Will Scadrial run out of metals?

[Mushroom Catalog]

Will Scadrians eventually eat all of their planet's metals? Especially with new allomantic tech on the verge of coming into existence, more and more metal will be used. There is a lot of metal in their planet. However, they are also planning on making to Space Age, with super cool stuff and things. That's gonna take a while, and there will be people burning metals the whole time probably.

What do you think?

[RShara]

Very unlikely. An Allomancer burns such tiny amounts of metal at a time. A single railroad track, or one of their skyscrapers uses more metal than all of the Allomancers that have ever existed have ever burned, combined.

[Honorless]

There's a WoB that states it would take a very long time

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zebobes

Since Allomancy is powered by burning metal, isn't Scadrial going to eventually start running out of metal?

Hmmm... is that why there's a space trilogy? They have to mine asteroids and other planets for their metal?

Brandon Sanderson

It could happen. However, it's not really a danger with the current population of Allomancers. There just aren't enough of them.

Footnote: This contradicts other exchanges where Brandon states that burned metals return to the planet.
17th Shard Forum Q&A (Sept. 28, 2012)

 

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Questioner

Is metal a renewable resource on [Scadrial], or is it going to run out?

Brandon Sanderson

It does run out.

Shadows of Self Chicago signing (Oct. 12, 2015)

It might be a plot point in sci-fi Mistborn, by that time they wouldn't be restricted to just Scadrial. Need for resources that fuels their Investiture could be a very big motivating factor for expansion/colonization 

 

But other WoBs contradict this and state that metal returns back to the system

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Questioner

So, you know, on Scadrial, once metal is burned, it returns to the ecosystem, because matter is not created or destroyed. Does color do the same thing on Nalthis? 

Brandon Sanderson

You're gonna make me try to decide-- does color have, um-- I'll have to think about it...

Oathbringer release party (Nov. 13, 2017)

I can't find the more direct WoBs, but there was one, at least

Edited January 23, 2020 by Honorless

[RShara]

42 minutes ago, Honorless said:

There's a WoB that states it would take a very long time

 

It might be a plot point in sci-fi Mistborn, by that time they wouldn't be restricted to just Scadrial. Need for resources that fuels their Investiture could be a very big motivating factor for expansion/colonization 

 

But other WoBs contradict this and state that metal returns back to the system

I can't find the more direct WoBs, but there was one, at least

I mean, it's not really necessary, it's just doing the math. A vial contains, what, an ounce of fluid and a handful of flakes? Let's call it 5 grams of flakes. Burn speed depends on the metal and flaring, etc, so that's not readily quantifiable, but let's just pull out a number and call it an average of 10 vials a week. That's 50 grams a week. Scadrial has the same length of year as Earth, so that's about 2.5 kg a year. Say their active Allomantic burning life is 50 years. That's about 130 kg. There are over 900kg in a ton. So 90 Allomancers burning 10 vials a week for 50 years to equal a single ton.

There's 60,000 tons of steel in the Empire State building. I couldn't find an annual production of bendalloy, one of the rarer and faster metals, but cadmium is something like 23,000 tons a year in 2012.

That'd be something like 2000 bendalloy Mistings or Mistborns burning 10 vials a week of bendalloy for 50 years to equal one single year of production.

Running out isn't a problem.

[Kingsdaughter613]

1 hour ago, RShara said:

I mean, it's not really necessary, it's just doing the math. A vial contains, what, an ounce of fluid and a handful of flakes? Let's call it 5 grams of flakes. Burn speed depends on the metal and flaring, etc, so that's not readily quantifiable, but let's just pull out a number and call it an average of 10 vials a week. That's 50 grams a week. Scadrial has the same length of year as Earth, so that's about 2.5 kg a year. Say their active Allomantic burning life is 50 years. That's about 130 kg. There are over 900kg in a ton. So 90 Allomancers burning 10 vials a week for 50 years to equal a single ton.

There's 60,000 tons of steel in the Empire State building. I couldn't find an annual production of bendalloy, one of the rarer and faster metals, but cadmium is something like 23,000 tons a year in 2012.

That'd be something like 2000 bendalloy Mistings or Mistborns burning 10 vials a week of bendalloy for 50 years to equal one single year of production.

