Mid-Range Game 56: Day of Reckoning

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

She would be the one exception, but I feel kinda similar to her as I do Stick. A few things that make me lean village but nothing that outright confirms it for me.

Could I ask what those are, or overcommitment problems?

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Could I ask what those are, or overcommitment problems?

The contents of their 1,2,3 posts being very stream of thought and revised as new info and interactions came in were a good look. I've no doubts in her ability to fake them, but tonally they match up with the impression Emerald left on me in the anon game. That and the genuine annoyance in that one C1 post about how no matter what she does people sus her for it. She wasn't getting voted on IIRC, so it felt more like a reaction to people not taking her posts seriously, which suggests to me that she's taking them very seriously (more seriously than I'd expect an elim to, given they know it's all forced). 

(ED1T: I will say my read of Illwei somewhat hinges on Mat's alignment tho. If Mat is an Elim then I could see them being partners).

Oh yeah @Devotary of Spontaneity,  on the subject of Stick. I think you mentioned that Stick gave the impression she had thought all epics were elims around the time of Archer's claim, right? How do you feel about that now that she's claiming Village Epic?

Edited February 14, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Ashbringer he/him]

TIL that my browser won't show up with a (1) for notifications unless it's a notification outside the page the tab is on. At least for here.

Welp.

Also, anyone know what it means when there's a pause || sign on the tab name?

[Kasimir he/him]

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

The contents of their 1,2,3 posts being very stream of thought and revised as new info and interactions came in were a good look. I've no doubts in her ability to fake them, but tonally they match up with the impression Emerald left on me in the anon game. That and the genuine annoyance in that one C1 post about how no matter what she does people sus her for it. She wasn't getting voted on IIRC, so it felt more like a reaction to people not taking her posts seriously, which suggests to me that she's taking them very seriously. 

(ED1T: I will say my read of Illwei somewhat hinges on Mat's alignment tho. If Mat is an Elim then I could see them being partners).

Fair, that tracks. Appreciate this, reads really not my strength though I should work on it

Committing to do a lot of re-assessing especially once the flip comes through, and will do more if I have some time but currently just trying to stimulate discussion (which I can at least do on low bandwidth.)

Falcon did say she was pretty busy, so there's that too in terms of activity.

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Oh yeah @Devotary of Spontaneity,  on the subject of Stick. I think you mentioned that Stick gave the impression she had thought all epics were elims around the time of Archer's claim, right? How do you feel about that now that she's claiming Village Epic?

Not Devotary, but it's something I also want to go back and look through if I have the time. Just do a basic MO level taxonomy of Archer claim reactions and compare them to what people supposedly know now, and check for anomalies. Could be interesting, since that was a bit helpful for Spiked analysis.

Just now, Ashbringer said:

Also, anyone know what it means when there's a pause || sign on the tab name?

If the tab is sort of inactive, or you're idled out, you're not getting updates from the Shard.

Oh yeah, Ash - on the A team thing, the main reason I left you out was that Devo focused on the later movements so my thought was that if she believes there's some Evil investment to save Stick, then it has to be someone active in solicitation or just some of the weirder later vote movements and interactions. As you pointed out, your vote was very stable  

[Ashbringer he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

If the tab is sort of inactive, or you're idled out, you're not getting updates from the Shard.

Oh yeah, Ash - on the A team thing, the main reason I left you out was that Devo focused on the later movements so my thought was that if she believes there's some Evil investment to save Stick, then it has to be someone active in solicitation or just some of the weirder later vote movements and interactions. As you pointed out, your vote was very stable

Usually idling out of a tab leaves it "faded" a bit - I only see the pause for the Shard. But that makes sense.

Ah yes. Later movements. Definitely a specialty of mine this game. Although I should vote, even if it's just to selfishly see if I'm the lucky Striker-bounce winner.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Ah yes. Later movements. Definitely a specialty of mine this game. Although I should vote, even if it's just to selfishly see if I'm the lucky Striker-bounce winner.

On that note, not exactly advocating it, but it's something I've thought about since Kas' role claim. If we really wanted to test the legitimacy of Striker's passive, we could organize everyone into voting themselves today, which would have the added benefit of psuedo-scanning a villager for everyone to see.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

On that note, not exactly advocating it, but it's something I've thought about since Kas' role claim. If we really wanted to test the legitimacy of Striker's passive, we could organize everyone into voting themselves today, which would have the added benefit of psuedo-scanning a villager for everyone to see.

