Quick Fix Game 30: Manywar

[Arinian]

3 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Ripple's right, we have an odd number of players, so we can't have an even number of village and elims, unless you buy Arinian's theory.

Which theory? That you elim? Well, I think that is nice theory. Or you about suicide role? I don't think that it's very plausible, just tried to think about all possibilities. 

Also you right I think that initialy there were only 3 elims. Drought dead now, second elim it's you, third that's the question but of course if you want you can help us with last one 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I had him contact the dead doc, and ask Coop "What was the last Emoji Joe used in his PM with you? If Drought is telling the truth, tell the truth. If Drought is lying, lie." Later, Coop answered, and answered honestly. I took that to mean, as per the system i had set up, that Drought was telling the truth. I have no idea why Coop said the right thing. Maybe Shqueeves didn't give him the full message.

Who do you mean by 'him'? Either way, I don't see how this plan would work. No matter what Coop said, Shqueeves, had he been evil, would have found it very easy to lie, which makes me think that you meant Drought asked Coop. In that case, knowing that Drought is evil, the main possibilities are 1.Coop answered honestly even though he almost certainly knew Drought was evil, 2.Drought made an extremely lucky guess, 3.You told Drought what the correct answer was, and 4.The entire plan was a lie. Either 1 or 2 would clear you, while 3 or 4 would mean that you are evil. Since Coop is a confirmed villager and the chances of randomly guessing are low, I will place my vote on you, Joe.

5 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

We have the same number of elims to village this cycle because we lost one of each.

Correct me if I'm wrong, @BrightnessRadiant, but I think she's just saying that our numerical advantage didn't increase. If there were three more villagers than eliminators, then there are still three more villagers than eliminators.

5 hours ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

As for Devotary there was a lot of distancing going on if they're an elim, but I still say they fit as an elim. I'll be back later to give my analysis on them.

If you have any questions, feel free to ask me in thread or in a PM.

 

Among the dead, we've seen two captains and two Awakeners, but only one sentry. @MonsterMetroid and @Ecthelion III, neither of you have checked in yet. Any chance one of you was alert enough to see who killed Shqueeves?

 

[MonsterMetroid]

"Roid not see Shu since he talk to lifeless for him" Roid said to Fahmexa. "Roid not see much much at all, but Roid see that it time to decide on Jeo the yeelow. Roid tink sometime that Jeo is Hallandren and other time that he be Idrian. But Roid tink that Jeo first night vote only make sense as elim if Ripple is also Elim... But Roid not sure if Ripple is Elim and wrong point could cost lives" Roid said solemnly "Many Idrians die, not many left, soon Hallandren might outnumber us, Roid would like to fight them fair but he guess they kill roid in sleep or with many lifeless and not fair."

"After much tink Roid point at Jeo, But Roid say if people have good doubt to speak doubt now and say better idea."

-------

Also this is just my opinion but I think there may have been 4 elims originally. Since the thread last cycle was marked "close to the end" , now this could apply either case but it is just the gut feeling i have. But in any case it is the difference between one allowed mislynch and no allowed mislynches 

[A Joe in the Bush]

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Who do you mean by 'him'? Either way, I don't see how this plan would work. No matter what Coop said, Shqueeves, had he been evil, would have found it very easy to lie, which makes me think that you meant Drought asked Coop. In that case, knowing that Drought is evil, the main possibilities are 1.Coop answered honestly even though he almost certainly knew Drought was evil, 2.Drought made an extremely lucky guess, 3.You told Drought what the correct answer was, and 4.The entire plan was a lie. Either 1 or 2 would clear you, while 3 or 4 would mean that you are evil. Since Coop is a confirmed villager and the chances of randomly guessing are low, I will place my vote on you, Joe.

