotta be an extremely lucky e!Mistborn, right??
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: gotta be an extremely lucky e!Mistborn, right?? Worse, it's more likely I think that there are two Spiked Lurchers...
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said: Worse, it's more likely I think that there are two Spiked Lurchers... if that's the case we need to solely rely on votes at this point and ugh 48 hours is too long for this nonsense, can we end the turn early with a majority vote plz? ='[
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 [OOC: I don't really have time to be doing thoughts but KRIIIIIIIIIIFF AAAAAACK WHAT IS THIS MADNESS and also it's possible Flamingo was Lurched the first time, lost their Thug life the second time, and was Lurched again. Or they just have a Lurcher and a Mistborn. Or, dreaded be, they have two Lurchers. I'm not sure about that last possibility, but yeah. Flamingo]
Pearl Chameleon Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 I'll vote for Flamingo, but I'd rather not shorten the day. Having more time is more useful to us than the elims, I'd think. Though I would probably go with the majority if shortening is possible. Once surviving shame on you. Twice survival shame on me. Thrice survival makes this a terrible Soren joke.
Emerald Falcon Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 *waits for Night flips before re-reading* *no Night flips* This is getting exhausting *sigh* Flamingo
Coral Swan Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 Flamingo doesn’t even seem to be in Tyrian Falls anymore, but rather Hinderstap. Time to get rid of them before the Pattern breaks even further. Laßt ihn, haltet, bindet nicht!
Amethyst Scorpion Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 Sweet merciful crackers I guess let’s try to kill flamingo, though m-my optimism in our ability to kill the bird is waning fast. H-his ability to evade d-death resembles a r-roadrunner more than a flamingo at th-this point. He m-might just be immortal, a d-deity or trickster god from the celestial realm who d-decided t-to come down to our p-plane to t-teach us a lesson about the futility of all actions in an uncaring universe. oh sorry, I got into mommy’s good juice cabinet. Imma go to b-bed
Indigo Weasel Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 What THE ACTUAL HECK Flamingo this is a game where people are supposed to die. Your stubborn refusal of death is completely unforgivable.
Plum Rhinoceros Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) im kinda convinced flamingo is an e!mistborn at this point, they went into d4 voting for themselves which leads me to believe they rolled pewter that day, but i guess we shall see Edited January 9, 2023 by Plum Rhinoceros
Opal Lion Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) [If I vote Flamingo twice, does it count twice? Don't want any chances.] Guy angwy. Guy go depheffer Fafingo. Edited January 9, 2023 by Opal Lion
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 [OOC: This is getting ridiculous Onyx Flamingo]
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 So there's still basics of this game that I'm still coming to terms with, but I do have one probably important question to ask: Flamingo apparently claimed to be a Thug. Is Flamingo saying their pewter saved them the first time they were attacked, or the second time? ( @Onyx Flamingo )
Onyx Flamingo Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 20 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said: So there's still basics of this game that I'm still coming to terms with, but I do have one probably important question to ask: Flamingo apparently claimed to be a Thug. Is Flamingo saying their pewter saved them the first time they were attacked, or the second time? ( @Onyx Flamingo ) I was saved the first time by my Pewter. So the elims have 2 mistborn/lurchers, or some villager really doesn't like the Coinshot. I do have to say, it feels pretty obvious to me that the elims would protect me the last two nights, assuming they were able. I was the obvious Coinshot target and the lack of my flip would continue to set exe discussion back. Assuming the Coinshot is village of course. Nothing has really changed on my front, so Flamingo.
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, Onyx Flamingo said: I was saved the first time by my Pewter. So the elims have 2 mistborn/lurchers, or some villager really doesn't like the Coinshot. I do have to say, it feels pretty obvious to me that the elims would protect me the last two nights, assuming they were able. I was the obvious Coinshot target and the lack of my flip would continue to set exe discussion back. Assuming the Coinshot is village of course. Nothing has really changed on my front, so Flamingo. Okay, I'm finally starting to understand whey everyone is so surprised and confused by the fact that you're still alive :P. Regardless of anything else, I do believe you're a genuine Thug, and that this is what saved you N2. So the question is what happened on the subsequent nights. Clearly, some mixture of Lurchers and Mistborn are responsible (either 2 lurchers, 2 mistborn, or 1 and 1). And it seems overwhelmingly likely that the spiked are the ones who saved you. I really cannot imagine a single half-sensible reason why multiple villagers would make a concerted effort to screw with a presumed village coinshot and prevent an alignment flip from happening. Giving the spiked two Lurchers sounds quite crazy at first, but on second thought, I don't think it's very unbalanced. I don't actually think we can reasonably afford to discard that possibility, given the history of trollish role distributions in Tyrian Falls games. But are the spiked protecting a spiked, or just wasting the village's time by eating up coinshot kills and now a lynch? Both are possible. This is where things get interesting, because we know almost for certain that the spiked have [2 mistborn, 2 lurchers, or 1 mistborn 1 lurcher]. And at the extreme peril of making decisions based on roles analysis in a Tyrian Falls game, I really can't easily see a spiked team that includes a Thug on top of those existing roles. Because the reason to include a Thug is mainly to balance against a village Coinshot, but Mistborn and Lurchers both do that already. Even if our wonderful GMs wanted to design a role distribution that was unexpected, I believe they would still take this sort of thing into account. So I think there is a good reason that the idea of a spiked Thug is a bit weird. On top of that, this cycle's vote is almost comically unanimous so far :P. I gather that last cycle was very similar, because Crocodile was scanned as a spiked. Therefore: I don't think so. Even though it's risky, I'm going to play Flamingo's advocate and say the current lynch actually shouldn't happen. Sadly, I'm still behind on a lot of reading, and I don't think I understand the current non-Flamingo-related situation nearly well enough to suggest an alternative (yet).