You think the coordination would work? Because it almost certainly means at least one person will RNG die, so I suppose everyone would have to be cool with that, though I admit it pushes a bit closer to - getting people to do things than I'm comfortable with. (Don't really think it's mayoring per se, but I think it would ethically require collective consent since everyone doing this would be putting their neck on the chopping block, however small the odds are.)

Have considered it, yes because the fewer people who vote, the higher likelihood that my current Striker Riot order will fizzle out. But I did want to try to get off the pseudo-scan, yes.

[Ashbringer he/him]

I feel like it might be easier to just ask people to vote someone even if they don't have an opinion on... I guess just Devotary.

Wait, hang on. Do we have a plan? Or is this just C1-2 Electric Boogaloo, but somehow even worse? There's 2, maybe 3 Rioters, and the highest vote count is three?

... sigh. Well, it's not like I've got a better idea.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

You think the coordination would work? Because it almost certainly means at least one person will RNG die, so I suppose everyone would have to be cool with that, though I admit it pushes a bit closer to - getting people to do things than I'm comfortable with. (Don't really think it's mayoring per se, but I think it would ethically require collective consent since everyone doing this would be putting their neck on the chopping block, however small the odds are.)

Have considered it, yes because the fewer people who vote, the higher likelihood that my current Striker Riot order will fizzle out. But I did want to try to get off the pseudo-scan, yes.

Given how much time is remaining in the turn, it's probably too late to coordinate today, and tbh I'd rather do normal exes, especially in the future (assuming we do get alignment flips and this BLACKOUT game isn't an utter troll, *cough all-black alignments cough*). Def wouldn't recommend forcing anyone to do it, but if anyone wants to volunteer (for science!) then I wouldn't say no either. RE: the RNG part, we could still make sure the person we collectively decide to exe has the most votes (4 would be safest based on the vote manip we have seen?), but again, coordination is really the biggest problem.

For me I'm less interested in the pseudo-scan than I am in making sure Striker isn't lying, but I def wouldn't be upset if someone got cleared from it.

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Wait, hang on. Do we have a plan? Or is this just C1-2 Electric Boogaloo, but somehow even worse? There's 2, maybe 3 Rioters, and the highest vote count is three?

Yeah, exactly. I feel like part of this is a casualty of the fact we don't have a flip and discussion is anaemic. I've considered swapping my vote but it's ultimately symbolic since we know my Rioting will destroy my vote anyway.

Also fun fact guys, Rioters can't Riot to someone who doesn't have an existing vote on them. Which means that anyone who isn't voted on won't have a mysterious vote appear on them.

Edited to add:

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

For me I'm less interested in the pseudo-scan than I am in making sure Striker isn't lying, but I def wouldn't be upset if someone got cleared from it.

We good. I put in the order before I could forget, and found out a bunch of fun facts in the process :|

Edited February 14, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Yeah, exactly. I feel like part of this is a casualty of the fact we don't have a flip and discussion is anaemic. I've considered swapping my vote but it's ultimately symbolic since we know my Rioting will destroy my vote anyway.

Also fun fact guys, Rioters can't Riot to someone who doesn't have an existing vote on them. Which means that anyone who isn't voted on won't have a mysterious vote appear on them.

Yaaaaaay

Also, if you get redirected as a Rioter how does that work? I.e. if you're trying to move Striker's vote to Ash, and it redirects to Aman... does that move Aman's vote to Ash or Striker's vote to Aman?

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

We good. I put in the order before I could forget, and found out a bunch of fun facts in the process :|

Remind me: do you know if your action could only be redirected to Villagers voting, or if it could be redirected to non-voting Villagers too, and thus effectively do nothing? Cause I think that's the biggest problem. We'd need most people voting and probably decently spread out to make sure elims couldn't fake it by interfering with their own manips.

[|TJ| he/him]

@Kasimir, vig kills will not be differentiated from elim kills.

And another info, I'm PAFO-ing all OoA related questions. 

[Kasimir he/him]

11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Yaaaaaay

Also, if you get redirected as a Rioter how does that work? I.e. if you're trying to move Striker's vote to Ash, and it redirects to Aman... does that move Aman's vote to Ash or Striker's vote to Aman?