Him was Shqueeves, number 1 is what happened, and you raise a good point that Evil!Shqueeves would have lied. So in hindsight, bad plan. But it did happen.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Vote tally: Joe(5) Ripple, Arinian, BR, Devotary, Monster

Not yet voted: @A Joe in the Bush-feel free to not vote, and @Ecthelion III-Please do if you're a villager

Just because the Joe lynch is essentially solidified doesn't mean we should abandon discussion for the entire cycle, @BrightnessRadiant, @MonsterMetroid, @Arinian, @RippleGylf.

[BrightnessRadiant]

9 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

How is that backtracking? I saw suspicious of Elenion, so i voted on him. At the time, he didn't have the most votes, and i didn't know that there were others suspicious of him. So i did not think he would get lynched, but then he did. I'm not happy he was lynched, but i don't regret it. It got rid of a player i was suspicious of, which allowed me to focus on other players.

It looks like backtracking because you stated suspicion on Len when you voted but then you sounded disappointed when he was lynched which isn't what you're saying now.

5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, @BrightnessRadiant, but I think she's just saying that our numerical advantage didn't increase. If there were three more villagers than eliminators, then there are still three more villagers than eliminators.

Yes, sorry for the confusion everyone, this is exactly what I meant, but worded it poorly.

Also, Joe and Devo, y'all need to stop because you're making me second guess my elim sus group as putting you both on a team xD

Edit: Also, I had no choice but to abandon the discussion all day because I had my first day of training at work all day. xD

Edited March 7, 2018 by BrightnessRadiant

[RippleGylf]

Alright, then... the main thing we need to figure out next is who the other elim(s) are. Any suspicions? All of mine are dead.

[BrightnessRadiant]

Okay but thinking about it more....why on earth would Joe vote on Shqueeves ten minutes before cycle ended if he was an elim? That'd be like...the worst elim move of all time unless the others were supposed to hammer and use one vote cancellation and no one else followed through. xD

My other elim read is Devotary and they came up on my list of suspects for both scenarios whether Drought was the elim or Shqueeves.

If you look at their voting, it's been on people who weren't up for a lynch except in the instance of Shqueeves and I have a feeling that the elims knew that Shqueeves was the other Awakener because Drought and Devotary both voted on Shqueeves in past cycles before it was ever revealed that he was an Awakener.

I know that Lopen expressed suspicion of Devotary in a past post and so did Monster and maybe someone else. Can't recall everything I read yesterday but I promise there were good reasons. xD

Also, Devotary voted on Joe on a different cycle so that's making me second guess Joe as well.

Edit: forgot this Joe

Edit: hm is 15 minutes long enough to edit and not double post? xD

looking through Devo's posts again and I think part of the reason they come off seeming so much like an elim is because they've spent far more time talking about how they don't agree with the lynches and think that almost everyone is village as opposed to how a normal villager is normally over paranoid of everyone. They've said they thought Mac was village and then Arinian and then Coop and then Lopen etc etc looking back through their post's they once theorized that Drought might be but only if Mac and Coop were. That's a great way to set up that they'd think Drought was village if Mac and Coop died and flipped village. (which they did) But all in all they looked more like they were trying not to accuse to many people or look bad for killing villagers. They look like they know the alignments of everyone more than a villager should.

Edit #3:

Vote Tally

Joe (4) Ripple, Arinian, BR, Devotary, Monster

Devotary (1) BR

@Ecthelion III @A Joe in the Bush please vote! and @MonsterMetroid @Shqueeves @RippleGylf @Arinian @Devotary of Spontaneity Any thoughts on the lynch as of now?

Edited March 7, 2018 by BrightnessRadiant

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I can't quote anything from locked threads, so just pretend that everything in " " quotations is inside a quote box. Page numbers are in parenthesis if you want to go find the original post. Bolded sections were added by me. If someone could tell me a better way to do this, that would be appreciated.

27 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

If you look at their voting, it's been on people who weren't up for a lynch except in the instance of Shqueeves and I have a feeling that the elims knew that Shqueeves was the other Awakener because Drought and Devotary both voted on Shqueeves in past cycles before it was ever revealed that he was an Awakener.