Running out isn't a problem.

More like: running out may be a problem, but it won’t be due to allomancy.

[Gilphon]

The idea that they're permanently consuming the metals has never sat well with me, but not really of 'they're going to eventually run out reasons'. It's more because of the thematic implications of Allomancy- which is to say, Preservation's power- being fueled by destroying matter in a way that none of the other Cosmere magic systems do. Like, that's just not Preserving anything, y'know? I know theoretically the idea is that the power you get out of it more than makes up for the lost material, but it's always felt to me like Allomancy would have to be a lot stronger for that to be true. Because E = mc² and all that implies. 

But if the metal is somehow cycled back into the planet, things make sense to me- Using Allomancy actively helps to replenish the world's supply, and the power you get from burning it is extra oomph added to the system. Which is a much better fit for how the thematics of Allomancy are actually presented.

[Aon Tia]

6 hours ago, RShara said:

I mean, it's not really necessary, it's just doing the math. A vial contains, what, an ounce of fluid and a handful of flakes? Let's call it 5 grams of flakes. Burn speed depends on the metal and flaring, etc, so that's not readily quantifiable, but let's just pull out a number and call it an average of 10 vials a week. That's 50 grams a week. Scadrial has the same length of year as Earth, so that's about 2.5 kg a year. Say their active Allomantic burning life is 50 years. That's about 130 kg. There are over 900kg in a ton. So 90 Allomancers burning 10 vials a week for 50 years to equal a single ton.

There's 60,000 tons of steel in the Empire State building. I couldn't find an annual production of bendalloy, one of the rarer and faster metals, but cadmium is something like 23,000 tons a year in 2012.

That'd be something like 2000 bendalloy Mistings or Mistborns burning 10 vials a week of bendalloy for 50 years to equal one single year of production.

Running out isn't a problem.

I agree. Given the tiny amount they burn and the little population of Mistings that is present on the planet, mistborn a bring basically extinct, it is very unlikely that they are going to run out of metals due to its acting as a Allomantic fuel. 
Feruchemy anyway is such a magic system that it does not consume metal at all. And now with knowledge so widespread about it, I think Hemalurgy if anyone uses, will be used to acquire Feruchemy skills more than Allomantic ones and therefore even Hemalurgically created magic users are not going to be huge in numbers and they will not be burning metals much. 

[Raphaborn]

22 minutes ago, Gilphon said:

The idea that they're permanently consuming the metals has never sat well with me, but not really of 'they're going to eventually run out reasons'. It's more because of the thematic implications of Allomancy- which is to say, Preservation's power- being fueled by destroying matter in a way that none of the other Cosmere magic systems do. Like, that's just not Preserving anything, y'know? I know theoretically the idea is that the power you get out of it more than makes up for the lost material, but it's always felt to me like Allomancy would have to be a lot stronger for that to be true. Because E = mc² and all that implies. 

But if the metal is somehow cycled back into the planet, things make sense to me- Using Allomancy actively helps to replenish the world's supply, and the power you get from burning it is extra oomph added to the system. Which is a much better fit for how the thematics of Allomancy are actually presented.

The gods do not create the magic system, they fueled the magic system. Not to mention that the metal is not being destroyed, it is being transformed into Investiture. That can one day be replaced with the use of Soulcasters. And there is also the possibility for humans to find a way to connect to Preservation without using metals as a focus.

 

Chaos

Allomancy provides many very dramatic effects, which some have noted is not very much like Preservation. Could you walk me through how Allomancy is of Preservation, though it does dramatic, dynamic things?

Brandon Sanderson

One of the 'basics' of the magic in all of the worlds is that the energy of Shards can fuel all kinds of interactions, not just interactions based on their personality/role. I did this because otherwise, the Magics would all be extremely limited.

The 'role' of the Shard has to do with the WAY the magic is obtained, not what it can do. So, in Preservation's case, the magic is a gift--allowing a person to preserve their own strength, and rely upon the strength granted by the magic. While Hemalurgy has a huge cost, ending in net entropy.

-

 

Brandon Sanderson

Chapter Thirty-Eight

Preservation's Power

All right, so maybe I lied about there only being three magic systems in this book. It comes down to how you term the powers of Preservation and Ruin, who kind of blanket the entire system. There are a lot of things going on here, and—well, the truth is I don't want to mention all of them, for fear of spoiling future books. However, I'll give you a few rules to apply.