According to the clarification I received, Aman's vote moves to Ash. The redirect only affects the voter, not the vote target. I've been careful to RNG for the vote target (i.e. who I'll be traffic marshalling the vote to) from a pool to ensure that people are less likely to try to interfere with the bounce. I'll drop the action before rollover so that if I die, y'all know what went down.

What's more interesting :eyes:

8 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Remind me: do you know if your action could only be redirected to Villagers voting, or if it could be redirected to non-voting Villagers too, and thus effectively do nothing? Cause I think that's the biggest problem. We'd need most people voting and probably decently spread out to make sure elims couldn't fake it by interfering with their own manips.

I can't affect non-voters. So here's a concrete scenario, which might help make things clear for everyone. Suppose my redirect bounces off Striker, and RNG selects Szeth. Because Szeth currently has no vote, the action fails. I will be told that my Riot failed (or at least I won't be told it succeeded) and my vote will not disappear.

The real issue is if they kill me, in which case, you basically have to get Archer to ask me if my Riot succeeded. Among other things I suppose.

Another interesting fact: TJ has said he is PAFOing every single OoA question, no matter who it comes from. (Even Elims.) Which does make me wonder if - on the assumption there is a proper Elim team - one of them did in fact make a bad assumption and got screwed by OoA, hence no kill.

Edited to add: Honestly low key wondering if you guys want to get Karn to do a bounce too.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer he/him]

Great. Fantasitc.

I don't suppose you learn who you're redirected to?

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I will be told that my Riot failed (or at least I won't be told it succeeded) and my vote will not disappear.

The real issue is if they kill me, in which case, you basically have to get Archer to ask me if my Riot succeeded.

Well not exactly, yeah? We could at least see your own vote disappear / another vote get added to your target (who I presume you'll announce at the very last minute), or see your vote stay so, we don't whollu need confirmation of its success from you.

That said, I don't think you'll get NK'd today. But maybe that's just Copium.

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Great. Fantasitc.

I don't suppose you learn who you're redirected to?

Nope. That's the problem. That's why I acknowledge it's a longshot. If we're lucky, the vote difference will make it clear who we lost a vote from, but probably wouldn't hurt if we had more self-voting volunteers, I guess. 

If you have animal crackers, best start sacrificing them to RNGesus :eyes:

13 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

We'd need most people voting and probably decently spread out to make sure elims couldn't fake it by interfering with their own manips.

Not ideal, but at least we'd know their manip distro, I suppose.

Spread out in what sense?

Edited to add:

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Well not exactly, yeah? We could at least see your own vote disappear / another vote get added to your target (who I presume you'll announce at the very last minute), or see your vote stay so, we don't whollu need confirmation of its success from you.

Was thinking of interfering vote manip - a Soothe or another Rioter could muddy the waters a bit by causing my vote to disappear with no clear sign of an addition, or just stacking interactions. But agreed that watching the votes should be a good first indication.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer he/him]

Two Riots makes things complicated. Especially if you end up Rioting Karn or vice versa. But we can't really shut down all vote manip. As much as I'd like to.

[Amanuensis he/him]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Spread out in what sense?

Smaller numbers across multiple clusters like. 4/4/4/4/4 versus 10/10. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

Smaller numbers across multiple clusters like. 4/4/4/4/4 versus 10/10. 

Well right now, it's, what, 3/2/1/1/1/1/1/1/1? Can't exactly get more spread out unless people vote more.

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Two Riots makes things complicated. Especially if you end up Rioting Karn or vice versa. But we can't really shut down all vote manip. As much as I'd like to.

I mean, we could ask Karn very nicely not to vote manip, at least  I suppose. Though the odds of hitting Karn are not exactly high either, and might even be zero if we are V/E

Though that's a fun thought. On the assumption I'm V, I won't get redirected to an E Rioter, and I suppose we could nicely ask fellow V Rioters not to muck the waters up more

4 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Smaller numbers across multiple clusters like. 4/4/4/4/4 versus 10/10. 

In order to distribute targets so hostile vote manip struggles, I assume?

Yeah - guessing it's a bit late for that at the moment, too.