 You also voted on Shqueeves cycle 2.

Devotary (3)- Livinglegend, Lopen, Monster
Shqueeves (2)- Brightness, Devotary, Coop

In response to:

 

42 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

I know that Lopen expressed suspicion of Devotary in a past post and so did Monster and maybe someone else. Can't recall everything I read yesterday but I promise there were good reasons. xD

 

Lopen expressed suspicion of me in cycle 2:(pg9)

"Anyways, I'm voting for [Devotary] because I feel like he's in that category of posting and being active but not drawing any attention that eliminators often fit into. (Also he totally ninja'd me with that list of who hasn't voted yet >>)"

and Cycle 3:(pg11)

"It's also partly your tone, in that everything you say seems measured. In my experience, eliminators are usually the ones who are extra careful with their wording, whereas villagers often just post their thoughts without thinking about what might or might not look suspicious. If you posted more of a stream of thought post or got involved in a back and forth where your responses were only a few minutes after the most recent posts, I'd have less reason to suspect you of calculating your posts so as not to draw suspicion."

(This post probably isn't helping)

And in the same post(pg11):

"Another reason why I'm voting on Devotary is that I suspect that most of the players we've been focusing on so far(Mac, Shqueeves, you, Monster) are village, so I'm trying to make sure we don't let anyone just stay in the background of discussion and quietly make their way through the entire game"

Monster voted on me cycle 2:(pg10)

"Tings do move quick for Roid to understand but he tink the Lopen is right that [Devotary] say tings, and dont say other tings, to blend in like drab to awakener." Roid nodded "He also was watching with his finger til the very minute final decision made" "

And said this cycle 3:(pg11)

" "Roid been in army with Fahmxa(devotary) time before, Roid forget that Fam'exa not talk much, but now Fah" Roid paused his eyes showing concentration "mexa? Now it give Roid the tingles on back of neck, like Roid being watched but not seeing person watching." "

Livinglegend voted on me cycle 2 for:(pg10)

"I've got a slight elim read and I think it's just because I disagree with you on the use of awakeners. I understand your argument that eliminators might want the awakeners to claim so as to kill them quickly, but if we never end up asking the awakeners, we miss out on a lot of valuable information."

43 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

They look like they know the alignments of everyone more than a villager should.

I'm better at determining who the villagers are than who the eliminators are. For example, in this game I'm far more confident in my village reads of you, Monster, and Arinian than in my eliminator reads of either Ripple or Ecthelion.

[A Joe in the Bush]

On the off chnace i survive the lynch, and have time to analyse, i will toss a vote on Devotary. Brightness's logic seems sound. 

[Ecthelion III]

Quote

--Cycle 1--

Mac (2)- Elenion, Lopen
Randuir (2)- Straw, Mac
RippleGylf (2)- Ecthelion, Monster
Arinian (2)- Drought, Joe
Straw (1)- Randuir
MonsterMetroid (1)- Livinglegend
TheMightyLopen (1)- Shqueeves
Livinglegend (1)- Bort
Elenion (1)- BrightnessRadiant
Bort (1)- Devotary
Ecthelion (1)- Coop
Drought (1)- Ripple
Shqueeves (1)- Arinian

 

--Cycle 2--

Straw (4)- Joe, Elenion, Shqueeves, Mac
Devotary (3)- Livinglegend, Lopen, Monster
Shqueeves (2)- Brightness, Devotary, Coop
Mac (2)- Straw, Ripple
Ripple (1)- Bort
Elenion (1)- Ecthelion
Arinian (1)- Drought
Drought (1)- Arinian

 

--Cycle 3—

Mac (3)- Elenion, Monster, Arinian
Arinian (3)- Shqueeves, Mac, Ripple
Elenion (3)- Bort, Joe, Lopen
Shqueeves (2)- Brightness, Drought
Bort (1)- Livinglegend
Joe (1)- Devotary
Brightness (1)- Ecthelion
Drought (0)- Coop