First, to these forces, energy and mass are the same thing. So, their power can take physical shape—as Preservation's did in the bead of metal Elend ate. Second, there is a bit of Preservation inside of all the people—and it's this that allows the people to perform Allomancy. It needs to be awakened and stirred to be of use, but when it is, a proper metal can draw forth more of Preservation's power. It's like the metal attunes the bit within the person, allowing it to act as a catalyst to grab more power.

Allomancy is not fueled by metal; it is fueled by Preservation. The metal is the means by which a person can access that fuel, however. If there were another way to access it, then the metal wouldn't be needed.

Preservation's touch on people differs. Some have more, some have less. This doesn't make them better or worse people—indeed, some most touched by Preservation have been among the worst people in the world. As Ruin later points out, there is a difference between being evil and being destructive.

Regardless, if a person can get more Preservation into them, they become better Allomancers. Hence Elend becoming a Mistborn. Like all people, he had the potential within him—it was just too small of a potential to be awakened through normal means. That little jolt of Preservation's body, however, expanded and awakened his Allomancy.

As a tidbit, that was a side effect of what that bead of metal did. It wasn't the main purpose of the bead, and if another Allomancer were to burn it, it would do something else.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Raphaborn

[Gilphon]

Well, no, see, Preservation might not have designed the magic system, but Brandon sure did. And Brandon sure decided to make a entire cosmere concept of the purposes of describing how Allomancy is drawing more power into the system, and therefore it's a fitting power for Preservation. Which is why is it would be very odd if Allomancy was the only magic system that always removes matter from the system. 

And, like, here's an example. Let's say your a Coinshot, and burn 1 gram of steel to push a coin however much distance that steel gets you. So the 1 gram is converted to Investiture, then that Investiture is sent to Preservation, and then Preservation sends you the Investiture you need to perform the push. Since Allomancy is end positive, we can say that Preservation send you more than 1 gram's worth of Investiture. And then, by pushing on the coin, you convert that Investiture into energy.

Okay, done. What's the net result from that interaction? We've lost 1 gram of mass, nothing is any more invested than it was a second ago, and we've added some energy to the system. We must've added more than 1 gram's worth of energy to the system then, because otherwise we didn't gain anything. Quickly running that through the relativity equation, we get that a single gram of steel lets you exert more force than 21.5 kilotons of TNT on a coin. Which is roughly the same amount of energy as a nuke.

But, y'know, Coinshots clearly aren't nuking everything any time they do anything, so that can't possibly be how it works. So either Allomancy isn't actually end-positive, and you're in fact getting less than 1 gram worth of investiture per gram of metal, or the metal isn't actually being lost- it's still around in some way that's useable. Which would make sense if the metal was getting recycled back into the planet somehow.

[Weltall]

1 hour ago, Gilphon said:

Well, no, see, Preservation might not have designed the magic system, but Brandon sure did. And Brandon sure decided to make a entire cosmere concept of the purposes of describing how Allomancy is drawing more power into the system, and therefore it's a fitting power for Preservation. Which is why is it would be very odd if Allomancy was the only magic system that always removes matter from the system.

You're misunderstanding both the nature of the 'end-x' designation and the way the Cosmere works. When Brandon describes a system as end-positive, it means that the Investiture providing the power to do whatever magic you're trying to accomplish is external to the user. It doesn't mean it's a net gain of energy, as Investiture is another state along with the matter/energy duality and the Cosmere follows real-world thermodynamics with Investiture layered on top.

Allomancy and Surgebinding are end-positive because the power for the magic is coming from outside the user, feruchemy is end-neutral because it's all coming from the user and hemalurgy end-negative because the power is being taken from someone else with a net loss before it reaches the recipient. In all cases however the net 'energy' in the system is unchanged since the Investiture recycles and any lost matter is simply converted into the Investiture state.

Allomancy is of Preservation because the user's own power is preserved while the energy comes from the Spiritual Realm, shaped by the metal being burned.