Edited to add:

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Well right now, it's, what, 3/2/1/1/1/1/1/1/1? Can't exactly get more spread out unless people vote more.

Probably going to ask someone to secure the top train, depending on whether people still feel Devotary. IMO, would be poor repayment for Striker if a bounce hits him and kills him because there are votes on him, and also gives him incentive to defect. Minimally should get Thaid or STINK to retract, if we're giving prima facie plausibility to his neutral claim.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer he/him]

Tag me in an hour or two and I might be able to get something in. I should be awake for rollover this time - although "awake" might be stretching the definition a bit 

Idk what to feel about Devotary. They poked me, and retracted without much reference to me in order to vote Stick... but if the only weird thing I can find is them voting me that's not something I'm going to run after. But if I can't do something tonight and wake up to you all pulling a paranoia bandwagon again I'll stabilize things. Or something. Something's a good plan.

[Amanuensis he/him]

My reads from yesterday:

Quote

D1 Reads List                    Legend: Leaning Elim, Null, Leaning Village

• Matrim's Dice (7): Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Thaidakar the Ghostblood, _Stick_, JNV, Kasimir, Archer
• _Stick_ (5): Illwei, Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Tani, Devotary of Spontaneity, 
• Archer (1): Karnatheon
   
• Experience, The Unknown Aon, STINK, Szeth_Pancakes, MintSilverTea, Dannnex, Orlok Tsubodai

Exes I'm cool with: Devo, Szeth, Tani, Mint, Dannex, probably in that order.

ED1T:

Kinda would like to give Devo more time, but also would be the most informational exe, so /shrug

Dannnex is kinda a weird one for me because I'm both leaning Village for him and pretty confident he has a role, which could be good info to have from a low-active kill, but would be me exeing a villager deliberately so doesn't feel good enough

Edited February 14, 2022 by Amanuensis

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

I'm not exactly sold on Stick being a Villager. But I really did like their post where they said they had a role they looked forward to using, but if Mat lived then an item could be made out of it, so at least it could still be used. Since then they've been relatively open about clarifying it, and the nonchalance I felt during that exchange was pretty reassurring.

Araris is kinda a nonstarter for me because I've never known how to read him and it seems a lot of the arguments against him are rep paranoia which by association annoys me and I'm wholly against.

So then today we are all kinda lost and confused (more so because of the lack of elim kill) with no certain direction to go. So why not exe a lower active? Give the active people more room to work and breathe?

on the subject of Stick. I think you mentioned that Stick gave the impression she had thought all epics were elims around the time of Archer's claim, right? How do you feel about that now that she's claiming Village Epic?

Being okay with someone she didn't think was village being able to make an item from a role that could have 'bad, destructive outcomes' is something.

How would your opinion of Araris change based on Mat, Stick, and Karnatheon's potential alignments alignments?

Presumably every death will have a delayed flip, and we can't afford to only have a suspicion exe every other cycle.

An elim knows whether the elim team is all Epics, but a villager doesn't regardless of whether or not they're an Epic.

[Kasimir he/him]

15 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Dannnex is kinda a weird one for me because I'm both leaning Village for him and pretty confident he has a role, which could be good info to have from a low-active kill, but would be me exeing a villager deliberately so doesn't feel good enough

Why leaning Village on Dannex? (Yes, sorry, know I'm saying that a lot but he's firmly a null for me so I'm curious.)

17 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

But if I can't do something tonight and wake up to you all pulling a paranoia bandwagon again I'll stabilize things. Or something. Something's a good plan.

Don't look at me, my vote is ideally disappearing into the ether

14 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Being okay with someone she didn't think was village being able to make an item from a role that could have 'bad, destructive outcomes' is something.

Point. @_Stick_ would like to hear this one.

@Devotary of Spontaneity, how have you read/found E!Araris in the past? You mention that you're not feeling good about Araris via connections to Stick, but taking a step back, how have you done so successfully? (Don't think I've had to be on opposite teams dealing with E!Araris as often and presumably you've encountered him more in your playhistory.)

Edited to add: @Devotary of Spontaneity - to be clear, not a CV question or a challenge, just wondering aloud given Exp clearly has bad gut on Araris and you also do have some suspicion of Araris, and there's the confounding issue of trying to read Araris.

Edited February 14, 2022 by Kasimir