 

--Cycle 4—

Lopen (2)- Bort, Ecthelion, Arinian
Arinian (2)- Joe, Coop
Ecthelion (1)- Shqueeves
Legend (1)- Lopen
Ripple (1)- Devotary
Mac (1)- Monster
Brightness (1)- Drought
Drought (1)- Ripple
Monster (1)- Brightness

 

--Cycle 5--

Coop (4)- Joe, Brightness, Devotary, Drought
Drought (2)- Shqueeves, Coop
Arinian (1)- Ecthelion
Brightness (1)- Monster
Joe (1)- Ripple
Ecthelion (1)- Arinian

 

--Cycle 6--

Drought (7)- Shqueeves, Brightness, Devotary, Monster, Ripple, Arinian, Ecthelion
Shqueeves (2)- Drought, Joe

 

--Cycle 7 (so far)—

Joe (5)- Ripple, Arinian, Devotary, Monster, Ecthelion
Devotary (2)- Brightness, Joe

All the voting of the entire game, with alignment colors.

So, last night with Joe... I'm not sure exactly what that was supposed to do. It would be incredibly damning if he was evil, so it wouldn't make sense in the first place to do that if he was an eliminator (because he'd already know Drought to be evil). Or maybe that's just what he wants us to think??

Tbh that move makes sense neither for a villager or eliminator. 

Joe. For that and for because you voted with Drought 50% of the time.

[MonsterMetroid]

I agree with a lot of Brightnesses post... sigh Something about teh Joe lynch feels off with his behavior and the lack of opposition.... which enters into the whole IKYK territory. Seeing how we could lose the game on one mislynch I guess I do feel a bit more comfortable with a Devotary Lynch over a joe lynch just in case joe is like some sort of jester or returned role and wants to be lynched which is the only thing that could explain some of his votes to me completely.

All in all it is a pretty bizarre situation to read and I wouldnt mind if either one gets lymched

[Ecthelion III]

Something about this seems really off to me. It seems pretty certain to me that Joe is evil after what happened last night and his voting, so I think this shift over to Devotary is a play for the victory. (Assuming there were 4 eliminators, if they have a functional night kill [still uncertain lol] and kill a villager, they'll win immediately. ) Monster, that vote is the tipping point. [Joe]

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

@Ecthelion III Shqueeves was murdered last night, so it seems like the eliminators do have a night kill.

 @BrightnessRadiant-you have already explained why you are voting on me, but I would appreciate it if you would comment on my previous post.

@MonsterMetroid-I'd like to know why you are voting on me. Your post makes it sound like you think I'm confirmed evil. What evidence do you have to support that?

@A Joe in the Bush-I don't really expect you to change your mind seeing as you're currently tied with me for votes, but can you at least justify your self-preservation with more than a bandwagon vote?

 

 

[MonsterMetroid]

7 minutes ago, Ecthelion III said:

Something about this seems really off to me. It seems pretty certain to me that Joe is evil after what happened last night and his voting, so I think this shift over to Devotary is a play for the victory. (Assuming there were 4 eliminators, if they have a functional night kill [still uncertain lol] and kill a villager, they'll win immediately. ) Monster, that vote is the tipping point. [Joe]

Hmmm interesting, noone had any issues about piling onto joe but as soon as the vote starts tipping near equal with devotary we get some pushback interesting

I have been asked in PM by devotary why I am voting for him, I'm not sure why he didnt ask in here but I will answer in here. (nevermind he asked in here while I was typing this haha)

1st, while it was devotary's idea to use the awakeners and lopens PM's to communicate between the living and dead players he only wanted to do it to confirm that they were both in the dead doc before we lynched one of them, something that while it wasn't confirmed it certainly didn't seem necessary as both of them certainly had access to information in the dead doc either directly or through another person and postponing the lynch to confirm one thing over multiple stages seemed like a delay tactic. Much easier to just ask lopen who he expected in code using the Pms devotary mentioned  and then lynch right away.