[Gilphon]

I promise you I'm not misunderstanding how the Cosmere works. When I say 'the system', I mean the 'matter/energy system'. I'm making a distinction between Investiture and things that aren't investiture. And arguing that if the burning metals indeeds converts them into investiture in a way that's not easily reversible, then the overall result of Allomancy is that matter is lost from 'the system', in the same sense as I defined above. 

Which, y'know, there's absolutely no Realmatic reason why such a thing wouldn't be possible, but it means the whole 'end-x' is being defined in a way that's self-evidently counter intuitive. Especially to the people who would've been reading Sazed's book, what with them not having any real conception of the realmatics involved. Like surely whoever picked up the Words of Founding wouldn't gone 'what? Allomancy consumes metals constantly, how is that end-positive?' I certainly did when I first read that. Which is part of why I've always preferred the idea that the metals are somehow return to the planet; in that case the person reading it would instead nod and go 'makes sense. We're essentially getting power for free with Allomancy, after all.'

And really, as long as I'm airing out my issues with things established the Hero of Ages Epigraphs, I've always thought it would make more sense if Feruchemy was the Preservation magic and Allomancy was the combination. Like they both do the thing where the user always has the same amount of power, but Feruchemy is all about building up stockpiles and Allomancy is about destroying one thing to accomplish something else. But I once again need to emphasize that this is a thematic issue, not a realmatic one. 

[Weltall]

5 minutes ago, Gilphon said:

I promise you I'm not misunderstanding how the Cosmere works. When I say 'the system', I mean the 'matter/energy system'. I'm making a distinction between Investiture and things that aren't investiture.

And this right here is the problem, because you're trying to draw a distinction that does not exist. Did you read the WoB I linked to? Because Brandon looks at this exact question and explains why your personal definition of 'the system' is flawed.

Quote

And really, as long as I'm airing out my issues with things established the Hero of Ages Epigraphs, I've always thought it would make more sense if Feruchemy was the Preservation magic and Allomancy was the combination. Like they both do the thing where the user always has the same amount of power, but Feruchemy is all about building up stockpiles and Allomancy is about destroying one thing to accomplish something else. But I once again need to emphasize that this is a thematic issue, not a realmatic one. 

Thematically, with feruchemy you're Ruining yourself in the short term by storing some trait, Preserving it until you need it in the future, with the result that there's no net change either positive or negative. The End-x designations are being used to describe how they affect the individual user, not the system as a whole so the fact that matter is lost in the conversion of Investiture to action is irrelevant. Here's another WoB that explains this very clearly.

[Honorless]

Is it just me who thought that Preservation talked about Allomancy as if he did design it? Or is it being seen as him fiddling with it, shifting metals around, etc?

 

Edit: other threads which might be of interest:

https://amp.reddit.com/r/Mistborn/comments/8bi44y/era_2cosmere_running_out_of_metal/

https://amp.reddit.com/r/AskScienceFiction/comments/3ilsrk/mistborn_are_they_going_to_eventually_run_out_of/

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by Dreamer

[Gilphon]

On 1/24/2020 at 6:53 PM, Weltall said:

And this right here is the problem, because you're trying to draw a distinction that does not exist. Did you read the WoB I linked to? Because Brandon looks at this exact question and explains why your personal definition of 'the system' is flawed.

Of course the distinction exists. Just like how general relativity doesn't mean that you can't distinguish between matter and energy, it's still possible to distinguish between investiture and not investiture. Once again, I promise you that I'm not misunderstanding anything about how the Cosmere works. 

And nor it I misunderstand the definition you gave for the 'end X'. I just that said that that definition is, while technically accurate for Allomancy, very counter-intuitive and not a particularly useful way of looking at it; although you're not spending your internal Investiture or anything fundamental like that, you're still spending a limited resource, and getting less power out of it than that resource should be worth. Surely you can, at the very least, appreciate how it's an odd decision for Brandon to make our textbook example of an 'End-positive' magic system to be one that works like that.

Unless, of course, you assume there's some mechanism that replaces the metals, in which case that all works just fine. It's not like there's any Realmatic reason why the metals have to be lost permanently; the bones of Dahkor Monks are conceptually similar conduits, and it's not like those poof away every time they use their powers.