Fuchsia Ostrich Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 [OOC: Hi. I woke up and couldn't fall back asleep, so you get a quick response to this bit I just saw. 9 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said: This is where things get interesting, because we know almost for certain that the spiked have [2 mistborn, 2 lurchers, or 1 mistborn 1 lurcher]. And at the extreme peril of making decisions based on roles analysis in a Tyrian Falls game, I really can't easily see a spiked team that includes a Thug on top of those existing roles. Because the reason to include a Thug is mainly to balance against a village Coinshot, but Mistborn and Lurchers both do that already. Even if our wonderful GMs wanted to design a role distribution that was unexpected, I believe they would still take this sort of thing into account. So I think there is a good reason that the idea of a spiked Thug is a bit weird. You do realize that if Flamingo is evil, they're probably lying, right? Like, I get what you're saying, but there's always the possibility that Flamingo burned through their extra life on N3, or even that Flamingo is the second Lurcher/Mistborn. Village Flamingo who burned through their extra life N2 is a nice sounding story, but it's just that. A story. Its veracity can only be proven by death, and we'll find out soon. Ok, I'm going to try sleep again. See if it works this time.]
Magenta Albatross Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 [OOC: Initial reaction: AGAIN??? I swear, Flamingo? More like flAMANgo with how long you’re surviving past your expiration date. Anyway. Call me crazy. But…I might agree with Hyena. You know what all this drama with Flamingo and Crocodile has made us forget? Our suspicions of Lion. Granted we could always come back to that. So maybe getting rid of Flamingo once and for really is for the best. But I cannot shake the feeling that we’re being toyed with at this point. And Flamingo feels like the poor little carrot at the end of the stick we’re chasing. Gah. I think…I think for our sanity, even though my heart is saying they’re good, we gotta vote Flamingo. Sorry dude.]
Opal Lion Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 26 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said: Our suspicions of Lion. Granted we could always come back to that. So maybe getting rid of Flamingo once and for really is for the best. [You do realize that if Flamingo is v, there is a minimum of two Lurchers (switch out with mistborn as necessary), and Flamingo is e, they have a minimum of a Thug and Lurcher (replace Thug with Mistborn or both with an extremely lucky Mistborn), how likely do you find it that the Spiked have two Lurchers and a Thug or two Thugs and a Lurcher?]
Sunburst Toucan Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 43 minutes ago, Opal Lion said: [You do realize that if Flamingo is v, there is a minimum of two Lurchers (switch out with mistborn as necessary), and Flamingo is e, they have a minimum of a Thug and Lurcher (replace Thug with Mistborn or both with an extremely lucky Mistborn), how likely do you find it that the Spiked have two Lurchers and a Thug or two Thugs and a Lurcher?] [You could very well be E!Mistborn, having pulled Pewter C3, and iron last cycle]
Charcoal Hyena Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Fuchsia Ostrich said: You do realize that if Flamingo is evil, they're probably lying, right? Like, I get what you're saying, but there's always the possibility that Flamingo burned through their extra life on N3, or even that Flamingo is the second Lurcher/Mistborn. Village Flamingo who burned through their extra life N2 is a nice sounding story, but it's just that. A story. Its veracity can only be proven by death, and we'll find out soon.] If Flamingo is evil, what does spiked Flamingo get out of saying they used pewter to survive N2 without it being true? Maybe there's something but I can't really think of anything. So even if they're evil, I disagree that they're probably lying about this just because they're evil. There is also a reason why I think Flamingo is telling the truth that has nothing to do with their alignment. On all of the nights after N2, there is an obvious reason why somebody might decide to protect Flamingo (they are an obvious coinshot target and that is reason enough for a spiked), but on N2 there isn't any such reason that I know of. To survive an attack by being lurched, somebody had to have correctly guessed that Flamingo would be a target for an attack. On the other hand, pewter just happens, and doesn't require anyone to have made a clever guess. So that version of events feels more believable. One thing I had not considered is that Flamingo could definitely be a mistborn who just happened to draw pewter on N2. In that case, claiming Thug would make a lot of sense. And I could believe in a role distribution that gives the spiked 3 mistborn or 2 mistborn and a lurcher. So my original argument about roles analysis is not quite as solid. [Edit: Although this version of events does require multiple mistborn to have drawn exactly the right metal on the right cycles to screw the village, which does start to stretch plausibility in my opinion, even if it is a real possibility.] Still... My gut says that Flamingo is actually village :(. As crazy as it probably sounds, we don't need to get a Flamingo flip to proceed with useful analysis. We already know that the coinshot is probably village and the ones protecting Flamingo are probably spiked. As far as I can tell, Flamingo flipping one way or another doesn't actually change any of this. Practically speaking, a Flamingo flip doesn't actually feel very helpful, even if cheating death 3 times is patently absurd and worthy of smiting :P. Edited January 9, 2023 by Charcoal Hyena
Sapphire Elephant Posted January 9, 2023 Posted January 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said: Still... My gut says that Flamingo is actually village It's certainly not impossible. Where I'm divided is in a V!CS world, which seems likely, Flamingo is obviously a distraction. Taking Flamingo off the board removes that distraction from the Coinshot, whereas leaving Flamingo on the board is going to leave the doubt of where they stand on the situation for the rest of the game. So what if they're a thug - that doesn't really inform their alignment either way. On the other hand, the real cost of executing Flam is the lack of true discussion that gives us opportunity to analyse reactions to find more Spiked. I do stand on the "would probably prefer to have Flam flip so the matter is resolve and/or I lean toward them being a Spiked Lurcher at this stage, but I think I will try look back over the previous cycles to see if there's any leads.
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