this post in particular makes me think they wanted to postpone the lynch using this tactic

2nd, you leave doubt in a lot of your posts for reexamination. Here are some examples (bolding is mine and not original to the post)

Quote

@Coop772, you're the best lead I have at the moment, and we can't afford to split the vote and allow the elims to manipulate the lynch. If you are a villager, you can share your analysis with any village Awakeners tomorrow, especially as Drake's ruling makes it unlikely that we'll lose tonight unless the elim team has five members and you're not one of them.          

Quote

EDIT: Looking at Arinian's posts, I'm getting a village read on him. I'e played a couple of games with him before, and he seems to be using a similar playstyle. While there are some odd things about his behavior, like his unexplained vote for Lopen this cycle, it's not enough for me to tie the lynch this late in the cycle. If you're a villager, sorry Lopen.

Quote

Edit:

Wow, I changed my mind there halfway through typing that up. The sudden swing to Elenion has made it worthwhile to verify the captain’s identity and alignment. If Elenion dies today and flips village, I am going to have to look at Mac, Joe, Coop and Lopen tomorrow.

Now this seems to me like an elim repeatedly trying to cover his voting because he actually knows that these people are villagers. It's either that or Devotary votes on people he can't even convince himself are elims (which in my experience villagers are usually the opposite and its hard to convince them someone is not an elim ).

3rd Lopen suspected you *shrug*

4th the reasons I gave when I voted on you originally a few cycles ago where a lot of your analysis seemed fluffy and possible misdirection

5th to make things interesting and a bit more chaotic ( and see if anyone pushes back)

And finally 6th you ere attached to drought for a while defending him and attacking others. Like poor coop here

Quote

Until/unless @Shqueeves responds, I will put my vote on Coop. You've said:

On 3/4/2018 at 4:25 PM, Coop772 said:

I said 90% because I couldn't be sure he wasn't an elim that was lying to me. I was trying to protect him because I suspected (he had roleclaimed) him to be village, and I didn't have a good read on anyone else w/ a role, so keeping a village alive would be super important

Last cycle, you also said "I am not a captain, and you (anyone) can scan me if you don’t believe me (not sure if that would prove it, but it couldn’t hurt)." If you neither are a captain, nor know a captain, why did you get targeted twice in a row? Since the main thing the captain has done so far other than remove your vote has been the attempt to save a villager(Lopen) from dying, I'm inclined to believe that the captain is a villager. This makes me think that you're either lying about knowing the captain's identity, or a villager has reason to suspect you. Feel free to correct any errors I made in this analysis, @Coop772.

which this post still doesnt make sense to me... a captain removed his vote and the captain is probably a villager so coop must be an elim? Like what a village vote manip has never targeted a villager before? This vote also gave coop 4 votes and drought only 2 thus preventing a possible tie by teh captain. And You only voted for drought last cycle when it became apparent he was going to get lynched.

Sorry for the long ramble but TL;DR I suspect you and I have reasons

Now time for me to go prepare for me or BR (if she truly is villager like I suspect) to be stabbed tonight.

 

[BrightnessRadiant]

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

You also voted on Shqueeves cycle 2.

Devotary (3)- Livinglegend, Lopen, Monster
Shqueeves (2)- Brightness, Devotary, Coop

.......

I'm better at determining who the villagers are than who the eliminators are. For example, in this game I'm far more confident in my village reads of you, Monster, and Arinian than in my eliminator reads of either Ripple or Ecthelion.