On 1/24/2020 at 6:53 PM, Weltall said:

Thematically, with feruchemy you're Ruining yourself in the short term by storing some trait, Preserving it until you need it in the future, with the result that there's no net change either positive or negative

I mean, yes, that's exactly what I meant. 'The result is that there's no net change either positive or negative' is precisely why I feel it would make so much more sense as 'pure Preservation' magic system. Preventing all kinds of change is exactly what Preservation is all about. See Ruin talking about how Preservation would've just trapped everyone in stasis forever if Ruin hadn't been there to balance him out. 

[Raphaborn]

14 minutes ago, Gilphon said:

I mean, yes, that's exactly what I meant. 'The result is that there's no net change either positive or negative' is precisely why I feel it would make so much more sense as 'pure Preservation' magic system. Preventing all kinds of change is exactly what Preservation is all about. See Ruin talking about how Preservation would've just trapped everyone in stasis forever if Ruin hadn't been there to balance him out. 

Well, I understand your point, but I wouldn't trust Ruin much. Preservation did the complete opposite of that in the end, and also exchanged two of its basic powers of Alomancy for powers of Ruin (One of them very good at causing death). The answers below also make me think that the fact that the metal is metabolized is to return the Investiture used back to Preservation. While technically Shards are infinite, Vessels have a limit on how much power they can use at once . Not consuming the metal is likely to lower that limit more and more ((It consumes Shard's body directly!), which is why the Shards avoid directly fueling magic systems. Other types of Focus should have similar motifs. So the Focus serves to use the power of the Shard directly from the spiritual realm (without affecting the Vessel), while the Vessel fueled the magic system drains from its own potential.

Master_Moridin

Why does Preservation fueling Allomancy not weaken Preservation compared to Ruin?

Brandon Sanderson

Because the power, once used, returns to him--much as water, after passing over a turbine, continues on in its system.

17th Shard Forum Q&A (Sept. 28, 2012)
 

Kaimipono

Allomancy is fueled by Preservation's body? How exactly does that work? And how does that interact with Atium—it's fueled by both gods' bodies?

Brandon Sanderson

The powers of Ruin and Preservation are Shards of Adonalsium, pieces of the power of creation itself. Allomancy, Hemalurgy, Feruchemy are manifestations of this power in mortal form, the ability to touch the powers of creation and use them. These metallic powers are how people's physical forms interpret the use of the Shard, though it's not the only possible way they could be interpreted or used. It's what the genetics and Realmatic interactions of Scadrial allow for, and has to do with the Spiritual, the Cognitive, and the Physical Realms.

Condensed 'essence' of these godly powers can act as super-fuel for Allomancy, Feruchemy, or really any of the powers. The form of that super fuel is important. In liquid form it's most potent, in gas form it's able to fuel Allomancy as if working as a metal. In physical form it is rigid and does one specific thing. In the case of atium, it allows sight into the future. In the case of concentrated Preservation, it gives one a permanent connection to the mists and the powers of creation. (I.e., it makes them an Allomancer.)

So when a person is burning metals, they aren't using Preservation's body as a fuel so to speak—though they are tapping into the powers of creation just slightly. When Vin burns the mists, however, she'd doing just that—using the essence of Preservation, the Shard of Adonalsium itself—to fuel Allomancy. Doing this, however, rips 'troughs' through her body. It's like forcing far too much pressure through a very small, fragile hose. That much power eventually vaporizes the corporeal host, which is acting as the block and forcing the power into a single type of conduit (Allomancy) and frees it to be more expansive.

Hero of Ages Q&A - Time Waster's Guide (Oct. 15, 2008)

[Channelknight Fadran]

If you recall, mistborn allomancy is an end-neutral investiture; no investiture is lost. It'll eventually regrow like the Atium of Ruin's body.

[Raphaborn]

4 hours ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

If you recall, mistborn allomancy is an end-neutral investiture; no investiture is lost. It'll eventually regrow like the Atium of Ruin's body.

No, is End-Positive, it comes from the power of Preservation.. Feruchemy is End-Neutral, and Hemalurgy is End-Negative.

[Channelknight Fadran]

12 hours ago, Raphaborn said:

No, is End-Positive, it comes from the power of Preservation.. Feruchemy is End-Neutral, and Hemalurgy is End-Negative.

Well guess who's a little rusty on his Mistborn knowledge . Thanks!