Did you just do a full analysis on yourself based on my analysis? What.... xD uhm thank you? That's really itching my doubt spot again xD 

Yes iirc I tried to lynch Shqueeves twice before Drought pulled his plan into action. That's the cycle I dug deeper into the game and basically did nothing else for an entire day LOL. I actually had someone close to me make me promise not to get back on for the rest of the night at one point. xD From that I studied the old cycles to determine if Drought was lying or Shqueeves and looking at every connection between every player. The only team that made sense to me with Drought as an elim had to include you, Joe, or Monster. I ruled out you and Monster slightly for different things at one point, but I've since reconsidered since:

1. Drought tried to lynch Arinian twice.

2. Ripple voted on Drought 3 different cycles.

3. I don't see a Monster/Devotary team because Monster almost got Devo lynched on cycle 2.

4. I don't really see a Devotary/Joe team when I think about it considering Devo voted Joe on cycle 3 and I doubt they'd bring attention to a teammate for no reason.

Looking back through I'm seeing more of a possibility for it to be Joe, Monster and/or Ecthelion. (But Ecth just voted Monster so I'd say probably it's Joe and Monster)

Joe

Devotary

[MonsterMetroid]

Y tu @BrightnessRadiant? What makes you so sure there are only 2 elims left? What is making you change your vote on devotary so late in the cycle? is it possibly because you only wanted a record of a vote on Devotary but now that it was close you need to protect a teammate? Well if so Congrats... cause I'm not sure if there is anyone online to stop a joe lynch from occuring.

[BrightnessRadiant]

Just now, MonsterMetroid said:

Y tu @BrightnessRadiant? What makes you so sure there are only 2 elims left? What is making you change your vote on devotary so late in the cycle? is it possibly because you only wanted a record of a vote on Devotary but now that it was close you need to protect a teammate? Well if so Congrats... cause I'm not sure if there is anyone online to stop a joe lynch from occuring.

Sure there is...Ripple is here too and so am I if you've got a good reason not to lynch Joe?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Monster-Thank you for explaining your suspicions.
Brightness-Thank you for removing your vote on me.

20 minutes left in cycle.

Vote Tally

Joe(4) Ripple, Arinian, Devotary, Brightness
Devotary(2) Monster, Joe
Monster(1) Ecthelion

I see that Ripple has come online. What do you think of the situation?

[MonsterMetroid]

2 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Sure there is...Ripple is here too and so am I if you've got a good reason not to lynch Joe?

I don't have a reason to not lynch joe... I mean joe provided lots of reasons to lynch him himself. But I do have a page of reasons to lynch Devotary in a post above if you would consider those

Edited March 7, 2018 by MonsterMetroid
added himself to my post

[RippleGylf]

Just got off of work, and stuff happened while I was gone, apparently. Monster definitely sticks out as an elim now, but I'll leave my vote on Joe since he's more of a surety.

Edited March 7, 2018 by RippleGylf
Redundancy

[BrightnessRadiant]

Just now, MonsterMetroid said:

I don't have a reason to not lynch joe... I mean joe provided lots of reasons to lynch him. But I do have a page of reasons to lynch Devotary in a post above if you would consider those

I read them, but considering I suspect you as well, they could just be you trying to save Joe

The more I think about it, the more I see that Devotary was quicker to vote Drought than you were and even was the one trying to come up with a plan to prove who was the elim awakener. And they even voted on Joe on one cycle before so I trust them for that a little too. All of your votes fit perfectly for an elim...even your vote on Drought was after he had 3 and was already headed down.

[MonsterMetroid]

 

1 minute ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

The more I think about it, the more I see that Devotary was quicker to vote Drought

devotary voted after I did on drought...

[BrightnessRadiant]

1 minute ago, MonsterMetroid said:

 

devotary voted after I did on drought...

Quote

Drought (7)- Shqueeves, Brightness, Devotary, Monster, Ripple, Arinian, Ecthelion
Shqueeves (2)- Drought, Joe

Is this out of order in the write-up?

[RippleGylf]

2 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Is this out of order in the write-up?

Yes, I'm pretty sure I was among the first to vote on Drought.